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（一）ETS政策抑制碳排放强度的直接效应
(1) The direct effect of ETS policies on curbing carbon emission intensity

产权理论提出明确的产权归属能够通过市场机制实现资源的最优配置，碳市场通过界定碳排放权归属，将原本属于公共环境资源的碳排放权转化为一种可交易的稀缺资源，将负外部性（企业碳排放对环境造成的损害）内部化为企业成本（沈洪涛等，2019[1]）。成本遵循效应将提升参与碳排放权交易企业的生产成本，进而迫使企业减少高碳排放产品的生产和出口，进而降低一国（地区）的总体碳排放强度。创新激励效应能够促进企业加大绿色技术创新投入，当技术创新所带来的减排收益通过碳市场交易被转化为可量化的市场价值，将进一步强化企业的创新动力（范庆泉等，2025[2]），该正向反馈效应将显著促进企业的低碳转型。此外，企业绿色技术水平的提升还能通过扩散效应（技术转让或溢出）推动整个行业的减排进程，降低全产业链的碳排放强度。从区域视角来看，无论创新激励或是成本遵循，都能降低区域总体碳排放强度，进而提出H1假设。
The theory of property rights proposes that clear property ownership can achieve the optimal allocation of resources through market mechanisms, and the carbon market transforms carbon emission rights that originally belonged to public environmental resources into a tradable scarce resource by defining the ownership of carbon emission rights, and internalizes negative externalities (the damage caused by corporate carbon emissions to the environment) into enterprise costs (Shen Hongtao et al., 2019 1]）。 The cost compliance effect will increase the production costs of enterprises participating in carbon emission trading, and then force enterprises to reduce the production and export of high-carbon emission products, thereby reducing the overall carbon emission intensity of a country (region). The incentive effect of innovation can promote enterprises to increase investment in green technology innovation, and when the emission reduction benefits brought by technological innovation are converted into quantifiable market value through carbon market transactions, it will further strengthen the innovation motivation of enterprises (Fan Qingquan et al., 2025 [2]. This positive feedback effect will significantly promote the low-carbon transition of enterprises. In addition, the improvement of the level of green technology of enterprises can also promote the emission reduction process of the entire industry through diffusion effect (technology transfer or spillover), and reduce the carbon emission intensity of the whole industry chain. From a regional perspective, both innovation incentives and cost compliance can reduce the overall carbon emission intensity of the region, and then the H1 hypothesis is proposed.

H1：碳排放权交易能够显著降低实施国（地区）的碳排放强度。
H1: Carbon emissions trading can significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of the implementing countries (regions).

（二）ETS政策抑制碳排放强度的间接效应
(2) The indirect effect of ETS policies on inhibiting carbon emission intensity

碳排放权交易降低区域碳排放强度的间接传递机制体现在：优化能源消费结构、激励绿色技术创新和促进绿色产品出口。首先，实施碳排放权交易能够促进可再生能源消费。通过设定碳排放配额，碳排放权交易政策提高了传统化石能源的使用成本（段茂盛，2018）[3]，进而激励企业投资或采用可再生能源，或通过市场激励促进可再生能源项目的开发和运营，例如核证自愿减排量（CERs）交易，能为可再生能源项目提供额外收入来源，进而激励企业增加对可再生能源的投入。区域可再生能源发电占比的提升能直接减少电力系统对化石能源的依赖，降低电力消耗的碳排放量（Ren等，2024）[4]，电力供给是当前各国（地区）的主要碳排放来源，其碳排放减少将显著降低各国（地区）的碳排放强度。因此，严格的ETS政策能促进一国（地区）从化石能源向可再生能源消费转型（Bai和Ru，2024）[63]。其次，碳排放权交易作为约束和激励并存的市场化环境政策工具，一方面政策实施将增加企业的合规成本，促使企业通过投资绿色技术创新来减少碳排放（吕娟等，2025）[5]。另一方面企业通过绿色技术创新，能在碳市场中获得超额收益，形成正向激励。碳排放权交易市场价格越高，碳市场通过价格信号来促进企业技术创新的动力越显著（张云霄，2024）[6]。最后，碳排放权交易在全球范围的广泛实施体现了全球绿色化的发展目标。从供给侧看，企业生产绿色产品在降低碳排放的同时还能获得碳市场补偿，进而降低企业生产成本，增强产品国际竞争力；从需求侧看，全球绿色化需求也将引导企业向绿色产品生产和出口转型。全球碳排放权交易从供需角度促进了绿色产品对高碳产品的替代，该替代效应能有效地降低一国（地区）的碳排放强度，尤其是在国际市场上，这种替代效应将显著降低全球的碳排放量（刘丹，2024）[7]。综上，提出假设2
The indirect transmission mechanism of carbon emission trading to reduce regional carbon emission intensity is reflected in optimizing the energy consumption structure, stimulating green technology innovation and promoting the export of green products. First, the implementation of carbon emissions trading can boost renewable energy consumption. By setting carbon emission allowances, carbon emission trading policies increase the cost of using traditional fossil fuels (Duan Maosheng, 2018), which in turn incentivizes companies to invest in or adopt renewable energy, or promotes the development and operation of renewable energy projects through market incentives, such as certified voluntary emission reduction (CERs) tradingRenewable energy projects provide an additional source of revenue, which in turn incentivizes companies to increase their investment in renewable energy. The increase in the proportion of regional renewable energy power generation can directly reduce the dependence of the power system on fossil energy and reduce the carbon emissions of electricity consumption (Ren et al., 2024).The reduction will significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of each country (region). Therefore, a strict ETS policy can facilitate a country's transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy consumption (Bai and Ru, 2024)63. Second, carbon emission trading is a market-oriented environmental policy tool with both constraints and incentives, and on the one hand, policy implementation will increase the compliance cost of enterprises and encourage enterprises to reduce carbon emissions by investing in green technology innovation (Lu Juan et al., 2025). On the other hand, through green technology innovation, enterprises can obtain excess returns in the carbon market, forming positive incentives. The higher the price of the carbon emission trading market, the more significant the incentive of the carbon market to promote enterprise technological innovation through price signals (Zhang Yunxiao, 2024). Finally, the widespread implementation of carbon emission trading around the world reflects the global development goal of greening. From the supply side, the production of green products by enterprises can reduce carbon emissions and obtain carbon market compensation, thereby reducing the production costs of enterprises and enhancing the international competitiveness of products; From the demand side, global green demand will also guide enterprises to transform to green product production and export. From the perspective of supply and demand, global carbon emission trading promotes the substitution of green products for high-carbon products, and this substitution effect can effectively reduce the carbon emission intensity of a country (region), especially in the international market, and this substitution effect will significantly reduce global carbon emissions (Liu Dan, 2024).。 In summary, hypothesis 2 is proposed

H2：碳排放权交易通过优化能源消费结构、激励绿色技术创新和扩大绿色产品出口，间接抑制实施国家（地区）的碳排放强度
H2: Carbon emission trading indirectly inhibits the carbon emission intensity of implementing countries (regions) by optimizing the energy consumption structure, stimulating green technology innovation and expanding the export of green products

（三）ETS政策抑制碳排放强度的调节效应
(3) The moderating effect of ETS policies on inhibiting carbon emission intensity

生态环境保护和经济发展相辅相成，人与自然和谐共生（邵帅等，2024）[8]，自然地理要素和社会经济要素在碳排放权交易抑制碳排放强度的过程中起到重要的调节作用，主要体现在：首先，自然地理要素的累积效应和沉降效应能够影响区域的碳吸收能力，进而调节碳排放权交易的减排效果。累积效应体现为各国（地区）自然资源依存度的差异，即：一国（地区）经济对自然资源开采、出口和利用的依赖程度[9]。自然资源依存度高的国家（地区），企业对资源价格波动高度敏感[10]，其经营业务过度依赖自然资源的开采和出口，面对ETS规制则更倾向于支付碳成本而非低碳转型，这种依赖性使得这些国家（地区）在实施ETS政策时面临更大的阻力，其碳市场价格信号传导失灵，尤其在发展中国家碳市场价格较低，ETS的减排激励不足以弥补企业对资源经济的依赖，进而抑制了ETS的碳减排效应。沉降效应体现为低海拔地区通常包含更丰富多样的自然环境，例如森林、草地、湿地、河流、湖泊等，保护和恢复低海拔地区的生态系统，可以显著增强区域的碳吸收能力（陈美球和严格，2021）[11]，进而通过沉降效应有效吸收和存储碳[12]，增强ETS的碳减排效果。
Ecological environmental protection and economic development complement each other, and man and nature coexist in harmony (Shao Shuai et al., 2024) [8], physical geographical factors and socio-economic factors play an important role in regulating the process of carbon emission trading to curb carbon emission intensity, which is mainly reflected in: first, The cumulative effect and subsidence effect of physical geographical factors can affect the carbon absorption capacity of the region, and then adjust the emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading. The cumulative effect is reflected in the difference in the dependence of countries (regions) on natural resources, that is, the degree of dependence of a country's (regional) economy on the extraction, export and utilization of natural resources. Countries with high dependence on natural resources, where companies are highly sensitive to fluctuations in resource prices10, operate excessively dependent on the extraction and export of natural resources, and are more inclined to pay carbon costs than low-carbon transitions in the face of ETS regulations (regions) face greater resistance in implementing ETS policies, whichThe carbon market price signal transmission failure, especially in developing countries, the carbon market price is low, and the emission reduction incentive of ETS is insufficient to compensate for the dependence of enterprises on the resource economy, which in turn inhibits the carbon emission reduction effect of ETS. The subsidence effect is reflected in the fact that low-altitude areas usually contain more diverse natural environments, such as forests, grasslands, wetlands, rivers, lakes, etc., and protecting and restoring ecosystems in low-altitude areas can significantly enhance the carbon absorption capacity of the region (Chen Meiqiu and Strict, 2021)11, and then effectively absorb and store carbon through the deposition effect 12. Enhance the carbon emission reduction effect of ETS.

其次，社会经济要素中的金融发展和经济发展水平将调节一国（地区）ETS的降碳能力，主要体现：第一，金融深化表现为市场的流动性提升、资源配置的优化以及金融工具创新等方面，这些因素叠加后将增强ETS的减排效果。具体而言，金融体系的完善通过扩大碳金融产品的市场规模和提升交易活跃度，使得碳价格能够更为准确地反映环境成本和市场供需关系（江红莉，2020）[13]，进而激励企业通过技术创新和减排行为主动降低碳成本，从而强化ETS的减排效果（牛华伟和曹玲玲，2024）[14]。随着金融支持体系的完善，资本将更多地流向绿色产业和高附加值产业，同时降低高污染高排放行业的融资门槛。这不仅提高了资源利用效率，也促进了经济结构的低碳转型。金融工具的创新也为ETS减排提供了重要支持（Qi S等，2024）[15]，多样化碳金融工具（如碳期货、碳期权等），丰富了碳权交易的实现方式，从而降低碳减排成本。第二，经济发展水平更高的国家能够更好地承担减排的成本，为清洁能源技术的研发和推广提供资金支持和制度保障，从而实现降碳减排。同时，高收入水平地区通常具有更强的环保意识、更高的政策执行能力以及更多的环保投入，这将激发碳权交易市场的减排潜力，进而对碳排放强度产生显著抑制（刘传恒等，2022）[16]。 综上，金融深化和国家收入水平提升是连接碳权交易市场发展和碳排放强度下降的重要调节变量，进而提出假设3a和3b
Secondly, the level of financial development and economic development among the socio-economic factors will adjust the carbon reduction capacity of a country's (regional) ETS, which is mainly reflected: first, Financial deepening is manifested in the improvement of market liquidity, the optimization of resource allocation, and the innovation of financial instruments, and the combination of these factors will enhance the emission reduction effect of ETS. Specifically, the improvement of the financial system enables carbon prices to more accurately reflect environmental costs and market supply and demand by expanding the market scale of carbon financial products and increasing trading activity (Jiang Hongli, 2020)13, thereby encouraging enterprises to actively reduce carbon costs through technological innovation and emission reduction behaviors, thereby strengthening the emission reduction effect of ETS (Niu Huawei and Cao Lingling, 2024）14。 With the improvement of the financial support system, more capital will flow to green industries and high value-added industries, and at the same time, the financing threshold for high-pollution and high-emission industries will be lowered. This not only improves the efficiency of resource utilization, but also promotes the low-carbon transformation of the economic structure. The innovation of financial instruments also provides important support for ETS emission reduction (Qi S et al., 2024)15, and the diversification of carbon financial instruments (such as carbon futures, carbon options, etc.) enriches carbon tradingways to achieve it, so as to reduce the cost of carbon abatement. Second, countries with higher levels of economic development can better bear the costs of emission reduction, and provide financial support and institutional guarantees for the research and development and promotion of clean energy technologies, so as to achieve carbon reduction and emission reduction. At the same time, high-income areas usually have stronger environmental awareness, higher policy implementation capacity, and more environmental protection investment, which will stimulate the emission reduction potential of the carbon trading market, which in turn will significantly inhibit carbon emission intensity (Liu et al., 2022). 16。 In summary, financial deepening and the improvement of national income level are important moderating variables connecting the development of carbon trading market and the decline of carbon emission intensity, and hypotheses 3a and 3b are proposed

H3a：自然地理要素的累积效应和沉降效应分别负向和正向调节ETS抑制碳排放强度的作用效果。
H3a: The cumulative effect and subsidence effect of physical geographic elements negatively and positively regulate the effect of ETS in inhibiting carbon emission intensity, respectively.

H3b：社会经济要素中的金融发展和经济发展水平能正向调节ETS抑制碳排放强度的作用效果。
H3b: The level of financial development and economic development among socio-economic factors can positively regulate the effect of ETS in inhibiting carbon emission intensity.

（四）ETS政策抑制碳排放强度的空间溢出效应
(4) The spatial spillover effect of ETS policies to curb carbon emission intensity

一国（地区）的碳减排政策可能会通过空间外部性影响邻国（地区）的碳排放强度（李杰和徐楠，2024）[17]，形成空间溢出效应，进而影响全球碳排放格局。碳排放权交易通过设定碳配额和市场交易，使参与企业承担高排放成本（张楠，2022）[18]，高污染企业倾向于将高碳产品生产和生产工序转移至环境规制较宽松的地区，以降低环境成本，维持企业利润（雷鹏飞等，2019）[19]。“碳泄漏”将导致邻近国家（地区）碳排放增加，破坏区域碳排放平衡，产生空间碳转移效应，不利于全球碳减排目标实现。因此，提出假设4。
The carbon emission reduction policy of one country (region) may affect the carbon emission intensity of neighboring countries (regions) through spatial externalities (Li Jie and Xu Nan, 2024)17, forming a spatial spillover effect, which in turn affects the global carbon emission pattern. Carbon emission trading enables participating enterprises to bear high emission costs by setting carbon allowances and market transactions (Zhang Nan, 2022) [18], High-polluting enterprises tend to shift the production and production processes of high-carbon products to areas with less stringent environmental regulations in order to reduce environmental costs and maintain corporate profits (Lei et al., 2019) [19]. "Carbon leakage" will lead to an increase in carbon emissions in neighboring countries (regions), undermine the regional carbon emission balance, and produce a spatial carbon transfer effect, which is not conducive to the realization of global carbon emission reduction goals. Therefore, hypothesis 4 is proposed.

H4：碳排放权交易引致的碳转移效应将增加周边国家（地区）的碳排放强度。
H4: The carbon transfer effect caused by carbon emission trading will increase the carbon emission intensity of neighboring countries (regions).

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