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幻灯片1:标题页  Slide 1: Title page

  • 标题:哪些因素影响了2024美国大选的投票率 Headline: What factors influenced turnout in the 2024 U.S. election
  • 副标题:基于不同视角的综合分析 Subheading: Comprehensive analysis based on different perspectives
  • 图片/背景:美国大选或投票相关的图片 Image/Background: Images related to the U.S. election or voting
幻灯片2:引言 Slide 2: Introduction
  • 简介:美国大选的重要性与历史背景 Introduction: The importance and historical background of the U.S. election
  • 全球影响力: Global Reach:
美国大选的结果对全球政治、经济与安全格局产生深远影响。作为世界上最具影响力的国家之一,美国的内政外交动向无疑对国际社会产生着举足轻重的影响。选举结果将直接影响全球在供应链经济安全、关键技术保护以及人工智能等领域的合作进程。此外,全球各地的美国盟友和伙伴正在为美国总统换届做准备,强调在安全事务上更加自力更生。美国总统大选的影响不仅限于国内,全球各国都在关注。当美国人民走向投票点时,他们的选择将对全球产生深远的影响。
The outcome of the U.S. election has far-reaching implications for the global political, economic, and security landscape. As one of the most influential countries in the world, the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States undoubtedly have a decisive impact on the international community. The election results will have a direct impact on the process of global cooperation in areas such as supply chain economic security, key technology protection, and artificial intelligence. In addition, U.S. allies and partners around the world are preparing for a change of U.S. president, emphasizing greater self-reliance on security matters. The impact of the U.S. presidential election is not limited to domestic countries, but is being watched by countries around the world. As the American people walk to the polls, their choices will have far-reaching global repercussions.

- 民主制度的体现: - Embodiment of Democracy:

美国大选是现代民主制度的重要体现,通过选举表达民意,实现政治权力的和平转移。自1787年美国宪法制定以来,选举人团制度便作为总统选举的重要组成部分被确立下来。当时,国父们设计这一制度的目的在于平衡各州之间的权力,确保人口较少的小州在总统选举中也能拥有一定的话语权。选举人团制度经历了多次争议与变革,最著名的案例莫过于2000年的布什诉戈尔案,此事件不仅揭示了选举人团制度下可能出现的复杂情况,也促使社会各界重新审视这一古老机制是否仍然适应现代社会的需求。
The U.S. election is an important embodiment of the modern democratic system, through which the will of the people is expressed and the peaceful transfer of political power is realized. Since the enactment of the U.S. Constitution in 1787, the Electoral College has been established as an important part of presidential elections. At the time, the Founding Fathers designed the system to balance power among states and ensure that smaller, less populous states would have a say in presidential elections. The Electoral College system has undergone many controversies and changes, most notably in Bush v. Gore in 2000, which not only revealed the complexities that can arise under the Electoral College, but also prompted all sectors of society to re-examine whether this ancient institution is still relevant to the needs of modern society.

- 政策制定与执行: - Policy Development & Implementation:

2024年美国大选投票进入倒计时阶段,选情焦灼、结果难料。选举的四种场景对美国乃至全球宏观经济的影响有显著差异,关键是政策落地情况。哈里斯与特朗普的政策比较显示,双方均在调整政策,部分领域实质上已形成共识,如加强移民和边境的管控、为居民减税、抗通胀的重要性、填补美加墨协议的漏洞、实现美国能源独立等。两党在关税、堕胎权、援乌和移民政策上仍存在分歧,这些政策差异将直接影响国家政策的制定和执行。
The countdown to the 2024 U.S. election has begun, and the election is anxious and the outcome is unpredictable. There are significant differences in the impact of the four election scenarios on the macroeconomy of the United States and even the world, and the key is the implementation of policies. A comparison of Harris and Trump's policies shows that both sides are adjusting their policies, and there is a solid consensus in some areas, such as strengthening immigration and border control, reducing taxes for residents, the importance of fighting inflation, filling the loopholes in the US-Canada-Mexico agreement, and achieving US energy independence. There are still differences between the two parties on tariffs, abortion rights, aid to Ukraine, and immigration policies, and these policy differences will directly affect the formulation and implementation of national policies.
  • 背景:2024年美国大选的特殊性 2024年美国大选具有几个显著的特殊性:
    Background: The peculiarities of the 2024 U.S. election The 2024 U.S. election has several notable peculiarities:
  • 非连续任期的总统当选:唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在2024年的选举中击败了民主党候选人、
    Non-consecutive presidential elections: Donald Trump defeated Democratic candidates in the 2024 election,
副总统卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris),成为美国历史上首位在非连续任期当选的总统,上一次是格罗弗•克利夫兰(Grover Cleveland)在19世纪。
Vice President Kamala Harris became the first president in U.S. history to be elected for non-consecutive terms, last in the 19th century by Grover Cleveland.
  • 首位被定罪的总统当选:特朗普在当选前被控多项州和联邦刑事指控,包括商业欺诈、隐藏向成人电影明星Stormy Daniels支付的封口费、离任时从白宫移除和隐藏机密文件、以及试图推翻2020年总统选举结果等,他成为了美国历史上首位被定罪的总统当选人。
    First President to be Convicted: Trump became the first president-elect in U.S. history to be convicted after being charged with multiple state and federal criminal charges before his election, including business fraud, concealing hush money payments to adult movie star Stormy Daniels, removing and hiding classified documents from the White House when he left office, and attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
  • 最昂贵和混乱的选举周期:2024年的总统选举被认为是近年来最昂贵和混乱的选举周期之一。这场选举不仅涉及了两位主要候选人之间的对决,还包括了对中东战争的争议性言论、对无子女女性和移民的争议性言论,以及在密歇根州等关键摇摆州的阿拉伯裔美国人社区中可能产生影响的中东战争背景。
    Most expensive and chaotic election cycle: The 2024 presidential election is considered one of the most expensive and chaotic in recent years. The election involved not only a showdown between the two main candidates, but also controversial rhetoric about the Middle East war, controversial rhetoric about childless women and immigrants, and the context of the Middle East war that could have an impact in the Arab American community in key swing states like Michigan.
  • 高投票率与共和党的胜利:尽管传统政治智慧认为共和党在高投票率的选举中难以获胜,但2024年的选举结果显示,高投票率反而有利于特朗普和共和党。超过1.53亿张选票被投出,接近2020年的158百万张选票,这是自一个多世纪前女性获得投票权以来投票率最高的选举。
    High turnout and Republican victory: Despite conventional political wisdom that Republicans struggle to win in high-turnout elections, the 2024 election results show that high turnout favors Trump and the Republican Party. More than 153 million ballots were cast, close to the 158 million votes cast in 2020, the highest turnout in an election since women gained the right to vote more than a century ago.
  • 选举结果的地理分布变化:与2020年相比,2024年共和党在每个州都赢得了更大比例的选票。例如,在纽约州,特朗普的支持率从2020年的 37.74 % 37.74 % 37.74%37.74 \% 上升到了2024年的 44.17 % 44.17 % 44.17%44.17 \% ,变化幅度为 6.43 % 6.43 % 6.43%6.43 \%
    Changes in the geographic distribution of election results: Republicans won a greater percentage of votes in every state in 2024 than in 2020. In New York State, for example, Trump's approval rating 37.74 % 37.74 % 37.74%37.74 \% rose from 2020 to 2024 6.43 % 6.43 % 6.43%6.43 \% , 44.17 % 44.17 % 44.17%44.17 \% with a change of .
  • 选举成本的增加:据OpenSecrets预测,2024年选举的总成本达到了159亿美元,超过了2020年的151亿美元。
    Increased election costs: OpenSecrets forecasts that the total cost of elections in 2024 will reach $15.9 billion, surpassing the $15.1 billion in 2020.
目的:为了分析影响投票率的各个因素 Purpose: To analyze the factors influencing the voter turnout
幻灯片3:2024美国大选概述 Slide 3: Overview of the 2024 U.S. Election
  • 选举制度:选举人团制度的介绍 Electoral system: An introduction to the Electoral College system
美国大选的选举人团制度是一个复杂而专业的过程,以下是其详细介绍:
The Electoral College system for U.S. elections is a complex and specialized process, and here's a detailed description of it:
选举人团制度概述 Overview of the Electoral College System
选举人团(Electoral College)是美国宪法中规定的一个间接选举总统和副总统的制度。根据这一制度,美国公民并不直接投票选举总统,而是投票选出代表他们意志的选举人,再由这些选举人投票选举总统和副总统。
The Electoral College is a system of indirectly electing the president and vice president as stipulated in the U.S. Constitution. Under this system, U.S. citizens do not vote directly for the president, but instead vote for electors who represent their will, who in turn vote for the president and vice president.

选举人团的组成 Composition of the Electoral College

选举人团共有 538 名选举人,这个数字等于美国国会议员的总数(100名参议员加上 435 名众议员)加上华盛顿特区的 3 名选举人。每个州的选举人数量与其在国会的代表人数相等,即每个州的选举人数量等于该州在众议院的议员数加上两名参议员。
The Electoral College has a total of 538 electors, a figure equal to the total number of U.S. congressmen (100 senators plus 435 representatives) plus 3 electors in Washington, D.C. The number of electors in each state is equal to the number of representatives in Congress, i.e., the number of electors in each state is equal to the number of members of the state in the House of Representatives plus two senators.
选举人团的运作 Operations of the Electoral College
选举人团的运作分为三个阶段: The operation of the Electoral College is divided into three phases:
  • 选择选举人:各州政党在大选前选出代表该党的选举人名单,这些选举人承诺在选举人团投票时支持该党的总统候选人。
    Electoral selection: Before the general election, each state party elects a list of electors representing the party who pledge to support the party's presidential candidate when the Electoral College votes.
  • 选举人投票:在大选结束后,各州的选举人会聚集在一起,根据该州的普选结果,为总统和副总统侯选人投票。
    Electoral voting: After the election, electors from each state gather to vote for the presidential and vice presidential candidates based on the results of the state's popular vote.
  • 国会计票: 选举人投票后, 国会将对这些投票进行计数, 确定最终的总统和副总统人选。
    National Counting Votes: After the electors vote, Congress will count those votes to determine the final presidential and vice presidential candidates.
选举人团投票的重要性 The importance of voting in the Electoral College
要赢得总统选举,候选人必须获得至少270张选举人票,即超过选举人团总票数的一半。在大多数州,如果一个候选人赢得了该州的普选,那么该州所有的选举人票都将归该候选人所有,这被称为"胜者全得"制度。然而,缅因州和内布拉斯加州则采用一种比例代表制度,即每个国会选区的胜者获得一张选举人票,而全州普选的胜者获得剩余的选举人票。
To win the presidential election, a candidate must obtain at least 270 electoral votes, or more than half of the total number of votes cast in the Electoral College. In most states, if a candidate wins the state's popular vote, all of the state's electoral votes go to that candidate, known as a "winner-takes-all" system. Maine and Nebraska, however, use a proportional representation system, whereby the winner of each congressional district gets one electoral vote, and the winner of the statewide popular vote gets the remaining electoral vote.

特殊情况 Special circumstances

如果没有任何候选人获得 270 张选举人票的多数, 那么将由众议院从得票最多的前三名候选人中选举总统,而副总统则由参议院选举。这种情况在美国历史上发生过两次,最近一次是在1800年的选举后,众议院选择了托马斯•杰斐逊作为总统。
If none of the candidates obtain a majority of 270 electoral votes, then the House of Representatives will elect the president from the top three candidates with the most votes, while the vice president will be elected by the Senate. This has happened twice in U.S. history, most recently after the 1800 election, when the House of Representatives chose Thomas Jefferson as president.

选举人团的变更 Change of Electoral College

根据最新的人口普查数据,各州的选举人票数可能会有所变化。例如,在2020年的人口普查后,德克萨斯州增加了两张选举人票,而其他几个州也有所增加或减少。
Based on the latest census data, the number of electoral votes in each state is subject to change. For example, after the 2020 census, Texas added two more electoral votes, while several other states also increased or decreased.
美国大选选举人团制度体现了美国联邦制度的特点,即旨在平衡各州与联邦政府之间的权力。
The Electoral College system in the U.S. general election embodies the characteristics of the U.S. federal system, which aims to balance power between the states and the federal government.
  • 选举流程:初选、党内提名到正式选举 Election process: primary, party nomination to formal election
  1. 初选阶段 (Primaries) Primaries
  • 提名候选人:各政党通过初选和党团会议(caucuses)来提名总统候选人。初选通常从1月持续到6月,各州根据自己的安排举行初选。
    Nominating candidates: Political parties nominate presidential candidates through primaries and caucuses. The primaries usually run from January to June, and each state holds primaries according to its own schedule.

2.全国党代会(National Conventions)
2. National Conventions

  • 正式提名:在初选结束后, 各政党在全国党代会上正式提名其总统候选人。这一过程不仅是确定候选人,也是展示候选人理念、吸引捐款和媒体关注的重要时刻。
    Official nominations: After the primaries, political parties formally nominate their presidential candidates at national party conventions. This process is not only to identify candidates, but also to showcase their ideas, attract donations and media attention.
  1. 全国普选(General Election) General Election