A new rural by-pass has been proposed for a small town, with two possible routes under consideration. Using the data sheet (which is specific to you) and the procedures in WebTAG (see the links below), undertake a cost-benefit analysis of these two mutually exclusive projects, comparing their capital and recurrent costs with costs and benefits deriving from:
有人提议为一个小镇修建一条新的农村支路，目前正在考虑两条可能的路线。请使用数据表（针对您的具体情况）和 WebTAG 中的程序（请参阅下面的链接），对这两个互不相容的项目进行成本效益分析，比较其资本成本和经常性成本以及以下方面的成本和效益：

Make and justify all other assumptions as necessary.
根据需要做出所有其他假设并说明理由。

1. Using MS Excel or similar[1] , calculate the PVC, PVB, NPV, BCR, IRR, FYRR and Payback Period for the two do-something options compared to the do-nothing option detailed on your data sheet for both the high and the low economic growth scenarios. Summarise these in a report along with sufficient text and details of the calculations made to explain what you have done and why. This should include a summary table that shows the main costs and benefits (in Present Value terms) for each year over the entire appraisal period. State which option should be chosen based on these criteria for each growth scenario and give reasons for your choice. Note that you are dealing with a variable trip matrix and that you should use the rule of half to account for generated traffic. [65% of marks]
1.使用 MS Excel 或类似软件[1]，计算在高经济增长情景和低经济增长情景下，两个 "有所作为 "方案与数据表中详细列出的 "无所作为 "方案相比的 PVC、PVB、NPV、BCR、IRR、FYRR 和投资回收期。在报告中总结这些内容，并附上足够的文字和计算细节，以解释您所做的工作和原因。报告中应包括一个汇总表，显示整个评估期内每年的主要成本和效益（按现值计算）。根据上述标准，说明在每种增长方案中应选择哪种方案，并说明选择的理由。请注意，您正在处理的是一个可变的行程矩阵，您应使用半数法则来计算所产生的交通量。[分数的 65］

2. Use sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which your results might be affected by optimism bias and test assumptions concerning construction costs, the value of time, the value of Greenhouse Gas emissions, project life and interest rates. [25% of marks]
2.使用敏感性分析来确定乐观偏差对结果的影响程度，并测试有关建筑成本、时间价值、温室气体排放价值、项目寿命和利率的假设。[分数的 25］

3. Suppose instead of assuming that all the vehicles were electric cars, it was assumed that all vehicles were petrol cars. Quantify the impacts of this change. Comment on the realism of either assumption. [10% of marks]
3.假设不假定所有车辆都是电动汽车，而是假定所有车辆都是汽油车。量化这一变化的影响。评论这两种假设的现实性。[10%分数] 4.

Your report should be 20 pages maximum. This page count should include tables and references but not the frontispiece or table of contents. Avoid reproducing tables from WebTAG, but make sure you indicate which section of WebTAG the procedures you are using come from. Also make sure you record your Scheme Number.
报告最多不超过 20 页。页数应包括表格和参考文献，但不包括插图或目录。避免复制 WebTAG 中的表格，但要确保注明所使用的程序来自 WebTAG 的哪个部分。同时确保您记录了您的计划编号。

Submission Deadline: Thursday 11th April 2024 by eAssignments.
提交截止日期：2024 年 4 月 11 日（星期四）通过电子作业提交。

Feedback will be given by Friday 17th May 2024.
反馈将于 2024 年 5 月 17 日星期五之前给出。

[1] Training on Excel is available via LinkedIn Learning: https://sotonac.sharepoint.com/teams/LinkedInLearningatSouthampton
[1] Excel 培训可通过 LinkedIn Learning 获得：https://sotonac.sharepoint.com/teams/LinkedInLearningatSouthampton。

This Coursework is designed to reflect the kind of task you might face as a Graduate Engineer or Planner. In the workplace, you may be expected to be given an assignment and the relevant guidance and then asked to work independently to achieve the task. In reality, you would be able to get advice from Expert Practitioners. This advice is presented below in the form of Frequently Asked Questions. Having digested this advice, you need to work out how to do the task in a time effective manner, without getting bogged down with the complexities that the guidance will contain. You then need to be able to reflect on what you have done.
本课程作业旨在反映您作为研究生工程师或规划师可能面临的任务类型。在工作场所，可能会给你一项任务和相关指导，然后要求你独立完成任务。在现实中，你可以从专家从业人员那里获得建议。下面以常见问题的形式介绍这些建议。在消化了这些建议后，您需要想出如何在有效的时间内完成任务，同时又不被指南所包含的复杂问题所困扰。然后，您需要对自己所做的工作进行反思。

Department for Transport (2011) The Transport Business Case.
运输部（2011 年）《运输业务案例》。

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transport-business-case

Highways Agency Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE)
公路局开业后项目评估 (POPE)

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140603113908/http://www.highways.gov.uk/our-road-network/managing-our-roads/improving-our-network/appraisal-and-evaluation/post-opening-project-evaluation-pope/

Highways England pages can be found here, including the 2016 meta report that includes up to 33 bypasses and a 2019 that evaluates 85 road schemes:
在这里可以找到英格兰公路局的网页，包括 2016 年的元报告，其中包括多达 33 个旁路和 2019 年的 85 个道路计划评估：

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/post-opening-project-evaluation-pope-of-major-schemes

The most recent POPE reports can be found on the National Highways website: https://nationalhighways.co.uk/publications/
最新的 POPE 报告可在国家公路网站上查阅： https://nationalhighways.co.uk/publications/

Website for Transport Analysis Guidance
运输分析指南网站

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-tag

Use November 2023 WebTAG Databook (beware of earlier versions).
使用 2023 年 11 月版 WebTAG 数据手册（注意早期版本）。

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tag-data-book

Adler, H.A (1987) Economic Appraisal of Transport Projects: A Manual with Case Studies. John Hopkins University Press.
Adler, H.A (1987) Economic Appraisal of Transport Projects：A Manual with Case Studies.约翰-霍普金斯大学出版社。

Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzilius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (2003). Megaprojects and Risk. An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge University Press.
Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzilius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (2003).Megaprojects and Risk.野心剖析》。剑桥大学出版社。

HM Treasury (2020) The Green Book. Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-governent
英国财政部（2020 年）《绿皮书》。https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-governent

Pearce, D. and Nash, C (1981) The Social Appraisal of Projects. A Text in Cost-Benefit Analysis. Macmillan, Basingstoke.
Pearce, D. and Nash, C (1981) The Social Appraisal of Projects.成本效益分析》。麦克米伦，贝辛斯托克。

Rogers, M. (2001) Engineering Project Appraisal. Blackwell. Chapter 7 onwards
Rogers, M. (2001) Engineering Project Appraisal.布莱克威尔出版社。第 7 章起

Snell, M. (1997) Cost-benefit Analysis for Engineers and Planners. Thomas Telford, London.
Snell, M. (1997) Cost-benefit Analysis for Engineers and Planners.托马斯-特尔福德，伦敦。

Willis, K., Garrod, G. and Harvey, D. (1998) A Review of Cost-Benefit Analysis as Applied to the Evaluation of New Road Proposals in the UK. Transportation Research D, 3, 3, 141-156.
Willis, K., Garrod, G. and Harvey, D. (1998) A Review of Cost-Benefit Analysis as Applied to the Evaluation of New Road Proposals in the UK.运输研究 D，3，3，141-156。

See also material on the Stubbington By-Pass on Blackboard.
另请参阅黑板上有关 Stubbington By-Pass 的资料。

JMP 9th February 2024.

CENV6016 Transport Economics

Cost-Benefit Analysis Coursework 2023/24
成本效益分析课程作业 2023/24

One of the intended learning outcomes of this coursework is for you to be able to use web-based guidance, which is becoming increasingly common in professional practice, in an appropriate manner. In practice, this skill can take a long time to achieve. The following gives you some hints on how to do this assignment, based on frequently asked questions (FAQs) by past students. Hopefully, this will enable you to do this coursework in a time effective manner.
本课程作业的预期学习成果之一是让您能够以适当的方式使用基于网络的指导，这在专业实践中越来越常见。在实践中，这项技能可能需要很长时间才能掌握。下面将根据以往学生的常见问题（FAQs），就如何完成这项作业给您一些提示。希望这能帮助您高效地完成本课程作业。

As background you should (speed) read WebTAG Units A1.1 (Cost-Benefit Analysis), A1.2 (Scheme Costs), A1.3 (User and Provider Impacts) and A3 (Environmental Impact Appraisal).
作为背景资料，您应该（快速）阅读 WebTAG 单元 A1.1（成本效益分析）、A1.2（计划成本）、A1.3（用户和供应商影响）和 A3（环境影响评估）。

How do I deal with construction costs spread over a number of years?
如何处理分几年支付的建筑费用？

Suppose capital costs of £90 million for a scheme are spread over the two years before the scheme opens (i.e. year 0 and year minus 1). Assume the costs are evenly spread over the two years. (Other assumptions could be used – in practice some cost may run into year 1).
假设某项计划的资本成本为 9000 万英镑，分摊到计划开始前的两年（即第 0 年和第 1 年）。假设成本在这两年内平均分摊。(也可采用其他假设--在实践中，某些成本可能会分摊到第 1 年）。

The present value of the construction costs is then 45/(1.035)-1 + 45/(1.035)0 = 46.575 +45 = £91.575 million. However, this is in 2010 prices and will need to be converted to 2030 prices, as below.
建筑成本的现值为 45/(1.035)-1 + 45/(1.035)0 = 46.575 +45 = 9,157.5 万英镑。然而，这是 2010 年的价格，需要转换为 2030 年的价格，如下所示。

How do I change the Value of Time over time?
如何随时间改变时间值？

WebTAG Data Book Table A1.3.5 shows that the all-week Value of Time for an average car is £10.79 per hour but this is in 2010 prices and values (income levels).
WebTAG 数据手册表 A1.3.5 显示，一辆普通汽车的全周时间价值为每小时 10.79 英镑，但这是按 2010 年的价格和价值（收入水平）计算的。

To convert to 2030 prices, use an inflation index such as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) based GDP Deflator given in the Annual Parameters table in the WebTAG Data Book. The 2010 index is given as 100 and the 2030 index as 158.93, i.e. prices are forecast to have gone up by 58.93% over 20 years or over 2.3% per annum. The Value of Time should therefore be increased to £17.15 so it is in 2030 prices (10.79 � 1.5893).
要换算成 2030 年的价格，请使用通货膨胀指数，如《WebTAG 数据手册》中年度参数表给出的基于 CPI（消费价格指数）的 GDP 平减指数。2010 年的指数为 100，2030 年的指数为 158.93，即预测 20 年内物价上涨 58.93%，年均涨幅超过 2.3%。因此，时间价值应增加到 17.15 英镑，以 2030 年的价格计算（10.79 � 1.5893）。

(Note this (and other features) can be automated using the User Parameters tab – but be careful).
(请注意，可以使用 "用户参数 "选项卡自动执行此功能（以及其他功能），但要小心）。

You then need to adjust this to 2030 values (and beyond), given that the Value of Time increases in proportion to annual income. The Annual Parameters table gives a Work & Non-Work VoT Index (for modelling purposes only). This is 104.88 in 2010 and 125.57 in 2030, suggesting a growth in real VoT of 19.73%[2] . To get the Value of Time in to 2030 prices and values multiply £17.15 by 1.1973 to get £20.53.
考虑到时间价值与年收入成正比增长，您需要将其调整到 2030 年的数值（甚至更高）。年度参数表给出了工作和非工作时间价值指数（仅供建模之用）。2010 年为 104.88，2030 年为 125.57，表明实际 VoT 增长了 19.73%[2]。将 17.15 英镑乘以 1.1973 即可得出 20.53 英镑的 2030 年价格和价值。

For future years, the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) assumes a long-term growth rate of 1.5% per annum. This is consistent with the assumptions concerning the social time preference rate that determine the test discount rate. Hence in 2031 (the first year of operation) the Value of Time should be increased to £20.84 (20.53 x 1.015) and so on. Note that this procedure was only introduced in July 2021.
对于未来几年，预算责任办公室（OBR）假设长期增长率为每年 1.5%。这与决定测试贴现率的社会时间偏好率假设一致。因此，在 2031 年（运行的第一年），时间价值应增加到 20.84 英镑（20.53 x 1.015），以此类推。请注意，这一程序在 2021 年 7 月才引入。

[2] Note that the Annual Parameters table gives the average (real) GDP per person index as 131.44 in 2010 and 157.37 in 2030 (where 100 = 1990). This implies real income growth per person of around 19.73% which is the same as the increase in the VOT index.
[2] 请注意，年度参数表给出的人均国内生产总值（实际）指数 2010 年为 131.44，2030 年为 157.37（其中 100 = 1990 年）。这意味着人均实际收入增长率约为 19.73%，与 VOT 指数的增幅相同。

Fuel costs for electric cars are calculated assuming an energy consumption parameter value of 0.221 kWh per kilometre (Table A1.3.8), but this is a 2015 value and will need to be adjusted for actual and expected efficiency gains (Table A1.3.10). Road electricity costs are given in Table 1.3.7 (but are in 2010 prices and will need to be adjusted). Fuel costs for electric cars in pence per km are given by Tables A1.3.12 (for Work trips) and A1.3.13 (for Non-work trips). Again, they are in 2010 prices and will need to be updated.
电动汽车燃料成本的计算假定能耗参数值为每公里 0.221 千瓦时（表 A1.3.8），但这是 2015 年的数值，需要根据实际和预期的效率提高进行调整（表 A1.3.10）。表 1.3.7 列出了道路电力成本（但按 2010 年价格计算，需要进行调整）。表 A1.3.12（工作出行）和 A1.3.13（非工作出行）列出了电动汽车的燃料成本（便士/公里）。同样，它们也是 2010 年的价格，需要更新。

Non-fuel cost are calculated using Table A1.3.14, distinguishing between Work and Non-work trips. Adjust for indirect taxation where relevant. Assume these costs are constant over time but convert into 2030 prices.
非燃料成本按表 A1.3.14 计算，区分工作和非工作出行。根据相关间接税进行调整。假设这些成本在一段时间内保持不变，但换算成 2030 年的价格。

How do I quantify and value the emissions of Greenhouse Gases?
如何量化和评估温室气体排放量？

Table A3.3. gives the emissions of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2eq) in kg per kWh of electricity. Table A3.4 gives the monetary cost of CO2eq (in £ per tonne). Use the central value and adjust to 2030 prices.
表 A3.3 列出了每千瓦时电力的二氧化碳当量 (CO2eq) 排放量，单位为千克。表 A3.4 给出了 CO2eq 的货币成本（单位：英镑/吨）。使用中心值并根据 2030 年的价格进行调整。

What do I assume about maintenance costs of the old road?
老路的维护费用如何估算？

Assume the maintenance costs of the old(er) road are unchanged and can therefore be ignored. The maintenance costs per km per annum just refer to the additional costs due to the new (modern) road. They need to be converted to 2030 prices.
假设旧（旧）公路的维护成本不变，因此可以忽略不计。每年每公里的维护成本仅指因新（现代）道路而增加的成本。需要将其转换为 2030 年的价格。

For each year i, calculate the Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) and the Journey Time (JT) for the old road before the new road is opened (ob), the old road after the new road is opened (oa) and the new road (n). Calculate the Generalised Costs (GC) as VOC + (V x JT) where V = value of time.
对于每一年 i，计算新道路开通前老路 (ob)、新道路开通后老路 (oa) 和新道路 (n) 的车辆运营成本 (VOC) 和行程时间 (JT)。计算一般化成本 (GC)，即 VOC + (V x JT)，其中 V = 时间值。

The rule of half in each year is given by ½ (GCbi – GCai) (Qbi + Qai) where b and a denote before the new road and after the new road respectively and Q denotes the traffic volume.
每年减半的规则为 ½ (GCbi - GCai) (Qbi + Qai)，其中 b 和 a 分别表示新建道路之前和之后，Q 表示交通流量。

In the before situation, GCb = GCob (as only the old road open). Similarly Qb = Qob. The after situation is a bit more complex as we have two roads to consider. Let Qa = Qoa + Qn. The weighted average Generalised Cost can then be calculated as: GCa= (Qoa GCoa + Qn GCn)/ (Qoa + Qn).
在之前的情况下，GCb = GCob（因为只有老路通车）。同样，Qb = Qob。之后的情况要复杂一些，因为我们要考虑两条路。让 Qa = Qoa + Qn。加权平均通用成本的计算公式为GCa= (Qoa GCoa + Qn GCn)/ (Qoa + Qn)。

Using this notation the long hand rule of half is:
用这种符号表示半数的长手法则是

½ (GCob – [(Qoa GCoa + Qn GCn)/ (Qoa + Qn)])( Qob + Qoa + Qn). (Equation 1)

Note this will give a quite different result from just comparing the total generalised cost of trips in the before situation and after situation, which is an incorrect approach:
请注意，这样得出的结果与只比较之前情况和之后情况下的一般化出行总成本是完全不同的，后者是一种不正确的方法：

GCob Qob – (GCoa Qoa + GCn Qn) (Equation 2).

The following illustrative example might help. Let Qob = 10,000, Qoa = 3,000 and Qn = 9,000. There has been a 20% growth in traffic because of the new road.
下面的示例可能会有所帮助。假设 Qob = 10,000，Qoa = 3,000，Qn = 9,000。由于新建了一条公路，交通量增长了 20%。

Suppose Gob = £4.50, GCoa = £4.30 and GCn = £3.90. Then GCa = [(4.30 x 3,000) + (3.90 x 9,000)]/12,000= 4.00.
假设 Gob = 4.50 英镑，GCoa = 4.30 英镑，GCn = 3.90 英镑。那么 GCa = [(4.30 x 3,000) + (3.90 x 9,000)]/12,000= 4.00。

We can then write Equation 1 as ½ (4.5 – 4.0) (22,000) = £5,500 per day.
因此，我们可以将公式 1 写成 ½ (4.5 - 4.0) (22,000) = 每天 5,500 英镑。

We can write Equation 2 as (4.5 x 10,000) – (4.0 x 12,000) = 45,000 – 48,000 = -£3,000 per day
我们可以将等式 2 写成 (4.5 x 10,000)-(4.0x12,000)=45,000-48,000=-3,000 英镑/天

Equation 2 underestimates the benefits by £8,500 per day. This underestimate can be shown to be equivalent to:
等式 2 低估了每天 8 500 英镑的收益。这一低估可以证明相当于

(Qa - Qb) GCa + ½ (Qa - Qb) (GCb - GCa) = (12,000 -10,000) 4.00 + ½ (12,000 – 10,000) (4.50 – 4.00) = 8,000 + ½ (2,000) (0.50) = 8,500
(Qa - Qb) GCa + ½ (Qa - Qb) (GCb - GCa) = (12,000 -10,000) 4.00 + ½ (12,000 - 10,000) (4.50 - 4.00) = 8,000 + ½ (2,000) (0.50) = 8,500

However, note that you need to be careful about the treatment of non-work, non-fuel VOC in the Rule of Half, which is based on perceived costs - see Unit 1.3, paragraphs 5.1.15 and 5.1.16.
但是，请注意，在半数规则中处理非工作、非燃料挥发性有机化合物时需要谨慎，因为半数规则是以感知成本为基础的--见第 1.3 单元，第 5.1.15 和 5.1.16 段。

How do I incorporate appraisal optimism into my sensitivity analysis?
如何将评估乐观主义纳入敏感性分析？

See TAG Unit A1.2, especially the section on optimism bias (section 3.5) and Table 8.
见 TAG 单元 A1.2，特别是乐观偏差部分（第 3.5 节）和表 8。

For electric cars, the only indirect tax paid is 5% VAT for non-work electricity costs (=fuel costs) and an assumed 19% indirect tax for non-fuel costs. However, because the by-pass is longer, motorists will be paying more in electricity costs than otherwise would be the case (including the indirect tax). This additional expenditure would raise indirect tax of 19% (the indirect tax correction factor) if spent elsewhere in the economy and accounting for this diverted expenditure will mean Government will incur a disbenefit. This disbenefit to Government should be subtracted from the Transport User Benefits calculated using the Rule of Half.
对电动汽车而言，唯一的间接税是 5%的非工作电力成本（=燃料成本）增值税和 19%的非燃料成本间接税。然而，由于旁路较长，驾驶者所支付的电费（包括间接税）将高于其他情况。如果将这笔额外开支用于其他经济领域，将产生 19% 的间接税（间接税修正系数）。政府的这一损失应从使用减半规则计算的交通用户收益中减去。

Appendix A.5 of TAG Unit A1.3 gives the detailed formula where:
TAG 单元 A1.3 附录 A.5 列出了详细的计算公式：

t = 0.19

tF’ = rate of indirect tax on electricity as an intermediate good = 0.
tF' = 作为中间产品的电力的间接税率 = 0。

tF  = rate of indirect tax on electricity as a final consumption good = 0.05 (given VAT is 5%).
tF = 电力作为最终消费品的间接税率 = 0.05（考虑到增值税为 5%）。

tN’ = rate of indirect tax on non-fuel vehicle operating costs as an intermediate good = 0.
tN' = 作为中间产品的非燃料车辆运营成本的间接税率 = 0。

tN = rate of indirect tax on non-fuel vehicle operating costs as a final consumption good = 0.19.
tN = 作为最终消费品的非燃料车辆运营成本的间接税率 = 0.19。

Work trips may be considered an intermediate good and Non-work trips a final consumption good.
工作出行可被视为中间产品，而非工作出行则是最终消费产品。

Note this adjustment is very different if the fuel is petrol as there is a substantial fuel duty and VAT is 20%. Government would likely gain indirect tax income as a result of the new road.
需要注意的是，如果燃料是汽油，这种调整就会非常不同，因为燃油税很高，增值税为 20%。政府可能会因新建道路而获得间接税收入。

Yes – in real world applications both miles per hour and kilometres per hour are used. Mean speeds are usually below the limits because of congestion, in part due to junction delays.
是的，在实际应用中，每小时英里数和每小时公里数都会用到。平均速度通常低于限值，原因是交通拥堵，部分原因是路口延误。

Cost-benefit analysis is usually based on annual totals. You should multiply the AADT (Average Annual Daily Traffic) by an annualisation factor (such as 365.25). This should then be used in the rule of half calculations. Your results should be in £, with thousands clearly demarcated by comma separators.
成本效益分析通常以年度总量为基础。您应将 AADT（年均日交通流量）乘以年化系数（如 365.25）。然后将其用于折半计算。计算结果应以英镑为单位，并用逗号分隔，以千为单位。

The spreadsheet that underpins your calculations will not be assessed directly and therefore this is up to you. However, you need to design your spreadsheet so that you can easily identify the calculations you have made. You might want to start with separate Work Sheets for your calculations for Options 0, A and B and then Work Sheets that compare Option A with Option 0 and Option B with Option 0. Note Options A and B will include data for both the old and new road. To links these sheets see: https://www.wikihow.com/Link-Sheets-in-Excel
您的计算所依据的电子表格不会直接接受评估，因此这取决于您。但是，您需要设计电子表格，以便于识别您所做的计算。您可能需要为方案 0、A 和 B 的计算设计单独的工作表，然后将方案 A 与方案 0、方案 B 与方案 0 进行比较。要链接这些工作表，请参阅： https://www.wikihow.com/Link-Sheets-in-Excel

In the main, yes. This is one of the main elements of the coursework. You will find that your data sheet, in combination with the WebTAG data book and the coursework instructions, generates a large volume of data.
基本上是的。这是课程作业的主要内容之一。您会发现，您的数据表与 WebTAG 数据手册和课程作业说明相结合，会产生大量数据。

No, you are working in 2030 (real) prices but then in forecast year values (for 2031 and beyond).
不，您是按 2030 年（实际）价格计算的，但又是按预测年值（2031 年及以后）计算的。