Contents 内容

Definition 定义

No single, clear-cut definitions
没有单一、明确的定义

• All types of instruments that intend to structurally improve the performance of the domestic business sector
  旨在从结构上改善国内业务部门绩效的所有类型的工具

  • Does not necessarily focus on manufacturing
    不一定专注于制造

• A vast set of policies
  一系列庞大的政策

  • Competition policy 竞争政策
  • Tax policy 税收政策
  • and trade, investment policy
    和贸易、投资政策

Macroeconomic policies 宏观经济政策

• Do not fall within industrial policies
  不属于产业政策范围
• Address the business cycle
  应对商业周期
  • not the structural performance of the business sector
    不是商业部门的结构性表现

Other polices 其他政策

are excluded from IP 被排除在IP之外

• Social 社会的
• education, 教育，
• housing 住房
• and health policies. 和卫生政策。

Horizontal and targeted policies
横向和有针对性的政策

There is a standard distinction between horizontal and targeted (or “vertical”) industrial policies.
横向产业政策和定向（或“纵向”）产业政策之间存在标准区别。

Horizontal policies are available to all firms
所有企业均可享受横向政策

Irrespective of 不论

• Activity 活动
• Technology 技术
• Or location 或地点

e.g. R&D tax credits 例如研发税收抵免

Targeted policies 针对性政策

are restricted to a subset of eligible firms
仅限于符合条件的公司的子集

• Subsidy for specific products
  特定产品补贴
• Or place-based policies 或者基于地方的政策

Ex-ante 事前

Horizontal policies is not restricted to specific sectors
横向政策不限于特定行业

• Disproportionally benefit a small number of sectors or firms.
  少数部门或公司受益匪浅。

• R&D tax credits mostly concern R&D intensive sectors
  研发税收抵免主要涉及研发密集型行业

Industrial policies in practice
产业政策实践

• Policy instruments 政策工具
• Industrial strategies 产业战略

Policy instruments 政策工具

are defined as tools used by policymakers to affect performance outcomes
被定义为政策制定者用来影响绩效结果的工具

• R&D grants 研发补助金
• Training programs 培训项目
• Public procurement 公共采购

Industrial strategies 产业战略

a consistent and articulated group of policy instruments designed in order to reach specific policy objectives
为实现具体政策目标而设计的一组一致且明确的政策工具

• an artificial intelligence (AI) leadership strategy can combine
  人工智能 (AI) 领导力战略可以结合
  • R&D grants 研发补助金
  • training programmes 培训计划
  • innovative public procurement
    创新公共采购

A fictitious example 一个虚构的例子

Conceptual framework 概念框架

Supply-side instruments 供应方工具

Polices that 政策

• Affect efficiency within firms
  影响企业内部的效率
• Affect the allocation of production factors between firms
  影响企业之间生产要素的配置

Within instruments 仪器内

• R&D tax credits or subsidies
  研发税收抵免或补贴
• Vocational and on-the-job training
  职业和在职培训

Between instruments 仪器之间

• The reallocation of production factors (capital and labour) towards the most productive uses
  将生产要素（资本和劳动力）重新分配到最具生产力的用途
• Entrepreneurship policies
  创业政策
• Intellectual property protection
  知识产权保护

Demand-side instruments 需求方工具

• Product subsidy 产品补贴
• Public procurement 公共采购
• Carbon pricing 碳定价

Governance 治理

is regarded as a necessary enabler of successful policy interventions
被视为成功政策干预的必要推动因素

Coordinate 协调

• The business sector 商业部门
• The public sector 公共部门
• And research institutions
  及研究机构

Industrial Policy and Policy Instrument
产业政策和政策工具

Scope and instruments 范围和工具

• Within instruments typically feature in both types of policies
  工具内通常包含两种类型的政策
• Between instruments are more likely horizontal
  仪器之间更有可能是水平的
• Demand-side instruments are more likely targeted
  需求方工具更有可能成为目标
  • Promote production and consumption simultaneously
    生产与消费同步促进

Sectoral strategies 部门战略

Either target a sector or a group of interlinked sectors
针对一个部门或一组相互关联的部门

• Firms are eligible based on their activity
  公司根据其活动是否符合资格

Aim

• At increasing innovation and productivity growth
  不断提高创新和生产力增长
• At inclusiveness 在包容性
  • by targeting sectors that concentrate low- or middle-wage workers
    针对集中低薪或中等工资工人的行业

Rationale 基本原理

New arguments are emerging in the recent literature
最近的文献中不断出现新的论点

Learning-by-doing 边干边学

Sectoral productivity increases with experience
部门生产力随着经验的增加而提高

• Also referred to as the infant industry argument in the trade literature
  在贸易文献中也称为婴儿工业论点

Empirical evidence 经验证据

is mixed 是混合的

When appropriate, still 适当的时候，还是

• Justifies temporary public support only
  仅证明临时公共支持的合理性
• Moral hazard 道德风险
  • The incentive to become competitive is weak
    提高竞争力的动力较弱
  • Firms continue receiving support otherwise.
    否则，企业将继续获得支持。

External economies of scale
外部规模经济

imply that firm productivity increases with sector size (as opposed to firm size)
意味着企业生产率随着部门规模（而不是企业规模）的增加而增加

• A wedge between the public and private returns to investment
  公共和私人投资回报之间的差距
• Subsidizing the sector  补贴该行业
  • Increase its size can improve the efficiency of the economy (Chipman, 1970)
    扩大规模可以提高经济效率（Chipman，1970）

Empirical evidence 经验证据

• Insufficient to identify the sectors that are subject to external economies of scale
  不足以识别受外部规模经济影响的部门

  • Bartelme et al. (2019) find evidence of external economies of scale in all 2-digit sectors
    巴特尔梅等人。 (2019) 在所有两位数行业中找到外部规模经济的证据
    • But they are limited 但它们是有限的
    • Gains from an optimal industrial policy are small
      最优产业政策的收益很小
  • Pons-Benaiges (2017) finds similar results
    Pons-Benaiges (2017) 发现了类似的结果
    • The post-WWII Japanese industrial policy is positively correlated with the external returns to scale
      二战后日本产业政策与外部规模报酬正相关

Informational externalities
信息外部性

Early investors 早期投资者

• Reveal sector-specific information
  揭示特定行业的信息

Subsequent investors 后续投资者

• Better assess the risk-return profile of the investments
  更好地评估投资的风险回报状况

Followers benefit from the risk having been taken by first entrants, which should therefore be supported
追随者受益于先行者所承担的风险，因此应该得到支持

Competition creation 竞赛创作

Industries with barriers to entry
有进入壁垒的行业

• Large fixed costs, network effects, regulatory obstacles or incumbency advantages
  巨大的固定成本、网络效应、监管障碍或现有优势
• Private incentives to enter may be insufficient
  私人进入的激励可能还不够
• Supporting firms to enter
  支持企业入驻
  • can be welfare improving 可以改善福利

IP situations 知识产权情况

• The monopolist is a foreign firm
  垄断者是外国公司
• And the domestic government wants to create a national champion
  而国内政府想要打造一个全国冠军

Negative externalities abroad
国外的负外部性

• Harm foreign firms 损害外国企业
• Duplicates fixed costs at the global level
  在全球范围内重复固定成本
  • and may lower the overall efficiency of the industry
    并可能降低行业整体效率

(Vital) Upstream sectors （重要）上游行业

In value chains, the productivity of upstream sectors has an impact on the performance of downstream sectors
在价值链中，上游部门的生产率对下游部门的绩效产生影响

• May call for government support
  可能需要政府支持
• But unclear why upstream sectors would under-invest
  但尚不清楚为什么上游行业投资不足

Economic resilience 经济韧性

• Firms directly benefit from their own resilience and thus have intrinsic incentives to invest in this direction
  企业直接受益于自身的韧性，因此有内在的动力朝这个方向投资

• Publicly supporting sectoral resilience could outweigh its costs
  公开支持部门复原力可能会超过其成本

But

• Optimal level of public support for resilience enhancement is unknown
  公众对增强复原力的支持的最佳水平尚不清楚
• Firms, however, can face moral hazard and have little incentives to invest in resilience against some types of shocks
  然而，企业可能面临道德风险，并且没有动力投资于抵御某些类型冲击的抵御能力

Coordination failures 协调失败

Some projects may require several (compatible) simultaneous investments.
有些项目可能需要多个（兼容的）同时投资。

• Complex products may need a vast network of suppliers
  复杂的产品可能需要庞大的供应商网络

• Governments should step in through exchanges of information and cooperation between the stakeholders
  政府应通过利益相关者之间的信息交流和合作来介入

Mission-oriented strategies
以使命为导向的战略

Differ from other strategies
与其他策略的不同之处

They are ‘transformation-oriented’
他们“以转型为导向”

• Address the direction of innovation
  明确创新方向
• rather than its level 而不是它的水平

Four rationales 四个理由

can justify the use of mission-oriented policies
可以证明使用以任务为导向的政策的合理性

• Social benefits 社交好处
• Coordination failures 协调失败
• Social acceptability 社会接受度
• Regulatory uncertainty / imperfect commitment
  监管不确定性/承诺不完善

Social benefits 社交好处

In addition to the traditional knowledge: spillovers
除了传统知识：溢出效应

• National security or sustainable growth
  国家安全或可持续增长
• There are paths in economic growth that are preferable to others because they provide a higher level of well-being
  有些经济增长路径比其他路径更可取，因为它们提供了更高水平的福祉

Coordination failures 协调失败

A mission requires simultaneous investments occurring in different industries
一项使命需要在不同行业同时进行投资

• Governments should step in through exchanges of information and cooperation between the stakeholders
  政府应通过利益相关者之间的信息交流和合作来介入

Social acceptability 社会接受度

A political economy argument in favour of mission-oriented policies (Bloom, Van Reenen and Williams, 2019)
支持使命导向政策的政治经济学论证（Bloom、Van Reenen 和 Williams，2019）

• Make it more acceptable to invest additional resources in new technologies.
  让人们更容易接受在新技术上投入更多资源。
• Conducive to higher and wider stakeholder engagement
  有利于利益相关者更高、更广泛的参与
• Facilitate the pooling of resources of different ministries, enabling more ambitious and complex projects
  促进不同部委的资源汇集，实现更雄心勃勃、更复杂的项目

Technology-focused strategies
以技术为中心的战略

aim at fostering innovation, diffusion and, productivity
旨在促进创新、扩散和生产力

Two types of arguments 两种类型的参数

• External learning-by-doing or informational externalities
  外部边做边学或信息外部性
  • Particularly severe on new technologies
    对新技术尤其严厉
  • First-mover disadvantage in emerging fields or technologies
    新兴领域或技术的先发劣势
• Upstream sectors 上游行业

Place-based strategies 基于地点的策略

aim at affecting the regional distribution of economic activity
旨在影响经济活动的区域分布

• Inclusiveness, fairness and/or equality objectives
  包容性、公平和/或平等目标

The rationale for place-based policies
基于地方的政策的理由

stems from the Marshallian externalities：
源于马歇尔外部性：

Geographical agglomeration
地理集聚

• Sharing 分享
• Matching 匹配
• And learning 和学习

Practice: cluster policies
实践：集群策略

bring together research institutions, large firms, start-ups and SMEs to
汇集研究机构、大公司、初创企业和中小企业

• Create innovation clusters
  打造创新集群

Such as 例如

• Canada (Innovation Superclusters Initiative 2018)
  加拿大（2018 年创新超级集群计划）
• the United States (Manufacturing USA21 – 2012)
  美国（美国制造业21 – 2012）
• and many European countries
  以及许多欧洲国家
  • go-Cluster, Spitzencluster and Zukunftcluster (go集群、前沿集群、未来集群) initiatives in Germany
    德国的 go-Cluster、Spitzencluster 和 Zukunftcluster (go 集群、前沿集群、未来集群) 举措
  • Pôles de compétitivité (竞争力集群) in France
    法国的竞争资源

Place-based policies: empirics
因地制宜的政策：经验主义

Past policies were found to be little effective
过去的政策被认为收效甚微

• Uyarra and Ramlogan (2016)
  乌亚拉和拉姆洛根 (2016)

New wave of cluster policies may be different
新一波集群政策或将有所不同

• Hassine and Mathieu (2020)
  哈辛和马蒂厄 (2020)
• Bartik (2020) 巴蒂克 (2020)
• Mar and Massard (2021) 马尔和马萨德 (2021)

Types of IP 知识产权类型

Different types of strategies may in some instances overlap
在某些情况下，不同类型的策略可能会重叠

Complementarities between policy instruments
政策工具之间的互补性

justify the use of industrial strategies
证明产业战略使用的合理性

• the importance of designing industrial policy strategies that include several instrument types
  设计包括多种工具类型的产业政策战略的重要性
• mirrors the co-existence of multiple market failures
  反映了多种市场失灵的并存
• knowledge spillovers, financial markets, labour markets, myopia, uncertainty
  知识溢出、金融市场、劳动力市场、短视、不确定性

Framework policies 框架政策

notably competition and trade policies
尤其是竞争和贸易政策

• complementary to industrial policy
  与产业政策互补
• key in enabling the most productive firms to grow
  使最具生产力的企业成长的关键
• affect the allocation of resources and their reallocation between firms
  影响资源配置及其在企业之间的重新配置

Targeted industrial strategies
有针对性的产业战略

can direct technological change and growth, but should be handled with care
可以指导技术变革和增长，但应谨慎处理

• there are clear rationales in favour of targeted industrial strategies
  有明确的理由支持有针对性的产业战略
• but lack of conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of targeted industrial policy instruments
  但缺乏确凿证据证明有针对性的产业政策工具的有效性

Pitfalls of targeted industrial strategies
有针对性的产业战略的陷阱

Access to information  获取信息

• Governments should pick the right target
  政府应选择正确的目标

Rent-seeking  寻租

• Resources may be wasted in the lobbying process
  游说过程可能会浪费资源
• Outcome of the lobbying game is not necessarily efficient
  游说游戏的结果并不一定有效
• The ability to stop projects that are ailing
  停止有问题的项目的能力

General equilibrium effects
一般均衡效应

• By investing in a policy project, one reduces the availability of public funds, of researchers, of capital, etc.
  通过投资一项政策项目，人们会减少公共资金、研究人员、资本等的可用性。

Demand-side instruments 需求方工具

can contribute to transformative industrial change
可以为革命性的工业变革做出贡献

• Demand side policies may be less distortive than targeted supply-side policies
  需求方政策的扭曲性可能低于有针对性的供应方政策
  • Renewable electricity price subsidy
    可再生能源电价补贴
  • Public procurement 公共采购

Emphasis on evaluation and regular reassessments of targeted policies
重视针对性政策的评估和定期重新评估

the available evidence remains scarce and mainly focused on the effect of investment incentives
现有证据仍然很少，主要集中在投资激励措施的效果上

Questions to answer 需要回答的问题

• What is the causal impact of the targeted policy instruments
  目标政策工具的因果影响是什么
• What is the impact of the targeted policy instruments on macroeconomic and societal outcomes
  有针对性的政策工具对宏观经济和社会成果有何影响
  • productivity, employment, GDP, inequalities or welfare
    生产力、就业、GDP、不平等或福利
  • indirect effects of the policy
    政策的间接影响
• What are the complementarities between targeted policy instruments
  有针对性的政策工具之间有哪些互补性

Perspective 看法

Recent advances in data collection, storage and analytics (notably machine learning) may lower the cost of policy impact evaluation
数据收集、存储和分析（尤其是机器学习）方面的最新进展可能会降低政策影响评估的成本

• New ways to gather and match information on (new) ventures and innovation inputs or outputs
  收集和匹配（新）企业和创新投入或产出信息的新方法
• New and more efficient methods to treat this information using Machine Learning (ML) techniques
  使用机器学习 (ML) 技术处理这些信息的更有效的新方法

Summary 概括