Image source, Reuters  路透社

Much of China's exports used to go to the US - but with the current tariffs - where might they end up?
中国的大部分出口曾经流向美国，但在当前关税的情况下，它们可能会流向哪里？

This has become a "massive diplomatic and geopolitical headache for the Chinese leadership", says The Economist's geopolitics editor David Rennie, who recently met with Chinese officials and scholars.
《经济学人》的地缘政治编辑大卫·伦尼表示：“这已成为中国领导层的一个‘巨大的外交和地缘政治难题’”，他最近与中国官员和学者会面。

"China also has the additional problem that if America really stays closed off to Chinese exports, those exports are going to have to go somewhere else. I was told in Beijing [that] China is already very concerned... by the idea that they can end up really alienating and aggravating places like Europe, even partners in Latin America, the Global South," he says.
“中国还有一个额外的问题，如果美国真的对中国出口关闭，那么这些出口就必须去其他地方。我在北京被告知，中国已经非常担心……他们可能会真正疏远和激怒像欧洲这样的地方，甚至是拉丁美洲的合作伙伴，全球南方国家，”他说。

"Because if a tidal wave of Chinese exports ends up swamping those markets and damaging employment and jobs in lots of countries around the world because it can't be sold in America, that's a massive diplomatic and geopolitical headache for the Chinese leadership."
“因为如果一波中国出口潮淹没了那些市场，并损害了世界各地许多国家的就业和工作，因为它无法在美国销售，那对中国领导层来说就是一个巨大的外交和地缘政治难题。”

Image source, Getty Images

Just before President Trump - presumably - went to bed, he shared a message on Truth Social., external
就在特朗普总统——推测上——准备上床睡觉之前，他在 Truth Social 上分享了一条消息。

"What a day, but more great days coming!!!" He wrote, shortly before 01:00 in Washington (05:45 BST).
“真是一天，但更多美好的日子即将到来！！！” 他在华盛顿时间 01:00（英国夏令时间 05:45）前不久写道。

It follows his decision to step back from the cliff edge of a global trade war, instead doubling down on his tariffs on China.
这紧随他决定从全球贸易战的悬崖边缘退回，反而加大了对中国的关税。

To catch you up this morning, our correspondent Anthony Zurcher has more on the surprise 90-day pause on tariffs - which the White House had previously derided.
为了让您了解今早的情况，我们的记者安东尼·祖尔彻对此前被白宫嘲讽的意外 90 天关税暂停进行了更多报道。

Good morning to our readers from UK and Europe, and good afternoon to those in Asia. If you are just joining us, here's what's been unfolding in the last few hours:
早上好，来自英国和欧洲的读者，下午好，来自亚洲的读者。如果您刚刚加入我们，以下是过去几小时发生的事情：

• China's 84% retaliatory levy on imported US goods have taken effect as Beijing and Washington lean deeper into a trade war
  中国对进口美国商品征收的 84%报复性关税已生效，北京和华盛顿在贸易战中愈加深入。
• Trump had already put a 125% tariff on Chinese goods - up from 104%. He has singled out Beijing for harsher treatment, while putting a 90-day pause on higher tariffs on other countries
  特朗普已经对中国商品征收了 125%的关税，较之前的 104%有所上升。他对北京采取了更严厉的措施，同时对其他国家的更高关税暂停 90 天。
• China has filed another lawsuit with the World Trade Organization, accusing the US of engaging in "bullying tactics"
  中国已向世界贸易组织提起另一项诉讼，指控美国采取“霸凌战术”
• Stock markets across Asia have made gains following news of the reprieve. One analyst told the BBC that exporters in the region are heaving "a massive sigh of relief"
  亚洲各地的股市在获悉缓解消息后纷纷上涨。一位分析师告诉 BBC，区域内的出口商们松了一口气
• A few countries have made some progress in reaching out to Washington. Vietnam, for instance, says the US has agreed to start negotiations over a trade agreement
  一些国家在与华盛顿接触方面取得了一些进展。例如，越南表示美国已同意开始就贸易协议进行谈判
• Chinese state media meanwhile continues to call for global unity against US tariffs but has not highlighted the 90-day pause
  中国国家媒体同时继续呼吁全球团结对抗美国关税，但并未强调 90 天的暂停。

• 20 January: Trump uses his inauguration speech to outline plans to overhaul the global trading system "to protect American workers" and introduce tariffs on foreign countries "to enrich our citizens"
  1 月 20 日：特朗普在就职演讲中概述了改革全球贸易体系的计划，旨在“保护美国工人”，并对外国征收关税，以“丰富我们的公民”
• 1 February: The US president announces a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican exports to the US - and an additional 10% on China
  2 月 1 日：美国总统宣布对加拿大和墨西哥出口到美国的商品征收 25%的关税，并对中国商品额外征收 10%的关税
• 3 February: Mexico and Canada reach a deal to pause US tariffs for one month
  2 月 3 日：墨西哥和加拿大达成协议，暂停对美国关税一个月
• 10 February: Trump announces a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US
  2 月 10 日：特朗普宣布对所有进入美国的钢铁和铝征收 25%的进口税
• 4 March: The White House places an additional tariff on Chinese imports
  3 月 4 日：白宫对中国进口商品加征额外关税
• 12 March: Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs take effect
  3 月 12 日：特朗普的 25%钢铁和铝关税生效
• 26 March: The White House reveals new 25% duties on car and car parts coming into the US - those take effect from 2 April
  3 月 26 日：白宫公布对进入美国的汽车及汽车零部件征收 25%的新关税 - 该关税将于 4 月 2 日起生效
• 2 April: Trump says the US will impose "reciprocal tariffs" on certain countries, as well as a universal 10% levy on imports from all other countries
  4 月 2 日：特朗普表示，美国将对某些国家征收“对等关税”，并对所有其他国家的进口征收 10%的普遍税
• 5 April: That 10% "baseline" tariff takes effect
  4 月 5 日：该 10%的“基准”关税开始生效
• 9 April: Custom tariffs on roughly 60 countries - dubbed the worst offenders - come into effect. Trump then announces a 90-day pause for all countries, except China, with a universal 10% tariff across the board. Trump hikes tariffs on China to 125%
  4 月 9 日：对大约 60 个国家的关税生效，这些国家被称为最严重的违规者。特朗普随后宣布对所有国家（中国除外）暂停 90 天，普遍征收 10%的关税。特朗普将对中国的关税提高至 125%
• 10 April: China's 84% levies on the US take effect
  4 月 10 日：中国对美国的 84%关税生效

Image source, Getty Images

Jagdip Cheema  贾格迪普·奇马
Business reporter, BBC News
BBC 新闻的商业记者

Goldman Sachs has backtracked on its US recession prediction that it made earlier this week.
高盛已撤回本周早些时候做出的美国经济衰退预测。

The investment banking giant had forecast there was 65% chance that the US economy would shrink this year.
这家投资银行巨头预测美国经济在今年收缩的可能性为 65%。

It has now reverted to a previous forecast, predicting there is 45% risk of a recession.
现在它已恢复到之前的预测，预计经济衰退的风险为 45%。

In an internal research note seen by the BBC, Goldman said: “Earlier today, before President Trump’s announcement, we had shifted to a recession baseline in response to the additional country-specific tariffs that went into effect this morning. We are now reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast.”
在 BBC 看到的一份内部研究报告中，高盛表示：“今天早些时候，在特朗普总统的公告之前，我们已根据今天生效的额外国家特定关税转向了衰退基线。我们现在恢复到之前的非衰退基线预测。”

Fellow investment bank JPMorgan said it would also "revisit" its forecast over the next few days, stating the US recession risk was now a "closer call" after Trump announced a 90-day pause to higher tariffs on most countries. Earlier this week it raised its prediction to 60%.
投资银行摩根大通表示，它将在接下来的几天内“重新审视”其预测，称美国经济衰退的风险现在是一个“更接近的判断”，因为特朗普宣布对大多数国家的高关税暂停 90 天。本周早些时候，它将预测上调至 60%。

Annabelle Liang  安娜贝尔·梁
Business reporter, Singapore
商业记者，新加坡

Image source, Getty Images

Stock markets across Asia are making gains this morning.
亚洲各地的股市今晨普遍上涨。

In Japan and China, share price display boards are a sea of red. It's a big difference from what can be expected on a good day on Wall Street, where green is associated with rising financial markets.
在日本和中国，股价显示板一片红海。这与华尔街的好日子形成了鲜明对比，那里绿色通常与金融市场的上涨相关。

There is no official explanation for why things are different in some parts of Asia.
目前没有官方解释为何亚洲某些地区的情况有所不同。

But in China red is a highly auspicious colour, while it's used in Japan for celebrations.
但在中国，红色是一种非常吉利的颜色，而在日本则用于庆祝活动。

Image source, EPA

China has been planning really carefully for Donald Trump's onslaught of tariffs and it has both short-term and long-term countermeasures in its arsenal, according to The Economist's geopolitics editor David Rennie.
根据《经济学人》地缘政治编辑大卫·伦尼的说法，中国一直在为唐纳德·特朗普的关税攻击进行精心策划，并且在其武器库中拥有短期和长期的对策。

Beijing saw the signs as far back as Trump's presidential campaign that he was going to target China, Rennie tells the BBC's Newshour programme. Rennie was recently in the Chinese capital where he got to talk to Chinese officials and scholars.
伦尼告诉 BBC 的《新闻时间》节目，北京早在特朗普的总统竞选期间就看到了他将针对中国的迹象。伦尼最近在中国首都与中国官员和学者进行了交谈。

"China likes to plan. It likes five-year plans. It finds it very hard to deal with this mercurial transactional American president," he says.
“中国喜欢规划。它喜欢五年计划。它发现很难应对这位善变的交易型美国总统，”他说。

"They've been preparing really carefully for a long time. They've have been doing short-term America-specific defensive kind of preparations and some longer-term attempts to reshape and rebalance their entire economy away from this incredibly high dependence on exports," he adds.
“他们已经准备了很长时间，非常仔细。他们一直在进行针对美国的短期防御性准备，以及一些长期的尝试，以重塑和重新平衡他们整个经济，减少对出口的极高依赖，”他补充道。

Take the case of Chinese tariffs on soybeans from the US. Rennie says the levy targets Trump's support base in the US mid-west and Beijing can get it from Brazil and Argentina.
以中国对美国大豆的关税为例。Rennie 表示，这项税收针对的是特朗普在美国中西部的支持基础，而北京可以从巴西和阿根廷获得大豆。

The thinking in Beijing goes, "What can we target that is gonna hurt Trump voters and get Trump's attention, and we can buy that from somewhere else," Rennie says.
北京的想法是：“我们可以针对什么来伤害特朗普的选民并引起特朗普的注意，而我们可以从其他地方购买这些东西，”伦尼说。

Annabelle Liang  安娜贝尔·梁
Business reporter, Singapore
商业记者，新加坡

On paper, tariffs stand to impact China more than the US.
从表面上看，关税对中国的影响似乎大于对美国的影响。

Firms in China sold almost $440bn (£342.5bn) of goods to America last year. That is around three times what US firms sold to China, suggesting that higher levies will cause a bigger hit to Chinese businesses.
中国企业去年向美国出口了近 4400 亿美元（约 3425 亿英镑）的商品。这是美国企业向中国出口额的三倍，表明更高的关税将对中国企业造成更大的打击。

But the reality is far more complex, according to analysts.
但根据分析师的说法，现实要复杂得多。

The 84% Chinese levies will have an outsized impact on US agricultural companies, which count China as their largest export market, said Sarah Tan from the Moody's Analytics research firm.
穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的莎拉·谭表示，84%的中国关税将对美国农业公司产生巨大影响，因为中国是它们最大的出口市场。

"US agriculture is on the front line of [China's] volley," she said.
她说：“美国农业正处于[中国]攻击的前线。”

"When this latest increase is combined with hikes of 10% on soybeans, fruit, dairy products, pork and beef and 15% on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton in March, US farmers will soon feel a noticeable decline in Chinese demand."
"当这次最新的涨幅与三月份大豆、水果、乳制品、猪肉和牛肉的 10%涨幅，以及鸡肉、小麦、玉米和棉花的 15%涨幅相结合时，美国农民将很快感受到中国需求的明显下降。"

American consumers will also bear the brunt of any price increases - as tariffs could make Chinese imports more expensive, said Alex Holmes from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
经济学人智库的亚历克斯·霍姆斯表示，美国消费者也将承受任何价格上涨的主要影响，因为关税可能使中国进口商品变得更加昂贵。

"Tariff rates are so high between the two countries now it's essentially an embargo for all but essential goods," he added.
“现在两国之间的关税率如此之高，实际上对除基本商品外的所有商品都形成了禁运，”他补充道。

China has now raised the tariffs on all imported US goods to 84%, up from the 34% previously announced.
中国现在已将所有进口美国商品的关税提高至 84%，高于之前宣布的 34%。

Trump had earlier already hit Beijing with an astounding 125% levy.
特朗普之前已经对北京征收了惊人的 125%的关税。

The trade war between the world's two biggest economies shows no signs of slowing down. Beijing has vowed to "fight to the end" and Washington has also indicated that it will not back down.
世界两大经济体之间的贸易战没有减缓的迹象。北京誓言“斗争到底”，华盛顿也表示不会退缩。

Apart from tariffs, China has also slapped restrictions on more than a dozen US firms which, among other things, prohibit their executives from entering China or ban them from investing in the country.
除了关税，中国还对十多家美国公司实施了限制措施，其中包括禁止其高管入境中国或禁止他们在中国投资。

Image source, EPA

We are bringing you reaction from Taiwan, which had been due to to be hit with a 32% tariff.
我们将带来来自台湾的反应，台湾原本将面临 32%的关税。

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said Taiwan was committed to buy more from the US and increase investments in America.
外交部长林佳龙表示，台湾致力于从美国购买更多商品并增加对美国的投资。

"Now that we have an additional 90 days, we can discuss Taiwan-US economic and trade cooperation in a more detailed and in-depth manner," he told reporters in parliament.
“现在我们有了额外的 90 天，我们可以更详细、更深入地讨论台美经济和贸易合作，”他在议会对记者说道。

"We hope to take advantage of the huge US market, their excellent technology capital and talent, to form a Taiwan-US coalition, a joint fleet approach," he added.
“我们希望利用庞大的美国市场、他们优秀的技术资本和人才，形成一个台美联盟，采取联合舰队的方式，”他补充道。

Ian Tang  伊恩·唐
BBC Monitoring  BBC 监测

Image source, CCTV

China’s national broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) is projecting a sense of global unity against the US tariffs and saying China is well-poised to deal with the turmoil.

Reports highlighted China filing a lawsuit with the WTO over the US tariffs, the foreign ministry’s criticisms of Washington as well as the commerce ministry blacklisting 18 American firms and barring them from trading with China, which was announced a day earlier.

It also noted global opposition to the US tariffs, particularly focusing on the EU and Canada’s retaliations.

Another report highlighted comments from foreign scholars and experts that the tariffs are "hurting newly emerging markets".

A Chinese scholar told CCTV that China “still has ample monetary and financial policies” to support companies affected by the trade war.

Interesting but expected, Trump’s 90-day pause of higher tariffs for most countries but raising tariff on Chinese imports to 125% was not reported in CCTV.

Let's take a look at where stock markets are trading today in the Asia-Pacific region.

Shares are holding on to this morning's gains, with less than an hour until new Chinese tariffs on the US are due to take effect.

Here's where markets currently stand:

• Nikkei 225 (Japan) +8.3%
• Kospi (South Korea) +5.6%
• Shanghai Composite (China) +1%
• Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +2.6%
• Taiex (Taiwan) +9.2%
• ASX200 (Australia) +4.6%

China has filed another complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), accusing Trump of engaging in "bullying" tactics.

"[Washington's] 50% tariff increase is a mistake on top of a mistake, highlighting the unilateral bullying nature of the US measures," the commerce ministry said on Wednesday.

Beijing "will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in accordance with the WTO rules, and resolutely uphold the multilateral trading system and the international economic and trade order,” a spokesman said.

Image source, Reuters

• 20 January: Trump uses his inauguration speech to outline plans to overhaul the trade system "to protect American workers" and introduce tariffs on foreign countries "to enrich our citizens"
• 1 February: He announces a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican exports to the US - and an additional 10% on China
• 3 February: Mexico and Canada reach a deal to pause US tariffs for one month
• 10 February: Trump announces a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US
• 4 March: The White House places an additional tariff on Chinese imports
• 12 March: Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs take effect
• 26 March: The White House reveals new 25% duties on car and car partscoming into the US - those take effect from 2 April
• 2 April: Trump announces the US will impose "reciprocal tariffs" on certain countries, as well as a universal 10% levy on imports from all other countries
• 5 April: That 10% "baseline" tariff comes into effect
• 9 April: Custom tariffs on roughly 60 countries - dubbed the worst offenders - come into effect. Trump then announces a 90-day pause for all countries, except China, with a universal 10% tariff across the board. China's tariffs are hiked to 125%

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Professor Graham Allison, who has recently returned from China where he met key leaders, tells the BBC's World Business Report radio programme that President Xi Jinping has been preparing for an economic face-off with America for some time.

The US political scientist says Xi "appreciated that there was a risk that the US and China would find themselves in an economic war, and he was preparing for "choppy waters".

"At least from all the evidence that I’ve seen they’ve been preparing in each of the departments, each arena to be resilient if something like this should happen. And to retaliate in kind."

Allison, the author of the book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, says China is now "playing a long game".

He says Beijing believes "in a grand narrative that China is inexorably rising and that the US is irreversibly declining."

Although Chinese leaders realise that the current tariff war is a "lose-lose" situation, they believe they can deal with the situation better than Washington, the professor says.

“My bet is Xi is preparing for a pretty tough trade war… and they think that Chinese are probably better at suffering than Americans are.”

Image source, Getty Images

Trump may have announced a 90-day pause for countries hit by higher US tariffs, but his trade war with China has escalated - along with diplomatic tensions.

China's culture and tourism ministry has issued a travel advisory telling its citizens to "travel with caution" and "fully assess the risks" before going to the US.

It cited a "“deterioration of China-US economic and trade relations and the domestic security situation in the United States".

China now faces a whopping 125% tariff, as Beijing is set to impose an 84% levy on US goods.

The country's education ministry issued a separate warning, telling all overseas students to "conduct safety risk assessments" when deciding whether to study in the US.

This warning comes in response to the a bill passed in Ohio which aims to restrict "foreign influence" from China in state universities.

Annabelle Liang
Business reporter, Singapore

It's getting increasingly difficult to believe that just over a week ago, US tariffs on China stood at 20%.

The levies have since ballooned to 104% and now 125% with Trump's latest tariffs salvo.

While the numbers are astonishing, analysts say they are way past the threshold for Chinese businesses trying to make profits by exporting goods to America.

"At these levels, the damage from added tariffs is likely to be greatly diminished," says Louise Loo from the Oxford Economics consultancy.

Firms may be forced to sell to goods to Chinese consumers instead "as other countries are already taking steps to fend off the prospect of a flood of Chinese exports landing on their shores," says Eswar Prasad, a professor specialising in trade policy at Cornell University.

With exports being so important to China's economy, it will be up to policymakers to stimulate consumption, he adds.

This could be an uphill task as China's economy has slipped into deflation, with the official measure of consumer prices falling for a second month straight in March.

There is also the possibility that China could devalue its currency further. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper to buy with foreign currencies.

The yuan fell to a 19-month low against the dollar on Thursday.

"It would have wider ramifications on sentiment and capital flows so [China doesn't] seem keen to use it," says Priyanka Kishore from the Asia Decoded research firm. "But exceptional times can call for exceptional measures."

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Leaders of more than 30 countries from Latin America and the Caribbean have promised to take measures to boost trade within the region to minimise the impact of President Trump's tariffs.

At the leaders' summit in Honduras, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that arbitrary tariffs would destabilise the international economy and cause inflation.

Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum said they "require unity and solidarity among their governments and peoples and to strengthen greater regional integration"

Both leaders said, however, they would try to negotiate with the Trump administration before considering retaliatory tariffs.

Analysts say the tariffs may increase Chinese economic presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. China was invited to attend the summit as a special guest.

As President Trump ups the ante of tariffs on China, the world's second largest economy has shown no signs of backing down.

Here is a summary of what has happened so far:

• China's finance ministry has retaliated by announcing a 84% tariff, up from 34% on goods imported from the US. These levies are set to take effect at 12:01 local time (05:01 BST)
• State media Xinhua quoted an official from the commerce ministry saying: "The Chinese government will by no means sit by when the legitimate rights and interests of its people are being hurt and deprived"
• An editorial in the state-run newspaper declared that "Global unity can triumph over trade tyranny," noting Beijing's collaborations with Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies
• China's commerce minister Wang Wentao has held talks with European trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic and Malaysia trade minister Zafrul Aziz

Image source, Getty Images

Suddenly, Donald Trump's trade war is in much sharper focus.

Rather than a fight on all fronts against the world, this now looks far more like a fight on familiar Trumpian territory: America v China.

What happens next depends on two key questions:

1. Will China take up the president's offer to negotiate?
2. Assuming it does, will Beijing be willing to make the kind of major concessions that Washington is looking for, including a complete overhaul of its export driven economic model?

To understand just how central this is to the US president's thinking, you need to go back to the time before anyone ever thought of him as a possible candidate for office, let alone a likely winner.

Read more of the analysis from BBC's Senior North America correspondent John Sudworth.