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TARIFFS IN FOCUS

Base Metals Comment: US Copper Tariffs: Sooner And More Certain, But 2025H2 Supply Crunch Risk Is Greatly Reduced

The US looks set to announce copper import tariffs in the coming weeks, according to a press report. This would shorten the timeline for tariffs, which we were expecting between September and November. Greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the US. Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the US will likely be fast tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200kt[1] above the standard 60-70kt/month, albeit with upside risk.

26 Mar 2025 | Research | Commodities - Eoin Dinsmore and others

Japan Automobiles: US announces 25% tariff on automobiles produced outside US

The US government announced it will impose a 25% tariff on all automobiles produced outside the US, to take effect April 2. Of the roughly 16 mn automobiles sold in the US in 2024, 46% were imported, with 2.5 mn vehicles coming from Mexico, 1.4 mn from South Korea, 1.3 mn from Japan, 1.1 mn from Canada, and 700,000 from Europe. Based on an average sales price of US$45,000, the value of imports would exceed US$330 bn, and US import tariffs could therefore have a major impact on sales prices and auto demand.

27 Mar 2025 | Research | Equity -Kota Yuzawa and others

Also see: 
Japan Economics Analyst: Tariff Q&A Ahead of April 2 Announcement (Ota)
Asia in Focus: Potential US Tariff Impact on ASEAN Growth; Expecting More Dovish Regional Central Banks
Global Markets Daily: Oil Markets Relaxed Despite Elevated Risks (Bruce)
US Daily: The April 2 Tariff Announcement: Risks Lean Toward a Negative Surprise (Phillips)

We have held extensive meetings with investors in Asia, the US, and Europe in the past month to discuss views and ideas on Chinese equities. We summarize clients' feedback and FAQs, and our latest market thoughts as follows:

1. China is back on the radar, at least in terms of investor interest;
2. We expect more fundamental upside for Chinese stocks after ~20% gains ytd, but reiterate our tactical view that the bull run may slow on event risks and profit-taking pressures;
3. Equity investors seem relaxed about US tariff concerns, citing various macro, policy, and micro reasons;
4. Most investors agree that the Chinese AI story is a game changer, although questions/debates about potential AI benefits have surfaced;
5. Investors welcome the easing regulatory pressures on the private sector, and focus on the durability of the easing cycle;
6. "Green shoots" are emerging in select pockets of the economy. Policy delivery still holds the key for further gains;
7. Global funds are motivated to return to China, but US policy risks remain an overhang;
8. Most frequently asked question: Stick with H, or shift to A?
9. Market leadership and concentration: Can Tech extend the outperformance, or Consumer to take over?
10. What are different types of investors doing in the Chinese stock market?
26 Mar 2025 | 7:11am| 20pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Kinger Lau, CFA and others
In this note we highlight options positioning for companies with potential exposure to changes in trade/tariff policy. Our economics team now expects the US effective tariff rate to rise by roughly 10pp to 13% leading them to lower their 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.7%. They see the potential for the tariff rate to rise by about 15pp in an upside risk scenario. Our US strategists' have also lowered their S&P 500 year-end target from 6500 to 6200 to reflect a lower GDP growth forecast, a higher assumed tariff rate and a greater equity risk premium driven by a higher level of uncertainty.

Two new catalyst-based idiosyncratic trades:
Trade #1: Buy JEF straddles ahead of earnings (26-Mar)
Trade #2: Buy GM straddles ahead of earnings (29-Apr)
26 Mar 2025 | 5:00pm| 10pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

With this report, we assess the current state of the creator economy, including sizing the market opportunity, outlining the current landscape (private funding, forms of monetization, impact of AI, etc.), key growth drivers, and which platforms we see as best positioned to capitalize on this emerging theme. We also analyze the impact of a potential TikTok shutdown in the US to the creator economy and the broader digital advertising industry (without taking a view on the ultimate outcome of TikTok’s operations in the US).
/content/research/authors/b5236ca0-9a05-4ab3-8086-25e6b908d952.html

Eric Sheridan

Internet | New York
27 Mar 2025 | 4:32am| 28pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
Alfa Laval (ALFA.ST): Upgrade to Neutral post YTD underperformance
27 Mar 2025 | 1:06am| 22pg| Research | Equity-Daniela Costa and others
Ferrari Group (FERGR.AS): Luxury logistics player well positioned for growth, initiate at Buy
26 Mar 2025 | 12:01pm| 30pg| Research | Equity-Patrick Creuset and others
I
Latest research
Acciona Energia (ANE.MC): Downside risk to 2026 cons. estimates
27 Mar 2025 | 9:45am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO): Management meeting takeaways; Buy
27 Mar 2025 | 9:38am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
India Energy: OMCs: Expect a strong 4Q, and we see upside risk to earnings into FY26; Buy HPCL/BPCL
27 Mar 2025 | 9:26am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Nikhil Bhandari and others
Japan Automobiles: US announces 25% tariff on automobiles produced outside US
27 Mar 2025 | 7:46am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Kota Yuzawa and others
Sabesp (SBSP3.SA): What's the fair EV/RAB? + model update
27 Mar 2025 | 7:42am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Bruno Amorim, CFA and others
JinkoSolar Holding (JKS): Margin and ASPs declines not done yet, guidance much weaker than expected; Sell
27 Mar 2025 | 7:15am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and others

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DAILY ROUNDUPS
Midday Market Intelligence: albatross
27 Mar 2025 | 1:51am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
26 Mar 2025 | 8:59pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Europe
25-27 Mar 2025 | London
Global Investment Research
webcast: Asia
27 Mar 2025 | 4:30pm HK | 4:30am NY | 8:30am LN
Rahul Jain, Head of India Equity Research
Arnab Mitra, India Consumer Analyst
Pulkit Patni, India Industrials Analyst
Manish Adukia, India Internet Analyst
Chandramouli Muthiah, India Autos Analyst
Shyam Srinivasan , India Healthcare & Insurance Analyst
Michael Snaith, Asia Research Merchandising
Passcode: 917751; Zoom Meeting ID: 920 6041 6988
Global Investment Research
conference: Americas
31 Mar-1 Apr 2025 | San Francisco