Equity Research
The US looks set to announce copper import tariffs in the coming weeks, according to a press report. This would shorten the timeline for tariffs, which we were expecting between September and November. Greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the US. Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the US will likely be fast tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200kt[1] above the standard 60-70kt/month, albeit with upside risk.
26 Mar 2025 | Research | Commodities - Eoin Dinsmore and others
Japan Automobiles: US announces 25% tariff on automobiles produced outside US
The US government announced it will impose a 25% tariff on all automobiles produced outside the US, to take effect April 2. Of the roughly 16 mn automobiles sold in the US in 2024, 46% were imported, with 2.5 mn vehicles coming from Mexico, 1.4 mn from South Korea, 1.3 mn from Japan, 1.1 mn from Canada, and 700,000 from Europe. Based on an average sales price of US$45,000, the value of imports would exceed US$330 bn, and US import tariffs could therefore have a major impact on sales prices and auto demand.
27 Mar 2025 | Research | Equity -Kota Yuzawa and others
Also see:
Japan Economics Analyst: Tariff Q&A Ahead of April 2 Announcement (Ota)
Asia in Focus: Potential US Tariff Impact on ASEAN Growth; Expecting More Dovish Regional Central Banks
Global Markets Daily: Oil Markets Relaxed Despite Elevated Risks (Bruce)
US Daily: The April 2 Tariff Announcement: Risks Lean Toward a Negative Surprise (Phillips)
1. China is back on the radar, at least in terms of investor interest;
2. We expect more fundamental upside for Chinese stocks after ~20% gains ytd, but reiterate our tactical view that the bull run may slow on event risks and profit-taking pressures;
3. Equity investors seem relaxed about US tariff concerns, citing various macro, policy, and micro reasons;
4. Most investors agree that the Chinese AI story is a game changer, although questions/debates about potential AI benefits have surfaced;
5. Investors welcome the easing regulatory pressures on the private sector, and focus on the durability of the easing cycle;
6. "Green shoots" are emerging in select pockets of the economy. Policy delivery still holds the key for further gains;
7. Global funds are motivated to return to China, but US policy risks remain an overhang;
8. Most frequently asked question: Stick with H, or shift to A?
9. Market leadership and concentration: Can Tech extend the outperformance, or Consumer to take over?
10. What are different types of investors doing in the Chinese stock market?
Two new catalyst-based idiosyncratic trades:
Trade #1: Buy JEF straddles ahead of earnings (26-Mar)
Trade #2: Buy GM straddles ahead of earnings (29-Apr)
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Eric Sheridan
- Company HighlightsMeituan (3690.HK): Internet Trip Takeaways: Steady core profit growth while investing into merchant/rider ecosystems, Keeta and AI; Buy27 Mar 2025 | 12:14am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Ronald Keung, CFA and othersBYDE (0285.HK): ADAS / AD to drive growth ahead; Product mix upgrade to support GM recovery; 2H24 miss on GM; Buy27 Mar 2025 | 1:51am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and othersKrafton (259960.KS): Building a solid track record of shareholder return while gamer anticipation rises ahead of inZOI's early access launch26 Mar 2025 | 11:33pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and othersWalmart Inc. (WMT): Thoughts ahead of Investment Community Meeting27 Mar 2025 | 4:07am| 18pg| Research | Equity-Kate McShane, CFA and othersJefferies Financial Group (JEF): First Take: Weaker revenue across the business, and mixed margin trends27 Mar 2025 | 5:30am| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and othersGiant Biogene Holding (2367.HK): 2H24 results slightly beat with special dividend a positive surprise; MA approval actively in progress; Raise TP, reiterate Buy27 Mar 2025 | 3:16am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Cathy Chen, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsIndia Energy: OMCs: Expect a strong 4Q, and we see upside risk to earnings into FY26; Buy HPCL/BPCL27 Mar 2025 | 9:26am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Nikhil Bhandari and othersHong Kong Real Estate: Lowering residential price forecast but continue to expect inflection this year; Buy SHKP, CKA26 Mar 2025 | 6:47pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and othersAmericas Pipelines and MLPs: Basin by Basin Pipeline Infrastructure Updates - Shale Well-Piped, Investment Moving Downstream27 Mar 2025 | 4:02am| 29pg| Research | Equity-John Mackay and othersEurope Internet & Media: Execution, AI and M&A in Focus; Resume Sector Coverage26 Mar 2025 | 5:40am| 155pg| Research | Equity-Lisa Yang and othersAmericas Retail: Screening for exposure to potential reciprocal tariffs; updating our Vietnam sourcing tracker26 Mar 2025 | 5:31am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Brooke Roach, CFA and othersEurope Real Estate: Rental growth offsetting higher bond yields; M&A on the rise; we make four rating changes26 Mar 2025 | 4:16am| 76pg| Research | Equity-Jonathan Kownator and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGOAL Kickstart: Performance dissection and safe assets in the correction25 Mar 2025 | 6:24am| 30pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and othersJapan Portfolio Strategy: Resilient TOPIX and potential earnings downside25 Mar 2025 | 9:14am| 17pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Kazunori Tatebe, CFA and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: The role of foreign investors in the US equity market22 Mar 2025 | 5:34am| 24pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSMacro Catalyst Reactions (25-Mar-2025)25 Mar 2025 | 8:29pm| 8pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (24-Mar-25)24 Mar 2025 | 7:30pm| 16pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (23-Mar-2025)23 Mar 2025 | 8:15pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
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