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IFY Assessment Cover Sheet
IFY 评估封面

Student Name
学生姓名

NCUK Student ID
NCUK 学生证

Module
模块

EAP

Coursework 1 / 2 (etc.)
课程作业 1 / 2 (等)

Reading-into-Writing Task (Formative – Semester 1)
阅读写作任务(形成性 - 第 1 学期)

Lecturer/Tutor
讲师/导师

Date Submitted
提交日期

Academic Misconduct: Student Declaration
学术不端行为:学生声明

All forms of academic misconduct (e.g. plagiarism, collusion, fabrication of results and subcontracting and the use of translation services) are regarded seriously by NCUK and could result in penalties, including a zero mark (failure) and possible disciplinary action.  Types of academic misconduct include:
NCUK 严肃对待所有形式的学术不端行为(例如 剽窃、串通、伪造结果和分包以及使用翻译服务),并可能导致处罚,包括零分(不及格)和可能的纪律处分。学术不端行为的类型包括:

Plagiarism - Copying information, thoughts or ideas from a published or unpublished source without acknowledging (showing in your work) where that information, thoughts or ideas came from
剽窃 - 从已发布或未发布的来源复制信息、想法或想法,而不承认(在您的作品中显示)这些信息、想法或想法的来源

Collusion - Where two or more students work together to produce individual assessments that contain the same ideas and text
串通 - 两个或多个学生共同制作包含相同想法和文本的个人评估

Fabrication of Results - Where a student presents a set of results that are not from his/her observations or calculations
捏造结果 - 学生提出一组不是来自他/她的观察或计算的结果

Subcontracting - Where a student receives help from someone else with his or her assessment, this may be via a paid for service (also known as contract cheating) or by using friends and family.
分包 - 如果学生从其他人那里获得评估方面的帮助,这可能是通过有偿服务(也称为合同作弊)或与朋友和家人合作。

Translation Services - where a student uses a person or service (including online tools) to translate - into English - some or all their work from another language. This type of academic misconduct applies only assessments that contribute to your EAP, EAPPU or RCS grade.
翻译服务 - 学生使用人员或服务(包括在线工具)将他们的部分或全部作品从另一种语言翻译成英语。 这种类型的学术不端行为仅适用于对您的 EAP、EAPPU 或 RCS 成绩有贡献的评估。

DECLARATION
声明

I declare that all material in this assessment is my own work and that I have given fully documented references to the work of others.
我声明,本评估中的所有材料都是我自己的作品,并且我已经对他人的工作提供了完整的记录参考。

Signed: __________________________________ Date: _______________________________
签名时间:__________________________________日期:_______________________________

Study Session 5  Urbanisation: Trends, Causes and Effects
研究环节 5  城市化:趋势、原因和影响

Introduction
介绍

More than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. Due to the ongoing urbanisation and growth of the world’s population, there will be about 2.5 billion more people added to the urban population by 2050, mainly in Africa and Asia. The world’s urban areas are highly varied, but many cities and towns are facing problems such as a lack of jobs, homelessness and expanding squatter settlements, inadequate services and infrastructure, poor health and educational services and high levels of pollution.
世界上一半以上的人口生活在城市地区。由于持续的城市化进程和世界人口的增长,到 2050 年,城市人口将增加约 25 亿,主要集中在非洲和亚洲。世界城市地区千差万别,但许多城镇都面临着失业、无家可归和寮屋定居点扩大、服务和基础设施不足、卫生和教育服务差以及污染严重等问题。

In this study session, you will learn about the trends in urbanisation and the causes of urban growth. You will also learn about the demographic, health, environmental and social consequences of urbanisation.
在本次学习中,您将了解城市化的趋势和城市增长的原因。你还将了解城市化对人口、健康、环境和社会的影响。

Learning Outcomes for Study Session 5
第 5 节学习成果

When you have studied this session, you should be able to:
学习完本课程后,您应该能够:

5.1  Define and use correctly all of the key words printed in bold. (SAQs 5.1 and 5.2)
5.1  定义并正确使用所有以 粗体打印的关键词。(SAQ 5.1 和 5.2)

5.2  Describe the global and local trends in urbanisation. (SAQ 5.3)
5.2 描述全球和地方城市化趋势。(SAQ 5.3)

5.3  Explain the main causes of urban growth. (SAQs 5.1 and 5.2)
5.3 解释城市增长的主要原因。(SAQ 5.1 和 5.2)

5.4  Describe the main positive and negative impacts of urbanisation. (SAQ 5.4)
5.4 描述城市化的主要积极和消极影响。(SAQ 5.4)

5.1  Urbanisation trends
5.1  城市化趋势

In Study Session 2 you learned about the overall trend in global population growth. Most of this increase is taking place in urban areas. Urbanisation is an increase in the number of people living in towns and cities. Urbanisation occurs mainly because people move from rural areas to urban areas and it results in growth in the size of the urban population and the extent of urban areas. These changes in population lead to other changes in land use, economic activity and culture. Historically, urbanisation has been associated with significant economic and social transformations. For example, urban living is linked with higher levels of literacy and education, better health, lower fertility and a longer life expectancy, greater access to social services and enhanced opportunities for cultural and political participation (UNDESA, 2014). However, urbanisation also has disadvantages caused by rapid and unplanned urban growth resulting in poor infrastructures such as inadequate housing, water and sanitation, transport and health care services.
在第 2 节学习中,您了解了全球人口增长的总体趋势。这种增长大部分发生在城市地区。 城市化是城镇人口数量的增加。城市化主要是因为人们从农村地区迁移到城市地区,它导致城市人口规模和城市地区范围的增长。这些人口变化导致了土地利用、经济活动和文化的其他变化。从历史上看,城市化与重大的经济和社会转型有关。例如,城市生活与更高的识字率和教育水平、更好的健康状况、更低的生育率和更长的预期寿命、更多的社会服务获得机会以及更多的文化和政治参与机会有关(UNDESA,2014)。然而,城市化也存在缺点,因为快速和无计划的城市增长导致基础设施落后,例如住房、水和卫生设施、交通和医疗保健服务不足。

5.1.1  Global trends in urbanisation
5.1.1  全球城市化趋势

In 1960, the global urban population was 34% of the total; however, by 2014 the urban population accounted for 54% of the total and continues to grow. By 2050 the proportion living in urban areas is expected to reach 66% (UNDESA, 2014). Figure 5.1 shows the change in the rural and urban populations of the world from 1950 through to projected figures up to the year 2050.
1960 年,全球城市人口占总人口的 34%;然而,到 2014 年,城市人口占总人口的 54%,并且还在继续增长。到 2050 年,城市地区的居民比例预计将达到 66%(UNDESA,2014 年)。图 5.1 显示了从 1950 年到 2050 年预测数字的世界农村和城市人口的变化。

Figure 5.1  Urban and rural population of the world, 1950–2050. (UNDESA, 2014)
图 5.1 1950-2050 年世界城市和农村人口。(联合国经济和社会事务部,2014 年)

From Figure 5.1, in which year did the number of people living in urban areas first exceed the number living in rural areas?
从图 5.1 可以看出,城市居民人数在哪一年首次超过农村居民人数?

Reveal answer
查看答案

The process of urbanisation affects all sizes of settlements, so villages gradually grow to become small towns, smaller towns become larger towns, and large towns become cities. This trend has led to the growth of mega-cities. A mega-city is an urban area of greater than ten million people. Rapid expansion of city borders, driven by increases in population and infrastructure development, leads to the expansion of city borders that spread out and swallow up neighbouring urban areas to form mega-cities. In 1970, there were only three mega-cities across the globe, but by the year 2000, the number had risen to 17 and by 2030, 24 more mega-cities will be added (see Figure 5.2).
城市化进程影响到各种规模的定居点,因此村庄逐渐发展成小城镇,小城镇变成大城镇,大城镇变成城市。这一趋势导致了特大城市的增长。特大城市是指人口超过 1000 万的城市区域。在人口和基础设施发展的增长推动下,城市边界的快速扩张导致城市边界的扩张,这些边界向外扩展并吞噬了邻近的城市地区,形成了特大城市。1970 年,全球只有 3 个特大城市,但到 2000 年,这个数字已经上升到 17 个,到 2030 年,将再增加 24 个特大城市(见图 5.2)。

Figure 5.2  The top mega-cities in the world in 1970, 2000 and 2030. (UNDESA, 2014)
图 5.2  1970 年、2000 年和 2030 年世界顶级特大城市。(联合国经济和社会事务部,2014 年)

From Figure 5.2, in Africa how many mega-cities are predicted to exist by 2030 and how many have already existed since the year 2000?
从图 5.2 可以看出,到 2030 年,非洲将有多少个特大城市,自 2000 年以来已经有多少个特大城市?

Reveal answer
查看答案

The global trend in urbanisation is not the same in all parts of the world. Asia and Africa currently have the highest rates of urbanisation. Figure 5.3 shows a comparison of trends in more or less developed regions of the world.
全球城市化趋势在世界各地并不相同。亚洲和非洲目前的城市化率最高。图 5.3 显示了世界或多或少发达地区的趋势比较。

Figure 5.3  Trends in urban population growth, comparing more and less developed regions. The graph shows the proportion of the total population living in urban areas.
图 5.3  城市人口增长趋势,比较较发达和欠发达地区。该图显示了居住在城市地区的总人口的比例。

In Figure 5.3, how would you describe the trends in urban growth in more and less developed regions during this century?
在图 5.3 中,您将如何描述本世纪较发达和较不发达地区的城市增长趋势?

Reveal answer
查看答案

5.1.2  Urbanisation in Ethiopia
5.1.2 埃塞俄比亚的城市化

Ethiopia is one of the least urbanised countries in the world today, and only 18% of its population lives in urban areas (JMP, 2014). In common with many other developing countries, however, this pattern is changing (Figure 5.4). Ethiopia’s urban growth rate is more than 4.0% per year, which places it among the highest in Africa and the world (MWUD, 2007).
埃塞俄比亚是当今世界上城市化程度最低的国家之一,只有 18% 的人口居住在城市地区(JMP,2014 年)。然而,与许多其他发展中国家一样,这种模式正在发生变化(图 5.4)。埃塞俄比亚的城市增长率每年超过 4.0%,在非洲和世界上名列前茅(MWUD,2007 年)。

Figure 5.4 Changing proportion of urban and rural population in Ethiopia from 1950 to 2050 (estimated from 2014 onwards). (UNDESA, 2014)
图 5.4 1950 年至 2050 年埃塞俄比亚城市和农村人口比例的变化(从 2014 年开始估计)。(联合国经济和社会事务部,2014 年)

The rapid increase in urban populations has meant that peri-urban areas are growing much more quickly than formal urban centres. Peri-urban areas are those areas immediately around a town or city. They are areas in transition from countryside to city (rural to urban), often with undeveloped infrastructure, where health and sanitation services are under pressure and where the natural environment is at risk of degradation.
城市人口的快速增长意味着城郊地区的增长速度比正规城市中心快得多。  郊地区是指紧邻城镇或城市的地区。这些地区正处于从农村向城市(农村到城市)的过渡期,通常基础设施不发达,卫生和卫生服务面临压力,自然环境面临退化的风险。

Defining the boundaries of urban, peri-urban and rural areas is not straightforward. They do not neatly separate themselves by lines on a map. On the contrary, the sprawling nature of urban development means that the areas merge into each other. The lack of a clear boundary can make it difficult to assess the size of towns by their population or geographical area. However, judgements have to be made and, for planning and administrative purposes, data on population size are collected. Table 5.1 shows the number of towns and cities in Ethiopia by population in 2007, the most recently published data.
定义城市、城郊和农村地区的边界并不简单。他们不会在地图上用线条整齐地分开。相反,城市发展的蔓延性质意味着这些地区相互融合。缺乏明确的边界会使难以根据人口或地理区域评估城镇的规模。但是,必须做出判断,并且出于规划和管理目的,收集有关种群规模的数据。表 5.1 显示了 2007 年埃塞俄比亚按人口计算的城镇数量,这是最近公布的数据。

Table 5.1  Numbers and sizes of urban settlements in Ethiopia. (Adapted from MWUD, 2007)
表 5.1  埃塞俄比亚城市定居点的数量和规模。(改编自 MWUD,2007 年)

Population of urban settlement
城市聚落人口

Number

Up to 2,000
最高 2,000

   171

2,000 to 4,999
2,000 至 4,999

   339

5,000 to 19,999
5,000 至 19,999

   310

20,000 to 49,999
20,000 至 49,999

     79

50,000 to 99,999
50,000 至 99,999

     14

100,000 to 200,000
100,000 至 200,000

       8

Above 200,000
200,000 以上

       4

Total

   925

Of the four cities with a population of more than 200,000, by far the largest is Addis Ababa. In 2007, the population of Addis Ababa was more than 3 million, which amounted to about 25% of Ethiopia’s urban population (MWUD, 2007). The next-largest city, Dire Dawa, had only 293,000 occupants at that time. The impacts of urbanisation are generally much more evident in the capital than in other towns and cities.
在人口超过 200,000 的四个城市中,迄今为止最大的是亚的斯亚贝巴。2007 年,亚的斯亚贝巴人口超过 300 万,约占埃塞俄比亚城市人口的 25%(MWUD,2007 年)。第二大城市 Dire Dawa 当时只有 293,000 名居民。城市化的影响在首都通常比其他城镇要明显得多。

5.2  Causes of urbanisation
5.2 城市化的原因

Urbanisation in the developing world occurs for two main reasons: the natural increase of population and rural to urban migration.
发展中国家的城市化有两个主要原因:人口的自然增长和农村向城市的迁移。

5.2.1  Natural increase of population
5.2.1  人口自然增长

From Study Session 2 you will know that the population is increasing in developing countries. This natural increase is a significant cause of the growing urban population.
从第 2 节学习中,您将了解到发展中国家的人口正在增加。这种自然增长是城市人口增长的重要原因。

Explain what is meant by natural increase of population.
解释人口自然增长的含义。

Reveal answer
查看答案

As birth rates decline over time, according to the demographic transition model, the role of natural increase in determining the pace of urban population growth becomes less important in comparison to migration.
随着出生率随着时间的推移而下降,根据人口转型模型,与移民相比,自然增长在决定城市人口增长速度方面的作用变得不那么重要。

5.2.2  Rural to urban migration
5.2.2 农村向城市迁移

In developing countries, urbanisation usually occurs when people move from villages to settle in cities in hope of gaining a better standard of living. The movement of people from one place to another is called migration. Migration is influenced by economic growth and development and by technological change (Marshall et al., 2009) and possibly also by conflict and social disruption. It is driven by pull factors that attract people to urban areas and push factors that drive people away from the countryside.
在发展中国家,城市化通常发生在人们从农村搬到城市定居以期获得更好的生活水平。人们从一个地方到另一个地方的迁移称为 迁移。 移民受到经济增长和发展以及技术变革的影响(Marshall et al.,2009),也可能受到冲突和社会动荡的影响。它是由 吸引人们到城市地区的拉动因素 和 驱使人们远离农村的推动因素 驱动的。

Employment opportunities in cities are one of the main pull factors. Many industries are located in cities and offer opportunities of high urban wages. There are also more educational institutions providing courses and training in a wide range of subjects and skills. People are attracted to an urban lifestyle and the ‘bright lights’ of city life. All of these factors result in both temporary and permanent migration to urban areas.
城市就业机会是主要拉动因素之一。许多行业位于城市,并提供高城市工资的机会。还有更多的教育机构提供各种学科和技能的课程和培训。人们被城市生活方式和城市生活的 “明亮灯光 ”所吸引。所有这些因素都导致了向城市地区的临时和永久迁移。

Poor living conditions and the lack of opportunities for paid employment in rural areas are push factors. People are moving away from rural areas because of poor health care and limited educational and economic opportunities as well as environmental changes, droughts, floods, lack of availability of sufficiently productive land, and other pressures on rural livelihoods.
恶劣的生活条件和农村地区缺乏有偿就业机会是推动因素。由于医疗保健差、教育和经济机会有限,以及环境变化、干旱、洪水、缺乏足够生产性土地以及农村生计面临的其他压力,人们正在离开农村地区。

Rural to urban migration can be a selective process, as some types of people are more likely to move than others. One of the factors involved is gender, because employment opportunities vary greatly with different jobs for men and women. Another factor is age. Young people are more likely to move to towns, with more elderly people and children left in rural areas. Selectivity in migration affects the population in both the rural and the urban areas. If more men move to towns and cities than women, this leaves a predominantly female society in rural areas.
农村到城市的迁移可能是一个选择性的过程,因为某些类型的人比其他类型的人更有可能迁移。所涉及的因素之一是性别,因为男性和女性的就业机会因工作而异。另一个因素是年龄。年轻人更有可能搬到城镇,而更多的老人和儿童留在农村地区。迁移的选择性会影响农村和城市地区的人口。如果搬到城镇的男性多于女性,那么农村地区就会出现一个以女性为主的社会。

3

URBANISATION CONCEPTS AND TRENDS
城市化概念趋势

Estimates of past and future urban populations and urbanisation levels
过去和未来城市人口城市化水平的估计

It is often claimed, particularly in crisis narratives designed to present urbanisation as a major threat, that contemporary urbanisation and urban population growth rates are unprecedented (for examples see
人们经常声称,特别是在旨在城市化视为主要威胁危机叙述中当代城市化城市人口增长率前所未有的(例如,参见

Satterthwaite 2010). Sub-Saharan Africa in particular is often singled out as having urbanisation rates that are especially high and increasing, when they are neither.
Satterthwaite2010 年)。特别是撒哈拉以南非洲,经常单独指出城市特别,而且在不断增加,而实际上两者都不是。

As described below, average world urban growth rates have actually been declining since the 1950s, and those for sub-Saharan Africa since at least the 1970s (United Nations Population Division 2014). Urbanisation rates are highest in Asia, and global rates have been declining over the past half century. Urbanisation rates and urban growth rates are both predicted to continue their descent.
如下所述,自1950 年代以来,世界平均城市增长率实际上一直在下降,撒哈拉以南非洲的增长率至少自 1970 年代以来一直在下降(联合国人口2014 年)。亚洲的城市化率最高,而全球城市化率在过去半个世纪中一直在下降预计城市化城市增长率都将继续下降

The number of people being added to urban areas is unprecedented, however. Despite the decline in
然而,城市地区的新增人数前所未有的尽管

growth rates, which has important policy implications, the estimated annual increase in the number of urban people in the world is just peaking at nearly 80 million, and will only decline slowly in the coming decades.
增长率,这具有重要的政策意义,估计每年增加的城市人口数量peo p enthewordsustpeakngatneary80mllon并且在未来几十年内只会缓慢下降

Indeed, the demographic momentum is such that a major shift in population from rural to urban areas is still anticipated.
事实上,人口增长势头如此之,以至于人们仍然预计人口将从农村城市地区发生重大转变

The United Nation’s urban population projection for 2010–2050 has an additional 944 million urban dwellers in Africa and 1,449 million in Asia (United
根据联合国2010-2050城市人口的预测非洲城市居民增加 9.44亿亚洲将增加14.49亿

Nations Population Division 2014). These combine to about two thirds of the urban population of the world in 2010, and as illustrated in Figure 1 almost all population growth in the 2010–2050 period is expected to occur in urban areas. Accommodating this many more urban dwellers efficiently and equitably in a planet where global limits need to be addressed will be difficult, particularly if it is not planned for.
国家人口司 2014 年)。到 2010 年,这些人口加起来约占世界城市人口的三分之二如图1所示预计2010-2050年期间几乎所有人口增长都将发生在城市地区。在一个需要解决全球限制的星球上,要有效和公平地容纳这么多城市居民将是困难的,尤其是在没有规划的情况下

What the UN terms more developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan. Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
联合国所说的较发达地区包括欧洲、北美澳大利亚/新西兰日本。欠发达地区包括非洲、亚洲(不包括日本)、拉丁美洲Carbbea n,p usMelanesi a,M icronesi 的所有地区aan dPoynesia.

It can be helpful to think of these urban demographics in terms of two stylised transitions, which are overlapping, interrelated, but distinct. The first,
两个程式化的转变的角度来考虑这些城市人口统计数据可能会有所帮助,它们是重叠的、相互关联的,又是不同的。第一个

known as the demographic transition (Dyson 2010; Rowland 2003, pp 1624), posits that when socio- economic development leads to falling mortality rates in a previously stable (low-income) population, the population will grow until eventually fertility also falls to the point where the population again stabilises at
被称为人口转变(戴森 2010 年;Rowand200 3,p p 1624post s thatwhensoco- 经济发展导致以前稳定的(低收入)人口的死亡率下降人口将增长,直到最终生育率也下降人口再次稳定

Population (billions)

Figure 1. Population estimates of the world 1950–2050 by rural/urban and more/less developed regions
图 1.1950-2050 年按农村/城市和较发达/较欠发达地区划分的世界人口估计

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

Urban LDR Urban MDR Rural LDR

Rural MDR

2

1

0

Source of statistics: United Nations Population Division (2014). What the UN terms more developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan. Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.

lower mortality and fertility rates when income levels are much higher.1
收入水平高得多时,死亡率生育较低1

The second is known as the urban transition. It posits a shift from a predominantly agricultural population living mostly in relatively small and dispersed rural settlements towards a predominantly urban-based population engaged mostly in industrial and service activities (Montgomery et al. 2003).
第二个被称为城市转型。假设主要生活在相对较小和分散的农村定居点农业人口转变为主要从事工业和服务活动的城市人口(Montgomery2003 年)。

Both transitions are extremely complex, and bound up with other dimensions of socio-economic development; they are also interrelated. High rates of population growth can contribute to a shift in population towards urban areas, particularly if the urban economy accommodates the larger labour force productively.
这两种转变都极其复杂,并与社会经济发展的其他方面息息相关;它们也是相互关联的。高人口增长率会导致人口城市地区转移,特别是如果城市经济能够有效地容纳更多的劳动力

Moreover, urbanisation contributes to the demographic transition, as reflected by the lower fertility rates among urban populations.
此外,城市化有助于人口结构转变,反映在城市人口较低的生育上。

The first set of rows in Table 1 illustrates the changing overall population growth rates for the major regions of the world, and these conform roughly to the demographic transition. Although population growth
1的第一组行说明了世界主要地区不断变化的总体人口增长率,这些行大致符合人口转变尽管人口增长

rates are now falling in all regions, European population growth rates are close to zero, whereas population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa are still well above two per cent. Growth rates in Asia and Latin America have been declining particularly rapidly, with Asia’s decline having started more recently.
现在所有地区的增长率都在下降欧洲的人口增长率接近于零,而撒哈拉以南非洲的人口增长率仍远高于 2%。亚洲和拉丁美洲的增长率下降得特别快,其中亚洲下降最近才开始的。

These differences are consistent with: Europe having some of the highest incomes per capita and having virtually completed its demographic transition; sub- Saharan Africa having some of the lowest per capita incomes and still being in the midst of its transition; and Asia and Latin America having intermediate income levels, with Asia catching up in recent decades. North America’s population growth rate may seem higher than its developmental indicators might lead one to expect, but this is in part because of international immigration into the region.
这些差异与以下方面是一致的:欧洲的人均收入最高,并且几乎完成了人口转型;撒哈拉以南非洲的人均收入最低仍处于转型阶段;亚洲拉丁美洲的收入水平中等,亚洲在近几十年来迎头赶上。北美的人口增长率似乎高于其发展指标的预期,但这部分是由于国际移民进入该地区

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

19

1 References to the second demographic transition by demographic researchers generally refer not to the urban transition, but to a subsequent transition that is held to be occurring in relatively wealthy countries, which involves sub-replacement fertility (Lesthaeghe 2010). This second transition is beyond the scope of this discussion, as are the more complex versions of the first transition.
人口学研究人员第二次人口转变引用通常是指城市转变,是指被认为发生在相对富裕的国家,涉及次更替生育率Lesthaeghe2010)。第二个转换超出了本文讨论的范围第一个转换更复杂的版本也是如此

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URBANISATION CONCEPTS AND TRENDS
城市化概念和趋势

Table 1. Estimates of population growth rates, urbanization rates and urban population growth rates (all in % per annum) by region for decades between 1950–2050
1.1950 年至 2050 年间按地区划分人口增长率城市化城市人口增长率(均每年 %为单位)的估计

1950–1960

1960–1970

1970–1980

1980–1990

1990–2000

2000–2010

2010–2020

2020–2030

2030–2040

2040–2050

Population growth rates
人口增长率

World
世界

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲

2.1

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

Northern Africa

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.8

Asia
亚洲

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.2

Europe
欧洲

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.0

–0.1

–0.2

-0.2

Latin America and the Caribbean
拉丁美洲加勒比地区

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.3

Northern America
美洲

1.8

1.3

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

Oceania
大洋洲

2.2

2.2

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.9

Urbanization rates
城市化率

World
世界

1.3

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.5

Sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲

3.3

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

Northern Africa

2.0

1.6

1.1

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

Asia
亚洲

1.9

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.0

0.7

0.6

Europe
欧洲

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Latin America and the Caribbean
拉丁美洲加勒比地区

1.8

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

Northern America
美洲

0.9

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Oceania
大洋洲

0.7

0.6

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

Urban population growth rates
城市人口增长率

World
世界

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.0

Sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲

5.5

4.6

4.9

4.8

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.9

Northern Africa

4.7

4.4

3.6

3.6

2.5

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.4

Asia
亚洲

3.9

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.0

3.0

2.3

1.6

1.1

0.8

Europe
欧洲

2.0

1.8

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

Latin America and the Caribbean
拉丁美洲加勒比地区

4.6

4.2

3.6

3.0

2.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.5

Northern America
美洲

2.7

1.8

1.0

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.6

Oceania
大洋洲

3.0

2.9

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

Source of population and urbanization statistics: United Nations Population Division (2014). The figures are compound annual growth rates.
人口城市化统计来源联合国人口(2014)。这些数字复合增长率

12www.iied.org

The second set of rows in Table 1 contains the urbanisation rates, which together with Table 2 reflect movement along the urban transition. Asia is
表 1 中的第二组行包含城市化率,它们与表 2 一起反映了城市转型过程中的移动亚洲

currently the fastest urbanising region, with an average urbanisation rate estimated at 1.4 per cent this decade, with China in particular urbanising and growing economically very rapidly.
目前是城市化速度最快的地区,十年的平均城市化估计1.4%,尤其是中国的城市化和经济增长非常迅速。

Sub-Saharan Africa is also still urbanising at about 1.3 per cent, and its urbanisation rate is declining more slowly than Asia’s, with the result that by the 2020s, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be urbanising faster than Asia. With the exception of North Africa, all the
撒哈拉以南非洲的城市化率仍约为 1.3%,而且其城市化率下降速度比亚洲慢,因此,到 2020 年代,撒哈拉以非洲的城市化速度预计将超过亚洲。所有

other regions are urbanising at well under half a per cent per annum, which is consistent with their all having had more than two-thirds of their populations living in urban areas in 2010 (see Table 2).
其他地区的城市化率每年远低于%,这与2010 年超过 2/3 的人口居住在城市地区的情况一致(见2)。

The third set of rows in Table 1, the urban population growth rates are approximately the sum of the other two: urban growth rates are a combination of population growth rates and urbanisation rates. Sub-Saharan Africa’s 4.0 per cent urban annual growth rate during the current decade (2010–2015) is the highest of
表 1 中的第三组行,城市人口增长率大约其他两行的总和城市增长率人口增长率和城市化率的组合。撒哈拉以南非洲地区在当前十年(2010-2015 )的城市增长率4.0%,

any region, despite being well below the 5.5 per cent registered in the 1950s. More than half of this growth can be accounted for by its high overall population growth rate. Asia, by way of contrast, has a lower (2.3 per cent) urban population growth rate, but more than half of this growth reflects urbanisation.
任何地区,尽管低于1950 年代5.5%,但这种增长一半以上可以归因于其较高的总体人口增长率相比之下,亚洲的城市人口增长率较低(2.3%)其中一半以上的增长反映了城市化。

Although the demographic and urban transitions can help make sense of the statistics summarised in Tables 1 and 2, the underlying relationships and drivers are still unclear, and even to the extent that the generalisations
尽管人口和城市转型有助于理解表 1表 2 中总结的统计数据但潜在的关系驱动因素仍然不清楚,甚至概括

that the transitions postulate do hold, they have limited predictive power or direct policy relevance. There is still considerable debate over the principal shifts in the demographic transition, including why, when and for whom health improves and mortality rates decline
转变假设确实成立,但它们预测能力直接的政策相关性是有限的。关于人口结构转变的主要变化包括健康状况改善的原因时间和人员以及死亡率下降仍然存在相当大的争论

(Deaton 2013), and whether the primary driver of fertility decline is, for example, changes in education (Lutz and KC 2011), urbanisation (Martine, Alves and Cavenaghi 2013) or better access to contraception (Cleland et
(Deaton2013),以及生育率下降的主要驱动因素是否教育的变化(LutzKC 2011)、城市化(Martine、Alves 和 Cavenaghi2013)更好的避孕机会(Clelandet

al. 2012).
al.2012 年)。

The relationships between the two transitions are also poorly understood, with many treating them as largely independent, but some presenting the urban transition as primarily driven by or indeed a component of the demographic transition (Dyson 2011). Moreover, as described in more detail below, the relationship between urbanisation and socio-economic development is interpreted in widely divergent ways, even if proponents of urbanisation as a positive force have become more vocal in recent years (e.g. Glaeser 2011b; UNFPA 2007; World Bank 2009).
人们对这两种转变之间的关系知之甚少,许多人认为它们在很大程度上是独立的,有些人城市转变描述为主要由人口转变驱动或实际上是人口转变的一个组成部分(Dyson 2011)。此外,如下文更详细地描述的那样,城市化和社会经济发展之间的关系大相径庭的方式解释,即使城市化作为一种积极力量的支持者近年来变得更加直言不讳(例如 Glaeser 2011b;联合国人口基金 2007 年;世界银行2009 年)。

Too much of a focus on the generalities of the demographic and urban transition models can hide the human struggles involved in urbanisation; the conflicts it engenders, the opportunities it creates, and the enormous individual and collective ingenuity required to overcome the challenges it brings. Demographers
过分关注人口城市转型模型的普遍性可能会掩盖城市化所涉及的人类斗争;它产生的冲突,它创造的机会,以及克服带来的挑战所需的巨大的个人集体的聪明才智人口统计学家

sometimes point out that there are two ways that people come to contribute to the urbanisation statistics: by migrating from rural to urban locations; or (explaining a smaller but significant share of urbanisation) by living in locations that are being reclassified from rural to urban.
有时指出人们通过两种方式为城市化统计数据做出贡献:从农村迁移到城市地区;或者(解释了城市化中较小但很大的份额)生活在农村重新分类到城市的地方

Table 2. Urbanization levels (percent urban) 1950–2050 by geographical region
表 2.1950-2050 年按地理区域划分的城市化水平(城市百分比

GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
地理区域

1950

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

World
世界

30

37

43

52

60

66

Sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲

11

18

27

35

45

55

Northern Africa

26

37

46

50

56

63

Asia
亚洲

18

24

32

45

56

64

China
中国

12

17

26

49

69

76

India
印度

17

20

26

31

39

50

Europe
欧洲

52

63

70

73

77

82

Latin America and the Caribbean
拉丁美洲加勒比地区

41

57

71

78

83

86

Northern America
美洲

64

74

75

81

84

87

Oceania
大洋洲

62

71

71

71

71

74

Source of statistics: United Nations Population Division (2014)
资料来源联合国人口(2014)

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URBANISATION CONCEPTS AND TRENDS
城市化概念和趋势

But this presents urbanisation as a relatively passive process, involving one decision to move, or perhaps no moves at all. In fact, people often move back and forth between and among rural and urban areas. Urbanisation occurs as much through decisions not to go back to rural areas as it is through decisions to move to town.
但这也将城市化呈现为一个相对被动的过程,涉及一个搬迁决定,或者可能根本没有搬迁。事实上,人们经常农村城市地区之间来回移动城市化是通过决定不回到农村地区和通过决定搬到城镇来实现的。

Moreover, reclassification is linked to population growth in previously rural localities. Migration is likely to be a bigger factor in the growth of many low-income (usually informal) settlements in some peri-urban areas, and even in a large share of large villages becoming urban, than in the growth of existing urban areas.
此外,重新分类以前农村地区的人口增长有关。在一些城郊地区,甚至很大一部分村庄变成城市化,迁移可能是许多低收入(通常是非正式的)定居点增长的更大因素在现有城市地区的增长中。

Moreover, conformity to the demographic and urban transition models can also hide the enormous variety of forms urbanisation can take. Urbanisation is very open- ended process, locally and globally. At the local level, it is difficult to predict which towns and cities will succeed and prosper, and which will decline; and what the consequences will be for the urban and rural economies and environments. Seemingly small differences in initial conditions, and in the choices taken and changes imposed along the way, can make all the difference.
此外,符合人口和城市转型模型也可能掩盖城市化可以采取的巨大形式城市化在本地全球范围内都是非常开放的过程地方一级,很难预测哪些城镇成功和繁荣,哪些会衰落;以及对城市农村经济的影响是什么。环境。初始条件、所做选择和沿途施加的改变看似微小的差异可以产生所有的不同。

It is difficult to predict the increasingly global economic and environmental consequences of the system of cities that form the core of the world economy and
很难预测构成世界经济核心

its dominant sources of culture. And it is particularly difficult to disentangle the role of urbanisation in transforming the world we live in from the economic, cultural and technological shifts that tend to accompany urbanisation.
它的主要文化来源尤其难以将城市化在改变我们生活的世界方面的作用与往往伴随着urbanisati 的经济、文化和技术转变区分开来。

Reading-into-Writing Formative – Summary and Synthesis Table
Reading-into-Writing Formative – 总结和综合表

IFY Reading-into-Writing Formative Assessment Summary and Synthesis Table
IFY Reading-into-Writing 形成性评估总结和综合表

Theme
主题

Text 1 Summary
文本 1 摘要

Text 2 Summary
文本 2 摘要

Synthesis of Text 1 and 2
文本 1 和 2 的综合

What are the links between the texts?
文本之间有什么联系?

How does Text 2 agree with, extend or refute the ideas in Text 1?
文本 2 如何同意、扩展或反驳文本 1 中的想法?

A definition of ‘urbanisation’
“城市化”的定义

Current global trends
当前全球趋势

Current regional trends
当前区域趋势

Major causes of urbanisation
城市化的主要原因

Your reflection on / response to the ideas within the text.
您对文本中想法的反思/回应。

Essay
文章

Word count:
字数

Reference List
参考列表