POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN  电力发展计划

MESSAGE OF THE SECRETARY
秘书致辞

Through a steadfast focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and technological advancement, the power industry will not only secure the nation’s energy future but also serve as a cornerstone of sustainable and inclusive development. This transformational journey reflects our shared aspiration for a stronger, more resilient Philippines.
通过坚定不移地关注可再生能源、能源效率和技术进步，电力行业不仅将确保国家能源的未来，还将成为可持续和包容性发展的基石。这一转型历程反映了我们的共同愿望，即建设一个更强大、更有韧性的菲律宾。

CONTENTS  目 录

1. Electricity Demand and Supply … 13
   电力需求与供应 ... 13
   1.1 Peak Demand and Electricity Consumption … 13
   1.2 Installed Capacity and Gross Generation … 15
   1.3 Issued Endorsement for Power Generation Plants and Projects under the EVOSS System … 17
   1.4 Coal Moratorium Updates … 17
   1.5 Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) Implementation … 19
   1.6 Formulation of the Decommissioning and Mothballing Policy … 20
2. Transmission and System Operation … 21
   2.1 Existing Transmission Facilities … 21
   2.1 现有输电设施...... 21
   2.2 Transmission Projects … 21
   2.3 Ancillary Services - Competitive Selection Process … 22
   2.4 Issued Endorsement for Transmission Projects under the EVOSS System … 23
   2.5 Direct Connection Updates … 23
   2.5 直接连接更新 ... 23
3. Distribution … 23  分发 ... 23
   3.1 Number of Customers … 23
   3.1 客户数量...... 23
   3.2 Capital Expenditures … 24
   3.2 资本支出...... 24
   3.3 Distribution Utilities - Competitive Selection Process … 25
4. Supply … 25  供应 ... 25
   4.1 Retail Competition and Open Access Updates … 25
   4.2 Net Metering … 26
   4.2 净计量...... 26
   4.3 Green Energy Option Program … 26
5. Electricity Market … 27  电力市场 ... 27
   5.1 Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) Mindanao … 27
   5.2 Reserve Market … 27
   5.2 储备市场...... 27
   5.3 Preferential Dispatch for Renewable Energy … 27
6. Missionary Electrification … 28
   传教士电气化...... 28
   6.1 Demand and Supply Statistics … 28
   6.2 Off-Grid Transmission and Substation Systems … 29
   6.2.1 Existing Transmission and Substation Systems … 29
   6.2.2 Off-Grid Transmission and Substation System Projects … 29
   6.3 Missionary Electrification Development Plan (MEDP) Publication … 30
7. Total Electrification … 31
   全面电气化 ... 31
   7.1 Total Household Electrification by 2028 … 31
   7.1.1. 2022 Household Electrification Status … 32
   7.1.1.
   7.1.2. Addressing Barriers to Program Implementation … 33
   7.1.2.
   7.2 Grid and Off-Grid Electrification. … 36
   7.2 电网和离网电气化.... 36
   7.2.1. Grid … 36
   7.2.1.网格 ... 36
   7.2.2 Off-Grid … 36
   7.2.2 离网 ... 36
   7.3 Energy Regulations (ER) 1-94 Program Update … 41
   7.4 Indigenous People/Indigenous Cultural Communities … 42
8. Overarching Policies and Program Implementation … 43
   总体政策和计划实施...... 43
   8.1 EVOSS Additional Process Flows … 43
9. Major Policies Issued Related to the Electric Power Industry … 44
   CHAPTER 2. POWER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2023-2050 … 49
   第 2 章 电力需求与供应展望2023-2050 年电力需求与供应展望...... 49
10. Methodology … 50  方法 ... 50
11. Data Inputs … 52  数据输入 ... 52
    2.1 Data and Assumption … 52
    2.2 Electricity Sales Forecast … 53
    2.3 Peak Demand Forecast … 55
    2.3 高峰需求预测...... 55
    2.4 Generator Parameters … 56
    2.4 发电机参数 ... 56
    2.5 Capacity Additions … 56
12. CEM Simulation … 60  CEM 模拟 ... 60
    3.1 CEM Settings … 60
    3.1 CEM 设置 ... 60
    3.2 Reserves … 61
    3.2 储备金...... 61
    3.3 Nodal Assumptions … 61
    3.3 节点假设...... 61
13. Power Demand and Supply Outlook … 62
    4.1 Scenarios … 62
    4.2 Results … 62
    4.2 结果...... 62
    a) Reference Scenario … 64
    a) 参考方案...... 64
    b) Clean Energy Scenario 1 (CES 1) - Low Offshore Wind … 73
    b) 清洁能源方案 1（CES 1）--低海上风力...... 73
    c) Clean Energy Scenario 2 (CES 2) - High Offshore Wind … 82
14. Committed and Indicative Power Projects Update … 91
    已承诺和指示性发电项目最新情况 ... 91
15. Committed Power Projects and Associated Transmission Projects … 94
    已承诺的电力项目和相关输电项目 ... 94
    6.1 Luzon … 94
    6.1 吕宋岛...... 94
    6.2 Visayas … 97
    6.2 米沙鄢群岛...... 97
    6.3 Mindanao. … 98
    6.3 棉兰老岛... 98
    CHAPTER 3. POWER SECTOR ROADMAP 2023-2050 … 100
    第 3 章.
16. Generation … 101  世代 ... 101
17. Transmission and System Operation … 107
18. Distribution … 110  分发 ... 110
19. Supply … 114  供应 ... 114
20. Electricity Market … 117
    电力市场 ... 117
21. Off-Grid Development … 120
    离网发展 ... 120
22. Total Electrification … 123
    全面电气化 ... 123
23. Overarching Policies and Program … 128
    总体政策和计划 ... 128

TABLES  表格

FIGURES  数字

Figure 1. Actual Peak Demand and Demand Forecast (Year 2021 and 2022) … 13
图 1.实际高峰需求和需求预测（2021 年和 2022 年）...... 13
Figure 2. 2019 to 2022 Electricity Consumption, in GWh … 14
图 2. 2019 至 2022 年用电量（单位：千兆瓦时）...... 14
Figure 3. 2022 Electricity Consumption per Sector in GWh, and 2021-2022 Growth Rate … 14
图 3. 2022 年各部门用电量（千兆瓦时）及 2021-2022 年增长率...... 14
Figure 4. 2022 Installed Capacity and Percent Shares… 15
Figure 5. 2022 Installed Capacity, in MW Capacity … 15
Figure 6. 2021 and 2022 Gross Power Generation per Technology, in GWh … 16
Figure 7. 2022 Off-Grid Demand and Supply Statistics… 28
Figure 8. 2022 Off-Grid Total Demand as of 31 December 2022 … 28
图 8. 截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 2022 年离网总需求...... 28
Figure 9. MEDP Objectives… 30
图 9.MEDP 目标...... 30
Figure 10. National Total Electrification Framework… 31
图 10.国家全面电气化框架...... 31
Figure 11. Household Electrification Status, 2021 - 2022 … 32
图 11.2021 - 2022 年家庭电气化状况...... 32
Figure 12. PVM-SHS Installations per Funding Sources … 38
图 12.
Figure 13. EVOSS Additional Process Flow… 43
图 13.EVOSS 附加流程...... 43
Figure 14. Generation of Models/Simulation … 51
图 14.生成模型/模拟...... 51
Figure 15. Modeling Structure… 51
图 15.建模结构...... 51
Figure 16. Existing Island Interconnections and Transmission Line Interconnection Projects … 61
图 16.现有岛屿互联和输电线路互联项目...... 61
Figure 17. Reference - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook … 64
图 17.
Figure 18. Reference - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology … 65
图 18.
Figure 19. Reference - Luzon Power Generation Mix … 66
图 19.参考 - 吕宋岛发电组合...... 66
Figure 20. Reference - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook … 67
图 20.
Figure 21. Reference - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology … 68
图 21.
Figure 22. Reference - Visayas Power Generation Mix … 69
图 22.
Figure 23. Reference - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook… 70
图 23.
Figure 24. Reference - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology … 71
图 24.
Figure 25. Reference - Mindanao Power Generation Mix … 72
图 25.
Figure 26. CES 1 - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook… 73
图 26.
Figure 27. CES 1 - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology … 74
图 27.
Figure 28. CES 1 - Luzon Power Generation Mix… 75
图 28.
Figure 29. CES 1 - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook… 76
图 29.
Figure 30. CES 1 - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology … 77
图 30.
Figure 31. CES 1 - Visayas Power Generation Mix … 78
图 31.
Figure 32. CES 1 - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook … 79
图 32.
Figure 33. CES 1 - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology … 80
图 33.
Figure 34. CES 1 - Mindanao Power Generation Mix… 81
图 34.
Figure 35. CES 2 - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook… 82
图 35.
Figure 36. CES 2 - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology … 83
图 36.
Figure 37. CES 2 - Luzon Power Generation Mix… 84
图 37.
Figure 38. CES 2 - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook… 85
图 38.
Figure 39. CES 2 - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology … 86
图 39.
Figure 40. CES 2 - Visayas Power Generation Mix … 87
图 40.
Figure 41. CES 2 - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook … 88
图 41.
Figure 42. CES 2 - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology … 89
图 42.
Figure 43. CES 2 - Mindanao Power Generation Mix… 90
图 43.

Figure 45. Indicative Power Projects as of May 2023… 93
图 45.

ACRONYMS  术语

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  执行摘要

• Energy security, resiliency, affordability, and sustainability;
  能源安全、复原力、可负担性和可持续性；
• Transparent and fair playing field in the power industry; and,
  电力行业透明、公平的竞争环境；以及
• Electricity access for all.
  人人都能用上电。

CHAPTER 1.
POWER SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS, 2021-2022
第 1 章 2021-2022 年电力行业要点

CHAPTER I  第一章

Power Sector Highlights 2021-2022
2021-2022 年电力部门要点

1. Electricity Demand and Supply
1.电力需求与供应

1.1 Peak Demand and Electricity Consumption
1.1 高峰需求和用电量

In 2021, the Philippines’ total noncoincidental peak demand’ reached 16,036 MW, which slightly fell below the 2021 peak demand forecast by $1.8\mathrm{\%}$$1.8\mathrm{\%}$1.8%1.8 \% (297 MW). Meanwhile, in 2022, the total noncoincidental peak demand was recorded at 16,596 MW, which is $3.2\mathrm{\%}$$3.2\mathrm{\%}$3.2%3.2 \% ( 542 MW ) lower than the projected peak demand forecast (Figure 1). The 2021 actual peak demand has surpassed the pre-pandemic actual peak demand (2019) of $15,581\mathrm{MW}$$15,581\mathrm{MW}$15,581MW15,581 \mathrm{MW} and the pandemic actual peak demand (2020) of $15,282\mathrm{MW}$$15,282\mathrm{MW}$15,282MW15,282 \mathrm{MW}. The increase in peak demand was attributed to the recovery of crucial economic sectors, with increased mobility and the resumption of partial to full normalization of economic activities.
2021 年，菲律宾的非偶发高峰需求总量达到 16,036 兆瓦，略低于 2021 年的高峰需求预测 $1.8\mathrm{\%}$$1.8\mathrm{\%}$1.8%1.8 \% (297 兆瓦)。与此同时，2022 年的非偶发高峰需求总量为 16,596 兆瓦，比预测的高峰需求量低 $3.2\mathrm{\%}$$3.2\mathrm{\%}$3.2%3.2 \% （542 兆瓦）（图 1）。2021 年的实际高峰需求超过了大流行前（2019 年）的 $15,581\mathrm{MW}$$15,581\mathrm{MW}$15,581MW15,581 \mathrm{MW} 和大流行时（2020 年）的 $15,282\mathrm{MW}$$15,282\mathrm{MW}$15,282MW15,282 \mathrm{MW} 。峰值需求的增加归因于关键经济部门的复苏，流动性增加，经济活动部分或全部恢复正常。

surpassed the pre-pandemic observed levels in 2019. The resurgence in electricity consumption across these sectors serves as a clear indicator of the country’s economic rebound, showcasing resilience and adaptability in the wake of the challenges posed by the pandemic.
2019 年的用电量超过了疫情发生前的水平。这些部门用电量的回升清楚地表明了该国经济的反弹，展示了在大流行病带来的挑战之后的恢复力和适应力。

Figure 2. 2019 to 2022 Electricity Consumption, in GWh
图 2. 2019 至 2022 年用电量（单位：千兆瓦时
The surge in COVID-19 cases in 2020 and 2021 led to a notable rise in the electric consumption category under “Others” sector. This increase was primarily contributed by the utilization of public and government infrastructures and establishment, repurposed as quarantine and isolation facilities to mitigate and control the spread of the epidemic in the country. As the nationwide efforts focused on vaccine distribution gained momentum in 2022 and all the while achieving herd immunity, the use of these facilities was lesser, resulting in a $41\mathrm{\%}$$41\mathrm{\%}$41%41 \% decline or 2,871 GWh consumption level by 2022. The overall use of power increased by about $5.1\mathrm{\%}$$5.1\mathrm{\%}$5.1%5.1 \%, or $5,401\mathrm{GWh}$$5,401\mathrm{GWh}$5,401GWh5,401 \mathrm{GWh}, between 2021 and 2022. This surge in power consumption was notably driven by the resumption of normal operations across various sectors. Specifically, residential, industrial, and commercial sectors had an upward trend, showcasing sustained growth as shown in Figure 3.
2020 年和 2021 年，COVID-19 病例激增，导致 "其他 "部门的电力消费类别显著增加。这一增长主要是由于利用公共和政府基础设施和机构，将其重新用作检疫和隔离设施，以减轻和控制疫情在该国的蔓延。随着 2022 年全国范围内以疫苗分发为重点的工作取得进展，同时实现群体免疫，这些设施的使用减少，导致到 2022 年 $41\mathrm{\%}$$41\mathrm{\%}$41%41 \% 耗电量下降或达到 2,871 千兆瓦时的水平。2021 年至 2022 年期间，总体用电量增加了约 $5.1\mathrm{\%}$$5.1\mathrm{\%}$5.1%5.1 \% 或 $5,401\mathrm{GWh}$$5,401\mathrm{GWh}$5,401GWh5,401 \mathrm{GWh} 。电力消耗量激增的主要原因是各行各业恢复了正常运营。具体而言，如图 3 所示，住宅、工业和商业部门的用电量呈上升趋势，显示出持续增长的态势。

1.2 Installed Capacity and Gross Generation
1.2 装机容量和总发电量

The country’s total grid installed capacity ${}^2$${}^2$^(2){ }^{2} increased by $5.1\mathrm{\%}(1,376\mathrm{MW}$$5.1\mathrm{\%}(1,376\mathrm{MW}$5.1%(1,376MW5.1 \% ~(1,376 \mathrm{MW} ) from 26,882 MW in 2021 to 28,258 MW in 2022. Figure 4 visually represents the distribution of these capacities in 2022 according to fuel or power plant types. The increase in the grid installed capacity can be attributed to the commercial operations of 759 MW coal, 279 MW natural gas, and 350 MW RE, most of which comes from biomass and solar farms.
全国电网总装机容量 ${}^2$${}^2$^(2){ }^{2} 增加了 $5.1\mathrm{\%}(1,376\mathrm{MW}$$5.1\mathrm{\%}(1,376\mathrm{MW}$5.1%(1,376MW5.1 \% ~(1,376 \mathrm{MW} ），从 2021 年的 26882 兆瓦增至 2022 年的 28258 兆瓦。图 4 根据燃料或发电厂类型直观地显示了这些装机容量在 2022 年的分布情况。电网装机容量的增加可归因于 759 兆瓦煤炭、279 兆瓦天然气和 350 兆瓦可再生能源的商业运营，其中大部分来自生物质能和太阳能发电场。

Figure 4. 2022 Installed Capacity and Percent Shares
图 4. 2022 年装机容量和所占百分比

In terms of share, coal-fired power plants continued to dominate the mix at 59.6%, which is $1.1\mathrm{\%}$$1.1\mathrm{\%}$1.1%1.1 \% higher than its share in 2021. This is followed by RE (22.1%), natural gas (16.0%), and oil-based (2.3%) gross generation as depicted in Figure 6.
就份额而言，燃煤发电厂继续占主导地位，占 59.6%， $1.1\mathrm{\%}$$1.1\mathrm{\%}$1.1%1.1 \% 高于 2021 年的份额。其次是可再生能源（22.1%）、天然气（16.0%）和石油（2.3%）总发电量，如图 6 所示。

1. In 2021 , the gross generation share for Biomass was at $1.4\mathrm{\%}$$1.4\mathrm{\%}$1.4%1.4 \%, Solar at $1.4\mathrm{\%}$$1.4\mathrm{\%}$1.4%1.4 \%, and Wind at $1.2\mathrm{\%}$$1.2\mathrm{\%}$1.2%1.2 \%.
   2021 年，生物质能的总发电量份额为 $1.4\mathrm{\%}$$1.4\mathrm{\%}$1.4%1.4 \% ，太阳能为 $1.4\mathrm{\%}$$1.4\mathrm{\%}$1.4%1.4 \% ，风能为 $1.2\mathrm{\%}$$1.2\mathrm{\%}$1.2%1.2 \% 。
2. In 2022, the gross generation share for Biomass was at $1.2\mathrm{\%}$$1.2\mathrm{\%}$1.2%1.2 \%, Solar at $1.6\mathrm{\%}$$1.6\mathrm{\%}$1.6%1.6 \%, and Wind at $0.9\mathrm{\%}$$0.9\mathrm{\%}$0.9%0.9 \%.
   2022 年，生物质能的总发电量份额为 $1.2\mathrm{\%}$$1.2\mathrm{\%}$1.2%1.2 \% ，太阳能为 $1.6\mathrm{\%}$$1.6\mathrm{\%}$1.6%1.6 \% ，风能为 $0.9\mathrm{\%}$$0.9\mathrm{\%}$0.9%0.9 \% 。

The performance of the electric power industry improved substantially in 2021 and 2022, underscoring a robust and dynamic recovery of the national economy. The DOE was instrumental in this resurgence, successfully addressing the increasing electricity demand by facilitating the commissioning of an additional 1,376 MW installed capacity in the country’s energy mix. Crucially, this substantial increase was made possible through collaborative efforts within the power sector, showcasing the coordinated endeavors of industry participants to fortify the nation’s energy mix.
2021 年和 2022 年，电力行业的表现大幅改善，彰显了国民经济复苏的强劲活力。能源部在这一复苏过程中发挥了重要作用，通过促进国家能源组合中新增 1,376 兆瓦装机容量的投产，成功地满足了日益增长的电力需求。最重要的是，这一大幅增长是通过电力部门内部的协作努力实现的，展示了行业参与者为加强国家能源结构而做出的协调努力。

1.3 Issued Endorsement for Power Generation Plants and Projects under the EVOSS System
1.3 EVOSS 系统下已签发的发电厂和项目认可书

1.4 Coal Moratorium Updates
1.4 煤炭暂停更新

1.5 Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) Implementation
1.5 电网运行与维护计划（GOMP）的实施

1.6 Formulation of the Decommissioning and Mothballing Policy
1.6 制定退役和停产政策

2. Transmission and System Operation
2.传输和系统运行

2.1 Existing Transmission Facilities
2.1 现有输电设施

2.2 Transmission Projects
2.2 输电项目

2.3 Ancillary Services - Competitive Selection Process
2.3 辅助服务--竞争性遴选程序

2.4 Issued Endorsement for Transmission Projects under the EVOSS System
2.4 EVOSS 系统下已签发的输电项目认可书

2.5 Direct Connection Updates
2.5 直接连接更新

3. Distribution  3.分发

3.1 Number of Customers
3.1 客户数量

3.2 Capital Expenditures
3.2 资本支出

3.3 Distribution Utilities - Competitive Selection Process
3.3 配电公用事业--竞争性遴选程序

4. Supply  4.供应

4.1 Retail Competition and Open Access Updates
4.1 零售竞争和开放获取最新情况

4.2 Net Metering  4.2 净计量

4.3 Green Energy Option Program
4.3 绿色能源选择计划

5. Electricity Market  5.电力市场

5.1 Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) Mindanao
5.1 棉兰老岛电力现货批发市场（WESM）

5.2 Reserve Marke†  5.2 储备市场