European equities have charged out of the gate in 2025 as if they were Alexander the Great’s prized steed Bucephalus, rising almost 11%, according to a Société Générale analysis. This is despite Goldman Sachs, for one, forecasting just 0.8% growth in the Euro Area this year, and it’s happening in the face of potentially ruinous tarifs américains.
根據法國興業銀行的分析，歐洲股市在 2025 年開局表現強勁，彷彿是亞歷山大大帝的愛馬布塞法勒斯，上漲了近 11%。儘管高盛預測今年歐元區的增長僅為 0.8%，並且面臨可能具有毀滅性的美國關稅，這一漲勢依然持續。

Taking Stock

So with the Euro Area growing at a slug’s pace and President Donald Trump talking tariffs, why are European equities partying? Start with the fact that slow growth, which has lasted for two years, means bargain valuations, something that’s drawn back foreign investors who withdrew from Europe at the start of the war in Ukraine. It doesn’t hurt that JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have cautioned US stocks, after two barnburner years, could be overvalued.
那麼，在歐元區增長緩慢且美國總統唐納德·特朗普談論關稅的情況下，為什麼歐洲股市還在狂歡？首先，持續兩年的緩慢增長意味著估值低廉，這吸引了在烏克蘭戰爭初期撤離歐洲的外國投資者回歸。此外，摩根大通和高盛警告稱，在經歷了兩年的火爆行情後，美國股票可能被高估，這也無傷大雅。

But there is also a symphony of supportive economic fundamentals. The fall in the euro in recent months, down to $1.05 from $1.12 in September, is a good sign for Euro Area exports. The rate-cut cycle has continued at the European Central Bank, while the US Federal Reserve has pressed the pause button. And tariff saber-rattling from America has made some investors optimistic Europe will unify around major projects like defense and artificial intelligence (on Monday, Euro Area defense stocks rallied as the continent’s leaders gathered in Paris for an emergency summit on Ukraine). 
但還有一系列支持性的經濟基本面因素。歐元在近幾個月從 9 月的 1.12 美元下跌至 1.05 美元，這對歐元區的出口來說是一個好兆頭。歐洲央行繼續降息，而美聯儲則按下了暫停鍵。美國的關稅威脅也讓一些投資者樂觀地認為，歐洲將圍繞國防和人工智能等重大項目團結起來（週一，歐元區國防股上漲，歐洲領導人齊聚巴黎參加烏克蘭緊急峰會）。

If things seem chirpier than expected so far, that doesn’t mean Europe is worry free: 
如果目前的情況看起來比預期更樂觀，這並不意味著歐洲沒有擔憂：

• Goldman Sachs analysts said companies on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index beat fourth-quarter profit estimates by 4%, or “well above” historical averages — recent earnings beats have included luxury French fashion house Hermès, German conglomerate Siemens, and Swiss food and drink giant Nestlé. But companies have also slashed full-year projections by roughly 0.5% since the start of the year in what Goldman dubbed “pessimism” likely driven by tariff concerns.
  高盛分析師表示，Stoxx 歐洲 600 指數的成分公司第四季度盈利超出預期 4%，或“遠高於”歷史平均水平——最近的盈利超預期包括法國奢侈時尚品牌愛馬仕、德國綜合企業西門子和瑞士食品飲料巨頭雀巢。但自年初以來，公司也將全年預期下調了約 0.5%，高盛稱這種“悲觀情緒”可能由關稅擔憂驅動。
• There are possible conditions that could offset these fears. It’s very likely that the conservative, business-friendly Christian Democratic Union will be the largest party in the Bundestag following this Sunday’s German election. And an end to the war in Ukraine would remove a considerable amount of geopolitical turmoil.
  有一些可能的條件可以抵消這些擔憂。保守且對商業友好的基督教民主聯盟很可能在本週日的德國大選後成為聯邦議院的最大黨派。而烏克蘭戰爭的結束將消除相當大的地緣政治動盪。

What’s In a Name? Europe’s not alone in trying to find its footing in our new world of tariffs, duties and levies. In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump offered a dictionary-bending broad definition of tariffs by other countries that he said he would impose counter-tariffs on — these included value-added taxes, subsidies, and regulatory barriers. Nomura analysts said this likely exposes most major Asian economies to the counter-tariff threat, and they gave Trump’s new, unclear definition a nickname: “black box.”
名字裡有什麼？歐洲並不是唯一一個在我們這個充滿關稅、稅費和徵稅的新世界中尋找立足點的國家。在週五的 Truth Social 帖子中，特朗普提供了一個字典式的廣泛定義，涵蓋了他將對其他國家實施反制關稅的各種稅收——包括增值稅、補貼和監管壁壘。野村證券分析師表示，這可能使大多數主要亞洲經濟體面臨反制關稅的威脅，並給特朗普的新、不明確的定義起了個綽號：“黑箱”。

Uranium doesn’t grow on trees, which is generally a good thing but its scarcity has been murder on the suddenly ascendant nuclear industry.
鈾並不會長在樹上，這通常是一件好事，但其稀缺性對突然崛起的核能產業來說卻是致命的。

The sector has been soaring on an atomic tailwind thanks to the energy demands of AI-hungry tech companies, but dwindling uranium supplies could gum things up, the Financial Times reported on Monday. On top of a diminishing pile of uranium, there’s also the awkward geopolitical fact that its top producer, Kazakhstan, is chummier with neighbors Russia and China than it is with western countries eager to throw up new nuclear power plants — or reactivate old ones.
由於對 AI 需求旺盛的科技公司的能源需求，該行業在原子能風潮中飆升，但鈾供應的減少可能會阻礙發展，《金融時報》週一報導。除了鈾供應減少之外，還有一個尷尬的地緣政治事實，即其主要生產國哈薩克與鄰國俄羅斯和中國的關係比與急於建造新核電站或重啟舊核電站的西方國家更為密切。

Supply Chain Reaction

The world’s uranium supply entered a surplus phase following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, when world powers got an uncomfortable reminder of what’s at stake when a nuclear reactor malfunctions. Pre-Fukushima, the price of uranium peaked at $136 per pound, per Nikkei Asia, but after the accident, the bottom fell out of the market and that price point plummeted to between $20 and $40. In 2024, the rush for nuclear power drove the price of uranium to post-Fukushima highs: It hit $91 per pound in January last year.
2011 年福島核事故後，全球鈾供應進入過剩階段，當時世界大國再次意識到核反應堆故障的嚴重性。據《日經亞洲》報導，福島事故前，鈾價曾達到每磅 136 美元的峰值，但事故發生後，市場崩盤，價格暴跌至每磅 20 至 40 美元之間。2024 年，核能需求的激增推動鈾價達到福島事故後的高點：去年 1 月達到每磅 91 美元。

As supply tightens and with demand still high, nuclear costs can’t help but rise. It’s nothing the industry hasn’t wrestled with before, but geopolitics cast a long shadow over the uranium supply chain:
隨著供應緊張且需求仍然高企，核能成本不可避免地上升。這並不是該行業以前沒有應對過的問題，但地緣政治對鈾供應鏈投下了長長的陰影：

• “Russian and Chinese players have been very keen to secure access to resources in central Asia and Africa, creating a very aggressive competitive environment,” Benjamin Godwin, partner at Prism Strategic Intelligence, told the FT.
  「俄羅斯和中國的玩家一直非常熱衷於確保在中亞和非洲的資源獲取，創造了一個非常激烈的競爭環境，」Prism Strategic Intelligence 的合夥人 Benjamin Godwin 告訴《金融時報》。
• Cory Kos, vice president of investor relations at Canadian uranium producer Cameco, agreed that the company was seeing “more flows of material into China,” adding: “As an industry, we’re living off borrowed time […]  inventory that’s running out has kept the supply chain going.”
  加拿大鈾生產商 Cameco 的投資者關係副總裁 Cory Kos 同意該公司看到「更多材料流向中國」，並補充道：「作為一個行業，我們正在靠借來的時間生存……正在耗盡的庫存維持了供應鏈的運轉。」

Oh, Canada: Kazakhstan wasn’t always the world’s biggest uranium producer. Until 2008, Canada held the world’s uranium crown, and according to another FT report, it’s trying to reclaim it. It’s now the world’s second-largest producer, and Canadian mining companies are racing to set up new mines to capture the nuclear zeitgeist. As Canadian energy and natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson told the FT, “Not only does Canada mine enough uranium to fuel our domestic reactors, but we are also the only country in the G7 that can supply uranium to fuel our allies’ reactors.” Wilkinson is probably hoping uranium doesn’t end up on any new lists of tariffs Trump is drawing up.
哦，加拿大：哈薩克並非一直是全球最大的鈾生產國。直到 2008 年，加拿大一直保持著全球鈾生產的領先地位，根據《金融時報》的另一篇報導，加拿大正試圖重新奪回這一地位。它現在是全球第二大生產國，加拿大礦業公司正在競相建立新礦以抓住核能時代的潮流。正如加拿大能源和自然資源部長 Jonathan Wilkinson 告訴《金融時報》的那樣，「加拿大不僅開採足夠的鈾來為我們的國內反應堆提供燃料，而且我們還是 G7 中唯一能夠為盟友的反應堆提供鈾的國家。」Wilkinson 可能希望鈾不會出現在特朗普正在制定的任何新關稅清單上。

New data on corporate loans don’t make for soothing bedtime reading. 
關於企業貸款的新數據並不適合作為安眠的睡前讀物。

Even with a booming economy and stock market in the past two years, credit card delinquencies and auto loan defaults have reached decade plus-highs. And now US companies are missing loan payments at the highest rate in almost eight years, according to new data.
即使在過去兩年經濟和股市蓬勃發展的情況下，信用卡逾期和汽車貸款違約率仍達到了十年來的新高。根據新數據，現在美國公司錯過貸款還款的比率也達到了近八年來的最高水平。

Nobody’s Default But My Own

Corporate credit has been a sturdy and dependable revenue source for banks in the wake of the pandemic, especially compared with other forms of lending.
在疫情過後，企業信貸一直是銀行穩健且可靠的收入來源，尤其是與其他形式的貸款相比。

After Covid restrictions on defaults were lifted, credit card and auto loan delinquencies almost immediately spiked in 2023, with households burdened by a highly inflationary environment. Commercial real estate defaults also skyrocketed, given the semi-permanent pivot away from pre-pandemic professional life (no matter how much Jamie Dimon wishes otherwise).
在新冠疫情期間對違約的限制解除後，信用卡和汽車貸款逾期率在 2023 年幾乎立即飆升，家庭在高度通脹的環境下負擔沉重。商業地產違約率也急劇上升，這是由於疫情前的職業生活模式發生了半永久性的轉變（無論傑米·戴蒙多麼希望情況並非如此）。

Corporate delinquency rates have risen much more slowly, but even their reliability appears to be slipping, if only a little. A key reason is interest rates, which are historically still very high at 4.5%, despite last year’s Fed cuts. Corporate bank loan delinquencies are especially susceptible to the Fed rate because corporate loans are typically made with variable interest rates — meaning they fluctuate based on market conditions:
企業逾期率的上升速度要慢得多，但即使是它們的可靠性似乎也在下滑，哪怕只是輕微的。一個關鍵原因是利率，儘管去年美聯儲降息，但利率在歷史上仍然處於 4.5%的高位。企業銀行貸款逾期率尤其容易受到美聯儲利率的影響，因為企業貸款通常採用浮動利率——這意味著它們會根據市場條件波動：

• Corporate borrowers were a month or more late on $28 billion in debt payments to banks at the end of 2024, according to new data collected by analysts at BankRegData and reported by the Financial Times on Monday. That marked an increase of $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter and $5.4 billion year-over-year.
  根據 BankRegData 分析師收集並由《金融時報》週一報導的新數據，企業借款人在 2024 年底對銀行的債務還款逾期一個月或以上的金額達到了 280 億美元。這標誌著第四季度增加了 22 億美元，同比增加了 54 億美元。
• The delinquency rate on loans by American banks to domestic and foreign companies rose to 1.3% at the end of last year, the highest since the first quarter of 2017.
  美國銀行對國內外企業的貸款逾期率在去年年底上升至 1.3%，這是自 2017 年第一季度以來的最高水平。

Expect the Expected: Companies expected sustained relief from high interest rates after inflation slowed last year and the Fed began lowering its key rate. But recent data — notably consumer prices rising 3% in January, well above the central bank’s 2% target — have left the Fed’s policymakers in a holding pattern, one where many businesses are stuck with higher variable rates on their loans. To make matters worse, analysts and economists have warned that any potential trade wars could inflame inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts even longer.
預期中的預期：在去年通脹放緩且美聯儲開始降低關鍵利率後，企業預期能持續從高利率中獲得緩解。但最近的數據——尤其是 1 月份消費者價格上漲 3%，遠高於央行 2%的目標——使得美聯儲的政策制定者處於觀望狀態，許多企業因此陷入貸款浮動利率較高的困境。更糟糕的是，分析師和經濟學家警告稱，任何潛在的貿易戰都可能加劇通脹，導致美聯儲推遲降息更長時間。