China Has Broken the ‘Critical Minerals’ Market
中国已打破“关键矿物”市场

Billionaire Elon Musk called them the “new oil,” complaining about their “insane” cost. The White House dangled subsidies to whoever could boost supply. European politicians scrambled for a response, also promising financial support for projects. Only a few months ago, the prospect of shortages of elements including cobalt, lithium and a few other metals stoked apprehension as prices of the elements needed to make the batteries crucial for the energy transition climbed.
亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克称它们为“新石油”，抱怨其“疯狂”的成本。白宫向能够增加供应的任何人提供补贴。欧洲政治家们争相作出回应，也承诺为项目提供财政支持。仅仅几个月前，包括钴、锂和其他几种金属在内的元素短缺的前景引发了担忧，因为制造能源转型所需电池的元素价格飙升。

Not anymore. China has broken the market for these so-called critical minerals.
不再如此。中国已经打破了这些所谓关键矿物的市场。

From their most recent peak in 2022-2023, prices of cobalt and lithium have plunged more than 75% after Chinese miners boosted production to levels that were previously unimaginable. Cobalt, long considered a commodity at risk of perennial shortages, is now so abundant that its price is hovering near a 20-year low.
从 2022-2023 年最近的高峰以来，钴和锂的价格已暴跌超过 75%，因为中国矿工将产量提升到以前无法想象的水平。钴，长期以来被认为是一种面临长期短缺风险的商品，现在变得如此丰富，以至于其价格徘徊在 20 年来的低点附近。

The critical minerals moniker no longer evokes concern about shortfalls. But be careful: Low prices are no guarantee of security of supply. More than ever, China dominates production of cobalt and lithium, reinforcing its enormous influence on the batteries essential for electric vehicles and other gadgets. Worse, prices have fallen so low that non-Chinese miners would struggle to make a profit, reducing the incentive for Western investors to build their own sources. The price crash is another strike against one of the most hyped commodity narratives — that the energy transition to cleaner electricity from fossil fuels makes sky-high metals prices inevitable.
关键矿物的称谓不再引发对短缺的担忧。但要小心：低价格并不能保证供应安全。中国在钴和锂的生产中占据主导地位，进一步加强了其对电动车和其他设备所需电池的巨大影响。更糟的是，价格已经跌得如此之低，以至于非中国矿商难以盈利，减少了西方投资者建立自己资源的动力。价格崩溃是对最被炒作的商品叙事之一的又一次打击——即从化石燃料向更清洁电力的能源转型使得金属价格飙升成为必然。

The reality is far more complex. Clearly, the energy transition means a lot more demand for particular commodities as the world is going to need millions of new high-performance batteries. While most metals contend with annual demand growth of 2% to 3%, cobalt and lithium have enjoyed consumption growth of 10% to 20% per year. From the demand side, critical minerals are the envy of the commodities industry. Supply, though, has also expanded at breakneck speeds.
现实要复杂得多。显然，能源转型意味着对特定商品的需求大幅增加，因为世界将需要数百万个新型高性能电池。虽然大多数金属的年需求增长在 2%到 3%之间，但钴和锂的消费增长率达到了每年 10%到 20%。从需求方面来看，关键矿物是商品行业的羡慕对象。然而，供应也以惊人的速度扩张。

Cobalt is paradigmatic. For many years, Glencore Plc., the London-listed commodity giant, dominated the market. But Chinese companies soon followed it into the Democratic Republic of Congo, home of the world’s largest reserves. There, a Chinese company known today as CMOC Group Ltd. has boosted output beyond what many in the industry thought was possible in such a short timeframe.
钴是典范。多年来，伦敦上市的商品巨头嘉能可（Glencore Plc.）主导了市场。但中国公司很快跟随其进入刚果民主共和国，这里拥有世界上最大的储量。在那里，一家今天被称为中矿资源集团有限公司（CMOC Group Ltd.）的中国公司在如此短的时间内将产量提升到了许多业内人士认为不可能的水平。

Annual output in the global cobalt market has reached about 230,000 metric tons, as CMOC has expanded its production to more than 100,000 tons this year from about 15,000 tons five years ago. CMOC has rapidly expanded its massive Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines in southern Democratic Republic of Congo. In the process, the Chinese mining giant, which counts battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. as one of its shareholders, has become the world’s top cobalt miner, outpacing Glencore.
全球钴市场的年产量已达到约 230,000 公吨，CMOC 今年的产量已从五年前的约 15,000 公吨扩大到超过 100,000 公吨。CMOC 迅速扩展了其位于刚果民主共和国南部的大型 Tenke Fungurume 和 Kisanfu 矿。在此过程中，这家中国矿业巨头（其股东之一是电池制造商宁德时代）已成为全球最大的钴矿商，超越了 Glencore。

Unsurprisingly, the production shock has overwhelmed demand, prompting inventories to accumulate everywhere. Even the most optimistic think it would take between 18 to 24 months to clear the surplus. More circumspect observers talk about five years or even longer.
毫不奇怪，生产冲击已经压倒了需求，导致库存到处积累。即使是最乐观的人也认为清理过剩需要 18 到 24 个月。更为谨慎的观察者则谈到五年甚至更长的时间。

Why would it take so long to rebalance the market? Shouldn’t production respond quickly to low prices, as in a typical boom-bust commodity cycle? The problem is that cobalt isn’t your typical commodity. Virtually no one digs solely for cobalt; instead, about 98% of the world’s output is a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Hence, the price that really matters isn’t what cobalt fetches, but rather what copper and nickel do. And both command high enough prices that miners have every incentive to keep digging. Thus, low prices aren’t the cure for cobalt overproduction.
为什么市场重平衡需要这么长时间？生产不应该像典型的繁荣-萧条商品周期那样迅速对低价格做出反应吗？问题在于钴并不是典型商品。几乎没有人单独开采钴；相反，全球约 98%的产量是铜和镍开采的副产品。因此，真正重要的价格不是钴的价格，而是铜和镍的价格。而且这两者的价格都足够高，以至于矿工有充分的动力继续开采。因此，低价格并不是钴过剩的解决办法。

The result has been the collapse in cobalt prices. From the most recent peak of more than $80 per kilogram in mid-2022, it has fallen to about
钴价的结果是崩溃。从 2022 年中期超过每公斤 80 美元的最新高峰，已降至约
$25 recently, hovering near its lowest level in two decades. In real terms, adjusted by inflation, cobalt is the cheapest it’s been in at least half a century.
最近钴的价格为 25 美元，徘徊在二十年来的最低水平附近。按实际价值计算，经过通货膨胀调整，钴的价格是至少五十年来最低的。

The best chance the cobalt market has to rebalance is to patiently wait for demand to catch up with the burst of recent extra supply. It doesn’t help that sales of electric vehicles have disappointed so far this year everywhere except China, reducing demand for batteries.
钴市场重新平衡的最佳机会是耐心等待需求赶上最近额外供应的激增。今年到目前为止，除了中国，电动车的销售在各地都令人失望，减少了对电池的需求。

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But low commodity prices will certainly help to give demand an impetus. The episodic price spikes during the last two decades prompted a huge engineering effort to reduce cobalt usage. The money spent in research and development created new battery chemistries such as NMC 811 that lowered the cobalt content in the battery’s cathode to just 10%, down from 20% in earlier batteries known as NMC 622, or even 30% in NMC 523.
但低商品价格肯定会为需求提供动力。在过去二十年中，偶发的价格飙升促使了大量工程努力以减少钴的使用。用于研发的资金创造了新的电池化学，如 NMC 811，将电池阴极中的钴含量降低到仅 10%，而早期的电池 NMC 622 中的钴含量为 20%，甚至 NMC 523 中的钴含量为 30%。

At current cobalt prices, R&D dollars are going elsewhere, and the industry isn’t trying to cut the commodity usage. Indeed, the opposite is true, with executives telling me they see signs of the return of higher cobalt content for some battery applications.
在当前钴价下，研发资金正在流向其他地方，行业并没有试图减少商品使用。实际上，情况正好相反，管理层告诉我，他们看到某些电池应用中钴含量回升的迹象。

The market for lithium has followed a similar pattern, with Chinese companies boosting supply so quickly that they overwhelmed the market. Not only is more of the metal being dug up, Chinese companies are also getting very good at recycling old batteries, creating an extra layer of supply. The result has been the same as with cobalt: The market has cratered. Benchmark lithium prices have fallen to about $11,000 per metric ton, down from the most recent peak of almost $70,000 per ton in early 2023.
锂市场也遵循了类似的模式，中国公司迅速增加供应，导致市场供过于求。不仅更多的金属被开采，中国公司在回收旧电池方面也变得非常熟练，创造了额外的供应层。结果与钴相同：市场崩溃。基准锂价格已降至约每公吨 11,000 美元，较 2023 年初接近 70,000 美元的最新峰值下降。

As with many other commodities, China inflated a bubble in critical minerals. Its domestic demand for batteries was strong — and its dominance of the supply chain was so large that many outside China were prompted to stockpile cobalt and lithium, spurred on by ominous warnings from US and European policymakers. For a brief period, demand overwhelmed supply.
与许多其他商品一样，中国在关键矿物上制造了泡沫。其对电池的国内需求强劲——而其在供应链中的主导地位如此之大，以至于许多中国以外的国家被迫囤积钴和锂，受到美国和欧洲政策制定者的严峻警告的刺激。在短暂的时期内，需求压倒了供应。

But what China did, China has also undone. It went all in on boosting supply, and the result has been a mighty crash. But don’t be fooled by the current low prices; while they may not recover anytime soon, China’s absolute dominance of critical minerals pose a clear and persistent danger to the future production of the batteries needed to wean the world off fossil fuels.
但中国所做的，中国也已撤回。它全力以赴地提升供应，结果却是一次巨大的崩溃。但不要被当前的低价格所迷惑；虽然它们可能不会很快恢复，但中国在关键矿物方面的绝对主导地位对未来生产所需的电池构成了明显而持续的威胁，以帮助世界摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。

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