Stock valuation 股票估值
What determines the value of a stock? 是什麼決定了股票的價值?
supply / demand 供應/需求
cash flow 現金流量
dividends 股息
brand value 品牌價值
P/E 市盈率
interest rates Fed 利率 美聯儲
Net income earnings projections 淨收入盈利預測
Learning Objectives for Stock Valuation 股票估值的學習目標
Goal: 目標:
How to value stocks. 如何評估股票價值。
The dividend discount model 股利貼現模型
A general framework for thinking about the value of stock 思考股票價值的一般架構
Investment and Growth 投資與成長
Multistage growth model 多階段成長模型
Price/Earnings ratio and growth prospects 市盈率與成長前景
Optimal growth path 最佳成長路徑
■ Valuation using comparable firms analysis 使用可比公司分析進行估值
Example: One-year holding period valuation 範例:一年持有期估值
You plan to buy a stock in 3 M and hold it for one year. 您計劃在 3 M 購買一隻股票並持有一年。
At the end of the year, you expect the stock price for 3 M will be $86\$ 86 per share. 年底時,您預計 3 M 的股票價格為每股 $86\$ 86 。
This stock will also pay a dividend of $1.92\$ 1.92 per share at the end of the year. 這隻股票也會在年底支付每股 $1.92\$ 1.92 的股利。
Investments with equivalent risks have an expected return of r_(E)=12%r_{E}=12 \% 具有同等風險的投資,其預期報酬率為 r_(E)=12%r_{E}=12 \%
What are you willing to pay for the stock today? 您今天願意為這隻股票付多少錢?
0 P_(0)P_{0}
Solutifn 解決方案
Today’s Price =P_(0)=(Div_(1)+P_(1))/(1+r_(E))=(1.92+86.00)/(1.12)=78.50=P_{0}=\frac{\operatorname{Div}_{1}+P_{1}}{1+r_{E}}=\frac{1.92+86.00}{1.12}=78.50 今日價格 =P_(0)=(Div_(1)+P_(1))/(1+r_(E))=(1.92+86.00)/(1.12)=78.50=P_{0}=\frac{\operatorname{Div}_{1}+P_{1}}{1+r_{E}}=\frac{1.92+86.00}{1.12}=78.50
Dividend Yield =(" Div "_(1))/(P_(0))=(1.92)/(78.50)=2.45%=\frac{\text { Div }_{1}}{P_{0}}=\frac{1.92}{78.50}=2.45 \% 股利收益率 =(" Div "_(1))/(P_(0))=(1.92)/(78.50)=2.45%=\frac{\text { Div }_{1}}{P_{0}}=\frac{1.92}{78.50}=2.45 \%
Capital Gain Rate =(P_(1)-P_(0))/(P_(0))=(86.00-78.50)/(78.50)=9.55%=\frac{P_{1}-P_{0}}{P_{0}}=\frac{86.00-78.50}{78.50}=9.55 \% 資本收益率 =(P_(1)-P_(0))/(P_(0))=(86.00-78.50)/(78.50)=9.55%=\frac{P_{1}-P_{0}}{P_{0}}=\frac{86.00-78.50}{78.50}=9.55 \%
One-year Valuation Formula 一年估值公式
Today’s price is the present value of the expected dividend and the expected price at the end of the year: 今天的價格是預期股息與年底預期價格的現值:
r_(E)=ubrace((" Div "_(1))/(P_(0))ubrace)_("Dividend Yield ")+ubrace((P_(1)-P_(0))/(P_(0))ubrace)_("Capital Gain Rate ")r_{E}=\underbrace{\frac{\text { Div }_{1}}{P_{0}}}_{\text {Dividend Yield }}+\underbrace{\frac{P_{1}-P_{0}}{P_{0}}}_{\text {Capital Gain Rate }}
Growth in earnings 收益成長
What drives earnings and dividend growth? 是什麼驅使獲利與股利成長?
Investment! 投資!
Modeling growth 模擬成長
How can we use the tools that we have developed so far to assess the impact of investment and growth on value? 我們如何運用目前已開發的工具來評估投資與成長對價值的影響?
Earnings, investment, and dividends 收益、投資與股利
Let’s use some notation 讓我們使用一些符號 Div_(t)=\operatorname{Div}_{t}= Dividends per share at the end of year t;t ; Div_(t)=\operatorname{Div}_{t}= 年底每股股利 t;t ; EPS_(t)=\mathrm{EPS}_{t}= Earnings (CF from operations) per share at the end of year tt; Inv_(t)=\operatorname{Inv}_{t}= New investment per share at the end of year tt. EPS_(t)=\mathrm{EPS}_{t}= 年末每股盈餘(營運所得 CF) tt ; Inv_(t)=\operatorname{Inv}_{t}= 年末每股新增投資 tt .
Earnings are either paid out as dividends or invested, so 賺來的錢會以股利的方式派發或投資,因此
Growth in earnings comes from new investment 盈利增長來自新投資
{:[" ngs comes trom new investment this "],[" Earn next year - Earn this "],[EPS_(t+1)-EPS_(t)=lnv_(t)xxubrace(" Return on New Investment "ubrace)_(r_("ROI "))]:}\begin{aligned}
& \text { ngs comes trom new investment this } \\
& \text { Earn next year - Earn this } \\
& \mathrm{EPS}_{t+1}-\mathrm{EPS}_{t}=\operatorname{lnv}_{t} \times \underbrace{\text { Return on New Investment }}_{r_{\text {ROI }}}
\end{aligned}
Investment comes out of earnings 投資來自收益
So the earnings growth rate is 因此盈利成長率為
{:[" (g) Earnings Growth Rate "=(" Change in Earnings ")/(" Earnings ")=b xxr_("ROI ")],[(EPS_(++1)-EPS_(+))/(EPS_(+))]:}\begin{aligned}
& \text { (g) Earnings Growth Rate }=\frac{\text { Change in Earnings }}{\text { Earnings }}=b \times r_{\text {ROI }} \\
& \frac{E P S_{++1}-E P S_{+}}{E P S_{+}}
\end{aligned}
The return on new investment and (un)profitable growth 新投資的回報與 (非) 盈利性成長
What rule should we apply if we want to create the most value for the firm? 如果我們想為公司創造最大價值,應該運用什麼規則?
The return on new investment and (un)profitable growth 新投資的回報與 (非) 盈利性成長
What rule should we apply if we want to create the most value for the firm? 如果我們想為公司創造最大價值,應該運用什麼規則?
THE NPV RULE 淨現值規則
The return on new investment and (un)profitable growth 新投資的回報與 (非) 盈利性成長
What rule should we apply if we want to create the most value for the firm? 如果我們想為公司創造最大價值,應該運用什麼規則?
THE NPV RULE 淨現值規則
How does it apply in this setting? 在此環境中如何應用?
" NPV of New Investment "=(Inv_(t)xxr_(ROI))/(r_(E))-Inv_(t)=lnv_(t)((r_(ROI)-r_(E))/(r_(E)))\text { NPV of New Investment }=\frac{\operatorname{Inv}_{t} \times r_{\mathrm{ROI}}}{r_{E}}-\operatorname{Inv}_{t}=\operatorname{lnv}_{t}\left(\frac{r_{\mathrm{ROI}}-r_{E}}{r_{E}}\right)
Assuming that investment leads to a permanent increase in earnings. 假設投資會導致收益永久增加。
The return on new investment and (un)profitable growth 新投資的回報與 (非) 盈利性成長
What rule should we apply if we want to create the most value for the firm? 如果我們想為公司創造最大價值,應該運用什麼規則?
THE NPV RULE 淨現值規則
How does it apply in this setting? 在此環境中如何應用?
" NPV of New Investment "=(Inv_(t)xxr_(ROI))/(r_(E))-lnv_(t)=lnv_(t)((r_(ROI)-r_(E))/(r_(E)))\text { NPV of New Investment }=\frac{\operatorname{Inv}_{t} \times r_{\mathrm{ROI}}}{r_{E}}-\operatorname{lnv}_{t}=\operatorname{lnv}_{t}\left(\frac{r_{\mathrm{ROI}}-r_{E}}{r_{E}}\right)
Assuming that investment leads to a permanent increase in earnings. 假設投資會導致收益永久增加。
When should firms choose to invest in generating new earning, i.e., set b > 0b>0 ? 公司應該何時選擇投資於產生新的賺錢機會,也就是設定 b > 0b>0 ?
{:[NPV > 0quad" if ROI>r "],[" (IRR rale) "]:}\begin{gathered}
N P V>0 \quad \text { if ROI>r } \\
\text { (IRR rale) }
\end{gathered}
Pay out all ∼g=0\sim g=0qquad\qquad 支付所有 ∼g=0\sim g=0qquad\qquad
Example: Cutung Dividends for Profitable Growth 範例:減少股利以獲取利潤成長
Crane Sporting Goods (Ticker: CSG) expects to have earnings per share of $6\$ 6 in the coming year. Crane Sporting Goods (Ticker: CSG) 預計來年每股盈餘為 $6\$ 6 。
Rather than reinvest these earnings and grow, CSG plans to pay out all of its earnings as a dividend. CSG 並未將這些盈利進行再投資和增長,而是計劃將其盈利全部作為股息派發。
With these expectations and no growth, CSG’s current share price is $60\$ 60. 在這些預期和沒有增長的情況下,CSG 目前的股價是 $60\$ 60 。
Now suppose that CSG could cut its dividend payout rate to 75%75 \% for the foreseeable future and use the retained earnings to open new stores. 現在假設南玻可以在可預見的未來將股利支付率降低到 75%75 \% ,並將留存收益用於開設新店。
The return on CSG’s investment in these stores is expected to be 12%12 \%. ROL 預計 CSG 在這些店鋪的投資回報為 12%12 \% 。ROL
■ Assuming CSG’s expected return on equity is unchanged, what effect would this new policy have on CSG’s stock price? 假設 CSG 的預期股本報酬率維持不變,這項新政策對 CSG 的股票價格有何影響?
Hint: the above assumptions imply CSG’s expected return on equity is 10%10 \%. 提示:上述假設意味著南玻的預期股本回報率為 10%10 \% 。
Disount ^("E "){ }^{\text {E }} inte 卸載 ^("E "){ }^{\text {E }} inte
Your Answers 您的答案
P=(D_(1))/(r-g)quad{:[" Example Solution "],[" How to estimate Cran's's equity cost of capital. "]:}quad=(6)/(10%)=60P=\frac{D_{1}}{r-g} \quad \begin{aligned}
& \text { Example Solution } \\
& \text { How to estimate Cran's's equity cost of capital. }
\end{aligned} \quad=\frac{6}{10 \%}=60