Russia is facing more than 16,000 sanctions — so why hasn't its economy buckled?

As Vladimir Putin spoke to a crowd in early February attending the "Everything for Victory" forum in Tula, a city 180 kilometres south of Moscow, he joked that he wanted to give the sanction-imposing West a "well-known gesture," but wouldn't because there were "a lot of girls" in the audience, and implied it would be rude. 
2 月初，弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 在莫斯科以南 180 公里的图拉市参加“一切为了胜利”论坛时向人群发表讲话时开玩笑说，他想向实施制裁的西方做出“众所周知的姿态”，但不会，因为观众中有“很多女孩”，并暗示这是不礼貌的。

Instead, the Russian president boasted about the country's economy, and its ability to ramp up its military industrial complex, in the face of unprecedented sanctions. 
相反，俄罗斯总统吹嘘该国的经济，以及在面临前所未有的制裁的情况下扩大军事工业综合体的能力。

"They predicted a recession, failure, collapse," he told the crowd, which included factory employees, on Feb. 2.
2 月 2 日，他对包括工厂员工在内的人群说：“他们预测经济会衰退、失败、崩溃。”

"The entire economy has demonstrated resilience." 
“整个经济都表现出了韧性。”

Putin doesn't need to campaign on the strength of Russia's finances — he's slated to be re-elected next week for his fifth term as president, because his serious challengers have been barred or prevented from running.
普京不需要依靠俄罗斯的财政实力来竞选——他定于下周再次当选，第五次担任总统，因为他的主要挑战者已被禁止或阻止参选。

But he has happily pointed out that Russia's economy is expected to grow 2.6 per cent this year, outpacing the G7, according to the International Monetary Fund. 
但他高兴地指出，根据国际货币基金组织的数据，俄罗斯经济今年预计将增长 2.6%，超过七国集团。

WATCH | How Russian arms companies get past sanctions: 
观看 |俄罗斯军火公司如何摆脱制裁：

Ukrainian officer explains how Russia gets around sanctions
乌克兰官员解释俄罗斯如何规避制裁

23 days ago

Duration 1:09

Serpen, an alias for a high-ranking Ukrainian soldier, explains how Russian arms companies use proxy companies to bypass Western sanctions.
瑟彭是一名乌克兰高级士兵的化名，他解释了俄罗斯军火公司如何利用代理公司绕过西方制裁。

Over the past two years, Russia's government has managed to steer through sanctions and limit inflation, while investing nearly a third of its budget in defence spending. 
过去两年，俄罗斯政府成功地通过了制裁并限制了通货膨胀，同时将近三分之一的预算投资于国防开支。

It's also been able to increase trade with China and sell its oil to new markets, in part by using a shadow fleet of tankers to skirt a price cap that Western countries had hoped would reduce the country's war chest. 
它还能够增加与中国的贸易并向新市场出售石油，部分原因是利用影子油轮船队来规避西方国家希望减少该国战争资金的价格上限。

"I think for the next 12 to 18 months, [Putin] has enough resources ... to continue to fulfil his war machine," said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser with Russia's Central Bank.
俄罗斯央行前顾问亚历山德拉·普罗科彭科 (Alexandra Prokopenko) 表示：“我认为，在未来 12 到 18 个月内，[普京] 有足够的资源……继续履行他的战争机器。”

Prokopenko is now based in Berlin, having left her job and the country in the initial days of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. 
普罗科彭科目前居住在柏林，她在 2022 年 2 月开始全面入侵乌克兰的最初几天就离开了工作和国家。

"There is a big debate here in Europe: What was done wrong, and what else can we do to fine-tune the sanction regime?"
“欧洲存在一场大辩论：哪里做错了，我们还能做些什么来微调制裁制度？”

Economic resilience 经济韧性

After Russia launched its invasion, the ruble tumbled and Western countries blocked transactions with its central bank, freezing $300 billion US in sovereign assets. 
俄罗斯发动入侵后，卢布暴跌，西方国家封锁了与其央行的交易，冻结了 3000 亿美元的美国主权资产。

Additional sanctions have been introduced in the subsequent years: more than 16,000 since Feb. 24, 2022, according to U.S.-based Castellum.AI. Some impact the economy more than others — over 11,000 of them are aimed at individuals, and about 4,600 at entities including financial institutions. A few hundreds others are directed at ships and aircraft. 
随后几年又出台了更多制裁措施：根据美国 Castellum.AI 的数据，自 2022 年 2 月 24 日以来，制裁措施已超过 16,000 项。其中一些对经济的影响比其他更大——其中超过 11,000 个针对个人，约 4,600 个针对包括金融机构在内的实体。还有数百个针对船只和飞机的。

European airspace also closed to Russian planes, and hundreds of Western companies pulled out of Russia or curtailed their operations there. 
欧洲领空也对俄罗斯飞机关闭，数百家西方公司撤出俄罗斯或减少在那里的业务。

But today, the latest iPhones and MacBooks are on Russia's shelves, because the government and its businesses have been mostly able to adapt.
但如今，最新的 iPhone 和 MacBook 出现在俄罗斯的货架上，因为政府及其企业基本上已经能够适应。

Prokopenko calls Russia's senior central bank officials Putin's "generals" because the president has relied on their financial leadership while navigating what she calls an "impossible tri-lemma": funding the war, maintaining business as usual and creating macroeconomic stability. 
普罗科彭科称俄罗斯央行高级官员为普京的“将军”，因为总统在应对她所说的“不可能的三难困境”时依赖他们的财务领导：为战争提供资金、维持一切照常和创造宏观经济稳定。

She said the bank's decision at the start of the war to hike its key interest rate to 20 per cent and introduce capital controls helped stabilize the ruble. 
她表示，该银行在战争开始时决定将主要利率提高至 20% 并实行资本管制，这有助于稳定卢布。

The rate was lowered at one point, but is now pegged at 16 per cent in an effort to control inflation. 
该利率曾一度下调，但现在为控制通胀而定为 16%。

Rising prices   价格上涨

In 2023, surging food prices became a political issue in Russia, especially the price of eggs, which rose by more than 40 per cent last year, and led to shortages in some areas.
2023年，食品价格飙升成为俄罗斯的政治问题，尤其是鸡蛋价格，去年上涨了40%以上，导致部分地区出现短缺。

The government has since scrambled to boost the egg supply by scrapping import duties and sourcing more imports from "friendly countries."
此后，政府努力通过取消进口关税和从“友好国家”采购更多进口产品来增加鸡蛋供应。

"Truth be told, the prices are rising and rising, but I think it is a normal situation for all countries nowadays," says Marina Lubanovskaya, a Moscow-based travel agent who runs a YouTube channel called Made in Russland. 
“说实话，价格不断上涨，但我认为这对当今所有国家来说都是正常情况，”莫斯科旅行社玛丽娜·卢巴诺夫斯卡娅 (Marina Lubanovskaya) 说道，她经营着一个名为“俄罗斯制造”的 YouTube 频道。

Although she says eggs are now about 20 per cent more expensive in Moscow, she's taken videos of grocery stores across Russia in a point to dispel what she calls the "rumours" circulating in Western countries. 
尽管她说现在莫斯科的鸡蛋价格贵了约 20%，但她还是拍摄了俄罗斯各地杂货店的视频，以澄清她所说的在西方国家流传的“谣言”。

More than 15 million people live below the poverty line, according official statistics, but she says the sanctions haven't been crippling. 
根据官方统计数据，超过 1500 万人生活在贫困线以下，但她表示制裁并未造成严重影响。

"We live with abundance."

Her videos show full shelves at grocery stores, and an alcohol section with wine from Italy and Crimea, the latter of which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. 

She admits she's had to pivot her travel business to new markets. She previously booked trips for her Russian clients to Europe, but is now booking them to Asia. 

Tilt toward China

Russia has relied on Asia, and specifically China, as a major economic lifeline. 

Half of its oil and petroleum was exported to China in 2023, Russian officials say. And it became China's top oil supplier in 2023, according to Chinese customs data.

Chinese imports have jumped more than 60 per cent since the start of war, as the country has been able to supply Russia with a steady stream of goods including cars and electronic devices.

Trade between the two countries hit $240 billion US in 2023, an increase of over 64 per cent since 2021, before the war.

Exodus of workers

While Russia has turned to new customers abroad, at home it's facing a labour shortage of nearly five million workers in 2023, according to its media reports. 

The country's record-low unemployment rate meant there were "practically no workers left," central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina told lawmakers in November.

"For further growth of the Russian economy, increased labour productivity is needed."

WATCH | Despite sanctions, Western parts are still used in Russian weapons: 

Hackers expose how Russia skirts sanctions for its weapons

15 days ago

Duration 9:33

Despite tight sanctions, Western parts are being used in Russia’s battlefield weapons. CBC’s Ben Makuch meets with Ukrainian hackers who reveal that one arms maker is after Canadian technology and how a complex web of intermediaries make it possible.

Contributing to the shortage are the hundreds of thousands of people who left after the invasion began.

Araz Mamet, a U.S. citizen who was working in Moscow in March 2022, decided to leave the country along with his small team of tech workers. He set up shop at a shared workspace in Baku, the capital of nearby Azerbaijan. 

After a partial mobilization announcement in late 2022, he helped secure a private jet to offer others a chance to get out of Russia by booking a seat for $2,500 US. 

Around 300 or 400 people asked for help. They had to cap it at 110 people, who left Russia in two separate private flights. Hundreds of others made it out to Baku on their own.

While some have since returned to Russia or moved on to other countries, a few hundred remain working out of the shared space for now. 

"I believe if the situation in Russia will change, certainly the majority will go back, because they still have their properties, families and relatives," he said. 

Boosting military production

The labour shortage is particularly acute as the country ramps up military production, with some factories working around the clock in multiple shifts. 

Businesses are also being re-purposed to fulfil lucrative state contracts. 

According to Russian media, a bakery south of Moscow turned part of its floor space into a drone production facility. 

Three malls in the city of Izhevsk, which lies 1,000 kilometres east of Moscow and is already home to weapon maker Kalashnikov, have been taken over by drone manufacturers. 

Russia's ability to keep churning out weaponry and using its oil money to finance it is a pressing problem for Ukraine, which is grappling with a weapons and ammunition shortage, as well as its allies.

But there are no easy steps left when it comes to tightening the sanction regime, Prokopenko says.

"It's a mouse and cat game.

"Any delays in terms of taking decisions about additional sanctions gives Russia the opportunity to adjust its policy and its economy."