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全球半导体
11 April 2025  2025 年 4 月 11 日

Global Semiconductors  全球半导体

Global Semis: China-U.S. Tariff Impact - How would China determine whether chips are originated from the U.S.?
全球半导体:中美关税影响——中国将如何判定芯片是否源自美国?

Ever since the Trump Administration started the tariff war, the market has been getting new information every day on how this may impact each sector. Our previous call summarized the potential impact on US/China semiconductors. Today we focus on further clarification from CSIA (China Semiconductor Industry Association) that suggests how the China Custom could determine the "Country of Origin" of semiconductors for China-U.S. tariffs and the potential impact.
自特朗普政府发动关税战以来,市场每日都在获取关于这场争端对各行业潜在影响的新信息。我们之前的电话会议总结了美中半导体行业可能受到的影响。今天,我们重点关注中国半导体行业协会(CSIA)的最新澄清,该说明提出了中国海关如何判定半导体产品的"原产国"以适用中美关税政策,及其潜在影响。

CSIA suggested in an official disclosure on Apr 10, 2025 that “For integrated circuits, whether packaged or unpackaged, declare the country of origin as the location of the wafer fabrication fab during import customs clearance.” This was a big surprise to the market as investors generally consider the location of packaging to be the country of origin, not the fab, and it is way more difficult to shift fabs and will bring bigger impact. Positive upsides to non-US vendors that could benefit from taking share from US vendors as their pricing in China will likely be impacted.
中国半导体行业协会(CSIA)在 2025 年 4 月 10 日的一份官方披露中建议,“对于集成电路,无论是否封装,在进口清关时申报原产国为晶圆制造工厂所在地。”这一消息令市场大为意外,因为投资者通常认为封装地才是原产国,而非晶圆厂,且转移晶圆厂的难度更大,影响更为深远。对非美国供应商构成利好,因其可能从美国供应商手中抢占份额,后者在中国的定价或将受到影响。

According to CSIA, China Custom determines the "Country of Origin" with below guidance:
根据 CSIA,中国海关依据以下指南判定“原产国”:

  1. If production involves multiple countries (or regions), the goods are considered to originate from where the last substantial transformation occurred.
    若生产涉及多个国家(或地区),则以最后发生实质性改变的地点作为货物原产地。
  2. The criteria for determining substantial transformation primarily rely on a change in tariff classification. If no change in tariff classification, then it will assist by "Ad valorem percentage" and "Manufacturing or processing procedures" etc.
    实质性改变的判定标准主要依据税则归类变化。若无税则归类变化,则辅以“增值百分比”及“制造或加工工序”等方法综合判定。
  3. For packaged or unpackaged IC, the tariff classification is the same (4-digit code 8542 in China), therefore key debate is which step during manufacturing (front or back end) will be used as country of origin for IC. In this case the
    对于已封装或未封装的集成电路,关税分类相同(中国 4 位税号 8542),因此关键争议在于制造过程中的哪个环节(前端或后端)将被用作集成电路的原产国。在这种情况下,
    value add during manufacturing steps
    制造环节中的增值部分
    will become critical, the country with value add >30% could be defined as origin. Since the value add during the front-end process is usually >30%, while the back-end usually <30%, for traditional packaging CSIA’s conclusion is that the location of fab will be determined as origin.
    将变得至关重要,增值超过 30%的国家可被定义为原产地。由于前端工艺的增值通常超过 30%,而后端通常低于 30%,对于传统封装,CSIA 的结论是晶圆厂所在地将被认定为原产地。

For US IDMs (INTC, TXN, ADI etc.) the rules may make it tougher to avoid Chinese tariffs, or at least require some rejiggering of manufacturing locale and logistics. They do have some options however, we summarized the fab location of major US vendors in Exhibit 1; INTC has factories outside the US (Ireland and Israel) as does TXN (China, Japan, Germany), and ADI uses TSMC in Taiwan for some of their volume. For Intel, we worry that they could get it coming and going however, with parts that could wind up tariffed by the Chinese (AMD may have an advantage here), going into products (PCs etc) that today are widely manufactured in China and will at this point be exposed to substantial US tariffs as well.
对于美国集成器件制造商(如英特尔、德州仪器、亚德诺等)而言,新规可能加大其规避中国关税的难度,或至少需要调整制造地点和物流布局。不过它们仍有应对之策,我们在图表 1 中汇总了主要美国厂商的晶圆厂分布:英特尔在美国境外(爱尔兰和以色列)设有工厂,德州仪器在中国、日本、德国也有生产基地,而亚德诺的部分量产芯片交由台积电台湾工厂代工。就英特尔而言,我们担忧其可能面临双重压力——既可能被中国征收关税(这方面 AMD 或具优势),其芯片又用于当前主要在中国制造的终端产品(如个人电脑等),这些产品还将面临美国大幅加征的关税。

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Chinese fabless (Silergy, Hygon) will directly benefit from this, while Chinese foundries (SMIC, Hua Hong) also indirectly benefit. Chinese analog vendors such as Silergy and SG Micro has extensive overlap in product offering compared to TXN, that’s why their ASP dropped by 30% in 2023 when TXN started the price war. The tariff will make TXN’s general purpose analog more expensive at least in the short term and incentivize customers to shift to local vendors whenever possible. Silergy’s valuation is much cheaper than other local peers (Exhibit 7 Exhibit 8), and we think it’s best stock to play this theme now. Hygon should also gain share in low-end CPU from Intel, but likely AMD will take some share away as well, so upside will be smaller. Chinese foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong, Nexchip could benefit in two ways: Chinese fabless share gain will create more demand for Chinese foundries, while U.S. IDMs could potentially outsource more to Chinese foundries to avoid tariff (NXPI is leading this strategy).
中国的无晶圆厂企业(如矽力杰、海光)将直接受益于此,而中国的晶圆代工厂(如中芯国际、华虹)也将间接受益。与德州仪器(TXN)相比,矽力杰和圣邦微等中国模拟芯片厂商在产品线上有大量重叠,因此当 TXN 发起价格战时,它们的平均售价(ASP)在 2023 年下降了 30%。关税至少在短期内会使 TXN 的通用模拟芯片变得更贵,从而促使客户尽可能转向本土供应商。矽力杰的估值远低于其他本土同行(图表 7、图表 8),我们认为目前它是这一主题下的最佳投资标的。海光也应在低端 CPU 领域从英特尔手中夺取份额,但 AMD 可能也会分走一部分份额,因此上行空间较小。中芯国际、华虹、晶合集成等中国晶圆代工厂可能通过两种方式受益:中国无晶圆厂企业的份额增长将为中国的晶圆代工厂创造更多需求,而美国的 IDM 企业可能会将更多订单外包给中国代工厂以规避关税(恩智浦正率先采用这一策略)。

Japan semi companies that compete with US IDMs (esp. Renesas) should also benefit, most notably with potential share gain from US analog/auto semi IDMs. Renesas currently has 28% revenue exposure to China, but for automotive it only has high teens % exposure to Chinese OEMs/tier-1s. Renesas has been trying to gain share there, and the tariff could be a good opportunity. We note that Chinese analog names presence in auto semi, especially auto MCUs, is still very low. Until the domestic suppliers strengthen their capability in auto (which will take years), the Chinese OEMs will need to use more auto MCUs from Renesas (and European suppliers). Sony will also benefit from On SEMI (ON.US, not covered) automotive CMOS Image Sensor business, though this will be small given that ON Semi outsources a lot of wafer manufacturing.
与美国 IDM(尤其是瑞萨)竞争的日本半导体公司也将受益,最显著的是可能从美国模拟/汽车半导体 IDM 手中夺取市场份额。瑞萨目前有 28%的收入来自中国,但在汽车领域,其对中国 OEM/一级供应商的敞口仅为百分之十几。瑞萨一直试图在该市场扩大份额,而关税可能是一个良机。我们注意到,中国本土企业在汽车半导体(尤其是汽车 MCU)领域的市场份额仍然很低。在国内供应商提升汽车领域能力(这将需要数年时间)之前,中国 OEM 将需要使用更多来自瑞萨(及欧洲供应商)的汽车 MCU。索尼也将受益于安森美半导体(ON.US,未覆盖)的汽车 CMOS 图像传感器业务,但由于安森美将大量晶圆制造外包,这部分收益较小。

For TSMC, UMC, Vanguard, MediaTek & Novatek, the impact will be indirect. TSMC has fabs in the US, but they’re a small fraction of TSMC’s overall production & can be for demand in the US. Other companies have no US fabs or have no wafers produced by US fabs. The indirect impact is difficult to assess now as OEMs need time to change designs for different suppliers & suppliers also need time to move wafer fab locations. This mismatch may result in chip price increases, but the cost burden will also reduce demand from OEMs.
对台积电、联电、世界先进、联发科及瑞昱而言,影响将是间接的。台积电在美国设有晶圆厂,但其占整体产能比重很小,且可能专供美国市场需求。其他公司或无美国晶圆厂,或无由美国晶圆厂生产的晶圆。目前间接影响难以评估,因代工厂需时调整设计以适配不同供应商,供应商亦需时迁移晶圆厂址。这种供需错配或导致芯片价格上涨,但成本负担同时会降低代工厂需求。

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE  伯恩斯坦股票代码表

11 Apr 2025  2025 年 4 月 11 日 TTM  过去十二个月 Reported EPS  报告每股收益 Reported P/E (x)  报告市盈率(倍)
Closing  收盘 Price  价格 Rel.  相对
Ticker  股票代码 Rating  评级 Price  价格 Target  目标价 Perf.  表现 2023A  2023 年实际值 2024E  2024 年预测值 2025E  2025 年预测值 2023A  2023 年实际值 2024E  2024 年预测值 2025E  2025 年预测值
688012.CH (AMEC)  中微公司(688012.CH) O CNY  人民币 188.88 300.00 34.3% CNY  人民币 2.89 2.43 3.80 65.4 77.6 49.7
688256.CH (Cambricon)  688256.CH (寒武纪) M CNY  人民币 614.98 470.00 293.3% CNY  人民币 709 2,147 4,312 (297.1) N/M  不适用 316.1
1347.HK (Hua Hong-H)  1347.HK (华虹半导体-H) O HKD  港元 34.40 30.00 123.5% USD  美元 0.19 0.05 0.09 23.4 86.9 50.9
688347.CH (Hua Hong-A)  688347.CH (华虹公司-A 股) O CNY  人民币 52.33 55.00 74.6% USD  美元 0.19 0.05 0.09 37.7 140.2 82.1
688041.CH (Hygon)  688041.CH(海光信息) O CNY  人民币 146.92 150.00 98.0% CNY  人民币 0.54 1.01 1.44 272.1 144.8 102.2
002371.CH (NAURA)  002371.CH(北方华创) O CNY  人民币 457.50 520.00 56.8% CNY  人民币 7.36 12.11 15.53 62.1 37.8 29.5
688072.CH (Piotech)  688072.中国(派欧科技) O CNY  人民币 164.51 260.00 41.4% CNY  人民币 3.54 1.95 2.97 46.5 84.2 55.4
688981.CH (SMIC-A)  688981.中国(中芯国际-A 股) O CNY  人民币 92.90 110.00 125.0% USD  美元 0.11 0.07 0.09 111.5 181.9 139.0
981.HK (SMIC-H)  981.HK(中芯国际-H 股) O HKD  港元 46.95 30.00 224.6% USD  美元 0.11 0.07 0.09 53.2 86.7 66.2
6415.TT (Silergy)  6415.TT(矽力杰) O TWD  新台币 387.50 550.00 3.5% TWD  新台币 5.95 12.38 20.05 65.1 31.3 19.3
AMD  超微半导体 M USD  美元 88.70 125.00 (50.1)% USD  美元 3.31 4.24 4.99 26.8 20.9 17.8
ADI  亚德诺 M USD  美元 178.36 220.00 (12.3)% USD  美元 6.38 7.04 8.17 28.0 25.3 21.8
AVGO  博通 O USD  美元 172.30 250.00 22.6% USD  美元 4.86 6.58 7.61 35.4 26.2 22.6
INTC  英特尔 M USD  美元 19.88 25.00 (49.3)% USD  美元 (0.13) 0.43 1.00 (150.3) 46.4 19.8
NVDA  英伟达 O USD  美元 107.57 185.00 16.6% USD  美元 2.99 4.13 35.9 26.0 20.5
NXPI  恩智浦 M USD  美元 165.59 225.00 (34.3)% USD  美元 13.08 11.87 13.61 12.7 14.0 12.2
QCOM  高通 O USD  美元 134.40 215.00 (25.3)% USD  美元 10.21 11.69 11.78 13.2 11.5 11.4
TXN  德州仪器 U USD  美元 156.60 140.00 (10.6)% USD  美元 5.20 5.04 5.75 30.1 31.1 27.2
AMAT  应用材料公司 O USD  美元 138.24 210.00 (37.2)% USD  美元 8.65 9.34 10.19 16.0 14.8 13.6
LRCX  拉姆研究 (LRCX) O USD  美元 (USD) 66.43 105.00 (34.5)% USD  美元 (USD) 3.03 3.77 4.30 21.9 17.6 15.4
6723.JP (Renesas)  瑞萨电子 (6723.JP) O JPY  日元 1,691.00 3,100.00 (25.2)% JPY  日元 201.47 186.89 257.72 8.4 9.0 6.6
6758.JP (Sony)  6758.JP(索尼) O JPY  日元 3,266.00 4,600.00 39.8% JPY  日元 157.17 193.61 216.23 20.8 16.9 15.1
SONY  索尼 O USD  美元 22.92 24.50 34.2% USD  美元 1.01 1.13 1.28 22.8 20.4 17.9
2330.TT (TSMC)  台积电(TSMC) O TWD  新台币 889.00 1,430.00 7.9% TWD  新台币 45.25 62.68 71.44 5.4 4.4 3.7
TSM  台积电(TSM) O USD  美元 151.13 251.00 0.6% USD  美元 7.04 9.57 10.90 5.6 4.9 4.1
UMC  联华电子 U USD  美元 6.54 4.80 (22.1)% USD  美元 0.75 0.62 0.57 2.3 2.2 1.9
5347.TT (Vanguard)  5347.TT(先锋集团) M TWD  新台币 90.00 100.00 3.1% TWD  新台币 4.50 4.09 4.36 0.0 0.0 0.0
2454.TT (MediaTek)  联发科 (2454.TT) O TWD  新台币 1,385.00 1,820.00 14.9% TWD  新台币 66.94 74.49 97.30 20.7 18.6 14.2
3034.TT (Novatek)  联咏科技 (3034.TT) M TWD  新台币 510.00 500.00 (17.6)% TWD  新台币 38.32 32.30 32.29 13.3 15.8 15.8
ASIAX  亚洲指数 1,214.72
SPX  标普 500 指数 5,268.05
JPL  喷气推进实验室 1,633.47
O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended
O - 跑赢大盘,M - 与市场持平,U - 跑输大盘,NR - 未评级,CS - 暂停覆盖
688256.CH estimate is Revenues (M); AMD, ADI, AVGO, INTC, NVDA, NXPI, QCOM, AMAT, LRCX, 6723.JP estimate is Adjusted EPS; AMD, ADI, AVGO, INTC, NVDA, NXPI, QCOM, AMAT, LRCX, 6723.JP valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); 2330.TT, TSM, UMC, 5347.TT valuation is P/B (x); 6415.TT, AMD, ADI, AVGO, INTC, NXPI, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, LRCX, 6723.JP, 2330.TT, TSM, 2454.TT base year is 2024; NVDA base year is 2025;
688256.CH 预估为收入(百万);AMD、ADI、AVGO、INTC、NVDA、NXPI、QCOM、AMAT、LRCX、6723.JP 预估为调整后每股收益;AMD、ADI、AVGO、INTC、NVDA、NXPI、QCOM、AMAT、LRCX、6723.JP 估值为调整后市盈率(倍);2330.TT、TSM、UMC、5347.TT 估值为市净率(倍);6415.TT、AMD、ADI、AVGO、INTC、NXPI、QCOM、TXN、AMAT、LRCX、6723.JP、2330.TT、TSM、2454.TT 基准年为 2024 年;NVDA 基准年为 2025 年;
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.
资料来源:彭博社,伯恩斯坦预估与分析。

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS  投资影响

Investment Implications  投资影响

Silergy: We rate Silergy Outperform with PT of TWD 550.00
矽力杰:我们给予矽力杰优于大盘评级,目标价 550.00 新台币

Hygon: We rate Hygon Outperform with PT of CNY 150.00.
海光信息:我们给予海光信息优于大盘评级,目标价 150.00 人民币

SMIC: We rate SMIC Outperform with a PT of HKD 30.00 (H-share) / CNY 110.00 (A-share).
中芯国际:我们给予其港股(H 股)目标价 30.00 港元/A 股 110.00 元人民币的“跑赢大市”评级。

Hua Hong: We rate Hua Hong Outperform with a PT of HKD 30.00 (H-share) / CNY 55.00 (A-share).
华虹半导体:我们给予其港股(H 股)目标价 30.00 港元/A 股 55.00 元人民币的“跑赢大市”评级。

AMD (Market-Perform, $125): AI expectations remain high, portions of the core business remain weak, and shares remain somewhat expensive.
AMD(与大市同步,125 美元):市场对 AI 的预期仍居高不下,核心业务部分领域持续疲软,股价估值略显偏高。

ADI (Market-Perform, $220): Valuations have markedly expanded and the shares/earnings may need to grow into the multiple.
ADI(与大市同步,220 美元):估值显著扩张,股价/盈利需与倍数增长相匹配。

AVGO (Outperform, $250): AVGO’s core semi business has bottomed with a good 2025 set-up, bolstered by software, cash deployment, superb margins & FCF, and a supportive AI story.
AVGO(优于大盘,目标价 250 美元):AVGO 的核心半导体业务已触底,2025 年布局良好,得益于软件业务、现金配置、卓越的利润率与自由现金流,以及人工智能领域的利好支撑。

INTC (Market-Perform, $25): Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront.
INTC(与大市持平,目标价 25 美元):英特尔的问题已全面暴露。

NVDA (Outperform, $185): The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible.
NVDA(优于大盘,目标价 185 美元):数据中心市场潜力巨大且仍处早期阶段,仍有显著上行空间。

NXPI (Market-Perform, $225): The cyclical bottom may be pushing out, and the pace of recovery remains open for debate.
NXPI(与大市持平,目标价 225 美元):周期底部可能延后,复苏步伐仍存争议。

QCOM (Outperform, $215): AAPL headwinds likely approaching but are known, but the product portfolio is stronger than ever, option value exists, and the shares remain inexpensive.
高通(优于大盘,目标价 215 美元):尽管苹果带来的逆风可能临近且已被市场认知,但其产品组合实力达到历史最佳,期权价值显现,股价仍具吸引力。

TXN (Underperform, $140): TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment amid cyclical uncertainty and accelerating investments.
德州仪器(逊于大盘,目标价 140 美元):在当前周期不确定性加剧及投资加速的背景下,德州仪器股价已充分反映其估值。

AMAT (Outperform, $210): We maintain a positive view on secular WFE growth and see a number of drivers for AMAT including SAM growth, an increasing services narrative, and capital return.
应用材料(优于大盘,目标价 210 美元):我们持续看好半导体设备支出的长期增长趋势,认为应用材料将受益于服务可及市场扩张、服务业务叙事强化及资本回报等多重驱动因素。

LRCX (Outperform, $105): The company has come off the trough, CY25 commentary (along with valuation) is growing more supportive, and a NAND upgrade cycle may be starting.
拉姆研究(优于大盘,目标价 105 美元):公司已走出低谷,2025 财年业绩指引(结合估值)支撑力度增强,NAND 闪存升级周期可能即将启动。

TSMC (OP, PT NT$1,430): We rate TSMC Outperform with a NT$1,430 target price.
台积电(优于大盘,目标价 1,430 新台币):我们给予台积电“优于大盘”评级,目标价 1,430 新台币。

MediaTek (OP, PT NT$1,820): We rate MediaTek Outperform with a NT$1,820 target price.
联发科(优于大盘,目标价 1,820 新台币):我们给予联发科“优于大盘”评级,目标价 1,820 新台币。

Novatek (MP, PT NT$500): We rate Novatek Market-Perform with a NT$500 target price.
联咏科技(与大盘持平,目标价 500 新台币):我们给予联咏科技“与大盘持平”评级,目标价 500 新台币。

Vanguard (MP, PT NT$100): We rate Vanguard Market-Perform with a NT$100 target price.
世界先进(与大盘持平,目标价 100 新台币):我们给予世界先进“与大盘持平”评级,目标价 100 新台币。

UMC (UP, PT US$4.8): We rate UMC Underperform with a US$4.8 target price.
联电(评级上调,目标价 4.8 美元):我们给予联电"逊于大盘"评级,目标价定为 4.8 美元。

DETAILS  详情

Methodology to estimate the fab capacity exposure for US IDM/Fablites:
评估美国 IDM/轻晶圆厂企业产能敞口的方法论:

  • We use SEMI data to collect these IDMs/Fablites own capacity (1Q25 version), and use company disclosure to extrapolate their outsourced capacity (% as estimation).
    我们采用 SEMI 数据收集这些 IDM/轻晶圆厂企业的自有产能(基于 2025 年一季度版本),并利用公司披露信息推算出其外包产能比例(作为估算依据)。
  • For TXN, given they mentioned they have ~90% of internal wafers on
    对于 TXN(德州仪器),鉴于其提到内部晶圆产能约 90%位于美国境内
    Capital Management Day 2025
    2025 年资本管理日
    , we assume another 10% capacity allocation outside U.S.
    ,我们假设另有 10%的产能分配在美国境外
  • For INTC, given Michelle Johnston Holthaus mentioned in the 4Q24 earnings call that “If you look at Intel as overall today, we do about 30% of our manufacturing externally across a variety of partners”, we hereby assume Intel has 30% of total capacity (addition to its 800 kwpm 8’’ equiv) outsourced to other foundries.
    对于 INTC(英特尔),根据 Michelle Johnston Holthaus 在 2024 年第四季度财报电话会议中所述:“纵观英特尔当前整体情况,我们约 30%的制造业务外包给多家合作伙伴”,我们据此假设英特尔总产能(在其 80 万片/月 8 英寸等效产能基础上)中有 30%外包给其他代工厂。
  • For NXPI, they have stated in
    对于 NXPI,他们在
    Investor Day 2024  2024 年投资者日, they have 60% external front end capacity.
    上表示,其拥有 60%的外部前端产能。
  • For ADI, they disclosed in
    至于 ADI,他们在
    FY2024 presentation  2024 财年演示文稿 that they have ~50% front end internal mix.
    他们前端内部混合比例约为 50%。
  • For MCHP (not covered), they said “During fiscal 2024, approximately 64% of our net sales came from products that were produced at outside wafer foundries, compared to approximately 63% during fiscal 2023” during
    对于 MCHP(未覆盖部分),他们表示“在 2024 财年,约 64%的净销售额来自外部晶圆代工厂生产的产品,而 2023 财年这一比例约为 63%”
    FY2024 Annual report  2024 财年年度报告.
  • For ON (not covered), as described in
    对于 ON(未覆盖),如
    2024 annual report  2024 年度报告, “We use third-party contractors for some of our manufacturing activities, primarily for wafer fabrication and the assembly and testing of finished goods. Our agreements with these contract manufacturers typically require us to forecast product needs and commit to purchase services consistent with these forecasts. In some cases, longer-term commitments are required in the early stages of the relationship. These manufacturers collectively accounted for approximately 33% of our total manufacturing input costs in 2024, 36% in 2023 and 43% in 2022”.
    所述,“我们部分制造活动依赖第三方承包商,主要集中在晶圆制造以及成品的封装与测试环节。与这些代工厂的协议通常要求我们预测产品需求并据此承诺采购相应服务。某些合作初期还需签订长期承诺协议。2024 年这些代工厂占我们总制造成本约 33%,2023 年和 2022 年分别为 36%和 43%。”
Exhibit 1 - Within major IDMs & Fablites in U.S., TI & Intel have the highest fab capacity exposure in U.S., accounting for 70% & 44%, respectively
图表 1 - 美国主要 IDM 及 Fablite 企业中,德州仪器(TI)和英特尔(Intel)的美国本土晶圆厂产能占比最高,分别达 70%和 44%
Source: SEMI, Company reports, Bernstein analysis and estimates
来源:SEMI、公司报告、伯恩斯坦分析与预测
Exhibit 2 - All of these U.S. IDMs & fablites have relatively high China exposure
图表 2 - 所有这些美国 IDM 及轻晶圆厂企业对中国市场的依赖度相对较高
For TI, back in 2023 when it still disclosed it's revenue by region (rather than end customers' locations), it's shipment to China was about 40% of total revenue. We use 40% as a proxy as it is directly related to tariff impact. For other names, we just use their China revenue share in the annual reports.
对于德州仪器(TI),回溯至 2023 年其仍按地区(而非终端客户所在地)披露收入时,其对华出货量约占总营收的 40%。我们采用 40%作为替代指标,因其与关税影响直接相关。其他公司则直接采用其年报中披露的中国收入占比。
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
来源:公司报告、伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 3 - TXN wafers internal
图表 3 - TXN 晶圆内部生产情况
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
来源:公司报告,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 4 - ADI’s front-end mix.
图表 4 - ADI 前端生产比例
Source: Company reports, Bernsten analysis
来源:公司报告,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 5 - NXP’s manufacturing footprint.
图表 5 - 恩智浦的制造基地分布。
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
来源:公司报告,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 6 - If we look at P/E on 2025E EPS, Silergy is relative expsensive, but compared to SG Micro, Silergy is way much cheaper.
图表 6 - 若以 2025 年预期每股收益的市盈率来看,矽力杰相对较贵,但相较于圣邦微,矽力杰则显得便宜许多。
TI, ADI and NXP are covered by Stacy Rasgon. Renesas is covered by David Dai. Others are not covered.
德州仪器、亚德诺和恩智浦由 Stacy Rasgon 负责覆盖。瑞萨电子由 David Dai 负责覆盖。其他公司未被覆盖。
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
来源:彭博社,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 7 - But if we look at 2026E EPS, Silergy is still relatively cheap, even compared with TI & ADI.
图表 7 - 但若观察 2026 年预期每股收益,矽力杰相比德州仪器(TI)和亚德诺(ADI)仍显估值低廉。
TI, ADI and NXP are covered by Stacy Rasgon. Renesas is covered by David Dai. Others are not covered. Silergy's P/E is based on our 2026 EPS estimates at TWD 20.05, while consensus P/E on 2026 EPS is 20x.
德州仪器(TI)、亚德诺(ADI)和恩智浦(NXP)由 Stacy Rasgon 覆盖。瑞萨电子由 David Dai 覆盖。其余公司未覆盖。矽力杰市盈率基于我们 2026 年每股收益预测值 20.05 新台币计算,而市场共识对 2026 年预期每股收益的市盈率为 20 倍。
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
来源:彭博社,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 8 - There's divergence between SG Micro's & Silergy's stock performance since tariffs games last week, but today after the definition of "origins" confirmed by CSIA, but SG Micro & Silergy limited up.
图表 8 - 自上周关税博弈以来,圣邦微与矽力杰的股价表现出现分化,但今日在中国半导体行业协会确认"原产地"定义后,圣邦微与矽力杰双双涨停。
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
来源:彭博社,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 9 - TXN stopped the disclosure of shipment to China since 3Q23
图表 9 - 德州仪器自 2023 年第三季度起停止披露对华出货数据
Note this dataset is as reported which means it includes analog, embedded and other business.
注意该数据集为报告值,包含模拟、嵌入式及其他业务。
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
来源:公司报告,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 10 - TXN started to disclose end customer by region from 1Q22 onwards
图表 10 - 德州仪器(TXN)自 2022 年第一季度起开始按地区披露终端客户数据
Note this dataset is as reported which means it includes analog, embedded and other business.
注意该数据集为报告原始数据,包含模拟、嵌入式及其他业务。
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
来源:公司报告,伯恩斯坦分析
Exhibit 11 - ADI only discloses its shipment by region on a yearly basis, with Fiscal Year starting in November
图表 11 - ADI 仅按年度披露其分地区出货量,财年始于 11 月
Note ADI’s FY24 started from Novomber 23.
注:ADI 的 2024 财年自 2023 年 11 月起算
Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis
资料来源:公司财报,伯恩斯坦分析

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX  披露附录

REQUIRED DISCLOSURES  必须披露事项

I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES  一、必须披露事项

References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).
本披露中提及的"Bernstein"或"本公司"指以下实体:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(2024 年 4 月 1 日起)、Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC(2024 年 4 月 1 日前)、Bernstein Autonomous LLP、BSG France S.A.(2024 年 4 月 1 日起)、Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司、Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited、Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited(印度证券交易委员会注册号 INH000006378)、Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited 及 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)。

On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venture in which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respective ownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production and publication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.
2024 年 4 月 1 日,法国兴业银行(SG)与联博有限合伙公司(AB)完成交易,组建了一家新合资企业,整合双方现金股票与研究业务。尽管双方在合资企业中的持股比例在北美与其他地区存在差异,但研究报告的创作、制作与发布均通过"Bernstein"和"Autonomous"两大研究品牌在全球范围内协作完成。


Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective affiliates.
除非特别说明,在本披露文件中提及的伯恩斯坦“关联公司”均指 SG 和 AB 及其各自的关联公司。

VALUATION METHODOLOGY  估值方法论

This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:
本研究报告涵盖六家或以上公司。关于估值方法论及其他公司披露信息:

Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
请访问:https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action。

Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.
或者,您也可以写信给合规总监,地址:伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司,纽约州纽约市公园大道 245 号,邮编 10167。

RISKS  风险提示

This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:
本研究报告涵盖六家或更多公司。有关风险及其他公司披露信息:

Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
请访问:https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action。

Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.
或者,您也可以写信给合规总监,地址:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 纽约州纽约市公园大道 245 号,邮编 10167。

RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION
评级定义、基准与分布

Bernstein brand  Bernstein 品牌

The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 for stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified.
Bernstein 品牌对股票的评级基于对未来 12 个月内相对表现的预测:对于在美国和加拿大交易所上市的股票,其比较基准为标普 500 指数;对于在欧洲交易所及亚太地区以外新兴市场交易所上市的股票,比较基准为彭博欧洲发达市场大中型股价格回报指数(EDM);对于在日本交易所上市的股票,比较基准为彭博日本大中型股美元计价价格回报指数(JP);对于在亚洲(除日本外)交易所上市的股票,比较基准为彭博亚洲(除日本外)大中型股价格回报指数(ASIAX)——除非另有说明。
The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:
伯恩斯坦品牌评级分为三大类:
  • Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp
    跑赢大盘:股票表现将超越市场指数 15 个百分点以上
  • Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp
    与大盘持平:股票表现与市场指数相差不超过正负 15 个百分点
  • Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp
    跑输大盘:股票表现将落后市场指数 15 个百分点以上
Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targets are suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.
覆盖暂停:伯恩斯坦研究品牌对某家公司的覆盖已暂停。评级和目标股价暂时中止,不再具有时效性,因此不应作为参考依据。
Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately predicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investors on events and developments.
未评级:当股票当前无法准确估值,或公司表现难以预测时赋予的评级。覆盖分析师可能继续发布关于该公司的研究报告,向投资者更新事件与进展。
Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.
未覆盖(NC)表示不在研究覆盖范围内的公司。

Autonomous brand  自主品牌

The Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks And Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI) index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for European insurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P Insurance Select Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid and Small Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to the sector (not the market).
Autonomous 品牌对股票的评级如下所示。我们采用以下基准:对于欧洲发达市场的银行及支付领域,使用彭博欧洲 500 银行与金融服务指数(BEBANKS)和彭博欧洲发达市场金融大型及中型股价格回报指数(EDMFI);对于欧洲保险公司,采用彭博欧洲 500 保险指数(BEINSUR);针对美国银行及支付领域覆盖,参考标普 500 和标普金融指数;美国保险领域则使用 S5LIFE 指数;美国非寿险公司覆盖采用标普保险精选行业指数(SPSIINS);而新兴市场的银行、保险公司及支付领域则依据彭博新兴市场金融大型、中型及小型股价格回报指数(EMLSF)。所有评级均相对于行业(而非整体市场)给出。

The Autonomous brand has three categories of ratings:
Autonomous 品牌的评级分为三类:

  • Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp
    跑赢大盘(OP):股票表现将超越相关指数超过 10 个百分点
  • Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp
    中性(N):股票表现将与市场指数持平,波动范围在+/-10 个百分点以内
  • Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 pp
    表现不佳(UP):该股票表现将落后相关指数超过 10 个百分点

Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targets are suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.
覆盖暂停:伯恩斯坦研究品牌下对某公司的覆盖已暂停。评级和目标价暂时中止,不再具有时效性,因此不应作为参考依据。

Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accurately predicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investors on events and developments.
未评级:当目前无法准确评估股票价值或预测公司业绩时赋予的评级。覆盖分析师可能继续发布关于该公司的研究报告,向投资者更新事件和进展。

Those denoted as ‘Feature’ (e.g., Feature Outperform FOP, Feature Under Outperform FUP) are our core ideas. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.
标注为‘特色’的(如特色跑赢大盘 FOP、特色表现不佳 FUP)是我们的核心观点。未覆盖(NC)表示不在研究覆盖范围内的公司。

Horizon and classification
视野与分类

For both brands, recommendations are based on a 12-month time horizon.
对于两个品牌,建议均基于 12 个月的时间范围。

DISTRIBUTION OF RATINGS/INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES
评级/投资银行服务分布

Rating  评级 Market Abuse Regulation(MAR) and FINRA Rule 2241 classification
市场滥用监管条例(MAR)与 FINRA 规则 2241 分类
Count  计数 Percent  百分比 Count*  计数* Percent*  百分比*
Outperform  表现优于大盘 BUY  买入 573 51.76% 109 19.02%
Market-Perform (Bernstein Brand)
与大市同步(伯恩斯坦品牌)

Neutral (Autonomous Brand)
中性(自主品牌)
HOLD  持有 387 34.96% 67 17.31%
Underperform  表现不佳 SELL  卖出 147 13.28% 19 12.93%

* These figures represent the number and percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein and Autonomous provided investment banking services.
* 这些数字代表伯恩斯坦和 Autonomous 为每类公司提供投资银行服务的公司数量及占比。

As of Apr 11 2025. All figures are updated quarterly and represent the cumulative ratings over the previous 12 months.
截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日。所有数据均按季度更新,反映过去 12 个月的累计评级情况。

Prior to April 1, 2024, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC. issued the ratings and price target information in the graph(s) below for the following companies: Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Analog Devices Inc, Broadcom Inc, Intel Corp, NVIDIA Corp, NXP Semiconductors NV, Qualcomm Inc, Texas Instruments Inc, Applied Materials Inc and Lam Research Corp.
2024 年 4 月 1 日前,Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC. 为以下公司发布了图表中的评级及目标价信息:超威半导体公司、亚德诺半导体技术有限公司、博通公司、英特尔公司、英伟达公司、恩智浦半导体公司、高通公司、德州仪器公司、应用材料公司和泛林集团公司。

PRICE CHARTS/ RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY
价格走势图/评级与目标价历史记录

This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart and other company disclosures, please visit https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or you can write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167.
本研究报告涵盖六家或以上公司。如需查看价格图表及其他公司披露信息,请访问 https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action,或致函合规总监,地址:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167。

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST  利益冲突

All statements in this report attributable to Gartner represent Bernstein's interpretation of data, research opinion or viewpoints published as part of a syndicated subscription service by Gartner, Inc., and have not been reviewed by Gartner. Each Gartner publication speaks as of its original publication date (and not as of the date of this report). The opinions expressed in Gartner publications are not representations of fact, and are subject to change without notice.
本报告中所有引用 Gartner 的陈述均代表 Bernstein 对 Gartner 公司作为联合订阅服务发布的数据、研究观点或立场的解读,未经 Gartner 审核。每份 Gartner 出版物的观点均以其原始发布日期为准(而非本报告日期)。Gartner 出版物所表达的观点不构成事实陈述,且可能随时变更,恕不另行通知。

Stacy A. Rasgon maintains long positions in various crypto currencies.
斯泰西·A·拉斯贡持有多种加密货币的多头头寸。

Bernstein Autonomous LLP or BSG France SA, beneficially, has either a net long or short position of 0.5% or more of the total issued share capital of a class of common equity securities of the following MiFID eligible securities: Broadcom Inc, NXP Semiconductors NV, Qualcomm Inc, Texas Instruments Inc and Applied Materials Inc.
Bernstein Autonomous LLP 或 BSG France SA,在受益所有权上,对以下 MiFID 合格证券中的某一类普通股持有净多头或空头头寸,且占该类别已发行总股本的 0.5%或以上:博通公司、恩智浦半导体公司、高通公司、德州仪器公司及应用材料公司。


AB and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies: NXP Semiconductors NV, Texas Instruments Inc and Applied Materials Inc.
AB 及/或其附属机构对以下公司的某一类普通股持有 1%或以上的受益所有权:恩智浦半导体公司、德州仪器公司及应用材料公司。


Bernstein and/or affiliates have received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: Intel Corp.
Bernstein 及/或其附属机构在过去十二个月内从以下客户处获得了与非投行证券相关产品或服务的报酬:英特尔公司。

Bernstein has received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: NXP Semiconductors NV.
Bernstein 在过去十二个月内从以下客户处获得了与非投行证券相关产品或服务的报酬:恩智浦半导体公司。


Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities of: Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Analog Devices Inc, Broadcom Inc, Intel Corp, NVIDIA Corp, NXP Semiconductors NV, Qualcomm Inc, Texas Instruments Inc, Applied Materials Inc and Lam Research Corp.
伯恩斯坦的某些关联公司在以下公司的股票证券中担任做市商或流动性提供者:超威半导体公司(Advanced Micro Devices Inc)、亚德诺半导体技术有限公司(Analog Devices Inc)、博通公司(Broadcom Inc)、英特尔公司(Intel Corp)、英伟达公司(NVIDIA Corp)、恩智浦半导体公司(NXP Semiconductors NV)、高通公司(Qualcomm Inc)、德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments Inc)、应用材料公司(Applied Materials Inc)以及泛林集团(Lam Research Corp)。

Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market maker or liquidity provider in the debt securities of: Broadcom Inc, Intel Corp and Texas Instruments Inc.
伯恩斯坦的某些关联公司在以下公司的债务证券中担任做市商或流动性提供者:博通公司(Broadcom Inc)、英特尔公司(Intel Corp)以及德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments Inc)。

Xuan Ji has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (2330.TT and TSM).
宣吉持有台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司(台积电,股票代码:2330.TT 及 TSM)的债务或股权证券中的财务权益。


OTHER MATTERS  其他事项
The legal entity(ies) employing the analyst(s) listed in this report, and their location, can be determined by the country code of their phone number, as follows:
本报告所列分析师所属法律实体及其所在地可通过其电话号码的国家代码确定,具体如下:

+1 Bernstein Institutional Services LLC; New York, New York, USA
+1 伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司;美国纽约州纽约市

+44 Bernstein Autonomous LLP; London UK
+44 伯恩斯坦自主有限责任合伙;英国伦敦

+33 BSG France S.A.; Paris, France
+33 BSG 法国股份有限公司;法国巴黎

+41 Bernstein Autonomous LLP; Geneva, Switzerland
+41 伯恩斯坦自主有限责任公司;瑞士日内瓦

+49 BSG France S.A.; Frankfurt, Germany
+49 BSG 法国公司;德国法兰克福

+91 Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited; Mumbai, India
+91 桑福德·伯恩斯坦(印度)私营有限公司;印度孟买

+852 Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司; Hong Kong, China
+852 桑福德·伯恩斯坦(香港)有限公司 盛博香港有限公司;中国香港

+65 Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited; Singapore
+65 新加坡桑福德·伯恩斯坦私人有限公司;新加坡

+81 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK; Tokyo, Japan
+81 日本桑福德·伯恩斯坦株式会社;日本东京

Where this report has been prepared by research analyst(s) employed by a non-US affiliate, such analyst(s), is/are (unless otherwise expressly noted below) not registered as associated persons of Bernstein Institutional Services LLC or any other SEC-registered broker-dealer and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Accordingly, such analyst(s) may not be subject to FINRA’s restrictions regarding (among other things) communications by research analysts with a subject company, interactions between research analysts and investment banking personnel, participation by research analysts in solicitation and marketing activities relating to investment banking transactions, public appearances by research analysts, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
若本报告由非美国关联机构的研究分析师编制,除非下文另有明确说明,该分析师未注册为伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司或其他美国证券交易委员会注册经纪交易商的关联人士,亦未取得金融业监管局(FINRA)研究分析师资格。因此,该分析师可能不受 FINRA 关于(包括但不限于)研究分析师与标的公司沟通、研究分析师与投资银行人员互动、研究分析师参与投资银行交易招揽及营销活动、研究分析师公开露面以及研究分析师账户持有证券交易等限制规定的约束。

CERTIFICATION  认证声明

Each research analyst listed in this report, who is primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this report, certifies that all of the views expressed in this publication accurately reflect that analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of that analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views in this publication.
本报告中列出的每位主要负责本报告内容编写的研究分析师均声明,本出版物中表达的所有观点准确反映了该分析师对任何及所有标的证券或发行人的个人观点,且该分析师薪酬的任何部分均未曾、不会、亦不会直接或间接与本出版物中的具体建议或观点相关联。

II. ADDITIONAL GLOBAL CONFLICT DISCLOSURES
二、其他全球冲突披露事项

It is at the sole discretion of the Firm as to when to initiate, update and cease research coverage. The Firm has established, maintains and relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas (i.e., the private side) within the Firm, and into other areas, units, groups or affiliates (i.e., public side) of the Firm.
公司拥有全权决定何时启动、更新及终止研究覆盖。公司已建立、维护并依赖信息隔离墙制度,以控制公司内部一个或多个区域(即非公开侧)所含信息流向公司其他区域、部门、集团或关联方(即公开侧)。

III. OTHER IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES
三、其他重要信息及披露事项

Separate branding is maintained for “Bernstein” and “Autonomous” research products.
"Bernstein"与"Autonomous"研究产品保持独立品牌运营。
  • Bernstein produces a number of different types of research products including, among others, fundamental analysis and quantitative analysis under both the “Autonomous” and “Bernstein” brands. Recommendations contained within one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained within other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. Furthermore, views or recommendations within a research product issued under one brand may differ from views or recommendations under the same type of research product issued under the other brand. The Research Ratings System for the two brands and other information related to those Rating Systems are included in the previous section.
    Bernstein 提供多种类型的研究产品,包括但不限于基本面分析和量化分析,这些产品分别归属于"Autonomous"和"Bernstein"两大品牌。不同研究产品中的建议可能因时间框架、方法论或其他因素而存在差异。此外,同一类型研究产品在不同品牌下发布时,其观点或建议也可能有所不同。两大品牌的研究评级体系及相关信息详见前一章节说明。
  • Autonomous operates as a separate business unit within the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Bernstein Autonomous LLP, Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 and Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited. For information relating to “Autonomous” branded products (including certain Sales materials) please visit: www.autonomous.com. For information relating to Bernstein branded products please visit: www.bernsteinresearch.com.
    自主业务作为独立业务部门运营于以下实体中:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC、Bernstein Autonomous LLP、盛博香港有限公司以及 Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited。有关“Autonomous”品牌产品(包括部分销售材料)的信息,请访问:www.autonomous.com。有关 Bernstein 品牌产品的信息,请访问:www.bernsteinresearch.com。
Analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration, productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to, generating investment banking revenues.
分析师的薪酬基于其对研究业务的整体贡献,衡量标准包括客户渗透率、生产力及投资建议的主动性。没有任何分析师的薪酬与投行业务收入的表现或贡献挂钩。

This report has been produced by an independent analyst as defined in Article 3 (1)(34)(i) of EU 596/2014 Market Abuse Regulation (“MAR”) and the same article of MAR as it forms part of United Kingdom domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.
本报告由符合欧盟《市场滥用条例》(MAR)第 3(1)(34)(i)条定义的独立分析师编制,该条款亦通过《欧盟(退出)法案》2018 年成为英国国内法的一部分。

To our readers in the United States: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a member of the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) is distributing this publication in the United States and accepts responsibility for its contents. Where this material contains an analysis of debt product(s), such material is intended only for institutional investors and is not subject to the US independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research prepared for retail investors.
致我们在美国的读者:伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司(Bernstein Institutional Services LLC)是一家在美国证券交易委员会(“SEC”)注册的经纪自营商,同时也是美国金融业监管局(“FINRA”)的成员。该公司负责在美国分发本出版物,并对其内容承担责任。若本材料包含对债务产品的分析,则该等材料仅供机构投资者使用,且不受适用于为零售投资者准备的债务研究的美国独立性和披露标准的约束。

Bernstein Institutional Services LLC may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person (including an affiliate) in sales or purchases of any security which is a subject of this report. This report does not purport to meet the objectives or needs of any specific individuals, entities or accounts.
伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司可能以自有账户作为委托人或作为他人(包括关联方)的代理人在本报告所涉任何证券的买卖中行事。本报告并不声称满足任何特定个人、实体或账户的目标或需求。

To our readers in Canada: If this publication pertains to a Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed in Canada by Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. If the publication pertains to a non-Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, which is licensed and regulated by both the SEC and FINRA, into Canada under the International Dealers Exemption.
致加拿大读者:若本出版物涉及加拿大注册公司,则由受加拿大投资业监管组织(CIRO)许可和监管的 Sanford C. Bernstein(加拿大)有限公司在加拿大境内分发。若涉及非加拿大注册公司,则由受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)和金融业监管局(FINRA)双重监管的 Bernstein Institutional Services LLC 根据国际交易商豁免条款在加拿大境内分发。

This document may not be passed onto any person in Canada unless that person qualifies as "permitted client" as defined in Section 1.1 of NI 31-103.
本文件不得传递给加拿大境内的任何人士,除非该人士符合《国家仪器 31-103》第 1.1 节所定义的"许可客户"资格。

To our readers in Brazil: This report has been prepared by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, and Banco BTG Pactual S.A. ("BTG") is responsible for the distribution of this report in Brazil.
致巴西读者:本报告由 Bernstein Institutional Services LLC 编制,巴西境内报告分发责任方为 Banco BTG Pactual S.A.(简称"BTG")。

To readers in the United Kingdom: This publication has been issued or approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Bernstein Autonomous LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and located at 60 London Wall, London EC2M 5SH, +44 (0)20-7170-5000. Registered in England & Wales No OC343985.
致英国读者:本出版物由英国金融行为监管局授权监管的 Bernstein Autonomous LLP 在英国发行或批准发行,公司地址:60 London Wall, London EC2M 5SH,电话:+44 (0)20-7170-5000。英格兰及威尔士注册号 OC343985。
This document is for distribution only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Financial Promotion Order”), (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the Financial Promotion Order, (iii) are outside the United Kingdom, or (iv) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the FSMA) in connection with the issue or sale of any securities may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
本文件仅分发给符合以下条件的人士:(i) 具有《2000 年金融服务与市场法》(经修订的《金融促销令》)第 19(5)条所述投资相关专业经验的人士,(ii) 属于《金融促销令》第 49(2)(a)至(d)条所述(高净值公司、非法人团体等)的人士,(iii) 位于英国境外的人士,或(iv) 其他可合法接收或促使接收与证券发行或销售相关的投资活动邀请或诱导(根据《FSMA》第 21 条定义)的人士(以上所有人士统称为“相关人士”)。本文件仅针对相关人士,非相关人士不得据此行事或依赖其内容。本文件所述任何投资或投资活动仅适用于相关人士,且仅与相关人士进行。

To our readers in Ireland and the member states of the EEA: This publication is being distributed by BSG France SA, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and Autorité des marchés financiers.
致我们在爱尔兰及欧洲经济区成员国的读者:本出版物由 BSG 法国公司分发,该公司受法国审慎监管与处置局及金融市场监管局授权并监管。

To our readers in Hong Kong: This publication is being distributed in Hong Kong by Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (Central Entity No. AXC846) to carry out Type 4 (Advising on Securities) regulated activities and subject to the licensing conditions mentioned in the SFC Public Register (https://www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC846/details)). This publication is solely for professional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571).
致我们在香港的读者:本出版物由盛博香港有限公司(Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited)在香港分发,该公司持有香港证券及期货事务监察委员会(中央编号 AXC846)颁发的牌照并受其监管,可从事第 4 类(就证券提供意见)受规管活动,且须遵守证监会公众登记册(https://www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC846/details)所载的牌照条件。本出版物仅供《证券及期货条例》(第 571 章)所定义的专业投资者参阅。

To our readers in Singapore: This publication is being distributed in Singapore by Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited, only to accredited investors or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore ("SFA"). Recipients in Singapore should contact Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited in respect of matters arising from, or in connection with, this publication. Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and licensed under the SFA as a capital markets services licence holder for dealing in capital markets products that are securities and collective investment schemes and an exempt financial adviser for advising on, issuing and promulgating analyses and reports on securities. Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited is registered in Singapore with Company Registration No. 20213710W and located at One Raffles Quay, #27-11 South Tower, Singapore 048583, +65-6230-4612.
致新加坡读者:本出版物由 Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited 在新加坡境内分发,仅面向《2001 年新加坡证券与期货法》(简称"SFA")定义的合格投资者或机构投资者。新加坡境内的收件人如因本出版物产生任何事宜,请联系 Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited。该公司受新加坡金融管理局监管,持有 SFA 颁发的资本市场服务牌照,可从事证券及集合投资计划类资本市场产品交易,并作为豁免财务顾问提供证券分析报告发布服务。Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited 在新加坡注册(公司编号 20213710W),地址:新加坡 048583 莱佛士码头一号南塔 27 层 11 室,电话:+65-6230-4612。

To our readers in the People’s Republic of China: The securities referred to in this document are not being offered or sold and may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in the People's Republic of China (for such purposes, not including the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions or Taiwan, the “PRC”) in contravention of any applicable laws of the PRC.
致中华人民共和国读者:本文件所述证券不会且不得在中华人民共和国(就此而言,不包括香港及澳门特别行政区或台湾,“中国”)直接或间接发售或销售,亦不得违反中国任何适用法律进行发售或销售。

This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in the PRC to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in the PRC.
本文件不构成在中国境内向任何被禁止进行此类要约或招揽的人士提出证券出售要约或购买要约招揽。

We do not represent that this document may be lawfully distributed, or that any securities may be lawfully offered, in compliance with any applicable registration or other requirements in the PRC, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder, or assume any responsibility for facilitating any such distribution or offering. In particular, no action has been taken by us which would permit a public offering of any securities or distribution of this document in the PRC. Accordingly, the securities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this document or any other document. Neither this document nor any advertisement or other offering material may be distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations.
我们并不声明本文件可合法分发,或任何证券可合法发售,以符合中华人民共和国(以下简称“中国”)任何适用的注册或其他要求,或依据其中可获得的豁免,亦不承担促成任何此类分发或发售的责任。特别是,我们未采取任何行动以使任何证券的公开发售或本文件的分发在中国获得许可。因此,证券不会通过本文件或任何其他文件在中国境内发售或销售。除非在符合任何适用法律法规的情况下,本文件或任何广告或其他发售材料均不得在中国分发或发布。

To our readers in Japan: This publication is being distributed in Japan by Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社), which is registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (registration number: The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3387) and regulated by the Financial Services Agency. It is also a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association. This publication is solely for qualified institutional investors in Japan only, as defined in Article 2, paragraph (3), items (i) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.
致我们在日本的读者:本出版物由 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)在日本分发,该公司在日本关东地方财务局注册为金融工具业务运营商(注册号:关东地方财务局长(金商)第 3387 号),并受金融厅监管。同时,该公司也是日本投资顾问协会的会员。本出版物仅适用于《金融商品交易法》第 2 条第 3 项第(i)款所定义的日本合格机构投资者。

For the institutional client readers in Japan who have been granted access to the Bernstein website by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (“Daiwa”), your access to this document should not be construed as meaning that Bernstein is providing you with investment advice for any purposes. Whilst Bernstein has prepared this document, your relationship is, and will remain with, Daiwa, and Bernstein has neither any contractual relationship with you nor any obligations towards you.
对于已获大和证券集团(“大和”)授权访问伯恩斯坦网站的日本机构客户读者,您访问本文件不应被解释为伯恩斯坦出于任何目的向您提供投资建议。尽管伯恩斯坦准备了本文件,但您的关系是并将继续与大和保持,伯恩斯坦与您既无任何合同关系,也无任何对您的义务。

To our readers in Australia: Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 is responsible for distributing research in Australia. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission under U.S. laws, by the Financial Conduct Authority under U.K. laws, which differs from Australian laws. Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the provision of the following financial services to wholesale clients:
致我们在澳大利亚的读者:Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司负责在澳大利亚分发研究报告。该公司受美国法律下证券交易委员会及英国法律下金融行为监管局的监管,这与澳大利亚法律有所不同。根据《2001 年公司法》,盛博香港有限公司在向批发客户提供以下金融服务时,可豁免持有澳大利亚金融服务牌照:

  • providing financial product advice;
    提供金融产品建议;
  • dealing in a financial product;
    进行金融产品交易;
  • making a market for a financial product; and
    为金融产品做市;以及
  • providing a custodial or depository service.
    提供托管或存管服务。
To our readers in India: This publication is being distributed in India by Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SCB India) which is licensed and regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") as a research analyst entity under the SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014, having registration no. INH000006378 and as a stock broker having registration no. INZ000213537. SCB India is currently engaged in the business of providing research and stock broking services. Please refer to www.bernsteinresearch.in for more information.
致印度读者:本出版物由 Sanford C. Bernstein(印度)私营有限公司(SCB 印度)在印度分发,该公司根据印度证券交易委员会(SEBI)2014 年《研究分析师条例》注册为研究分析师实体,注册号为 INH000006378,并作为股票经纪商注册,注册号为 INZ000213537。SCB 印度目前从事提供研究和股票经纪服务。更多信息请参阅 www.bernsteinresearch.in。
  • SCB India is a Private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013, on April 12, 2017 bearing corporate identification number U65999MH2017FTC293762, and registered office at Level 3A, 4th Floor, First International Financial Centre, Plot Nos C-54 and C-55, G Block, Near CBI Office, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400098, Maharashtra, India (Phone No: +91-22-68421401).
    SCB 印度是一家根据 2013 年《公司法》于 2017 年 4 月 12 日成立的私营有限公司,公司识别号为 U65999MH2017FTC293762,注册办公室位于印度马哈拉施特拉邦孟买 400098,班德拉东区,Bandra Kurla Complex,G Block,C-54 和 C-55 地块,第一国际金融中心 4 楼 3A 层,靠近 CBI 办公室(电话:+91-22-68421401)。
  • For details of Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) of SCB India, kindly email scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com.
    有关 SCB 印度的关联公司(即附属/集团公司)详情,请发送邮件至 scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com。
  • SCB India does not have any disciplinary history as on the date of this report.
    截至本报告日期,SCB 印度公司无任何纪律处分记录。
  • Except as noted above, SCB India and/or its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies), the Research Analysts authoring this report, and their relatives
    除上述注明外,SCB 印度公司及其关联公司(即附属/集团公司)、撰写本报告的研究分析师及其亲属
    • do not have any financial interest in the subject company
      在标的公司中无任何财务权益
    • do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in securities of the subject company;
      不持有标的公司证券 1%或以上的实际/受益所有权;
    • is not engaged in any investment banking activities for Indian companies, as such;
      目前并未从事任何针对印度公司的投资银行业务;
    • have not managed or co-managed a public offering in the past twelve months for any Indian companies;
      过去十二个月内未为任何印度公司担任或联合担任公开发行的主承销商;
    • have not received any compensation for investment banking services or merchant banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months;
      过去 12 个月内未从标的公司获得投资银行服务或商人银行服务的报酬;
    • have not received compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
      过去十二个月内未从标的公司获得经纪服务报酬;
    • have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party related to the specific recommendations or views in this report; and
      未从标的公司或第三方获得与本报告具体建议或观点相关的任何补偿或其他利益;
    • do not currently, but may in the future, act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the companies covered in the report.
      目前未担任但未来可能担任本报告所涵盖公司金融工具的市场庄家。
    • do not have any conflict of interest in the subject company as of the date of this report.
      截至本报告发布之日,与标的公司不存在任何利益冲突。
  • Except as noted above, the subject company has not been a client of SCB India during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of this research report. Neither SCB India nor its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) have received compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.
    除上述情况外,标的公司在过去十二个月内并非渣打银行印度(SCB India)的客户。渣打银行印度及其关联公司(即附属公司/集团公司)在过去十二个月内未从标的公司获得除投资银行、商人银行或经纪服务以外的产品或服务报酬。
  • The principal research analyst(s) who prepared this report, members of the analysts' team, and members of their households are not an officer, director, employee or advisory board member of the companies covered in the report.
    本报告的主要研究分析师、分析师团队成员及其家庭成员均未担任报告所涵盖公司的官员、董事、雇员或顾问委员会成员。
  • Our Compliance officer / Grievance officer is Ms. Rupal Talati, who can be reached at +91-22-68421451, or
    我们的合规官/申诉专员是 Rupal Talati 女士,联系方式为+91-22-68421451,或
    scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com / Scbin-investorgrievance@bernsteinsg.com
  • The investor charter of SCB India is available on its website and may be accessed at
    渣打银行印度的投资者章程可在其官网上查阅,访问地址为
    Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (bernsteinresearch.in)
    桑福德·伯恩斯坦(印度)私人有限公司 (bernsteinresearch.in)
  • Disclaimer: Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM, is in no way a guarantee of performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
    免责声明:SEBI 授予的注册资格及 NISM 认证,绝不代表对中介机构业绩的保证,也不构成对投资者收益的任何承诺。证券市场投资存在市场风险,投资前请仔细阅读所有相关文件。

To our readers in Switzerland: This document is provided in Switzerland by or through Bernstein Autonomous LLP, and is provided only to qualified investors as defined in article 10 of the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act (“CISA”) and related provisions of the Collective Investment Scheme Ordinance and in strict compliance with applicable Swiss law and regulations. The products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all types of investors. This document is based on the Directives on the Independence of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) in January 2008.
致瑞士读者:本文件由 Bernstein Autonomous LLP 或其授权机构在瑞士境内提供,仅面向《瑞士集合投资计划法案》(CISA)第 10 条及《集合投资计划条例》相关条款定义的合格投资者,并严格遵守瑞士法律法规。本文件提及的产品可能不适用于所有投资者类型。本文件依据瑞士银行家协会(SBA)2008 年 1 月发布的《金融研究独立性指引》编制。

To our readers in the Middle East: Bernstein Autonomous LLP, DIFC branch has its principal office at Gate Village 06, DIFC, Dubai, UAE. Bernstein Autonomous LLP, DIFC branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) with the registration number F008549 and is provisioned for Arranging Deals in Investments and Advising on Financial Products. All communications and services are directed at Professional Clients and Market Counterparties only (as defined in the DFSA rulebook). Persons other than Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, such as Retail Clients, are not the intended recipients of our communications or services.
致中东地区的读者:Bernstein Autonomous LLP 迪拜国际金融中心(DIFC)分行的主要办公地点位于阿联酋迪拜 DIFC 的 Gate Village 06 号。该分行受迪拜金融服务管理局(DFSA)监管,注册号为 F008549,获准从事投资交易安排及金融产品咨询业务。所有通讯及服务仅面向专业客户与市场对手方(定义详见 DFSA 规则手册)。非专业客户或市场对手方(如零售客户)并非我们通讯或服务的预期接收对象。

LEGAL  法律声明

All research publications are disseminated to our clients through posting on the firm's password protected websites, bernsteinresearch.com and autonomous.com. Certain, but not all, research publications are also made available to clients through third-party vendors or redistributed to clients through alternate electronic means as a convenience.
所有研究报告均通过公司加密网站 bernsteinresearch.com 和 autonomous.com 向客户发布。部分(非全部)研究报告亦通过第三方供应商提供给客户,或作为便利措施通过其他电子方式重新分发给客户。

This publication has been published and distributed in accordance with the Firm's policy for management of conflicts of interest in investment research, a copy of which is available from Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Director of Compliance, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. Additional disclosures and information regarding Bernstein's business are available on our website www.bernsteinresearch.com.
本出版物已根据公司关于投资研究利益冲突管理的政策发布和分发,该政策的副本可从纽约州纽约市公园大道 245 号伯恩斯坦机构服务有限责任公司合规总监处获取,邮编 10167。有关伯恩斯坦业务的更多披露和信息,请访问我们的网站 www.bernsteinresearch.com。

The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors where that permission profile is not consistent with the licenses held by the entities noted herein. This document is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject any of the entities referenced herein or any of their subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This publication is based upon public sources we believe to be reliable, but no representation is made by us that the publication is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in the opinions herein. This publication was prepared and issued by entity referred to herein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professional clients. This publication is not an offer to buy or sell any security, and it does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable for you. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light of their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as a result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance.
本文所述证券可能并非在所有司法管辖区或针对某些类别的投资者均具备销售资格,前提是该许可范围与本文所述实体所持牌照不符。本文件仅在法律允许的范围内进行分发。本出版物不针对也不意图分发给任何公民、居民或位于任何地区、州、国家或其他司法管辖区的个人或实体,若在该等司法管辖区进行分发、发布、提供或使用将违反法律或法规,或使本文提及的任何实体及其子公司或关联公司受到该司法管辖区内的注册或许可要求约束。本出版物基于我们认为可靠的公开信息来源,但我们并不保证其准确性或完整性。我们不会就报告信息或本文观点的任何变更向您提供建议。本出版物由本文所述实体编制并发布,仅供符合资格的对手方或专业客户分发。 本出版物并非买卖任何证券的要约,也不构成投资、法律或税务建议。文中所述投资可能不适合您。投资者应根据自身具体情况,在咨询专业顾问后自行做出投资决策。投资价值可能出现波动,以外币计价的投资可能因汇率变动而价值波动。过往投资表现信息未必是未来表现的指引、指标或保证。

This report is directed to and intended only for our clients who are “eligible counterparties”, “professional clients”, “institutional investors” and/or “professional investors” as defined by the aforementioned regulators, and must not be redistributed to retail clients as defined by the aforementioned regulators. Retail clients who receive this report should note that the services of the entities noted herein are not available to them and should not rely on the material herein to make an investment decision. The result of such act will not hold the entities noted herein liable for any loss thus incurred as the entities noted herein are not registered/authorised/ licensed to deal with retail clients and will not enter into any contractual agreement/arrangement with retail clients. This report is provided subject to the terms and conditions of any agreement that the clients may have entered into with the entities noted herein. All research reports are disseminated on a simultaneous basis to eligible clients through electronic publication to our client portal. The information is private and confidential and for the use of the clients only.
本报告仅针对并旨在提供给符合前述监管机构定义的“合格交易对手”、“专业客户”、“机构投资者”和/或“专业投资者”的客户,且不得向前述监管机构定义的零售客户进行再分发。收到本报告的零售客户应注意,本报告中提及的实体不为其提供服务,且不应依赖本报告中的材料做出投资决策。此类行为的结果将不会使本报告中提及的实体对因此产生的任何损失承担责任,因为这些实体未注册/授权/许可与零售客户进行交易,也不会与零售客户签订任何合同协议/安排。本报告的提供受客户可能与本报告中提及的实体签订的任何协议的条款和条件的约束。所有研究报告均通过电子方式发布到我们的客户门户网站,同时分发给符合条件的客户。该信息为私密且机密,仅供客户使用。

This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but the entities noted herein do not warrant or represent (express or implied) as to the sources of information or data contained herein are accurate, complete, not misleading or as to its fitness for the purpose intended even though the entities noted herein rely on reputable or trustworthy data providers, it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are the author(s)’ current opinions as of the date appearing on the material only and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in the opinions herein.
本报告仅供信息参考之用,基于我们认为可靠的当前公开信息编制,但本文件所述实体对其中包含的信息或数据来源的准确性、完整性、无误导性或适用性不作任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,即使本文件所述实体依赖声誉良好或可信赖的数据提供商,也不应据此依赖。所表达的意见仅为作者截至材料所示日期的当前意见,我们不就报告信息或本文件中的意见的任何变更向您提供建议。

This publication was prepared and issued by the entity referred to herein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professional clients. The information in this report is intended for general circulation and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security, investment, legal or tax advice nor a personal recommendation, as defined by any of the aforementioned regulators. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. The report has not been reviewed by any of the aforementioned regulators and does not represent any official recommendation from the aforementioned regulators. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable for you. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with advice sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient of the recommendation, before the recipient makes a commitment to purchase the investment product.
本出版物由文中所指实体编制并发布,仅供分发给合格对手方或专业客户。本报告中的信息旨在广泛传播,不构成对任何证券、投资、法律或税务建议的购买或出售要约,也不构成前述任何监管机构定义的个人推荐。报告未考虑个别投资者的特定投资目标、财务状况或需求。本报告未经前述任何监管机构审阅,不代表前述监管机构的任何官方推荐。文中提及的投资可能不适合您。投资者在决定购买投资产品前,必须结合财务顾问就投资产品适用性提供的建议(需考量推荐接收者的具体投资目标、财务状况或特殊需求),自行做出投资决策。

The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The information in this report does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any offer to purchase or subscribe for shares, or to induce engage in any other investment activity. The value of any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report may fluctuate subject to market conditions. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicative of, or assurance of future performance. Estimates of future performance mentioned by the research analyst in this report are based on assumptions that may not be realized due to unforeseen factors like market volatility/fluctuation. In relation to securities or financial instruments denominated in a foreign currency other than the clients’ home currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favorable or unfavorable. Before acting on any recommendations in this report, recipients should consider the appropriateness of investing in the subject securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report and, if necessary, seek for independent professional advice.
本文所含分析基于多项假设。不同假设可能导致实质性差异的结果。本报告中的信息不构成也不形成任何出售或发行股份的要约,或任何购买或认购股份的要约,或诱导进行任何其他投资活动。本报告中提及的任何证券或金融工具的价值可能随市场条件波动。有关投资过往表现的信息未必是未来表现的指引、指标或保证。研究分析师在本报告中提及的未来表现预估基于可能因市场波动等不可预见因素而无法实现的假设。对于以客户本币以外的外币计价的证券或金融工具,汇率变动将对价值产生有利或不利影响。 在根据本报告中的任何建议采取行动之前,接收者应考虑投资于本报告中提及的相关证券或金融工具的适宜性,并在必要时寻求独立的专业建议。

The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors where that permission profile is not consistent with the licenses held by the entities noted herein. This document is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject the entities noted herein to any regulation or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
本文所述的证券可能并非在所有司法管辖区或面向某些类别的投资者均可销售,若该许可范围与本文所述实体所持牌照不一致。本文件仅在法律允许的范围内进行分发。其并非针对或意图分发给任何公民、居民或位于任何地区、州、国家或其他司法管辖区的个人或实体,若在该等司法管辖区内的分发、发布、可得性或使用将违反法律或法规,或会使本文所述实体受到该司法管辖区内的任何监管或许可要求约束。

Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.
来源:彭博指数服务有限公司。BLOOMBERG®是彭博财经有限合伙公司及其附属公司(统称“彭博”)的商标和服务标志。彭博或彭博的许可方拥有彭博指数的所有专有权。彭博或彭博的许可方均未批准或认可本材料,也不保证本文所含任何信息的准确性或完整性,或就由此获得的结果作出任何明示或默示的保证,并且在法律允许的最大范围内,对于由此产生的任何损害或伤害均不承担任何责任或义务。

No part of this material may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted or otherwise made available without prior consent of the entities noted herein. Copyright Bernstein Institutional Services LLC Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A., Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). All rights reserved. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is strictly prohibited. The entities noted herein may pursue legal action if the unauthorized use results in any defamation and/or reputational risk to the entities noted herein and research published under the Bernstein and Autonomous brands.
本材料的任何部分未经本文所述实体事先同意,不得复制、分发、传播或以其他方式提供。版权所有 Bernstein Institutional Services LLC、Bernstein Autonomous LLP、BSG France S.A.、Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司、Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited、Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited(SEBI 注册号 INH000006378)、Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited 及 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)。保留所有权利。本文所含商标和服务标记均为其各自所有者财产。任何未经授权使用或披露行为均被严格禁止。若未经授权使用导致本文所述实体及以 Bernstein 和 Autonomous 品牌发布的研究遭受诽谤和/或声誉风险,相关实体可能采取法律行动。