绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性影响的倒U型之旅
An inverted U-shaped journey of the impact of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability

王伟红 徐晓 向宇彤
Wang Weihong, Xu Xiao, Xiang Yutong

（山东财经大学会计学院，济南 250014 ）
(School of Accounting, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014)

作者简介：王伟红，女，管理学博士，山东财经大学会计学院副教授、硕士生导师，研究方向：会计管制与公司治理。徐晓，女，山东财经大学会计学院硕士生，研究方向：资本市场财务与会计。向宇彤，男，山东财经大学会计学院硕士生，研究方向：绿色经济与数字经济。
Author Resume：Wang Weihong, female, PhD in Management, Associate Professor and Master Supervisor of School of Accounting, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, research direction: accounting control and corporate governance. Xu Xiao, female, Master student of School of Accounting, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, research direction: capital market finance and accounting. Yutong Xiang, Male, Master Student, School of Accounting, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, research interests: green economy and digital economy.

[基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“国企混改促进价值链重构的 机制、效果与推进策略研究”(项目编号：22BGL100)；山东省社会科学规划研究项目“高质量发展视域下农业产业链延伸对绿色创新效率的影响研究”（批准号23CGLJ23）、山东财经大学研究生创新项目“数字化转型对企业产业链投资效率的影响研究”（批准号CX240803）]
[Funded by: General Project of National Social Science Foundation of China, "Research on the Mechanism, Effect and Promotion Strategy of State-owned Enterprises' Mixed Reform for Value Chain Reconstruction" (Project No. 22BGL100); Shandong Province Social Science Planning Research Project, "Study on the Influence of Agricultural Industry Chain Extension on the Research on the Impact of Agricultural Chain Extension on Green Innovation Efficiency in the Perspective of High-Quality Development" (Grant No. 23CGLJ23); Shandong University of Finance and Economics Graduate Student Innovation Project "Research on the Impact of Digital Transformation on the Investment Efficiency of Enterprise Chain" (Grant No. CX240803)].

绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性影响的倒U型之旅
An inverted U-shaped journey of the impact of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability

摘要：绿色转型成为目前缓解环境压力和响应数字技术发展的主动选择，厘清绿色转型与财务脆弱性间的关系对企业的财务稳健和绿色发展至关重要。本文采用2015-2022年沪深A股上市公司的数据，基于短期与长期的双重视角分析绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的影响及其路径。研究发现：（1）绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性存在先上升后下降的倒U型动态阶段性差异，转型初期加剧企业财务脆弱性，随着绿色转型的推进缓解财务脆弱性。经过UTEST、内生性检验和其他稳健性检验后，这一结论仍然成立。（2）影响机制发现，缓解融资约束、提升环境绩效和声誉资本是绿色转型降低企业财务脆弱性的主要渠道。（3）异质性分析表明，倒U型关系在地区经济发展水平较高企业、技术密集型企业、公式治理水平较好以及人力资本结构比较优化的企业更为显著。本文探讨了绿色转型所带来的财务状况的动态权衡，为企业匹配绿色发展背景下的战略调整提供了理论依据与实践指导，在制定绿色发展政策和企业战略时，应充分考虑绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的非线性关系，并重视外部环境和企业特征差异性的影响。
Abstract: Green transformation has become an active choice to alleviate environmental pressure and respond to the development of digital technology at present, and clarifying the relationship between green transformation and financial vulnerability is crucial to the financial soundness and green development of enterprises. This paper adopts the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2015 to 2022 to analyze the impact of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability and its path based on the dual perspectives of short-term and long-term. It is found that (1) there is an inverted U-shaped dynamic stage difference between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability that first rises and then falls, with the initial stage of transformation exacerbating corporate financial vulnerability and alleviating financial vulnerability with the advancement of green transformation. This finding still holds after UTEST, endogeneity test and other robustness tests. (2) The influence mechanism finds that alleviating financing constraints, improving environmental performance and reputational capital are the main channels through which green transformation reduces corporate financial vulnerability. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship is more significant in firms with higher levels of regional economic development, technology-intensive firms, better levels of formula governance, and more optimized human capital structures. This paper discusses the dynamic trade-off of financial status brought by green transformation, which provides theoretical basis and practical guidance for strategic adjustment in the context of matching green development of enterprises, and when formulating green development policies and enterprise strategies, the non-linear relationship between green transformation and enterprise financial vulnerability should be fully considered, and the influence of the external environment and the variability of enterprise characteristics should be emphasized.

关键词：绿色转型；财务脆弱性；融资约束；环境绩效；声誉资本
Keywords: green transition; financial vulnerability; financing constraints; environmental performance; reputational capital

中图分类号：F273.7；F275.5 文献标识码：A
CCS: F273.7; F275.5 Literature Identifier: A

一、引言
I. Introduction

随着全球对环境保护意识的提升和可持续发展目标的明确，绿色转型已成为企业发展的必然趋势。在环境规制政策的不断加强和绿色金融市场的快速发展之下，企业绿色转型的外部环境和内部动力正在发生深刻变化。一方面，政府通过排污收费、排污权交易、环保补助等政策措施，不断加大对企业的环保监管力度，迫使企业加快绿色转型步伐；另一方面，绿色债券、绿色信贷等绿色金融工具的推出，为企业绿色转型提供了重要的资金支持。这些外部环境和内部动力的变化，无疑会对企业财务状况产生复杂而深远的影响。
With the global awareness of environmental protection and the clarification of the goal of sustainable development, green transformation has become an inevitable trend of enterprise development. Under the continuous strengthening of environmental regulatory policies and the rapid development of the green financial market, the external environment and internal dynamics of enterprises' green transformation are undergoing profound changes. On the one hand, the government through sewage charges, sewage rights trading, environmental protection subsidies and other policy measures, and constantly increase the environmental protection supervision of enterprises, forcing enterprises to accelerate the pace of green transformation; on the other hand, the introduction of green bonds, green credit and other green financial tools, for the green transformation of enterprises to provide important financial support. These changes in the external environment and internal dynamics will undoubtedly have a complex and far-reaching impact on the financial situation of enterprises.

绿色转型是一个长期且持续的过程，这一过程涉及经济结构调整、资源再分配和技术升级，面临政策适应成本的增加、环保技术投资带来的资本支出压力，以及履行社会责任可能出现的现金流压力和财务收益实现的延迟，可能导致企业在追求绿色目标与保持财务稳定之间的矛盾愈加显著，由此削弱企业绿色转型的动力，因而厘清绿色转型与财务脆弱性间的关系对企业的财务稳健和绿色发展至关重要。财务稳定是企业健康发展的基石，绿色转型的推进是否影响企业的财务状况？如果这一答案是肯定的，那么其作用机制又是什么？哪些内外部的情境因素会施加影响？对这一系列问题的回答，不仅能够扩展绿色转型的研究边界，也有助于阐明绿色转型对企业财务状况影响的趋势及作用路径，助力我国更稳健地迈向绿色经济和可持续发展。
Green transformation is a long-term and continuous process, which involves economic structural adjustment, resource redistribution and technological upgrading, and faces the increase in policy adaptation costs, the pressure of capital expenditure brought about by investment in environmental protection technologies, and the possible cash flow pressure and delay in the realization of financial returns from the fulfillment of social responsibility, which may lead to the contradiction between the pursuit of green goals and the maintenance of financial stability of the enterprise to be more and more pronounced, thus Weakening the motivation of green transformation, thus clarifying the relationship between green transformation and financial vulnerability is crucial to the financial soundness and green development of enterprises. Financial stability is the cornerstone of healthy development of enterprises, does the promotion of green transformation affect the financial status of enterprises? If this answer is yes, what are the mechanisms at play? What internal and external situational factors exert influence? Answers to this series of questions will not only expand the research boundaries of green transformation, but also help elucidate the trends and paths of green transformation's impact on the financial status of enterprises, and help our country move more steadily towards a green economy and sustainable development.

财务脆弱性是衡量企业在经济波动或财务冲击下维持经营能力的重要指标，也是企业稳定发展的基础(Tevel et al., 2015)。理论上，财务脆弱性反映了企业对外部环境变化的敏感性以及内部资源调配的弹性。尽管财务脆弱性在企业管理与政策制定中的重要性日益凸显，关于其影响因素的研究却仍显不足。从政策视角看，现有研究表明经济政策的不确定性对企业财务脆弱性具有双重作用。一方面，不确定性可能通过加剧企业债务短期化趋势(向古月等，2020)和扩大碳税规模（Falella et al., 2022）^[3] ，增加企业的财务风险；另一方面，宽松的货币政策（Socio and Michelangeli, 2017）^[4]和扩展商业信用规模（Zhang et al.，2024）^[5]能够有效缓解融资约束，从而降低企业的财务脆弱性。从非政策视角出发，政治腐败程度（Le and Doan, 2020）^[6]、资本结构波动（Chong and Kim, 2019）^[7]以及担保网络下企业关联度（吕静等, 2022）^[8]与企业财务脆弱性显著正相关，而股权融资结构和资产使用效率则对财务脆弱性有显著的负向影响（Alslehat, 2022）^[9]。尽管上述研究为理解财务脆弱性影响因素研究提供了重要线索，但企业绿色转型是否以及如何影响财务脆弱性，以及不同类型企业在转型过程中的财务脆弱性差异尚未被系统性的分析。
Financial vulnerability is an important indicator of an enterprise's ability to sustain operations under economic fluctuations or financial shocks, and is also the basis for the stable development of the enterprise (Tevel et al., 2015). Theoretically, financial vulnerability reflects a firm's sensitivity to changes in the external environment and the resilience of internal resource deployment. Despite the growing importance of financial vulnerability in business management and policy making, research on its influencing factors is still insufficient. From a policy perspective, existing research suggests that economic policy uncertainty has a dual effect on firms' financial vulnerability. On the one hand, uncertainty may increase firms' financial risk by exacerbating the trend of short-termization of corporate debt (Xiangguyue et al., 2020) and expanding the scale of carbon tax (Falella et al., 2022) ³ ; on the other hand, loose monetary policy (Socio and Michelangeli, 2017) ⁴ and expanding the scale of commercial credit (Zhang et al., 2024) ⁵ can effectively alleviate the financing constraint, thus reducing the financial vulnerability of enterprises. From a non-policy perspective, the degree of political corruption (Le and Doan, 2020) ⁶ , capital structure volatility (Chong and Kim, 2019) ⁷ , and the degree of firm affiliation under the collateralized network (Lv et al., 2022) ⁸ are significantly and positively correlated with firms' financial vulnerability, whereas the structure of equity financing and asset efficiency have a significant negative effect on financial vulnerability (Alslehat, 2022) ⁹ . Although the above studies provide important clues for understanding the research on the factors influencing financial vulnerability, whether and how corporate green transformation affects financial vulnerability and the differences in financial vulnerability among different types of firms in the transformation process have not been systematically analyzed.

绿色转型作为推动企业可持续发展的战略选择，其研究已成为学术关注的热点，尤其在中国这一绿色转型的主要实践场域，研究的广泛性和系统性更为显著。梳理相关文献发现，现有理论研究更多聚焦于绿色转型的驱动因素、实施路径及模式，而对其作用效果的实证研究则主要集中于经济绩效和环境绩效两方面。在环境绩效方面，多数学者认为绿色转型能够通过绿色设计、绿色采购、绿色制造、绿色营销和绿色回收等手段，显著提升企业的环境治理效果（Hou et al., 2018）^[10]。在经济绩效方面，研究结论则呈现明显分歧。一方面，绿色转型能够通过增强供应链协同（Bai et al., 2014）^[11]、激励绿色技术创新（Shao et al., 2020）^[12]、引发绿色溢价（Chen and Ma, 2023）^[13]等机制，提高股票收益（Bruhl, 2022）^[14]以及提升制造企业盈利能力（徐枫等, 2022）^[15]。另一方面，绿色转型可能导致环境保护费用的粘性增加（Kozar and Sulich, 2023）^[16]，并因高成本投入和盈利回报滞后而加剧企业财务压力（Lei et al., 2024）^[17]。这些研究揭示了绿色转型作为一种长期性战略可能带来的双重效应，表明其影响具有复杂性和动态性。然而，现有的研究尚未涉及分析绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的动态差异化影响及其作用机制，因而打开绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性影响的“黑箱”，探索其内在机理成为本文的研究目标。
As a strategic choice to promote sustainable development of enterprises, research on green transformation has become a hot spot of academic attention, especially in China, which is the main practice field of green transformation, the research is more extensive and systematic. After combing through the relevant literature, we found that the existing theoretical research focuses more on the driving factors, implementation paths and modes of green transformation, while the empirical research on its effects mainly focuses on economic performance and environmental performance. In terms of environmental performance, most scholars believe that green transformation can significantly improve the environmental governance effect of enterprises through green design, green procurement, green manufacturing, green marketing and green recycling (Hou et al., 2018) ^{[1 0} . In terms of economic performance, the research findings show clear divergence. On the one hand, green transition can enhance stock returns through mechanisms such as enhancing supply chain synergies (Bai et al., 2014) ¹¹ , incentivizing green technological innovations (Shao et al., 2020) ^{[1 2} , and triggering a green premium (Chen and Ma, 2023) ¹³ ( (Bruhl, 2022) ¹⁴ as well as enhancing the profitability of manufacturing firms (Xu Feng et al., 2022) ¹⁵ . On the other hand, green transformation may lead to a sticky increase in environmental protection costs (Kozar and Sulich, 2023) ^{[1 6} and exacerbate financial pressure on firms due to the high cost of inputs and lagging return on profitability (Lei et al., 2024) ^{[1 7} . These studies reveal the possible dual effects of green transition as a long-term strategy, suggesting that its impacts are complex and dynamic. However, the existing studies have not yet analyzed the dynamic and differentiated impacts of green transformation on the financial vulnerability of enterprises and its functioning mechanism, thus opening the "black box" of the impacts of green transformation on the financial vulnerability of enterprises and exploring its inner mechanism have become the research objectives of this paper.

本文选取2015-2022年沪深A股上市公司的年度数据，测算绿色转型和企业财务脆弱性的相关指标，使用双向固定效应模型探究绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的多维影响与作用路径，并基于外部经济环境、行业特征及企业属性等维度，甄别可能存在的异质性影响。进一步地，构建中介效应检验模型，考察融资约束、环境绩效和声誉资本作为中介变量，如何发挥在绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性关系中的传导作用，进一步深化绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间复杂关系的理解。从理论层面看，本文揭示绿色转型对财务脆弱性的动态作用机制，拓展了绿色转型的研究边界和研究维度，为理解企业如何在可持续发展目标与财务健康之间的平衡提供了新的视角。从实践层面看，研究结果可为政策制定者设计绿色转型支持政策提供科学依据，为企业在绿色发展背景下缓解财务脆弱性、增强转型动力提供实践支撑与指导。
This paper selects the annual data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2015 to 2022, measures the relevant indicators of green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability, uses a two-way fixed effects model to explore the multidimensional impact and path of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability, and screens for possible heterogeneous impacts based on the dimensions of the external economic environment, industry characteristics, and corporate attributes. Further, a mediation effect test model is constructed to examine how financing constraints, environmental performance and reputational capital, as mediating variables, play a transduction role in the relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability, further deepening the understanding of the complex relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability. From the theoretical level, this paper reveals the dynamic mechanism of green transformation on financial vulnerability, expands the research boundaries and dimensions of green transformation, and provides new perspectives for understanding how firms balance between sustainable development goals and financial health. From the practical level, the results of the study can provide a scientific basis for policy makers to design green transformation support policies, and provide practical support and guidance for enterprises to alleviate financial vulnerability and enhance transformation momentum in the context of green development.

本文可能的边际贡献主要体现在以下方面：第一，开拓绿色转型与财务脆弱性研究的交叉领域。现有研究多聚焦于经济政策、政治环境及内部治理对财务脆弱性的影响，而本文则将绿色转型这一具有现实意义的视角纳入分析框架，探索性地检验了绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的影响及其作用机制，揭示企业财务状况在绿色转型过程中呈现的阶段性特征及复杂动态关系，开辟新的路径评估绿色转型在改善企业财务状况方面的潜力。第二，丰富财务脆弱性在中国制度情境下的应用研究。国外关于财务脆弱性的研究范围广泛，涵盖个人、家庭、金融机构、非金融企业及宏观经济等多个层面，而我国在微观企业财务脆弱性领域的研究仍具有较大拓展空间。本文揭示绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的治理效应，为推动我国企业绿色发展提供微观视角下的新见解。第三，揭示绿色转型对企业财务状况的异质性影响，提供差异化政策建议。本文充分考虑经济发展水平、行业属性及公司治理等特征的异质性影响，深入探讨不同条件下绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的差异化影响，提示政府和企业在制定政策和管理策略时需因地制宜，考虑多样化的条件因素，制定更具针对性的措施。
The possible marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects: firstly, it opens up the cross-cutting field of green transition and financial vulnerability research. Existing research focuses on the impact of economic policies, political environment and internal governance on financial vulnerability, while this paper incorporates the perspective of green transformation with practical significance into the analytical framework, exploratively examines the impact of green transformation on the financial vulnerability of enterprises and its functioning mechanism, reveals the stage characteristics and complex dynamic relationship of enterprises' financial status in the process of green transformation, and opens up a new path to assess the green transformation potential in improving the financial status of enterprises. transition in improving the financial status of enterprises, and opens up a new way to assess the potential of green transition. Secondly, it enriches the research on the application of financial vulnerability in China's institutional context. Foreign research on financial vulnerability has a wide range, covering individuals, households, financial institutions, non-financial enterprises and macroeconomics, while China's research on financial vulnerability of micro-enterprises still has much room for expansion. This paper reveals the governance effect of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability, and provides new insights from a micro perspective to promote the green development of enterprises in China. Third, it reveals the heterogeneous impact of green transformation on the financial status of enterprises and provides differentiated policy recommendations. This paper takes into full consideration the heterogeneous effects of the level of economic development, industry attributes and corporate governance characteristics, and explores the differentiated effects of green transformation on the financial vulnerability of enterprises under different conditions, suggesting that the government and enterprises need to take into account diversified condition factors and formulate more targeted measures according to local conditions when formulating policies and management strategies.

二、理论分析与研究假设
II. Theoretical analysis and research hypotheses

（一）绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的直接效应
(i) Direct effects of the green transition on the financial vulnerability of enterprises

绿色转型作为一项战略变革，是一个渐进且持续的过程，其对企业财务脆弱性的影响呈现出短期加剧与长期缓解的动态演化特征，这一特征源于绿色转型阶段性目标的差异性及企业内部资源与外部环境的多重作用机制。
Green transformation, as a strategic change, is a gradual and continuous process, and its impact on the financial vulnerability of enterprises presents a dynamic evolution of short-term exacerbation and long-term mitigation, which stems from the differentiation of the green transformation stage goals and the multiple mechanisms of the enterprise's internal resources and external environment.

在绿色转型的初期阶段，企业可能因技术升级成本、政策压力及市场需求变化而面临流动性不足或资产负债表恶化的风险（Alogoskoufis et al., 2021）。首先，绿色技术研发、环保设备升级及生产流程改造等需要大量前期资金投入（Kozar & Sulich, 2023），而这些投入短期内难以直接转化为经济效益，反而增加企业现金流压力和成本负担，因此企业通常面临资源投入加大与短期收益不足的矛盾，导致财务脆弱性显著加剧（Haveman et al., 2001）^[18]。其次，内部资源的再分配与组织惯性的打破也是短期财务脆弱性的诱因。企业需要调整资源配置以支持绿色目标，这可能造成对原有业务的支持下降，同时因打破组织惯性带来的员工抵触情绪也可能导致运营效率的降低，进一步增加隐性成本。最后，绿色转型初期企业的内生动力和热情不足，多以满足法规要求、规避潜在的法律风险和财务损失为目标，政策要求与企业实际能力间的落差，可能导致企业合规性不足，从而产生额外的罚款或整改成本，因而绿色转型初期作为政策适应期，企业的财务压力可能被放大。
In the initial stage of green transformation, firms may face the risk of illiquidity or balance sheet deterioration due to technology upgrade costs, policy pressure and changes in market demand (Alogoskoufis et al., 2021). First, green technology development, environmental protection equipment upgrading and production process modification require a large amount of upfront capital investment (Kozar & Sulich, 2023), which can hardly be directly translated into economic benefits in the short term, but rather increase the pressure on cash flow and the cost burden of the enterprise, so enterprises are usually faced with the conflict between the increased investment of resources and the lack of short-term returns, resulting in a significant increase in financial vulnerability (Haveman et al., 2001). Haveman et al., 2001) ^{[1 8} . Secondly, the reallocation of internal resources and the breaking of organizational inertia are also triggers of short-term financial vulnerability. Enterprises need to adjust resource allocation to support green goals, which may result in a decline in support for the original business, while employee resistance due to the break in organizational inertia may lead to a reduction in operational efficiency, further increasing hidden costs. Finally, at the initial stage of green transformation, enterprises have insufficient endogenous motivation and enthusiasm, and mostly aim to meet regulatory requirements and avoid potential legal risks and financial losses. The discrepancy between policy requirements and actual capabilities of enterprises may lead to insufficient compliance, which may result in additional fines or rectification costs, and thus the financial pressure on enterprises at the initial stage of green transformation as a period of policy adaptation may be magnified.

随着企业的战略重心逐渐从合规性需求转向以绿色管理实践为核心的可持续增长路径，企业绿色转型意愿与积极性不断增强，绿色转型的长尾效应逐渐显现，成本费用的节约与收入的增长为企业构建更强的财务韧性。首先，随着政府对绿色发展的重视，绿色转型企业可享受相关的税收优惠和政府补助，从而减轻企业的财务负担；其次，绿色技术创新和清洁生产降低能源消耗与污染治理成本（Shao et al., 2020），提高运营效率和盈利能力，也减少企业因环境违规或事故导致的财务损失（Shi et al., 2023）^[19]。再次，长期的绿色实践满足消费者对绿色产品和服务的需求，也迎合上下游企业的绿色供应链要求，业务模式的转型为企业创造了长期稳定的利润增长点。因此，随着绿色转型的推进，领先企业的绿色实践形成标杆效应，推动绿色技术的普及与行业标准的建立，推动全行业在绿色发展方面行为趋同，减少创新的不确定性和风险，绿色转型逐步展现长期经济与社会效益（Rodr guez-Pose and Bartalucci, 2024），如增强客户忠诚度、提升企业声誉和吸引投资者，对企业财务脆弱性产生显著的缓解作用。据此，提出如下假设：
As the strategic focus of enterprises gradually shifts from compliance needs to sustainable growth paths centered on green management practices, the willingness and enthusiasm of enterprises for green transformation continue to increase, and the long-tail effect of green transformation gradually emerges, cost savings and revenue growth build stronger financial resilience for enterprises. First, with the government's emphasis on green development, green transformation enterprises can enjoy relevant tax incentives and government subsidies, thus reducing their financial burden; second, green technology innovation and clean production reduce energy consumption and pollution control costs (Shao et al., 2020), improve operational efficiency and profitability, and also reduce the financial losses of enterprises due to environmental violations or accidents (Shi It also reduces financial losses due to environmental violations or accidents (Shi et al., 2023) ¹⁹ . Again, long-term green practices satisfy consumer demand for green products and services, and also cater to the green supply chain requirements of upstream and downstream enterprises, and the transformation of the business model creates a long-term stable profit growth point for the enterprise. Therefore, with the advancement of green transformation, the green practices of leading enterprises form a benchmarking effect, which promotes the popularization of green technology and the establishment of industry standards, promotes industry-wide behavioral convergence in green development, and reduces the uncertainty and risk of innovation, so that the green transformation gradually demonstrates the long-term economic and social benefits (Rodr guez-Pose and Bartalucci, 2024), such as enhancing customer loyalty, improving corporate reputation and attracting investors, and generating a significant mitigating effect on corporate financial vulnerability. Accordingly, the following hypothesis is proposed:

H1：绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间呈现倒U型关系，即随着绿色转型进程的加深，企业财务脆弱性呈现先上升后下降的态势。
H1: There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between green transition and corporate financial vulnerability, i.e., as the green transition process deepens, corporate financial vulnerability shows a rising and then declining trend.

‌

（二）绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的间接效应
(ii) Indirect effects of green transformation on the financial vulnerability of enterprises

1.缓解融资约束
1. Alleviating financing constraints

企业在绿色转型过程中面临的资本配置挑战与政策支持带来的结构性变化，对企业财务脆弱性产生了短期加重与长期缓解的双重影响。从短期来看，绿色转型可能导致融资需求高、融资成本上升以及融资渠道不确定等问题，从而加剧企业的财务脆弱性。一方面，绿色转型初期需要大量的资金投入，带来的财务波动可能提高企业的信用风险评级，企业也面临绿色项目成熟度较低和市场不确定性较高的困境，导致外部投资者对项目回报率的预期不明，从而增加企业的融资成本和融资难度。另一方面，尽管绿色信贷政策等金融支持逐步推广（Lee and Shin，2018）^[20]，但企业对政策红利的适配性需要时间。部分传统行业企业在绿色转型初期难以达到政策标准或未能获取足够的绿色金融支持，从而进一步制约其融资能力（Yu et al.，2021）^[21]。总而言之，初期绿色转型引致企业现金流紧张以及更高的融资成本，导致短期财务脆弱性加剧。
The capital allocation challenges faced by enterprises in the process of green transformation and the structural changes brought about by policy support have had a dual impact of short-term exacerbation and long-term mitigation of the financial vulnerability of enterprises. In the short term, green transformation may lead to high financing needs, rising financing costs and uncertain financing channels, thus aggravating the financial vulnerability of enterprises. On the one hand, the initial stage of green transformation requires a large amount of capital investment, which brings about financial fluctuations that may raise the credit risk rating of enterprises. Enterprises also face the dilemma of lower maturity of green projects and higher market uncertainty, which leads to uncertainty in the expectations of external investors about the return rate of the project, thus increasing the cost of financing and the difficulty of financing for enterprises. On the other hand, despite the gradual promotion of financial support such as green credit policy (Lee and Shin, 2018) ²⁰ , it takes time for enterprises to adapt to the policy dividends. Some enterprises in traditional industries have difficulties in meeting the policy standards or failing to obtain sufficient green financial support at the initial stage of green transformation, which further constrains their financing ability (Yu et al., 2021) ²¹ . Overall, the initial green transition leads to tighter cash flows and higher financing costs, resulting in increased short-term financial vulnerability.

在长期绿色实践中，绿色转型为企业缓解融资约束、优化资本结构提供了多重路径^[22]。首先，绿色转型符合政府环保政策导向，为企业带来了显著的政策红利，企业在长期转型过程中逐步获得税收优惠、绿色产业基金及低息贷款等政策性金融支持(李戎和刘璐茜，2021)^[23]，降低财务压力。其次，全球资本市场对ESG的重视降低了投资者对企业的风险认知，进一步推动了绿色转型企业成为投资者的优选目标（Martin and Moser, 2016）^[24]。企业通过发行绿色债券或获取绿色信贷，增强资本市场的认可度，可显著降低融资成本（Zhang et al., 2021）^[25]。最后，企业通过推进低碳、低污染的可持续项目，不仅减少了环境违规成本和运营风险，还为企业实现资本的动态优化配置创造条件。长期来看，绿色转型不仅改善了企业的融资环境，还为其资本结构的持续优化和财务健康奠定了坚实基础。据此，提出如下假设：
In the long-term green practice, green transformation provides multiple paths for enterprises to alleviate financing constraints and optimize capital structure ²² . First, green transformation is in line with the government's environmental protection policy orientation, which brings significant policy dividends to enterprises, which gradually obtain policy financial support such as tax incentives, green industry funds and low-interest loans during the long-term transformation process (Li Rong and Lucy Liu, 2021) ²³ and reduce financial pressure. Secondly, the global capital market's emphasis on ESG reduces investors' risk perception of enterprises, further promoting green transformation enterprises as preferred targets for investors (Martin and Moser, 2016) ²⁴ . Enterprises can significantly reduce financing costs by issuing green bonds or obtaining green credit and enhancing capital market recognition (Zhang et al., 2021) ²⁵ . Finally, by promoting low-carbon and low-pollution sustainable projects, enterprises not only reduce the cost of environmental violations and operational risks, but also create conditions for enterprises to realize the dynamic and optimal allocation of capital. In the long run, green transformation not only improves the financing environment of enterprises, but also lays a solid foundation for the continuous optimization of their capital structure and financial health. Accordingly, the following hypotheses are proposed:

H2：绿色转型能够缓解企业融资约束，从而影响企业财务脆弱性。
H2: Green transformation can alleviate corporate financing constraints and thus affect corporate financial vulnerability.

2.提升声誉资本
2. Enhancing reputational capital

绿色转型对企业声誉的短期影响表现为声誉塑造与风险并存，长期影响表现为声誉积累与竞争优势，其影响机制贯穿于企业环境责任履行与利益相关者认知的动态调整中。在绿色转型的初期，企业通过实施绿色项目展示其对环境责任的承诺，绿色措施的效果呈现具有滞后性，若短期未能带来实际改善或被质疑为“绿色漂绿”，则可能引发信任危机，增加声誉波动的风险。
The short-term impact of green transformation on corporate reputation is characterized by the coexistence of reputation shaping and risk, while the long-term impact is characterized by the accumulation of reputation and competitive advantage, and its impact mechanism runs through the dynamic adjustment of the implementation of corporate environmental responsibility and the perception of stakeholders. At the initial stage of green transformation, enterprises demonstrate their commitment to environmental responsibility through the implementation of green projects, and the effect of green measures is characterized by a lag, so if they fail to bring about actual improvements in the short term or are challenged as "greenwashing", they may trigger a crisis of trust and increase the risk of reputation fluctuations.

随着绿色转型的深入推进，企业通过技术创新与环境治理积累了长期声誉资本，从而巩固其行业领导者地位，吸引绿色投资与消费者忠诚度(陈娇娇等, 2023)^[26]，提升市场竞争力。此外，绿色实践与政策协同为企业构建了强大的社会信任基础，即使在面临负面事件时，绿色声誉也能提供缓冲作用(Minor and Morgan, 2011) ^[27]，增强企业的风险韧性。长期来看，绿色转型通过深化企业价值观与社会责任的结合(孙博文，改革)^[28]，为提升声誉资本奠定坚实基础。据此，提出如下假设：
With the deepening of the green transition, firms have accumulated long-term reputation capital through technological innovation and environmental governance, thereby consolidating their position as industry leaders, attracting green investment and consumer loyalty (Jiaojiao Chen et al., 2023) ²⁶ , and enhancing market competitiveness. In addition, the synergy between green practices and policies builds a strong foundation of social trust for firms, and a green reputation can provide a buffer even in the face of negative events (Minor and Morgan, 2011) ²⁷ and enhance firms' risk resilience. In the long run, green transformation lays a solid foundation for enhancing reputational capital by deepening the integration of corporate values and social responsibility (Sun Bowen, Reform) ²⁸ . Accordingly, the following hypotheses are proposed:

H3：绿色转型能够提升企业声誉资本，从而影响企业财务脆弱性。
H3: Green transformation enhances firms' reputational capital, which affects firms' financial vulnerability.

3.提高环境绩效
3. Improving environmental performance

绿色转型对企业环境绩效的短期和长期影响展现出渐进优化的动态特征，其作用机制涉及资源投入、技术升级与组织变革的多重维度。绿色转型初期，企业需集中大量资源进行环保设施升级与生产流程调整，这种高成本投入可能短期内未能显著降低污染排放或提升资源利用效率，加之绿色技术的初步实施需要经过试验和优化，预期的减排效果可能滞后于政策或社会期望，进一步限制环境绩效的短期提升(Fortune,2015)^[29]。同时，组织惯性和员工技能不足可能导致新技术与生产流程的适配性不佳，甚至因调整不当而引发资源浪费和短期环境绩效波动。
The short- and long-term impacts of green transformation on the environmental performance of enterprises show the dynamic characteristics of gradual optimization, and its mechanism involves multiple dimensions of resource inputs, technological upgrading and organizational changes. At the initial stage of green transformation, enterprises need to focus a large amount of resources on upgrading environmental protection facilities and adjusting production processes, and such high-cost inputs may fail to significantly reduce pollution emissions or improve the efficiency of resource utilization in the short term, coupled with the need to test and optimize the initial implementation of green technologies, the expected emission reduction effect may lag behind the policy or social expectations, further limiting short-term enhancement of environmental performance (Fortune, 2015). 2015) ^{[2 9} . At the same time, organizational inertia and lack of employee skills may lead to poor adaptation of new technologies to production processes, or even waste of resources and short-term environmental performance fluctuations due to inappropriate adjustments.

当绿色实践内化为企业战略后，为了实现环境责任与生产目标的深度融合，企业通过技术创新和流程优化实现清洁生产与资源集约利用的协同效应，碳排放、污染物排放和能源消耗显著降低，环境治理能力增强企业的抗风险能力和盈利能力(Lei et al.，2024)^[30]，最终实现环境与经济绩效的双赢格局。据此，提出如下假设：
When green practices are internalized into corporate strategies, in order to achieve the deep integration of environmental responsibility and production goals, enterprises achieve synergistic effects of cleaner production and intensive resource utilization through technological innovation and process optimization, carbon emissions, pollutant emissions and energy consumption are significantly reduced, and environmental governance capacity enhances the enterprise's risk-resistant ability and profitability (Lei et al., 2024) ³ < b1> , and ultimately realize the win-win pattern of environmental and economic performance. Accordingly, the following hypotheses are proposed:

H4：绿色转型能够提高企业环境绩效，从而影响企业财务脆弱性。
H4: Green transformation improves firms' environmental performance, which affects firms' financial vulnerability.

三、研究设计
III. Research design

（一）数据来源与样本选择
(i) Data sources and sample selection

2015年的中共十八届五中全会上，绿色发展、创新、协调、开放、共享的五大理念共同构成我国现行绿色转型的发展理念，并全面推进绿色转型落地实施。因此，本文选择2015年至2022年沪深两市的A股上市公司作为研究对象。本文的被解释变量及大部分的企业特征数据均来自于国泰安（CSMAR）数据库，解释变量的数据来自上市公司年报并通过文本分析获得。
At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2015, the five concepts of green development, innovation, coordination, openness and sharing together constitute the development concept of China's current green transformation, and comprehensively promote the implementation of green transformation on the ground. Therefore, this paper chooses A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2015 to 2022 as the research object. The explanatory variables and most of the corporate characteristics data in this paper are from the database of Cathay Pacific (CSMAR), and the data of the explanatory variables are from the annual reports of listed companies and obtained through text analysis.

为确保分析结果稳健可靠，本文对样本数据进行了筛选处理：剔除ST、*ST及金融类企业样本以及关键数据缺失的企业样本。此外，为了避免离群值对分析结果产生较大影响，本文还对所有微观连续变量采用Winsorize方法，进行了双侧1%的缩尾处理。经过预处理后，本文最终保留3675家上市公司共17608个年度观测值的面板数据集，实证分析部分使用Stata MP软件的17.0版本。
In order to ensure that the analysis results are robust and reliable, the sample data in this paper are screened and processed: the samples of ST, *ST and financial enterprises and the samples of enterprises with missing key data are excluded. In addition, in order to avoid the large impact of outliers on the analysis results, this paper also adopts the Winsorize method for all micro-continuous variables, and carries out the two-sided 1% shrinkage treatment. After preprocessing, the paper finally retains a panel dataset of 3675 listed companies with a total of 17,608 annual observations, and the empirical analysis part uses version 17.0 of Stata MP software.

（二）模型构建
(ii) Modeling

为研究绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的影响，本文构建如下的面板固定效应模型。
In order to study the impact of green transition on corporate financial vulnerability, this paper constructs the following panel fixed effects model.

模型（1）检验绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性是否存在线性关系，模型（2）用于检验绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间是否存在非线性关系。其中，表示i企业t年份的财务脆弱性，是被解释变量；表示企业绿色转型变量，是解释变量，GT²表示绿色转型的二次项； 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙表示控制变量集合，是企业特征中可能影响财务脆弱性的相关因素集合；𝛿表示年份固定效应，由于企业的业务经营具有差异性，存在淡旺季等周期性、时间性差别，因此年份特征可能对财务脆弱性的影响具有差异性；𝜇表示个体固定效应，𝜀表示随机扰动项。
Model (1) tests whether there is a linear relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability, and model (2) is used to test whether there is a nonlinear relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability. Where, denotes the financial vulnerability of firm i in year t, which is the explanatory variable; denotes the green transition variable of firms, which is the explanatory variable, and GT ² denotes the quadratic term of green transition; 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑙 denotes the set of control variables, which is the set of relevant factors in firm characteristics that may affect financial vulnerability; 𝛿 denotes the year fixed effect, which is the variability in the possible impact of year characteristics on financial vulnerability due to the variability in the business operations of the firms, which are characterized by cyclical and temporal differences, such as low and high seasons; 𝜇 denotes individual fixed effects and 𝜀 denotes a randomized disturbance term.

为检验融资约束、声誉资本、环境绩效在绿色转型影响企业财务脆弱性过程中的传导作用，本文构建模型（3）检验企业绿色转型是否影响机制变量，构建模型（4）来检验机制变量的中介作用。
In order to test the transmission role of financing constraints, reputational capital, and environmental performance in the process of green transformation affecting the financial vulnerability of enterprises, this paper constructs model (3) to test whether the green transformation of enterprises affects the mechanism variables, and constructs model (4) to test the mediating role of the mechanism variables.

本文借鉴温忠麟等(2004)对中介效应检验的思路和方法，分三步来验证上述模型中，，，的显著性来检验机制变量M_it的中介作用。检验思路如下：第一步检验总效应。若企业绿色转型影响财务脆弱性，即显著，可进行下一步的检验，否则终止检验。第二步，观察模型（3）和（4）中的回归系数和。如果和均显著，则表明机制变量在二者之间发挥了中介作用；若和中有一个不显著，则需要Bootstrap检验；若均不显著，则需终止检验。第三步，观察模型（4）的回归系数，若显著，则机制变量在绿色转型和财务脆弱性之间发挥了部分中介作用；而若不显著，则表明中介变量发挥了完全中介作用。
This paper draws on the ideas and methods of Wen Zhonglin et al. (2004) on the mediation effect test, in three steps to verify the significance of , , , in the above model to test the mediating role of the mechanism variable M _it . The test idea is as follows: the first step tests the total effect. If corporate green transformation affects financial vulnerability, i.e., is significant, the next step of the test can be carried out, otherwise the test is terminated. In the second step, observe the regression coefficients and in models (3) and (4). If both and are significant, it indicates that the mechanism variable plays a mediating role between the two; if one of and is not significant, a Bootstrap test is needed; if neither of them is significant, the test is terminated. The third step is to observe the regression coefficients of model (4), if is significant, the mechanism variable plays a partial mediating role between green transition and financial vulnerability; while if is not significant, it indicates that the mediating variable plays a full mediating role.

‌‌（三）变量测度与说明
(iii) Variable measurement and description

1.被解释变量
1. Explained variables

企业财务脆弱性是本文的被解释变量，用Z表示。Z值越低，表明企业财务状况越不安全。Altman(2005)最早提出适用于新兴市场经济体企业的修正Z值（Z-Score）模型，学者们均以该模型为基础加以拓展优化。本文参考刘云华等(2023)的研究，采用的计算公式如下：
Corporate financial vulnerability is the explanatory variable of this paper, which is denoted by Z. The lower the Z-value, the more insecure the financial status of the enterprise.Altman (2005) firstly proposed the modified Z-score model for enterprises in emerging market economies, and scholars have expanded and optimized the model based on it. In this paper, we refer to the research of Liu Yunhua et al. (2023) and adopt the following calculation formula:

分别表示企业的营运资本、留存收益和息税前利润，是所有者权益账面价值与企业负债的比值，表示营业收入与企业资产总额的比值。根据Z评分法，计算出的样本分数有两个临界值，分别是2.67和1.81。若Z>2.67，表明企业财务状况良好；Z<1.81时，表明企业陷入财务困境；当1.81<Z<2.67时，说明企业的财务状况极不稳定，发生财务困境的可能性较大。根据式（5）计算所得的结果Z，将其反向取值记为Z2；Z2值越高，说明企业财务脆弱性越高。
denotes the working capital, retained earnings and EBITDA of the enterprise respectively, is the ratio of the book value of owner's equity to the liabilities of the enterprise, and denotes the ratio of operating income to the total assets of the enterprise. According to the Z-score method, there are two critical values for the calculated sample scores, which are 2.67 and 1.81. If Z>2.67, it indicates that the enterprise is in good financial condition; when Z<1.81, it indicates that the enterprise is in financial difficulties; when 1.81

2.解释变量
2. Explanatory variables

企业绿色转型为解释变量，用GT表示。参考周阔(2022)的研究，根据“十二五规划”、《环境保护法》《绿色制造标准化白皮书》《企业环境行为评价技术指南》和《中国制造2025》等众多绿色转型的政策文件，从宣传倡议、战略理念、技术创新、排污治理和监测管理5个方面，采用文本分析法，选取113个关键词描述企业绿色转型，利用Python统计各个关键词在上市企业年报文本中出现的词频数，加1后取自然对数构建企业绿色化转型数值。
Enterprise green transformation is the explanatory variable, denoted by GT. Referring to the study of Zhou Gao (2022), based on many policy documents on green transformation such as the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Environmental Protection Law, the White Paper on Green Manufacturing Standardization, the Technical Guidelines for the Evaluation of Corporate Environmental Behavior, and Made in China 2025, 113 keywords were selected to describe corporate green transformation in terms of publicity initiatives, strategic concepts, technological innovations, sewage treatment and monitoring and management in five aspects. 5 aspects, using text analysis method, 113 keywords were selected to describe the green transformation of enterprises, and Python was used to count the number of word frequencies of each keyword appearing in the text of the annual reports of listed enterprises, and the natural logarithm was taken to construct the value of greening transformation of enterprises after adding 1.

3.中介变量
3. Mediating variables

（1）融资约束（SA）。目前常用的企业融资约束衡量方法主要是 WW指 数、SA指数、KZ指数等。参考Hadlock和Pierce(2010)的研究，本文选择采用SA 指数衡量企业的融资约束水平。
(1) Financing constraints (SA). Currently, the commonly used methods to measure corporate financing constraints are WW index, SA index, KZ index, etc. In this paper, we choose to use SA index to measure the level of corporate financing constraints. Referring to the research of Hadlock and Pierce (2010), this paper chooses to adopt SA index to measure the level of corporate financing constraints.

（2）声誉资本（CR）。本文参考郭文伟等(2024)的研究设计，以企业每年网络和报刊正面报道数量之和加1取自然对数度量企业声誉，所统计的新闻为原创（非转载），即不同媒体发布的同一内容新闻不重复计数。
(2) Reputation capital (CR). In this paper, we refer to the research design of Guo, Wenwei et al. (2024), which measures corporate reputation as the natural logarithm of the sum of the number of positive reports on the Internet and in the press each year, plus one, with the news counted being original (not reprinted), i.e., news of the same content published by different media are not counted repeatedly.

（3）环境绩效（EP）。参考曲昱晓(2023)的研究，环境绩效指标由以下部分组成：①企业是否具有环保理念；②是否有环境保护目标；③是否采用了环境保护管理制度；④是否进行过环境保护教育培训；⑤是否有环境保护专项行为；⑥是否采用环境事件应急机制；⑦企业是否有“三同时”制度；⑧是否获得过环境保护方面的荣誉或奖励；⑨企业是否通过了ISO14001认证。企业每满足上述项目得1分，不满足得0分，将加总得分作为企业环境绩效的代理变量。
(3) Environmental Performance (EP). Referring to the research of Qu Yuxiao (2023), the environmental performance index consists of the following parts: ① whether the enterprise has the concept of environmental protection; ② whether it has the goal of environmental protection; ③ whether it adopts the management system of environmental protection; ④ whether it has carried out the education and training of environmental protection; ⑤ whether it has the special behavior of environmental protection; ⑥ whether it adopts the emergency response mechanism of the environmental incident; ⑦ whether the enterprise has the "three simultaneous" system; ⑧ whether it has received the honor or award of environmental protection; ⑨ whether it has passed the ISO14001 certification. At the same time" system; ⑧ whether it has received honors or awards for environmental protection; ⑨ whether the enterprise has passed ISO14001 certification. Enterprises that meet each of the above items are awarded one point and those that do not are awarded zero points, and the total score is used as a proxy variable for the environmental performance of the enterprise.

4.控制变量
4. Control variables

考虑到其他的因素可能对企业财务脆弱性产生一定的影响，从而有效减弱内生性问题对回归结果的影响。本文控制了企业层面的相关特征变量，包括企业规模、企业年龄、资产负债率、总资产收益率、销售毛利率、现金流比率、两职合一、管理层持股比例、董事会规模、大股东资金占用、标准审计意见。
Considering other factors may have a certain impact on the financial vulnerability of enterprises, so as to effectively attenuate the impact of endogeneity problems on the regression results. In this paper, we control for firm-level variables related to characteristics, including firm size, firm age, gearing ratio, return on total assets, gross sales margin, cash flow ratio, two jobs, management shareholding ratio, board size, fund appropriation by major shareholders, and standard audit opinion.

各主要研究变量的含义与测度见表1。
The meaning and measurement of each of the main study variables are shown in Table 1.

表1 主要研究变量的含义与测度方法
Table 1 Meaning and measurement of the main research variables

四、结果与分析
IV. Results and analysis

（一）描述性统计结果
(i) Descriptive statistical results

表2是主要变量的描述性统计结果，初步与本文预期结果相符合。企业财务脆弱性Z的中位数为2.795，均值为3.993，说明财务脆弱性的总体平均水平超过临界值2.67，平均财务状况较为安全；财务脆弱性的最大值为32.71，最小值仅为0.079，标准差为4.011，说明企业受行业特征和经营特征的影响，财务状况存在较为明显的差异。财务脆弱性的极小值接近0，说明部分企业的财务状况已经较为脆弱。绿色转型GT的最小值为2.1，均值为3.675，表明企业普遍推进绿色转型，但不同企业的绿色转型程度仍然存在一定的差距。除控制变量Lev的VIF值为1.7外，其他变量的VIF值都小于1.6，模型不受多重共线性影响。
Table 2 shows the results of descriptive statistics for the main variables, which are initially consistent with the expected results of this paper. The median of enterprise financial vulnerability Z is 2.795, and the mean is 3.993, indicating that the overall average level of financial vulnerability exceeds the critical value of 2.67, and the average financial situation is more secure; the maximum value of financial vulnerability is 32.71, and the minimum value is only 0.079, with a standard deviation of 4.011, which indicates that the enterprises are affected by the characteristics of the industry and the operating characteristics, and there are more obvious financial situation differences. The minimum value of financial vulnerability is close to 0, indicating that the financial situation of some enterprises is already more fragile. The minimum value of green transition GT is 2.1 and the mean value is 3.675, indicating that enterprises generally promote green transition, but there is still a certain gap between the degree of green transition of different enterprises. Except for the control variable Lev, which has a VIF value of 1.7, the VIF values of other variables are less than 1.6, and the model is not affected by multicollinearity.

表2 描述性统计结果
Table 2 Results of descriptive statistics

（二）基准回归结果
(ii) Baseline regression results

为检验假设H1，本文使用企业层面聚类稳健标准误，首先对模型（1）进行双向固定效应回归检验。表3第（1）和（2）列先将绿色转型（GT）纳入模型，验证绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的影响是否是线性关系；第（3）和（4）列同时将绿色转型的二次项（GT²）纳入模型，检验绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性是否存在非线性效应。
To test hypothesis H1, this paper uses firm-level clustering robust standard errors to first conduct a two-way fixed effects regression test on model (1). Columns (1) and (2) of Table 3 first incorporate green transition (GT) into the model to verify whether the effect of green transition on firms' financial vulnerability is linear; columns (3) and (4) simultaneously incorporate the quadratic term of green transition (GT ² ) into the model to test whether there is a nonlinear effect of green transition on firms' financial vulnerability.

表3 基准回归结果
Table 3 Benchmark regression results

注:***、**、*分别表示1%、5%、10%的显著性水平，括号内是使用企业层面聚类稳健标准误计算的t统计量（下同）
Note:***, **, * denote 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels, respectively, and in parentheses are t-statistics computed using robust standard errors for firm-level clustering (same below)

本文首先检验绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的线性关系。表3的第（1）列仅加入个体和年份固定效应，第（2）列则在第（1）列的基础上添加控制变量。这两列的回归结果表明，绿色转型（GT）与企业财务脆弱性的回归系数虽然为负，却并不显著，表明绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间并非单调的线性关系，因此继续检验二者之间的非线性关系。第（3）列仅加入个体和年份固定效应，第（4）列在第（3）列的基础上添加控制变量，绿色转型平方项（GT²）系数分别为-0.1948（p<0.01）和-0.1072（p<0.01），H1假设得以验证，绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性产生先促进后抑制的倒U型影响，即二者之间具有很强的非线性关系。企业绿色转型达到临界点前，成本投入的激增使得企业财务状况恶化，加剧了企业财务脆弱性；随着企业绿色转型的深入，一定程度上缓解企业财务脆弱性。图1是绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性的二次拟合曲线，可直观地呈现二者间的倒U型关系。
The paper first tests the linear relationship between green transition and firms' financial vulnerability. Column (1) of Table 3 adds only individual and year fixed effects, while column (2) adds control variables to column (1). The regression results in these two columns show that the regression coefficients of green transition (GT) and firm financial vulnerability, although negative, are not significant, indicating that the relationship between green transition and firm financial vulnerability is not monotonically linear, and therefore the test for a non-linear relationship between the two is continued. In column (3), only individual and year fixed effects are added, and in column (4), control variables are added on the basis of column (3), and the coefficients of the squared term of green transition (GT ² ) are -0.1948 (p<0.01) and -0.1072 (p<0.01), respectively, and the hypothesis of H1 is verified, and the inverted U-shape of green transition on corporate financial vulnerability is promoted first and inhibited later, i.e., there is a very strong relationship between them. impact, i.e., there is a strong nonlinear relationship between the two. Before the enterprise green transformation reaches the critical point, the surge of cost inputs makes the enterprise financial situation deteriorate and exacerbates the enterprise financial vulnerability; with the depth of the enterprise green transformation, it alleviates the enterprise financial vulnerability to a certain extent. Figure 1 shows the quadratic fitting curve of green transformation and enterprise financial vulnerability, which can visualize the inverted U-shaped relationship between the two.

根据Haans(2016)的观点，如果仅二次项系数显著，并不能完全验证变量存在倒U型关系，需要对倒U型关系进行UTEST检验。该检验共分为三步，第一步需要检验绿色转型的一次项系数是否大于0以及绿色转型的二次项系数是否小于0且显著。同时满足这两个条件，则初步说明变量间存在倒U型关系；后续的第二步需要检验自变量绿色转型的最小值处是否呈现正向显著关系，最大值处是否呈现负向显著关系；最后一步需要检验曲线的拐点是否包含在自变量的取值区间内。表4采用三步法检验绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性的关系，结果显示，企业绿色转型程度区间范围是（2.1，4.2），转折点是4.2；左侧区间斜率是0.369，右侧区间斜率是-0.2928，二者均在1%水平下显著。这说明绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性存在倒U型关系，假设H1完全得到支持。
According to Haans (2016), if only the coefficient of the secondary term is significant, it does not fully verify the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship of the variables, and it is necessary to carry out a UTEST test for the inverted U-shaped relationship. This test is divided into three steps, the first step needs to test whether the primary term coefficient of green transition is greater than 0 and whether the secondary term coefficient of green transition is less than 0 and significant. At the same time to meet these two conditions, it is initially indicated that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the variables; the second step of the follow-up needs to test whether the minimum value of the green transition of the independent variable shows a positive and significant relationship, and whether the maximum value shows a negative and significant relationship; the last step needs to test whether the inflection point of the curve is included in the range of values of the independent variable. Table 4 uses the three-step method to test the relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability, and the results show that the range of the interval of the degree of green transformation of enterprises is (2.1, 4.2), and the turning point is 4.2; the slope of the left interval is 0.369, and the slope of the right interval is -0.2928, and both of them are significant at the 1% level. This indicates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between green transition and corporate financial vulnerability, and hypothesis H1 is fully supported.

表4 绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性倒U型关系检验结果
Table 4 Results of the test of the inverted U-shaped relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability

（三）稳健性检验
(iii) Robustness tests

1.工具变量法
1. Instrumental variables approach

双向因果问题是常见的内生性问题，考虑到模型还可能存在遗漏变量导致估计结果偏误，以剔除本企业解释变量数值后的行业均值作为工具变量进行2SLS检验，Mean_GT表示剔除本企业绿色转型后的行业均值，Mean_GT²表示剔除本企业绿色转型平方项后的行业均值，使用工具变量Mean_GT和Mean_GT²对GT和GT²分别进行一阶段估计。
The two-way causality problem is a common endogeneity problem, considering that there may also be omitted variables in the model that lead to biased estimation results, the industry mean after excluding the values of the explanatory variables of this enterprise is used as an instrumental variable for the 2SLS test, and Mean_GT denotes the industry mean after excluding the green transformation of this enterprise, and Mean_GT ² denotes the industry mean after excluding the squared term of the green transformation of this enterprise. The industry mean is estimated in one stage using the instrumental variables Mean_GT and Mean_GT ² for GT and GT ² respectively.

一阶段回归结果为表5的列（1）和（2），解释变量GT、GT²与工具变量Mean_GT、Mean_GT²呈显著正相关，表明工具变量满足相关性假设；列（3）为二阶段回归结果，控制内生性后，绿色转型平方项（GT²）对企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为负，在5%的水平下显著，绿色转型（GT）对企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为正，在5%的水平下显著，这表明绿色转型和企业财务脆弱性之间存在倒U型关系，验证了本文结果具有稳健性。有关弱工具变量的检验发现，Shea’ s Partial R²分别为0.1071和0.1029，第一阶段回归F值为785.90和781.84（超过10），p值均为0.000，且Cragg-Donald Wald F统计值大于Stock-Yogo弱工具变量识别F检验在10%显著性水平上的临界值，因此选择Mean_GT和Mean_GT²作为工具变量是有效的。再进行有关工具变量识别不足的检验，Kleibergen-Paap rk LM统计量的p值为0.000，表示在1%水平下拒绝了识别不足的原假设，进一步验证了回归结果的合理性和可靠性。
The results of the first-stage regression are shown in columns (1) and (2) of Table 5, where the explanatory variables GT and GT ² are significantly and positively correlated with the instrumental variables Mean_GT and Mean_GT ² , indicating that the instrumental variables satisfy the assumptions of correlation; column (3) shows the results of the second-stage regression, where controlling for endogeneity, the regression coefficient of the squared term of green transformation (GT ² ) on the corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) has a negative regression coefficient, significant at the 5% level, and the regression coefficient of green transition (GT) on corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) is positive, significant at the 5% level, which suggests that there is an inverted U-shape relationship between green transition and corporate financial vulnerability, verifying that the results of this paper are robust. Tests regarding weak instrumental variables found that Shea' s Partial R ² was 0.1071 and 0.1029, respectively, and the first-stage regression F-values were 785.90 and 781.84 (over 10), both with p-values of 0.000, and the Cragg-Donald Wald F-statistic values were greater than the Stock-Yogo weak instrumental variable identification F-test critical value at 10% significance level, so the selection of Mean_GT and Mean_GT ² as instrumental variables is valid. The test regarding under-identification of instrumental variables is then conducted, and the p-value of Kleibergen-Paap rk LM statistic is 0.000, which indicates that the original hypothesis of under-identification is rejected at the 1% level, further validating the reasonableness and reliability of the regression results.

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表5 内生性处理检验：工具变量法
Table 5 Endogeneity treatment test: instrumental variables approach

2.替换被解释变量
2. Substitution of explanatory variables

为排除指标选取对研究结论的影响，本文采用Ohlson(1980)提出的OSCORE（OS）来替代被解释变量。其值越大，反映企业财务风险越大，企业财务脆弱性加剧。表6第（1）列仅加入个体和年份固定效应，第（2）列在第（1）列的基础上添加控制变量，回归结果显示绿色转型（GT）与企业财务脆弱性（OS）的回归系数为正，但并不显著，即二者之间并非单调的线性关系。第（3）列仅加入个体和年份固定效应，第（4）列在第（3）列的基础上添加控制变量，结果显示，绿色转型（GT）系数和绿色转型二次方项（GT2）系数分别为0.2472和-0.0312，均在1%水平上显著，与主回归结果基本一致。
In order to exclude the influence of indicator selection on the research findings, this paper adopts OSCORE (OS) proposed by Ohlson (1980) to replace the explanatory variables. The larger its value, the greater the financial risk of the firm and the increased financial vulnerability of the firm. Column (1) of Table 6 adds only individual and year fixed effects, and column (2) adds control variables to column (1). The regression results show that the regression coefficients of green transition (GT) and corporate financial vulnerability (OS) are positive but not significant, i.e., they are not monotonically linearly related to each other. Column (3) adds only individual and year fixed effects, and column (4) adds control variables to column (3), and the results show that the coefficient of green transition (GT) and the coefficient of the quadratic term of green transition (GT2) are 0.2472 and -0.0312, respectively, both of which are significant at the 1% level, which is basically the same as the main regression results.

表6 稳健性检验：替换被解释变量
Table 6 Robustness tests: replacing explanatory variables

3.替换解释变量法
3. Substitution of explanatory variables

绿色转型的实现依赖于环境质量的改善和生态承载力的提高，环境保护评级作为对环保行为和环境影响进行综合评估的工具，已逐步超越了传统的合规性检查，更加注重对绿色转型成果的量化与评估，实现了从“保护”到“转型”的逐步推进过程，因而环境保护评级具备作为绿色转型评价指标的潜力。参考周阔(2022)的研究，本文以华证指数评级中的环境保护评级（ES）测度企业绿色化转型， ES²代表绿色转型的二次方项。据表7，加入个体和年份固定效应并添加控制变量后，回归结果显示绿色转型（ES）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为正，但并不显著。进一步地，第（4）列显示，绿色转型（ES）系数和绿色转型二次方项（ES²）系数分别为0.1082和-0.0008，均在10%水平上显著，这说明绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性间的倒U型关系较为稳健。
The realization of green transformation relies on the improvement of environmental quality and ecological carrying capacity, and environmental protection rating, as a tool for comprehensive assessment of environmental protection behaviors and environmental impacts, has gradually transcended the traditional compliance check and paid more attention to the quantification and assessment of the results of green transformation, thus realizing the gradual progress from "protection" to "transformation". It has realized the gradual progress from "protection" to "transformation", and thus the environmental protection rating has the potential to be used as an evaluation index for green transformation. Referring to the study of Zhou Gao (2022), this paper measures the green transformation of enterprises by the environmental protection rating (ES) in the CSI rating, with ES ² representing the quadratic term of green transformation. According to Table 7, after adding individual and year fixed effects and adding control variables, the regression results show that the regression coefficients of green transformation (ES) and corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) are positive but not significant. Further, column (4) shows that the coefficient of green transition (ES) and the coefficient of the quadratic term of green transition (ES ² ) are 0.1082 and -0.0008, respectively, which are both significant at the 10% level, suggesting that the inverted U-shape relationship between green transition and firms' financial vulnerability is more robust.

表7 稳健性检验：替换解释变量
Table 7 Robustness tests: replacing explanatory variables

4.解释变量滞后一期
4. Explanatory variables lagged by one period

本文将绿色转型这一解释变量滞后一期，理由有二：其一，企业的绿色转型通常是个动态且长期的过程，其影响可能辐射未来而不是当前，滞后一期能够更好地捕捉这种时间上的动态传递效应。其二，可以帮助解决内生性问题，因为如果绿色转型和被解释变量在同一时间段内共同变化，可能存在双向因果关系或遗漏变量问题。滞后一期有助于确保绿色转型出现在被解释变量的之前时段，可更清楚地揭示因果关系。结果如表8中第（4）列所示，绿色转型滞后一期（L.GT）和二次方项滞后一期（L.GT²）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数符号与基准回归相符，均在1%的水平下显著，表明绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间存在倒U型关系，基准回归检验结果可靠。
In this paper, the explanatory variable of green transformation is lagged one period for two reasons: first, green transformation of a firm is usually a dynamic and long-term process, and its impact may radiate in the future rather than in the present, and a one-period lag can better capture this dynamic transmission effect over time. Second, it can help to address the endogeneity problem, as there may be a two-way causality or omitted variable problem if the green transition and the explanatory variables change together in the same time period. A one-period lag helps to ensure that the green transition occurs in the previous time period of the explanatory variables, which can reveal causality more clearly. As shown in column (4) of Table 8, the sign of the regression coefficients of green transition lagged by one period (L.GT) and quadratic term lagged by one period (L.GT ² ) and corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) are consistent with the benchmark regression and both are significant at the 1% level, which indicates that there exists an inverted U-shape relationship between green transition and corporate financial vulnerability, and that the benchmark regression test results are reliable.

表8 稳健性检验：解释变量滞后一期
Table 8 Robustness tests: explanatory variables lagged one period

5.排除特殊区间和特殊样本的影响
5. Excluding the effects of special intervals and special samples

疫情期间经济活动呈现非常态性，外生冲击会导致关键指标的非正常波动，这些变化与绿色转型政策的长期效果无关，也无法代表正常经济周期下的绿色转型趋势。另外，为了应对疫情，各国政府可能将政策重心转向公共卫生和短期经济复苏，导致绿色转型相关政策的执行力度减弱或优先级降低，干扰对绿色政策长期效果的研究。为保证结果的普适性和研究结果的准确性，本文从全样本中排除受新冠疫情影响较大的2020年和2021年的观测值，重新回归的结果如表9第（4）列所示。
The extraordinary nature of economic activity during the epidemic and exogenous shocks can lead to abnormal fluctuations in key indicators, changes that are not relevant to the long-term effects of green transition policies and are not representative of green transition trends under normal economic cycles. In addition, in response to the epidemic, governments may shift their policy focus to public health and short-term economic recovery, leading to weaker implementation or lower priority of green transition-related policies and interfering with research on the long-term effects of green policies. To ensure the generalizability of the results and the accuracy of the findings, this paper excludes from the full sample the observations in 2020 and 2021, which are highly affected by the New Crown epidemic, and the results of the regression are shown in column (4) of Table 9.

污染密集型行业企业的碳排放强度、能源依赖度、技术路径与其他行业存在显著差异，在更大的政策压力、更多的监管约束和政策要求下，其绿色转型进程与其他行业不具有可比性，可能影响绿色转型的普适性和可比性，导致模型参数估计偏误，因此，本文排除污染性行业的影响，回归结果如表9第（8）列所示。
The carbon emission intensity, energy dependence, and technology path of enterprises in pollution-intensive industries are significantly different from those of other industries, and their green transition process is not comparable with those of other industries under greater policy pressures, regulatory constraints, and policy requirements, which may affect the universality and comparability of the green transition and lead to biased estimation of the model parameters; therefore, this paper excludes the influence of polluting industries, and the regression results are shown in Table 9 shown in column (8).

由表9的列（4）和（8）可知，第绿色转型（GT）和二次方项（GT2）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数符号与前文回归结果一致，均在10%的水平下显著，绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的倒U型关系依然成立。
As can be seen from columns (4) and (8) of Table 9, the sign of the regression coefficients of the first green transition (GT) and the quadratic term (GT2) with the financial vulnerability of the firms (Z2) are consistent with the previous regression results and are both significant at the 10% level, and the inverted U-shape relationship between the green transition and the financial vulnerability of the firms still holds.

表9 稳健性检验：排除特殊期间和特殊样本
Table 9 Robustness tests: excluding special periods and special samples

五、进一步的分析
V. Further analysis

（一）绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的传导机制检验
(i) Testing the transmission mechanism of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability

前文已经通过了绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的总效应检验，下一步参考前文所述的中介效应三步法模型，检验融资约束、声誉资本、环境绩效在绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的作用路径，对绿色转型与财务脆弱性之间的关系进行更深入的探究。
The previous section has passed the test of the total effect of green transformation on corporate financial vulnerability, and the next step is to test the role paths of financing constraints, reputational capital, and environmental performance between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability with reference to the mediating effect three-step model described in the previous section, so as to conduct a more in-depth investigation of the relationship between green transformation and financial vulnerability.

机制检验一：融资约束。表10第（1）列呈现检验结果，企业绿色转型（GT）的回归系数为-0.0006，但不显著，说明企业绿色转型对融资约束的直接缓解作用并不显著。第（2）列进一步将融资约束（SA2）引入到模型中，融资约束（SA2）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为8.0252，且在1%的水平下显著为正，即显著为正。这一实证结果表明，在企业推进绿色转型的过程中，若企业受到较强的融资约束，企业的资金流无法得到保障，财务脆弱性因而增强，而缓解融资约束明显可以降低企业的财务脆弱性，初步验证影响机制假设H2。但是，由于在上文的分析中，不显著，显著，根据上文的模型设定，和至少一个不显著时，需要进行Bootstrap检验。
Mechanism test I: financing constraints. Column (1) of Table 10 presents the test results, and the regression coefficient of corporate green transformation (GT) is -0.0006, but insignificant, indicating that the direct mitigation effect of corporate green transformation on financing constraints is not significant. Column (2) further introduces financing constraints (SA2) into the model, and the regression coefficient of financing constraints (SA2) and corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) is 8.0252, and it is significantly positive at 1% level, i.e., is significantly positive. This empirical result shows that in the process of green transformation, if the enterprise is subject to strong financing constraints, the financial flow of the enterprise can not be guaranteed, and the financial vulnerability of the enterprise is increased, and the alleviation of the financing constraints can reduce the financial vulnerability of the enterprise, which preliminarily verifies the hypothesis of the mechanism of influence, H2. However, due to the is not significant in the above analysis, and the regression coefficient of is significant, according to the model set up above. are significant, a Bootstrap test is required when at least one of and is not significant according to the modeling setup above.

为进一步检验融资约束在绿色转型和企业财务脆弱性之间的中介作用，本文采用非参数百分位Bootstrap法进行检验，该方法被公认检验力高于Sobel检验。借鉴方杰和张敏强(2012)的研究，将重复抽样样本量设为1000，得到的结果如表11所示，Bootstrap-Z值分别为4.89和17.63，均在1%水平下显著，在95%的置信区间内不包含0，证明融资约束发挥了部分中介作用，即绿色转型通过缓解企业的融资约束，减轻对企业财务脆弱性的负面影响，假设H2得到验证。该结果表明，在绿色高质量发展的环境政策下，绿色转型企业借助于市场上由于政策性信号提供的直接和间接融资渠道，提高获得资金的便利性或者降低资金的获得成本，从而缓解企业的财务脆弱性。
To further test the mediating role of financing constraints between green transition and corporate financial vulnerability, this paper adopts the nonparametric percentile Bootstrap method, which is recognized to have higher testing power than the Sobel test. Drawing on the study of Fang Jie and Zhang Minqiang (2012), the repeated sampling sample size is set to 1000, and the results obtained are shown in Table 11, with Bootstrap-Z values of 4.89 and 17.63 respectively, both significant at the 1% level and not containing 0 within the 95% confidence interval, which proves that financing constraints play a partly intermediary role, i.e., the green transformation, by alleviating the financing constraints of enterprises, and mitigating the negative impact on corporate financial vulnerability, and hypothesis H2 is verified. The result suggests that under the environmental policy of green and high-quality development, green transformation enterprises improve the convenience of obtaining funds or reduce the cost of obtaining funds with the help of direct and indirect financing channels provided by the market due to policy signals, thus alleviating the financial vulnerability of enterprises.

机制检验二：声誉资本。表10列（3）显示企业声誉资本（CR）与绿色转型（GT）的回归系数为0.0025，但不显著，说明企业绿色转型对声誉资本的直接促进作用并不显著。第（4）列声誉资本（CR）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为-0.6671，且在1%的水平下显著为负。这表明在企业推进绿色转型的过程中，若企业社会声誉较差，市场竞争力减弱，财务脆弱性因而增强，而提升声誉水平明显可以降低企业的财务脆弱性，初步验证影响机制假设H3。然而，由于不显著，显著，仍需进一步进行Bootstrap检验。表11中，Bootstrap-Z值分别为4.95和16.92，均在1%水平下显著，且在95%的置信区间内不包含0，验证了H3。
Mechanism test II: Reputational capital. Column (3) of Table 10 shows that the regression coefficient of corporate reputational capital (CR) and green transition (GT) is 0.0025, but not significant, indicating that the direct promotion effect of corporate green transition on reputational capital is not significant. The regression coefficient of reputational capital (CR) and corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) in column (4) is -0.6671, and it is significantly negative at the 1% level. This indicates that in the process of green transformation, if the enterprise's social reputation is poor, the market competitiveness is weakened, and the financial vulnerability is increased, while improving the reputation level can obviously reduce the financial vulnerability of the enterprise, which preliminarily verifies the hypothesis of the impact mechanism H3. However, since is not significant and is significant, it is still necessary to carry out a further Bootstrap test. In Table 11, the Bootstrap-Z values are 4.95 and 16.92, both significant at 1% level and do not contain 0 in the 95% confidence interval, verifying H3.

机制检验三：环境绩效。表10列（3）显示环境绩效（EP）与绿色转型（GT）的回归系数为正但不显著，无法说明绿色转型对声誉资本的具有显著的直接促进作用。第（4）列声誉资本（CR）与企业财务脆弱性（Z2）的回归系数为-0.0275，且在5%的水平下显著为负，即显著为负。这表明在企业推进绿色转型的过程中，若企业环境绩效较差，资源浪费严重，财务脆弱性因而增强，而提升环境绩效明显可以降低企业的财务脆弱性，影响机制假设H4得到初步验证。类似地，进一步进行Bootstrap检验，由表11，Bootstrap-Z值分别为3.16和17.12，均在1%水平下显著，且在95%的置信区间内不包含0。环境绩效在绿色转型影响企业财务脆弱性中也起到部分中介效应的作用，H4得到验证。
Mechanism Test 3: Environmental Performance. Column (3) of Table 10 shows that the regression coefficient of environmental performance (EP) with green transition (GT) is positive but not significant, and it cannot indicate that green transition has a significant direct contribution to reputational capital. In column (4), the regression coefficient between reputational capital (CR) and corporate financial vulnerability (Z2) is -0.0275, and it is significantly negative at 5% level, i.e. is significantly negative. This indicates that in the process of enterprise green transformation, if the enterprise's environmental performance is poor, the resources are wasted seriously, and thus the financial vulnerability is increased, while improving the environmental performance can obviously reduce the financial vulnerability of the enterprise, and the hypothesis of the impact mechanism, H4, has been preliminarily verified. Similarly, further Bootstrap test, from Table 11, Bootstrap-Z values were 3.16 and 17.12, both significant at the 1% level, and in the 95% confidence interval does not contain 0. Environmental performance in the green transformation affects the financial vulnerability of enterprises also play a role in part of the mediating effect of the role of the financial vulnerability of enterprises, and H4 has been verified.

表10 中介效应回归结果
Table 10 Intermediation effect regression results

表11 Bootstrap检验结果
Table 11 Bootstrap test results

（二）异质性讨论
(ii) Heterogeneity discussion

前文关于绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的影响及内在机制是基于全样本的检验，对于具有不同属性特征以及处于不同环境中的企业，结论可能有所不同。因此，本文从经济发展水平的宏观视角、行业属性的中观视角以及企业特征的微观视角分别切入，进一步探讨绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性的异质性作用。
The previous paper on the impact of green transition on the financial vulnerability of enterprises and the intrinsic mechanism is based on the test of the whole sample, and the conclusions may be different for enterprises with different attribute characteristics as well as in different environments. Therefore, this paper further explores the heterogeneous role of green transition on corporate financial vulnerability from the macro perspective of economic development level, the meso perspective of industry attributes, and the micro perspective of corporate characteristics, respectively.

1.经济发展水平异质性分析
1. Analysis of heterogeneity in levels of economic development

我国各省份存在经济发展水平、要素禀赋的差异，发达地区企业因政策支持、技术资源和市场环境更完善，其绿色转型的财务压力可能较小；而欠发达地区企业则可能面临更大的资金和技术约束。本文根据样本省份人均GDP的中位数进行分组，并构建经济发展水平虚拟变量，若高于人均GDP的中位数，则赋值为1，视为相对发达地区，否则赋值为0，视为相对欠发达地区，以此讨论绿色转型在不同的经济发展水平下对财务脆弱性的影响，回归结果如表12所示。
There are differences in the level of economic development and factor endowment among provinces in China. Enterprises in developed regions may face less financial pressure for green transformation due to better policy support, technological resources and market environment, while enterprises in less developed regions may face greater financial and technological constraints. This paper groups the sample provinces according to their median per capita GDP and constructs a dummy variable for the level of economic development. If it is higher than the median per capita GDP, it is assigned the value of 1 and regarded as a relatively developed region; otherwise, it is assigned the value of 0 and regarded as a relatively underdeveloped region, so as to discuss the impact of green transformation on financial vulnerability under different levels of economic development, and the regression results are shown in Table 12.

表12 基于经济发展水平异质性基准回归结果
Table 12 Benchmark regression results based on heterogeneity in levels of economic development

表12列（1）和（2）显示了经济发达地区的回归结果，绿色转型（GT）系数与绿色转型平方（GT²）的系数分别为1.8400和-0.2388，均显著；列（3）和（4）显示了经济欠发达地区的回归结果，绿色转型（GT）和绿色转型平方（GT²）系数的系数分别为-0.1876和0.0281，均不显著，并通过了系数差异检验。这表明，当企业所处地区经济发展水平较高时，绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的倒U型关系表现更为明显。
Columns (1) and (2) of Table 12 show the regression results for economically developed regions, where the coefficients of the Green Transition (GT) coefficient and Green Transition Squared (GT ² ) are significant at 1.8400 and -0.2388, respectively, while Columns (3) and (4) show the regression results for economically underdeveloped regions, where the coefficients of the Green Transition (GT) and Green Transition Squared (GT ²

2.行业异质性分析
2. Analysis of industry heterogeneity

技术密集型企业绿色转型的财务风险主要来自技术研发的不确定性，但成功转型后可能获得更大的竞争优势。资产密集型企业绿色转型的财务风险主要来自巨额资金投入，但长期来看可以降低环境成本，提升企业价值。劳动密集型企业绿色转型的财务风险主要来自劳动力结构调整，但可以通过提高生产效率和降低资源消耗来提升盈利能力。为了探讨绿色转型在缓解企业财务脆弱性方面的行业差异，参考尹美群等(2018)的研究，本文按照证监会2012 行业分类标准将行业按照生产要素的密集程度分为技术密集型、资产密集型和劳动密集型三种类型，并对三组分类进行异质性回归分析。
The financial risk of green transformation for technology-intensive enterprises mainly comes from the uncertainty of technology research and development, but they may gain a greater competitive advantage after successful transformation. The financial risk of green transformation of asset-intensive enterprises mainly comes from huge capital investment, but in the long run it can reduce environmental costs and enhance enterprise value. The financial risk of green transformation for labor-intensive enterprises mainly comes from labor restructuring, but it can enhance profitability by improving production efficiency and reducing resource consumption. In order to explore the industry differences of green transformation in mitigating the financial vulnerability of enterprises, with reference to the study of Yin Meigun et al. (2018), this paper divides the industry into three types of technology-intensive, asset-intensive, and labor-intensive according to the intensity of production factors in accordance with the SEC's 2012 industry classification standard, and conducts heterogeneity regression analysis for the three groups of classifications.

表13 基于行业异质性基准回归结果
Table 13 Benchmark regression results based on industry heterogeneity

由表13回归结果可知：无论是否加入控制变量，列（1）（2）（5）（6）中资本密集型和劳动密集型企业绿色转型（GT）系数和绿色转型二次方（GT2）的系数均不显著；技术密集型企业绿色转型（GT）系数和绿色转型二次方方（GT2）的系数分别为1.5998和-0.2043，且在1%水平上显著。其中，以技术密集型企业为参照组，T-K（技术与资本）与T-L（技术与劳动）的分组系数差异性检验 p值分别为0.005和0.023，在5%水平上显著，分组回归系数具有显著差异性。这说明，绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的倒U型关系在技术密集型行业中体现得更加明显。
From the regression results in Table 13, it can be seen that the coefficients of green transition (GT) coefficient and green transition quadratic (GT2) for capital-intensive and labor-intensive firms in Columns (1)(2)(5)(6) are not significant regardless of the inclusion or exclusion of the control variables; the coefficients of green transition (GT) coefficient and green transition quadratic (GT2) for technology-intensive firms are respectively 1.5998 and - 0.2043 and are significant at 1% level. In particular, using technology-intensive firms as the reference group, the grouped coefficients of T-K (technology and capital) and T-L (technology and labor) were tested for difference p-value of 0.005 and 0.023, respectively, and were significant at the 5% level, and the grouped regression coefficients were significantly different. This indicates that the inverted U-shaped relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability is more pronounced in technology-intensive industries.

3.公司治理水平异质性分析
3. Heterogeneity analysis of corporate governance levels

治理结构完善的企业在资源配置和风险管理中表现更优，能够更好地缓解转型带来的财务脆弱性；相反，治理较差的企业可能因转型成本高企而加剧财务困境。本文参考周宏等(2018)的方法，选择八个公司治理变量：董事长与总经理职务分离、独立董事比例、董事会持股比例和高管比例、第一大股东持股比例、董事会和监事会规模、前三位高管的薪酬之和，并采用主成分分析法，构建公司治理质量综合评价指数（CG），其值越大则表明公司治理质量越高。为了探究不同公司治理水平是否会影响绿色转型与财务脆弱性之间的关系，根据样本公司治理水平的中位数进行分组，分为高治理水平企业和低治理水平企业两组进行分组检验，回归结果如下表14所示。
Firms with a sound governance structure perform better in resource allocation and risk management, and are better able to mitigate the financial vulnerability caused by transformation; on the contrary, firms with poorer governance may exacerbate financial distress due to the high cost of transformation. Referring to the method of Zhou Hong et al. (2018), this paper selects eight corporate governance variables: the separation of the positions of chairman and general manager, the proportion of independent directors, the proportion of board of directors' shareholding and the proportion of executives, the proportion of shares held by the first largest shareholder, the size of the board of directors and supervisory boards, and the sum of the top three executives' remuneration, and adopts the principal component analysis method to construct the Comprehensive Evaluation Index of the Quality of Corporate Governance (CG), whose value is greater to indicate that the company's the higher its value is, the higher the quality of corporate governance is. In order to investigate whether different corporate governance levels affect the relationship between green transformation and financial vulnerability, the sample companies were grouped according to the median of their governance levels, and divided into two groups of high governance level enterprises and low governance level enterprises for group testing, and the regression results are shown in Table 14 below.

表14 基于公司治理水平异质性基准回归结果
Table 14 Benchmark regression results based on heterogeneity in corporate governance levels

表14第（1）、（2）列为高治理水平企业的检验结果，控制相关变量后，绿色转型（GT）和绿色转型平方（GT²）的系数分别为1.2999和-0.1691，在5%的水平下显著；第（3）、（4）列为低治理水平企业的回归结果，第（4）列控制了相关变量的影响，绿色转型（GT）和绿色转型平方（GT²）的系数均不显著。Chow检验p值为0.010，组间差异显著，表明绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性之间的倒U型关系在高治理水平企业组更为明显。
Table 14 columns (1) and (2) show the results of the test for high governance level firms, after controlling for the relevant variables, the coefficients of Green Transformation (GT) and Green Transformation Squared (GT ² ) are 1.2999 and -0.1691, respectively, which are significant at 5% level; columns (3) and (4) show the results of the regression for low governance level firms, and column (4) controls for the relevant variable's The coefficients of Green Transition (GT) and Green Transition Squared (GT ² ) are not significant.The Chow test p-value is 0.010, with a significant difference between the groups, suggesting that the inverted U-shape relationship between Green Transition and firms' financial vulnerability is more pronounced in the group of firms with high governance levels.

4.人力资本结构异质性
4. Heterogeneity of human capital structure

企业的人力资本结构（如员工技能水平、教育背景、管理层经验等）决定了其绿色转型的能力与方向，高技能、多元化背景和丰富经验有助于选择更高效、创新的绿色路径，对和财务脆弱性缓解效果具有重要影响。参考肖士盛等(2022)的研究，将员工研究生以上学历划分为高学历组合，将技术人员、管理人员、财务人员、销售人员定义为企业高技能人才，并以高学历和高技能人才占比平均值为划分标准，分为高、低人力资本结构组企业。
The human capital structure of an enterprise (e.g., employee skill level, educational background, management experience, etc.) determines its ability and direction of green transformation, and high skills, diversified backgrounds, and rich experiences help to choose more efficient and innovative green paths, which have an important impact on and financial vulnerability mitigation effects. Referring to the study of Xiao Shisheng et al. (2022), employees with postgraduate education or above are classified as highly educated portfolio, technicians, managers, financial staff and sales staff are defined as highly skilled personnel of the enterprise, and they are categorized into high and low human capital structure groups of enterprises based on the average of the ratio of highly educated and highly skilled personnel as the division criteria.

据列（1）（2）所示，在员工学历相对较高的企业样本中，无论是否加入控制变量，绿色转型平方（GT2）的系数均为负，且在1%水平上显著，而在非高学历组，绿色转型平方（GT2）的系数均不显著。进一步地，Chow检验p值为0.010，组间差异显著，表明在员工学历较高的企业中，绿色转型对财务脆弱性的影响更为显著。
According to Columns (1) (2), the coefficient of green transition squared (GT2) is negative and significant at the 1% level in the sample of firms with relatively high employee educational attainment with or without the inclusion of control variables, while the coefficients of green transition squared (GT2) are insignificant in the non-highly educated group. Further, the Chow test p-value of 0.010 with significant difference between groups indicates that the effect of green transformation on financial vulnerability is more significant in firms with higher education of employees.

表15 基于公司治理水平异质性基准回归结果
Table 15 Benchmark regression results based on heterogeneity in corporate governance levels

六、结论与建议
vi. conclusions and recommendations

（一）研究结论
(i) Conclusions of the study

绿色转型带来了巨大的资本负担和财务-环境目标冲突的风险，破坏了运营和财政健康——这是一个治理悖论。将这种双重性整合到金融脆弱性框架中，我们的研究将绿色转型整合到金融脆弱性框架中，采用双重时间透镜(短期和长期)来剖析影响路径，并揭示短期成本和长期弹性收益表现出非线性权衡，这种双重动态强调了其对企业财政弹性的治理影响。我们的研究还揭示了影响异质性产生于外部偶然事件和内部阈值。 这些见解推进了生态和经济优先事项的战略协调，为过渡性风险缓解提供了理论基础框架。
The green transition imposes significant capital burdens and the risk of conflicting financial-environmental objectives, undermining operational and financial health - a governance paradox. Integrating this duality into a financial vulnerability framework, our study integrates the green transition into a financial vulnerability framework, employs a dual temporal lens (short- and long-run) to dissect the impact pathways, and reveals that short-run costs and long-run resilience benefits exhibit nonlinear trade-offs, a dual dynamic that underscores its governance implications for firms' financial resilience. Our study also reveals that impact heterogeneity arises from external contingencies and internal thresholds. These insights advance the strategic alignment of ecological and economic priorities and provide a theoretically grounded framework for transitional risk mitigation.

企业实施绿色转型，短期内面临现金流压力，难免加剧财务脆弱性。长期看绿色转型通过缓解融资约束、提升环境绩效和声誉资本，能够为企业提供长效发展动力，增强风险平滑能力，进而降低企业的财务脆弱性。因而绿色转型与企业财务脆弱性存在倒U型关系。绿色转型对企业财务脆弱性存在异质化影响。经济发展水平较高地区的企业、技术密集型企业、公司治理水平较高和人力资本结构较好的企业在绿色转型过程中受益更多。
Enterprises implementing green transformation face cash flow pressure in the short term, which inevitably increases financial vulnerability. In the long run, green transformation can provide long-term development momentum for enterprises by alleviating financing constraints, enhancing environmental performance and reputational capital, enhancing risk-smoothing ability, and thus reducing the financial vulnerability of enterprises. Thus, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between green transformation and corporate financial vulnerability. Green transformation has a heterogeneous impact on the financial vulnerability of enterprises. Enterprises in regions with higher levels of economic development, technology-intensive enterprises, higher levels of corporate governance and better human capital structures benefit more from the green transition process.

2. Theoretical and practical implications

本研究旨在揭示绿色转型过程中企业财务脆弱性的变化规律及机制。在理论层面，研究拓展绿色转型与财务管理交叉领域的研究视野，为理解绿色转型对企业财务风险的动态影响提供新的理论视角和证据支持。在实践层面，研究为企业绿色转型提供决策参考，指导企业评估转型风险与收益，制定合理的绿色转型策略，以降低转型过程中的财务脆弱性并提升转型成效。并为政府制定环境规制与绿色金融政策提供参考，促进政策与企业实践的良性互动与有机结合，共同推动可持续发展目标的实现。
This study aims to reveal the changing rules and mechanisms of corporate financial vulnerability in the process of green transition. At the theoretical level, the study expands the research horizons of the cross-cutting fields of green transformation and financial management, and provides new theoretical perspectives and evidence support for understanding the dynamic impact of green transformation on corporate financial risks. At the practical level, the study provides decision-making references for enterprises' green transformation, guides enterprises to assess the risks and benefits of transformation, and formulates reasonable green transformation strategies to reduce financial vulnerability in the process of transformation and enhance the effectiveness of transformation. It also provides reference for the government to formulate environmental regulation and green financial policies, and promotes the positive interaction and organic combination of policies and enterprise practices, so as to jointly promote the realization of sustainable development goals.

对于政府而言，应优化顶层设计并建立政策协调机制。首先，依据地区差异制定绿色规制政策和激励机制，帮助企业克服路径依赖，推动转型。其次，促进政策协调，如中央与地方绿色金融政策协同发展，加强环境税收和创新税收减免政策，环境与财政政策协调。最后，引导金融机构拓宽绿色项目融资渠道，解决资金困难，支持企业绿色转型。
For its part, the Government should optimize the top-level design and establish a policy coordination mechanism. First, it should formulate green regulatory policies and incentive mechanisms based on regional differences to help enterprises overcome path dependency and promote transformation. Second, it should promote policy coordination, such as synergizing central and local green financial policies, strengthening environmental taxation and innovative tax relief policies, and coordinating environmental and fiscal policies. Finally, guide financial institutions to broaden financing channels for green projects, resolve financial difficulties and support enterprises in their green transformation.

对于企业而言，应根据动态演化的特征，制定绿色战略时兼顾阶段性目标与长期发展路径。一方面，提升高管的绿色认知，将绿色实践与前瞻型环境战略深度融合，推动绿色转型。另一方面，培育绿色文化，改革绿色管理体系，在改革中形成差异化优势，积累绿色形象，打造可持续的竞争优势。
For enterprises, green strategies should be formulated in accordance with the characteristics of dynamic evolution, taking into account both milestones and long-term development paths. On the one hand, it is important to enhance the green awareness of executives, deeply integrate green practices with forward-looking environmental strategies, and promote green transformation. On the other hand, they should cultivate a green culture, reform their green management system, develop differentiated advantages in the process of reform, accumulate a green image, and build a sustainable competitive advantage.

‌6.3 Limitations and future research
6.3 Limitations and future research

This paper deeply discusses how green transformation affects enterprise financial vulnerability, which has certain theoretical value and practical application value, but there are still some certain limitations: First, the samples are limited to the listed companies from 2014 to 2022. Considering the data availability, there is a lack of evidence from non-listed companies. Second, there is no authoritative organization in China to define, evaluate and disclose the professional data of enterprise green transformation, and the related research has not formed a unified measurement system. This study mainly refers to the text analysis method; it may be subjective to focus on environmental protection practice activities within enterprises when selecting keywords related to enterprise green transformation. Third, there is a lack of consideration of the overall green transformation effect in the supply chain, and whether green transformation has peer behavioral relationships among enterprises is yet to be explored, and the subsequent research can analyze the above issues in depth.
This paper deeply discusses how green transformation affects enterprise financial vulnerability, which has certain theoretical value and practical This paper deeply discusses how green transformation affects enterprise financial vulnerability, which has certain theoretical value and practical value, but there are still some certain limitations: First, the samples are limited to the listed companies from 2014 to 2022. First, the samples are limited to the listed companies from 2014 to 2022. Considering the data availability, there is a lack of evidence from non-listed companies. Second, there is no authoritative organization in China to define, evaluate and disclose the professional data of enterprise green transformation, and the related research has not formed a unified measurement system. This study mainly refers to the text analysis method; it may be subjective to focus on environmental protection practice activities within enterprises This study mainly refers to the text analysis method; it may be subjective to focus on environmental protection practice activities within enterprises when selecting keywords related to enterprise green transformation. Third, there is a lack of consideration of the overall green transformation effect in the supply chain, and whether green transformation has peer behavioral relationships among enterprises is yet to be explored, and the subsequent research can analyze the above issues in the supply chain. Third, there is a lack of consideration of the overall green transformation effect in the supply chain, and whether green transformation has peer behavioral relationships among enterprises is yet to be explored, and the subsequent research can analyze the above issues in depth.