How to catch a few 20x to 100x coins during the next bull run ?
如何在下一次牛市中捕捉到几个20倍到100倍的币种?
Lessons from the 2021 best-performers
2021年最佳表现的经验教训
I spent quite some time studying the last bull run, the different narratives that were hot, the profit-maximizing rotations, the best-performing tokens of 2021 and the rationale behind their huge gains.
我花了相当长的时间研究最后一次牛市,热门的不同叙述,利润最大化的轮换,2021年表现最佳的代币以及它们巨大收益背后的理由。
This new cycle won’t be exactly the same as the previous one, but there are many lessons that we should have in our mind, because history rhymes, especially in financial markets, where most of the exuberance comes from the way human brains works… and this does never change.
这个新的周期不会完全和之前的一样,但我们应该记住很多教训,因为历史总是相似的,尤其是在金融市场上,大部分的繁荣来自人类大脑的运作方式...而这是永远不会改变的。
Let’s go straight to it :
让我们直接开始吧
A few general lessons to prepare for the bull run :
为了准备牛市,有几个普遍的教训:
Shiny new coins outperform and old coins underperform :
闪亮的新币表现优于旧币,而旧币表现不佳
A notable trend of the 2021 bull run was the underperformance of old coins, with almost no top performer of the 2018 cycle doing well.
2021 年牛市的一个显著趋势是旧币的表现下滑,几乎没有2018 年周期中任何一种表现良好的热门币种。
Ripple (XRP), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), NEO, XEM, IOTA, EOS, Dash, Monero (XMR), Zcash (ZEC) and Tron (TRX) never reached their previous all-time high prices again IN USD, and they have basically been down only versus BTC since 2018.
瑞波币(XRP)、恒星币(XLM)、比特币现金(BCH)、小蚁币(NEO)、新经币(XEM)、物联网(IOTA)、柚子币(EOS)、达世币(Dash)、门罗币(XMR)、零币(ZEC)和波场币(TRX)自2018年以来从未再次达到它们的历史最高价(以美元计),并且它们基本上只与比特币相比下跌。
Except of course BTC and ETH, the only good performances from major old coins were from BNB, Cardano (ADA), Ethereum Classic (ETC) and of course DOGE.
除了BTC和ETH之外,主要的老币中表现良好的只有BNB、Cardano(ADA)、Ethereum Classic(ETC)和当然还有DOGE。
Here is a screenshot of the CoinMarketCap ranking in December 2017. I strongly recommend you to check these historical snapshots for a few dates, to help you realize how “rotational” the crypto market is.
这是2017年12月CoinMarketCap排名的截图。我强烈建议您查看一些日期的历史快照,以帮助您意识到加密货币市场是多么“轮动”。
Most coins underperform BTC before the bull run really starts
在牛市真正开始之前,大多数币种都表现不如比特币
When we're in the middle of a bear market and you think we're close to the bottom, that is obviously the best time to buy BTC and ETH to hold until the next bull run.
当我们处于熊市,并且您认为我们接近底部时,这显然是买入比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH),并持有直到下一轮牛市的最佳时机。
But with the same logic, you may also be tempted to buy altcoins, since they are high-beta against BTC and should therefore outperform it. Even if this is true for some altcoins, it didn't exactly work out that way in the last bull run :
但是按照同样的逻辑,你可能也会被诱惑购买其他加密货币,因为它们对比比特币具有高贝塔值,所以应该表现更好。即使对于某些其他加密货币来说是真的,但在上一次牛市中并不完全如此。
The vast majority of altcoins underperformed bitcoin during its late 2020 run, right up until early 2021, when they suddenly started to take off.
绝大部分的山寨币在2020年晚期比特币的表现较差,一直到2021年初才突然开始起飞。
The good news is that you were not really missing out on outperformance by staying allocated to BTC and ETH until the bull run began.
好消息是,直到牛市开始,你一直持有比特币和以太坊,没有错过超额收益。
If history had to repeat itself, this is what we should expect : BTC (with ETH?) should have a period where it takes off on its own, and altcoins lag behind (BTC dominance goes up), then suddenly the rotation kicks in, and that's when altcoins start going crazy.
如果历史要重演,我们应该期待以下情况:比特币(以太坊?)应该会有一个独立上涨的阶段,而其他加密货币则会落后(比特币的主导地位上升),然后突然轮动开始,这时候其他加密货币开始疯狂上涨。
But I don’t think that this is exactly what happened, or will happen : what we have seen during the last few months is that $BTC has been going up in the same time as BTC dominance, just like in 2020, but this time we have seen many coins outperform $BTC from June 2023 until now.
但我不认为这正是发生的事情,或将要发生的事情:在过去几个月中,我们看到的是$BTC在BTC主导地位上升的同时也在上升,就像2020年一样,但这一次我们看到从2023年6月至今许多币种表现超过了$BTC。
My interpretation is that :
我的解释是:
For a long-term investor, the bottom to buy on November 2022 was for $BTC (and $ETH… even if in hindsight, not touching ETH in 2023 was the best idea), while the time to buy (the right*) altcoins was around June 2023.
对于长期投资者来说,2022年11月买入$BTC(以及$ETH...即使事后看来,不触碰2023年的ETH是最好的选择),而买入(正确的)小币种的时间是在2023年6月左右。There are a lot of differences between the performances of the altcoins : $ETH underperformed $BTC in 2023, some (old) altcoins have been underperforming $BTC in the last few months too, while selected altcoins have outperformed the market by a large margin.
2023年,各种替代币的表现存在很大差异:$ETH在表现上不如$BTC,一些(旧的)替代币在过去几个月也表现不如$BTC,而一些特定的替代币则以较大幅度超越了市场。
Nevertheless, it is true that we have not seen the altcoins go completely crazy against $BTC, and I expect this to happen once $BTC crosses its past ATH ($69k), and we get to full-blown euphoria.
然而,事实是我们还没有看到山寨币完全对比特币疯狂,我预计一旦比特币突破过去的最高点(69,000美元),我们将进入全面狂热的状态。
Most of the gains are concentrated in a few months
大部分收益集中在几个月内
Most of the gains on these cryptos are concentrated over fairly short periods of time. Virtually all performance takes place over a few months, particularly on altcoins.
这些加密货币的大部分收益集中在相当短的时间内。几乎所有的表现都发生在几个月内,尤其是在其他加密货币上。
During the last bull run, for example, it was from January to May, then from August to November 2021. Periods during which the market is "up only" and in "easy mode", and during which your new adversaries are the retailers who have abandoned crypto for 3 years.
在最后一次牛市中,例如从2021年1月到5月,然后从8月到11月。这些时期,市场只会上涨,并且处于“易模式”,而你的新对手是在过去三年里放弃了加密货币的零售商。
These are the key weeks and moments when you need to be 100% committed to the market. There's a famous GCR tweet that sums up what you need to do during these periods:
这些是你需要百分之百投入市场的关键周和时刻。有一条著名的GCR推文总结了你在这些时期需要做的事情。
Here are a few to make you realize how quick and concentrated these pumps are :
这里有几个例子让你意识到这些泵的速度和浓度有多快:
$CHZ : 30x in one month in February-March 2021
$CHZ:2021年2月至3月期间一个月内增长了30倍$BNB : 8x in 20 days in February 2021
$BNB:2021年2月20天内涨了8倍$DOT : 8x in 2 months in January-February 2021
$DOT:2021年1月至2月期间涨了8倍$SUSHI : 6x in one month in January 2021
2021年1月份,SUSHI在一个月内增长了6倍$AAVE : 6x in one month in January 2021
$AAVE:2021年1月份一个月内涨了6倍$HOT : 35x in 2 months on February-March 2021
$HOT:2021年2月至3月期间涨幅为35倍$JOE : 60x in 2 weeks in August 2021
$JOE:2021年8月的两周内增长了60倍
Don’t let bear market PTSD rob you of the insane gains offered by a glorious bull run and alt season
不要让熊市的创伤后应激障碍剥夺你在辉煌的牛市和备选币季节中所能获得的疯狂收益
If it is your first cycle, you are likely to get in too late, run your investment to insane valuations without taking profits, and then roundtripping many of your gains. But if you read this article, chances are that you were here during the last cycle, and you went through the bear market, which was particularly brutal in 2022. In a bear market, you have to fade every pump, and get ready to short each time some altcoin goes up because of whichever catalyst. You are rewarded for this behaviour. But this completely changes during a bull market : some pumps are going to go so much higher than you could have thought. And you must be ready to benefit from this.
如果这是你的第一个周期,你很可能会进场太晚,将你的投资推向疯狂的估值而不获利,然后在很多收益中来回交易。但如果你读到了这篇文章,很有可能你在上一个周期中就在这里,并经历了2022年特别残酷的熊市。在熊市中,你必须对每次炒作保持冷静,并准备好在某些另类币因为某种催化剂而上涨时进行做空。你会因此而获得回报。但在牛市中,情况完全不同:有些炒作会涨得比你想象的还要高。你必须准备好从中获益。
So here are a few examples of the insane multiples that some coins pulled up in 2021, in fairly short periods, and also the very large valuations that were reached :
以下是2021年某些币种在相对较短时间内出现的非常高的倍数,以及所达到的非常高的估值的几个示例:
$DOGE went up close to 10x in a day in January 2021 while it was already a billion-dollar coin
在2021年1月份,$DOGE在一天内涨了近10倍,而它本来已经是一个价值十亿美元的币种$THETA market cap (MC) went from $1bn to $12bn in 3 months
$THETA市值(MC)在3个月内从10亿美元增长到120亿美元$RUNE MC went from $200M to almost $5bn in 5 months
$RUNE MC在5个月内从2亿美元增长到近50亿美元$FIL reached at some point an FDV close to $400bn
$FIL在某个时刻达到了接近4000亿美元的FDV$ICP launched at a $250bn FDV
$ICP在2500亿美元的FDV上推出$AXS MC went from $200M to $10bn in 5 months. Its FDV was $43bn at the top.
AXS MC在5个月内从2亿美元增长到100亿美元。其峰值时的FDV为430亿美元。$GALA MC reached $5.4bn at its top, while it was a $5M market cap project at the beginning of the year 2021.
GALA MC在其巅峰时达到54亿美元,而在2021年初,它是一个市值500万美元的项目。$TEL MC went from $10M to $3bn (300x) in 5 months
$TEL MC在5个月内从1千万美元增长到30亿美元(增长了300倍)
The main themes of the 2021 cycle, with the best gains :
2021年周期的主要主题,获得最佳收益:
DeFi 1.0 : 去中心化金融1.0
DeFi was the new thing in crypto in 2020, it delivered new use cases and was a zero-to-one kind of novelty. The summer of 2020 was focused on DeFi, which is why it was called “DeFi summer”, and we could characterize it as the beginning or the bull-run (or the pre-beginning…).
DeFi在2020年的加密货币领域是新事物,它带来了新的应用场景,是一种从零到一的新奇之处。2020年的夏天聚焦于DeFi,因此被称为“DeFi夏季”,我们可以将其描述为开始或牛市的开始(或者是前奏...)。
Add a ponzinomics aspect to tho whole thing and you have a recipe for great gains. The two biggest winners of DeFi with strong fundamentals were $AAVE and $SNX. From bottom to top, the gains of these were between 500x and 1000x. We can also cite $SUSHI that did a 30x between November 2020 and March 2021.
将整个事情加入Ponzinomics方面,你就有了获取巨大收益的秘诀。在基本面强劲的DeFi中,最大的两个赢家是$AAVE和$SNX。从低点到高点,这些币的收益率在500倍到1000倍之间。我们还可以引用$SUSHI,在2020年11月到2021年3月间实现了30倍的收益。
Alt L1s
The L1 trade is the most permanent trade in crypto, and it was one of the most rewarding trade in the last cycle : the main winners of this trade have been $SOL, $LUNA, $AVAX (the Solunavax trifecta), but also $FTM, $ADA, $BNB, $EGLD.
L1交易是加密货币中最持久的交易之一,也是上一个周期中最有回报的交易之一:这个交易的主要赢家是$SOL、$LUNA、$AVAX(Solunavax三位一体),还有$FTM、$ADA、$BNB、$EGLD。
Alt L1s are traded by the market with a very high premium, which means that on average, their value (market cap or FDV) is higher than other categories, like apps for example. Once you know this, you know that you have to be exposed to this narrative. And it quickly became very clear that it was one of the main themes of the 2021 bull run, as some of them have been top-performers almost from the beginning to basically the Terra-Luna crash in May 2022.
Alt L1s在市场上以非常高的溢价交易,这意味着它们的价值(市值或FDV)平均高于其他类别,比如应用程序。一旦你知道这一点,你就知道你必须接受这个叙事。很快就变得非常清楚,这是2021年牛市的主要主题之一,因为其中一些从一开始就成为表现最好的资产,直到2022年5月的Terra-Luna崩盘。
The lesson here is : once you understand what is the main theme of the cycle (L1s), you just submit. And the second one is : the alt L1 trade never dies. It was a dominant theme in 2021, but it was already the case in 2017, and is once again the case in 2023-2024.
这里的教训是:一旦你理解了周期的主题(L1s),你只需提交。第二个教训是:备选的L1交易永不消失。它在2021年是主导主题,但在2017年已经是如此,并且在2023-2024年再次如此。
The alt L1 “ecosystem” playbook
L1 "生态系统"策略手册
In crypto, whenever a coin pumps, traders are looking for the tokens that are related to the pumping coin or that should logically follow. This is why, when an alt L1 coin pumps, people start to look for all the tokens that are in this alt L1 “ecosystem”, because the market caps are smaller, so they are expected to pump harder, and act as “beta” to the L1 coin.
在加密货币领域,每当一种币涨价时,交易者都会寻找与涨价币相关或逻辑上应该跟随的代币。这就是为什么当一种L1替代币涨价时,人们开始寻找所有属于这个L1替代币“生态系统”的代币,因为市值较小,所以预计它们会涨得更猛,并充当L1替代币的“贝塔”。
Usually, the main ecosystem coin is simply the dominant DEX of the network, and this is where some insane gains have been during the last cycle :
通常情况下,主要的生态系统币就是网络中占主导地位的去中心化交易所(DEX),在上一个周期中,这就是一些疯狂的收益所在
For example, the BSC had its season during the first 2 months of 2021, so $BNB started its huge run up from $40 to $700 at the top, and $CAKE, which was the main DEX on BSC, basically went up 50x in a month. For some traders, $CAKE was their best trade of the whole 2021 bull run.
例如,BSC在2021年的前两个月进行了季度比赛,所以$BNB从$40飙升到了最高点的$700,而作为BSC上主要的去中心化交易所,$CAKE在一个月内基本上增长了50倍。对于一些交易者来说,$CAKE是他们在整个2021年牛市中最成功的交易。A second example is in the Avalanche ecosystem : like most coins, $AVAX experienced a strong start in 2021, but dumped severely in May (-70%), and then was one of the strongest coins to recover in August 2021. Naturally, people started to look for beta coins, and the Avalanche DEX coin $JOE went up 50x in two weeks… another kingmaker trade. Pangolin ($PNG) was the other main DEX on Avalanche, but its price has “only” been multiplied by 4 in the same time.
第二个例子是在Avalanche生态系统中:像大多数币种一样,$AVAX在2021年有了一个强劲的开局,但在5月份大幅下跌(-70%),然后在2021年8月成为最强劲的币种之一。自然而然,人们开始寻找beta币种,而Avalanche DEX币种$JOE在两周内上涨了50倍...又一个造就王者的交易。Pangolin($PNG)是Avalanche上的另一个主要DEX,但在同一时间内,它的价格“只”增加了4倍。
Besides DEX, you can also think about memecoins, money markets, perp DEX, CDP (over-collateralized stablecoins), launchpads, when you are looking for higher beta coins in an ecosystem. I think that now in 2024, people have been more attracted to the “main memecoin on X chain” than the “main dex on X chain”.
除了DEX交易所外,当你在寻找生态系统中更高beta的加密货币时,还可以考虑memecoins、货币市场、永续合约交易所、超额抵押稳定币的CDP、启动平台等。我认为,如今在2024年,人们对“某条链上的主要memecoin”比对“某条链上的主要dex交易所”更感兴趣。
Metaverse 元宇宙
On October 28, 2021, Facebook announced its rebranding to Meta, and its new company’s focus on “building the metaverse”. This immediately sparked an extreme wave of speculation in the crypto market : the metaverse mania was beginning.
2021年10月28日,Facebook宣布重新品牌为Meta,并将新公司的重点放在“构建元宇宙”上。这立即引发了加密市场上的极度猜测:元宇宙狂热开始了。
3 coins were the leaders of this narrative : $SAND, $MANA, and $GALA. All of them went close to 10X in a month, and the only thing you had to do was to buy them once Meta made its announcement, even if they “already pumped” +20% on the news.
这个故事的领导者是三种代币:$SAND、$MANA和$GALA。它们在一个月内都接近10倍增长,你只需要在Meta宣布后购买它们,即使它们在消息公布后已经上涨了20%。
The market was close to its peak euphoria, and a major tradfi / GAFAM / real world news hit with this Meta announcement, so it was a recipe for a very strong narrative, that lasted around a month.
市场接近顶峰的狂热状态,一则重大的传统金融/ GAFAM(谷歌、亚马逊、Facebook、苹果和微软)/现实世界的新闻与Meta的公告同时出现,因此形成了一个非常强烈的叙事,持续了大约一个月。
What’s more, metaverse is very related to gaming, and one “major” crypto game, $AXS, went completely crazy during the summer of 2021, which was another strong catalyst for a gaming + metaverse pump, because then people started to look for “the next Axie Infinity”.
此外,元宇宙与游戏密切相关,而在2021年夏季,一款“重要”的加密游戏$AXS彻底疯狂,这成为了游戏+元宇宙热潮的又一个强大推动因素,因为人们开始寻找“下一个Axie Infinity”。
The lesson here is : be aware of the tech and real-world trends out of crypto, because in a risk-on environment, and if a tech trend has some relation to crypto, it will definitely become a thing in crypto too, as we saw with this metaverse and gaming mania.
这里的教训是:要注意加密货币之外的科技和现实世界的趋势,因为在风险偏好的环境中,如果某种科技趋势与加密货币有关,它肯定也会在加密货币领域成为一个热门话题,就像我们在元宇宙和游戏狂热中所看到的那样。
The narrative in 2024 that looks the most like this metaverse narrative in 2021 is AI : the ChatGPT launch did not happen at a time when the market was in a bull run and overall the AI narrative is less concentrated in terms of time, so there has not been one month of full-blown AI euphoria (contrary to the metaverse mania) but : AI coins performed very well during the January-February 2023 echo bubble (and the ChatGPT craze), which was the most risk-on environment of the year until October, and then AI coins performed well in October / November 2023 again, and then once again now in February 2024.
2024年的叙述最接近2021年的元宇宙叙述的是人工智能:ChatGPT的推出并不是在市场上涨的时候发生的,整体上人工智能的叙述时间上没有那么集中,所以没有一个月充满了人工智能的狂热(与元宇宙的狂热相反),但是:人工智能币在2023年1月至2月的回响泡沫中表现非常出色(以及ChatGPT的疯狂),那是整年中最冒险的环境,直到10月,然后人工智能币在2023年10月/11月再次表现良好,现在又在2024年2月再次表现良好。
I think many AI coins are mostly vaporware, but I don’t want to fade a narrative that is so strong in the tech world. Some of the most insane gains of this cycle will come from AI x crypto.
我认为许多人工智能币大多是虚无主义,但我不想淡化在科技界如此强大的叙述。本轮中最疯狂的收益将来自人工智能与加密货币的结合。
Memecoins 蚂蚁币
Memecoins have been some of the best-performers of the last cycle. $DOGE started 2021 at a $600M market cap. In the 5 months that followed, greatly helped by Elon Musk who started to shill it hard until its SNL top, $DOGE 150X’d in price, and reached a gigantic $90bn market cap.
Memecoins在上一个周期中表现出色。$DOGE在2021年初的市值为6亿美元。在接下来的5个月里,得益于埃隆·马斯克的大力推动,直到SNL节目的高峰,$DOGE的价格增长了150倍,达到了巨大的900亿美元市值。
A few months later, a great rotation happened and $SHIB, another doge-themed memecoin similar to $DOGE, reached a $40bn market cap, while its value at the beginning of 2021 was less than $5M.
几个月后,发生了一次巨大的轮动,$SHIB,另一种类似于$DOGE的以狗为主题的模因币,市值达到了400亿美元,而其在2021年初的价值不到500万美元。
A lot of others memecoins reached crazy valuations : $SAFEMOON ($17bn at its top), $ELON (more than $1bn), $AKITA ($1.5bn), $FLOKI ($3bn).
许多其他的memecoin达到了疯狂的估值:$SAFEMOON(最高达170亿美元),$ELON(超过10亿美元),$AKITA(15亿美元),$FLOKI(30亿美元)。
Memecoins are definitely here to stay, and it is probably a few memecoins that will be the top-performers of the new cycle. What mostly drives price in crypto is not fundamentals but narratives and speculation, and memecoins are simply coins that take this to the extreme by being transparent about the fact that they are useless. There is no ceiling in the potential capitalization of a thing that cannot be rationally valued.
莫名其妙的币肯定会留下来,而且可能有几种莫名其妙的币会成为新一轮中表现最好的币种。在加密货币市场中,推动价格的主要不是基本面,而是叙事和投机,而莫名其妙的币则通过公开它们毫无用处的事实将这一点推向了极致。对于一个无法理性估值的事物来说,其潜在市值没有上限。
NFTs 非同质化代币(NFTs)
NFTs have been a completely new crypto category and narrative (technically, it was not new, but it was for the market) of the 2021 bull run, and one of the places where the most insane gains have been made.
NFT(非同质化代币)是2021年牛市中的一个全新的加密货币类别和叙事(从技术上讲,它并不是新的,但对市场来说是新的),也是获利最疯狂的领域之一。
When we say “NFTs”, we are mainly referring to profil picture collections, and the first (and OG) one to go crazy has been CryptoPunks, with a floor price that jumped from 5 ETH in January 2021 to 20 ETH in March 2021, and then pumped again during the summer to 100 ETH ! One year before, during the 2020 summer, the floor price was only 1 ETH.
当我们说“NFTs”时,主要指的是头像收藏,而第一个(也是最早的)疯狂的是CryptoPunks,其底价从2021年1月的5 ETH跃升至2021年3月的20 ETH,然后在夏季再次飙升至100 ETH!而一年前,在2020年夏季,底价仅为1 ETH。
A large number of NFT PFP collections have been launched, the most successful one behind CryptoPunks has obviously been Bored Apes, but we can also cite Pudgy Penguins, Art Blocks (not a PFP collection), Doodles, Cool Cats, etc.
大量的NFT PFP收藏品已经推出,除了CryptoPunks之外,最成功的是Bored Apes,但我们还可以提到Pudgy Penguins、Art Blocks(不是PFP收藏品)、Doodles、Cool Cats等。
Thoughts about cycles : how to play rotations to maximize profits ?
周期思考:如何运用轮转以最大化利润?
Crypto trading is a game of rotations from narratives to narratives, and while it is close to impossible to nail all the short-term rotations, there are a few lessons that we can keep in mind. Some narratives remain strong during the whole bull run, for example the alt L1 trade never stopped (especially SOLUNAVAX), but most trends last around 1 month, so that is a first thing to know. The meat of a pump usually happens during a few weeks to one month, after that there is a fatigue and the attention of the market switches to something else. Of course this is a very rough pattern, and some coins manage to outperform during several consecutive months, but usually, if people have been talking a lot about something for a month straight (think about metaverse in November 2021), be aware that the trend could be exhausted.
加密货币交易是一个从一个叙事到另一个叙事的轮换游戏,虽然几乎不可能抓住所有短期轮换,但我们可以记住一些教训。有些叙事在整个牛市中始终强势,例如L1交易从未停止(尤其是SOLUNAVAX),但大多数趋势持续约1个月,这是第一点需要知道的。一次泡沫的高潮通常发生在几周到一个月之内,之后市场的关注会转移到其他事物上。当然,这只是一个非常粗略的模式,有些币种在连续几个月内表现出色,但通常,如果人们连续一个月都在大谈某个事物(想想2021年11月的元宇宙),请注意趋势可能已经耗尽。As we go through a bull run, people tend to crank up the risk. This means that the main narratives at the beginning of a bull run might have some strong fundamentals, but as time goes on, traders will be looking for more and more risky things, with higher and higher yields, and things that make less and less sense.
随着我们进入繁荣期,人们倾向于增加风险。这意味着在繁荣期开始时的主要说法可能有一些强大的基本面,但随着时间的推移,交易者将会寻找越来越多带有更高收益率的高风险项目,以及越来越没有意义的东西。For example in 2020-2021, $LINK (strong fundamentals) was a best performer of the bear market, then we had DeFi summer which introduced a new paradigm that was DeFi (strong fundamentals), then we had the BTC run (strong fundamentals, obviously), and then during the first part of the bull run, some legit DeFi coins were among the top performers ($AAVE, $SNX, $RUNE, $UNI).
例如在2020-2021年,$LINK(基本面强劲)是熊市中表现最好的资产,然后我们迎来了DeFi夏季,引入了一个新的范式,即DeFi(基本面强劲),然后我们有了BTC的上涨(基本面强劲,显而易见),然后在牛市的第一阶段,一些合法的DeFi代币成为了表现最好的资产($AAVE,$SNX,$RUNE,$UNI)。In the following months, it got more and more degen, with vaporware overvalued at a few billions FDV (metaverse, gaming), with ultra-high yield pure ponzinomics seen as the future of France (Olympus DAO $OHM), with forks and forks and forks (Olympus forks, Wonderland $TIME). At this point, when all of these “top signals” appear in the market, then you might be looking to exit, or at least de-risk substantially. Seeing tons of crypto games that launched (via launchpads for example) at absurd valuations (>$1bn) while they had nothing to offer besides promises was a good sign that we were nearing the top. Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt, because the crypto market is constantly going degen (DeFi summer was already ponzinomics, new memecoins are permanently being launched and traded, etc), and you can find “top signals” more or less every time in crypto if you are looking for them.
在接下来的几个月里,情况变得越来越糟糕,虚拟产品被高估到几十亿FDV(元宇宙、游戏),超高收益的纯庞氏经济被视为法国的未来(Olympus DAO $OHM),出现了越来越多的分叉(Olympus分叉,Wonderland $TIME)。在这一点上,当市场上出现所有这些“顶部信号”时,你可能会考虑退出,或者至少大幅降低风险。看到大量加密游戏以荒谬的估值(>10亿美元)推出(例如通过发行平台),而除了承诺之外没有任何实质性的东西,这是一个好迹象,表明我们接近顶部。当然,要带着一颗谨慎的心来看待这一切,因为加密市场一直在不断恶化(DeFi夏季已经是庞氏经济,新的模因币不断被推出和交易等),如果你在寻找的话,你几乎每次都能找到“顶部信号”。If a coin has been a best-performer of the bear market, it is unlikely to outperform during the whole bull cycle. At least, this has been true in 2021, but it was a singular bull run insofar as it was clearly divided into 2 parts (before May 2021, and then after July 2021). A lot of coins that have been very strong during the bear market topped around May 2021 or even before : $AAVE $SNX $RUNE $THETA $KSM $SUSHI. $LINK, a monster during 2019 and 2020, even topped in BTC terms during DeFi summer.
如果一枚硬币在熊市中表现最佳,那么在整个牛市周期中它很可能无法超越。至少在2021年是如此,但这是一个独特的牛市,因为它明显分为两个部分(2021年5月之前和2021年7月之后)。在熊市中表现非常强劲的许多硬币在2021年5月甚至更早时达到了顶峰:$AAVE $SNX $RUNE $THETA $KSM $SUSHI。$LINK在2019年和2020年表现出色,甚至在DeFi夏季以比特币计价达到了顶峰。During the second part of the bull run, look for new narratives (metaverse, NFTs, in 2021) and be ready to embrace the degen spirit with things that make less and less sense, introduce new types of ponzinomics and have a cultish aspect (more about this in the next section).
在牛市的第二阶段,寻找新的叙事(元宇宙、非同质化代币在2021年),准备好接纳越来越没有意义的事物,引入新型庞氏经济学,并具有狂热的特点(下一节将更详细介绍)。
Promising signs for a great pump… and then a great dump
有一个伟大的泵的迹象...然后是一个伟大的倾倒
Crypto tends to exacerbate a lot of the human psychological biases and emotions, which is often a catalyst for more extreme pumps, and also more extreme dumps. Two such examples of catalysts seem particularly important to identify :
加密货币往往会加剧许多人类心理偏见和情绪,这往往是更极端的涨幅和更极端的跌幅的催化剂。其中两个催化剂的例子似乎特别重要:
“Main characters” and the worshipping of some crypto figures
"主要角色"和对一些加密货币人物的崇拜
The crypto market likes to have “main characters” that are often worshipped and will become a strong component that justifies the pump of some cryptos. You can easily find one central figure behind any of the really major pumps of 2021 :
加密市场喜欢有被崇拜的“主角”,他们成为支撑某些加密货币暴涨的重要因素。你可以很容易地找到2021年真正大规模暴涨背后的一个核心人物。
SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) was seen as a genius, which is a reason for the incredible performance of $SOL (Sam was a $SOL bull and proponent), but also $FTT.
SBF(Sam Bankman-Fried)被视为天才,这是$SOL(Sam是$SOL的支持者和倡导者)和$FTT表现出色的原因之一。CZ was the face and leader of Binance, he was considered as someone you should not bet against, and this is a part of the success of $BNB.
CZ是币安的代表和领导者,他被认为是一个不应该押注对手的人,这是$BNB成功的一部分。Su Zhu was seen as god-like investor/trader that manages billions and he was an Avalanche bull, which was also a catalyst for the performance of $AVAX.
苏珠被视为管理数十亿美元的神一般的投资者/交易员,并且他是Avalanche($AVAX)的多头支持者,这也成为了其表现的催化剂。Elon Musk was obviously one of the main reason for the $DOGE pump to almost $100bn market cap.
埃隆·马斯克显然是$DOGE暴涨至近1000亿美元市值的主要原因之一。Do Kwon was the cocky founder of Terra Luna, and his “assertiveness” (to say the least) probably played a role in the (initial) success of $LUNA.
德·昆(Do Kwon)是Terra Luna的自负创始人,他的“自信”(至少可以这么说)可能在$LUNA的(最初)成功中起了一定作用。Richard Heart, the colorful figure behind $HEX, was worshipped by the Hexicans
Richard Heart,$HEX背后的多彩人物,受到Hexicans的崇拜Charles Hoskinson, the father of Cardano, was probably one the main reasons for the huge market cap that $ADA reached
查尔斯·霍金森是卡尔达诺的创始人,可能是$ADA达到巨大市值的主要原因之一Andre Cronje, a central figure of Fantom ($FTM), and that co-founded a few other projects, was considered as a gigabrain for some people.
安德烈·克朗耶,Fantom($FTM)的核心人物之一,也是其他几个项目的联合创始人,被一些人认为是一个超级聪明的人。Daniele Sestagalli lead 3 projects that all had crazy pumps : $TIME, $SPELL, and $ICE.
Daniele Sestagalli领导的3个项目都有疯狂的涨势: $TIME、$SPELL和$ICE。
Two types of main characters stand out : either the “gigabrain” profile, either the “leader of a community/worshipped by a community” profile. Keep it in mind for the next bull run.
两种主要角色类型突出:要么是“超级聪明”的形象,要么是“社区领袖/受社区崇拜”的形象。记住这一点,以备下一次牛市。
Cult x Ponzi = Pump-and-dump on the horizon
邪教 x 庞氏骗局 = 即将发生的炒作和倾销
The second and third catalysts are : cultish aspects and “ponzi-like” tokenomics. The funny thing is that these often go together, and they even often come with the “main character” catalyst. Ponzinomics usually mean very high yield that ends up being unsustainable in one form or another. Having a “cultish aspect” is harder to explain but a few examples will illustrate this :
第二和第三个催化剂是:类教派的方面和"庞氏式"代币经济学。有趣的是,它们经常同时存在,甚至经常伴随着"主角"催化剂。庞氏经济学通常意味着非常高的收益,最终以一种形式或另一种形式变得不可持续。拥有"类教派的方面"很难解释,但几个例子可以说明这一点:
Luna is one of the best examples : Do Kwon was the charismatic leader, there was an obvious Ponzinomics component with the 20% Anchor yield on UST, and it was sort of a cult, because for example the community members were calling themselves “Lunatics” and you got a lot of pushback from them if you challenged the sustainability of the UST model.
Luna是最好的例子之一:Do Kwon是一个有魅力的领导者,UST上的20% Anchor收益明显有Ponzinomics的成分,而且它有点像一个邪教,因为例如社区成员自称为“Lunatics”,如果你质疑UST模型的可持续性,他们会给你很多反对意见。Olympus DAO ($OHM) : the main catalyst of this one was the ponzinomics, which was basically an insanely high staking yield, and you may remember that there was a leader of Olympus, it was a Twitter anon called “Zeus”.
奥林匹斯DAO($OHM):这个项目的主要推动力是波尼金融,基本上是一种极高的质押收益率,你可能还记得奥林匹斯的领导者是一个名叫“Zeus”的匿名推特用户。The projects of Daniele Sestagalli obviously had the “degen touch” : Wonderland was an Olympus fork with even higher yields, and Abracadabra had a “degenbox” product that enabled people to loop their UST and get a levered Anchor yield if I recall correctly. And the community that gathered around Daniele Sestagalli was called the “frog nation”…
Daniele Sestagalli的项目显然具有“degen touch”:Wonderland是一个更高收益的Olympus分叉项目,而Abracadabra则有一个“degenbox”产品,可以让人们循环他们的UST并获得杠杆Anchor收益,如果我没记错的话。而围绕Daniele Sestagalli聚集的社区被称为“青蛙国”。HEX : Richard Heart as a worshipped leader + ponzinomics (”lock $HEX for 10 years to increase your yield”) + Cult (community = the Hexicans).
HEX:Richard Heart作为一个受崇拜的领导者+庞氏经济学(“锁定$HEX十年以增加收益”)+邪教(社区= Hexicans)。
Conclusion 结论
I hope that this article can be useful for you ! Feel free to give me feedback in the comments, to ask questions if needed, and to add the lessons you've learned yourself from the 2021 bull run.
希望这篇文章对你有用!请随意在评论中给我反馈,如果需要的话提问,并添加你自己从2021年牛市中学到的教训。
Another great piece, so much to digest, awesome
另一件很棒的作品,有很多东西需要消化,太棒了
1回复由维克托
nice summary. Though I would suggest the 'old coin bad / new coin good' meta will change for two reasons:
不错的总结。尽管我认为“旧币不好/新币好”的元话会因为两个原因而改变:
1) many of the old coins (e.g. DYDX, MKR) now generate real revenue for holders. the challenge is separating the ones that can grow and distribute value vs the ones that are simply old coins (e.g. SUSHI)
许多旧币种(例如DYDX、MKR)现在为持有者产生真实收入。挑战在于区分那些能够增长和分配价值的币种与那些只是旧币种(例如SUSHI)。
2) many of the old coins are fully diluted, whereas the new coins are not. this is fine for short time frames, but holders will get rekt on STRK and TIA while old coins with no unlocks and fresh narratives outperform (see defi this week as an example)
许多旧币已经完全稀释,而新币则没有。对于短期来说这没问题,但持有者在STRK和TIA上将会遭受损失,而没有解锁和新的叙述的旧币表现更好(以本周的DeFi为例)。