Mike Douglass
University of Hawai'i at Mānoa
173 PUBLICATIONS 3,335 CITATIONS
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Intercity Competition and the Question of Economic Resilience: Globalization and Crisis in Asia 城際競爭與經濟復原力問題:全球化與亞洲危機
MICHAEL DOUGLASS
THE PACIFIC ASIA URBAN TRANSITION 太平洋地區的都市轉型
Policymakers in Asia will have to plan for megacities of a size and complexity never before seen in history. Ronald Skeldon (1998: 3) 亞洲的決策者將必須為歷史上從未見過的規模與複雜性的超大城市進行規劃。Ronald Skeldon (1998: 3)
Globalization-here concerned with the integration of circuits of finance, commerce, and production on a world scale-is recent, incomplete, and undergoing dynamic transformations in organizational structures and local impacts. Although industrial production began to globalize in the 1970s, very few countries in the world actually achieved “newly industrialized economy” status. The most well-known economic miracles in the developing world emerged in east and southeast Asia (Pacific Asia). Erstwhile successes in Latin America faltered in the late 1970s with only sporadic recovery since. Other would-be success stories in the Third World generally failed to get beyond the textile, garment, and shoe fabrication stage of industrialization (Athukorala 1989). By the early 1990s, the record showed that with only a few Pacific Asia countries becoming the principal sources of higher value-added manufacturing outside of the OECD, economic disparities among nations were continuing to widen (Pritchett 1996, Rao 1998). ^(1){ }^{1} 全球化--在此是指金融、商業和生產環節在世界範圍內的整合--是最近才出現的,也是不完整的,而且在組織結構和地方影響方面正經歷著動態的轉變。雖然工業生產在 1970 年代開始全球化,但世界上只有極少數國家真正達到「新工業化經濟」的地位。發展中世界最著名的經濟奇蹟出現在東亞和東南亞(太平洋亞洲)。拉丁美洲昔日的成功在 1970 年代末期搖搖欲墜,之後只有零星的復甦。第三世界其他的成功故事一般都無法超越紡織、成衣和製鞋的工業化階段 (Athukorala 1989)。到 1990 年代初,記錄顯示,只有少數太平洋亞洲國家成為 OECD 以外高附加值製造業的主要來源,而國家之間的經濟差距卻持續擴大 (Pritchett 1996, Rao 1998)。 ^(1){ }^{1}
The rise of Pacific Asia in the world economy is both a source of and ultimately dependent upon accelerated rates of urbanization, which have been among the highest in the world. From now to 2025 the expected annual growth rate of the urban population in Pacific Asia will be roughly four times that of the highest-income countries, resulting in a doubling of the number of city dwellers, while in several countries rural populations will begin to decline for the first time in history (UN 1994, 1997; Douglass 1999). During the next quarter of a century Pacific Asia is expected to add more than 700 million people to its cities, accounting for about 30 percent of the world’s urban population increases as well as 30 percent of the total world urban population in 2025, with China accounting for most of the increases. Cities in Southeast Asia, where the global factory has arrived later than in east Asia, are predicted to grow five times faster than OECD cities. These cities have been experiencing increases of several hundred 亞太地區在世界經濟中的崛起既是城市化加速的源頭,最終也取決於城市化加速,而城市化加速的速度一直是世界上最高的。從現在到 2025 年,亞太地區都市人口的預期年成長率將大約是收入最高國家的四倍,導致城市居民的人數增加一倍,而在幾個國家,農村人口將有史以來第一次開始下降(UN 1994, 1997; Douglass 1999)。在未來四分之一世紀中,預計亞太地區的城市人口將增加 7 億以上,約佔全球城市人口增加量的 30%,並在 2025 年佔全球城市人口總數的 30%,其中中國將佔增加人口的大部分。與東亞相比,東南亞的全球工廠來得較遲,預測東南亞城市的增長速度將是 OECD 城市的五倍。這些城市已經經歷了幾百人的增長。
thousand new residents every year, a large share of whom are locating in periurban areas beyond urban boundaries and thus have no municipal government to oversee urban management and planning issues. 每年有數以千計的新居民,其中很大一部分位於城市邊界以外的近郊區域,因此沒有市政府來監督城市管理和規劃問題。
The global unevenness of capitalist development is mirrored by highly uneven spatial patterns of growth within the economies that have been successful in creating accelerated export-oriented industrialization platforms. These have largely been driven by transnational enterprises and investment. In Pacific Asia this has fundamentally restructured the economic as well as social and political space in an astonishingly short period of less than three decades. Among the most prominent elements of the spatial restructuring accompanying globalization are (Douglass 1998, 1999): 資本主義發展的全球不均衡性,反映在成功創造加速出口導向工業化平台的經濟體內,增長的空間模式極不均衡。這主要是由跨國企業和投資所帶動的。在亞太地區,這在不到三十年的短時間內,從根本上重整了經濟、社會和政治空間。與全球化相伴而生的空間重組最突出的要素包括 (Douglass 1998, 1999):
spatial polarization in a few metropolitan centers; 幾個都會中心的空間兩極化;
formation of very large megaurban regions around these centers that are growing in excess of 10 million and as much as 80 million or more in population; 在這些中心周圍形成非常大的超大型區域,人口增長超過 1,000 萬,甚至高達 8,000 萬或更多;
government promotion of candidate world cities at the top of an emerging hierarchy of urban nodes in the Pacific Asia region; 在太平洋亞洲地區新興的城市節點層級架構中,政府在頂層推動候選世界城市;
emergence of a pan-Pacific Asia development corridor from northeast to southeast Asia; 從東北亞到東南亞的泛太亞發展走廊的出現;
slow rates of urbanization and economic growth in inland regions, including densely settled agricultural heartland regions away from metropolitan centers. 內陸地區的都市化和經濟成長速度緩慢,包括遠離都會中心、定居密集的農業中心地區。
The concerted global and national energy focused on megaurban regions and corridors has been a fundamental underlying dimension of the recent economic crisis as both a source and arena of impacts. As a source, the polarization of economic growth fostered stellar urban land price increases that fueled the circulation of global finance capital through Asian banks and into land development schemes. With major urban regions doubling in population every two decades or so, land price rises far outpaced per capita income growth to create seemingly endless opportunities to turn speculative land investments into high returns through ambitious development schemes. 全球與各國一致將精力集中在特大城市區域與走廊,這已經成為近期經濟危機的一個基本層面,既是危機的源頭,也是其影響的領域。從源頭來看,經濟成長的兩極化助長了城市土地價格的飆升,而這也助長了全球金融資本透過亞洲銀行和土地開發計畫的循環。由於主要都市地區的人口每二十年左右增加一倍,土地價格的成長速度遠遠超過人均收入的成長速度,因而創造出看似無窮無盡的機會,讓投機性的土地投資透過雄心勃勃的開發計畫轉化為高回報。
The rationale put forth for many of these schemes was the imperative of intercity competition for world-city status, a concept that emerged as a critical look at the urban condition in a select number of global centers but which quickly turned into a banner for national development in Asia (Friedmann 1986, Knox and Taylor 1995). “Waterfront fever,” “Manhattan skylines,” “cyber” cities, superexpress rail lines, world-hub airports, huge industrial estates and technoparks, large-scale international convention sites, elite business districts, and massive new town developments were but a few of the many types of megaprojects launched by global finance capital channeled through manipulated domestic finance systems and the pursuit of world-city status. 許多這些計畫所提出的理由,都是為了爭取世界城市地位而進行的城際競爭,這個概念是在批判性地檢視一些特定全球中心城市的都市狀態後出現的,但很快就成為亞洲國家發展的旗幟(Friedmann 1986, Knox and Taylor 1995)。"海濱熱潮」、「曼哈頓天際線」、「網路」城市、超高速鐵路、世界樞紐機場、大型工業區與科技園區、大型國際會議地點、菁英商業區,以及大規模的新市鎮開發計畫,只是全球金融資本透過受操控的國內金融體系,為追求世界城市地位而推出的眾多巨型計畫中的一小部分。
In most countries global urban pursuits resulted in a de facto absence of policy for most of the national territory. By the mid-1980s any pretense of trying to divert the growth of major urban centers to regions away from key metropolitan cores was effectively dropped from national development plans. Attitudes 在大多數國家,全球都市化的追求導致大部分國家領土的政策事實上缺失。到了 1980 年代中期,任何試圖將主要城市中心的成長轉移到主要都會核心以外地區的偽裝,實際上都已從國家發展計畫中剔除。態度
toward the “big city” switched from cautionary concern to outright advocacy of concentrating investment in them as a way to accelerate national economic growth. Even though rural revitalization continued to receive token mention, rural regions-which had been reduced to green revolution grain crop zones and contract farms for international agribusiness-and their rural towns continued to experience chronic population losses and aging farm populations accompanied by a parallel decline of local urban functions and transportation services. 對於 「大城市 」的看法,從警戒性的關心轉變為直接提倡將投資集中在大城市,以加速國家經濟成長。儘管鄉村振興仍被象徵式地提及,但已淪為綠色革命穀物作物區和國際農業綜合企業合約農場的農村地區及其鄉鎮,仍持續經歷長期人口流失與農民人口老化,並伴隨當地都市功能與交通服務的衰退。
Japan represents an extreme case in which rural areas have already been decimated by decades of polarization along the Pacific Belt. Approximately 80 percent of the national population lives in the urban belt stretching from Tokyo to Osaka. In a majority of rural areas, the farm population is over age sixty-five, schools are closing for lack of students, and transportation services have been reduced to a minimum. Despite earlier prognoses that a “U”-turn to rural areas or a " J "-turn to rural towns would occur, there is no evidence that this is happening. The idea of thriving rural economies with vibrant communities for all generations of people seems to have passed into history. 日本是一個極端的例子,農村地區已經因為太平洋地帶數十年來的兩極化而滅亡。約 80% 的全國人口居住在從東京到大阪的城市帶。在大多數的農村地區,農民的年齡都在 65 歲以上,學校因沒有學生而關閉,交通服務也縮減到最低限度。儘管早前有預言指出,農村地區會出現「U」型轉向,或農村城鎮會出現「J」型轉向,但沒有證據顯示這種情況正在發生。農村經濟蓬勃發展、社區生機勃勃、世代相傳的想法似乎已成為歷史。
Dramatically slowing population growth rates now becoming prevalent throughout the Pacific Asia region are amplifying the aging of rural populations already produced through rural-metropolitan migration. In the case of Korea, by 1990 areas with absolute population decline were accounting for 40 percent (up from 17 percent in 1980) of the national population and 61 percent (up from 32 percent in 1980) of the national territory (Kim 1996/97: 243). One of the most critical aspects of Korea’s rural depopulation is that it has been more rapid since 1980 rather than during the nation’s decade of accelerated industrialization in the 1970s. Thus, paradoxically, rural depopulation began reaching its highest levels even when industrial regions such as the southeast coast around Pusan were experiencing serious economic downturn as Korean corporations began moving low-wage assembly operations from these regions to locations in southeast Asia and other parts of the world. This has further stimulated growth of the greater Seoul metropolitan region, which now accounts for almost one half of the national population, as global management and service functions gravitate to it. 在整個太平洋亞洲地區,人口成長率大幅放緩的現象正在擴大已經因農村人口向大都市遷移而產生的農村人口老化現象。就韓國而言,到 1990 年,人口絕對減少的地區佔全國人口的 40%(1980 年為 17%),佔全國領土的 61%(1980 年為 32%)(Kim 1996/97:243)。韓國農村人口減少的其中一個最關鍵的方面是,自 1980 年以來,農村人口減少的速度比 1970 年代國家加速工業化的十年期間更快。因此,自相矛盾的是,韓國企業開始將低薪的組裝業務從這些地區遷往東南亞和世界其他地區,即使在工業地區(例如釜山周圍的東南沿海地區)經歷嚴重的經濟衰退時,農村人口流失也開始達到最高峰。這進一步刺激了大首爾都會區的成長,由於全球管理和服務功能都向大首爾都會區遷移,目前大首爾都會區的人口幾乎佔全國人口的一半。
In these growing metropolitan regions, the impacts of economic growth and population concentrations have produced great stress on all aspects of urban life and habitat. Environmental degradation, monumental traffic congestion, housing shortages, the growth of slums are among the daunting conditions summarized as threats to sustainable development and the attributes of unlivable cities (UNESCAP 1993). Megaprojects launched for “internationalization” have also led to the forced resettlement of tens of thousands of small enterprises and urban households from their communities in the city and periurban households from their villages and agricultural land (Douglass 1998). Yet, as the crisis revealed, the huge amounts of investment required by these projects also turned out to be far beyond local capacities to absorb and turn into profitable ventures, leading to economic collapse throughout the region in the late 1990s. 在這些成長中的都會區中,經濟成長與人口集中的影響對都市生活與棲息地的各個層面都造成了極大的壓力。環境惡化、交通嚴重壅塞、住屋短缺、貧民窟增加,這些令人生畏的狀況都是對永續發展的威脅,也是無法居住的城市的特徵 (UNESCAP 1993)。為了「國際化」而發起的大型計畫,也導致數以萬計的小型企業與都市住戶被迫遷離城市社區,近郊住戶則被迫遷離鄉村與農地(Douglass 1998)。然而,正如危機所揭示的,這些專案所需的巨額投資,結果也遠遠超出當地的吸收能力,無法轉變為有利可圖的事業,導致 1990 年代末期整個區域的經濟崩潰。
THE CRISES AND THEIR URBAN IMPACTS 危機及其對城市的影響
The Crises危機
The economic turmoil that swept through the open economies of east and southeast Asia from 1997 has been generally portrayed as one solely created in the nexus of the globalization of finance capital coupled with “crony-capitalism.” It is, however, a much more complex set of crises that collectively threaten both the economic future of societies and the livability of their cities: 自 1997 年起,席捲東亞與東南亞開放經濟體的經濟動盪,一般被形容為金融資本全球化與「裙帶資本主義」的結合。然而,這是一連串更為複雜的危機,共同威脅著社會的經濟未來及其城市的宜居性:
Environmental Crisis環境危機
Resulting from excessive concentration on economic growth over environmental management, this is now resulting in significant losses to urban productivity and personal health as well as the unwanted growth of what can only be called dysfunctional urban habitats that require working people to make exceptionally arduous commuting arrangements that, in some cases, are undermining family life and intergenerational continuity. ^(2){ }^{2} 由於過度專注於經濟成長而非環境管理,目前正造成都市生產力與個人健康的重大損失,以及只能稱為機能失調都市棲息地的意外成長,這些都市棲息地要求上班族做出異常艱辛的通勤安排,在某些情況下,還破壞了家庭生活與代際間的連續性。 ^(2){ }^{2}
From almost every perspective-air pollution, water quality, toxic wastes in water and land-a majority of cities are less livable today than a decade or two ago (Douglass and Ooi 1999). Severe water shortages and seasonal flooding have become more pronounced, and Pacific Asia has cities with the highest levels of air pollution in the world. Waterways do not support life; land is heavily polluted with toxic wastes; human waste seeps into drinking water supplies; acid rain is affecting plants and human health. For many urban residents, and especially the urban poor, the urban environment is life-threatening. Issues surrounding the idea of livable cities have become the rallying points for the emergence of environmental movements in Asia, and have thus become among the most politically salient topics of the day (Lee 1995; Ho 1997; Hsiao 1995; Hsiao and Liu 2000; Douglass, Ard-Am, and Kim 2000). The socially uneven burden of environmental degradation has raised the parallel issue of environmental justice. ^(3){ }^{3} 從幾乎所有的角度來看--空氣污染、水質、水中和土地中的有毒物質--大多數城市的宜居程度都不如十年或二十年前(Douglass and Ooi 1999)。嚴重的缺水問題和季節性洪水已變得更加明顯,而太平洋亞洲的城市空氣污染程度為全球最高。水道無法支持生命;土地受到有毒廢棄物的嚴重污染;人類廢棄物滲入飲用水供應;酸雨正在影響植物和人類健康。對於許多城市居民,尤其是城市貧民而言,城市環境威脅著他們的生命。圍繞宜居城市理念的議題已成為亞洲環保運動崛起的集結點,也因此成為當今最突出的政治議題(Lee 1995;Ho 1997;Hsiao 1995;Hsiao and Liu 2000;Douglass, Ard-Am, and Kim 2000)。環境惡化所造成的社會不均負擔,提出了環境正義的平行議題。 ^(3){ }^{3}
Health costs extend beyond personal well-being to include time lost from work. The average cost of all known pollution in Pacific Asia’s metropolitan regions is estimated to be close to 10 percent of urban GDP, with these regions now accounting for as much as half of the national GDP in most countries. The health and productivity costs of air pollution are estimated to amount to billions of dollars a year in the large Asian cities. With pollution levels increasing 10-20 percent per year in some energy, industry, and transport subsectors, the costs to productivity are expected to rise not only in the form of health costs and mortality, but also in rising resource costs due to deterioration of environmental quality (Brandon 1994). ^(4){ }^{4} 健康成本超越了個人福祉,還包括工作損失的時間。在太平洋亞洲的大都會地區,所有已知污染的平均成本估計接近城市 GDP 的 10%,目前這些地區的 GDP 佔大多數國家全國 GDP 的一半之多。在亞洲的大城市中,空氣污染造成的健康和生產力成本估計每年高達數十億美元。隨著一些能源、工業和運輸分部門的污染程度每年增加 10-20%,預計生產力成本不僅會以健康成本和死亡率的形式上升,而且還會因環境品質惡化而導致資源成本上升(Brandon 1994)。 ^(4){ }^{4}
The World Bank (1996) concludes that urban regions that cannot successfully sustain their environments may begin to be abandoned in favor of other “new” regions where environmental deterioration is not as pronounced. In this context, it should be noted that with China just beginning its period of accelerated 世界銀行(1996)的結論是,無法成功維持其環境的都市區域可能會開始被放棄,而轉往其他環境惡化不那麼明顯的「新」區域。在此背景下,我們應該注意到,隨著中國剛剛開始其加速發展期
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have no health or other welfare benefits. Some estimates show that 10-1510-15 million Asians are involved in global migration of all types (Tran 1998), with low-wage migrant workers in Pacific Asia totaling 2.6 million (Silverman 1996). In 1994 alone about one-half million people were reported to have moved from lower to higher income economies in Asia, with Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong each receiving 30,000-150,000. 沒有醫療或其他福利。一些估計顯示, 10-1510-15 有一百萬亞洲人參與全球各類型的移民(Tran 1998),其中太平洋亞洲的低薪移民工人總數達到 260 萬(Silverman 1996)。據報導,僅 1994 年就有約 50 萬人從亞洲較低收入的經濟體遷移至較高收入的經濟體,其中日本、韓國、台灣、新加坡和香港各接收了 30,000-150,000 人。
Financial Crisis金融危機
The roots of the financial crisis lie in policies to attract short-term rather than long-term capital through liberalization of banking, encouraging foreign borrowing and high debt-equity ratios. With currencies linked to the U.S. dollar to reduce risks and local interest rates high, investors were virtually guaranteed high returns and easy, quick withdrawal from host banks. This strategy allowed land developers and other local enterprises to rely heavily on bank credit. By international standards, firms in the region become extraordinarily highly leveraged in the 1990s. In Korea and Thailand, the average debt-equity ratios in 1996 were above 200 percent, and were only slightly lower in other Pacific Asia economies (Sachs 1999). This left little immunity to external shocks. 金融危機的根源在於透過銀行自由化、鼓勵外國借貸和高債務-股權比率來吸引短期而非長期資本的政策。由於貨幣與美元掛鈎以降低風險,且當地利率高企,投資者幾乎可保證獲得高回報,並可輕鬆、快速地從當地銀行提款。這種策略讓土地開發商和其他當地企業非常依賴銀行信貸。以國際標準來看,該地區的企業在 1990 年代的槓桿比率異常高。在韓國和泰國,1996 年的平均債務股本比率超過 200%,其他亞太經濟體的比率僅稍低(Sachs 1999)。這使得企業幾乎無法抵擋外來衝擊。
Previously, tight controls on external sources of bank finance had insulated weak local banking systems from external vulnerability to short-term foreign debt. This changed during the 1990s with the opening and deregulation of domestic banking without parallel improvements in supervision and regulatory oversight. Increases in foreign borrowing in the 1990s were dramatic and pushed financing through inadequately prepared local lending systems into projects with little chance of making economic returns, thus creating a financial house of cards over the urban landscape. By mid-1997 borrowers in the five most highly leveraged countries-Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand-had an estimated $274\$ 274 billion in outstanding international bank loans, with two-thirds of this amount in short-term deposits with a maturity of less than one year. 在此之前,對銀行外部資金來源的嚴格管制,使得弱小的當地銀行體系不容易受到短期外債的影響。1990 年代,隨著國內銀行業的開放和管制的放寬,這種情況發生了變化,但在監督和監管方面卻沒有同步改善。1990 年代的外國借貸大幅增加,並透過準備不足的當地借貸體系,將資金推向幾乎沒有機會賺取經濟報酬的專案,因此在城市面貌上造成了一場金融風暴。到 1997 年年中,五個槓桿率最高的國家 - 印尼、南韓、馬來西亞、菲律賓和泰國 - 的借款人估計有 $274\$ 274 十億美元的未償國際銀行貸款,其中三分之二是一年期以下的短期存款。
Impacts影響
When the international banks started to sniff trouble in 1996, with overvalued currencies, weakening exports, and overcapacity, these banks began to reduce their lending. After the devaluation of the Thai baht in mid-1997, they started to flee. When the IMF panicked-ostentatiously declaring that Asia needed drastic financial surgery such as immediate and widespread bank closures, astronomical interest rates, and drastic fiscal cuts-the investors panicked right alongside (Sachs 1999: 1). The Asian finance debacle became a catalyst setting off chain effects through the other crises already underway. In comparison, the finance crisis in the United States in the 1980s had a rather limited impact on the U.S. population-principally on those who had their money in savings and loan banks. The Asian finance crisis had an immediate and profound impact throughout the region: 1996 年,當國際銀行開始嗅到問題的蛛絲馬跡時,由於貨幣估值過高、出口疲弱以及產能過剩,這些銀行開始減少貸款。1997 年中泰銖貶值之後,這些銀行開始逃亡。當國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)驚慌失措地宣佈亞洲需要大規模的金融手術,例如立即大規模地關閉銀行、天文數字的利率以及大幅的財政削減時,投資者也隨之驚慌失措(Sachs 1999: 1)。亞洲金融危機成為催化劑,透過其他已發生的危機引發連鎖效應。相較之下,1980 年代美國的金融危機對美國人民的影響相當有限--主要是那些把錢存在儲蓄和貸款銀行的人。亞洲金融危機對整個亞洲地區產生了直接而深遠的影響:
comfortable and safe life, and individual cultural circumstance will increase, and infrastructures to match these needs will be more important. However, during the past decade, although large public works have been carried out continuously to help out an end to the economic recession that followed the bubble economy, local economies remain impoverished, and infrastructures in urban areas are getting obsolete. In fact, inefficient public works are carried out only to stimulate the economy temporarily. Today, from a global perspective, it is doubted that Japan is an attractive country in Asia for investors. The Economic Strategy Council of Japan (ESCJ), “Strategies for Reviving the Japanese Economy; Report to Prime Minister Obuchi,” 26 February 1999. 然而,在過去十年間,雖然大型公共工程持續進行,協助結束泡沫經濟之後的經濟衰退,但地方經濟仍然貧困,都市基礎建設日漸陳舊。然而,過去十年來,儘管大規模的公共工程不斷進行,以幫助結束泡沫經濟之後的經濟衰退,但地方經濟仍然貧困,城市地區的基礎建設日漸陳舊。事實上,低效率的公共工程只是為了暫時刺激經濟。今天,從全球的角度來看,日本在亞洲是否是一個對投資者有吸引力的國家,已受到質疑。日本經濟戰略會議 (ESCJ),「重振日本經濟的策略;給小淵首相的報告」,1999 年 2 月 26 日。
“Local competition for business expansions and new plants has grown fierce.” 「當地企業擴張和新建工廠的競爭日趨激烈」。
Upjohn study of state and local investment incentives offered in the United States in the 1990s (Bartik 1995). Upjohn 對 1990 年代美國各州及地方所提供的投資獎勵措施的研究 (Bartik 1995)。
Several of the Pacific Asia economies in crisis, including Japan, began to show signs of possible recovery by mid-1999. Optimism began to run high that the worst was over and that past growth rates could be reestablished to lift the Pacific Asia “geese” led by Japan to ever higher levels of per capita income. Without discounting the possibility of a long-term economic recovery, there are at least four major reasons why a return to the past formula of national and urban development is problematic. 1999 年年中,包括日本在內的幾個陷入危機的太平洋亞洲經濟體開始出現可能復甦的跡象。樂觀的情緒開始高漲,認為最壞的情況已經結束,過去的成長率可以重新建立,讓以日本為首的太平洋亞洲「鵝」的人均收入達到更高的水平。在不抹煞長期經濟復甦可能性的前提下,至少有四個主要原因解釋為何回復過去的國家與 城市發展模式是有問題的。
First, as the foregoing discussion indicates, the IMF package of reforms, namely, transparent banking, floating exchange rates, and the entire range of neoliberal policies to open economies further to globalization and foreign investment, will not address-and might even exacerbate-the other crises of shallow economic development, low economic resilience, environmental deterioration and its economic impacts, governance, or social justice issues. If, as expected, past patterns of development are reasserted, these crises will continue unless they are simultaneously and directly addressed. It is not clear, however, that foreign-investment-driven national development can be achieved while also adopting policies to improve the environment, create social safety nets, or any number of programs to make cities more livable and supportive of human welfare. 首先,正如前面的討論所顯示,國際貨幣基金組織的一籃子改革,也就是透明銀行、浮動匯率,以及進一步開放經濟給全球化和外國投資的一系列新自由主義政策,將無法解決,甚至可能會加劇其他的危機:經濟發展膚淺、經濟復原力低、環境惡化及其對經濟的影響、治理或社會正義問題。如果一如所料,過去的發展模式得以重現,除非同時直接解決這些危機,否則這些危機仍會持續。然而,我們並不清楚,外資驅動的國家發展是否能在同時採取政策改善環境、建立社會安全網,或採取任何計畫讓城市更適合居住、更支持人類福祉。
The second reason is that economic recovery will probably not reach levels of past growth. Should they achieve averages of OECD countries, expectations of economic growth rates of under 5 percent per year would be reasonable. Under such a scenario, and judging from the OECD experience, economic growth could no longer be expected to maintain high levels of employment, particularly if some countries, such as China, attract the lion’s share of foreign investment previously going to other Pacific Asian economies. ^(11){ }^{11} In such circumstances, chronic unemployment and income inequalities are likely to persist and require other forms of entitlements to attenuate. 第二個原因是經濟復甦可能無法達到過去的成長水平。如果達到經濟合作發展組織 (OECD) 國家的平均水準,每年 5% 以下的經濟成長率預期是合理的。在這種情況下,根據 OECD 的經驗,經濟增長將不再有望維持高就業水平,特別是如果一些國家(如中國)吸引了之前流向其他太平洋亞洲經濟體的大部分外商投資。 ^(11){ }^{11} 在這種情況下,長期失業和收入不平等很可能會持續下去,並需要其他形式的權益來減弱。
Third, even proglobalization institutions such as the World Bank (1999) and the IMF (1999) are predicting that the globalization of finance capital is creating heightened propensities for the type of finance crises that have already visited Mexico, Pacific Asia, Brazil, and, most recently, Russia. The World Bank 第三,甚至連世界銀行(1999)和國際貨幣基金組織(1999)等邁向全球化的機構也預測,金融資本的全球化正造成更高的金融危機傾向,這些危機已經襲擊了墨西哥、亞太地區、巴西,以及最近的俄羅斯。世界銀行
Figure 13.1. Total value of announced worldwide mergers and acquisitions, 1990-98 圖 13.1.1990-98 年宣布的全球併購總值
Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets: Securities Data company as reported in the New York Times, 8 December 1998 資料來源彭博金融市場:1998 年 12 月 8 日《紐約時報》報導的證券數據公司
(1999: 1) warns that “financial crises are on the rise in developing countries” and declares that the expected slowdown in global economic growth will “hurt people the most in countries that . . . depend on private capital flows to finance large current account deficits.” With reform in banking and government still partial and proceeding slowly in Pacific Asia, there is no guarantee that episodes of economic collapse and sudden loss of exchange entitlements for local populations will not occur again. Because such crises invariably lead to a shrinking of the public purse, the impacts can also be expected to be redoubled in terms of declining attention to other outstanding environmental, social, and economic problems. (1999: 1) 警告說「發展中國家的金融危機正在增加」,並聲明預期的全球經濟成長放緩將會「對那些......依賴私人資本流動來為巨額經常帳赤字提供資金的國家的人民造成最大的傷害」。由於亞太地區的銀行和政府改革仍屬局部且進展緩慢,因此無法保證經濟崩潰和當地人民突然失去兌換權利的事件不會再次發生。由於這類危機必然會導致公共財力的萎縮,預期其影響也會加倍,對其他尚未解決的環境、社會及經濟問題的關注也會減少。
4. Fourth, with regard to the appearance of new candidates for foreign investment, prospects for less rapid rates of economic growth stem from the trends showing a substantial heightening of international competition among cities, which is resulting in increasing subsidies to investors with less surety of long-term benefits. This is occurring as a result of increasing concentrations of control over investment into the hands of fewer and larger global enterprises, giving them extraordinary leverage power over local conditions for investment. With the increasing global reach of finance capital, the world is now witnessing an unprecedented level and pace of megamergers and acquisitions (M&A) among large-scale corporations. As shown in Figure 13.1, between 1994 and 1998 annual amounts expended on M&A activity worldwide increased almost five-fold to reach nearly $2.5\$ 2.5 trillion. As finance capital spins its own circuits of expansion, much of this activity is being driven by rising stock prices rewarding mergers and acquisitions even when new production or increased productivity is not the result. 第四,关于新的外国投资候选地的出现,经济增长速度放缓的前景源于城市之间的国际竞争大大加剧的趋势,这导致对投资者的补贴不断增加,而长期利益却不那么确定。這是由於投資控制權越來越集中在更少、更大的全球性企業手中,使它們對當地的投資條件具有非凡的影響力。隨著金融資本的全球覆蓋範圍日益擴大,大型企業之間的巨型併購(M&A)現正以前所未有的水平和速度在全球上演。如圖 13.1 所示,從 1994 年到 1998 年,全球每年用於併購活動的金額增加了近五倍,達到近 $2.5\$ 2.5 萬億美元。由於金融資本不斷擴張,即使新的生產或生產力沒有增加,股票價格的上升也會推動併購活動。
the communications and transportation networks facilitating globalization. In 1997, for example, a major jump occurred in the number of export processing zones and free trade zones, adding a substantial number to the 800 governmentsponsored zones already in place around the world (UNCTAD 1998c). ^(20){ }^{20} China alone has 124 such zones, and is adding several more (Asia Pulse 1999c). By the end of 1998, its 32 state-class development zones had approved the establishment of 13,454 foreign-funded enterprises with a total contractual foreign capital reaching US $51\$ 51 billion. 通訊與運輸網路促進全球化。例如,在 1997 年,出口加工區和自由貿易區的數量大幅增加,在全世界已有的 800 個政府贊助的加工區中又增加了一大批(UNCTAD 1998c)。 ^(20){ }^{20} 僅中國就有 124 個這樣的區域,而且還在不斷增加(Asia Pulse 1999c)。截至 1998 年底,中國的 32 個國家級開發區已批准設立了 13,454 家外商投資企業,合同外資總額達到 $51\$ 51 億美元。
In engaging in this intercity competition for global investment, the Korean government announced in 1998 its intentions to establish four customs-free zones at key ports (Inchon, Kwangyang Bay, and Pusan) and airports (Kimpo in Seoul), the first in that country, which are intended to become trade and distribution hubs for northeast Asia (Cha 1998). All of the exemptions typical of such zones will apply. 韓國政府在 1998 年宣佈打算在主要港口 (仁川、光陽灣和釜山) 和機場 (首爾的金浦) 建立四個免關稅區,這是韓國的第一個免關稅區,目的是成為東北亞的貿易和集散中心 (Cha 1998)。這類區域的所有典型豁免都將適用。
Similar initiatives are being pursued in countries throughout the region, with the result that a strong proinvestment public policy is now a given factor in attracting FDI throughout the world. As noted above, over the past fifteen years, the overwhelming majority of governments have introduced measures to liberalize substantially their foreign investment regulations and have in this way opened the door for TNCs to an increasing degree. This has meant that the “old” incentives for attracting FDI-tax holidays and other subsidies directly to investors, trade liberalization, government control of labor organizations-are so widely available that, while still minimum requirements, they are insufficient by themselves to gain the more sought after levels of economic activity above the assembly line. 本区域各国也在采取类似的主动行动,结果,强有力的有利于投资的公共政策现在已成为全世界吸引外国直接投资的一个既定因素。如上文所述,在過去十五年間,絕大多數國家的政府已採取措施,大幅放寬外商投資法規,為跨國公司大開方便之門。这意味着,吸引外国直接投资的 「旧 」激励措施----直接向投资者提供的免税期和其他补贴、贸易自由化、政府对劳工组织的控制----已经非常普遍,尽管仍然是最低要求,但这些措施本身不足以获得流水线以上更受欢迎的经济活动水平。
Governments are thus directing much of their attention and resources to creating new assets and imaginative schemes to give them an edge over other cities and to move upward in a perceived global hierarchy of cities. This has kept paramount the sense among governments that public investments to respond to global competition have overriding priority. While successful in some locales at particular moments, in others, such as Osaka, local governments have been driven to near-bankruptcy by their unsuccessful investments of public money in huge megaprojects and spectacular global events aimed at winning global economic prominence. ^(21){ }^{21} 因此,各國政府將大部分的注意力和資源用於創造新的資產和富有想像力的計劃,使其優於其他城市,並在感知的全球城市層級中向上攀升。這使得各國政府始終認為,為了應對全球競爭而進行的公共投資具有壓倒性的優先地位。儘管有些地方在特定時刻取得成功,但在其他地方,例如大阪,地方政府卻因未成功將公共資金投資於龐大的大型計畫,以及旨在贏得全球經濟地位的壯觀全球活動,而瀕臨破產。 ^(21){ }^{21}
In sum, spatial changes taking place in economies in crisis reveal important considerations about globalization. As core regions experience the most pronounced impacts, their economic troubles coupled with low levels of economic performance in other subnational cities and regions reveal a general lack of national economic resilience. Even though many economies are now apparently showing signs that they are improving, the future is still uncertain as effects of the crisis and new crises reverberate through other quarters of the world. Achieving economic resilience through local capacity building to resolve crises as they appear, rather than simply intensifying competition to attract global capital, needs to be given greater policy attention. As city-regions become the home of greater 總而言之,經濟危機中的空間變化揭示了全球化的重要考量。由於核心區域受到最明顯的衝擊,其經濟問題加上其他次國家級城市與區域的低經濟表現,顯示出國家經濟普遍缺乏復原能力。儘管現在許多經濟體顯然已經出現改善的跡象,但由於危機的影響和新的危機會在世界其他地區迴盪,因此未來仍存在不確定性。通過地方能力建設實現經濟復原力,以解決出現的危機,而非僅僅是為了吸引全球資本而激化競爭,需要得到更多的政策關注。隨著城市區域成為更大的
shares of the world’s population, making them more livable as human habitats requires equal priority. Rather than treating urban economic resilience and livability as competing objectives, strategies to incorporate them as complementarities for the longer term sustainability of city-regions must be devised. 由於城市人口佔世界總人口的比例越來越高,因此要使城市成為更宜居的人類棲息地,必須同等優先。與其將都市經濟復甦力與宜居性視為相互競爭的目標,我們必須制定策略,將這兩者結合為城市區域長期永續發展的互補條件。
BUILDING CAPACITIES IN AND AMONG CITIES: FROM INTERCITY COMPETITION TO COOPERATION 城市內部和城市之間的能力建設:從城市間競爭到合作
One reason for the nationwide economic slump is sagging local economies. Their economic futures may not become rosy unless they succeed in producing area-based industries and culture, one after another, everywhere, by recovering a self-supporting mechanism that avoids the current dependency on the central government. For this, “local sovereignty” should be firmly established (ESCJ 1999). ^(22){ }^{22} 造成全國性經濟不景氣的原因之一是地方經濟下滑。除非他們成功地在各地陸續創造出以地區為基礎的產業和文化,恢復自給自足的機制,避免目前對中央政府的依賴,否則他們的經濟前景可能並不樂觀。為此,「地方主權」應該牢固地建立起來(ESCJ 1999)。 ^(22){ }^{22}
Three dimensions of capacity building-localization, collaborative governance, and intercity networks-are fundamental to the task of making cities more livable and economically resilient. 能力建構的三個層面,即當地化、協作治理與城市間網路,是讓城市更適合居住、經濟更具彈性的基本任務。
Localization of Capacity-building 能力建構的當地化
The above quote from the recent report on the path toward economic recovery commissioned by the Prime Minister of Japan captures the paradox that while globalization proceeds into new, more encompassing modes, responsibilities for creating more resilient economies are seen to be increasingly localized. As cities are more directly integrated into the world economy and their economies are less mediated through national political processes, they are compelled to act as arenas for policymaking about global economic interaction. Municipal governments are now being charged with devising their own strategies for globalization and to engage in overt campaigns to attract world investment. In addition, most of the IMF reforms being undertaken in response to the crisis are exposing local economies to even greater direct influences of globalization. Countries that had tightly controlled foreign direct investment are now dismantling barriers to buyouts and cross-border mergers by global enterprises. Property markets have also been opened for the first time to foreign investment and land ownership. 以上引述自日本首相最近委託撰寫的「經濟復甦路徑」報告,說明全球化邁向新的、更廣泛模式的同時,創造更具彈性經濟的責任卻日益地方化的矛盾現象。由於城市更直接融入世界經濟,其經濟也較少受到國家政治程序的影響,因此被迫成為全球經濟互動的決策舞台。市級政府現在被要求制定自己的全球化策略,並參與吸引世界投資的公開運動。此外,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)為因應危機而進行的改革,也讓當地經濟更直接地受到全球化的影響。曾經嚴格控制外國直接投資的國家,現在正拆除全球企業收購與跨國合併的障礙。房地產市場也首次對外國投資和土地擁有權開放。
While such liberalization might have positive effects in some aspects of particular sectors, its broader impacts on the resilience of local urban and regional economies, not to mention the quality of local living, cannot be gauged from spaceless sector models of economic efficiency that cannot capture either the interplay of economic with political, social, and environmental dynamics or the distributional effects of economic growth. There is a pressing need to improve local government and social capacities to develop more strategic approaches to urban development in its fullest sense. Economic restructuring, movements for political reform, and urban development are all intertwined but are also animated 儘管這種自由化可能會對特定部門的某些方面產生正面影響,但其對當地都市與區域經濟復原力的廣泛影響,更遑論當地生活品質,卻無法從無空間的部門經濟效率模型中衡量,因為這些模型既無法捕捉經濟與政治、社會及環境動態的相互影響,也無法捕捉經濟成長的分配效應。我們迫切需要提升地方政府與社會能力,以發展更具策略性的都市發展方式。經濟轉型、政治改革運動與都會發展相互交织,但也相互影響。
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Cities can facilitate improvements in other cities through sharing of performance achievements, which can be used to stimulate improvements among all cities. Such achievements can be further spotlighted by such practices as giving national and international awards to “best cities” in, for example, reducing air pollution. Networking could also involve creating or envisioning urban futures and developing strategies to realize them. 城市可以通過分享績效成就來促進其他城市的改進,而這些績效成就可以用來激勵所有城市的改進。這些成就可以通過頒發國家和國際獎項給在減少空氣污染等方面的 「最佳城市 」來進一步彰顯。建立網絡還可包括創造或構想城市未來,並制定實現這些未來的策略。
Intercity networks are already being formed among countries in many regions of the world. Given the general weakness of local governments, most only play an information exchange or goodwill role. There are, however, many leagues of city organizations within countries, including some in Pacific Asia. ^(24){ }^{24} There is also a growing interest and support for strengthening intercity government relations, as evidenced by the convocation of the World Assembly of Cities and Local Authorities at the Habitat II Conference in 1996, and the growing activity of the International Union of Local Authorities. Such national and international intercity organizations are bound to grow in number as cities increase their awareness of common problems and find greater ease in exchanging information through advances in global communications systems. Whether they can begin to develop a policy voice in the international arena remains to be seen. It is clear, however, that the time has come for cities to try to find more room for cooperative engagement as an antidote to the extremely competitive pressures they now face. 世界上許多地區的國家之間已經形成了城際網路。由於地方政府普遍較弱,大多數只扮演資訊交流或親善的角色。不過,各國內部也有許多城市組織聯盟,包括太平洋亞洲的一些城市。 ^(24){ }^{24} 人們對加強城市間政府關係的興趣和支持也越來越大,1996 年在人居二會議上召開的世界城市和地方政府大會,以及國際地方政府聯盟日益增加的活動都證明了這一點。隨著各城市對共同問題的意識提高,並發現通過全球通信系統的進步更容易交流信息,這類國家和國際城市間組織的數量必然會增加。至於這些組織能否在國際舞台上形成政策聲音,則仍有待觀察。然而,很明顯的是,現在是城市嘗試尋求更多合作空間的時候了,以解決他們目前面臨的極端競爭壓力。
CONCLUSIONS結論
Building local capacities, formulating policy through citizen-governmentbusiness dialogue and collaboration, and finding common ground for cooperation among cities are suggested as important elements of any strategy for strengthening economic resilience and making cities more livable, including supporting the basic welfare of all urban residents. The intention is not to isolate cities from globalization, but rather to create greater room for manouver for cities to secure improvements in all of these vital dimensions of their existence and development. 我們建議,建立地方能力、透過公民與政府、企業間的對話與合作制定政策,以及尋找城市間合作的共同基礎,都是任何強化經濟復甦力與讓城市更宜居策略的重要元素,包括支持所有城市居民的基本福利。我們並非要將城市孤立於全球化之外,而是要為城市創造更大的操作空間,以確保改善城市存在與發展的所有重要層面。
The challenge for cities is how to overcome immediate global pressures that foster trade-offs between economic growth and other goals of development. The proposition put forth here is that this challenge can be met and that possibilities exist for making progress in both economic resilience and livability. Endowing cities with a positive image of livability is increasingly seen as being a key element in capturing investment. Similarly, cities that can assist households in maintaining access to basic goods and services in times of economic turbulence are arguably more likely to avoid the problems of homelessness, crime, and other forms of social dysfunction that ultimately work against economic vitality. From this perspective, the challenge is not one of finding opportunities for improving the potential of city-regions, but rather one of generating local level synergies to be able creatively to seize and use them. 城市面臨的挑戰在於如何克服當前的全球壓力,這些壓力促使城市在經濟成長與其他發展目標之間做出取捨。本文提出的主張是,這項挑戰是可以克服的,而且有可能在經濟復甦力與宜居性兩方面都取得進展。城市宜居的正面形象逐漸被視為吸引投資的關鍵要素。同樣地,城市若能協助住戶在經濟動盪時維持基本商品與服務的取得,就更有可能避免無家可歸、犯罪及其他形式的社會功能失調問題,這些問題最終都會影響經濟活力。從這個角度來看,挑戰不在於尋找提升城市區域潛力的機會,而在於產生地方層級的協同效應,以便能夠創造性地抓住並利用這些機會。
NOTES注意事項
Pritchett (1996) estimates that between 1970 and 1985 the ratio of incomes in the richest and poorest countries increased sixfold, and the average income gap between the richest and poorest countries grew almost ninefold (from $1,500\$ 1,500 to over $12,000\$ 12,000 ). 據 Pritchett (1996) 估計,1970 年到 1985 年間,最富有國家和最貧窮國家的收入比率增加了六倍,最富有國家和最貧窮國家之間的平均收入差距幾乎增加了九倍 (從 $1,500\$ 1,500 到超過 $12,000\$ 12,000 )。
An urban Japanese father is found to spend an average of about seven minutes per day with his children. 研究發現,日本都市的父親平均每天與子女相處的時間約為 7 分鐘。
Three general objectives have been associated with environmental justice and the movements it has spawned: healthy communities for all citizens, rights of redress and access to legal institutions, and citizen participation with government and business in decision-making on environmental matters. 與環境正義及其所衍生的運動相關的一般目標有三:所有公民的健康社區、糾正權利和使用法律機構的權利,以及公民與政府和企業共同參與環境問題的決策。
Improvements are being made in several countries, but gaps remain large. In Japan, for example, the National Environmental Agency announced in 1998 that air pollution from dioxin emissions had been cut by almost half compared to the previous year, but this level is still 6 to 9 times those of other OECD countries. In most other countries, gains in improved engine efficiencies to lower pollutants are being negated by the still rapid growth in vehicle ownership, which is typically occurring at rates in excess of 10 percent per year. 一些国家正在进行改进,但差距仍然很大。例如,在日本,国家环境局于 1998 年宣布,与前一年相比,二恶英排放造成的空气污染几乎减少了一半,但这一水平仍然是其他经合组织国家的 6 至 9 倍。在大多数其他国家,由于汽车拥有量仍在迅速增长,通常以每年超过 10%的速度增长,在提高发动机效率以降低污染物方面取得的成果被抵消了。
In the first quarter of 1996 , the increase in exports slowed from 28 to 8 percent in Thailand, 20 to 6 percent in Hong Kong, from 23 to 17 percent in Malaysia, 32 to 21 percent in Korea, 23 to 9 percent in Taiwan, and 20 to 10 percent in Indonesia (Lewis 1996). 1996 年第一季,泰國的出口增幅由 28% 減至 8%,香港由 20% 減至 6%,馬來西亞由 23% 減至 17%,韓國由 32% 減至 21%,台灣由 23% 減至 9%,印尼由 20% 減至 10%(Lewis 1996)。
In Japan in 1998 the life expectancy of men actually decreased for the first time since World War II due to increases in suicides among older men losing their jobs. Increasing numbers of middle-aged people were also abandoning their homes due to debts and related economic misfortunes (Hawaii Hochi 1999). 在 1998 年的日本,由於失去工作的年長男性自殺率上升,男性的預期壽命自第二次世界大戰以來首次下降。越來越多的中年人也因為債務和相關的經濟不幸而放棄他們的家園 (Hawaii Hochi 1999)。
The demand for supplies of cheap foreign labor is already established in Pacific Asia’s higher income economies. In 1992 the Korean Federation of Small Business stated that the country needed an additional 360,000 workers, or the equivalent of 7.5 percent of the nation’s labor force, to fill shortfalls in low-wage labor availability. Among the 200,000-300,000200,000-300,000 foreign workers in Taiwan are 40,000 Thais, Filipinos, Malaysians, and Indonesians working in retirement homes, an activity that is so dependent on cheap foreign labor that in 1999 the government officially allowed small establishments openly to recruit workers from abroad for this work (China News 1999). In Japan, electric machinery, plastics and certain chemical processing industries, construction, and auto parts making are well known for their reliance on foreign workers to keep wages down and carry out jobs that Japanese workers will no longer take even in the recession (Douglass and Roberts 2000). 太平洋亞洲高收入經濟體對廉價外勞的需求已經確立。1992 年,韓國小型企業聯盟(Korean Federation of Small Business)指出,韓國需要額外 360,000 名工人,相當於全國勞動力的 7.5%,以填補低薪勞工的短缺。在台灣的 200,000-300,000200,000-300,000 外勞中,有 40,000 名泰國人、菲律賓人、馬來西亞人和印尼人在養老院工作,這種活動非常依賴廉價的外勞,以至於在 1999 年,政府正式允許小型企業公開從國外招聘工人從事這項工作(中國新聞 1999)。在日本,電力機械、塑膠及某些化學加工業、建築業及汽車零件製造業都以依賴外國勞工來壓低工資及執行日本工人即使在經濟衰退時也不會再接手的工作而聞名(Douglass and Roberts 2000)。
In Japan the government has linked the period of residence permits to employment contracts. This has allowed employers unilaterally to terminate contracts with foreign workers by using the justification that their visas would soon expire. With the usual practice of deducting about US $5,000\$ 5,000 from the wages of foreign contract workers for the expenses of bringing them from Latin America to Japan, sudden termination has proved to be disastrous as they end up with no money for either themselves or their families in their home countries (Terasawa 2000). 在日本,政府將居留許可的期限與僱傭合約掛鈎。這使得雇主可以用外籍勞工的簽證即將到期作為理由,單方面終止與他們的合約。通常的做法是,從外籍合約勞工的工資中扣除約 $5,000\$ 5,000 美元,作為把他們從拉丁美洲帶到日本的費用,而突然終止合約已被證明是災難性的,因為他們最終無錢為自己或在祖國的家人付錢(Terasawa,2000 年)。
Sen (1990) defines entitlements as the endowments and means of exchange to achieve expanded human capabilities, which he uses to define the idea of develop- Sen (1990)將權利定義為實現人類能力擴展的賦予和交換手段,他以此來定義發展的概念。
ment. As he details, even in times of plenty people were found to be starving in huge numbers due to entitlement failures, i.e. the lack of economic power to obtain what was, in fact, plentiful. 他詳細說明,即使在豐裕的時代,人們也會因為應得權利的失敗而大量飢餓。正如他所詳述的,即使是在豐裕的時代,也發現有大量的人因為應得權利的失敗而挨餓,也就是缺乏經濟能力去獲得事實上是豐裕的東西。
Hong Kong’s 1999 “winning” of the only Disneyland theme park in Asia outside of Japan, for which it is paying 90 percent of the costs while Disney Corporation receives 43 percent of the equity and all receipts from Disney brand merchandise sales, is portrayed as a major event in revitalizing its drifting economy, but is not expected to generate a positive rate of return for another twenty or thirty years. Hong Kong’s subsidies to Disney are estimated to be equivalent to $100,000\$ 100,000 per job created (Honolulu Advertiser 1999). 香港在 1999 年「贏得」亞洲除日本以外唯一的迪士尼主題公園,並為此支付 90% 的成本,而迪士尼公司則獲得 43% 的股權和所有來自迪士尼品牌商品銷售的收入,這被描繪成重振香港經濟的重大事件,但預計在二三十年內都不會產生正回報率。據估計,香港對迪士尼的補貼相當於 $100,000\$ 100,000 每創造一個就業機會 (Honolulu Advertiser 1999)。
Of the all-time-high $97\$ 97 billion in direct foreign investment in developing countries in 1994, about two-thirds was absorbed in East Asia, with China receiving 40 percent of the total (UNCTAD 1995). Of the worldwide foreign investment going to developing countries in 1995, most went to just four countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (UNCTAD 1996). 1994 年,在發展中國家有史以來最高的 $97\$ 97 十億外國直接投資中,約有三分之二被東亞吸收,其中中國獲得總額的 40%(UNCTAD 1995)。在 1995 年流向發展中國家的全球外商投資中,大部分流向了四個國家:中國、印尼、馬來西亞和泰國:中國、印尼、馬來西亞和泰國(UNCTAD 1996)。
Mitsubishi, for example, has created a large fund to buy up Japanese companies that are going bankrupt. Financing for the buyouts is to be set up by Ripplewood Holdings, a U.S.-based firm with 10 percent Mitsubishi ownership, that is being used to raise US$1 billion from Japanese, U.S., and European institutional investors. Mitsubishi states that it intends to buy about ten businesses over the next decade, priced at about 30-40 billion yen each (Asia Pulse 1999b). In Korea, in addition to Samsung’s slated takeover of Daewoo, Hyundai Electronics is absorbing LG Semiconductor, and Kia Motors is merging with Hyundai (Mo 1999). The latter merger is expected to lead to a reduction of shop floor employment by 20 percent and management by 30 percent (Kim, Y.-s. 1999). 舉例來說,三菱創立了一個大型基金,用來收購即將破產的日本公司。收購的融資將由 Ripplewood Holdings 負責,該公司位於美國,三菱持有其 10% 的股權,目前正向日本、美國及歐洲的機構投資者募集 10 億美元。三菱表示,它打算在未來十年內購買約十家企業,每家企業的價格約為 300-400 億日圓(Asia Pulse 1999b)。在韓國,除了 Samsung 擬收購 Daewoo 之外,Hyundai Electronics 也正在吸收 LG Semiconductor,而 Kia Motors 也正在與 Hyundai 合併(Mo 1999)。後者的合併預計會導致車間就業減少 20%,管理階層減少 30%(Kim, Y.-s. 1999)。
Their number has increased from an annual average of fewer than 300 in the early 1980s to more than 600 in the mid-1990s. 其數量已從 1980 年代初期的每年平均不到 300 隻,增加到 1990 年代中期的超過 600 隻。
Daewoo, a giant South Korean chaebol with $15\$ 15 billion in foreign assets and about 40,000 employees in foreign countries (1996), topped the list of transnational enterprises from the South with the largest value of foreign assets, while South Korea has experienced negative GDP growth rates (UNCTAD 1998b). Samsung’s buyout of Daewoo announced in the heat of the Asia economic crisis in 1998 represents a substantial concentration of corporate power. 大宇是南韓的巨型財閥,擁有 $15\$ 15 億的國外資產,在國外約有 40,000 名員工 (1996 年),在南韓擁有最大國外資產值的跨國企業排行榜上名列前茅,而南韓則經歷了國內生產總值的負成長率 (UNCTAD 1998b)。Samsung 在 1998 年亞洲經濟危機的熱潮中宣布收購 Daewoo,代表了企業力量的大幅集中。
UNCTAD 1998a. This same source observes that rarely before has there been so much activity undertaken by national governments and international organizations in the realm of investment negotiations. The number of bilateral framework agreements has been expanding, reaching more than 1,500 by the end of 1997. About 1,800 double taxation agreements covering 178 countries were in effect at the end of the same year. UNCTAD 1998a。同一消息来源指出,各国政府和国际组织在投资谈判领域开展如此多的活动,以前是很少见的。雙邊框架協議的數目不斷增加,到 1997 年底已達 1,500 多項。同年底,约有 1,800 项双重征税协定生效,涉及 178 个国家。
The United Nations predicts that for the foreseeable future in the majority of countries growth will fall far short of what is necessary to effect a substantial improvement in living standards and a reduction in the number of people in poverty. Of the 95 developing countries for which they have reliable data, only 13, including China, will grow enough in 1999 to experience a rise in living standards and a decline in poverty. Approximately 1.2 billion people living in 40 countries suffered declining living standards (Christian Science Monitor, 21 July 1999). 聯合國預測,在可預見的將來,大多數國家的增長將遠遠不能達到大幅提高生活水平和減少貧困人口所需的水平。在 95 個有可靠數據的發展中國家中,只有包括中國在內的 13 個國家,在 1999 年會有足夠的成長,以達到生活水準的提高和貧窮人口的減少。生活在 40 个国家的大约 12 亿人的生活水平下降(《基督教科学箴言报》,1999 年 7 月 21 日)。
The study advises governments to use incentives in a more targeted way to attract firms that have high employment payoffs at higher wages. It also suggests that governments 本研究建議政府以更有針對性的方式使用激勵措施,以吸引那些以較高工資提供較高就業報酬的企業。研究還建議政府
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