Equity Research
We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls.
We Now Expect Three 25bp Rate Cuts in September, October, and December, and Two More Cuts in 2026 to a Terminal Rate of 3-3.25% (vs. 3.5-3.75% Previously)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 Jul 2025 | 12:14am| 7pg| Research | Economics-Jan Hatzius and others
Last week increased expectations of a more dovish Fed (Exhibit 1), de-escalation of Middle East tensions (Exhibit 2) and progress in U.S. trade negotiations (including removal of section 899) supported growth pricing across assets.
1 Jul 2025 | 5:11am| 31pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
The US and European power industries are poised to require >750,000 new workers by 2030 or a significant acceleration in labor productivity. This growth enters a labor force already facing strain from aging and a limited pipeline of skilled labor. This will likely: (1) accelerate deployment of grid optimization / automation / labor efficiency solutions; and (2) potentially benefit incumbent contractors / utilities with a competitive advantage in labor access.
1 Jul 2025 | 6:14am| 49pg| Research | Equity-Evan Tylenda, CFA and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
In this report, we reflect on larger cap diversified E&Ps, companies with exposure to multiple plays across oil and natural gas. Given our expectations for potential near-term softness in Brent prices, we remain selective in our exposure to this group. We upgrade Ovintiv (OVV) from Neutral to Buy given our expectations for outsized free cash flow generation, while we downgrade Coterra Energy (CTRA) from Buy to Neutral on a combination of 2025 outperformance, mixed operational execution (although we assume this improves) and less natural gas leverage following its Permian oil-focused acquisitions. Across this group of stocks, we now highlight:
Neil Mehta
Integrated Oil & Refiners | New York
1 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
- Company HighlightsHasbro Inc. (HAS): Upgrade to Buy: Raise PT to $85 on greater opportunity in Wizards segment and reduced risk in Consumer Products1 Jul 2025 | 4:43am| 27pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and othersChina Resources Beer (0291.HK): Solid beer volume growth with ASP resilience; on track to DD% NP growth in 1H2530 Jun 2025 | 9:50pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Leaf Liu and othersCircle Internet Group (CRCL): A unique asset in the crypto ecosystem, with a healthy growth outlook, although valuation appears elevated; initiate at Neutral30 Jun 2025 | 12:05pm| 38pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and othersAmrize (AMRZ): Market leading franchise entering a challenging point in the cycle; launch at Neutral1 Jul 2025 | 6:14am| 38pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and othersNippon Shokubai (4114.T): Earnings Wrap: Solutions solid, but not optimistic on materials business climate; maintain Sell1 Jul 2025 | 12:40am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Atsushi Ikeda and othersOshkosh Corp. (OSK): Upgrade to Buy amid inflecting Machinery supply, embedded tariff risks, and improving Transportation segment margins1 Jul 2025 | 6:44am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsAmericas Aerospace & Defense: Defense Tech: Launching Defense Tech as industry transformation is under way; Buy AVAV, KTOS, DRS, CAE30 Jun 2025 | 8:21am| 88pg| Research | Equity-Anthony Valentini, CFA and othersAmericas Entertainment: Toys Earnings Preview: Key themes and expectations heading into 2Q25 results1 Jul 2025 | 4:45am| 22pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and othersAmericas Technology: Hardware: AI data center equipment 1Q25 market share & outlook update1 Jul 2025 | 3:18am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and othersTaiwan ODM/Brands: 3-month Preview: ASIC AI servers rising trend; rack-level model transition in 2H25; tariff pull-in brings high base1 Jul 2025 | 2:48am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersAmericas Banks: 2025 CCAR: Structurally lower CET1 requirements, as SCBs move lower, with changes to the test appearing permanent28 Jun 2025 | 10:17am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and othersJapan Technology: Semiconductors: Sector view update: Highlighting our Buy ratings on Disco, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron among large-caps30 Jun 2025 | 9:55pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Shuhei Nakamura and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Weekly Kickstart: Look for early impact of tariffs during 2Q 2025 earnings season28 Jun 2025 | 4:44am| 22pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersGlobal Weekly Kickstart: Rebound week for global markets30 Jun 2025 | 6:57pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Guillaume Jaisson and othersGOAL Risk Keeper: Hedging stagflation and reflation tails into H226 Jun 2025 | 12:01pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (30-Jun-25)30 Jun 2025 | 9:55pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (28-Jun-2025)28 Jun 2025 | 10:23pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (26-Jun-2025)26 Jun 2025 | 11:27pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Oshkosh Corp. (OSK): Upgrade to Buy amid inflecting Machinery supply, embedded tariff risks, and improving Transportation segment margins
1 Jul 2025 | 6:44am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
Amrize (AMRZ): Market leading franchise entering a challenging point in the cycle; launch at Neutral
1 Jul 2025 | 6:14am| 38pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
I
Hasbro Inc. (HAS): Upgrade to Buy: Raise PT to $85 on greater opportunity in Wizards segment and reduced risk in Consumer Products
1 Jul 2025 | 4:43am| 27pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and others
Americas Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P: Staying Selective on Large Cap Diversified E&Ps Amid Commodity Softness; OVV to Buy, CTRA Down to Neutral
1 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
Latest research
Innoviz Technologies (INVZ): Key takeaways from group meeting with management
1 Jul 2025 | 9:52am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and others
RWE (RWEG.DE): Rising optionalities and improving quarters ahead do not appear priced in
1 Jul 2025 | 9:41am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
Endesa SA (ELE.MC): Q2 2025 preview: another ok quarter...but is it all priced in?
1 Jul 2025 | 9:41am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
Americas Transportation: Airlines: June Q Preview; Marking-to-market for higher fuel and reducing 2H 2025 revenue outlook
1 Jul 2025 | 9:03am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Catherine O'Brien and others
Americas Advisors: Weekly M&A activity as of 06.30.2025
1 Jul 2025 | 8:48am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and others
Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD): New product announcements, incl. tokenized US equities, crypto staking, and EU perpetual futures
1 Jul 2025 | 8:09am| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and others
China Property Weekly Wrap: Week 26 Wrap - Primary sales surged while secondary steady, closing 1H25 at -2%/+18% yoy
1 Jul 2025 | 7:02am| 20pg| Research | Equity-Yi Wang, CFA and others
Australia/New Zealand Insurance:: Mid-Year Reinsurance renewals: Broadly in line to slightly better
1 Jul 2025 | 6:52am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Julian Braganza, FIAA
Oshkosh Corp. (OSK): Upgrade to Buy amid inflecting Machinery supply, embedded tariff risks, and improving Transportation segment margins
1 Jul 2025 | 6:44am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF): First take: US District Court orders Argentina to transfer 51% stake in YPF
1 Jul 2025 | 6:27am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Bruno Amorim, CFA and others
Rating changes (last 24 hrs)
Ticker
to
of
Page
of
* Contains active ratings and coverage designation. Source: Goldman Sachs Research
EPS changes (10% or more, last 24 hrs)
Ticker
to
of
Page
of
* Contains active ratings and coverage designation. Source: Goldman Sachs Research
Price target changes (10% or more, last 24 hrs)
Ticker
to
of
Page
of
* Contains active ratings and coverage designation. Source: Goldman Sachs Research
Recommended Publications
GS TWIG Notes
GS TWIG Notes has been added to your Publications
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
GS Equity Radar
GS Equity Radar has been added to your GS Equity Radar
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
Market Intelligence
Market Intelligence has been added to your Publications
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
US Morning Call
US Morning Call has been added to your Publications
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
The 720
The 720 has been added to your The 720
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
Follow rating and list changes
Rating Initiate
You are now following Rating Initiate
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
Rating Upgrade
You are now following Rating Upgrade
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
Rating Downgrade
You are now following Rating Downgrade
View new content in your feed and manage notifications
Get Email Alerts
Get Mobile Alerts
Featured Media
30:59
Research Unplugged: Addressing the Impact of AI on Industry Profit Pools – Advertising Deep Dive28 Jun 2025 | 3:27am| Equity Research
DAILY ROUNDUPS
End of Month Market Intelligence: so much...
1 Jul 2025 | 2:00am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
30 Jun 2025 | 8:38pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Moncler | Nestle | Auto 1 | Hydrogen | Macro | Global | Corporate Access
30 Jun 2025 | 1:37pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Sahar Islam and others
WEEKLY ROUNDUPS
GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - June 27, 2025
28 Jun 2025 | 5:08am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
End of Week Market Intelligence: evolving...
28 Jun 2025 | 3:33am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS Equity Radar: Diversify to Amplify, LVMH and key research from the week
27 Jun 2025 | 10:26pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Sahar Islam and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC and Equities
conference: Europe
30 Jun-2 Jul 2025 | Singapore
We are inviting management and IR teams from CEEMEA companies to participate in one-on-one and small group meetings. The event format will include...Read more
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
1 Jul 2025 | 8am NY | 1pm LN | 8pm HK
Join us to discuss the nascent, and evolving, stablecoin landscape, size the potential market opportunity, its potential impact on the existing...Read more
James Yaro, Diversified Financials
Will Nance, Payments & FinTech
Chris Hussey, US Research Merchandising
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
1 Jul 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
Join us to discuss the state of the subprime consumer and how they are equipped to adapt to current macro uncertainty. We will examine subprime...Read more
George K. Tong, CFA, Business & Information Services Equity Analyst
Kate McShane, CFA, Retail Hardlines Equity Analyst
Bonnie Herzog, Consumer Staples & C-Stores Equity Analyst
Will Nance, Payments & Financial Technology Equity Analyst
Joseph Briggs, Global Economist
Chris Hussey, US Research Merchandising
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
2 Jul 2025 | 8:30am HK | 8:30pm NY(-1) | 1:30am LN
We will discuss the first edition of our "AI Profit Pools" series where we highlight and quantify existing “profit pools” across a number of...Read more
James Covello, Head of Equity Research Management
Eric Sheridan, US Internet Equity Analyst
Michael Snaith, Asia Research Merchandising
Passcode: 597018; Meeting ID: 954 5316 2150
UPCOMING FEATURED CONFERENCES
Asia Leaders Conference
3-5 Sep 2025 | Hong Kong with virtual access
Register
European Medtech & Healthcare Services Conference
3-4 Sep 2025 | London
Register
32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference
3-4 Sep 2025 | New York
Register
European Communacopia Conference
16-17 Sep 2025 | London
Register
14th German Corporate Conference
22-24 Sep 2025 | Munich
Register
PAST CONFERENCES REPLAYS / TAKEAWAYS
