Background 背景
The Great Lakes of the United States and Canada are the largest group of freshwater lakes in the world. The five lakes and connecting waterways constitute a massive drainage basin that contains many large urban areas in these two countries, with varied climate and localized weather conditions.
美国和加拿大的五大湖是世界上最大的淡水湖群。五个湖泊和相连的水道构成了一个巨大的流域，包含这两个国家的许多大型城市地区，气候多样，天气条件各不相同。
美国和加拿大的五大湖是世界上最大的淡水湖群。五个湖泊和相连的水道构成了一个巨大的流域，包含这两个国家的许多大型城市地区，气候多样，天气条件各不相同。
The lakes’ water is used for many purposes (fishing, recreation, power generation, drinking, shipping, animal and fish habitat, construction, irrigation, etc.). Consequently, a vast variety of stakeholders have an interest in the management of the water that flows into and out of the lakes. In particular, if too little water is drained or evaporates from the lakes, then flooding may occur and homes and businesses along the shore suffer; if too much water is drained, then large ships cannot travel through the waterways to bring supplies and support the local economy. The main problem is regulating the water levels such that all stakeholders can benefit.
湖水用于多种用途（捕鱼、娱乐、发电、饮用、航运、动物和鱼类栖息地、建筑、灌溉等）。因此，各种各样的利益相关者都对流入和流出湖泊的水的管理感兴趣。特别是，如果湖中排出的水或蒸发的水太少，则可能会发生洪水，沿岸的房屋和企业受到影响;如果排干了太多的水，那么大型船只就无法通过水道运送补给和支持当地经济。主要问题是调节水位，以便所有利益相关者都能受益。
湖水用于多种用途（捕鱼、娱乐、发电、饮用、航运、动物和鱼类栖息地、建筑、灌溉等）。因此，各种各样的利益相关者都对流入和流出湖泊的水的管理感兴趣。特别是，如果湖中排出的水或蒸发的水太少，则可能会发生洪水，沿岸的房屋和企业受到影响;如果排干了太多的水，那么大型船只就无法通过水道运送补给和支持当地经济。主要问题是调节水位，以便所有利益相关者都能受益。
The water level in each lake is determined by how much water enters and leaves the lake. These levels are the result of complex interactions among temperature, wind, tides, precipitation, evaporation, bathymetry (the shape of the lake bottom), river flows and runoff, reservoir policies, seasonal cycles, and long-term climate changes. There are two primary control mechanisms within the flow of water in the Great Lakes system - Compensating Works of the Soo Locks at Sault Ste. Marie (three hydropower plants, five navigation locks, and a gated dam at the head of the rapids) and the Moses-Saunders Dam at Cornwall as indicated in the Addendum.
每个湖泊的水位取决于进出湖泊的水量。这些水平是温度、风、潮汐、降水、蒸发、测深（湖底的形状）、河流流量和径流、水库政策、季节性周期和长期气候变化之间复杂相互作用的结果。五大湖系统的水流有两个主要的控制机制 - 苏圣玛丽 （Sault Ste. Marie） 苏水闸的补偿工程（三座水电站、五座航闸和急流前端的一座封闭式大坝）和康沃尔郡的摩西-桑德斯大坝，如附录所示。
每个湖泊的水位取决于进出湖泊的水量。这些水平是温度、风、潮汐、降水、蒸发、测深（湖底的形状）、河流流量和径流、水库政策、季节性周期和长期气候变化之间复杂相互作用的结果。五大湖系统的水流有两个主要的控制机制 - 苏圣玛丽 （Sault Ste. Marie） 苏水闸的补偿工程（三座水电站、五座航闸和急流前端的一座封闭式大坝）和康沃尔郡的摩西-桑德斯大坝，如附录所示。
While the two control dams, many channels and canals, and the drainage basin reservoirs may be controlled by humans, the rates of rain, evaporation, erosion, ice jams, and other water-flow phenomena are beyond human manipulation. The policies of local jurisdictions may have different effects than expected, as can seasonal and environmental changes in the water basin. These changes in turn affect the ecosystem of the area, which impacts the health of the flora and fauna found in and around the lakes and the residents that live in the water basin. Even though the Great Lakes seem to have a regular annual pattern, a variance from normal of two to three feet of water level can dramatically affect some of the stakeholders.
虽然这两个控制坝、许多渠道和运河以及流域盆地水库可能由人类控制，但降雨速度、蒸发、侵蚀、冰塞和其他水流现象超出了人类的控制范围。地方司法管辖区的政策可能产生与预期不同的影响，流域的季节性和环境变化也是如此。这些变化反过来又影响了该地区的生态系统，从而影响了湖泊内和周围发现的动植物以及生活在流域中的居民的健康。尽管五大湖似乎每年都有规律的模式，但与正常水平相差 2 到 3 英尺的水位可能会极大地影响一些利益相关者。
虽然这两个控制坝、许多渠道和运河以及流域盆地水库可能由人类控制，但降雨速度、蒸发、侵蚀、冰塞和其他水流现象超出了人类的控制范围。地方司法管辖区的政策可能产生与预期不同的影响，流域的季节性和环境变化也是如此。这些变化反过来又影响了该地区的生态系统，从而影响了湖泊内和周围发现的动植物以及生活在流域中的居民的健康。尽管五大湖似乎每年都有规律的模式，但与正常水平相差 2 到 3 英尺的水位可能会极大地影响一些利益相关者。
This dynamic network flow problem is “wicked” - exceptionally challenging to solve because of interdependencies, complicated requirements, and inherent uncertainties. For the lake’s problems, we have ever-changing dynamics and the conflicting interests of stakeholders.
这个动态网络流问题是“邪恶的”——由于相互依赖、复杂的需求和固有的不确定性，解决起来非常具有挑战性。对于湖泊的问题，我们有不断变化的动态和利益相关者的利益冲突。
See Problem D Addendum for Additional Information.
参见问题 D 附录以获取更多信息。
这个动态网络流问题是“邪恶的”——由于相互依赖、复杂的需求和固有的不确定性，解决起来非常具有挑战性。对于湖泊的问题，我们有不断变化的动态和利益相关者的利益冲突。
See Problem D Addendum for Additional Information.
参见问题 D 附录以获取更多信息。
Requirement 要求
The International Joint Commission (IJC) requests support from your company, International network Control Modelers - ICM, to assist with management and models for the control mechanisms (the two dams - Compensating Works and Moses-Saunders Dam as indicated in the Addendum) that directly influence water levels in the Great Lakes flow network. Your ICM supervisor has given your team the lead in developing the model and a management plan to implement the model. Your supervisor indicates there are several considerations that may help to achieve this goal starting with the building of a network model for the Great Lakes and connecting river flows from Lake Superior to the Atlantic Ocean. Some other optional considerations or issues your supervisor mentioned were:
国际联合委员会 （IJC） 请求贵公司国际网络控制建模者 - ICM 提供支持，以协助管理和建模直接影响五大湖流网中水位的控制机制（两座大坝 - 附录中所示的补偿工程和摩西-桑德斯大坝）。您的 ICM 主管已让您的团队领导开发模型和实施模型的管理计划。您的主管表示，有几个考虑因素可能有助于实现此目标，首先是为五大湖构建网络模型，并将从苏必利尔湖到大西洋的河流流量连接起来。您的主管提到的其他一些可选考虑因素或问题是：
国际联合委员会 （IJC） 请求贵公司国际网络控制建模者 - ICM 提供支持，以协助管理和建模直接影响五大湖流网中水位的控制机制（两座大坝 - 附录中所示的补偿工程和摩西-桑德斯大坝）。您的 ICM 主管已让您的团队领导开发模型和实施模型的管理计划。您的主管表示，有几个考虑因素可能有助于实现此目标，首先是为五大湖构建网络模型，并将从苏必利尔湖到大西洋的河流流量连接起来。您的主管提到的其他一些可选考虑因素或问题是：
- Determination of the optimal water levels of the five Great Lakes at any time of the year, taking into account the various stakeholders’ desires (the costs and benefits could be different for each stakeholder).
确定五大湖在一年中任何时候的最佳水位，同时考虑到各个利益相关者的愿望（每个利益相关者的成本和收益可能不同）。 - Establishment of algorithms to maintain optimal water levels in the five lakes from inflow and outflow data for the lakes.
根据湖泊的流入和流出数据建立算法以保持五个湖泊的最佳水位。 - Understanding of the sensitivity of your control algorithms for the outflow of the two control dams. Given the data for 2017, would your new controls result in satisfactory or better than the actual recorded water levels for the various stakeholders for that year?
了解控制算法对两个控制坝流出的敏感性。鉴于 2017 年的数据，您的新控制措施是否会让各个利益相关者满意或优于当年实际记录的水位？ - How sensitive is your algorithm to changes in environmental conditions (e.g., precipitation, winter snowpack, ice jams)?
您的算法对环境条件变化（例如，降水、冬季积雪、冰塞）的敏感度如何？ - Focus your extensive analysis of ONLY the stakeholders and factors influencing Lake Ontario as there is more recent concern for the management of the water level for this lake.
仅将您广泛的分析集中在影响安大略湖的利益相关者和因素上，因为最近对该湖水位的管理提出了更多担忧。
The IJC is also interested in what historical data you use to inform your models and establish parameters, as they are curious to compare how your management and control strategies compare to previous models. Provide a one-page memo to IJC leadership communicating the key features of your model to convince them to select your model.
IJC 还对您使用哪些历史数据来告知您的模型和建立参数感兴趣，因为他们很想比较您的管理和控制策略与以前的模型相比如何。向 IJC 领导层提供一份单页备忘录，传达您模型的关键功能，以说服他们选择您的模型。
IJC 还对您使用哪些历史数据来告知您的模型和建立参数感兴趣，因为他们很想比较您的管理和控制策略与以前的模型相比如何。向 IJC 领导层提供一份单页备忘录，传达您模型的关键功能，以说服他们选择您的模型。
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 pages total should include:
您的总页数不超过 25 页的 PDF 解决方案应包括：
您的总页数不超过 25 页的 PDF 解决方案应包括：
- One-page summary sheet that clearly describes your approach to the problem and your most important conclusions from your analysis in the context of the problem.
单页摘要表，清楚地描述您解决问题的方法以及您在问题上下文中分析得出的最重要结论。 - Table of Contents. 目录。
- Your complete solution. 您的完整解决方案。
- One-page memo. 单页备忘录。
- Reference List. 参考列表。
- AI Use Report (if used).
AI 使用报告（如果使用）。
Note: There is no specific required minimum page length for a complete ICM submission. You may use up to 25 total pages for all your solution work and any additional information you want to include (for example: drawings, diagrams, calculations, tables). Partial solutions are accepted. We permit the careful use of AI such as ChatGPT, although it is not necessary to create a solution to this problem. If you choose to utilize a generative AI, you must follow the COMAP AI use policy. This will result in an additional AI use report that you must add to the end of your PDF solution file and does not count toward the 25 total page limit for your solution.
注意：完整的 ICM 提交没有特定的最小页面长度要求。您最多可以使用总共 25 页来存储所有解决方案工作和要包含的任何其他信息（例如：图纸、图表、计算、表格）。接受部分解决方案。我们允许谨慎使用 ChatGPT 等 AI，尽管没有必要为此问题创建解决方案。如果您选择使用生成式 AI，则必须遵循 COMAP AI 使用政策。这将产生一份额外的 AI 使用报告，您必须将其添加到 PDF 解决方案文件的末尾，并且不会计入解决方案的总页数限制为 25 页。
注意：完整的 ICM 提交没有特定的最小页面长度要求。您最多可以使用总共 25 页来存储所有解决方案工作和要包含的任何其他信息（例如：图纸、图表、计算、表格）。接受部分解决方案。我们允许谨慎使用 ChatGPT 等 AI，尽管没有必要为此问题创建解决方案。如果您选择使用生成式 AI，则必须遵循 COMAP AI 使用政策。这将产生一份额外的 AI 使用报告，您必须将其添加到 PDF 解决方案文件的末尾，并且不会计入解决方案的总页数限制为 25 页。
Files provided: 提供的文件：
- Problem D Addendum - Additional background information.
问题 D 附录 - 其他背景信息。 - Data Examples - These are possible sources for data. Some of which were used to populate the Problem_D_Great_Lakes.xlsx data set. These examples can be found on page 4 of the Problem D Addendum. Note: These examples are not required to successfully formulate a solution.
数据示例 - 这些是可能的数据来源。其中一些用于填充 Problem_D_Great_Lakes.xlsx 数据集。这些示例可以在问题 D 附录的第 4 页找到。注： 这些示例不是成功制定解决方案所必需的。 - Problem_D_Great_Lakes.xlsx - Data for the inflows, outflows, and water levels for the lakes.
Problem_D_Great_Lakes.xlsx - 湖泊的流入、流出和水位数据。
References (in addition to the included background data file):
参考资料（除了包含的背景数据文件）：
- Explanation of the IJC’s Efforts to Manage the Great Lakes Basin: National Research Council; The Royal Society of Canada. (2006). Review of Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies. Washington D.C.: National Research Council of the National Academies. Retrieved from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11481/review-of-the-lake-ontario-st-lawrence-river-studies
IJC 管理五大湖盆地努力的解释：国家研究委员会;加拿大皇家学会。（2006）. 安大略湖-圣。劳伦斯河研究。华盛顿特区：美国国家科学院国家研究委员会。取自 https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11481/review-of-the-lake-ontario-st-lawrence-river-studies - Description of the Great Lakes Navigation Systems: Great Lakes Seaway Navigation System. (2023). Retrieved from American Great Lakes Ports Association: https://www.greatlakesports.org/industry-overview/the-great-lakes-seaway-navigationsystem/#: :text=Lake%20Erie%20drains%20into%20Lake,in%20elevation%20approxim ately%20600%20feet
五大湖导航系统描述：五大湖航道导航系统。（2023）. 取自美国五大湖港口协会： https://www.greatlakesports.org/industry-overview/the-great-lakes-seaway-navigationsystem/#： ：text=Lake%20Erie%20drains%20into%20Lake，in%20elevation%20approxim ately%20600%20feet