Equity Research

Trade policy uncertainty rose after President Trump’s election but has recently pulled back according to standard indices. Our own and the Fed’s statistical estimates (as well as economic theory) imply that the drag on growth from uncertainty peaks shortly after it first increases, implying that uncertainty should have already slowed global growth. There are very few signs that uncertainty is taking a toll on activity, however, as investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall activity have all held up globally in 2025H1.