Equity Research
TARIFFS & RECESSION RISK IN FOCUS
Global Markets Daily: Could We Have Seen the Worst in Markets Already?
The most immediate question for markets is whether there is fresh downside to come. We said that a shift in trade policy was the most obvious route for recovery in risk assets, and there has been a modest version of that dynamic since April 9. Even though the economic impact is yet to be felt, it is possible that we are past the peak of new tariff “shocks” and policy uncertainty.
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Vickie Chang
Commodity Views: Hedge Cyclical Recession Risk; Structurally Bullish Gold and Copper
We recommend that investors hedge elevated cyclical recession risk with oil puts and long gold positions. We also believe that the recent acceleration in 4D structural trends—dollar diversification, defense spending, de-risking energy, and disinvestment in copper—is increasing the appeal of long-run investments in gold and copper.
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others
Asia Views: Bracing for the tariff impact
Even with a temporary rollback of some tariffs, timely data suggest a material slowdown ahead in Asian exports to the United States. For example, multiple PMIs weakened, Korea’s exports declined markedly in mid-April, and our China equity analysts’ survey of their covered exporting companies suggested a large impact.
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others
Asia Economics Analyst: Repatriation Flows - Who Are The Potential Beneficiaries in Asia?
Foreign ownership of US equities and US Treasuries has more than doubled over the past decade to USD 26tn. The diminished US exceptionalism outlook raises the question of whether Asian investors will repatriate their holdings to their home countries, reallocate to other foreign markets, or simply reduce marginal investments in US assets.
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Danny Suwanapruti and others
Also see:
US Economics Analyst: The Trade War and the Risk of Production Disruptions
27 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - David Mericle, Elsie Peng, Jessica Rindels and others
China Musings: Catching the accelerating Southbound train
27 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton
Asia in Focus: China: Labor market implications from heightened US tariffs
27 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Yuting Yang, Xinquan Chen and others
EQUITY IMPLICATIONS
Around the world in 80 charts: Trade holding up for now
28 Apr 2025 | 12:50pm| 34pg| Research | Equity-Patrick Creuset and others
Americas Rental Cars: 1Q25 Preview: We expect pressures on demand and DOE, but potential tariff benefits to DPU the key offset
28 Apr 2025 | 4:59pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Lizzie Dove and others
Japan Automobiles: Asia investor visits: Assessing tariff impact
28 Apr 2025 | 9:14pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Kota Yuzawa and others
China Multi-Industry: Tariff Impact - Feedback from Appliances, Autos, Industrial Tech & Solar Companies (week of Apr 28, 2025)
28 Apr 2025 | 4:07pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Yi Wang, CFA and others
Last week, US existing home sales came in below expectations. Euro area composite PMIs declined below expectations. For this week, our economists expect NFPs rose 140k in April, above consensus. Financial markets have be...
29 Apr 2025 | 5:36am| 30pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
Overall tax filing volumes for the 2025 tax season grew stable low-single-digits based on data from the IRS, in-line with our expectations and creating positive implications for the defensive tax preparation services industry.
29 Apr 2025 | 1:49pm| 16pg| Research | Equity-George K. Tong, CFA and others
We expect investor focuses on Tencent's upcoming 1Q print (May 14) to center around progress of adtech-driven marketing services revenue growth, sustainability of games growth into 2H (with our positive takeaways from SPARK conference within), fintech growth outlook (on macro) and AI agent progress/eventual path to monetization. We forecast healthy 1Q25E results with top-line (GSe: +10% yoy) and EPS (GSe: +20% yoy) with EPS sustaining at 2X of revenue growth
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Ronald Keung and others
With JD's faster-than-expected food delivery ramp-up to 1/6 of Meituan's daily orders within two months of operations and the significant 20% share price declines of both Meituan and JD since April (vs. HSTECH of -9%), we lay out three eventual scenarios and assess the potential impacts to Meituan and JD.
30 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Ronald Keung and others
Also read:
Alibaba Group (BABA): Announced latest Qwen3 hybrid reasoning model; proliferation of inference demand to drive cloud growth; Buy
Asia Online Games: Top ideas into 2Q25 - Resilient growth amid uncertainty, PC/console and overseas fast expansion; 1Q preview
NetEase Inc. (NTES): 1Q25 Preview: Strong PC momentum to offset mobile weakness; step-up in overseas contribution; Buy
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
We cut our ABF substrate TAM by 12/10% in 2025/26E, and believe the ABF substrate market will be in a 7% oversupply in 2025E on the back of lower than previously expected AI server GPU substrate/AI server rack shipment and an increase in pricing pressure. Based on our "Rule of three" framework, the legacy ABF substrate product cycle will remain at a bottom level in next 12+ months, despite the solid high-end ABF substrate demand growth in the near-term.
Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958.TW): ABF product upgrade driven by Chinese AI chip localization; initiate at Buy with TP of NT$115
29 Apr 2025 | 51pg | Research | Equity - Chao Wang and others
Grab (GRAB): 1Q25 First Take: Stronger-than-expected on-demand performance; EBITDA guidance raised; Buy
30 Apr 2025 | 7:47am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Pang Vittayaamnuaykoon and others
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): Q1'25 Earnings Review: Solid Operating Results with Current Estimate Trajectory Demonstrating Less Pronounced Upside; Long-Term Thesis Intact
30 Apr 2025 | 2:16am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and others
HSBC (HSBA.L/0005.HK): Estimates raised post 1Q25 beat; Buy
29 Apr 2025 | 11:16pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and others
China Banks: First take: Large SOE banks missed on net profit in 1Q25. Maintaining flat 2025 DPS is top of mind
29 Apr 2025 | 11:14pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and others
Krafton (259960.KS): 1Q25 review; Clean rev/OP beat on strong PUBG momentum; risk/reward still attractive; Buy (on CL)
30 Apr 2025 | 6:24am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and others
- Company HighlightsChina Merchants Bank (3968.HK): First Take: 1Q25 miss on weak NIM and investments; Focus on '25 loan growth target and returns; Buy29 Apr 2025 | 9:59pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and othersKweichow Moutai (600519.SS): Solid Delivery of 1Q25: Sales/NP up 11%/12%, slightly ahead of full-year target30 Apr 2025 | 12:52am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Leaf Liu and othersAIA Group (1299.HK): 1Q25 update takeaways: VONB beat, China show positive underlying growth30 Apr 2025 | 7:08am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Thomas Wang and othersCoca-Cola Co. (KO): A Q1 beat, but FY25 f/x neutral EPS growth guide lowered on trade dynamics but dollar EPS guide maintained30 Apr 2025 | 9:50am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Bonnie Herzog and othersPayPal Holdings (PYPL): 1Q25 Key Takeaways: A more conservative macro outlook, offset by a stronger 1H of the year30 Apr 2025 | 5:28am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Will Nance and othersSuper Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F3Q25 First Take: Negative preannouncement on customer platform delays and product transition30 Apr 2025 | 5:12am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsAmericas Consumer Finance: Updated accretion analysis for pending Capital One / Discover merger post 1Q2530 Apr 2025 | 3:31am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Ryan M. Nash, CFA and othersChina Industrial Tech: Factory Automation: Lower 2H demand outlook but unlikely a deep decline30 Apr 2025 | 7:59am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline Du and othersAmericas Basic Materials: US steel industry snapshot; steady production but moderating spot pricing29 Apr 2025 | 2:47pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Mike HarrisEurope Multi-Industry: Mining Equipment Suppliers: Reads from 1Q25 so far - Buy Weir and Metso, FLS preview29 Apr 2025 | 12:23am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Christian Hinderaker, CFA and othersAmericas MedTech and Healthcare IT: What to Expect Entering a Likely More Volatile Earnings Week29 Apr 2025 | 4:12am| 14pg| Research | Equity-David Roman and othersGlobal Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals: The Obesity Evolution: Digesting Oral Pill Developments -- Updating Our Market Model28 Apr 2025 | 6:00pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Thematic Views: Gauging the recent foreign investor selling of US equities25 Apr 2025 | 6:55am| 8pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Daniel Chavez and othersStrategy Espresso: Looking for Domestic Quality28 Apr 2025 | 12:00pm| 13pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Guillaume Jaisson and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Trading corporate uses of cash in a slowing economic growth environment26 Apr 2025 | 4:25am| 33pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSMacro Catalyst Reactions (29-Apr-2025)29 Apr 2025 | 6:51pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (28-Apr-25)28 Apr 2025 | 9:11pm| 16pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (27-Apr-2025)27 Apr 2025 | 8:44pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Sandfire Resources (SFR.AX): 3Q FY25 result: metal production impacted by rain, big 4Q required to hit guidance; down to Neutral on valuation
30 Apr 2025 | 7:29am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and others
Asia Technology: ABF oversupply to continue till 2H26E, with key impact to tier-2 suppliers; d/g Unimicron/Kinsus to Neutral/Sell
29 Apr 2025 | 7:38pm| 51pg| Research | Equity-Chao Wang and others
Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958.TW): ABF product upgrade driven by Chinese AI chip localization; initiate at Buy with TP of NT$115
29 Apr 2025 | 7:32pm| 23pg| Research | Equity-Chao Wang and others
I
Avantor Inc. (AVTR): 1Q25 Recap - Return to growth for Lab Solutions will take time, downgrade to Neutral
29 Apr 2025 | 4:00pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Matthew Sykes and others
Latest research
Fibra Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX): 1Q25 Earnings First Take: Better than Expected; High Retention Rates on Renewals
30 Apr 2025 | 10:47am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
Vasen (002372.SZ): Earnings Review: 1Q25 (NP -26% yoy) pointed to sustained pressure in growth and margin; Sell
30 Apr 2025 | 10:46am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Nick Zheng, CFA and others
Beach Energy Ltd. (BPT.AX): 3Q FY25 result: Extra LNG cargo swap accelerates Waitsia cash, elevated Otway capex confirmed, Sell on valuation
30 Apr 2025 | 10:44am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Henry Meyer and others
Alsea (ALSEA.MX): 1Q25 First Take: Downside risks materialize
30 Apr 2025 | 10:42am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Thiago Bortoluci and others
PPG Industries Inc. (PPG): First Take: Q1 beat, FY25 guide maintained $7.75-$8.05 (midpoint above consensus)
30 Apr 2025 | 10:40am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Duffy Fischer and others
Fibra Uno (FUNO11.MX): 1Q25 First Take: Overall Robust Quarter
30 Apr 2025 | 10:34am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ): 2024/1Q25 Earnings Review: Focus on channel health and pricing to prepare for shipment to next festival season
30 Apr 2025 | 10:11am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Leaf Liu and others
Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS): 1Q25 First Take: Solid quarter and unchanged guidance
30 Apr 2025 | 10:02am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Julien Blouin and others
Andina (ANDINAB.SN): 1Q25 First Take: Strong Brazil and Argentina; Chile getting marginally better
30 Apr 2025 | 9:59am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Thiago Bortoluci and others
NeoGenomics Inc. (NEO): 1Q25 Recap - Slower start to the year puts focus on back half acceleration
30 Apr 2025 | 9:57am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Matthew Sykes and others
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Featured Media
DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Tencent preview, Food delivery (Meituan vs JD), Krafton, China Banks, HSBC, Weichai Power, Taiwan ABF
30 Apr 2025 | 7:36am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: data-watch
30 Apr 2025 | 1:51am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
29 Apr 2025 | 8:48pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
3-30 Apr 2025 | Shenzhen, Virtual
3rd April: In- person in Shenzhen. Followed by a virtual event from 7th-30th April.
Global Investment Research in partnership with Global Banking & Markets
webcast: Asia
30 Apr 2025 | 10am HK | 10pm NY(-1) | 3am LN
This call is a part of China in Motion.
Ronald Keung, Head of Asia Internet Research
Lincoln Kong, Asia Internet Analyst
Timothy Zhao, Asia Internet Analyst
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
30 Apr 2025 | 1pm NY | 6pm LN | 1am HK(+1)
Join our discussion with Dr. Mark Feinberg to review lorundrostat's pivotal study results and commercial potential in 3/4L+ HTN. Key topics...Read more
Dr. Mark Feinberg, M.D., Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School
Richard Law, Ph.D., US Emerging Biotechnology Analyst
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
2 May 2025 | 12:30pm NY | 5:30pm LN | 12:30am HK(+1)
Please contact your sales representative if you wish to participate. Dial-in details will be circulated to confirmed investors closer to event...Read more
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UPCOMING FEATURED CONFERENCES
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