Inflation skyrocketed. The federal debt ballooned. The economy took a hit but got back up.
Since Donald Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, it has been almost normal to see a spike, a dip or a wave in a federal government data series that tells of substantial change wrought by the pandemic, by policy or in the foundations of the economy.
Here’s a crib sheet of vital economic and national indicators—with a few cultural touchstones added for relief—comparing their latest readings with the values on three prior Inauguration Days.
Gross domestic product
Percentage change from previous quarter,
Q3 before inauguration
0.6%
2.9
35.2
3.1
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
Covid left the economy in a deep hole in the first half of 2020, but growth rebounded sharply in the third quarter of that year. Now, the president-elect will enter office with gross domestic product having posted annualized gains of 3% or more for two consecutive quarters and economists forecasting growth just above 2% for 2025.
Eggs
Inflation-adjusted average price per dozen large,
Grade A eggs, December before inauguration
$2.76
1.81
1.79
4.15
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
Still, many Americans remain focused on prices. Consider eggs, the great equalizer of kitchens from the Michelin-starred to the greasy spoon: A dozen large eggs cost $4.15 on average in December, according to the Labor Department, more than twice as much as the December reading before Trump’s first inaugural. Bird-flu outbreaks in commercial egg-laying flocks have recently led to empty shelves in some areas, adding to consumer jitters.
Consumer-price index
Year-over-year percentage change,
December before inauguration
1.7%
2.1
1.4
2.9
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
It isn’t just eggs. The consumer-price index ticked up 2.9% in the 12 months through December, according to the Labor Department. Not only is that more than the December before Trump’s first inaugural, but the American wallet still remembers the huge rise in prices in between.
The Federal Reserve is on a long last-mile march to get inflation closer to 2%, but stubborn price pressures—which could be fueled further by Trump’s plans for new tariffs and curbs on immigration—have left officials sounding more hawkish, projecting fewer rate cuts this year than anticipated.
Unemployment rate
December before inauguration
7.9%
4.7
6.7
4.1
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
At 4.1% in December, the unemployment rate is the lowest month-before-an-inauguration reading in more than two decades, according to the Labor Department. To find one lower, you have to go back to December 2000—ahead of George W. Bush’s first inauguration—when unemployment hit 3.9%.
At the start of Trump’s first term, unemployment was part way through a long decline after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Now, with the economy adding 256,000 jobs in December, the president-elect looks to inherit a solid labor market.
Manufacturing employment
U.S. manufacturing employees, December before inauguration
12.4
12.2
12.9
12.0 million
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
OBAMA
2013
But not every sector is growing robustly. Manufacturing jobs—possibly the most name-checked job type on the campaign trail—declined by 87,000 last year, according to Labor Department data. Though employment in the sector is up slightly since December 2016, today 6.7 million fewer people are working in manufacturing than at the peak in June 1979.
In better news, employment in the motion-picture and sound industries in December climbed above prepandemic levels.
Top-grossing films
Inflation-adjusted U.S. box office in the December
before the inauguration
2012: The Hobbit
$314.2 million
533.7
2016: Rogue One
27.9
2020: Wonder Woman 1984
213.4
2024: Moana 2
Regardless of economic trends, Hollywood and moviegoers still like a good franchise with their popcorn.
Disney’s “Moana 2” earned $213.4 million in the U.S. to top the December box office, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. The sequel has a total gross of more than $445 million through the holiday weekend, and in December it led a roster of holiday releases including “Wicked,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” “Mufasa: The Lion King” and “Gladiator II.”
It was a contrast to the pandemic-bust December before President Biden’s inauguration, when “Wonder Woman 1984” eked out an inflation-adjusted $27.9 million.
S&P 500
Close, last session before inauguration
1485.98
2263.69
3798.91
5996.66
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
Levels of the major stock indexes are all higher than at the start of Trump’s first term. But investors have been casting a wary eye at rising bond yields and the Fed’s interest-rate plans. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 5996.66, about 165% above its level before Trump’s 2017 inauguration.
Federal debt
Debt held by the public as a percentage of
gross domestic product, Q3 before inauguration
69%
75
97
96
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
OBAMA
2013
Trump will inherit a federal debt of about $36.2 trillion on Inauguration Day—more than $16 trillion higher than when he last entered the White House. As of the third quarter, debt held by the public—total public debt minus intragovernmental holdings—was 96% of GDP, up from 75% in the same quarter of 2016.
Southwest-border migrant encounters
December before inauguration
23,243
43,251
71,141
47,326
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
The Border Patrol logged about 47,300 encounters with migrants at the Southwest U.S. border in December. That is slightly more than the December before Trump’s first inauguration, but well below monthly peaks above 200,000 during 2021-23.
Though Trump has pledged to deport 15 million to 20 million immigrants living illegally in the U.S., his tough-talking border czar has tempered that number and said the initial targets for arrest would likely be immigrants with criminal records.
U.S. trade deficit
In goods, 12-month sum, November before inauguration
$0.7 trillion
0.7
0.9
1.2
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
The U.S. imported $1.2 trillion more in goods than it exported for the 12 months ended in November. That deficit is up from the similar reading before Trump’s first inaugural and one of the reasons the president-elect is pledging to implement tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and other countries.
For a final pop-culture touchstone to mark the eight-year gap between Trump inaugurals, a look at one of America’s leading exports:
Top albums
The No. 1 album the week of inauguration
Dangerous:
The Double Album,
Morgan Wallen
Burning Lights,
Chris Tomlin
Debí Tirar
Más Fotos,
Bad Bunny
Starboy,
The Weeknd
OBAMA
2013
TRUMP
2017
Biden
2021
Trump
2025
No spikes, dips or waves here, just possible soundtrack entries for inauguration parties.
Sources: Commerce Department (GDP); Bureau of Labor Statistics (eggs, consumer-price index, unemployment rate, manufacturing employment); FactSet (S&P 500); Treasury Department via St. Louis Fed (public debt); Census (trade deficit); Customs and Border Protection (border encounters); Boxofficemojo.com (top films); Billboard (top albums).
Photos: Getty Images (Tomlin); Valery Hache/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images (The Weeknd); Jordan Strauss/Associated Press (Wallen); Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images (Bad Bunny).
Notes: Egg prices are U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rate seasonally adjusted. From March 2020 to May 2023, border encounters represent apprehensions as well as arrests resulting in immediate expulsion; otherwise, encounters represent apprehensions. Top albums are the Billboard 200 No. 1-ranked album, inauguration week.
Write to Anthony DeBarros at anthony.debarros@wsj.com and Rosie Ettenheim at rosie.ettenheim@wsj.com
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