The American people deserve a choice. They deserve a candidate who will reject the failed policies of the past and embrace the failed policies of the future.
美国人民应该有一个选择。他们应该有一位候选人,摒弃过去失败的政策,拥抱未来失败的政策。
It is my honor to announce I am throwing my hat into both the Democratic and Republican primaries (to double my chances), with the following platform:
我很荣幸地宣布,我将同时参加民主党和共和党的初选(机会加倍),我的竞选纲领如下:
Ensure Naval Supremacy And Reduce Wealth Inequality By Bringing Back The Liturgy
回归礼仪,确保海军至高无上,减少财富不平等
The liturgy was a custom of ancient Athens. When the state needed something (usually a new warship) it would ask for volunteers among its richest citizens.
礼仪是古代雅典的习俗。当国家需要某样东西(通常是一艘新战舰)时,就会向最富有的公民征集志愿者。
Usually one would step up to gain glory or avoid scorn; if nobody did, the courts were allowed to choose the richest person who hadn’t helped out recently.
通常情况下,会有一个人挺身而出,以赢得荣誉或避免鄙视;如果没有人挺身而出,法院就可以选择最近没有帮助过的最富有的人。
The liturgist would fund the warship and command it as captain for two years, after which his debt to the state was considered discharged and he was given a golden crown.
礼仪师将出资建造战舰,并担任舰长两年,两年后,他对国家的债务被视为已经清偿,他将获得一顶金冠。
Historians treat the liturgy as a gray area between voluntary service and compulsory taxation; most rich Athenians were eager to serve and gain the relevant honor, but they also knew that if they didn’t, they could be compelled to perform the same service with less benefit to their personal reputation.
历史学家将礼仪视为介于自愿服务和强制征税之间的灰色地带;大多数富有的雅典人都渴望服务并获得相关荣誉,但他们也知道,如果不这样做,他们可能会被迫从事同样的服务,但对个人声誉的益处较小。
Defense analysts warn that America’s naval dominance is declining:
国防分析家警告说, 美国的海军优势正在下降:
Only 25 per cent of America’s 114 commissioned surface combatants (cruisers, destroyers, and littoral combat ships) are less than a decade old. By comparison more than 80 per cent of China’s 141 destroyers, frigates, and corvettes have been commissioned in the past decade.
在美国服役的 114 艘水面战斗舰(巡洋舰、驱逐舰和濒海战斗舰)中,只有 25% 的舰龄不到十年。相比之下,中国的 141 艘驱逐舰、护卫舰和轻型护卫舰中有 80% 以上是在过去十年中服役的。
In the same time period, the United States commissioned 30 surface combatants . . . The nearly 600-ship Navy of the late 1980s deployed only 15 per cent of the fleet on average.
在同一时期,美国服役了 30 艘水面战斗舰......。20 世纪 80 年代末,拥有近 600 艘舰艇的海军平均只部署了舰队的 15%。
Today, with fewer than 300 ships, the US Navy deploys more than 35 per cent to service its global missions, contributing to a material death spiral.
如今,美国海军只有不到 300 艘军舰,却要部署 35% 以上的军舰执行全球任务,这导致了物资的螺旋式下降。
So America is short on warships. But it is very long on rich people with big egos. An aircraft carrier would cost the richest American billionaires about the same fraction of their wealth as a trireme cost the richest Athenian aristocrats. So I say: bring back the liturgy!
因此,美国缺少军舰。但它却盛产自负的富人。一艘航空母舰将花费美国最富有的亿万富翁的财富,就像一艘三体舰花费最富有的雅典贵族的财富一样。所以我说:让礼仪回归!
The American rich already enjoy spending their money on exciting vehicles - yachts for the normies, rockets for the more ambitious, Titanic submersibles for the suicidal. Why not redirect this impulse towards public service?
美国富人已经喜欢把钱花在令人兴奋的交通工具上--普通人喜欢游艇,野心家喜欢火箭,自杀者喜欢泰坦尼克号潜水器。为什么不把这种冲动转向公共服务呢?
Imagine the fear it would strike into the hearts of the Chinese when the USS Musk enters Ludicrous Mode in the waters off the Taiwan Strait, with Elon himself at the wheel. Imagine how efficiently the USS Jeff Bezos will deliver its payloads! And does anyone doubt that billionaires - usually careful to avoid taxes - will jump at the chance to do this?
想象一下,当 "马斯克号 "进入 "鲁迪 库斯 模式",由埃隆亲自掌舵,在台湾海峡附近海域航行时, 中国人会感到多么恐惧。想象一下 杰夫-贝索斯号 将如何高效地 运送有效载荷!有谁会怀疑亿万富翁们--他们通常会小心避税--会抓住这个机会来做这件事呢?
The Athenians had a parallel liturgy for rich people who would select and sponsor theater productions, but I think we can skip this one for now.
雅典人还为那些会挑选和赞助戏剧作品的有钱人准备了类似的礼仪,但我想我们可以暂时跳过这一环节。
Make Sovereign Citizens Real
让主权公民成为现实
As President, I would encourage Congress to pass sweeping legislation rewriting the US tax code to have bizarre loopholes based on the difference between “legal” and “actual” people, with special reference to World War I and the beginning of income taxes in the 1910s.
作为总统,我将鼓励国会通过全面的立法,重写美国税法,根据 "合法 "和 "实际 "人群之间的差异,特别参照第一次世界大战和 1910 年代开始征收所得税的情况,设置奇特的漏洞。
These would include, but not be limited to:
这些活动包括但不限于
Legal documents that use someone’s names in ALL CAPS will refer to something subtly different than ones that use names in lowercase.
使用大写字母的法律文件与使用小写字母的法律文件所指的内容会有细微差别。Any court where there is a yellow fringe around the flag will be officially an Admiralty Court, whose rulings will only count insofar as their judges can link them to strained ship-related metaphors.
任何在国旗周围有黄色流苏的法庭都将正式成为海事法庭,其裁决只有在法官能够将其与紧张的船舶相关隐喻联系起来时才算数。Any black person who claims to be a citizen of Morocco (in some sense) will be bound by the rights and obligations listed in the US’ 1786 treaty with Morocco instead of normal citizenship laws.
任何声称自己是摩洛哥公民(在某种意义上)的黑人都将受到美国与摩洛哥签订的 1786 年条约中所列权利和义务的约束,而非正常的公民法。
If the US’ 1786 treaty with Morocco contains no clauses related to rights or obligations (which I am told is true) then I will renegotiate it to contain those clauses.
如果美国与摩洛哥签订的 1786 年条约中没有与权利或义务相关的条款(据我所知确实如此),那么我将重新谈判,使其包含这些条款。Accounts will be created in the name of every US citizen containing $630,000, which they can access only through extremely complicated legal-financial schemes.
将以每个美国公民的名义创建一个账户,账户金额为 63 万美元,他们只能通过极其复杂的法律金融方案来使用这些资金。
I will direct the executive branch to release confusing and contradictory documentation about all these things, hinting at their existence without acknowledging them outright or giving a clear guide to their use.
我将指示行政部门发布关于所有这些东西的混乱和矛盾的文件,暗示它们的存在,但不直接承认它们的存在,也不给出明确的使用指南。
Why? Because there are many existing tax loopholes and legal quirks, and nobody forms conspiracy theories or terrorist groups or right-wing militias around them.
为什么呢?因为现有的税收漏洞和法律怪圈很多,没有人围绕这些漏洞和怪圈形成阴谋论、恐怖组织或右翼民兵。
The feeling that they have secret information and are getting away with something fuels the modern sovereign citizen movement, who have been characterized as “dangerous”, “hurtful”, and “extremist”.
他们觉得自己掌握了秘密信息,可以逍遥法外,这种感觉助长了现代主权公民运动,他们被定性为"危险的"、 "伤人的"和 "极端的"。
Once sovereign citizenship is made real, it will lose its appeal.
Federal agencies will ensure that the procedures are so arcane that basically nobody ever succeeds at pulling them off, and will publish clear statistics (eg “only 0.001% of people who applied for a tax exemption based on their sovereign citizenship status get one”) which will further detract from its appeal.
The few people who continue to be interested will get their knowledge from the IRS website rather than far-right forums, denying extremist groups a key method of recruitment and organization.
Probably a few people will pass through the web of bizarre demands and successfully become exempt from paying taxes.
These people will have distinguished themselves by excellence in sticking to finicky rules even when lots of people are telling them it’s stupid to worry about it, and they will immediately be hired as inspectors to root out police corruption.
Fight Climate Change And Racism With Giant Statues
20% of CO2 emissions come from coal. But attempts to decrease reliance on coal have met political resistance.
The industry of some key swing states centers around coal mining, and despite calls that coal miners should “learn to code” or go into the caring professions, re-skilling them has proven difficult and they’re unwilling to go on welfare.
Some environmentalists have argued that we should buy coal mines to shut them down. Fearing job loss, states with coal mines have responded by making it illegal to own coal mines and not use them.
One environmentally friendly compromise would be to buy the coal mines, mine the coal, but not burn it. But then what do we do with all the coal?
I propose building giant statues of black people. Coal is already artistically suited for this, and it would help address our nation’s 300 year history of racial oppression.
If each statue were the size of the largest existing statue, the Statue of Unity in India, then it would take about five thousand statues to fully consume the US’ yearly coal production. Wikipedia’s List Of [Famous] African-Americans has about four thousand names, so that would only last us about one year. I would encourage more African-Americans to become famous, so we could continue using this solution to the environmental crisis.
Still, this would only buy us a few more years, and eventually we would have to think bigger. Mt. Rushmore (the whole mountain, not just the faces) is big enough that copying it would take twenty years of national coal production.
Given that all the faces on Rushmore are white, I propose a companion mountain on the opposite side of the observation plaza, “Mt. Racemore”, featuring Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, Henrietta Lacks, and Ibram X Kendi.
Probably this will also create jobs or something.
Universal Military Service For Datasets
Scandinavian countries are currently beating us in the all-important social science wars.
Their universal military service means they do psychological and medical tests on every 18-year old male in the country, which can then be correlated with various health and economic outcomes years later.
I propose one week of mandatory military service for all Americans, just long enough to give them the ASVAB and a couple of other instruments. This will also let everyone reminisce about “back when I was in the military…” and feel good for having served their country.
Also, everyone including Republicans supports free government-sponsored health care when it’s through the Veterans Affairs system, so we can just make all these people eligible for VA care and solve the healthcare crisis.
Appoint Governor Jim Justice To The Supreme Court
Jim Justice is the current governor of West Virginia. If he were on the Supreme Court, people would have to address him as Justice Justice. I believe that we as a nation can and should make this happen.
I would also work with the Bureau of Indian Affairs to see if we could get a tribe to appoint him as an honorary leader, in which case I would give him John Roberts’ job and he could become Chief Justice Chief Justice (or possibly Chief Chief Justice Justice).
Legalize Lying About Your College On Resumes
Colleges trap Americans in a cycle of burdensome loans and act to reinforce class privilege. I have previously advocated making college degree a protected characteristic which it is illegal to ask people about on job applications.
But this would be hard to enforce, and people would come up with other ways to communicate their education level.
So let’s think different: let’s make it legal to lie about your college on resumes (it is already not technically illegal to lie on a resume, but companies can ask for slightly different forms of corroboration which it is illegal to lie on). Everyone can just say “Harvard,” and nobody will have any unfair advantage over anyone else.
Start An Internet-Pop-Up Trade War With The European Union
For too long, Americans have groaned under the weight of foreign cookie-related-pop-ups which they and their elected representatives have no control over. It’s time to fight back.
When I am elected, I will mandate that all American websites serve popups to European Union residents explaining why the GDPR is annoying and why it affects even Americans who have no say in it.
If the Europeans want to be able to access Google, Facebook, Twitter, or any other US-based site without clicking “I understand” every time they reload it, they’ll have to pressure their government to do something about GDPR.
Appoint Donald Trump Constitutional Monarch
This would require a constitutional amendment, but I’m sure I could convince enough people.
The British experience suggests that the role of a constitutional monarch is to flaunt how rich they are, get 24-7 news coverage regardless of whether or not they do anything interesting, and have scandals.
Donald Trump is the best person in the world at all three of these things.
Trump wants to be on top, but is not that interested in governing. Meanwhile, American liberals (by revealed preference) want to continue thinking about him every hour of every day forever, but also don’t want him to govern. Constitutional monarchy would satisfy everyone’s preferences. If Trump is destined to destroy democracy - and everyone agrees that he is - let’s make it happen as gently and non-destructively as possible.
Obviously the royal family can’t participate in regular electoral politics, which means no Trump would ever be able to run for office ever again. This is the only way we are ever getting rid of them, you know this is true, please don’t throw away this chance.
I would support reverse primogeniture-based inheritance - ie the youngest son takes the throne - just so we can have a “King Barron”.
Minimum Wage Of $9,999,999/Hour For New York Times Journalists
New York Times journalists play a central role in the American information ecosystem, and I believe they deserve this.
Defuse The Culture War By Bringing Back Castrati
Religious organizations are leading the fight against puberty blockers and hormones for transgender children, arguing that they amount to “castrating” adolescents. This is a bizarre and ahistorical coalition: for hundreds of years, religious organizations were leaders in castrating young people, whose lack of puberty gave them supernaturally beautiful voices for singing in church choirs. The church originally resisted human rights activists’ call to stop the practice, but eventually gave in in the 1800s, admitting that lack of meaningful consent made the operation an abomination.
But the current political climate gives us an opportunity for a win-win deal. I propose that religious conservatives drop their opposition to puberty blockers for transgender youth. In exchange for the government funding all sex reassignment surgeries, young trans women will do two years of community service in religious choirs, allowing the Church to recapture 18th-century hymns that have fallen into disuse.
Clean The Statue Of Liberty
The Statue of Liberty is made of copper, and was originally a shiny orange-gold color. Over the years, it has tarnished to its current faded-green.
This is a little too on the nose as a metaphor for American society. As part of a general agenda of restoring liberty nationwide, I would order the Statue of Liberty cleaned until it is back to its original shining-gold state, and restored yearly thereafter.
A Vote For Me Is A Vote For Change
Together we can make America great again - which is not to imply I think it was ever better in the past - which is not to imply I don’t believe we’re currently at a time of unprecedented crisis. Sorry. Um. America has always been terrible and still is. But it could be better tomorrow!
The first step towards making this happen is getting me in the Republican and Democratic primary debates, which will require 65,000 unique donors. Governor Doug Burgum, who is independently wealthy, has promised that if you donate $1 to his campaign, he will give you a $20 gift card. I will soon be setting up a site where if you donate $2, it will give $1 to me, $1 to Doug Burgum, and he’ll still give you the gift card. That’s an $18 profit just by donating to my campaign!
But you can also take action in other ways. For the past fifty years, whoever won Ottawa County, Ohio, has won the overall election. So to stretch my limited resources more efficiently, I’ll be focusing my entire campaign on Ottawa County. Sure, some people say “causal reasoning doesn’t work that way”, but these are the same so-called “experts” who said Trump couldn’t win in 2016. So if you know someone in Ottawa County, please tell them about my ideas.
I am the only candidate who can credibly take on the elites. I have never served in government before and don’t even regularly watch the news. I have spent a total of about one week of my life in Washington DC, most of which was to participate in “The National Ocean Sciences Bowl” as a high school student. My team took second place, because taking first would have made me an elite, which I am not. That is my commitment to you. God bless America.
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P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.
For JUSTICE JUSTICE
until the inevitable military coup by major major major major
Gotta love a Catch 22 reference
Problem with a lotta the proposed candidates is they got flies in their eyes, that's probably why they can't see them.
I don't know, I think President (Sheldon) Whitehouse has a nice ring to it too. (He probably agrees.)
No, for GREAT JUSTICE JUSTICE.
In the UK: Igor Judge, Baron Judge was Lord Chief Justice a few years back. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Judge,_Baron_Judge
在英国:伊戈尔-贾奇,贾奇男爵几年前曾担任首席大法官。https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Judge,_Baron_Judge
Roger, Roger. 罗杰,罗杰
Huh? 啊?
What about voting rights for cats?
那猫的投票权呢?
Why would cats worry about participating in a democracy? They’ve always ruled by fiat.
猫为什么要担心参与民主呢?它们一直都是独裁统治。
Mine doesn’t care to participate, but Hemingway would like to know that he has the right. Not that it would apply to him anyway, he’s an anarcho-capitalist.
我的人不想参加,但海明威想知道他有这个权利。反正对他也不适用,他是个无政府资本主义者。
Well I suppose we could see what those 6 toed cats on Key West think.
我想我们可以看看基韦斯特的那些六趾猫怎么想。
That’s the cat’s name and where his grandfather hailed from.
这是猫的名字,也是它祖父的故乡。
An anarcho-catipulist? 无政府主义者?
Feral Finster, is that you??
Feral Finster,是你吗?
I'm not necessarily opposed to this, provided that cats are subject to the same 18+ age requirement as humans.
我并不一定反对这样做,只要猫和人一样,也要满足 18 岁以上的年龄要求。
For that matter, I'm open to the idea of allowing any cats who somehow manage live to the age of 35 to automatically become President.
因此,我对允许任何能活到 35 岁的猫自动成为总统的想法持开放态度。
A thirty-five year old cat would make better decisions than our current crop of geriatric Washington lifers.
一只三十五岁的老猫做出的决定会比我们现在这帮华盛顿的老寿星做出的决定更好。
That thing where today's humour becomes next year's serious policy.
今天的幽默变成了明年的严肃政策。
In practice the warship would end up having multiple sponsors all of whom demand that their name is included in the ship's eventual title.
在实践中,军舰最终会有多个赞助商,他们都要求将自己的名字列入军舰的最终名称中。
Rather like that old George Jones song.
就像乔治-琼斯的那首老歌。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywQHxhwYRAI
Oh and then the corporations would want in too
哦,那么企业也会想加入进来
USS Dunkin D anyone? 有人想知道美国海军邓肯 D 号吗?
R
I would unironically support the liturgy thing. It's not the worst idea.
我会毫不客气地支持礼仪这件事。这并不是最糟糕的想法。
I actually thought he was serious upon reading the liturgy idea. It should be adopted!
实际上,我在读到礼仪想法时还以为他是认真的。应该采纳!
I was reminded of the Greek cruiser Georgios Averof, funded by Georgios Averof.
我想起了由 Georgios Averof 出资建造的希腊巡洋舰 Georgios Averof 号。
Apparently it was also the first implementation of a Harberger tax, as if you claimed that one of your peers was wealthier than you (and therefore should be chosen instead), he would have the option of trading all of his property for all of yours.
显然,这也是哈伯格税的首次实施,因为如果你声称你的同伴中有人比你更富有(因此应该被选中),他就可以选择用他的全部财产换取你的全部财产。
Thus the incentive to not falsely underreport your wealth.
因此,不虚报少报财富就有了动力。
I think the last time that came up, people said it was historically dubious. There are records of people *offering* to make the trade, but it was probably just a rhetorical flourish with no expectation that such a trade could actually be effected.
我想,上一次有人提到这个问题时,人们说这在历史上是可疑的。有记录显示,有人**提议进行这种交易,但这可能只是夸夸其谈,并不指望这种交易能够真正实现。
(Not a historian, just speculating for fun)
(我不是历史学家,只是猜测而已)
I'm familiar with the idea, but I don't think that necessarily makes it dubious, as the purpose of it would be as a deterrent.
我对这个想法很熟悉,但我认为这并不一定会使它变得可疑,因为它的目的是作为一种威慑。
You wouldn't want to deal with the complicated fallout of actually having to carry it out, but the possibility of it keeps people at least somewhat more honest.
你不会想处理实际执行时的复杂后果,但这种可能性至少会让人们更诚实一些。
Zuckerberg in a toga and a tricorn hat.
扎克伯格身穿长袍,头戴三角帽。
Its not, but I think the left is strongly opposed to heaping social credit on billionaires for things they do with their money, even if those things are super great. Hence the charity is undemocratic thing.
其实不然,但我认为左派强烈反对把社会荣誉加在亿万富翁身上,因为他们用自己的钱做了很多事情,即使这些事情是超级伟大的。因此,慈善是不民主的。
What are the limits of that opposition though? A billionaire can get their name on a "public" hospital, but thats not a govt owned hospital. Can this only work then with a semi privatized military?
但反对的限度是什么?亿万富翁可以让自己的名字出现在 "公立 "医院上,但那不是政府所有的医院。那么,这只能在半私有化的军队中起作用吗?
While we're at it with Athenian laws, I'd like to have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphe_paranomon too.
在雅典法律方面,我也希望有https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphe_paranomon。
How about the Boule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boule_(ancient_Greece) ? Or more broadly, the general principle of selecting representatives randomly instead of with elections.
那么 Boulehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boule_(古希腊)呢?或者更广义地说,随机而非选举产生代表的一般原则。
The is an small modern political movement to make use of "citizens assemblies" based on their success in Athens and Venice (election of the doge), the idea being that there is no politicized election process, they are very difficult to corrupt compared to elected politicians (especially if anonymized), and they have a very good track record.
根据雅典和威尼斯(总督选举)的成功经验,现代有一场小型的政治运动要利用 "公民大会",其理念是没有政治化的选举过程,与民选政治家相比,公民大会很难腐败(尤其是在匿名的情况下),而且有非常好的记录。
Venice went hundreds of years of a form of democratic monarchy with no conflicts over succession, their doges served life terms with near absolute power (the exception being power to choose a successor or change the election process), and ultimately only ended for external reasons.
威尼斯实行了数百年的民主君主制,在继承问题上没有任何冲突,他们的主教终身任职,拥有近乎绝对的权力(选择继任者或改变选举程序的权力除外),最终只因外部原因而结束。
In the modern day, trial by jury provides a lot of real world evidence that small groups of randomly selected citizens are quite successful at making reasonable decisions.
在现代社会,陪审团审判提供了大量现实世界的证据,证明由随机挑选的公民组成的小团体在做出合理决定方面相当成功。
Obviously everyone can point to specific failures, but there are far more trials by jury in a given year than elections.
显然,每个人都可以指出具体的失败之处,但每年由陪审团进行的审判远远多于选举。
Citizen's assemblies also generally employ multiple rounds of deliberation to increase the number of jurors while still having the discussion take place in small groups, which should decrease the failure rate even further.
公民大会通常还采用多轮审议的方式来增加陪审员人数,同时仍以小组形式进行讨论,这应能进一步降低失败率。
And beyond corruption, the fact that jurors aren't held politically accountable for their decisions is ideal when popular sentiment differs from reality. Ireland in the 90s, a majority Catholic country, used a citizen's assembly to pass abortion rights.
除了腐败之外,当民众的情绪与现实不一致时,陪审员不需要为他们的决定承担政治责任也是理想的选择。上世纪 90 年代,天主教徒占多数的爱尔兰利用公民大会通过了堕胎权。
Had their politicians attempted to do this, they would anger their constituents and lose their seats next election, and had they made it a referendum it would have failed.
如果他们的政治家试图这样做,就会激怒他们的选民,并在下次选举中失去席位,如果他们将其作为全民公决,就会失败。
Regardless of your personal opinion on abortion, you must admit that its fascinating that the deliberation process genuinely changed the opinion of enough of the jurors to flip the majority.
无论你个人对堕胎的看法如何,你都必须承认,审议过程真正改变了足够多陪审员的观点,从而使多数票发生了变化,这一点很吸引人。
I ran the Trump-for-monarch plank past the most liberal members of my household, and they're for it. You may be on to something there.
我把 "特朗普换君主 "的想法告诉了家里最开明的成员,他们都表示支持。你可能说到点子上了。
(My favorite plank was funding warships by liturgy. We need the ships.)
(我最喜欢的板块是通过礼仪资助战舰。 我们需要战舰)。
Personally I’d go for Emperor of Saint Helena, but that’s just me.
我个人会选择圣赫勒拿岛皇帝,但这只是我的想法。
I have no faith in keeping Trump under control by making his constitutional monarch. He's find some way to use it.
我没有信心通过立宪君主来控制特朗普。他会想办法利用它的。
Yes, as we know the government is full of latent trump supporters desperately seeking ways to enact his will.
是的,正如我们所知,政府中充满了潜在的特朗普支持者,他们正在拼命寻找各种方法来实现特朗普的意愿。
I sort of understand what the deep state haters are on about when I think about how our border control and federal law enforcement and judiciary are mostly in the bag for Trump.
当我想到我们的边境管制、联邦执法和司法机构大部分都是特朗普的囊中之物时,我就有点明白那些仇视深层国家的人在说什么了。
Do you mean that the deep state consists of border control and federal law enforcement and judiciary?
你的意思是,深层国家包括边境管制、联邦执法和司法部门?
The deep state consists of everyone who is a career government official.
深层国家由所有职业政府官员组成。
These are part of it, and they help me understand how people might see this as potentially problematic rather than as a useful anti-corruption measure separating the operation of government from political patronage.
这些都是其中的一部分,它们帮助我理解了人们为何会将此视为潜在的问题,而不是将政府运作与政治庇护分离开来的有用的反腐措施。
Maybe revive the Republican Roman the office of the Rex Sacrorum, which is explicitly apolitical
也许可以恢复罗马共和时期的 "Rex Sacrorum "办公室,该办公室具有明确的非政治性。
Were the role of the president a ceremonial one, I'd have been happy to see Hillary win that, not least because of the prospect of her grinding her teeth in fury about not getting her hands on the levers of power and being simply Ceremonial First Presidentess.
如果总统的角色是礼仪性的,我倒是很乐意看到希拉里胜出,这不仅仅是因为她会因为无法掌握权力杠杆而愤怒得咬牙切齿,而且仅仅是礼仪性的第一女总统。
Now, she *would* be trying to find some way around using the position as one of real power.
现在,她**会想方设法利用这个职位的实权。
I've been saying that for years: Trump would be great in some ceremonial role where he got to be in the news all the time and treated like a Serious Person. If that's a monarch, so be it. This could be the Missouri Compromise of the 21st Century.
多年来我一直这么说:特朗普如果能担任一些礼仪性的角色就好了,这样他就能经常出现在新闻中,受到严肃对待。如果是君主,那就君主吧。这可能是 21 世纪的密苏里妥协。
As in, "led to civil war"? But if it takes 40 years, fine, I'll be dead anyway.
导致内战"?但如果要花 40 年时间,那好吧,反正我也会死。
Okay, maybe it could be Stuart Restoration of the 21st Century, then.
好吧,那就叫 "21 世纪的斯图亚特-雷斯特复辟 "吧。
Actually, your posts were funny, and mine was stupid. You can’t draw a line from 1820 to 1860, and anyway subsequent compromises departed drastically from the Missouri Compromise.
事实上,你的帖子很有趣,而我的帖子很愚蠢。你不能从1820年到1860年之间划一条线,而且无论如何,后来的妥协都与密苏里妥协大相径庭。
I hope I can find it within myself to forgive you, someday.
我希望有一天,我能在内心深处原谅你。
That also lead to civil war, just James Stuart ran away too fast.
这也导致了内战,只是詹姆斯-斯图亚特跑得太快了。
Moldbug often says Trump needs to be the Chairman of the country, not the CEO.
霉菌虫经常说,特朗普需要成为国家主席,而不是首席执行官。
I'm not saying anything about Trump, but I really do think we should abstract the ceremonial duties of the president from the legal ones and create something like a British figurehead monarch.
我不是在说特朗普,但我真的认为,我们应该把总统的礼仪职责从法律职责中抽象出来,建立一个类似英国人物君主的机构。
Honestly, if the President was the ceremonial head of state and the Vice-President was the one with power (like a prime minister), it might work a lot better.
老实说,如果总统是礼仪性的国家元首,而副总统是掌权者(就像总理),效果可能会好得多。
You'd avoid the problem of having a VP whose daily duties don't amount to much except "be ready in case the president drops dead or is assassinated" and figures like Trump and Biden could take on the mantle of Elder Statesmen and do all the ribbon-cutting and speech-making without anybody caring that you've got near-octogenarians in power.
这样就可以避免副总统的日常职责除了 "做好准备,以防总统去世或被暗杀 "之外没有什么其他职责的问题,而像特朗普和拜登这样的人物则可以继承老政治家的衣钵,负责所有的剪彩和演讲工作,而不会有人在意你的政权是由年近八旬的老人掌权。
I'm against it on two fronts, both of which boil down to me being unironically supportive (at least in principle) of Constitutional Monarchy.
我从两个方面反对君主立宪制,这两个方面归结起来就是我毫无讽刺意味地支持君主立宪制(至少在原则上)。
First, one of the major roles of a constitutional monarch in the British model is to provide a sort of adult supervision to the democratically-elected government.
首先,在英国模式中,君主立宪制的主要作用之一是为民选政府提供某种成人监督。
On a day-to-day basis, this takes the form of the power "to be consulted, to encourage, and to warn": i.e. the elected head of government has to regularly meet privately with the monarch (who has higher-status than the head of government and presumably has a long-term inside view of the high-level governance of the nation), explain himself to said monarch, and hear the monarch out with at least a token show of respect on the issues of the day.
在日常工作中,这种权力表现为 "被咨询、被鼓励、被警告 "的权力:也就是说,当选的政府首脑必须定期与君主私下会面(君主的地位高于政府首脑,并且可能长期掌握国家高层治理的内部情况),向君主解释自己的情况,并听取君主的意见,至少在当下的问题上表现出象征性的尊重。
In the longer term, the Monarch's reserve powers to prorogue the legislature, fire the head of government, veto legislation, etc are a final line of legitimate constitutional defense against an elected government abusing its position to subvert democracy.
从长远来看,君主拥有中止立法、解雇政府首脑、否决立法等保留权力,这是防止民选政府滥用职权颠覆民主的最后一道合法宪法防线。
This can easily be mistaken for being unimportant because the major reserve powers haven't been invoked in centuries, but that's like saying that the American nuclear arsenal is useless because we haven't used nuclear weapons against an enemy target in almost 80 years.
这很容易被误认为是不重要的,因为主要的储备力量已经有几个世纪没有被引用了,但这就好比说美国的核武库毫无用处,因为我们已经有近 80 年没有对敌方目标使用核武器了。
The implicit threat is there and acts as a meaningful constraint, and the explicit threat of the UK monarch's reserve powers may have been used as recently as October 2019 when there was a spate of articles about the possibility of the Queen firing then-PM Boris Johnson if he defied Parliament over the implementation of Brexit (I suspect this was an actual threat, not just idle speculation, since many of the articles were based on "sources close to" the Queen and the PM in a way that sounds like the usual token obfuscation of strategic trial-balloon and battlespace-preparation leaks to the media).
隐性威胁是存在的,并起到了有意义的制约作用,而英国君主保留权力的显性威胁可能在最近的 2019 年 10 月就被使用过,当时有大量文章称,如果时任英国首相鲍里斯-约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在实施英国脱欧的问题上藐视议会,女王可能会解雇他(我怀疑这是一个实际的威胁、因为许多文章都是根据 "接近 "女王和首相的 "消息来源 "撰写的,听起来就像通常象征性地混淆视听,向媒体泄露战略试验气球和战斗准备信息)。
Second, in order to be most effective, a constitutional monarchy should be deeply rooted in long-standing tradition, and the choice of monarch should be as firmly as possible established as a Schelling Point outside of the realm of recent partisan politics.
其次,君主立宪制要想发挥最大效力,就应深深扎根于悠久的传统之中,君主的选择应尽可能牢固地确立为近期党派政治之外的谢林点。
On the first point, I think Trump is conspicuously poorly suited to provide any sort of adult supervision to anyone, and in particular handing him strong reserve powers as a check on subversion of democracy by an elected head of government would be like putting Bernie Madoff in charge of anti-fraud regulation of the financial sector.
关于第一点,我认为特朗普显然不适合对任何人进行任何形式的成人监督,尤其是将强大的保留权力交给他来制衡民选政府首脑对民主的颠覆,就好比让麦道夫(Bernie Madoff)负责金融业的反欺诈监管。
On the second point, Trump is quite unsuited for the "long-standing tradition" aspect and is quite possibly the worst possible choice for the "outside of recent partisan politics" aspect.
关于第二点,特朗普很不适合 "悠久传统 "这一点,也很可能是 "近期党派政治之外 "这一点上最糟糕的选择。
No, if I had to choose a Constitutional Monarch for the US, my candidate would be much more deeply rooted in tradition. Not many people know this, but the colonies that would become the US actually did have a constitutional monarch up until the mid-1776s.
不,如果让我为美国选择一位君主立宪制君主,我的人选会更加根植于传统。知道这一点的人不多,但实际上,直到 1776 年代中期,后来成为美国的殖民地都有君主立宪制。
I looked up who would be our last King's heir, and it seems he's this rich, eccentric retired British naval officer named Charles Mountbatten-Windsor.
我查了一下谁会是我们最后一任国王的继承人,似乎是一位富有、古怪的英国退休海军军官,名叫查尔斯-蒙巴顿-温莎。
His personal life sounds rather messy, but he's apparently done some laudable stuff as a philanthropist. Or if Charles is too foreign for our tastes, his son Harry is apparently married to an American actress and currently lives in California.
他的私生活听起来相当混乱,但作为慈善家,他显然做了一些值得称赞的事情。如果查尔斯对我们来说过于陌生,那么他的儿子哈里显然已与一位美国女演员结婚,目前住在加利福尼亚。
One day, Erica; one day we will get them back....
总有一天,艾丽卡;总有一天,我们会把它们找回来的....
Make America Great Britain Again!
让美国再次成为伟大的英国
You gotta think long term though. Willie the Conqueror was just some crazy Viking and he certainly didn't come from a long line of legitimate kings of England. You gotta wait a thousand years or so 'til the days of Emperor Donald XXV before things eventually settle down.
不过你得从长计议。征服者威利只是个疯狂的维京人,他肯定不是英格兰正统国王的后裔。你得等上一千年左右,直到唐纳德二十五世皇帝的时代,事情才会最终尘埃落定。
Come up with a way for me to still be around a thousand years from now to see the upside and we can talk.
想个办法,让我在一千年后还能看到它的好处,然后我们再谈。
I feel this is a little unfair. William was descended from Vikings, but his family had been granted lands and titles in what is now France over a hundred years before. He wasn’t just some piratical Norse arriviste.
我觉得这有点不公平。威廉是维京人的后裔,但他的家族早在一百多年前就在现在的法国获得了土地和头衔。他并不是什么北欧海盗。
Eh, the Viking was strong in his family, but so was the connection to England. His great-great-grandfather took his great-great-grandmother as spoils of war. His great-grandfather did the "have her bathed and sent to my chambers" thing, except without the bathing part.
维京人的血统在他的家族中很强,但与英格兰的联系也很强。 他的曾曾祖父把他的曾曾祖母当作战利品。 他的曾祖父做了 "把她洗干净送进我的房间 "的事,只是没有洗澡那部分。
His grandfather ran too many Viking raids against England, so when King Aethelred came knocking, the grandfather bought him off with the great-aunt as second wife.
他的祖父发动了太多次维京人对英格兰的袭击,所以当艾特赫里德国王来敲门时,祖父就用大姑母作为第二任妻子把他收买了。
His father never bothered to marry, and attempted an invasion of England to put his older cousin Edward on the throne in place of his great-aunt's second husband's family.
他的父亲一直没有结婚,还试图入侵英格兰,让他的大表哥爱德华取代他大姨妈的第二任丈夫家族登上王位。
And when cousin Edward (the Confessor) got the throne later through natural attrition, they kept in touch.
后来,当堂兄爱德华(忏悔者)通过自然减员登上王位时,他们仍保持着联系。
William the Incredible Badass wasn't "just some crazy Viking", he's a Viking that channeled his Viking-ness into socially acceptable feudal conquest, and had blood connections to the last few kings of England.
令人难以置信的坏蛋威廉并不是 "一个疯狂的维京人",他是一个将维京人的特质转化为社会所接受的封建征服的维京人,并与英格兰最后几位国王有着血缘关系。
William's great-aunt Emma was the key.
威廉的大姨妈艾玛是关键。
Off the top of my head, she was wife of Aethelred the Unready, stepmother of Edmund Ironside, future daughter-in-law of Sweyn Forkbeard, wife of Cnut the Great, stepmother of Harald Harefoot, mother of Harthacnut, mother of Edward the Confessor, sister's mother-in-law to Harold Godwinson (Edward's wife's brother), and of course great-aunt to William.
在我的脑海中,她是埃特赫里德(Aethelred the Unready)的妻子、埃德蒙-艾伦赛德(Edmund Ironside)的继母、斯威恩-福克比德(Sweyn Forkbeard)未来的儿媳、克努特大帝(Cnut the Great)的妻子、哈拉尔德-哈雷福特(Harald Harefoot)的继母、哈萨克努特(Harthacnut)的母亲、忏悔者爱德华(Edward the Confessor)的母亲、哈罗德-戈德文森(Harold Godwinson)(爱德华妻子的兄弟)的姊妹婆婆,当然还有威廉的曾姑母。
Edward (later the Confessor) lived in exile with William's family from before William was conceived until William was about 14 or so, and they kept in touch afterward over the next 24 years or so.
从威廉出生前到威廉 14 岁左右,爱德华(后来的忏悔者)一直流亡在外,与威廉的家人生活在一起,此后 24 年左右,他们一直保持联系。
It is quite plausible that Edward wanted William to be his successor, rather than any of his wife's family.
爱德华希望威廉成为他的继承人,而不是他妻子的家人,这一点很有可能。
Isn't a monarch with powers inherently a subversion of democracy?
拥有权力的君主不就是对民主的颠覆吗?
>adult supervision %3成人监督
So, democratic leaders are less psychologically mature than non-democratic ones, or do I misunderstand you?
那么,民主领导人的心理成熟度不如非民主领导人,还是我误解了你?
I mean, they do tend to be physically younger. But I'm not convinced that the supposed benefits of putting old people in charge outweigh the risks of of having leaders that are less accountable to the public.
我的意思是,他们确实更年轻。但我并不认为让老人掌权的所谓好处会超过让领导人对公众不那么负责的风险。
I know Moldbug thinks that a monarchy is (theoretically) compatible with free speech. But the track record of actual monarchies say otherwise (see lèse-majesté).
我知道霉菌认为君主制(理论上)符合言论自由。但实际君主制的历史记录表明并非如此(见 "亵渎")。
BTW, I found this thread suggesting that at least a few Thai kings are against lèse-majesté: https://www.reddit.com/r/Thailand/comments/aqsu4f/are_you_afraid_of_lese_majeste_law_curious_how/ and that the real oppressor is the military. But I don't know what most kings (Thai or not) think and have thought about the subject. I think historically most have been for it.
顺便说一下,我发现这个主题表明至少有几位泰国国王反对 "诽谤罪":https://www.reddit.com/r/Thailand/comments/aqsu4f/are_you_afraid_of_lese_majeste_law_curious_how/,真正的压迫者是军方。但我不知道大多数国王(不管是不是泰国国王)是怎么想的。我认为从历史上看,大多数国王都是支持的。
Anyway, I'm rambling. 总之,我在胡言乱语。
>So, democratic leaders are less psychologically mature than non-democratic ones, or do I misunderstand you?
%3所以,民主领导人在心理上不如非民主领导人成熟,还是我误解了你?
Democratically chosen leaders have a lot of things going for them (accountability as you mention, plus consent of the governed and better alignment of policy preferences between the head of government and the median voter), which is a big part of why I (conceptually) favor a relatively weak 20-21st century British-style constitutional monarchy with an elected legislature and mostly-democratically-chosen head-of-government, but I strongly oppose the kind of near-absolute monarchy that Moldbug argues for.
民主选举产生的领导人有很多好处(如你提到的问责制,加上被统治者的同意,以及政府首脑与中位选民的政策偏好更加一致),这也是为什么我(在概念上)赞成 20-21 世纪英国式的君主立宪制,这种君主立宪制相对较弱,立法机构由选举产生,政府首脑大多由民主选举产生,但我强烈反对 Moldbug 所主张的那种近乎绝对的君主制。
That said, democratically-elected leaders do have shortcomings that can be mitigated by an undemocratic head of state.
尽管如此,民主选举产生的领导人确实有不足之处,而不民主的国家元首则可以弥补这些不足。
One is that democratically-elected leaders tend to be heavily self-selected for political ambition.
一个原因是,民选领导人往往会因为政治野心而大量自我选择。
In other words, I'm inclined to sympathize with the famous Hitch-hiker's Guide quote, "Those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it [...] anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job." A mostly-ceremonial head of state with rarely-used reserve powers, chosen by accident of birth, seems to be one of the more successful mitigations of this.
换句话说,我倾向于同情《搭便车指南》中的那句名言:"那些最想统治人民的人,当然也是最不适合做这件事的人[......]任何有能力让自己当上总统的人,无论如何都不应该被允许做这份工作"。一个因出生偶然而被选中的、拥有极少使用的保留权力的国家元首,在大多数情况下都是礼仪性的,这似乎是一种比较成功的缓解措施。
The other biggie is that democratically-elected leaders in two-party or multi-party systems (one party systems having rather nasty problems of their own that are outside the scope of this comment) tend to come to power as leaders of plurality or bare-majority factions, and they have a great deal of incentive towards sacrificing the interests of their opponents for the benefit of their supporters (i.e. tyranny of the majority) as well as angling for short-to-medium term political advantage in the next election even if that means sweeping problems under the rug for the next President to deal with.
另一个重要问题是,两党制或多党制(一党制本身存在一些相当棘手的问题,不在本文讨论范围之内)中的民选领导人往往是作为多数派或少数派的领导人上台执政的,他们有很大的动力为了支持者的利益而牺牲对手的利益(即多数暴政),并在下一次选举中争取中短期的政治利益,即使这意味着将问题掩盖起来,让下一任总统来处理。他们有很大的动力为支持者的利益牺牲对手的利益(即多数人的暴政),并在下一次选举中争取中短期的政治利益,即使这意味着将问题掩盖起来,让下一任总统处理。
Giving the head of government a measure of accountability (even just the weak social accountability of weekly meetings with the monarchy) to someone with a multi-generational long-term outlook can help mitigate this a bit.
赋予政府首脑一定程度的责任感(哪怕只是每周与君主会面这种微弱的社会责任感),使其具有多代人的长远眼光,可以在一定程度上缓解这一问题。
That said, British-style constitutional monarchy is far from the only successful mitigation of these problems. The American solution to the problem (division of powers between multiple elected power centers chosen by different mechanisms and constituencies to a mix of long and short terms of office, a hard-to-amend written constitution with substantive as well as procedural provisions, and an independent judiciary whose judges are appointed for life by the political branches of government) seems to be doing a pretty serviceable job; recent events suggest a need for tweaks on the margins, but not necessarily tossing the whole thing and starting over.
尽管如此,英国式的君主立宪制远非唯一成功缓解这些问题的办法。美国解决这一问题的办法(在由不同机制和选区选出的多个民选权力中心之间划分权力,混合使用长任期和短任期,制定一部难以修改的成文宪法,其中既有实质性规定,也有程序性规定,以及一个独立的司法机构,其法官由政府的政治部门终身任命)似乎做得相当不错;最近发生的事件表明,有必要在边际上进行调整,但不一定非要推倒重来。
And other countries seem to have gotten at least some of the benefits of a hereditary constitutional monarchy from a mostly-ceremonial elected head of state who serves much longer terms than than legislature or head of government.
而其他国家似乎至少已经从世袭君主立宪制中获得了一些好处,这些好处来自于一个大多具有仪式感的民选国家元首,他的任期比立法机构或政府首脑的任期要长得多。
It would be hard to argue that Britain over the past 100 years has been net better-governed than the US over the past 100 years. Britain had much worse economic outcomes despite a slight advantage in raw human talent. (2 IQ points).
很难说英国在过去 100 年里的治理水平净胜于美国。 尽管英国在原始人类天赋方面略胜一筹,但其经济成果却比美国差得多。(2个智商点)。
In 1913 the US was only 7% ahead of the UK in GDP per capita. Now it's 50% ahead. This has some pretty serious consequences for quality of life and probably far exceeds the importance of their minor differences in social policy.
1913 年,美国的人均 GDP 仅领先英国 7%。 现在则领先了 50%。 这对生活质量造成了相当严重的影响,其重要性可能远远超过两国在社会政策方面的微小差异。
Yes, that is a pretty significant prima facie piece of evidence against Britain being better governed than the US over the past 110 years, and it's worth digging a little deeper into how the GDP gap got so big.
是的,这是一个相当重要的初步证据,证明在过去的 110 年里,英国比美国治理得更好。
Off the top of my head, the first major suspect is that Britain was hit a lot harder than the US by WW1 and WW2. Britain was in both wars from 1914 and 1939 respectively, while the US sat on the sidelines until 1917 and 1941.
在我的脑海中,第一大疑点是英国在一战和二战中受到的打击要比美国严重得多。英国分别在 1914 年和 1939 年参加了这两场战争,而美国则在 1917 年和 1941 年之前一直袖手旁观。
Britain probably spent more money relative to pre-war GDP, suffered a lot more casualties, and was more impacted by loss.of pre-war trade with Germany.
相对于战前的国内生产总值,英国可能花费了更多的钱,遭受了更大的伤亡,并且受到了战前与德国贸易损失的更大影响。
And Britain's sea lanes were in range of (and the primary targets of) German U-Boats in both wars, while Britain's major cities were in range of German bombers in WW2 in particular.
在两次大战中,英国的海上通道都在德国 U 型潜艇的航程范围内(也是其主要攻击目标),而英国的主要城市尤其在二战中处于德国轰炸机的航程范围内。
As I commented on Scott's "1960: THE YEAR THE SINGULARITY WAS CANCELLED" SSC post, the final graph in the post (showing Britain's long-term trend of GDP grown) seems to show the key break in the trend right around 1914.
正如我在斯科特的 "1960 年:SSC 帖子中的最后一张图(显示了英国 GDP 增长的长期趋势)似乎显示了趋势在 1914 年前后的关键性中断。
A lot of this disparate impact was due to Britain's decision to put their country so close to Germany, which was already baked in long before 1913.
这种不同的影响在很大程度上是由于英国决定让自己的国家与德国靠得如此之近,而这早在 1913 年之前就已经注定了。
The other big factor was Britain's policy decision to join both wars from the start, which was only partially forced by geography: theoretically, Britain could have sat out the wars and let Germany win (at least in the West), but that probably would have been a bad move especially in WW2.
另一个重要因素是英国从一开始就加入两场战争的政策决定,这只是部分受地理因素所迫:从理论上讲,英国本可以置身事外,让德国赢得战争(至少在西方),但这可能是一个糟糕的举动,尤其是在第二次世界大战中。
There are also longer-term geopolitical strategy decisions, namely the decisions leading to Britain aligning with France and Russia against Germany and reinforcing to division of Europe into rival power blocks, for which Edward VII definitely deserves a substantial share of the responsibility.
此外,还有一些长期的地缘政治战略决策,即导致英国与法国和俄罗斯结盟对抗德国、强化欧洲分裂为敌对势力集团的决策,爱德华七世绝对应该为此承担相当大的责任。
The other is Britain's mid-century flirtations with socialism, which went considerably further than the New Deal and Great Society programs in the US, to the point of large scale outright nationalization of several major industries.
另一个例子是英国在上世纪中期对社会主义的调侃,它比美国的 "新政 "和 "伟大社会 "计划走得更远,甚至对几个主要行业实行了大规模的彻底国有化。
My sense is that this is more a matter of the mood of the electorate than of American checks and balances succeeding where British institutional restraints failed.
我的感觉是,这与其说是英国的制度约束失败了,不如说是美国的制衡机制成功了,这是选民情绪的问题。
And my understanding is that George V's personal rapport with Ramsey MacDonald went a long way towards successfully moderating the British Labour movement away from outright Marxism.
我的理解是,乔治五世与拉姆齐-麦克唐纳的个人关系在很大程度上成功地缓和了英国工党运动,使其摆脱了彻头彻尾的马克思主义。
I'm not sure what role if any George VI and Elizabeth II had on Labour's later evolution to its modern status as a regular centre-left party.
我不确定乔治六世和伊丽莎白二世对工党后来演变为现代正规的中左翼政党起到了什么作用。
But we probably can blame George V for enabling the nerfing of the House of Lords at beginning of his reign, removing a major institutional check on radical policy changes.
不过,我们或许可以归咎于乔治五世,因为他在即位之初就削弱了上议院的职能,从而消除了对激进政策变化的主要制度制约。
And we can probably also assign him a measure of responsibility for the Lloyd George ministry and the subsequent decline of the Liberal party, which helped elevate Labour to its status as the second major party.
对于劳合-乔治政府以及随后自由党的衰落,我们或许也可以将一定程度的责任归咎于他,是他帮助工党提升到了第二大党的地位。
As recently as 1980 the US was only 31% ahead of the UK in GDP PPP per capita so I don’t think the world wars deserve all the blame. I would guess half the present gap is due to lower economic freedom and the other half is due to world wars.
就在 1980 年,美国的人均 GDP(购买力平价)仅比英国高出 31%,因此我不认为世界大战应该受到全部指责。我猜目前的差距一半是由于经济自由度较低,另一半是由于世界大战。
I also think WWI involvement was an unforced error. They might have prevented it by avoiding entangling alliances or providing better adult supervision to the junior partners in their entangling alliances.
我还认为,卷入第一次世界大战是一个不可避免的错误。他们本可以通过避免纠缠不清的联盟,或为纠缠不清的联盟中的小伙伴提供更好的成人监督来避免战争。
Or they could have just sat out of WWI after it started and the eventual outcome would have been similar but not so bad for Germany that Germany starts WWII to get revenge.
或者,他们可以在一战开始后就置身事外,最终的结果也会类似,但不会对德国如此不利,以至于德国为了复仇而发动二战。
WWII was partly a consequence of the extremely unpopular treaty that was imposed on Germany after the war. Without which Hitler might not have been Hitler or might have not had enough support to form a coalition government in 1933.
二战的部分原因是战后强加给德国的条约极不受欢迎。 如果没有这个条约,希特勒可能就不是希特勒,也可能没有足够的支持在 1933 年组建联合政府。
Just a few fewer seats and he wouldn't have had enough to form a coalition with the other right wing party.
只要再少几个席位,他就不足以与另一个右翼政党组成联盟了。
I took a quick look at FRED data just now.
我刚才快速查看了 FRED 数据。
Their UK PPP data serieses all start in 1950 and end in 2010, but eyeballing the graph (US and UK GDPs, both in real US$ terms, scaled to 1950 = 100), it looks like the US economy grew faster for a burst in the late 60s and the UK economy has grown a bit faster since 1980ish, but apart from that the two countries have grown at pretty similar rates.
他们的英国购买力平价数据系列均始于 1950 年,止于 2010 年,但从图表(美国和英国的 GDP,均以实际美元计算,缩放至 1950 = 100)来看,美国经济在上世纪 60 年代末的一段时期内增长较快,而英国经济自 1980 年左右以来增长稍快,但除此之外,两国的增长速度相当接近。
This seems to point to whatever the difference was, it was already baked into the pie by 1950.
这似乎表明,无论差异是什么,在 1950 年时,它就已经融入了馅饼之中。
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=196Qw
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=196Rb
>I would guess it’s 50% socialism and 50% world wars.
我猜50%是社会主义,50%是世界大战。
That's what I would have guessed, too, although looking at the FRED data just now makes me update a bit towards the world wars having a larger impact than socialism.
这也是我的猜测,不过刚才看了 FRED 的数据,让我更倾向于世界大战比社会主义的影响更大。
>I also think WWI involvement was an unforced error. They might have prevented it by avoiding entangling alliances or providing better adult supervision to the junior partners in their entangling alliances.
我还认为,参与第一次世界大战是一个非故意的错误。他们本可以通过避免纠缠不清的联盟,或为纠缠不清的联盟中的小伙伴提供更好的成人监督来避免战争。
Quite possibly. I'm very sympathetic to the view that Britain badly bungled its European diplomacy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and the July Crisis in particular was full of mistakes and missed opportunities all around.
很有可能。我非常赞同这样一种观点,即英国在 19 世纪末 20 世纪初的欧洲外交中严重失误,尤其是七月危机更是错误百出、错失良机。
And I'm moderately sympathetic to Margaret MacMillan's argument that Britain should have sat it out, although given Britain's prior implicit commitments to France (which involved Sir Edward Grey as Foreign Minister writing a bunch of blank cheques over the preceding years on Britain's behalf while the King, the PM, the Cabinet as a whole, and Parliament all failed in their respective duties to supervise him) and Germany's violation of Belgian neutrality, I'd call it a forced error rather than an unforced one.
我对玛格丽特-麦克米伦(Margaret MacMillan)关于英国本应置身事外的论点略表同情,不过考虑到英国之前对法国的隐性承诺(其中包括爱德华-格雷爵士作为外交大臣在前几年代表英国开出了一大堆空头支票,而国王、首相、整个内阁和议会都没有履行各自的职责对他进行监督),以及德国对比利时中立国地位的侵犯,我认为这是一个被迫而非无奈的错误。
With the benefit of hindsight, the best moves for Britain in the July Crisis would be early on to press hard for international mediation publicly (as they did historically) while privately urging restraint on France and Russia (much more so than historically), and later in the crisis to make overtures directly to the Kaiser offering British neutrality in return for Germany honoring Belgian neutrality and keeping the High Seas Fleet out of the Channel.
事后看来,英国在七月危机中的最佳做法是在早期公开极力要求国际调停(与历史上的做法一样),同时私下敦促法国和俄国保持克制(比历史上的做法要克制得多),并在危机后期直接向德皇示好,以英国的中立来换取德国尊重比利时的中立并将公海舰队挡在英吉利海峡之外。
The latter aligns with the Kaiser's own instincts late in the crisis to overrule the military and pursue an East-first strategy, but historically Wilhelm allowed himself to be talked out of ordering this at the last minute.
后者与德皇本人在危机后期的直觉相吻合,即凌驾于军方之上,奉行东方优先战略,但从历史上看,威廉允许自己在最后一刻被劝说不要下令这样做。
>Hitler won the election on a knife’s edge and without that treaty giving him legitimate grievances to harp about he probably would have lost.
希特勒是在刀尖上赢得大选的,如果没有那份条约让他有正当理由抱怨,他可能早就输了。
My sense here is that Weimar Democracy had a ton of problems besides Hitler, and that even having the Nazis do a fair amount worse in the last couple elections wouldn't have saved it.
我的感觉是,除了希特勒之外,魏玛民主制还有很多问题,即使纳粹在最后几次选举中表现得更糟糕,也无法挽救魏玛民主制。
The liberal Weimar Coalition parties had lost quite a bit of popularity over the course of the 1920s and was increasingly divided at the 20s wore on (with the Center Party and DDP often splitting from the SDP and instead forming coalitions with the conservative/monarchist DVP more often than not), and by the early 30s the explicitly anti-democratic parties (NDSAP and KDP) had an outright majority in the Reichstag and the Weimar Coaltion parties all backed Hindenberg in the 1932 Presidential election rather than risk splitting the anti-totalitarian vote against Hitler and Thälmann.
自由派的魏玛联盟党在 20 世纪 20 年代失去了相当多的支持,并在 20 年代后期日益分裂(中心党和民主党经常从社会民主党中分裂出来,转而与保守派/君主主义的民主党结成联盟)、到了 30 年代初,明确反民主的政党(NDSAP 和 KDP)在国会中占据了绝对多数,魏玛联盟的所有政党都在 1932 年的总统选举中支持兴登堡,而不愿冒分裂反极权主义选票的风险来反对希特勒和泰尔曼。
Even if the Nazis hadn't taken power, my sense is that Weimar probably would have fallen to a nationalist military dictatorship or a Communist revolution at some point in the 30s without a very big change earlier on, and a milder Treaty of Versailles may not have been enough.
即使纳粹没有夺取政权,我的感觉是,如果不在早期进行非常大的变革,魏玛很可能会在30年代的某个时候倒向民族主义军事独裁或共产主义革命,而一份较为温和的《凡尔赛条约》可能还不够。
Granted, someone like von Papen as a military dictator would almost certainly have been better than Hitler (talk about damning with faint praise), although Thälmann's alignment with Stalin could have been pretty damn bad for the world had the KDP seized power and integrated a Communist Germany into an alliance with the USSR.
当然,像冯-帕本这样的军事独裁者几乎肯定会比希特勒更好(说到这一点,真是褒贬不一),不过,如果人民民主党夺取政权并将共产主义德国纳入与苏联的联盟,那么泰尔曼与斯大林的结盟可能会对世界造成非常糟糕的影响。
I notice I am confused because those FRED graphs show the last year with a much smaller gap than the present US/UK ratio of GDP PPP per capita. Those series might not be apples to apples. Here' an alternate data source: https://www.google.com/search?q=GDP+PPP+per+capita+uk
我注意到我很困惑,因为 FRED 的图表显示去年的差距比现在美国/英国的人均 GDP 购买力平价比率要小得多。这些系列可能不是苹果与苹果的对比。以下是另一个数据来源:https://www.google.com/search?q=GDP+PPP+per+capita+uk
Note that in 2007 the UK was fully caught up with the US, and then it fared much worse after the GFC. This seems like strong evidence against blaming the wars.
请注意,在 2007 年,英国的经济完全赶上了美国,而在全球金融危机之后,英国的经济表现要差得多。这似乎是反对指责战争的有力证据。
It's scaled to respective 1950 levels of each series: when the two lines intersect, that means the gap between US and UK per capita GDP is the same as it was in 1950, not that they have equal per capita GDPs.
它是按每个系列各自 1950 年的水平缩放的:当两条线相交时,意味着美国和英国的人均 GDP 差距与 1950 年相同,而不是说它们的人均 GDP 相等。
I did it that way partially to emphasize relative changes since 1950 (i.e. how much the gap have changed since then) while taking the existing gap in 1950 as a given, and partially because the two raw series were normalized to different anchors (2012 USD for the US line and 2005 USD for the UK line) so an absolute apples to apples comparison would have required extra steps I am too lazy to do right now.
我这样做的部分原因是为了强调 1950 年以来的相对变化(即自那时以来差距发生了多大变化),同时将 1950 年的现有差距作为给定值;另一部分原因是两个原始数据序列被归一化为不同的锚点(美国数据线的锚点是 2012 年美元,英国数据线的锚点是 2005 年美元),因此进行绝对的苹果对苹果比较需要额外的步骤,我现在懒得去做。
The argument against absolute monarchy is that the monarch is in no way guaranteed to be competent .. And is effectively iremovable.. The argument against constitutional monarchy is similar: the monarch is not guaranteed to be a genuine and handed dem ocrat.
反对绝对君主制的理由是,君主无法保证是称职的......而且实际上是不可罢免的。反对君主立宪制的理由与此类似:君主不能保证是一个真正的、手握重权的民主党人。
Consider a traditionalist government bribing the monarch with an enhancement of their own powers.
考虑一下传统主义政府通过加强自己的权力来贿赂君主。
I also oppose absolute monarchies, but I disagree about the arguments against them being deal-breakers for constitutional monarchies.
我也反对绝对君主制,但我不同意将反对绝对君主制的论点作为君主立宪制的突破口。
The point of a constitutional monarchy is for the flaws and virtues of a stronger monarchy and the flaws and virtues of pure republics to balance out in a way that mitigates the flaws of both while keeping most of the virtues of each.
君主立宪制的意义就在于,强大君主制的缺陷和优点与纯粹共和制的缺陷和优点之间的平衡,既能减轻两者的缺陷,又能保留各自的大部分优点。
If you want Meghan Markle to be Queen of the United States, I'd say you would deserve what you would get.
如果你想让梅根-马克尔成为美国王后,我想说这是你应得的结果。
I'd vote for President Camacho before that:
在此之前,我会投票给卡马乔总统:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RgG1Ayf4kI
I'd much rather have William and Kate than Harry and Meghan, but I'm having trouble thinking of a clear principle (other than "I like them better", which is contrary to the spirit of hereditary divine right monarchy) for skipping over Charles without also skipping William.
比起哈里和梅根,我更希望有威廉和凯特,但我很难想到一个明确的原则(除了 "我更喜欢他们",这有悖于世袭神权君主制的精神)来跳过查尔斯而不同时跳过威廉。
But with a choice between Harry and Meghan on one hand and Donald and Melania on the other, I know which pair I'd prefer.
但是,如果要在哈里和梅根以及唐纳德和梅拉尼娅之间做出选择,我知道我更喜欢哪一对。
But if you're letting me pick any Queen I want, I'm choosing Galadriel (actual canon Galadriel, not Rings of Power Galadriel, of course). She has the added benefit of being immortal, which solves the succession problem rather neatly.
但如果你让我随便选一个王后,我就选盖拉德丽尔(当然是真正的正统盖拉德丽尔,而不是 "力量之戒 "盖拉德丽尔)。她还有一个额外的好处,那就是她是不死之身,这就很好地解决了继承问题。
The main downside is that she's a fictional character, and hiring Cate Blanchett to play Galadriel again would only go so far at mitigating that.
主要的缺点是她是一个虚构的人物,请凯特-布兰切特再次扮演盖拉德莉尔只能在一定程度上缓解这一问题。
The bit where Harry and Megan are completely unable to predict blindingly obvious consequences of their actions, while being wildly entitled, suggests they'd make poor leaders.
哈里和梅根完全无法预测他们的行为会带来的显而易见的后果,而他们又自以为是,这一点表明他们会成为一个糟糕的领导者。
Shhhh, we're trying to get rid of the monarchy. At the moment anyone born in the UK is a British subject, not a citizen.
嘘,我们正试图废除君主制。目前,任何在英国出生的人都是英国臣民,而不是公民。
The distinction is crucial in understanding why nothing significant seems to happen in British society, we are all Crown subjects with no fundamental rights to free speech...
我们都是王室臣民,没有言论自由的基本权利......。
Help! 帮助!
I suspect your problem is with your constitution, not your monarchy. There are plenty of republics without free speech or meaningful citizenship status, and there are constitutional monarchies with free speech and meaningful citizenship status.
我怀疑你的问题出在宪法上,而不是君主制上。有很多共和制国家没有言论自由或有意义的公民身份,也有君主立宪制国家有言论自由和有意义的公民身份。
Some of the latter, e.g. Canada, actually have the exact same monarch as Britain.
后者中的一些国家,如加拿大,实际上拥有与英国完全相同的君主。
The trick, as far as I can tell, is to write down you constitution and put an explicit guarantee of freedom of speech in it.
据我所知,诀窍在于写下你们的宪法,并在其中明确保障言论自由。
It also helps if your voters and judges actually take the free speech clause seriously, since constitutions (written or otherwise) rely of humans to enforce their provisions.
如果您的选民和法官真正认真对待言论自由条款,这也会有所帮助,因为宪法(成文宪法或其他宪法)需要依靠人来执行其条款。
Easy to say... 说起来容易...
The reality of the British constitution is that it doesn't actually exist in any single codified form.
英国宪法的现实情况是,它实际上并不以任何单一的成文法形式存在。
This explains the state of play quite well
这很好地解释了目前的状况
https://consoc.org.uk/the-constitution-explained/the-uk-constitution/#what-are-the-disadvantages-of-having-an-uncodified-constitution
I am aware. That's why my policy recommendations for you guys lead with writing it down.
我知道。这就是为什么我对你们的政策建议首先是写下来。
And yes, that is easier said than done. We Yanks took thirteen years and two rounds of trying to get ours written down properly, and we're still arguing about what various important details therein mean almost 250 years later.
是的,说起来容易做起来难。我们美国人花了十三年时间,经过两轮努力,才把我们的东西写好,而几乎在 250 年后的今天,我们仍在争论其中各种重要细节的含义。
We need a revolution to get anyone interested in trying to properly codify the constitution. I'll keep you updated on any progress..
我们需要一场革命,让任何人都有兴趣尝试正确编纂宪法。如果有任何进展,我会随时向您汇报。
🤣
Best solution to Trump anywhere. Chief Justice Chief Justice is nice too. You can count on my vote.
是解决特朗普问题的最佳方案。首席大法官也不错。我投你一票。
We can't just hogtie him and use him as a doorstop for some really substantail door?
我们就不能把他绑起来,然后把他当做一扇门的挡板吗?
I think if we could, someone would have done it by now.
我想,如果我们能做到,早就有人做了。
I prefer the Chief Chief Justice Justice, especially once we see how he would rule, which would be Chief Chief Justice Justice justice. But only just.
我更喜欢首席大法官,尤其是当我们看到他如何裁决时,那将是首席大法官的正义。但只是公正。
In all seriousness, why don't we regularly clean the statue of liberty? Is this intentional/would be technically difficult or just another case Of New York being unable to maintain infrastructure?
说实在的,我们为什么不定期清洁自由女神像?这是有意为之,还是技术上有难度,抑或只是纽约无力维护基础设施的又一例证?
Isn't the Statue of Liberty made of copper and was expected and intended to turn into that greenish shade over the years?
自由女神像不是由铜制成的吗,难道人们没有预料到、也没有打算让它随着岁月的流逝变成这种绿色吗?
Yeah, it's like Cor-Ten steel, it's meant to look like it's covered in rust.
是啊,这就像 Cor-Ten 钢,看起来就像生了锈一样。
I heard that when it started turning green, there was a movement to clean it, but they never got enough money to do it.
我听说,当它开始变绿时,曾有过一场清理运动,但他们一直没有足够的资金来清理。
The kabbalistic implications are left as an exercise for the reader.
至于其中的卡巴拉意义,则留待读者自己去探索。
According to this roofing company https://jtcroofing.co.uk/news/why-does-copper-turn-green/ you can expect your shiny copper exposed to the elements to turn an ugly brown within months and an ugly brown-green within five years before eventually stabilising a dignified light green in twenty years.
根据这家屋顶公司https://jtcroofing.co.uk/news/why-does-copper-turn-green/的说法,你可以预期暴露在自然环境中的闪亮铜在几个月内会变成难看的棕色,五年内会变成难看的褐绿色,然后在二十年内最终稳定为庄重的浅绿色。
This roughly matches my observations on some copper domes I know that had panels replaced a while ago.
这与我对不久前更换过面板的一些铜穹顶的观察结果大致吻合。
The statue took years to make so it was probably already dull brown long before it was erected.
雕像的制作耗时多年,因此在竖立起来之前可能早已是暗棕色了。
I had heard from chemistry class that copper no longer turns green on account of lower air sulphur levels, and just stays brown now. Is that not true?
我从化学课上听说,由于空气中硫含量降低,铜不再变绿,现在只是保持棕色。这不是真的吗?
I was suspicious of this because atmospheric sulfur concentration surely varies from place to place, and what I found is that the rate of formation depends on sulfur and moisture levels, and in low sulfur areas it takes a few decades but can happen in five years in high sulfur areas.
我对此表示怀疑,因为大气中的硫浓度肯定因地而异,而我发现形成的速度取决于硫和湿度水平,在低硫地区需要几十年,但在高硫区可能五年就会发生。
https://www.worldcoppersmith.com/articles/copper-patina-information/#:~:text=However%2C%20this%20is%20just%20a,within%20five%20to%20seven%20years.
https://www.worldcoppersmith.com/articles/copper-patina-information/#:~:text=However%2C%20this%20is%20just%20a,within%20five%20to%20seven%20years。
Seems unlikely. The green is some kind of hydroxycarbonate stuff, that is, first you get oxides and then slowly water and CO2 react with that to get something similar to (but not chemically identical) to malachite.
似乎不太可能。绿色是某种羟基碳酸盐的东西,也就是说,首先你会得到氧化物,然后慢慢地水和二氧化碳与之发生反应,得到与孔雀石类似(但化学性质不完全相同)的东西。
Copper sulfide is black and the sulfite is unstable while the sulfate is water soluble... so the only stable sulfur-based coating would be the sulfide, and I think you'd only get that if you were next to a paper mill or something.
硫化铜是黑色的,亚硫酸盐不稳定,而硫酸盐可溶于水......所以唯一稳定的硫基涂层就是硫化物,我想只有在造纸厂或其他地方才会有这种涂层。
SO2 and SO3 in the air could certainly hasten the process of patination by reacting with the oxide coating though.
不过,空气中的二氧化硫和三氧化硫肯定会与氧化物涂层发生反应,从而加速锈蚀过程。
There's a building close to where I work that has a wooden roof painted in an ugly greenish-brown to look like fading copper. Somehow or other, that's supposed to be a good thing.
我工作的地方附近有一栋楼,它的木屋顶被漆成了难看的绿褐色,看起来就像褪色的铜。不知为什么,这应该是件好事。
it would get thinner and thinner every time until it was destroyed. honestly I don't know and would be interested to learn how fast it would happen.
老实说,我不知道,也很想知道它的速度有多快。
A youtuber must be on it by now.
现在一定有优酷用户在看了。
Copper patina is about 0.07mm. The surface of the statue of liberty is made of copper sheet only 2.4mm thick.
铜锈约为 0.07 毫米。自由女神像的表面由厚度仅为 2.4 毫米的铜板制成。
Let's say it's twice as thick as it needs to be structurally, and we can remove the patina perfectly gently. We'd have 17 cleanings before it fell apart, max.
比方说,它的厚度是结构所需的两倍,而我们可以非常轻柔地去除铜锈。在它散架之前,我们最多可以清理 17 次。
Wow that's faster than I thought
哇,比我想象的还要快
The flame in the torch is still shiny because they covered it with gold leaf in the 1980's. We could probably do the same to the whole statue for less than recurrent cleaning costs.
火炬中的火焰仍然闪闪发光,是因为他们在上世纪 80 年代用金箔覆盖了它。我们也许可以对整个雕像做同样的处理,而花费的费用却不会超过经常性的清洁费用。
A giant gold statue sounds a bit tacky.
巨大的黄金雕像听起来有点俗气。
But hear me out -- a gold-plated coal-filled statue of Donald Trump.
但请听我说完--唐纳德-特朗普的镀金煤炭雕像。
Gaudy on the outside, black and sooty on the inside. I like it.
+1
There's the obvious risk that a group of informed citizens would be tempted to burn it in their next round of peaceful protests.
A gold-plated PERPETUALLY BURNING statue of Donald Trump!
Get the guy who did the Viareggio carnival float. He knows how to be suitably grandiose:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lv1FE88JVps
According to the national park service, the oxidation has penetrated half of the total thickness already, so you'd probably have to replace panels as early as the first clean-up.
OTOH, it's already 150 years old, so not that fast…
https://www.nps.gov/stli/planyourvisit/get-the-facts.htm
I'd heard that people got used to the green and opposed a movement to clean it early on.
Copper things are usually intended to look this shade of green.
I’ll be that guy. It’s called verdigris. Most copper or bronze statues become this color unless a clear coat of some sort is added.
If it’s a statue of a guy on a horse it usually ends up looking like Robert E Lee. If it’s a standing or seated man with a beard if usually ends up looking like V I Lenin.
My understanding is that yes, cleaning the statue would be technically difficult. The sheets of copper forming the outer structure aren't especially thick, and the layer of corrosion is more than just a thin film. If you cleaned it off, there's a risk of putting holes in the actual structure, and the more times you clean it off, the thinner and more vulnerable it's going to get.
I have no clue if this has anything to do with it, but jurisdiction over this area is complicated as hell. The island is entirely federally-owned and maintenance is supposed to be the responsibility of the national park service. The land is part of the state of New York, but all of the surrounding waters are part of the state of New Jersey. New York City provides mail service and has the right to collect sales tax from the souvenir shops. Jersey City provides sewage, water, and electricity.
I once had to polish a brass fitting on the outside of a ship. I got it from green to shiny gold-ish, and it was back to the exact same shade of green the next morning.
There's a chapter about this in Rust (Waldman 2016). Patina is adherent, and is one of the better corrosion products for protection against atmospheric corrosion (not applicable in seawater). It's not as good as aluminium oxide, but it's way better than iron oxide. It's also pretty and iconic.
I believe there's a sacrificial system inside it that tries to galvanically protect the statue but I'm not 100% on that (and also, unsure if cathodic protection works without electrolyte - I'll have to look up what it was).
Overall the structure is in shockingly good condition given how saline the environment must be. Modern steel looks worse at a third of the age.
" reverse primogeniture-based inheritance" has a name.
It's called "ultimogeniture", which does sound very cool indeed.
Found the Crusader Kings player?
Well, yes. But I play Crusader Kings because I'm a medieval history nerd, not the other way around.
I just finished "A Distant Mirror." Any other good medieval history books you'd recommend?
Have you read The Greatest Knight by Thomas Asbridge? A biography of William Marshall. I'm only about 100 pages in, but a good overview of The Anarchy, the reign of Henry II, knighting in general, and of course Marshall's role in it all.
Oh that looks interesting, thanks!
The Civilization of the Middle Ages by Norman Cantor, The Shorter Cambridge Medieval History Vols. I and II (no one's ever going to be able to prove that you haven't read it), The Discarded Image by C.S. Lewis (not history, but a short overview of medieval cosmology and philosophy).
The books that got me into medieval history were John Julius Norwich's books on Byzantium, Venice, and on the Normans in Italy. They are of a similar age to the Tuchman, so they obviously don't have the most recent scholarship.
The titles are:
The Normans in the South
The Kingdom in the Sun
Venice: The Rise to Empire
Venice: The Greatness and Fall
Byzantium: The Early Centuries
Byzantium: The Apogee
Byzantium: The Decline and Fall
> They are of a similar age to the Tuchman, so they obviously don't have the most recent scholarship
This might be an excessively specific question, but do you happen to know if there have been major changes in our understanding of the 14th century since Tuchman's book?
14th century western Europe is so not my area, so no, I don't know.
Most of my medieval interest is earlier and more eastern.
IIRC Tuchman's book is itself based on just reading Froissart to a greater degree than one might ideally like, but it was a long time ago and I could be way off-base on that.
Personally, I think reading the contemporary chronicles is way underrated as a source of entertainment and information. Sure, the numbers are often way, way off, but that just gives academics a source of employment in bitching about it.
My personal favorites are the History of the Franks of Gregory of Tours, and Froissart's chronicles of the Hundred Years' War.
Would ultimogeniture ever come up in the study of medieval history? It does not appear to have been used by any medieval country, which makes sense given that it has some fairly severe drawbacks and no benefits compared to primogeniture.
Disagree! There are a number of argument in favour of long reigns (although democratic governments seem to stink if they stick around too long, the stability benefits of very long-lived monarchs seems to outweigh the 'too long in power' effect), and ultimogeniture would create longer reigns. The opposite of ultimogeniture isn't primogeniture, it's the next-of-male-kin rules in many Arab countries, where your 90-year-old king dies, then his 89-year-old brother takes over, then he dies, then...
Yup, Crusader Kings II has this one, called "Seniority".
> the stability benefits of very long-lived monarchs
Very long-lived monarchs provide stability while they're on the throne, but they also supply a big spike of instability when they die. It is not necessarily advantageous to concentrate all your instability into a narrow window of time; there was an Egyptian dynasty that seems to have fallen for this reason. (When Pepi II died after a reign of many decades.)
> The opposite of ultimogeniture isn't primogeniture, it's the next-of-male-kin rules in many Arab countries
So? Does this respond to something I said?
Primogeniture has the advantages over ultimogeniture that (1) everyone knows what to expect; (2) You can start training the heir as soon as he's old enough to receive any training, because you know who he is; and (3) older people command more respect from everyone else in the world than younger people do. There is no difference in heir quality compared to ultimogeniture - it will often be the case that the youngest son is superior to the oldest son, but both inheritance systems choose the heir in advance when that information is unavailable. (In contrast, other systems may allow the king to nominate his own heir, in which case the average quality of heirs should go up.)
Ultimogeniture works better in CK because you can predict ability from birth and it's fairly easy to decide to have another child until you get a good one and then stop in the game (you can adopt celibacy or divorce your wife, etc).
Both of those are untrue in the real world.
Since I just noticed it, I need to point out that while 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 is spelled with an O due to the irregular Latin adverb 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘰, 𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 appears to be malformed - the Latin adverb there is 𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘶𝘮, not 𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘰, and epenthetic -o- is a feature of Greek, not Latin. (If you wanted to supply a vowel between two roots that would otherwise connect awkwardly in Latin, that vowel would be -i-, as in Lucifer.) This is another piece of minor evidence suggesting that in historical practice no one ever bothered with the system (or else it might have had a different name).
I don't think I got my question answered of whether a medieval history nerd with no knowledge of Crusader Kings would have any reason to know the word?
(Another reason ultimogeniture looks bad in reality is that you run into scenarios like a two-year-old inheriting the throne while his twenty-year-old brother thinks "how hard could it be to usurp a two-year-old?")
The only case I can think of where ultimogeniture was used was the "Borough English" inheritance in certain boroughs of England - IIRC, Nottingham was one. Obviously, that's inheritance to property, not the royal title, though.
But yes, that's not referred to as "ultimogeniture" contemporaneously. A little hunting says that dictionaries date the word to 1882. Primogeniture is many centuries older (c. 1600 in English, but goes back to Late Latin)
And yes, I knew the word from CK, though it's the obvious formation modelled on primogeniture - it's clearly named by people for whom Latin/Greek were not everyday languages.
The only methods used by monarchies for choosing between multiple sons that I can think of are primogeniture, the father selecting, some sort of council selecting, partible inheritance, and porphyrogeniture (preference to sons born while the father was king over those born before the father was king)
There's also "only surviving son inherits after killing all his brothers".
That is not a method for choosing between multiple sons.
I think (CK2 my only experience) that you could get ultimogeniture passed as law more easily, which probably reflects it being less stable (and more popular with vassals)
Ultimogeniture for property (but not necessarily rulership) was a Mongol feature when Genghis Khan died toward the end of the medieval period - his youngest son was regent for a couple of years after dad died until an older brother officially succeeded as Khan.
I'm glad someone else has already pointed this out.
It also sounds like a brand of plastic surgery for private parts.
Hear me out: nuclear disarmament through selling ad space on the moon.
Initiate an international treaty whereby companies can buy a certain number of warheads to detonate on the lunar service to inscribe their company logo for eternity.
Enjoy the full moon, brought to you by McDonalds.
There’s a A C Clarke short story that involved the the threat of putting the 7 Up logo on the moon. I think it was “Watch this Space”
I hate when people have my ideas before I have an opportunity to come up with them.
Eh, you can always just tell yourself your version would have been better than Clarke's if you'd written it.
As in 'The Anticipator' by Morley Roberts (and referenced by Arthur C Clarke)?
"Anticipatory plagiarism occurs when someone steals your original idea and publishes it a hundred years before you were born."
Man, what a way to be victimized by someone in the past before they could have even done it on purpose.
Robert Heinlein, "The Man Who Sold the Moon". Moka Cola is convinced to gain publicity by blocking 6+ from using powdered carbon to inscribe their logo on the moon.
I was almost able to write that from memory, with Mocha Cola as the only mistake. Sometimes I wonder whether I'd be better off if I knew something else as well as I know classic science fiction.
No guarantee that it wouldn't be something else of comparable utility, like an encyclopedic memory of the first decade of The Simpsons.
...speaking from experience.
One of the smartest people I know is a physician with an encyclopedic knowledge of both his medical subspecialty and the first decade of The Simpsons.
For me it’s Wheel of Time. I know way too much about the One Power.
RIP
There's an issue of the comic The Tick in which a supervillian, Chairface, uses a laser to start writing his name on the moon. He got three letters in before he was stopped.
Paging Chairface Chippendale!
I don’t know the comic but it reminds me of the weird Minnesota practice of naming Snow Plows.
Meet Plowy McPlowface:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox9.com/news/plowy-mcplowface-ready-for-action-on-minnesota-roads.amp
I think defacing the moon would be taken as a casus belli by quite a large number of people. I wouldn't really even condemn them for taking it that way.
Unlikely to lead to disarmament of any kind.
Yeah, but what if every full moon there was a QR code that got you a buy one get one at Starbucks?
Add in a free brownie and I'm there!
Operation Plowshare, but for digging to the core of the moon. I swear there must be high-value minerals down there.
This is an actually good idea. It has no place here.