Trump Won. Now What? 特朗普赢了。现在怎么办？

Donald Trump has won, and will become president for the second time. Those who voted for him will now celebrate their victory. The rest of us need to prepare to live in a different America: a country where millions of our fellow citizens voted for a president who knowingly promotes hatred and division; who lies—blatantly, shamelessly—every time he appears in public; who plotted to overturn an election in 2020 and, had he not won, was planning to try again in 2024.
唐纳德·特朗普赢了，将第二次成为总统。投票支持他的人现在将庆祝他们的胜利。我们其余的人需要准备在一个不同的美国生活：一个数百万同胞投票支持一个明知传播仇恨和分裂的总统的国家；一个每次公开露面时都公然、无耻地撒谎的总统；一个在 2020 年策划推翻选举的总统，如果他没有赢，计划在 2024 年再试一次。

Above all, we must learn to live in an America where an overwhelming number of our fellow citizens have chosen a president who holds the most fundamental values and traditions of our democracy, our Constitution, even our military in contempt. Over the past decade, opinion polls have showed Americans’ faith in their institutions waning. But no opinion poll could make this shift in values any clearer than this vote. As a result of this election, the United States will become a different kind of country.
最重要的是，我们必须学会在一个绝大多数公民选择了一位对我们民主、宪法甚至军队的最基本价值观和传统持蔑视态度的总统的美国生活。在过去十年中，民意调查显示美国人对其机构的信任正在减弱。但没有任何民意调查能比这次投票更清楚地表明这种价值观的转变。由于这次选举，美国将成为一个不同类型的国家。

When he was last in the White House, the president-elect ignored ethics and security guidelines, fired inspectors general and other watchdogs, leaked classified information, and used the Department of Homeland Security in the summer of 2020 as if it were the interior ministry of an authoritarian state, deploying U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Coast Guard “troops” in American cities. Trump actively encouraged the January 6, 2021, insurrection at our Capitol. When he left the White House, he stole classified documents and hid them from the FBI.
当他最后一次在白宫时，候任总统无视伦理和安全指南，解雇了监察长和其他监督机构，泄露了机密信息，并在 2020 年夏季将国土安全部当作一个专制国家的内政部，派遣美国海关和边境保护局及海岸警卫队的“部队”进入美国城市。特朗普积极鼓励了 2021 年 1 月 6 日我们国会大厦的叛乱。当他离开白宫时，他偷走了机密文件并将其藏匿于联邦调查局。

Because a critical mass of Americans aren’t bothered by that list of transgressions, any one of which would have tanked the career of another politician, Trump and his vice president–elect, J. D. Vance, will now try to transform the federal government into a loyalty machine that serves the interests of himself and his cronies. This was the essence of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, and its architects, all Trump fans, will now endeavor to make it become reality. Trump will surely try again to dismantle America’s civil service, replacing qualified scientists and regulators with partisan operatives. His allies will help him build a Department of Justice that does not serve the Constitution, but instead focuses on harassing and punishing Trump’s enemies. Trump has spoken, in the past, of using the Federal Communications Commission and the Internal Revenue Service to punish media organizations and anyone else who crosses him, and now he will have the chance to try again.
由于一大批美国人对那份违规清单毫不在意，而其中任何一项都足以毁掉其他政治家的职业生涯，特朗普和他的副总统候选人 J.D.范斯现在将试图将联邦政府转变为一个忠诚机器，以服务于他自己和他的亲信的利益。这正是遗产基金会的 2025 项目的本质，其所有设计者都是特朗普的支持者，现在将努力使其成为现实。特朗普肯定会再次尝试拆解美国的公务员制度，用党派干预者取代合格的科学家和监管者。他的盟友将帮助他建立一个不服务于宪法的司法部，而是专注于骚扰和惩罚特朗普的敌人。特朗普过去曾谈到利用联邦通信委员会和国税局来惩罚媒体组织和任何其他与他作对的人，现在他将有机会再次尝试。

Read: The Democrats’ dashed hopes in Iowa

Perhaps the greater and more insidious danger is not political repression or harassment, but corruption. Autocratic populists around the world—in Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela—have assaulted institutions designed to provide accountability and transparency in order to shift money and influence to their friends and families, and this may happen in America too. This is not just a theoretical threat. As loyalists take over regulatory agencies, filling not only political but also former civil-service jobs, American skies will become more polluted, American food more dangerous. As a result of this massive shift in the country’s bureaucratic culture, Trump-connected companies will prosper, even as America becomes less safe for consumers, for workers, for children, for all of us.
或许更大、更隐蔽的危险不是政治压制或骚扰，而是腐败。世界各地的专制民粹主义者——在匈牙利、土耳其、委内瑞拉——攻击旨在提供问责和透明度的机构，以便将资金和影响力转移给他们的朋友和家人，这在美国也可能发生。这不仅仅是一个理论威胁。随着忠诚者接管监管机构，不仅填补政治职位，还填补前公务员职位，美国的天空将变得更加污染，美国的食品将变得更加危险。由于国家官僚文化的这种巨大转变，与特朗普相关的公司将繁荣发展，即使美国对消费者、工人、儿童以及我们所有人来说变得不那么安全。

American foreign policy will also reflect this shift toward kleptocracy. In his first term, Trump abused the powers of his office, corrupting American foreign policy for his personal gain. He pressured the Ukrainian president to launch a fake investigation of his political opponent; altered policy toward Turkey, Qatar, and other nations in ways that suited his business interests; even used the Secret Service to funnel government money to his private properties. In a second term, he and the people around him will have every incentive to go much further. Expect them to use American foreign policy and military power to advance their personal and political goals.
美国的外交政策也将反映这种向贪腐政权的转变。在他的第一任期内，特朗普滥用职权，为个人利益腐化了美国的外交政策。他施压乌克兰总统启动对其政治对手的虚假调查；改变了对土耳其、卡塔尔和其他国家的政策，以符合他的商业利益；甚至利用特勤局将政府资金转移到他的私人财产。在第二任期内，他和他周围的人将有充分的动机进一步加大力度。预计他们将利用美国的外交政策和军事力量来推动个人和政治目标。

There are many things a reelected President Trump cannot do. But there are some things he can do. One is to cut off aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration has three months to drop all half measures and rush supplies to Ukraine before Trump forces a Ukrainian surrender to Russia. If there’s anything in the American arsenal that Ukraine might successfully use—other than nuclear weapons—send it now, before it’s too late.
有许多事情，连任的特朗普总统无法做到。但他可以做一些事情。其中之一是切断对乌克兰的援助。拜登政府有三个月的时间来放弃所有半途而废的措施，并迅速向乌克兰提供补给，以免特朗普迫使乌克兰向俄罗斯投降。如果美国的武器库中有乌克兰可能成功使用的任何东西——除了核武器——请现在就发送，趁还不算太晚。

Another thing Trump can do is to impose further tariffs—and intensify a global trade war not only against China but also against former friends, partners, and allies. America First will be America Alone, no longer Ronald Reagan’s “city on a hill,” but now just another great power animated by predatory nationalism.
特朗普可以做的另一件事是进一步征收关税——并加剧一场全球贸易战，不仅针对中国，还针对以前的朋友、合作伙伴和盟友。美国优先将是孤独的美国，不再是罗纳德·里根所说的“山上的城市”，而只是另一个被掠夺性民族主义驱动的大国。

Around the world, illiberal politicians who seek to subvert their own democracies will follow America’s lead. With no fear of American criticism or reaction, expect harassment of press and political opponents in countries such as Mexico and Turkey to grow. Expect the Russian-backed electoral cheating recently on display in Georgia and Moldova to spread. Expect violent rhetoric in every democracy: If the American president can get away with it, others will conclude that they can too. The autocratic world, meanwhile, will celebrate the victory of someone whose disdain for the rule of law echoes and matches their own. They can assume that Trump and Vance will not promote human rights, will not care about international law, and will not reinforce our democratic alliances in Europe and Asia.
在全球范围内，寻求颠覆自己民主制度的非自由派政治家将效仿美国的做法。在没有对美国批评或反应的恐惧下，预计墨西哥和土耳其等国对媒体和政治对手的骚扰将加剧。预计最近在乔治亚和摩尔多瓦展示的俄罗斯支持的选举舞弊将蔓延。预计每个民主国家的暴力言论将增加：如果美国总统可以逍遥法外，其他人也会得出他们可以这样做的结论。与此同时，专制世界将庆祝一个对法治的蔑视与他们自己的相呼应的人的胜利。他们可以假设特朗普和范斯不会促进人权，不会关心国际法，也不会加强我们在欧洲和亚洲的民主联盟。

But the most difficult, most agonizing changes are the ones that will now take place deep inside our society. Radicalization of a part of the anti-Trump camp is inevitable, as people begin to understand that existential issues, such as climate change and gun violence, will not be tackled. A parallel process will take place on the other side of the political spectrum, as right-wing militias, white supremacists, and QAnon cultists are reenergized by the election of the man whose behavior they have, over eight years, learned to imitate. The deep gaps within America will grow deeper. Politics will become even angrier. Trump won by creating division and hatred, and he will continue to do so throughout what is sure to be a stormy second term.
但最困难、最痛苦的变化将发生在我们社会的深处。反特朗普阵营的一部分激进化是不可避免的，因为人们开始意识到气候变化和枪支暴力等生存问题将无法得到解决。在政治光谱的另一端，右翼民兵、白人至上主义者和 QAnon 邪教信徒也将因选举出那个他们在八年中学会模仿的人的行为而重新获得活力。美国内部的深层裂痕将变得更加深刻。政治将变得更加愤怒。特朗普通过制造分裂和仇恨赢得了胜利，他将在注定动荡的第二个任期内继续这样做。

David A. Graham: The institutions failed
大卫·A·格雷厄姆：机构失败了

⁠⁠My generation was raised on the belief that America could always be counted upon to do the right thing, even if belatedly: reject the isolationism of America First and join the fight against Nazism; fund the Marshall Plan to stop communism; extend the promise of democracy to all people, without regard to race or sex. But maybe that belief was true only for a specific period, a unique moment. There were many chapters of history in which America did the wrong thing for years or decades. Maybe we are living through such a period now.
我的一代人是基于这样的信念成长起来的：美国总是可以被信赖去做正确的事情，即使是迟来的：拒绝“美国优先”的孤立主义，加入反对纳粹主义的斗争；资助马歇尔计划以阻止共产主义；向所有人承诺民主，而不考虑种族或性别。但也许这种信念只在特定时期、独特时刻才是真实的。在历史的许多篇章中，美国多年来或几十年做了错误的事情。也许我们现在正生活在这样一个时期。⁠⁠

Or maybe the truth is that democracy is always a close-run thing, always in contention. If so, then we too must—as people in other failing democracies have learned to do—find new ways to champion wobbling institutions and threatened ideas. For supporters of the American experiment in liberal democracy, our only hope is education, organization, and the creation of a coalition of people dedicated to defending the spirit of the Constitution, the ideals of the Founders, the dream of freedom. More concretely: public civic-education campaigns to replace the lessons no longer taught in schools; teams of lawyers who can fight for the rule of law in courts; grassroots organizing, especially in rural and small-town America; citizens and journalists working to expose and fight the enormous wave of kleptocracy and corruption that will now engulf our political system.
或者，也许真相是民主总是处于紧张状态，总是处于争论之中。如果是这样，那么我们也必须——正如其他失败民主国家的人们所学到的那样——找到新的方法来支持摇摇欲坠的机构和受到威胁的思想。对于支持美国自由民主实验的人来说，我们唯一的希望是教育、组织，以及建立一个致力于捍卫宪法精神、创始人理想和自由梦想的人民联盟。更具体地说：开展公共公民教育运动，以取代学校中不再教授的课程；组建能够在法庭上为法治而战的律师团队；在美国农村和小城镇进行基层组织；公民和记者共同努力揭露和抵制即将吞噬我们政治体系的巨大贪腐浪潮。

Many of those shattered by this result will be tempted to withdraw into passivity—or recoil into performative radicalism. Reject both. We should focus, instead, on how to win back to the cause of liberal democracy a sufficient number of those Americans who voted for a candidate who denigrated this nation’s institutions and ideals.
许多因这一结果而感到崩溃的人会被诱惑退缩为消极状态——或者退回到表演性的激进主义中。拒绝这两者。我们应该专注于如何让足够多投票给贬低这个国家的制度和理想的候选人的美国人重新回归自由民主的事业。