As we peer out into 2025—reset buttons hit and primed for action—how should we begin to assess the broad canvas that is the U.S. equity market? One sensible way would be to start with A, for
Apple
,
which happens to be the most valuable company on earth.
当我们眺望 2025 年--按下复位键，准备行动--我们应该如何开始评估美国股票市场的广阔前景呢？一个明智的方法是从 A 开始，A 代表苹果，而苹果恰好是全球最有价值的公司。
Apple had a bang-up 2024, with its stock skying 30% (versus 23% for the
S&P 500 index
), extraordinary for a company its size. Much of the run occurred late in the year, thanks in part to the bullish drumbeat of Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, the loudest-dressed man on Wall Street, whose recent calls on Apple have been as wild as his outfits.
苹果公司在 2024 年取得了辉煌的业绩，股价飙升 30%（标准普尔 500 指数为 23%），这对一家如此规模的公司来说非同寻常。这主要归功于 Wedbush 分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的看涨鼓声，丹-艾夫斯是华尔街穿着最夸张的人，他最近对苹果的看涨就像他的服装一样狂野。
Apple stock has backed off its all-time high of $260 to close the year at $250, but still the valuation of the company is over $3.8 trillion, and shares are within striking distance of $264.63—which would make Apple the first company ever to be worth $4 trillion.
苹果股价已从 260 美元的历史高位回落，今年收盘价为 250 美元，但公司估值仍超过 3.8 万亿美元，股价距离 264.63 美元近在咫尺，这将使苹果成为有史以来第一家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。
Waxing about record valuations must make Apple CEO Tim Cook and his merry C-suiters in Cupertino cringe, because they would likely say they pay such things no never mind. And I don’t believe in jinxes, but 20 years ago I wrote about Don Graham, then CEO of the Washington Post Co., and how his stock was about to hit $1,000. It never did, and Graham—kiddingly, I think—blamed me for it. Still, for us who dwell in the land of buy, sell, or hodl (not a typo), whither Apple’s stock is more than salient.
谈论创纪录的估值一定会让苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）和他在库比蒂诺（Cupertino）的C-suiter们感到害怕，因为他们很可能会说，他们根本不在乎这种事情。我不相信厄运，但 20 年前我曾写过一篇关于唐-格雷厄姆（Don Graham）的文章，当时他是《华盛顿邮报》公司的首席执行官，他的股票即将达到 1000 美元。但他的股票始终没有达到 1000 美元，格雷厄姆为此还责怪了我--我想他是在开玩笑。尽管如此，对于我们这些 "买入、卖出或囤积"（不是打错字）的人来说，苹果公司股票的去向还是非常突出的。
Whether or not Apple hits $4 trillion soon, or ever, for now Cook has been a superhero for its shareholders. Since becoming CEO on Aug. 24, 2011, Apple’s stock is up 1,785% (versus 407% for the S&P 500), increasing its market cap by $3.45 trillion.
无论苹果公司的市值是否会很快达到 4 万亿美元，或者永远不会达到 4 万亿美元，目前库克都是其股东心目中的超级英雄。自 2011 年 8 月 24 日出任首席执行官以来，苹果股价上涨了 1785%（标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 407%），市值增加了 3.45 万亿美元。
Consider that for a minute.
考虑一下吧。
Cook presiding over a gain of $3.45 trillion means Apple was worth some $350 billion when he became CEO, which means that under Steve Jobs, Apple’s market value went from zero to $350 billion. Of course, without Jobs there would be no Apple.
库克掌管着 3.45 万亿美元的收益，这意味着当他成为首席执行官时，苹果公司的市值约为 3500 亿美元，也就是说，在乔布斯的领导下，苹果公司的市值从零变成了 3500 亿美元。当然，没有乔布斯就没有苹果。
Still, Job’s picking Tim Cook was as big as creating the iPhone. That $3.45 trillion means that as of today, Cook has produced the most stock market value of any CEO. Yes, when
Nvidia
’s
stock was higher, Jensen Huang held the crown. For now, though, with Nvidia worth $3.37 trillion, Huang is No. 2.
尽管如此，乔布斯选择蒂姆-库克的意义不亚于创造 iPhone。3.45 万亿美元意味着，截至今天，库克创造了所有首席执行官中最高的股票市值。是的，当英伟达（Nvidia）的股价较高时，黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）曾摘得桂冠。不过现在，Nvidia 的市值为 3.37 万亿美元，黄仁勋排名第二。
Cook’s run at Apple is even more remarkable given that when the little-known exec was picked for the job, it was truly a they-laughed-when-I-sat-at-the-piano moment. Turns out not only could Cook play, he was Rachmaninoff.
库克在苹果公司的表现更令人瞩目，因为当这位名不见经传的高管被选中时，真是 "当我坐在钢琴前时，他们都笑了"。原来，库克不仅会弹钢琴，还是拉赫玛尼诺夫。
Cook has now been CEO for close to 13½ years, which makes his tenure essentially the same as Steve Jobs’. (Remember that Jobs, after being ousted in 1985, returned to Apple and was named interim CEO in 1997 and permanent CEO in 2000.)
库克担任首席执行官已将近 13 年半，与乔布斯的任期基本相同（乔布斯 1985 年被赶下台后重返苹果，1997 年被任命为临时首席执行官，2000 年被任命为永久首席执行官）。
That raises another obvious point, which is: How long will TC stay and who will succeed him?
这就提出了另一个显而易见的问题：TC 将留任多久，谁将接任？
Cook, 64, shows no sign of leaving the building (or should I say, the Apple spaceship), and with the vagaries of business being what they are now, if a company has a CEO who works, turnover for turnover’s sake makes little sense.
现年 64 岁的库克丝毫没有离开这栋大楼（或者应该说是离开苹果飞船）的迹象，而现在的商业环境变幻莫测，如果一家公司的首席执行官还能正常工作，那么为更替而更替就没有什么意义了。
Still, Cook has to be eyeing the off ramp at some point. In an interview with Dua Lipa (!), Cook said he “really want[s] the [next CEO] to come from within Apple.” That individual, likely coming from Apple’s leadership team, might be Eddy Cue, Craig Federighi, Jeff Williams, Greg Joswiak, or John Ternus. Apple’s board could go with an outsider, but given the company’s strong culture and complexity, that seems unlikely.
尽管如此，库克还是希望在某个时候离开苹果。库克在接受 Dua Lipa（！）采访时说，他 "非常希望下一任首席执行官来自苹果公司内部"。这个人很可能来自苹果的领导团队，可能是埃迪-库伊（Eddy Cue）、克雷格-费德里吉（Craig Federighi）、杰夫-威廉姆斯（Jeff Williams）、格雷格-乔斯维克（Greg Joswiak）或约翰-特纳斯（John Ternus）。苹果董事会可能会选择外部人士，但考虑到公司强大的文化和复杂性，这似乎不太可能。
Let’s delve into Apple a bit, starting with its scale. For fiscal 2024, which ended in September, Apple posted $391 billion in revenue, which, after
Walmart
and
Amazon
.
com, makes it the third-biggest U.S. company and the seventh-largest in the world. Some 51% of its revenue, or $201 billion, comes from the iPhone, a business bigger than
Chevron
.
An additional 24%, or $96 billion, comes from its services businesses (as big as
Walt Disney
and growing over 10% annually), with the balance spread between the Mac, iPad, and wearables—each the size of a Fortune 200 company.
让我们深入了解一下苹果公司，首先从它的规模说起。在今年 9 月结束的 2024 财年，苹果公司实现营收 3910 亿美元，仅次于沃尔玛和亚马逊，成为美国第三大、世界第七大公司。另外 24% 的收入，即 960 亿美元，来自服务业务（规模与迪斯尼不相上下，且每年增长超过 10%），其余收入分布在 Mac、iPad 和可穿戴设备上--每项业务的规模都相当于一家《财富》200 强公司。
With almost $94 billion in net income, Apple is the third-most-profitable company in the world after
Saudi Aramco
and
Alphabet
.
It’s sitting on a trove of $65 billion in cash and marketable securities. And over the past 12 years, Apple has returned $928 billion in capital to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends.
凭借近 940 亿美元的净收入，苹果公司成为仅次于沙特阿美石油公司（Saudi Aramco）和 Alphabet 的全球第三大盈利公司，坐拥 650 亿美元的现金和有价证券。在过去的 12 年里，苹果公司通过股票回购和分红向股东返还了 9 280 亿美元的资金。
There are questions, though. While Cook seems to believe Apple still has a strong path in China, his company is exposed to myriad risks. Some $66 billion, or just under 17% of Apple’s revenue, came from Greater China in 2024, down from $72 billion in 2023.
不过，问题还是有的。虽然库克似乎相信苹果在中国仍有很好的发展前景，但他的公司也面临着无数风险。2024 年，来自大中华区的收入约为 660 亿美元，略低于 2023 年的 720 亿美元，占苹果公司收入的 17%。
A weak economy and increased competition buffeted the business.
疲软的经济和日益激烈的竞争给企业带来了冲击。
Apple also assembles much of its hardware in China, and as such is subject to the whims of the Chinese government, as well as the whims of President-elect Donald Trump and his tariff policy.
苹果公司的大部分硬件也在中国组装，因此会受到中国政府以及当选总统唐纳德-特朗普及其关税政策的影响。
(Apple has been moving some manufacturing to India.) Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, however, believes that “Tim Apple,” as Trump once called the CEO, can work his magic, writing that it’s likely that Apple “gets exclusions on products like iPhone, Mac, and iPad, similar to the first round of China tariffs in 2018.”
(不过，摩根士丹利分析师埃里克-伍德林（Erik Woodring）认为，特朗普曾称这位首席执行官为 "蒂姆-苹果"（Tim Apple），他能够施展魔法，他写道，苹果很可能 "在iPhone、Mac和iPad等产品上获得豁免，类似于2018年的第一轮对华关税"。
Apple watchers are also following two federal cases, the U.S. against Apple and the U.S. against Apple frenemy Google. In the former, the Justice Department alleges that Apple’s iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly. “It’s a risk for Apple,” says Vanderbilt Law School professor Rebecca Haw Allensworth. “Maybe it looks like the DOJ is not going to win, but it’s not something Apple can ignore.”
苹果公司的观察家们也在关注两起联邦案件：美国起诉苹果公司和美国起诉苹果公司的死敌谷歌公司。在前者中，司法部指控苹果的 iPhone 生态系统是一种垄断。"范德堡法学院教授丽贝卡-霍-阿伦斯沃斯（Rebecca Haw Allensworth）说："这对苹果来说是一个风险。"也许看起来司法部不会赢，但这不是苹果可以忽视的。"
Allensworth says while the case against Apple poses risk to the company’s core strategy, the most draconian outcome is unlikely.
艾伦斯沃思说，虽然针对苹果的案件对该公司的核心战略构成风险，但最严厉的结果不太可能出现。
In the case against Google’s search, which is accused of being a monopoly—and which is in the remedies phase—Apple faces lower strategic risk but more of an immediate threat.
在针对谷歌搜索的诉讼中，苹果面临的战略风险较低，但直接威胁更大。
That’s because the feds seek to nullify an agreement in which Google pays Apple for having its search as the default on Apple devices. Apple says that in 2022, Google paid Apple “roughly $20 billion under this deal.” Apple also filed a motion to intervene in the case, meaning it wants a seat at the table as it is hashed out.
这是因为联邦调查局试图废除谷歌向苹果支付费用，使其在苹果设备上将谷歌搜索作为默认设置的协议。苹果表示，在 2022 年，谷歌 "根据这项协议向苹果支付了大约 200 亿美元"。苹果公司还提出了介入此案的动议，这意味着它希望在此案的讨论过程中占有一席之地。
Morgan Stanley’s Woodring estimates that the risk to Apple here could represent a 4% to 28% earnings headwind in 2027, writing that “the current DOJ remedies are likely to be watered down, limiting the financial impact to Apple.”
摩根士丹利的伍德林估计，苹果公司面临的风险可能会在 2027 年造成 4% 至 28% 的盈利逆差，他写道："目前司法部的补救措施很可能会被淡化，从而限制对苹果公司的财务影响。
While Cook and Trump appear to be on good terms these days, a wild card is Elon Musk, who has his own tech ambitions (with artificial intelligence, for instance), and the ear of the president-elect.
虽然库克和特朗普最近似乎关系不错，但埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）是一个不确定因素，他有自己的科技野心（比如人工智能），也有当选总统的耳目。
And while the First Bro’s machinations don’t appear to entail Apple at this point, one never knows. Apple declined to comment for this article.
虽然目前看来第一兄弟的阴谋与苹果公司无关，但世事难料。苹果公司拒绝对本文发表评论。
To get a feel for Apple’s sway, try taking the Apple Ubiquity Test, which entails counting your Apple products and services.
要了解苹果公司的动向，可以尝试进行 Apple Ubiquity Test，即统计你所拥有的苹果产品和服务。
My empty-nest household has three laptops, two tablets, two iPhones, three AirPods, and two watches, plus Apple TV, two iCloud accounts, and an Apple credit card. That’s 16 products or services. Maybe we’re outliers, but I bet you know a family with more.
我的空巢家庭拥有三台笔记本电脑、两台平板电脑、两部 iPhone、三个 AirPods 和两块手表，外加 Apple TV、两个 iCloud 账户和一张苹果信用卡。这就是 16 种产品或服务。也许我们是个异类，但我打赌你一定知道有哪个家庭拥有更多的产品或服务。
“The best way to think about Apple’s valuation, pricing power, competitive advantage and barriers to entry is through the lens of its installed base of more than 1.25 billion of the [world’s] wealthiest consumers using more than 2.2 billion devices…five hours per day,” writes Needham’s Laura Martin.
"Needham 的劳拉-马丁（Laura Martin）写道："要想了解苹果公司的估值、定价能力、竞争优势和进入壁垒，最好的办法就是从它的装机量的角度来考虑，苹果公司拥有超过 12.5 亿（全球）最富有的消费者，他们每天使用超过 22 亿台设备......每天使用 5 个小时。
Wall Street on the whole, however, isn’t that bullish on Apple, mostly because of its valuation. The mean price target of the 46 Apple analysts is $248, a couple points below the stock’s current price, according to FactSet.
不过，华尔街整体上并不看好苹果公司，主要是因为其估值。FactSet 的数据显示，46 位苹果分析师的平均目标价为 248 美元，比该股目前的价格低几个百分点。
Flashback to the end of April 2016. Apple stock was then $23.44, and sported a dividend yield of 2.2% and a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 10. Today the stock is up more than tenfold, its dividend yield is 0.4%, and the P/E is 37.
时光倒回到 2016 年 4 月底。当时苹果股价为 23.44 美元，股息率为 2.2%，12 个月的远期市盈率为 10。如今，该股上涨了十多倍，股息率为 0.4%，市盈率为 37。
You may be forgiven for feeling a little “coulda, shoulda, woulda.” Anyone buying today faces the possibility of jumping into a downdraft or a protracted trip sideways, which Apple stock did from October 2020 to October 2022.
你可能会感到有点 "可以、应该、应该"。今天买入的任何人都有可能跌入下行通道或长期横盘，苹果股票在 2020 年 10 月至 2022 年 10 月期间就是如此。
Apple doubters point to more than just a high stock price, arguing the new iPhone 16 has no real barnburner attributes to prompt a massive upgrade cycle. That, and the company has been late getting into AI.
苹果公司的质疑者们指出，新款 iPhone 16 不仅仅是股价高，它还没有真正的 "烧钱 "属性来促使大规模的升级周期。此外，该公司进入人工智能领域的时间也较晚。
In fact, Apple has been developing AI but by leveraging its own products, services, and capabilities. The naysayers tend to underestimate the power of the iPhone and Apple’s juggernaut services business.
事实上，苹果公司一直在利用自身的产品、服务和能力开发人工智能。反对者往往低估了 iPhone 和苹果巨型服务业务的威力。
It’s also true that being an Apple bull has been a winning strategy. “Haters continue to hate on Apple,” said the sartorial Ives, who raised his price target last month to $325, the highest on the Street. “This is just the beginning of an AI-driven supercycle [for Apple].
苹果公司的 "牛市 "一直是一个成功的策略，这也是事实。"上个月，他将目标股价上调至 325 美元，为全美最高。"这只是人工智能驱动的超级周期的开始。
There are 300 million of 1.5 billion iPhones that have not been upgraded in the last four years.” The analyst then addressed Apple’s market cap: “We’re not talking $4 trillion. Twelve to 18 months from now—$5 trillion,” he said, holding up five fingers.
在 15 亿部 iPhone 中，有 3 亿部在过去四年中没有升级。这位分析师随后谈到了苹果的市值："我们谈论的不是 4 万亿美元。他竖起五根手指说："从现在开始的 12 到 18 个月内，市值将达到 5 万亿美元。
Recently, I was out for a run with pals Alan and John, both of whom bought a slug of Apple years ago. I asked why. “A guy told me the stock was cheap,” John said. “I saw the iPod thing happening,” Alan said. So John saw value and Alan saw revolutionary product innovation.
最近，我和朋友艾伦和约翰一起出去跑步，他们都在几年前买了一袋苹果。我问他们为什么。"约翰说："有个人告诉我股票很便宜。"艾伦说："我看到了 iPod 的出现。所以约翰看到了价值，艾伦看到了革命性的产品创新。
While it may be tough to see either today, Tim Cook has made Apple an appealing investment by creating another form of differentiation, which is unparalleled, relentless execution.
虽然今天可能很难看到这两点，但蒂姆-库克通过创造另一种形式的差异化，也就是无与伦比、坚持不懈的执行力，使苹果成为一项有吸引力的投资。
That’s powerful enough to make Apple the most valuable company on the planet—and it will likely remain at or near that apex in 2025, and for the rest of Cook’s tenure.
这足以让苹果公司成为全球最有价值的公司，而且在 2025 年以及库克的剩余任期内，苹果公司很可能会保持或接近这一顶点。
Corrections & Amplifications
更正和补充
Nvidia’s market cap was recently $3.37 trillion. An earlier version of this column incorrectly gave the figure as $3.37 billion.
Nvidia 的市值最近达到 3.37 万亿美元。本专栏的早期版本将这一数字误为 33.7 亿美元。
Write to Andy Serwer at andy.serwer@barrons.com
写信给 Andy Serwer，电子邮件：andy.serwer@barrons.com
