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All the tools the PBOC has to support China’s property sector
中国人民银行支持中国房地产业的所有工具

The PBOC’s latest tool is likely the most powerful so far, making 300 billion yuan (S$55.9 billion) of cheap credit available for banks to fund local-government purchases of unsold homes
中国人民银行的最新工具可能是迄今为止最强大的工具,为银行提供 3000 亿元人民币(559 亿新元)的廉价信贷,为地方政府购买未售出的房屋提供资金

Published Mon, Jun 3, 2024 · 03:08 PM
发布时间:2024 年 6 月 3 日星期一 · 下午 03:08
Commercial and residential buildings stand in the Nanshan district of Shenzhen, China, on Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2014. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
The relending programme is just the latest in a series of facilities set up by China’s central bank to fight the slump – most of which are still in operation. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

The People’s Bank of China is the key actor in Beijing’s intensifying effort to shore up the housing market, pumping in cash through a variety of programmes with more funds available if they’re needed. 
中国人民银行是北京加大力度提振房地产市场的关键行动者,通过各种计划注入现金,并在需要时提供更多资金。

The PBOC’s latest tool is likely the most powerful so far, making 300 billion yuan (S$55.9 billion) of cheap credit available for banks to fund local-government purchases of unsold homes. The goal is to chip away at the country’s excess housing stock and ease cashflow strains for developers. 
中国人民银行的最新工具可能是迄今为止最强大的工具,为银行提供 3000 亿元人民币(559 亿新元)的廉价信贷,为地方政府购买未售出的房屋提供资金。其目标是消除该国过剩的住房存量并缓解开发商的现金流压力。

The relending programme is just the latest in a series of facilities set up by China’s central bank to fight the slump – most of which are still in operation. Many of them have had teething troubles: A pilot plan launched in eight cities last year saw limited interest from banks and local governments. 
再贷款计划只是中国央行为应对经济衰退而设立的一系列措施中的最新一项——其中大部分仍在运行。其中许多都遇到了初期的麻烦:去年在八个城市启动的试点计划银行和地方政府的兴趣有限。

What’s more, economists think the overall amount of central-bank credit on offer still isn’t enough to get the job done. Bloomberg Economics says the latest programme could double in size before the end of this year. Investors are hoping that as much as 3 trillion yuan of financing will eventually be unleashed, BNP Paribas analysts wrote last month. They said everything the PBOC has done so far is “probably just the beginning.” 
更重要的是,经济学家认为央行提供的信贷总量仍然不足以完成这项工作。彭博经济研究称,最新计划的规模可能会在今年年底前扩大一倍。法国巴黎银行分析师上个月写道,投资者希望最终能释放高达3万亿元人民币的融资。他们表示,中国央行迄今为止所做的一切“可能只是一个开始”。

China is mobilising commercial banks for the housing rescue too. State-backed developer China Vanke is in advanced talks with lenders for a 50 billion yuan credit, weeks after getting a 20 billion yuan syndicated loan. Those offers came after financial regulators instructed banks to support Vanke, as concern grew among investors that the giant developer was facing a liquidity crunch and could default. 
中国也在动员商业银行进行住房救助。在获得 200 亿元人民币银团贷款几周后,国家支持的开发商万科正在与贷方就 500 亿元人民币信贷进行深入谈判。这些提议是在金融监管机构指示银行支持万科之后提出的,因为投资者越来越担心这家大型开发商面临流动性紧缩并可能违约。

Still, the PBOC is front and centre of the bailouts. From Bejing’s point of view, using monetary tools – as opposed to injecting government money directly via fiscal spending – has some key advantages. Central bank lending programmes can be scaled up rapidly, allowing authorities to respond in the event of a sharper downturn. By comparison, raising funds via government bond sales needs approval by the national legislature, which sets annual issuance plans at the beginning of each year.
尽管如此,中国人民银行仍然是救助的前沿和中心。从北京的角度来看,使用货币工具 — — 相对于直接通过财政支出注入政府资金 — — 具有一些关键优势。央行贷款计划可以迅速扩大,使当局能够在经济衰退加剧时做出反应。相比之下,通过发行政府债券筹集资金需要得到国家立法机关的批准,国家立法机关在每年年初制定年度发行计划。

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The International Monetary Fund suggests China may need fiscal tools too. It says Beijing should provide financing to help developers complete pre-sold and unfinished housing projects, or compensate people who bought them. That would “pave the way for exit of insolvent developers from the property market,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in the Chinese capital on Wednesday (May 29).
国际货币基金组织表示,中国可能也需要财政工具。报告称,北京应提供融资,帮助开发商完成预售和未完工的住房项目,或对购房者进行补偿。国际货币基金组织第一副总裁吉塔·戈皮纳特周三(5月29日)在中国首都表示,这将“为无力偿债的开发商退出房地产市场铺平道路”。

Here’s a look at the different levers the PBOC has available to support the housing market. 
以下是中国人民银行可用于支持房地产市场的不同杠杆。

Affordable Housing Relending 
经济适用房转贷

  • Quota: 300 billion yuan 额度:3000亿元

  • How it works: Banks provide loans for local governments to buy finished and unsold apartments. For each loan granted, the PBOC provides 60 per cent of the principal at an interest rate of 1.75 per cent.
    运作方式:银行向地方政府提供贷款,用于购买已完工和未售出的公寓。对于每笔发放的贷款,中国人民银行以 1.75% 的利率提供本金的 60%。

  • Condition: Local authorities must rapidly convert the apartments into subsidised housing for rent or quick sale.
    条件:地方当局必须迅速将公寓转变为保障性住房以供出租或快速出售。

  • Scope: 21 national banks and all cities, on a voluntary basis
    范围:21家国家银行和所有城市,自愿基础上

The programme will incorporate a pilot scheme in eight cities that had a quota of 100 billion yuan. PBOC statements and media reports suggest that only a small part of it has been used. Investors may not get an update on the new programme’s progress until July, when the PBOC usually publishes a second-quarter breakdown of its targeted tools. 
该计划将在8个城市进行试点,额度为1000亿元。中国人民银行的声明和媒体报道表明,仅使用了其中的一小部分。投资者可能要到 7 月份才能获悉新计划的最新进展,届时中国人民银行通常会发布其目标工具的第二季度细目。

Pledged Supplemental Lending (PSL) for ‘Three Major Projects’
“三大工程”的质押补充贷款(PSL)

  • Amount issued: 500 billion yuan
    发行金额:5000亿元

  • How it works: Three policy-oriented banks lend to projects for building affordable housing, renovating urban villages and constructing public facilities in cities. The PBOC provides 100 per cent of the principal at a rate of 2.25 per cent (as of March) to the lenders, which pledge high-grade bonds or loans as collateral. Unlike the relending facility, the PBOC supplies credit upfront in this programme, and it’s not clear how much of the cash has been lent on for housing projects.
    运作方式:三大政策性银行向保障性住房建设、城中村改造和城市公共设施建设项目提供贷款。中国人民银行以 2.25% 的利率(截至 3 月份)向贷方提供 100% 的本金,贷方以高等级债券或贷款作为抵押品。与再贷款机制不同,中国人民银行在该计划中预先提供信贷,目前尚不清楚有多少现金被借用于住房项目。

  • Scope: China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China, Agricultural Development Bank of China
    范围:国家开发银行、中国进出口银行、中国农业发展银行

The Pledged Supplemental Lending programme helped engineer a turnaround after China’s last housing downturn in 2015, and until a few months ago was seen as an important tool this time as well. But its impact has proved to be limited, perhaps in part because policymakers are increasingly focused on finding buyers for unsold homes rather than building new ones. 
承诺补充贷款计划帮助中国在2015年上一次房地产低迷之后实现了扭亏为盈,直到几个月前,这一次也被视为一个重要工具。但事实证明,其影响有限,部分原因可能是政策制定者越来越注重为未售出的房屋寻找买家,而不是建造新房屋。

The “three major projects” contributed 0.6 percentage point to property investment growth in the first quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics – not enough to move the needle. Real estate investment still plunged almost 8 per cent from a year ago. By comparison, between 2015 and 2018 a shantytown redevelopment project funded by the PSL programme contributed about 15 per cent of all housing investment in the period, according to BNP Paribas. 
根据国家统计局的数据,“三大工程”对今年一季度房地产投资增长的贡献为0.6个百分点,但还不足以起到推动作用。房地产投资仍比一年前下降近8%。相比之下,据法国巴黎银行称,2015年至2018年间,由PSL计划资助的棚户区重建项目贡献了该时期所有住房投资的约15%。

Relending for Housing Project Delivery

  • Amount issued: 9 billion yuan (as of March)

  • Quota: 200 billion yuan

  • How it works: Banks provide loans to delayed residential housing projects for their timely delivery. The PBOC provides lenders with funds equal to 100 per cent of the loan principal at no cost.

  • Scope: Six to 18 national banks

Introduced in December 2022, the programme was part of a concerted effort to ensure unfinished homes are completed. Another similar programme launched the same year was the “special loans” granted by policy banks to stalled projects. Almost all the 350 billion yuan available under that program had been deployed by the end of last year, according to the financial regulator. 

Relending for Real Estate M&As

  • Amount issued: 21 billion yuan (as of March)

  • Quota: 80 billion yuan

  • How it works: China’s five biggest bad-debt management companies conduct mergers and acquisitions for projects of troubled developers. The PBOC provides funds equal to 50 per cent of their actual investment at a rate of 1.75 per cent

The programme set up in January 2023 has expired, according to the latest breakdown of structural tools released by the PBOC in April. The limited takeup was likely due to concern about potential losses among the debt management firms, which see such mergers as highly risky in a worsening housing market. BLOOMBERG

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Commercial and residential buildings stand in the Nanshan district of Shenzhen, China, on Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2014. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg