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Problem Chosen

B

2025

MCM

Summary Sheet

Team Control Number
2507120

迈向未来——
Towards the future –

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州朱诺市可持续旅游发展
Sustainable tourism development in the city of Juno
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Summary

旅游业是一个价值数十亿美元的全球产业,作为美国阿拉斯加州朱诺市重要产业之一,朱诺市经济有着重大贡献。同时,自联合国(UN)于20159月推出可持续发展目标(SDG)以来,旅游业已采用可持续发展战略,涉及满足各种利益相关者的需求,包括(i)游客,(ii)行业,(iii)环境,以及(iv)东道社区。可持续性的旅游业可能改善经济增长,同时提高人们的生活质量,支持生态安全。但是,值得注意的是,不可持续的增长会给当地带来严重的负面影响因此建立一个可持性旅游发展评估模型对朱诺市发展有着重要战略作用
Tourism is a multi-billion dollar global industry, and as one of the important industries in Juneau, Alaska, it contributes significantly to the city's economy. At the same time, since the United Nations (UN) launched the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in September 2015, the tourism industry has adopted a sustainable development strategyIt involves meeting the needs of a variety of stakeholders, including (i) tourists, (ii) industry, (iii) the environment, and (iv) host communities. Sustainable tourism has the potential to improve economic growth while improving people's quality of life and supporting ecological security. However, it is worth noting that unsustainable growth can have serious negative effects on the local area, hence the establishment of aThe sustainable tourism development assessment model plays an important strategic role in the development of Juno City.

为此,我们做出以下主要贡献
To this end, we make the following main contributions:

对于任务1,我们开发了一个朱诺市可持续旅游发展最优为目标最大化为目标可持续旅游发展模型通过调整税率以改变游客数量来实现提高收入,减小环境压力和基础设施压力,同时提高居民满意度的目的同时以旅客、环境和基础设施最大承载量为约束条件,实现对朱诺市可持续旅游发展优化以此模型为基础建立非线性规划问题通过模拟退算法求解得到了实现朱诺市收入最大同时最小化隐性成本的情况下,游客接待数量建议110.5(),税率最佳为0.7703,此时,可以实现朱诺市旅游收入达35209.728(万美元),同时其他隐性成本影响占比较,此外,我们制定额外收入用于改善环境和基础设施压力政策,通过比较实施政策和没有实施政策的结果,我们发现,实施政策后朱诺市环境压力大幅降低了36%基础设施压力也减小了17.9%同时,收入0.5%结果展现了实施额外收入用于改善生态环境和基础设施压力的政策,可以促进旅游经济收入旅游业可持续旅游发展同时我们对模型进行了灵敏性分析尽管数据中有一定的波动,但我们的模型仍然从定的角度给出了类似的结果证明了本文提出的模型的可靠性。
For task 1, we developed a sustainable tourism development model with the goal of maximizing the optimal sustainable tourism development in Juno City. By adjusting the tax rate to change the number of tourists, the purpose of increasing income, reducing environmental pressure and infrastructure pressure, and at the same time improving resident satisfaction, while constraining the maximum carrying capacity of tourists, environment and infrastructure, the city of Juno was realizedSustainable tourism development optimization. Based on this model, the nonlinear programming problem is established, which is solved by the simulated annealing algorithmIn the case of maximizing the revenue of the city of Juno while minimizing the hidden costs, the number of tourists received is recommended to be 1.105 million (10,000) people, The optimal tax rate is 0.7703, at this time, the tourism revenue of Juno City can reach 35209.728 (US dollars), and other hidden costs account for the comparisonIn addition, we develop additional revenues for improving environmental and infrastructure stress policies, and by comparing the results of implementing policies and not implementing policies, we find that after implementing policies, Juno City is under environmental pressureA significant reduction of 36% and a 17.9% reduction in infrastructure pressure, while revenues increased0.5%, the results show that the implementation of policies that use additional revenue to improve the ecological environment and infrastructure pressure can promote tourism economic income, which is realSustainable tourism development in the current tourism industry. At the same time, we analyzed the sensitivity of the model, and although there were some fluctuations in the data, our model still gave similar results from the perspective of constant quantity, which proved the reliability of the model proposed in this paper.

对于任务2,我们将模型推广到北京市,依据其地域旅游特色,对模型进行了调整在迁移朱诺市可持续旅游发展的基础上采用多旅游景区差异化定价政策调整每个景区的游客密度,调高热门景点(故宫)基础消费114.6%,小幅增加中等热度的景点基础消费(如颐和园35.70%,北海公园48.78%同时对于冷门景点(万寿寺)我们对其基础消费进行细微的调整,同时利用政策宣传等提高其景区实际吸引力。结果表明:利用差异化定价可以有效实现热门景区和冷门景区有效改变游客密度使得可持续发展目标函数取最大值,在缓解热门景区游客压力同时为冷门景区带来客流量,有效调控了社会资源,实现了良好的平衡
For task 2, we extended the model to the city of Beijing, adjusted the model according to its regional tourism characteristics, and adopted multi-tourism on the basis of the sustainable tourism development of Juno City The differentiated pricing policy of scenic spots adjusts the tourist density of each scenic spot, increases the basic consumption of popular attractions (Forbidden City)114.6%, and slightly increases the basic consumption of moderately popular scenic spots (such as the Summer Palace 35.70% , Beihai Park 48.78%), at the same time, for the unpopular attractions (Wanshou Temple), we make subtle adjustments to their basic consumption, and at the same time use policy publicity to improve the actual attractiveness of their scenic spots. The results show that the use of differentiated pricing can effectively change the tourist density of popular scenic spots and unpopular scenic spots, so that the sustainable development objective function can be maximized, and the pressure of tourists in popular scenic spots can be alleviatedAt the same time, it brings passenger flow to unpopular scenic spots, effectively regulates social resources, and achieves a good balance.

对于任务3我们评估了模型的优缺点并利用模型提出促进可持续旅游发展的策略同时结合全文分析朱诺市旅游委员会写一份关于朱诺市可持续旅游发展建议的备忘录。
For task 3, we evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of the model and used it to propose strategies to promote sustainable tourism development. At the same time, a memorandum was written to the Juno's Tourism Committee on the city's recommendations for sustainable tourism development.

Keywords:可持续性发展,目标规划,模拟退火算法最小二乘法,离散选择模型政策优化
KeyworDS: Multi-objective Programming for Sustainable Development, Simulated Annealing Algorithm, Least Squares Method, Discrete Selection Model, Policy Optimization

Team # 2507120 Page 3 of 11

Contents

1 Introduction5

1.1 Problem Background5

1.2 Restatement of the Problem5

1.3 Literature Review5

1.4 Our Work6

2 Assumptions and Justifications6

3 Notations7

4 Data Description7

4.1 Given Data7

4.2 Additional data7

4.3 Data Preprocessing8

5 模型:可持续旅游发展模型8
5 Model: Sustainable Tourism Development Model 8

5.1 可持续旅游发展模型建立8
5.1 Establishment of a sustainable tourism development model8

5.1.1 旅游带来的经济收入(I8
5.1.1 Economic income from tourism (I)8

5.1.2 游客数量与税收的关系(T8
5.1.2 Relationship between the number of tourists and taxes (T)8

5.1.3 基础设施压力(P9
5.1.3 Infrastructure pressure (P)9

5.1.4 环境影响(E9
5.1.4 Environmental impact (E)9

5.1.5 居民满足度(S10
5.1.5 Resident Satisfaction (S) 10

5.1.6 额外收入支出计划10
5.1.6 Additional Income Expenditure Plan10

5.1.7 优化目标函数11
5.1.7 Optimizing the objective function11

5.2 基于模拟退火算法的模型求解11
5.2 Model solving based on simulated annealing algorithm11

5.3 Sensitivity Analysis14

5.4 政策建议16
5.4 Policy recommendation 16

6 基于可持续发展旅游模型推广的北京市可持续旅游模型16
6 Beijing's sustainable tourism model based on the promotion of sustainable tourism model16

6.1 目的地特点分析17
6.1 Analysis of destination characteristics17

6.2 可持续旅游发展模型调整17
6.2 Adaptation of the sustainable tourism development model17

6.3 基于DCM的可持续旅游模型17
6.3 DCM-based sustainable tourism model17

6.3.1 Notations17 

6.3.2 景区游客动态基础消费(18 

6.3.3 景区收入(18 

6.3.4 景区基础设施压力(18 

6.3.5 景区环境压力(18 

6.3.6 居民满意度(18 

6.3.7 景区实际吸引力()19 

6.3.8 每个景区游客选择的概率()19 

6.3.9 每个景区的游客密度(19 

6.3.10 目标函数19 

6.4 Data Description20 

6.5 基于SA求解北京市可持续发展模型20 

6.6 结果分析20 

7 Model Evaluation and Further Discussion20 

7.1 Strengths20 

7.2 Weaknesses21 

7.3 Further Discussion21 

8 Conclusion21 

References24 

Introduction

Problem Background

朱诺市是阿拉斯加的一个热门旅游城市在为当地旅游业创造巨大经济收益的同时对当地生态环境和居民的生活带来了巨大影响。为了维持朱诺市经济生态和居民的平衡发展,建立可持续性旅游发展评估模型尤为重要
Juno City is a popular tourist city in Alaska, which has a huge impact on the local ecology and the lives of residents while generating huge economic benefits for the local tourism industry. In order to maintain the balanced development of the economy, ecology and residents of Juno City, it is particularly important to establish an evaluation model for sustainable tourism development.

Restatement of the Problem

对于给定的要求和任务,我们重申它们以帮助更好地定位我们的工作重点。
For the given requirements and tasks, we reiterate them to help better position our priorities.

Task1:构建可持续旅游模型:考虑游客数量、总收入、政策措施等因素,明确优化目标和约束条件,并制定支出计划以支持可持续发展
Task 1: Build a sustainable tourism model: Consider factors such as the number of tourists, total revenue, policy measures, etc., clarify optimization goals and constraints, and develop a spending plan to support sustainable development
;

Task2:模型适应性分析:展示模型如何适用于其他受过度旅游影响的旅游目的地,并分析不同地点对措施选择的影响
Task2: Model Adaptability Analysis: Demonstrate how the model can be applied to other destinations affected by overtourism, and analyze the impact of different locations on the choice of measures
;

Task3:提交备忘录:向朱诺市旅游委员会提交一页备忘录,概述预测结果、措施效果及优化建议。
Task3: Submit a memo: Submit a one-page memo to the Juno City Tourism Commission outlining the projected results, the effectiveness of the measures, and the recommendations for optimization.

Literature Review

针对可持续性旅游发展的研究,联合国世界旅游组织(UNWTO)宣布2017年是“分水岭时刻”,正式将这一年定为“可持续旅游业促进发展国际年”,提出“使旅游业成为积极变革的催化剂”[1]以来可持续性旅游发展已成为国际政府、从业人员和政策制定者之间争论的焦点领域。在这方面,以前的研究表明,旅游业不仅为各国提供财政援助,而且还提供了有吸引力的景观,并有助于建立该国的积极形象[2[3最近的研究主要强调了旅游业在实现可持续发展目标的道路上的作用和重要性[4,5]同时有研究指出尽管重大的环境破坏仍在继续[6],但旅游业在可持续发展道路上已经取得了进展和动力[7]值得注意的是,As humanity transitions from theHolocene to the Anthropocene [8],由于栖息地丧失、生物多样性的威胁和气候变化,建立新的可持续性旅游发展评估模型适应社会经济转变的需求保护文化和环境多样性对于持续的生计发展和福祉越来越紧迫
Since the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) declared 2017 as a "watershed moment", the year has been officially designated as the "International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development", proposing to "make tourism a catalyst for positive change" [1].Since then, sustainable tourism development has become a key area of debate among international governments, practitioners and policymakers. In this regard, previous studies have shown that tourism not only provides financial assistance to countries, but also provides attractive landscapes and contributes to the establishment of a positive image of the country [2][3]. Recent studies have focused on the role and importance of tourism on the road to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals [4, 5]. At the same time, studies have pointed out that although major environmental damage continues [6], the tourism industry has made progress and momentum on the road to sustainable development [7]. Notably, as humanity transitions from theHolocene to the Anthropocene[8], due to habitat loss, threats to biodiversity, and climate changeThe development of a new assessment model for sustainable tourism development to meet the needs of socio-economic transformation, and the preservation of cultural and environmental diversity is increasingly urgent for sustainable livelihood development and well-being.

Our Work

Our Work

Assumptions and Justifications

Considering those practical problems always contain many complex factors, first of all, we need to make reasonable assumptions to simplify the model, and each hypothesis is closely followed by its corresponding explanation:

Assumption 1:游客分布与时间段管理:我们忽略游客旅游淡季的影响,仅考虑朱诺市在特定旅游旺季接待的游客总流量 

Explanations:虽然游客数量在不同时间段分布可能不同,存在一定的灵活性但由于本文影响模型的主要因素为环境和基础设施承载力,因此为了简化模型,我们以旅游旺季时游客数量为主要研究对象。 

Assumption 2:隐性成本的量化:本文中隐性成本(包括对环境、基础设施和社会)为了简化模型,只考虑其中主要的影响因素 

Explanations:环境变化受到当地旅游带来的影响而外,还受到全球气候变化,极端天气影响等多种因素影响。因此,为了简化模型,我们只考虑由游客引起的主要影响因素,忽略掉数据中其它次要因素影响 

Assumption 3: 朱诺市的基础设施承载能力有限 

Explanations:朱诺市的基础设施(如水、电、垃圾处理)具有一定的承载能力,超过此能力将导致基础设施压力加剧,因此我们设定朱诺市基础设施承载能力有限,忽略旅游期间朱诺市可能设立的临时公共服务设施 

Notations 

The key mathematical notations used in this paper are listed in Table 1: 

Notations used in this paper 

Symbol 

Description 

Unit 

代表朱诺市在特定期间内接待的游客数量,取值范围为[10000,20000] 

Ten thousond 

对游客消费征税的比例,反映了市政府对游客消费征收的税率,取值范围为[0.05,1] 

--

基础设施压力(主要包括饮用水供应、交通、住房压力等) 

--

环境影响(主要包括碳足迹 

--

居民满意度(受游客数量、基础设施压力和环境影响的综合影响 

--

游客带来的收入 

$ 

Data Description 

在本模型中,数据是支撑模型运作的基础,帮助我们量化游客数量、收入、隐性成本以及相关约束条件。以下是我们使用的数据描述: 

Given Data 

利用题目中给出的参考文献[9],我们收集得到了朱诺市游客数量,游客消费数据,以及总游客数量上限来源于朱诺市为了维持当地生态平衡和居民正常生活颁布的政策)。 

Additional data 

由于题中没有给出关于隐形成本数据(包括碳足迹,基础设施压力等,通过查阅数据网站以及美国加州朱诺市官方数据,我们得到以下数据: 

社会成本Destination Next[10]收集了朱诺市社会调查、居民满意度调查、投诉数据等数据。数据用于描述由于游客过多导致的社会压力,如房价上涨、噪音污染等。该数据集包括但不限于当地社区支持程度,居民对交通,住宿等的Perceived Performance。我们根据数据的相关和重要度进行了细分,囊括了当地居民交通压力社区环境满意度  ;

环境成本:从朱诺市政府官方网站[7]获取了朱诺市环境监测数据,此数据包括碳足迹  ;

基础设施成本朱诺经济发展委员会发布的数据[8]获取了朱诺市基础设施相关部门以及朱诺市的财政预算数据。其中包括交通等基础设施维护费用以及朱诺市基础设备承载能力  .

Data Preprocessing 

在模型建立之前,我们对所有的数据进行了以下预处理: 

数据清洗为了确保所有数据完整,没有缺失值,去除异常值  ;

数据平滑:考虑到游客数量和隐性成本之间的波动,我们对一些数据进行平滑处理,以去除极端波动  ;

数据归一化为了确保可比性和分析精度,我们将所有变量转换为统一的无量纲尺度,这是通过应用标准化公式实现的。 

其中代表任何一个变量(游客数量、基础设施压力、环境影响、居民满意度)。 

模型:可持续旅游发展模型 

如果邮轮带来的游客量在可控范围内,则不会破坏生态环境的情况下可以提高当地旅游收入,增强居民满意度。但是,当旅游带来的压力超过了朱诺市基础设施或者生态环境所能承受的范围,就会对当地生态环境以及居民正常生活带来破坏因此,我们希望开发一个模型估计在保证当地生态环境和居民正常生活的前提下通过调整各种因素影响,实现对朱诺市可持续发展的优化 

可持续旅游发展模型建立 

本模型的主要目标是以朱诺市可持续旅游发展最优为目标,建立可持续旅游发展的模型,通过调整税率以改变游客数量来实现提高收入,减小环境压力和基础设施压力,同时提高居民满意度的目的,同时以旅客、环境和基础设施最大承载量为约束条件,实现了对朱诺市可持续旅游发展优化。在此过程中具体目标可以简化为以下几个方面: 

最大化旅游收入:考虑游客数量和税率对收入的影响  ;

最大化居民满意度:居民满意度与游客数量、基础设施压力、环境影响等因素相关  ;

最小化基础设施压力:基础设施压力与游客数量、资源消耗等因素相关  ;

最小化环境影响:环境影响与游客数量、碳排放等因素相关。 

旅游带来的经济收入I 

收入由游客数量和税率共同决定,关系式可表示为: 

其中是每个游客基础消费是税率。本文中$
Among them is the basic consumption of each tourist, which is the tax rate. $ in this article.

游客数量与税收的关系T
Relationship between the number of tourists and taxes (T).

游客数量随税率变化,通常可以使用指数衰减模型来描述:
The number of tourists varies with the tax rate and can often be described using an exponential decay model:

其中(万人)表示没有税率时最大游客数量,为税率对游客数量影响的衰减系数,是税率本文中
Among them (10,000 people) represents the maximum number of tourists when there is no tax rate, which is the attenuation coefficient of the impact of the tax rate on the number of tourists, which is the tax rate, in this article.

利用公式可以得出:随着税率增加,游客数量会逐渐下降,且下降速度会随税率的增加而加快。
Using the formula, it can be concluded that as the tax rate increases, the number of tourists will gradually decrease, and the rate of decline will accelerate as the tax rate increases.

基础设施压力P
Infrastructure Pressure (P).

基础设施交通压力可以与游客数量成二次函数关系[11],因此可以通过一个二次方程来描述:
The traffic pressure of the infrastructure can be a quadratic function of the number of tourists [11], so it can be described by a quadratic equation:

其中为基础压力系数,我们通过最小二乘法拟合历史朱诺市基础设施交通压力数据估算其中最大基础设施压力为29700
Among them, the basic pressure coefficient is estimated by fitting the historical infrastructure traffic pressure data of Juno City by the least squares method: The maximum infrastructure pressure is 29,700.

旅客人数与基础设施压力的拟合曲线
Fitting curve of passenger numbers versus infrastructure pressures

环境影响E
Environmental impact (E).

环境影响可以于游客数量三次函数关系[16],随着游客数量的增加,环境负担(如碳排放、垃圾处理等)会急剧增加,因此可以使用以下三次方程描述:
The environmental impact can be a cubic function of the number of tourists [16], and as the number of tourists increases, the environmental burden (e.g., carbon emissions, garbage disposal, etc.) increases dramatically, so it can be described using the following cubic equation:

其中,是环境影响系数,我们通过最小二乘法拟合历史朱诺市碳排放数据与旅客人数关系估算得其中最大环境压力为952000
Among them, is the environmental impact coefficient, which we estimate by fitting the relationship between historical Juneau carbon emission data and the number of tourists by fitting the least squares method: The maximum ambient pressure is 952,000.

游客人数与环境压力的拟合曲线
Fitting curve of tourist numbers versus environmental pressures

居民满足度S
Resident Satisfaction(s).

本文中通过主成分分析,得出居民满意度主要受三方面因素影响(游客数量,基础设施压力,环境影响,利用公式,可以描述居民满意度:
In this paper, through principal component analysis, it is concluded that residents' satisfaction is mainly affected by three factors (the number of tourists, infrastructure pressure, and environmental impact).Describe Resident Satisfaction:

其中是满意度模型的权重系数,为控制居民满意度衰减速度的参数本文中
Among them is the weight coefficient of the satisfaction model, which is the parameter that controls the decay rate of residents' satisfaction. in this article.

额外收入支出计划
Additional income expenditure plan

为了维持朱诺市可持续发展,探索最优政策,模型中将额外税收收入用于改善环境质量和基础设施建设,具体支出计划如下:
In order to maintain the sustainable development of the city of Juno and explore the optimal policies, the additional tax revenue will be used to improve environmental quality and infrastructure construction in the model, and the specific expenditure plan is as follows:

环境保护支出利用税收和游客数量关系推导可知,环境保护资金与游客数量存在非线性关系,设定环境保护支出比例为0.2,环境保护支出
Environmental protection expenditure: Using the relationship between tax and the number of tourists, it can be seen that there is a nonlinear relationship between environmental protection funds and the number of tourists, and the environmental protection expenditure is set to 0.2, then the environmental protection expenditure is

基础设施建设支出利用税收和游客数量关系推导基础设施建设资金与游客数量存在非线性关系,设定基础设施建设支出比例为0.2,则环境保护支出为
Infrastructure construction expenditure: Using the relationship between tax revenue and the number of tourists, it can be seen that there is a nonlinear relationship between infrastructure construction funds and the number of touristsIf the proportion of infrastructure construction expenditure is 0.2, the environmental protection expenditure is:

引入额外收入支出计划政策后,调整基础设施压力和环境压力分别为公式公式
After the introduction of the additional revenue expenditure plan policy, the adjustment of infrastructure pressure and environmental pressure are respectively formula and formula:

优化目标函数
Optimize the objective function

本文优化目标为:
The optimization objectives of this article are:

最大化旅游收入(通过调整税率控制游客数量)
Maximizing tourism revenue (controlling the number of tourists by adjusting the tax rate)
;

减少基础设施压力和环境影响
Reduce infrastructure stress and environmental impact
;

保持较高的居民满意度。
Maintain a high level of resident satisfaction.

因此综合目标函数可以表达为:
Thus the composite objective function can be expressed as:

目标函数表示加权其中是各种目标因素的权重系数,表示不同因素对总目标的影响程度本文中
The objective function represents the weighted coefficients of various objective factors, which indicates the degree of influence of different factors on the overall objective. in this article.

基于模拟退火算法模型求解
Model solution based on simulated annealing algorithm

为了求解考虑朱诺市最大收入目标函数最优解,我们选取模拟退火算法进行求解,通过不断随机扰动当前解,并根据目标函数的变化以最大化目标函数为指标来决定是否接收新的解,不断迭代,接收较差解的概率逐渐减小,从而可能跳出局部最优解,最终收敛到全局最优解。基本步骤Figure 4:
In order to solve the optimal solution considering the objective function of the maximum income of Juno City, we choose the simulated annealing algorithm to solve the problem, and the current solution is continuously disturbed randomly according to the change of the objective functionWith the maximization objective function as the index to decide whether to receive a new solution, the probability of receiving a worse solution gradually decreases under continuous iteration, so that it may jump out of the local optimal solution and finally converge to the global optimal solution. The basic steps are as shown in Figure 4::

模拟退化算法流程图
Flowchart of the simulated degradation algorithm

利用Matlab求解模型后,得到结果如下:
After using Matlab to solve the model, the results are as follows:

DATA

RESULT

Number of tourists N

(ten thousand)

110.5

Objective function Z

0.56

Optimal income I

35209.728

Optimal infrastructure pressure P

9039.51

Optimal Environmental Impact E

112699.01

Optimal satisfaction S

0.66

Optimal tax rate K

0.7703

同时,为了探索额外收入用于支持环境保护和缓解基础设施压力策略对模型的影响,我们分别对使用政策和没有实施策略分别进行求解,得到的结果用于比较探索策略对模型带来的影响
At the same time, in order to explore the impact of the additional revenue used to support environmental protection and alleviate the pressure on the infrastructure, we solved the strategy of use and the strategy of no implementation respectively, and the results obtained were used to compare the impact of the exploration strategy on the model.

利用Matlab求解模型得到结果Figure 5:
The results of the Matlab solution model are obtained as shown in Figure 5.

政策对可持续旅游发展模型产生的影响
The impact of policies on sustainable tourism development models

通过对比数据结果可以得出当我们实施政策后,产生了以下积极影响:
By comparing the results of the data, we can conclude that when we implemented the policy, we had the following positive impacts:

游客数量增加:实施政策后,游客数量增加了约0.91万(十万人),表明政策对吸引游客有积极作用
Increase in the number of tourists: After the implementation of the policy, the number of tourists increased by about 9,100 (100,000), indicating that the policy has a positive effect on attracting tourists
;

目标函数值提高目标函数值从0.54提高到0.56,说明政策有助于优化整体目标,可能包括经济、环境和社会等多个方面的综合效益
Increase in the value of the objective function: The increase in the value of the objective function from 0.54 to 0.56 indicates that the policy can help optimize the overall goal, which may include the combined benefits of economic, environmental and social aspects
;

最优收入增加:实施政策后,最优收入增加了约183.015,表明政策对经济收入有显著的提升作用。
Optimal income increase: After the implementation of the policy, the optimal income increased by about 183.015, indicating that the policy has a significant effect on economic income.

基础设施压力减轻:实施政策后,基础设施压力减少了约1968.36,说明政策有助于合理分配和利用基础设施资源,减轻了基础设施的负担
Reduction of infrastructure pressure: After the implementation of the policy, the pressure on infrastructure was reduced by about 1968.36, indicating that the policy was conducive to the rational allocation and utilization of infrastructure resources and reduced the burden on infrastructure
;

环境影响降低:实施政策后,环境影响减少了约63493.21,表明政策在环境保护方面发挥了积极作用,减少了对环境的负面影响
Reduction of environmental impact: After the implementation of the policy, the environmental impact was reduced by about 63493.21, indicating that the policy played an active role in environmental protection and reduced the negative impact on the environment
;

居民满意度提高:实施政策后,满意度从0.62提高到0.66,说明政策提升了游客和相关利益方的满意度
Residents' satisfaction improved: After the implementation of the policy, the satisfaction rate increased from 0.62 to 0.66, indicating that the policy improved the satisfaction of tourists and stakeholders
;

税率优化实施政策后,税率从0.7756降低到0.7703,虽然变化不大,但表明政策在税收方面进行了优化,可能有助于减轻企业和个人的负担。
Tax rate optimization: After the implementation of the policy, the tax rate was reduced from 0.7756 to 0.7703, although the change is not large, but it indicates that the policy has been optimized in terms of taxation, which may help reduce the burden on enterprises and individuals.

总结:
Summary:

通过模型分析可知实施将额外税收用于改善环境质量和基础设施建设的政策在多个方面带来了积极影响,包括增加游客数量、提高目标函数值、增加最优收入、减轻基础设施压力、降低环境影响、提高满意度以及优化税率。这些变化表明本文实施的政策在经济、社会和环境等多个维度上都发挥了积极作用,有助于实现朱诺市可持续旅游发展的目标
Modelling shows that the implementation of policies that use additional tax revenues to improve environmental quality and infrastructure development has a positive impact in several ways, including increasing the number of tourists, increasing the value of the objective function, increasing optimal income, reducing pressure on infrastructure, reducing environmental impact, increasing satisfaction, and optimizing tax rates. These changes show that the policies implemented in this paper play a positive role in multiple dimensions such as economic, social, and environmental, and contribute to the goal of sustainable tourism development in the city of Juneau.

Sensitivity Analysis

建立朱诺市可持续旅游发展的模型中,我们依据历史数据拟合出中间变量可持续发展评估值之间的关系,同时利用拟合结果,针对不同的影响因素设置了不同年份的权重组合。但是,在计算的实际情况下,来自不同来源的数据通常由于人工错误和不可预测的因素而波动,这可能会在定程度上影响拟合结果,从而影响模型。因此,为了测试当外部条件受到干扰时我们的模型是否仍然具有稳定性,我们使用灵敏度分析来评估我们的模型。为了模拟不同幅度的数据波动,我们随机生成一组不同权重的数据组合(),具体数据如Table 2:
In the model of sustainable tourism development in Juno City, we fit the relationship between intermediate variables and sustainable development assessment values based on historical data, and used the fitting results to set up different influencing factorsWeight combinations for different years. However, in the actual case of the calculation, the data from different sources often fluctuates due to human error and unpredictable factors, which may affect the fitting results to a certain extent, and thus the model. Therefore, to test whether our model remains stable when external conditions are disturbed, we use sensitivity analysis to evaluate our model. In order to simulate data fluctuations of different amplitudes, we randomly generate a set of data combinations with different weights (), such as Table 2:

权重组合
Weight combinations

Weight combination

M1

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.1

M2

0.4

0.3

0.15

0.15

M3

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

M4

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.1

M5

0.5

0.2

0.15

0.15

M6

0.6

0.3

0.05

0.05

M7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.1

M8

0.6

0.1

0.15

0.15

M9

0.7

0.2

0.05

0.05

M10

0.7

0.1

0.1

0.1

M11

0.8

0.1

0.05

0.05

利用模型分别求解不同权重,将得到的结构归一化后得到结果Figure 6: 

归一化数据后不同组合对应的结果 

利用不同权重变化引起的模型结果改变我们可以评估不同因素对目标函数的影响: 

改变税率对模型的影响: 

对比M1M4M7的数据绘制雷达图,通过比较图形可以得出:当我们更注重游客带来的压力,相应地提升税率时使游客数量减小,此时旅游收入降低,虽然因此带来的交通压力和环境压力减小但是对于可持续发展评价的综合函数也降低因此不利于朱诺市可持续发展。 

税率对可持续旅游发展影响 

改变环境压力和基础设施压力对模型的影响 

对比M3,M4,M5绘制雷达图可以看出通过合理地注重环境压力和基础设施,可以使游客数量小幅提升,在保障总收入M5变化不大的情况下,综合函数有显著提升,保障经济收益的同时降低了环境社区影响,结果表明通过平衡经济和社区生态环境,可以实现朱诺市可持续发展 

环境压力基础设施对可持续发展的影响 

改变居民满意度对模型的影响 

对比M1,M6,M7绘制雷达图可以看出,当我们合理注重居民满意度时,可以实现保证收入小幅增加的同时,使综合函数增加结果表明合理地注重居民满意度可以在保证旅游收入的同时实现朱诺市可持续发展。 

总结 

可以看出,尽管数据中有一定的波动,但我们的模型仍然从定的角度给出了类似的结果,也就是说,如果追求保护生态环境和降低基础设施压力经济牺牲是在短期内做出的,但是对于可持续旅游发展的战略目标,它具有长远的经济影响可能在未来以帮助旅游经济收入以更快的速度实现更好的增长这正是可持续发展的本质 

政策建议 

利用结果分析和灵敏度分析,我们认为提出以下措施可以有效促进朱诺市可持续旅游的发展: 

控制游客数量:旅游旺季期间接待的游客总量最佳110.5(万)为了减小环境压力和基础设施负担。建议实施游客流量管理,限制每日游客数量,确保平衡收入与资源负担。或者调整游客税费:最佳游客税0.7703调整率可以帮助合理调控游客数量,同时为环境保护和基础设施建设提供资金支持 

加强环境保护:随着游客数量增加,环境影响加大。建议加大环保投资,提升景区绿色管理,减少环境负担,确保可持续发展 

优化基础设施:基础设施负担随着游客数量增加而上升。应加强基础设施建设特别是在游客流量时段,保障游客体验和城市运转 

综合效益最大化:确保游客数量、税费和资源负担之间的平衡,推动“绿色旅游’政策,提高旅游质量和整体效益。 

基于可持续发展旅游模型推广北京市可持续旅游模型 

为了进一步验证模型,我们将推广到其它过度旅游的城市,本文中选取北京市作为模型推广的研究对象,同时结合新目的地的特点对模型进行调整和优化。下面是模型推广和优化的具体过程。 

目的地特点分析 

旅游结构差异:相较于朱诺市门登霍尔冰川雨林、观鲸等自然景观为主要旅游景点,北京市的旅游目的地主要以古建筑和历史遗迹为主因此Q1模型中的利用税率调整游客数量情况下改为通过门票差异定价改变游客数量更为合理 

旅游特点分析:通过比较朱诺市和北京市的旅游特点可以得出北京市的旅游人数远大于朱诺市旅游人数,同时北京市旅游目的地更多因此存在局部旅游人数更多的景点和客流量较少的景点,人数密度不平衡。对于交通等基础设施的压力会增加。因此对于考虑不同旅游景点的游客人数对当地环境基础设施的影响问题需要进行合理调整 

可持续旅游发展模型调整 

根据北京市的特点分析,我们对模型进行以下调整: 

变量调整:根据北京市多旅游景点的特点引入新变量游客密度代替游客数量作为新的决策变量,同时考虑多旅游目的地 

Explanation:北京市相较于朱诺市旅游景点之间的热度差异化较大和旅游人数更多因此利用游客密度描述旅游带来的压力等更为合理,引入多旅游目的地可以更加符合实际 

影响关系调整:根据北京市旅游景点特点,修改基础消费高低以及景区知名度为影响游客数量的主要影响因素 

Explanation:北京具有更多的旅游景点,本文利用政策将游客从热门景点引导到游客较少景点,以缓解热门景区过度拥挤。游客密度主要由于目的地基础消费高低以及景区知名度影响 

基于DCM可持续旅游模型 

考虑到北京旅游地具有多旅游目的地,因此为了评估不同旅游政策对游客选择以及最终可持续旅游模型的影响我们使用离散选择模型(DCM)进行建模。 

Notations 

模型2中使用的主要变量如Table 3: 

Notations used in Model 2 

Symbol

Description

Unit

总游客密度
Total visitor density

--

景区的面积
The area of the first scenic spot.

--

游客在第景区的基础消费
Tourists' basic spending in the first scenic spot

--

景区的知名度
The popularity of the first scenic spot

--

景区的游客密度注意:
Visitor density in the first scenic area (note).

--

景区的居民满意度
Resident satisfaction in the first scenic spot

--

景区的收入
Income from the first scenic spot

--

景区的基础设施压力
Infrastructure pressure in the first scenic spot

--

景区的环境压力
Environmental pressure on the first scenic spot

--

景区的实际吸引力
The actual attraction of the first scenic spot

---

景区基础消费的动态调整系数
The dynamic adjustment coefficient of the basic consumption of the first scenic spot

--

基础消费占比总消费的系数
The coefficient of the proportion of basic consumption to total consumption

--

景区的动态基础消费
Dynamic basic consumption of the first scenic spot

--

景区游客动态基础消费
Dynamic basic consumption of tourists in scenic spots ().

游客的消费与景区知名度和因政策引起的景区消费动态调整系数有关,关系为:
The consumption of tourists is related to the popularity of scenic spots and the dynamic adjustment coefficient of scenic spot consumption caused by policies, and the relationship is as follows:

景区收入
Scenic area income ().

任务1中的模型相似,每个景区收入与游客的密度居民满意度等有关,关系式为
Similar to the model in task 1, the income of each scenic spot is related to the density of tourists, resident satisfaction, etc., and the relationship is:

其中由实际查阅数据所得。
Among them, it is obtained from the actual access to the data.

景区基础设施压力(
Pressure on scenic infrastructure ().

根据任务1中的模型分析可得9[11]基础设施压力为:
According to the model analysis in task 1, 9 [11] shows that the infrastructure pressure is:

其中
among others.

景区环境压力(
Scenic area environmental pressure ().

利用任务中的模型分析知,景区环境压力为:
Based on the model analysis in the task, it is known that the environmental pressure of the scenic spot is:

其中
among others.

居民满意度(
Resident satisfaction ().

居民满意度与游客密度的关系如公式:
The relationship between resident satisfaction and visitor density is as follows:

其中为居民满意度衰减系数
Among them is the attenuation coefficient of residents' satisfaction.

景区实际吸引力()
The actual attraction of the scenic spot ().

景区实际吸引力为:
The actual attraction of the scenic spot is:

本文中分别为:
In this article, they are:

每个景区游客选择的概率()
The probability of each scenic spot being chosen by tourists ().

每个景区的游客密度(
Visitor density () in each scenic area

景区的游客密度与景区实际吸引力有关,可以用公式描述:
The tourist density of the scenic area is related to the actual attractiveness of the scenic spot, which can be described by the formula:

目标函数
Objective function

本文主要利用差异化定价和政策调控影响景区中游客分配密度,希望实现最大化旅游收入的同时减小基础设施压力和环境影响,因此每个景区的综合目标函数为:
This paper mainly uses differentiated pricing and policy regulation to affect the distribution density of tourists in scenic spots, hoping to maximize tourism revenue while reducing infrastructure pressure and environmental impact, so the comprehensive objective function of each scenic spot is as follows

本文中分别为:
In this article, they are:

因此多景区可持续发展的综合目标函数为
Therefore, the comprehensive objective function for the sustainable development of multi-scenic spots is:

Data Description

通过查阅北京市旅游局官网等网站,我们得到了数据Table 4:
By consulting the official website of the Beijing Municipal Tourism Administration and other websites, we have obtained data such as Table 4::

北京市数据[15]
Beijing City Data [15].

Symbol

Description

Unit

400/万平方
400/10,000 square meters

Yuan()

--

--

基于SA求解北京市可持续发展模型
Based on SA, the sustainable development model of Beijing was solved

基于非线性规划我们的目标函数为
Based on the nonlinear programming, our objective function is:

是取决于的函数,优化目标为使取最大值,以为决策变量利用模拟退火算法求解,得到最大值为1.4765,此时对应的
is a function that depends on, and the optimization goal is to take the maximum value, and the decision variable is solved by the simulated annealing algorithm to obtain the maximum value of 1.4765, which corresponds to :

每个景点对应的综合函数分别:
The comprehensive function corresponding to each attraction is respectively:

结果分析
Analysis of results

利用模型求解得到的结果可以得出,对于多景区旅游的城市,由于景区对游客存在不同的吸引力,因此为了平衡各景区的游客,我们可以采用差异化定价的策略,例如调高热门景点(故宫)基础消费114.6%小幅增加中等热度的景点基础消费(如颐和园35.70%,北海公园48.78%同时对于冷门景点万寿寺我们对其基础消费进行细微的调整,同时利用政策宣传等提高其景区实际吸引力模型实现了减缓热门景点旅游压力的同时增加了冷门景点的游客量,在保障景区旅游收入的同时,有效实现了对目的地北京市可持续发展旅游的促进。结果再次证明了任务1中建立模型的有效性,可持续旅游发展模型表现出令人满意的稳定性。
Using the results obtained by the model, it can be concluded that for cities with multi-scenic spots, because the scenic spots have different attractions to tourists, in order to balance the tourists in each scenic spot, we can adopt the strategy of differentiated pricing. For example, the basic consumption of popular attractions (Forbidden City) will be increased by 1146%, and the basic consumption of moderately popular attractions (such as the Summer Palace 35) will be slightly increased70%, Beihai Park 4878%), and at the same time for the unpopular attractions (Wanshou Temple) we have itThe basic consumption will be adjusted slightly, and at the same time, the actual attractiveness of its scenic spots will be improved by using policy publicity. The model has reduced the tourism pressure of popular scenic spots and increased the number of tourists in unpopular scenic spots, which effectively promoted the sustainable development of tourism in Beijing, the destination, while ensuring the tourism income of scenic spots. The results once again demonstrate the effectiveness of the model established in Task 1, and the sustainable tourism development model shows satisfactory stability.

Model Evaluation and Further Discussion

Strengths

Comprehensive:最大的优势在于模型综合考虑了各种因素的影响实现了在最大化了经济收益的同时最大程度地保护气候,环境和居民幸福生活
Comprehensive: The biggest advantage is that the model comprehensively considers the influence of various factors, so as to maximize the economic benefits while protecting the climate, environment and residents' happiness to the greatest extent

Rational:基于历史数据得到隐形成本与决策变量之间的关系是合理的,可以在考虑当地地域特点的前提下更好地描述各种因素对城市可持续旅游发展的影响
Rational: Based on historical data, the relationship between hidden costs and decision variables is reasonable, and the impact of various factors on the development of sustainable urban tourism can be better described under the premise of considering local regional characteristics.

Credible:我们的模型产生了相对令人满意的结果,通过对比是否实施额外收入用于保护环境和基础设施建设的措施对模型的影响,我们得出了保护环境和促进基础设施建设不仅可以降低环境和基础设施压力,还可以提高经济收入,增强居民满意度。同时在推广应用到其它过度旅游城市时模型也表现出较好的适用性
Credible: Our model yields relatively satisfactory results, and by comparing the impact on the model of whether or not to implement measures to protect the environment and build infrastructure, we conclude that protecting the environment and promoting infrastructure can be more than thatReducing pressure on the environment and infrastructure can also increase economic income and enhance resident satisfaction. At the same time, the model also showed good applicability when it was applied to other over-tourism cities.

Robust:通过敏感性分析,可以证明模型在改变不同权重因素的扰动下仍具有有效性
Robust: Through sensitivity analysis, it can be proved that the model is still effective under the perturbation of changing different weight factors;

Intuitional:模型通过了灵敏度测试展现出其稳定性从工作流程图到优化因素约束条件的选择再到政策建议,以及模型的推广应用,我们利用可靠的数据和清晰的逻辑分析展现模型的合理和优越
Intuitional: The model has been tested for sensitivity and has shown its stability, from workflow diagrams to the selection of optimization factors and constraints to policy recommendations and the generalization of the model, using reliable data and clarityThe logical analysis shows the rationality and superiority of the model.

Weaknesses

在考虑其它因素对模型的影响时,我们忽略了次要因素的影响,只考虑主要因素对可持续发展模型的影响,这可能对可持续性发展评估的结果产生细微的影响
When considering the impact of other factors on the model, we ignore the influence of secondary factors and only consider the impact of major factors on the sustainability model, which may have a subtle impact on the results of the sustainability assessment.

忽略了景点排队效应:游客选择是否进入一个景点,收到景点的拥挤程度和等候时间等的影响,我们忽略了排队效应对游客的影响。
Ignoring the queuing effect at the attraction: tourists choose whether to enter an attraction, receive the congestion level of the attraction, wait time, etc., and we ignore the impact of the queuing effect on tourists.

Further Discussion

在任务12中的模型建立中,我们模型游客行为是静态的,即所有变量都是固定的,且随着时间或外部环境变化而变化。实际上,游客的选择、偏好和行为会随着时间、季节、天气等因素发生变化。因此针对未来模型的优化,我们考虑引入游客行为的动态性影响,将模型中的游客行为参数引入时间变化或季节性变化的因素。例如,游客选择不同景点的概率可能会受到季节、天气、节假日等因素的影响。加入时序分析使用时间序列模型或动态系统模型来模拟游客流量的季节性波动和行为变化。
In the modelling in tasks 1,2, we model visitor behavior to be static, i.e., all variables are fixed and do not change over time or the external environment. In fact, tourists' choices, preferences, and behaviors change with factors such as time, season, weather, and more. Therefore, for the optimization of the future model, we consider the dynamic influence of tourist behavior, and introduce the tourist behavior parameters in the model into the factors of time change or seasonal change. For example, the probability of a visitor choosing a different attraction may be affected by factors such as season, weather, holidays, etc. Add time series analysis to simulate seasonal fluctuations and behavioral changes in visitor flow using time series models or dynamic system models.

Conclusion

我们保障地区旅游收入和保护生态环境,减缓基础设施压力,保障居民满意度之间开发了一个权衡模型 

我们以朱诺市可持续旅游发展最优为目标,通过调整税率以改变游客数量来实现提高收入,减小环境压力和基础设施压力,同时提高居民满意度的目的,同时以旅客、环境和基础设施最大承载量为约束条件,通过制定将额外收入用于保护环境和减缓基础设施压力的支出计划,对比没有实施计划的结果,模型展现了实施计划后可以带来游客数量增加,同时环境压力和基础设施压力得到了减小,居民满意度提升的效果,综合函数增大也展现制定的额外支出计划更有利于朱诺市可持续发展同时对于模型我们进行了灵敏度分析,管数据中有一定的波动,但我们的模型仍然从定的角度给出了类似的结果,也就是说,如果更加重视保护生态环境和降低基础设施压力,经济牺牲是在短期内做出的,但是对于可持续旅游发展的战略目标,它具有长远的经济影响可能在未来以帮助旅游经济收入以更快的速度实现更好的增长这正是可持续发展的本质。同时如果合理地设置环境保护权重,可以实现在保护环境减缓基础设施压力的同时提高游客数量,促进经济收入增长,这表明利用合理的策略,可以同时实现的环境保护和促进旅游发展 

同时我们将模型应用到了另一个过度旅游影响城市,通过调整模型适应城市实际旅游状况。我们模型求解得出,对于北京市过度旅游的情况,可以通过对于热门景区和冷门景区差异化定价结合额外收入用于宣传冷门景区,提高其实际吸引力带来更多游客的手段实现对游客分布的动态调整,在保障综合收入的同时减缓了景区环境和基础设施压力 

结合模型分析的结果和对于各种措施影响的分析,我们向朱诺市旅游委员会写了一份的备忘录,对朱诺市可持续发展提供了可实行的建议。 

MEMORRANDUM 

To: The Tourist Council of Juneau 

From: Team 2507120, MCM 2025 

Subject: 基于可持续旅游发展模型的朱诺市旅游发展预测 

Data: Tuesday, January 28, 2025 

Dear The Tourist Council of Juneau 

根据我们开发的可持续旅游发展模型及其应用结果,现向贵委员会提交有关朱诺市旅游可持续发展的建议和预测。通过多目标规划与模拟退化算法,我们对朱诺市旅游的收入、环境压力、基础设施承载力及居民满意度进行了综合评估,并提出以下几项关键策略: 

预测结果概述 

根据模型分析,实施将额外税收用于保护环境降低基础设施压力的计划后,朱诺市在多方面表现出积极变化: 

游客数量增加:实施政策后,游客数量增加了约0.91万人,表明政策在吸引游客方面具有积极效果。 

收入增长:税率优化后的收入增加了约183.015元,显示出政策对经济收入的显著提升作用。 

环境压力减少:通过加强环境保护措施,环境影响减少了约63493.21,体现了保护生态环境在促进经济发展中的重要作用。 

基础设施压力减轻:政策实施后,基础设施压力减少了约1968.36,展示了优化资源分配对改善旅游服务质量的效果。 

居民满意度提高:居民满意度从0.62提高至0.66,表明政策增强了当地社区的认同感与支持度。同时近一步促进游客的体验与回流,从而提升旅游经济的长期发展潜力 

关键措施建议 

主要挑战
Key challenges:

建议措施
Recommended Actions:

措施效果
Effect of the measure

游客过多
Too many tourists

实施游客流量管理模型建议的最佳游客接待数量为110.5万人。可通过调整游客税率(最佳税率为0.7703)来控制流量,
Implement visitor flow management: The model recommends an optimal number of visitors of 1,105,000. The flow can be controlled by adjusting the tourist tax rate (the best tax rate is 0.7703).

合理调控了游客人数
The number of tourists has been reasonably regulated

过度旅游造成环境破坏
Overtourism causes environmental damage

增加环保投资通过将额外支出用于保护环境或强化景区绿色管理措施可以有效降低环境压力
Increase investment in environmental protection: Environmental pressure can be effectively reduced by spending extra on environmental protection or strengthening green management measures in scenic spots

环境压力降低
Reduced ambient pressure

基础设施压力过大
Infrastructure is under too much pressure

加强基础设施建设在旅游旺季及高流量时段,尤其是交通、住宿及公共设施的升级,以保障游客体验和城市运转效率
Strengthen infrastructure construction: During peak tourist seasons and high-traffic periods, especially the upgrading of transportation, accommodation and public facilities, to ensure the tourist experience and the efficiency of urban operations

基础设施压力降低
Reduced pressure on infrastructure

社会成本增加
The social cost increases

利用额外收入补贴社会福利
Use the extra income to subsidize social welfare

居民满意度提高
Resident satisfaction increases

综上所述,通过合理调控游客数量、优化税费政策、加强环境保护与基础设施建设,朱诺市有望在保障旅游业增长的同时,确保生态环境的可持续性。我们建议贵委员会尽快采纳这些策略,并在实际操作中灵活调整,以实现朱诺市旅游业的长期健康发展。
In summary, by rationally regulating the number of tourists, optimizing tax and fee policies, and strengthening environmental protection and infrastructure construction, Juno City is expected to ensure the sustainability of the ecological environment while ensuring the growth of tourism. We recommend that your committee adopt these strategies as soon as possible and adapt them flexibly in practice to achieve the long-term healthy development of the tourism industry in Juno City.

敬请贵委员会审议并提出宝贵意见
I appreciate the Committee's consideration and valuable comments.

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