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Macro Charts

Global Markets – Weekly Review 40

A perfect setup — now in motion.

Macro Charts
Feb 02, 2025
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“Know what you own, and know why you own it.”

— Peter Lynch

130 updated Charts & Commentary on all major Markets — for your weekend reading.

“Don’t start the week without it”


NEW DEVELOPMENTS

  • STOCKS: Volatility picking up on schedule.

    • “Losses will continue until morale improves.”

    • International Markets leading the charge.

    • Full list of Buy/Sell setups + Key levels for next week.

  • RATES & FX: Tracking the Trend.

  • METALS: A perfect setup — now in motion.

  • Complete review of key Market Signals.

  • Full Charts & Commentary:

    • Core Models

    • Global Equities & Sectors

    • Volatility

    • Rates & Credit

    • Currencies

    • Commodities

    • Bitcoin

Let’s get started:


SECTION 1

CORE MODELS & DATA


Core Risk is following the ideal sequence:

*The risk of choppy & rangebound action remains HIGH.

*The risk of a bigger correction remains relatively LOW.

Put/Call Ratios are the most extreme in three years.

  • At the Index level, Stocks may need several weeks of choppy & rangebound action to increase conviction that a bigger Top is forming.

  • For now: focusing attention on potential Tactical Shorts for Sectors overbought at resistance vs. Tactical Longs for Sectors oversold at support. (Charts presented in detail in Section 2.)

  • For new subscribers, our Core 2025 “Hurricane Year” Strategy was published in December’s Special Report.

  • So far, Stocks and Sectors are behaving in line with prior Hurricane Years.

  • The high-Sharpe “easy days” are over…

High-Low Oscillators remain on active Buy signals and are still rising.

*Stocks may get choppy Short-Term, but our ideal scenario / base case is a rally back to the overbought zone in the next 2-3 months (stay tuned).

S&P MACD Profile remains constructive since the JAN 14 Buy signal — but is losing Momentum.

S&P 50dma Breadth is stalling at “neutral” and remains Tactically constructive.

*Stocks may get choppy Short-Term, but our ideal scenario / base case is a rally back to the overbought zone in the next 2-3 months (stay tuned).

S&P 20dma Breadth remains Short-Term overbought:

  • As we wrote in last week’s Review: “After a torrid 2-week rally, this could lead to a pause.”

  • The red moving average may be turning DOWN, suggesting more Short-Term chop ahead.

McClellan Oscillator is following the pattern discussed last week:

  • Coming after a Tactical low, this oversold-to-overbought pattern sometimes led to pullbacks / consolidations.

  • Similar to August 2024 (RED BOX) — at the time, Stocks also rallied “straight to the highs” — then S&P pulled back over the next weeks, retesting and filling open gaps for an tactical “Buy the dip”.

  • In Section 2, we’ll update the “Buy the dip” scenario from last week’s charts.

Summation Index remains on a Buy signal — suggesting the bigger picture is still “ok”, despite the increasing Short-Term risks.

CTA Equity Positioning remains underweight — a constructive setup to “Buy the dips” if seen.

S&P Sentiment remains muted, with room to recover in time.

VIX Sentiment remains extremely high — now back to **50**.

*Reiterating: Volatility expectations have room to drop significantly from here (a tailwind for Stocks).

*Don’t expect Stocks to collapse here — better to stay flexible, and be willing to step in at the range lows.

*We’ll cover levels of interest in Section 2.

CTA Rates Positioning continues to suggest Bond Yields are just beginning to Trend lower, after turning down from a big topping signal.

*This continues to track as a potential major inflection point. Bias remains to Buy dips in Bonds (key levels in Section 2).

Bond Sentiment continues tracking a potential major turn.


BIG PICTURE: ISSUES REMAIN

Several imbalances are likely to impact Stocks later this year:

Equity Flows since the U.S. Election have shattered all prior records — and could be at risk.

*Especially as Tech and Semis begin to lose Momentum — more on this in Section 2.

Speculative Option Volume just exceeded the late 2021 Top — only the Meme Bubble Top went higher. Stocks should (at best) remain in this range for a while.

Speculation Index remains an important signal for *most* Stocks to remain rangebound — and *eventually* a larger correction could take hold.

Option Skews and Gamma continue to display similar messages — don’t expect “runaway returns” here. This is a tired, crowded Market…

When Long-Term Breadth breaks down, it would likely begin a large correction.

  • As discussed in the December Special Report, our core plan for opportunistic Shorts remains focused on the weakest areas developing bounce failures — potentially signaling the year’s biggest decliners.

  • As we’ll show in Section 2, the Sell list is already growing…


Macro Charts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.


SECTION 2

KEY TECHNICAL CHARTS


STOCKS

Volatility picking up on schedule.

“Losses will continue until morale improves.”


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International Markets still leading the charge.

The potential is clear — International Markets could significantly outperform the U.S. this year.

China hasn’t fully joined the rally yet — and this week MAY have been a trap.

Looking for more consolidation here:

Japan — we continue to watch for a potential “Big Short” setup later this year.


RATES

Tracking the Trend.


CURRENCIES

Tracking the Trend.


OIL & ENERGY

An important Top and more deterioration — look out.


METALS

A perfect setup — now in motion.

***Silver’s Trend initiation breakout may be underway:***

QUESTION: “If one missed the initial entry, how can they monitor for a pullback?”

One possible option — watch key resistance and retracements for a *potential* secondary Buy/Add entry:


BITCOIN


FINAL THOUGHTS

The Stock Market’s main job here is to chew everyone up in the range.

As the headline picture suggests: robots are running amok, shredding breakout-buyers and breakdown-sellers equally.

Losses will continue until morale improves.

We recognize this environment and adapt to it:

✅ Key Equity Sectors bounced into resistance and may have failed, potentially setting up contrarian / Tactical Sells. Some are already leading the way lower.

✅ Prior leaders (Semis, Tech) are trading sloppy into support, potentially setting up contrarian / Tactical Buys.

Overall, few things are working — in this environment, “Know what you own, and know why you own it.”

Focus on key support/resistance levels. Be flexible at the extremes. And be prepared to get active as reversals trigger. We’ll follow up as they do.

While Equities go through the shredder — Precious Metals, Bitcoin, Rates and Currencies continue to build enormous potential energy.

Some of these Markets are already leading the way higher.

If the others push just a little further… everything changes.

Thanks for reading.

Onwards and upwards, -MC


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Macro Charts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

✅The next Global Markets Weekly Review will be published FEB 8-9.

✅As always: if key Signals trigger, we’ll publish a Mid-Week Update.

✅HISTORY: WHAT WE LEARNED IN 2024 — MC & SUBSTACK.

✅ABOUT: macrocharts.substack.com/about.

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Pedro Saboia
Pedro Saboia
13h

Thanks MC!

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