Global Supply Chains and International Political Risk Management 
全球供应链和国际政治风险管理 

Weekly Teaching Breakdown
每周教学明细

Week 1: Introduction  
第 1 周：简介  

Outline 
大纲

The purpose of week one is, firstly, to introduce students to the subject area, its key themes and the issues that it will cover. This includes matters relating to national political-cultural-economic difference and why these matter in supply chain terms; the risks that these differences can generate (especially when firms are operating outside of their home base); and how these differences can be codified, measured, and managed. As well as describing the different elements of the module, the introductory session starts to set out some of the connections to provide students with a roadmap of what is to follow. Further, this session will talk the students through the module resources and where to find them, as well as set some expectations around students’ own responsibility for their learning.
第一周的目的是，首先，向学生介绍学科领域、其关键主题和将涵盖的问题。这包括与国家政治-文化-经济差异相关的问题 ，以及为什么这些差异在供应链方面很重要;社会关系差异可能产生的风险（尤其是当公司在其总部之外运营时）; 以及如何编纂、衡量和管理这些差异。 除了描述模块的不同元素外，介绍性会议还开始列出一些联系，为学生提供要遵循的路线图。 此外，本次会议将向学生介绍模块资源以及在哪里可以找到它们，并围绕学生自己对学习的责任设定一些期望。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Be familiar with broad themes and issues addressed in the module
熟悉本模块中涉及的广泛主题和问题

Understand how the module, itself, is structured and how the issues scaffold
了解模块本身是如何构建的，以及问题如何搭建

Understand the expectations around your responsibility for your learning
了解 您对学习责任的期望

Know what resources are available to support your learning, and where they are to can located
了解哪些资源可用于支持您的学习，以及它们的位置

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Baumol, W., Litan, R. and Schramm, C. (2007) Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity, New Haven and London, Yale University Press
Baumol， W.， Litan， R. and Schramm， C. （2007） Good Capitalism， Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity， 纽黑文和伦敦，耶鲁大学出版社

Manners-Bell, J. (2020) Supply Chain Risk Management: How to Design and Manage Resilient Supply Chains, 3^rd Edition, Kogan Page
Manners-Bell， J. （2020） 供应链风险管理：如何设计和管理弹性供应链，第 3 版，Kogan Page

Sheffi, Y. (2015) The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England, The MIT Press
Sheffi， Y. （2015） The Power of Resilience： How the Best Companies How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected，马萨诸塞州剑桥和英国伦敦，麻省理工学院出版社

McKeller, R. (2010) A Short Guide to Political Risk, Taylor Francis Group
McKeller， R. （2010） 政治风险简明指南，泰勒弗朗西斯集团

PART ONE: NATIONAL POLITICAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
第一部分：国家政治经济制度

Week 2: The Puzzle of Economic Performance 
第 2 周： 经济绩效 之谜

Outline 
大纲

This week we introduce the idea of economic performance, what it is and why it matters, especially when it comes to issues of economic growth. We look at the importance of relative factor endowments, their efficient exploitation and how this drives long-term economic growth. In particular, the importance of property rights and their impact on economic incentives are examined. Then we examine day-to-day economic management and its impact on short-term fluctuations in output, employment, and prices. Here, we look at the role of government (both positive and negative) in driving economic performance.
本周我们介绍了经济表现的概念，它是什么以及为什么它很重要，尤其是在涉及经济增长问题时。我们研究了相对要素禀赋的重要性、其有效开发以及这如何推动长期经济增长。特别是，研究了财产权的重要性及其对经济激励的影响。 然后，我们研究了日常经济管理及其对 产出、就业和价格短期波动的影响。在这里，我们研究了政府在推动经济表现方面的作用（包括积极的和消极的）。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Understand what is meant by national economic performance and why it matters to firms
了解国家经济表现的含义 以及为什么它对公司很重要

Appreciate the difference between long-run and short-run drivers of economic performance
了解经济表现的长期和短期驱动因素之间的差异

Understand the importance of government’s role in driving this process
了解政府在推动这一过程方面的作用的重要性

Be able to draw a distinction between the constructive and destructive part that governments have to play
能够区分政府必须 发挥 的建设性和破坏性作用

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Baumol, W., Litan, R. and Schramm, C. (2007) Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity, New Haven and London, Yale University Press, pp.35-59 and 93-132
Baumol， W.， Litan， R. 和 Schramm， C. （2007） Good Capitalism， Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity， New Haven and London， 耶鲁大学出版社，第 35-59 页和 93-132 页

Olson, M. and Kahkonen, S. (2000) ‘Introduction’ in M. Olson and S. Kahkonen, A Not-So-Dismal Science, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp.1-36.
Olson， M. 和 Kahkonen， S. （2000） M. Olson 和 S. Kahkonen 的“引言”，A Not-So-Dismal Science，牛津，牛津大学出版社，第 1-36 页。

Krugman, P. (1994) Peddling Prosperity, New York, W.W.Norton and Company, pp.55-106
Krugman， P. （1994） Peddling Prosperity， New York， W.W.Norton and Company， pp.55-106 元

ADDITIONAL READING
补充阅读

Olsen, M. (2000) Power and Prosperity, New York, Basic Books.
Olsen， M. （2000） 权力与繁荣，纽约，Basic Books。

Ekelund, R. And Tollison, R. (1997) Politicized Economies, Texas, Texas A&M University Press, pp.27-46
埃克伦德 R.和 Tollison， R. （1997） 政治化经济，德克萨斯州，德克萨斯 A&M 大学出版社，第 27-46 页

Week 3: Comparative National Economic Performance 
第 3 周：比较国家 经济表现 

Outline 
大纲

In week three we start get to grips with the part that national differences play in relative economic performance. Again, we look at some of key structural factors. We look at four distinct national political-economic types ((a) State-guided systems; (b) Oligarchic systems; (c) Big-firm systems; and (d) Entrepreneurial Systems) to understand why some economies do better than others. Then we look at differences in national economic philosophy, and how this impacts on the day-to-day regulation and performance of an economy.
在第三周，我们开始了解国家差异在相对经济表现中的作用。 同样，我们来看看一些关键的结构性因素。 我们研究了四种不同的国家政治经济类型 （（a） 国家指导系统;（b） 寡头制度;（c） 大公司系统;以及 （d） 创业系统），以理解为什么一些经济体比其他经济体表现得更好。然后，我们研究国家经济哲学的差异，以及这对经济的 日常监管和绩效有何影响。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Understand how national political-economic systems differ in terms of their approach to economic management and development
了解国家政治经济体系在经济管理和发展方法方面的差异

Understand why these differences might matter in terms of the results that they deliver
了解为什么这些差异对它们提供的结果可能很重要

Start to appreciate the fact picking a ‘best type’ is an exercise in understanding the trade-offs that each type involves
开始认识到选择“最佳类型”是理解每种类型所涉及的权衡的练习

Understand that choosing a ‘best typ’e may also involve understanding where a country sits in terms of its developmental cycle.
要明白，选择“最佳类型”还可能涉及了解一个国家在其发展周期中所处的位置。

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING 

Baumol, W., Litan, R. and Schramm, C. (2007) Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity, New Haven and London, Yale University Press, pp.60-92
Baumol， W.， Litan， R. 和 Schramm， C. （2007） Good Capitalism， Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity， New Haven and London， 耶鲁大学出版社，第 60-92 页

Olsen, M. (2000) Power and Prosperity, New York, Basic Books., pp 

ADDIITONAL READING
附加阅读

Soskice, D. (1999) ‘Divergent Production Regimes: Coordinated and Uncoordinated Market Economies in the 1980s and 1990s’ in H. Kitchelt et al (eds.) Continuity and Change in Contemporary Capitalism, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp.101-34. 

Whitley, R. (1999) ‘The Nature of Business Systems and their Institutional Structuring’ in Divergent Capitalisms: The Social Structuring and Change of Business Systems, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp.31-64
Whitley， R. （1999） “商业系统的本质及其制度结构”，载于《分化资本主义：社会结构与商业系统的变化》，牛津，牛津大学出版社，第31-64页

Week 4: From National to International (and Regional)
第 4 周：从国内到国际（和地区）

Outline  

In week four we shift our focus from the structural difference between different national political-economic systems to look at differences in policy. We begin by looking at national approaches to industrial development, trade, regulation, and day-today macro-economic management (i.e. managing the trade-offs between growth, employment and price control). We then switch focus to national attempts to coordinate their approaches to the challenges that they face, first through international bodies like the WTO, World Bank and IMF, and then through regional initiatives like the European Union, NAFTA, ASEAN and COMESA. Here, we ask questions around whether the policy convergence around trade and money is reducing the relevance of the nation-state in terms of the regulation of its affairs.
在第四周， 我们将重点从不同国家政治经济体系之间的结构性差异转移到政策差异上。我们首先研究国家对工业发展、贸易、监管和当今宏观经济管理的方法。e. 管理增长、就业和价格控制之间的权衡）。然后，我们将重点转移到国家尝试上，协调他们应对所面临的挑战，首先是通过 WTO、世界银行和国际货币基金组织等国际机构，然后是通过欧盟、北美自由贸易协定、东盟和东南非共同市场等区域倡议。在这里，我们围绕 围绕贸易和货币的政策趋同是否正在降低民族国家在监管其事务方面的相关性提出问题。

Learning objectives  

By the end of this week you will:   

Understand how national political-economic systems differ in terms of their day-to-day approach to economic management and development, especially as it concerns counter-cyclical growth strategies, employment and prices. 

Understand why, over the last 30+ years we have been a move away from purely national strategies of economic management and development 

Be able to describe the key features for these integrative initiatives 

Be able to provide an assessment about the likely impact of these initiatives on national strategies of economic coordination. 

Activities for this week  

CORE READING - ECONOMICS
核心阅读 - 经济学

Krugman, P. (1994) Peddling Prosperity, New York, W.W.Norton and Company, pp.23-54
Krugman， P. （1994） Peddling Prosperity， New York， W.W.Norton and Company， pp.23-54 元

Rogoff, K. (2022) ‘The Age of inflation: Easy money, Hard Choice’ in Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec
Rogoff， K. （2022） “通货膨胀时代：宽松的货币，艰难的选择”，《外交事务》，11 月/12 月

CORE READING - CONVERGENCE
核心读数 - CONVERGENCE

Fukuyama, F. (1989) ‘The End of History’, The National Interest, 16, pp3-18
Fukuyama， F. （1989） “历史的终结”，《国家利益》，第 16 期，第3-18 页

Huntington, S.P. (1996) ‘The West Unique, Not Universal’, Foreign Affairs, 75(6), pp.28-46
Huntington， S.P. （1996） “西方独特，非普遍”，《外交事务》，75（6），第 28-46 页

ADDITIONAL READING
补充阅读

Boyer, R. (1996) ‘The Convergence Hypothesis Revisited: Globalization but Still the Century of Nations’, in Suzanne Berger and Ronald Dore (eds.), National Diversity and Global Capitalism, Ithaca, NY and London, Ornell University Press, pp.29-59
Boyer， R. （1996） “重新审视趋同假说：全球化但仍然是国家的世纪”，载于Suzanne Berger和Ronald Dore（编辑），《国家多样性和全球资本主义》，伊萨卡，纽约和伦敦，奥内尔大学出版社，第29-59页

Kenworthy, L. (1997) ‘Globalization and Economic Convergence’, Competition and Change, 2, pp.1-64
Kenworthy， L. （1997） “全球化与经济趋同”，《竞争与变革》，第 2 期，第 1-64 页

Week 5: The Evolving International Economic and Security Context
第5 周：不断变化的国际经济和安全环境

Outline 
大纲

Week fives examines the relationship between low and high politics (i.e. economics vs questions of security). The global trade and money order was created against the backdrop of a security stand-off between the West and the former Soviet Union. Essentially, the world divided between a system of deregulated and integrated markets (the West) and a closed system of planning and control (the Soviet Union). The collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the US as a global hegemon in the post-collapse world suggested that the world might be gravitating towards a single global model (embodied in the ideal of the Washington Consensus). However, the recent re-emergence of China has cast doubt on this future, as China has sort to increase its role in writing the ‘economic rules of the game’. Week five examines these efforts, as well as the idea that what we are seeing is the emergence of a bifurcated global order, with one pole defined by the West and a second by China and its partners.
Week fives 研究了低级和高级政治之间的关系（即经济学与安全问题）。全球贸易和货币秩序是在西方和前苏联之间安全对峙的背景下建立的。从本质上讲，世界分为放松管制和一体化的市场体系（西方）和封闭的计划和控制体系（苏联）。苏联的解体和美国在崩溃后的世界中成为全球霸主，这表明世界可能正在被一个单一的全球模式所吸引（体现在华盛顿共识的理想中）。然而，最近中国的重新崛起使人们对未来产生了怀疑，因为中国已经逐渐加强了在制定“游戏经济规则”方面的作用。第五周研究了这些努力，以及我们看到的是一个分叉的全球秩序的出现，其中一极由西方定义，另一极由中国及其伙伴定义。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Understand the close but complex relationship between questions of economic management and matters of great power security
了解经济管理问题与大国安全问题之间密切而复杂的关系

Be able to describe the development and evolution of the international trade and money order since 1945
能够描述 自 1945 年以来国际贸易和货币订单的发展和演变

Understand how the nature of this order was shaped by broader security concerns
了解此命令的性质如何受到更广泛的安全问题的影响

Understand how the collapse of the Soviet Union changed this dynamic
了解苏联的解体如何改变了这种动态

Be able to describe how the emergence of China as a world power is challenging America’s ability to set the rules of the international money and trade order
能够描述中国作为世界大国的崛起如何挑战美国制定国际货币和贸易秩序规则的能力

Be able to provide an informed assessment about what the international money and trading order might look like going forward
能够对国际货币和交易订单的未来可能是什么样子提供明智的评估

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Huntington, S.P. (1993) ‘The Clash of Civilisations?’, Foreign Affairs, 72(3), pp.22-49
Huntington， S.P. （1993） “文明的冲突？”，《外交事务》，72（3），第 22-49 页

Milanovic, B. (2020) ‘The Clash of Capitalisms’ in Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb
Milanovic， B. （2020） 《外交事务》中的“资本主义冲突”，1 月/2 月

Wang, Jisi (2021) ‘The Plot Against China? How Beijing Sees the New Washington Consensus’ in Foreign Affairs, July/Aug
王吉思 （2021） '针对中国的阴谋？北京如何看待《外交事务中的华盛顿新共识》，7 月/8 月

Rosen, D. (2021) ‘China’s Economic Reckoning’ in Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug
Rosen， D. （2021） 《外交事务中的中国经济清算》，7 月/8 月

Ikenberry, G.J. (2022) ‘Why American Power Endures’ in Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec
Ikenberry， G.J. （2022） 《外交事务》中的“为什么美国实力经久不衰”，11 月/12 月

Week 6: Academic and Assessment Support
第 6 周：学术和评估支持

PART TWO (A): UNDERSTANDING AND MAPPING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
第 2 部分 （A）：了解和映射全球供应链风险

Week 7: International Business Risk Codification
第7 周：国际商业风险编纂

Outline 
大纲

In week six we shift our focus from understanding the international business context to understanding how this context impacts on the firm in terms of the management of its global supply chains. We begin by trying to disentangle the concept of risk. We then examine how risk can impact on the firm, particularly as it relates to the management of a firm’s global supply chains. We begin by categorising the main types of threat: (a) strategic; (b) contractual; (c) operational and (d) financial. We then link these areas of threat to the principal risks faced by firms i.e. (a) political-economic; (b) cultural; (c) legal; (d) extra-legal (corruption, piracy, and terrorism); and (e) natural (pandemics, natural disasters, etc.).
在第六周，我们将重点从了解国际商业环境转移到了解这种环境如何影响公司的全球供应链管理。 我们首先尝试解开风险的概念。然后，我们研究了风险如何影响公司，尤其是与公司全球供应链的管理有关时。我们首先对威胁的主要类型进行分类：（a） 战略性; （b） 合同性质的;（c） 运营和 （d） 财务。然后，我们将这些威胁与公司面临的主要风险联系起来，即 （a） 政治经济;（b） 文化;（c） 合法的;（d） 法外（腐败、海盗和恐怖主义）;以及 （e） 自然（流行病、自然灾害等）。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Understand what risk is, what forms it takes and why it matters.
了解什么是风险、风险采取什么形式以及为什么它很重要。

Be able to describe the main risks that firm’s face in terms of their global supply chains
能够描述公司在全球供应链方面面临的主要风险

Be able to describe how the different types of threat (political-economic; contractual; operational; legal; extra-legal; and natural) align with the key areas of supply chain vulnerability
能够描述不同类型的威胁（政治经济、合同、运营、法律、法外和自然）如何与供应链的关键领域保持一致

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Sheffi, Y. (2015) The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England, The MIT Press, pp.1-50
Sheffi， Y. （2015） The Power of Resilience： How the Best Companies How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected， 马萨诸塞州剑桥和英国伦敦， 麻省理工学院出版社， pp.1-50

Manners-Bell, J. (2020) Supply Chain Risk Management: How to Design and Manage Resilient Supply Chains, 3^rd Edition, Kogan Page, pp.4-30
Manners-Bell， J. （2020） 供应链风险管理：如何设计和管理弹性供应链，^第 3 版，Kogan Page，第 4-30 页

Kaplan, R. and Mikes, A. (2012) ‘Managing Risks’, Harvard Business Review, June
Kaplan， R. 和 Mikes， A. （2012） “管理风险”，《哈佛商业评论》，6 月

Simchi-Levi et al (2014) ‘From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply Chain Disruptions’ Harvard Business Review, January-February
Simchi-Levi 等人 （20， 14） “从超级风暴到工厂火灾：管理不可预测的供应链中断”，哈佛商业评论，1-2 月

ADDITIONAL READING
补充阅读

McKeller, R. (2010) A Short Guide to Political Risk, Taylor Francis Group, pp.5-111
McKeller， R. （2010） 政治风险简明指南，泰勒弗朗西斯集团，第 5-111 页

PART TWO (B): MANAGING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
第二部分 （B）：管理全球供应链风险

Week 8: Global Supply Chain Risk Management: Governance
第8 周：全球供应链风险管理：治理

Outline 
大纲

Week 7 divides into two parts. The first part (Lecture) concludes our discussion on the sources of global supply chain risk by addressing questions of measurement and assessment. We then move on to the question of managing global supply chain risk (in the seminar). After providing an overview of the key options we describe the importance of governance in risk mitigation. We show how, ceteris paribus, the higher the strategic, contractual, and operational risk faced by firms, the more likely it is that the firm will want to integrate the activity within its core functions. Understanding differences in national operating context is therefore critical since high risk/high transaction cost environments are likely to call for more costly and robust safeguarding mechanisms than low risk/low transaction cost environments.
第 7 周分为两部分。 第一部分（讲座）通过解决测量和评估问题，结束了我们对全球供应链风险来源的讨论。然后，我们继续讨论管理全球供应链风险的问题（在研讨会中）。 在概述了关键选项之后，我们介绍了 治理在降低风险方面的重要性。我们展示了 公司面临的战略、合同和运营风险越高，公司就越有可能希望将活动整合到其核心职能中。因此，了解国家运营环境的差异至关重要，因为与低风险/低交易成本环境相比，高风险/高交易成本环境可能需要更昂贵和更强大的保护机制。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Learn how to undertake a risk assessment, both in terms of identifying the probability that a critical event will (or will not) happen, and in terms of assessing its impact on different parts of the business
了解如何进行风险评估，包括识别关键事件将（或不会）发生的概率，以及评估其对业务不同部分的影响

Be able to describe the key risk management strategies available to firms seeking to minimise their risks
能够描述寻求将风险降至最低的公司可用的关键风险管理策略

Understand the role of governance in terms of managing risk out, as well as providing resilience for the firm, where they face a critical business event
了解治理在管理风险以及为公司提供弹性方面的作用，当他们面临关键业务事件时

Understand the relationship between specific national operating environments and the optimal governance option
了解特定国家/地区的运营环境与最佳治理选项之间的关系

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING – RISK CODIFICATION
核心阅读 - 风险编纂

McKeller, R. (2010) A Short Guide to Political Risk, Taylor Francis Group, pp.113-73
McKeller， R. （2010） 政治风险简明指南，泰勒弗朗西斯集团，第 1 页。113-73 元

Manners-Bell, J. (2020) Supply Chain Risk Management: How to Design and Manage Resilient Supply Chains, 3^rd Edition, Kogan Page, pp.4-30
Manners-Bell， J. （2020） 供应链风险管理：如何设计和管理弹性供应链，^第 3 版，Kogan Page，第 4-30 页

CORE READING – GOVERNANCE
核心阅读 – 治理

Prahalad, C.K. and Hamel, G. (1990) ‘The Core Competence of the Corporation’, Harvard Business Review, May/June
Prahalad， C.K. 和 Hamel， G. （1990） “公司的核心竞争力”，《哈佛商业评论》，5 月/6 月

Sako, M. and Zylberberg, E. (2019) ‘Supplier Strategy in Global Supply Chains: Shaping Governance and Profiting from Upgrading’, Socio-Economic Review, 17(3), pp.687-707
萨科 M. 和 Zylberberg， E. （2019） “全球供应链中的供应商战略：塑造治理并从升级中获利”，社会经济评论，17（3），页。687-707

Williamson, O. (1991) (‘Comparative Economic Organization: The Analysis of Discrete Structural Alternatives’, Administrative Science Quarterly, 36(June).
威廉姆森，俄亥俄州（1991 年）（'比较经济组织：离散结构替代方案的分析'，《行政科学季刊》，第 36 期（6 月）。

ADDITIONAL READING
补充阅读

Williamson, O. (2000) ‘The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead’, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.38, pp.595-613
威廉姆森，俄亥俄州 （2000） 〈新制度经济学：盘点，展望未来〉，《经济文献杂志》，第38卷，第595-613页

Yul Lee, J. et al (2018) ‘Political Risk, Internal vs Global Value Chain Knowledge, and Subsidiary Operational Integration, Global Strategy Journal, 10, pp.444-72
李煦 J. et al （2018） '政治风险、内部与全球价值链知识以及子公司运营整合，全球战略杂志，10，第 444-72 页

Week 9: Global Supply Chain Risk Management: Planning, Scenario Planning and Risk Detection
第 9 周：全球供应链风险管理：规划、情景规划和风险检测

Outline 
大纲

In this week, we move on from building the risk management capital of an organisation to preparing for specific challenges. This preparation takes two forms. Firstly, planning/scenario planning for specific eventualities so that, should a critical event occur, the organisation already has a strategy in place to deal with it. This can most obviously be encompassed through scenario planning, whereby organisations don’t simply develop stock responses, regardless of the nuances of the circumstances they find themselves in; but rather, they calibrate their responses according to the specifics of the situation. Secondly, the session looks at monitoring and detection, so that a crisis, should it happen, can be picked up early.
本周，我们从建立组织的风险管理资本转向为特定挑战做准备。这种准备有两种形式。首先，针对特定事件进行规划/情景规划，以便在发生关键事件时，组织已经制定了应对策略。这显然可以通过情景规划来包含，即组织不会简单地制定库存响应，而不管他们所处环境的细微差别如何;相反，他们根据具体情况调整了他们的反应。其次，该会议着眼于监控和检测，以便危机发生时可以及早发现。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Learn what scenario-planning is, and what it involves
了解什么是情景规划，以及它涉及什么

Learn how it can be applied to a supply chain context
了解如何将其应用于供应链环境

Learn how to put such a plan together
了解如何将此类计划放在一起

Develop an appreciation of the importance of early detection and how to link early detections to the plans that organisations have developed to cope with risk
认识到早期检测的重要性，以及如何将早期检测与组织为应对风险而制定的计划联系起来

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Phadnis, S., Sheffi, Y. and Caplice, C. (2022) Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios, Palgrave, pp.52-139
Phadnis， S.、Sheffi， Y. 和 Caplice， C. （2022） 动态供应链的战略规划：使用情景为不确定性做准备，帕尔格雷夫，第 52-139 页

Sheffi, Y. (2015) ‘Preparing for Disruptions Through Early Detection’ Sloan Management Review, Fall, pp.31-42
Sheffi， Y. （2015） “通过早期检测为中断做准备”，《斯隆管理评论》，秋季刊，第 31-42 页

Sheffi, Y. (2015) The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England, The MIT Press, pp.129-158 and 189-214
Sheffi， Y. （2015） The Power of Resilience： How the Best Companies How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected，马萨诸塞州剑桥和英国伦敦，麻省理工学院出版社，第 129-158 页和 189-214 页

Week 10: Global Supply Chain Risk Management: Building Resilience and Crisis Management
第10 周：全球供应链风险管理：建立韧性和危机管理

Outline 
大纲

This week we look at how firms build operational and supply chain resilience. This includes preparing a risk register for the main areas of threat; taking mitigating actions to reduce the net risk; preparing credible action plans to cover critical risk events; and putting in place the resources and structures that will allow forms to respond quickly and effectively to a critical event once such an event has occurred. Thereafter, the session looks at what firms should do (and not do) once they find themselves facing an actual crisis.
本周，我们将探讨企业如何建立运营和供应链韧性。 这包括为主要威胁领域准备风险登记册;采取缓解措施以降低净风险;制定 CreDIble 行动计划以涵盖重大风险事件; 以及建立资源和结构，使 Forms 能够在关键事件发生时快速有效地响应此类事件。 此后，会议着眼于公司在发现自己面临实际危机时应该做什么（和不做什么）。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Learn how to put together a risk register and use this register to maintain the vigilance of the firm
了解如何整理风险登记册并使用此登记册来保持公司的警惕性

Be able to think through some of the mitigating actions that firms can take to reduce the net risks that they face
能够仔细考虑公司可以采取的一些缓解措施来降低他们面临的净风险

Understand the importance of building a firms resilience capital in the eventuality that they face a critical event
了解在公司面临重大事件的情况下建立公司弹性资本的重要性

Activities for this week 
本周活动

CORE READING
核心读数

Manners-Bell, J. (2020) Supply Chain Risk Management: How to Design and Manage Resilient Supply Chains, 3^rd Edition, Kogan Page, pp.30-81
Manners-Bell， J. （2020） 供应链风险管理：如何设计和管理弹性供应链，^第 3 版，Kogan Page，第 30-81 页

Kovoor-Misra, S. (2020) Crisis Management: Resilience and Change, Los Angeles and London, Sage, Chapters 7, 8 and 9
科沃尔-米斯拉 （2020） Crisis 管理：弹性与变革，洛杉矶和伦敦，Sage，第 7、8 和 9 章

Coutu, D. (2002) ‘How Resilience Works’, Harvard Business Review, May.
Coutu， D. （2002） “弹性如何运作”，哈佛商业评论，5 月。

Hamel, G. and Valikangas, L. (2003) ‘The Quest for Resilience’, Harvard Business Review, September
哈梅尔，G. 和 Valikangas， L. （2003） “对弹性的追求”，哈佛商业评论，9 月

Pursiainen, C. (2017) The Crisis Management Cycle, Taylor Francis Group, pp.96-168
Pursiainen， C. （2017） 危机管理周期，泰勒弗朗西斯集团，第 96-168 页

Shih, W. (2020) ‘Global Supply Chains in a Post-Pandemic World’ Harvard Business Review, September-October
Shih， W. （20， 20） “后疫情时代的全球供应链”，《哈佛商业评论》，9-10 月

Week 11: Module Summary and Conclusion
第 11 周：模块总结和总结

Outline 
大纲

In the final week, we draw the various elements of the module together. We revisit the principle objectives of the module, which concern (a) the nature of risk and what this means in the supply chain context; (b) how differences in national systems generate different risk levels; and (c) how firms may approach the challenge of supply chain risk management, whether this includes understanding how the firm’s operating model needs to adapt to local differences, or thinking through the challenges of coordinating its activities across national borders (the need to create and sustain supply chain resilience for example).
在最后一周，我们将模块的各个元素放在一起。我们重新审视了该模块的主要目标，这些目标涉及 （a） 风险的性质及其在供应链环境中的含义; （b） 国家体系的差异如何产生不同的风险水平;以及 （c） 公司如何应对供应链风险管理的挑战，无论这包括了解公司的运营模式需要如何适应当地差异，还是思考跨境协调其活动的挑战（创建和维持供应链弹性的需求例如）。

Learning objectives 
学习目标

By the end of this week you will:
在本周末之前，您将： 

Have embedded your understanding of the different types of political-cultural-economic context that they might find themselves operating in.
已经嵌入了你对他们可能发现自己所处的不同类型的政治-文化-经济背景的理解。

Embedded your understanding of the strategic, contractual and operation risks associated with the different system types
深入了解与不同系统类型相关的战略、合同和运营风险

Embedded your understanding of how these risks can be mitigated
深入了解如何减轻这些风险

Have a clear understanding of the assessment requirements for this module
清楚地了解本模块的评估要求

Activities for this week 
本周活动