Buy Calls Are Slowly Vanishing From India’s Booming Stock Market
买入电话正在印度蓬勃发展的股市中慢慢消失

Analysts are having a hard time recommending stocks worth buying in India’s $5 trillion equity market.
分析师很难在印度 5 万亿美元的股票市场中推荐值得购买的股票。

The number of stocks on the NSE Nifty 200 index with a consensus ‘buy’ rating totaled 61 as of Tuesday, the lowest in at least a decade, data analyzed by Bloomberg show. LIC Housing Finance Ltd., Sun TV Network Ltd. and Dr. Lal PathLabs Ltd. are among stocks that saw multiple downgrades this quarter, putting their average analyst rating at ‘hold’.
彭博社分析的数据显示，截至周二，NSE Nifty 200 指数中一致“买入”评级的股票总数为 61 只，这是至少十年来的最低水平。LIC Housing Finance Ltd.、Sun TV Network Ltd. 和 Dr. Lal PathLabs Ltd. 等股票本季度多次下调评级，将其分析师的平均评级评为“持有”。

A dimmer outlook for corporate earnings in one of the world’s most expensive stock markets is making analysts skeptical of further gains in some of the shares that drove a years-long rally in Indian equities, now in its ninth year.
在世界上最昂贵的股票市场之一，企业盈利前景黯淡，使分析师对推动印度股市长达数年反弹的一些股票的进一步上涨持怀疑态度，这些股票现已进入第九个年头。

“Many stocks have now become obscenely expensive,” said Sahil Kapoor, a strategist at DSP Mutual Fund. Analysts are rolling forward their earnings estimates as sales growth is weak and margins are already at their peak, he said.
“许多股票现在已经变得贵得离谱，”DSP Mutual Fund 的策略师 Sahil Kapoor 说。他说，由于销售增长疲软，利润率已经达到顶峰，分析师正在上调他们的收益预测。

The Nifty 200 index is valued at about 24 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, versus last decade’s mean of about 19 times. Corporate profits, which partly drove the valuation multiples, are set to slow. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates earnings for the benchmark Nifty 50 firms to grow at 8.4% in the current fiscal year ending March 2025, against 20% last year.
Nifty 200 指数的估值约为 12 个月远期收益估计的 24 倍，而过去十年的平均估值约为 19 倍。在一定程度上推动估值倍数的企业利润将放缓。Kotak Institutional Equities 估计，在截至 2025 年 3 月的当前财年，基准 Nifty 50 公司的收益将增长 8.4%，而去年为 20%。

Indian stocks have been hitting successive records, with both domestic and overseas investors betting on the nation’s rapid economic expansion. A risk-on sentiment in global markets following the Federal Reserve’s jumbo rate cut last week sent Nifty to a fresh peak on Tuesday.
印度股市连续创下纪录，国内外投资者都押注该国经济的快速扩张。在美联储上周大幅降息后，全球市场的风险偏好情绪使 Nifty 周二达到新的峰值。

Read More: Stock Market Mania Takes Hold Deep in Hinterlands of India
阅读更多： 股市狂热在印度腹地深处扎根

While market watchers debate whether the recent returns can be sustained, an investment shift appears to be underway. Some investors are moving to larger stocks, where valuations seem reasonable, while others are rotating funds to sectors like financials, which have trailed the broader market rally.
当市场观察人士争论最近的回报是否能够持续时，投资转变似乎正在进行中。一些投资者正在转向估值似乎合理的大型股票，而另一些投资者则将资金转向金融等行业，这些行业已经落后于更广泛的市场反弹。

As analysts revise their calls, more than two-third of the Nifty 200 stocks now carry a ‘hold’ recommendation, compared to an almost equal split between buy and hold a decade ago. The shift reflects a more cautious stance, even as India remains a bright spot globally despite concerns around expensive valuations. Notably, only five of the 196 stocks under review have a sell rating, little changed from 2015.
随着分析师修改他们的看涨期权，超过三分之二的 Nifty 200 股票现在提出了“持有”的建议，而十年前买入和持有的比例几乎相等。这一转变反映了更加谨慎的立场，尽管印度仍是全球的亮点，尽管人们担心估值昂贵。值得注意的是，在接受审查的 196 只股票中，只有 5 只股票的评级为卖出，与 2015 年相比变化不大。

“India being a growth market, analysts would try to have a buy or hold rating rather than a sell,” said Kapoor.
“印度是一个增长市场，分析师会尝试给予买入或持有评级，而不是卖出，”Kapoor 说。

Methodology: The study rates each analyst’s rating on a scale of five (buy) to one (sell) to find the average consensus rating. If the value is equal to or above four, the stock is counted a consensus buy, while an average rating of two or below considers it a consensus sell. Those falling in the middle are taken as a hold.
方法：该研究以 5（买入）到 1（卖出）的等级对每位分析师的评级进行评分，以找到平均共识评级。如果该值等于或大于 4，则该股票被视为共识买入，而平均评分为 2 或以下则被视为共识卖出。那些落在中间的被当作保留。