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Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
亚太地区每周启动

Continued rally in Hong Kong/China markets (+4-6%) supported further gains for the MXAPJ index (+2%) amid flattish performance in other regional markets
在其他地区市场表现平平的情况下,香港/中国市场的持续反弹(+4-6%)支撑了 MXAPJ 指数的进一步上涨(+2%)。

Research | Portfolio Strategy | By Timothy Moe, CFA and others
研究 | 投资组合策略 | 作者:Timothy Moe,CFA 等

 Click on the FOLLOW button below to subscribe to the Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart publication.
点击下面的 "FOLLOW"(关注)按钮,订阅《亚太地区起步》周刊。

MXAPJ gained 2.1%, led by Hong Kong (+6%), China (+4%), and Taiwan (+1%), while Singapore and Philippines (flat) underperformed. Autos and Insurance outperformed Software, Capital Goods and Energy sectors. Asian FX modestly appreciated against USD. The region saw US$1.8bn foreign buying, led by Taiwan (+US$1.1bn). The FOMC announced it will start slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff in June, and noted a lack of further progress toward the 2% inflation targets, while Chair Powell strongly pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes. In China, both industrial profits and revenue fell notably in March, while April manufacturing PMIs were better than expected. The PBOC's Q1 surveys suggest improved loan demand and consumption propensity but deteriorated house price expectations. Policymakers appeared less concerned about near-term growth but maintained their supportive policy stance in the Politburo meeting. HK GDP rebounded notably in Q1 while retail sales fell in March. Korea had a broad-based rebound in exports in April, while IP sharply pulled back and inflation edged down. Key data/events next week: Indonesia GDP (Mon); Philippines, Thailand & Taiwan CPI, RBA meeting (Tue); Taiwan trade (Wed); China trade & money supply, Philippines GDP, BNM meeting (Thu)
在香港(+6%)、中国(+4%)和台湾(+1%)的带动下,MXAPJ 指数上涨 2.1%,而新加坡和菲律宾(持平)表现不佳。汽车和保险板块的表现优于软件、资本货物和能源板块。亚洲外汇对美元小幅升值。在台湾(+11 亿美元)的带动下,该地区出现了 18 亿美元的外国买盘。FOMC宣布将于6月开始放缓资产负债表的缩减步伐,并指出在实现2%的通胀目标方面缺乏进一步进展,同时主席鲍威尔强烈反对加息的可能性。在中国,3 月份工业利润和收入均显著下降,而 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数好于预期。中国人民银行第一季度调查显示,贷款需求和消费倾向有所改善,但房价预期有所恶化。在政治局会议上,政策制定者似乎对近期经济增长的担忧有所减少,但维持了支持性的政策立场。香港第一季度本地生产总值显著反弹,但 3 月份零售销售额下降。韩国 4 月份出口广泛反弹,而知识产权大幅回落,通胀率略有下降。下周主要数据/事件印尼 GDP(周一);菲律宾、泰国和台湾 CPI,澳大利亚央行会议(周二);台湾贸易(周三);中国贸易和货币供应,菲律宾 GDP,印度国家银行会议(周四)

Charts of the Week
本周图表

  • Performance Review: Asian equities have rebounded from their ytd lows, with China ralling 22% from its January low. The outperformance between MSCI Asia ex-China/HK and China/HK markets since 2023 has recently narrowed to 36pp from 48pp in early March. Overall, MXAPJ gained 3% ytd, led by India, Taiwan, and China Offshore, while Hong Kong, Thailand, and Indonesia underperformed. Among sectors, Media & Ent, Utilities, and Energy gained the most. Looking forward, seasonality suggests weakened performance from May to Sep with a better July in between.
    业绩回顾:亚洲股市已从年内低点反弹,中国股市从 1 月份的低点反弹了 22%。自 2023 年以来,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)亚洲(中国/香港除外)市场与中国/香港市场的跑赢大市幅度从 3 月初的 48 个百分点收窄至 36 个百分点。总体而言,在印度、台湾和中国离岸的带动下,MXAPJ指数年内上涨3%,而香港、泰国和印尼表现不佳。在各行业中,媒体与实体、公用事业和能源行业涨幅最大。展望未来,季节性因素表明 5 月至 9 月表现疲软,7 月表现较好。

  • ERLI and AMBI update: Our ERLI model projects milder earnings downgrades to continue amid resilient growth data, while our Asia Bear Market Indicator stayed around 50% amid mixed data between the US ISM PMI and regional growth along with marginally higher CDS spreads.
    ERLI 和 AMBI 更新:我们的 ERLI 模型预测,在经济增长数据具有韧性的情况下,将继续出现较温和的盈利下调,而在美国 ISM PMI 和地区经济增长数据好坏参半,以及 CDS 息差小幅上升的情况下,我们的亚洲熊市指标保持在 50%左右。

  • CY1Q24 Result Summary: Regional Q1 earnings are broadly positive so far, with 49% beats vs. 30% misses and a median surprise of +5%, while China A results concluded below expectations.
    24 财年第一季度业绩摘要:到目前为止,各地区的第一季度财报普遍向好,49%的财报好于 30%的财报差,惊喜中位数为 +5%,而中国 A 股的财报低于预期。

Charts of the Week: Performance Review & May Seasonality
本周图表业绩回顾与五月季节性

Exhibit 1 证据 1: Asian equities have rebounded from their ytd lows, with China ralling 22% from its January low
亚洲股市从年内低点反弹,中国股市从 1 月份的低点上涨了 22

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 2 证据 2: The outperformance between MSCI Asia ex-China/HK and China/HK since 2023 has recently narrowed to 36pp from 48pp in early March
自 2023 年以来,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)亚洲(中国/香港除外)与中国/香港之间的超额收益率从 3 月初的 48 个百分点收窄至 36 个百分点。

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 3 证据 3: MXAPJ gained 3% ytd, led by India, Taiwan, and China Offshore, while Hong Kong, Thailand, and Indonesia underperformed
在印度、台湾和中国离岸公司的带动下,MXAPJ 年度涨幅达 3%,而香港、泰国和印尼表现不佳

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 4 证据 4: Among sectors, Media & Ent, Utilities, and Energy gained the most
在各行业中,媒体与实体、公用事业和能源行业涨幅最大

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 5 证据 5: Dividend and Value outperformed in 2024ytd
2024 年股息型和价值型表现优异ytd

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 6 证据 6: Seasonal patterns suggest weakened performance from May to Sep with a better July in between
季节性模式表明,5 月至 9 月的业绩有所减弱,7 月的业绩较好

Source: FactSet, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet资料来源:FactSet,数据由高盛全球投资研究部编制

Charts of the Week: Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI)
本周图表:盈利修正领先指标 (ERLI)

Exhibit 7: Our ERLI model projects milder earnings downgrades to continue amid resilient growth data
图表 7:我们的 ERLI 模型预测,在增长数据保持弹性的情况下,盈利下调幅度将继续放缓

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

For details, please see May '24 pulse check: ERLI forecasts continuing, but milder, earnings downgrades with intraregional divergence, May 3
详情请参阅 5 月 24 日的脉搏检查:ERLI 预测盈利下调仍将持续,但幅度较小,区域内存在分歧,5 月 3 日

Charts of the week: Asia Bear Market Indicator (ABMI)
本周图表亚洲熊市指标 (ABMI)

Exhibit 8: Our Asia Bear Market Indicator stayed around 50% amid mixed data between the US ISM PMI and regional growth, along with marginarlly higher CDS spreads
图表 8:在美国 ISM PMI 和地区经济增长数据好坏参半,以及 CDS 息差小幅走高的情况下,我们的亚洲熊市指标维持在 50%左右。

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究

For methodology, please see Global Strategy Paper: The bear facts: Constructing an Asia bear market risk indicator, Mar 20, 2019
有关方法,请参阅《全球战略文件》:熊市事实:构建亚洲熊市风险指标,2019年3月20日

Charts of the Week: CY1Q24 Earnings Summary
本周图表24 财年第一季度盈利汇总

Exhibit 9: Early Result Summary: 795 companies (48% of MXAPJ cap) have reported – CY1Q24 earnings are +12%/+39% yoy/qoq; Actual CY3M24 earnings are tracking at 24% of full-year estimates, in-line with historical seasonality
图表 9:早期业绩摘要:795 家公司(占 MXAPJ 总市值的 48%)已发布财报 - 24 财年第一季度盈利同比/环比分别增长 12%/+39%; 24 财年第三季度实际盈利为全年预期的 24%,符合历史季节性规律

Summary of CY1Q24 earnings results: Net profit growth (yoy and sequential) and CY1Q24 actual as % of full-year estimates
24 财年第一季度财报摘要:净利润增长(同比和环比)和 24 财年第一季度实际业绩占全年预期的百分比

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源彭博社、FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 10: 1Q24 earnings surprises (vs. consensus) are positive in general, with 49% beats vs. 30% misses and a median surprise of +5%
图表 10:24 年第一季度的盈利意外(与共识相比)总体上是积极的,49%的盈利超出预期, 30%的盈利低于预期,意外中位数为 +5

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博社、摩根士丹利资本国际公司、高盛全球投资研究部

Exhibit 11: Korea and Taiwan had the most companies beating consensus 1Q expectations, while India and China had the least. Within sectors, Industrial and Financials saw the most beats, while Materials had the least
图表 11:韩国和台湾地区第一季度业绩超出一致预期的公司最多,而印度和中国最少。在各行业中,工业和金融业超出预期的公司最多,而材料业最少。

% of companies with earnings surprises in CY1Q24, ranked by % of beats
24 财年第一季度有盈利惊喜的公司百分比,按业绩超预期百分比排列

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博社、摩根士丹利资本国际公司、高盛全球投资研究部

Asia Regional Market/Sector Summary & Scorecard
亚洲地区市场/行业概要和记分卡

Asia Regional Market/Sector Summary & Scorecard
亚洲地区市场/行业概要和记分卡

GS Strategy View, Returns, Valuations, Growth, Earnings Revisions and Foreign Flows
GS 战略观点、回报、估值、增长、盈利修正和外资流入

Source: MSCI, FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:MSCI、FactSet、I/B/E/S、高盛全球投资研究来源:MSCI、FactSet、I/B/E/S、高盛全球投资研究部

Our Views, Allocations and Trade Ideas
我们的观点、分配和交易理念

MXAPJ index vs. EPS path, market allocations and index targets
MXAPJ 指数与 EPS 路径、市场分配和指数目标的对比

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Our MXAPJ sector stance and current trade recommendations
我们的 MXAPJ 行业立场和当前交易建议

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、高盛全球投资研究部

Prices, returns and valuations in this report are updated as of Friday 4:00pm HKT; other data as of Thursday's close.
本报告中的价格、回报和估值更新至香港时间周五下午 4:00;其他数据更新至周四收盘。

Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts
高盛全球宏观预测

Cross-asset forecasts 跨资产预测

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

EPS growth and economic forecasts
EPS 增长和经济预测

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、Haver、高盛全球投资研究。

Upcoming Catalysts and Events
即将举行的催化剂和活动

Political Event and Economics Calendar (Asia and Global)
政治事件和经济日历(亚洲和全球)

Source: Respective Central Banks & Government Offices, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源各国中央银行和政府办公室,数据由高盛全球投资研究部汇编

Performance Snapshot: Regions, markets, commodities, FX and rates
业绩快照:地区、市场、商品、外汇和利率

Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices
MSCI 市场指数和地区指数的价格表现

Week-to-date as of Friday 4:00pm HKT
截至香港时间周五下午 4:00 的一周日期

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博、FactSet、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Performance Snapshot: Regional sectors, slices, themes factors
业绩快照:地区部门、片区、主题因素

Performance of APxJ regional sectors, slices, themes factors
亚太和日本地区各行业、各片区、各主题因素的表现

Wtd and ytd returns of APJ/AEJ sectors, slices, thematics and styles, as of Friday, 4:00pm HKT
截至香港时间周五下午 4:00,亚太/东亚和日本板块、分类、主题和风格的周回报率和年回报率

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、高盛全球投资研究部

For basket details and more analysis, please visit GS Marquee and see our latest update of Asia Strategy Baskets.
欲了解篮子详情和更多分析,请访问 GS Marquee 并查看我们最新更新的亚洲战略篮子。

Relative Performance of Asia Macro Slices
亚洲宏观切片的相对表现

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、彭博、高盛全球投资研究部

Relative Performance of Asia Pacific Sectors
亚太地区各行业的相对表现

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、彭博、高盛全球投资研究部

Style Monitor: Long/Short Performance of Asia Styles
风格监控:亚洲风格的多空表现

Backtesting performance based on baskets of stocks (quarterly balanced & equal-weighted) selected from the top/bottom-quartile of the MXAPJ constituents ranked by the respective factor metrics
根据从 MXAPJ 成分股的上/下四分位数中挑选的一篮子股票(季度均衡加权和等权加权),按照各自的因子指标进行回溯测试的表现

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、彭博、高盛全球投资研究部

See Asia-Pacific Strategy - Growth vs. Value debate: Prefer Growth with overlays, March 21, 2016 for details on methodology.
参见《亚太战略--增长与价值之争》:有关方法的详情,请参阅《亚太战略--增长与价值之争:偏好增长与叠加》,2016 年 3 月 21 日。

Leaders & Laggards 领先者与落后者

Relative price performance (US$) of MSCI markets vs. MXAPJ index, and macro slices and sectors vs. MXASJ index
MSCI 市场与 MXAPJ 指数的相对价格表现(美元),以及宏观切片和行业与 MXASJ 指数的相对价格表现

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Earnings Revisions and Sentiment
盈利修正与情绪

Consensus EPS levels (in USD FX) of MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan index
MSCI AC 亚太地区(日本除外)指数的每股收益共识水平(美元汇率

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Consensus EPS growth forecasts (in local FX) for MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan index
MSCI AC 亚太地区(日本除外)指数每股盈利增长预测共识(按当地外汇计算

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

MXAPJ index price vs. forward earnings sentiment
MXAPJ 指数价格与远期盈利预测对比

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Our ERLI model projects milder earnings downgrades to continue amid resilient growth data
我们的 ERLI 模型预测,在经济增长数据保持韧性的情况下,盈利下调将继续保持温和态势

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

Consensus earnings revisions by market and sector (cumulative since 2023)
按市场和行业划分的一致盈利修正(自 2023 年以来的累计值)

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、高盛全球投资研究部

2024E consensus earnings revision (1 week / 3 months) by market, ranked by past 1-week revision

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2024E consensus earnings revision (1 week / 3 months) by sector, ranked by past 1-week revision

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuations in Context 估值背景

MXAPJ aggregate vs. average forward P/E
MXAPJ 总市盈率与平均远期市盈率对比

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Relative forward P/E of MXAPJ vs. US and Europe
与美国和欧洲相比,MXAPJ 的相对远期市盈率

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

MXAPJ trailing P/B vs. forward ROE
MXAPJ 跟踪市盈率与远期投资回报率对比

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Equity/bond yield gap between MXAPJ earnings and UST10Y yields
MXAPJ 盈利与 UST10Y 收益率之间的股票/债券收益率差距

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Asian equities forward P/E valuations (current vs. 10-year ranges)
亚洲股票远期市盈率估值(当前与 10 年区间对比)

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Asian equities forward P/E valuations (current vs. 10-year ranges)
亚洲股票远期市盈率估值(当前与 10 年区间对比)

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Equity valuations (and their 10-year z-scores) for MXAPJ markets
亚太主要市场的股票估值(及其 10 年 Z 值

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Equity valuations (and their 10-year z-scores) for MXAPJ sectors
MXAPJ 行业的股票估值(及其 10 年 Z 值

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

MSCI market and local index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median estimates)
MSCI 市场和本地指数估值(基于自下而上的共识中值估算)

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

MXAPJ sector and macro slice valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median estimates)
MXAPJ 行业和宏观切片估值(基于自下而上的共识中值估算)

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究资料来源:FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Fund Flows and Liquidity
资金流量和流动性

The region (EM Asia ex-Japan) saw foreign buying of US$1.8bn wow, led by Taiwan (+US$1.1bn). Korea (+US$0.4bn) , A-share (+US$0.3bn) and India (+US$0.2bn) saw moderate inflows, while ASEAN (-US$0.3bn) saw FII selling wow
在台湾(+11 亿美元)的带动下,该地区(日本以外的亚洲新兴市场)出现了 18 亿美元的外资买盘。韩国(+4 亿美元)、A 股(+3 亿美元)和印度(+2 亿美元)有适度资金流入,而东盟(-3 亿美元)则有外国直接投资抛售。

Source: Bloomberg, Respective Local Stock Exchanges
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、各地方证券交易所

Since the Jan 2021 peak, EM Asia ex-China has seen US$114bn FII selling and has recovered US$55bn (~48%), suggesting further rooms for inflows
自 2021 年 1 月达到峰值以来,除中国外的亚洲新兴市场出现了 1 140 亿美元的外国投资机构卖盘,目前已回升 550 亿美元(约 48%),表明资金仍有流入空间

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Respective Local Stock Exchanges
资料来源来源:彭博、FactSet、MSCI、各地方证券交易所

Taiwan and Korea saw retail selling of US$0.7-1.3bn each. Ytd, Asian markets have seen US$7.6bn retail outflows
台湾和韩国分别出现了 7 亿至 13 亿美元的散户卖盘。今年以来,亚洲市场已出现 76 亿美元的散户资金外流。

Source: Bloomberg, AMFI, TEJ, FactSet, MSCI
资料来源来源:彭博、AMFI、TEJ、FactSet、MSCI

Retail sentiment is above historical average for China, Korea, India, and ASEAN
中国、韩国、印度和东盟的零售情绪高于历史平均水平

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究

Cumulative Northbound & Southbound connect net buying since 2018
2018年以来累计北向和南向连接净买入量

Source: HKEX, Wind 资料来源资料来源:香港交易所,Wind

Cash turnover on Asian exchanges
亚洲交易所的现金交易额

Source: Bloomberg, Respective exchanges, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博社、各交易所、高盛全球投资研究部

In DM, US saw muted inflows of US$0.1bn, Japan saw passive-driven inflows of US$3.1bn, while Europe saw US$0.3bn inflows
在德国马克方面,美国的资金流入量为 1 亿美元,日本的资金流入量为 31 亿美元,欧洲的资金流入量为 3 亿美元。

Source: EPFR 资料来源资料来源:EPFR

In March, AEJ funds increased their allocation in ASEAN and North Asia (Korea & Taiwan), while reducing allocations in India, Hong Kong, and China
3 月份,AEJ 基金增加了在东盟和北亚(韩国和台湾)的配置,同时减少了在印度、香港和中国的配置

Bp over/underweight vs. benchmark (based on EPFR)
与基准相比高/低权重基点(基于 EPFR)

Source: EPFR, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:EPFR、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Equity Risk, Volatility and Correlation
股票风险、波动性和相关性

GS Asia Pacific ex-Japan Equity Risk Barometer
GS 亚太地区(日本除外)股票风险晴雨表

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:彭博、FactSet、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Our ERBs indicate that risk appetite is above average levels for most Asian markets
我们的 ERB 表明,大多数亚洲市场的风险偏好高于平均水平

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究

Our Asia Bear Market Indicator stayed around 50% amid mixed growth data between the US ISM PMI and regional growth data along with marginarlly higher CDS spread
我们的亚洲熊市指标维持在 50%左右,因为美国 ISM PMI 和地区增长数据喜忧参半,而且 CDS 息差略有上升

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究

Equities vs. credit performance
股票与信贷业绩对比

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、高盛全球投资研究部

Implied volatility & Normalized skew for KOSPI 200, HSCEI & NIFTY
KOSPI 200、HSCEI 和 NIFTY 的隐含波动率和归一化偏斜率

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:彭博社、高盛全球投资研究部

Average stock correlation with headline index
股票与主要指数的平均相关性

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、MSCI、高盛全球投资研究部

Policy Risk Indicators 政策风险指标

China Regulation Barometer (GSSRCNRG)
中国监管晴雨表(GSSRCNRG)

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:MSCI、FactSet、Wind、高盛全球投资研究公司

Exhibit 12 证据 12: US-China Relations Barometer (GSSRUSCN)
美中关系晴雨表 (GSSRUSCN)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:高盛全球投资研究

China POE Regulation Proxy
中国 POE 法规代理

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Factiva, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源来源:MSCI、FactSet、Factiva、高盛全球投资研究部

Cross-Strait Risk Index (GSSRCSRI) and Barometer (GSSZCSRB)
海峡两岸风险指数(GSSRCSRI)和晴雨表(GSSZCSRB)

Source: Factiva, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:Factiva、高盛全球投资研究部

Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index
地缘政治风险 (GPR) 指数

Source: MatteoIacoviello.com/gpr.htm
来源:MatteoIacoviello.com/gpr.htmMatteoIacoviello.com/gpr.htm

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
经济政策不确定性指数

Source: PolicyUncertainty.com
来源:PolicyUncertainty.com来源:PolicyUncertainty.com

For details, please visit our GS proprietary index pages (GSSRCNRG / GSSRUSCN / GSSRCSRI / GSSRCSRB)
详情请访问我们的 GS 专有索引页面(GSSRCNRG / GSSRUSCN / GSSRCSRI / GSSRCSRB)。

Tracking Regional Macroeconomic Indicators
跟踪地区宏观经济指标

GS Current Activity Indicator, Global and AEJ

(mom annualized)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Regional Trade, AEJ Exports and Imports Growth (in $Value)

(yoy, market FX weighted)

Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

AEJ Goldman Sachs MAP Score (Economic Data Surprise Index)

Source: Bloomberg, Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Regional Inflation, AEJ CPI and PPI

(3m qoq annualized, MSCI cap-weighted)

Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Interest Rates, US vs. AEJ Gov't Bond Yields (10Y & 3M)

(MSCI cap-weighted for AEJ)

Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (ex-Equity), AEJ

Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Macro Data Summary 宏观数据摘要

Source: FactSet, Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源资料来源:FactSet、Haver、高盛全球投资研究部

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
投资者在做出投资决策时,应将本报告视为唯一的考虑因素。有关 Reg AC 认证和其他重要披露信息,请参阅披露附录,或访问 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。

Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC

We, Timothy Moe, CFA, Sunil Koul, Alvin So, CFA, Kinger Lau, CFA, John Kwon, Amorita Goel, CFA and Mark Hung, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships.

Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.

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