Equity Research
US Conviction List - Directors' Cut
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APAC Conviction List - Directors' Cut
NEW ADDITIONS: Axis Bank, Horizon Robotics and NextDC
TARIFFS & RECESSION RISK IN FOCUS
GOAL Positioning: Risk appetite reversal despite macro risks
After declining sharply our aggregate sentiment and positioning indicator recovered to the 38th percentile, still below the global PMI, which has stabilised around 52. Investors turned sharply bearish following the tariff announcements but sentiment has recovered since the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. Our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) currently stands at -0.3, recovering from the sharp correction on April 7th, when it reached -1.64 (and -2 intraday).
30 Apr 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
Global Markets Daily: The Risks (Or Not) to Foreign Demand for US Credit
The risk of foreign selling of US dollar denominated assets has been front and center for the last month amid the weakening in the US dollar. While foreign entities still hold nearly 30% of US credit and are an important source of demand, the corporate bond market has not suffered from the same level of worry as the US treasury market over the last month.
30 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Spencer Rogers, CFA and others
Also see:
US Daily: April GSAI: Not Quite a Spring
1 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Jessica Rindels
Global Markets Daily: Could We Have Seen the Worst in Markets Already?
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Vickie Chang
Commodity Views: Hedge Cyclical Recession Risk; Structurally Bullish Gold and Copper
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others
Asia Economics Analyst: Repatriation Flows - Who Are The Potential Beneficiaries in Asia?
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Danny Suwanapruti and others
GOAL Kickstart: Market repricing of US recession and exceptionalism risks
28 Apr 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Andrea Ferrario and others
Asia Views: Bracing for the tariff impact
29 Apr 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others
We continue to see equities as in a bear market, driven by low economic growth and high uncertainty (as well as elevated valuations in the US). We expect a low Sharpe ratio for equity returns and are UW equities over a three-month horizon in our asset allocation. We recommend focusing on Domestic Defensive slices. The typical Domestic Defensive sectors include Utilities, Telcos, and Personal Care/Grocery Stores.
28 Apr 2025 | 12:00pm| 13pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Guillaume Jaisson and others
We last updated our discretionary cash flow model on April 1, prior to President Trump's "reciprocal" tariff announcements on April 2. Since then, Goldman Sachs economists have lowered GDP growth forecasts and raised 12-month recession probability to 45% on a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending.
1 May 2025 | 12:06pm| 21pg| Research | Equity-Kate McShane, CFA and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Historically, blackouts have unlocked a highly supportive regulatory cycle. Despite the negative narrative in the press, we believe that the recent Spanish blackout has highlighted several shortcomings in the domestic energy policy that are now likely to be addressed. Namely, to avoid more of these instances, we believe that Spanish policy-makers will have to: support an investment upgrade in power grids, boost their battery storage strategy, temporarily slow down the development of solar, and extend the asset-life of nuclear reactors. We see Iberdrola and Enel as the best ways to leverage this theme in the long term.
Alberto Gandolfi
Utilities - Europe | Milan
1 May 2025 | 12:32pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
Within its Q1’25 earnings report, Meta Platforms (META) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg articulated his vision for the five key tenets of how the intersections of AI and spatial computing platforms will converge toward META’s long-term ambitions to expand the market opportunity at the intersection of media, commerce and marketing, drive forward iteration of computing form factors and increase the customization and personalization of overall consumer computing experiences.
1 May 2025 | Research | Equity - Eric Sheridan and others
We reiterate our Buy rating while raising our PT to $480 (vs. $450 prior) following F3Q25 outperformance across all key metrics (see: First Take). We leave increasingly confident in Microsoft’s ability to capture AI share while executing across their core businesses.
1 May 2025 | Research | Equity - Kash Rangan and others
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): Strong bookings, tariff headwind guidance in-line with recent data points
1 May 2025 | 6:33am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA): Delivering on production growth, but financial gearing is rising in a challenging macro environment
1 May 2025 | 12:09pm| 23pg| Research | Equity-Michele Della Vigna, CFA and others
GSK Plc (GSK.L): 1Q25 review: Earnings beat but fundamentals unchanged as limited pipeline optionality keeps us on the sidelines
1 May 2025 | 1:02pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Rajan Sharma and others
London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L): 1Q25 Review: In-line revenues, D&A acceleration, FY25 guidance reiterated
1 May 2025 | 2:02pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Oliver Carruthers, CFA and others
Vonovia (VNAn.DE): 1Q25 preview: rental/non rental outlook key drivers; leverage to decrease
1 May 2025 | 2:08am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Jonathan Kownator and others
- Company HighlightsInditex (ITX.MC): Updating for recent Euro strength drives c.3% FY26E earnings reduction to €1.96; TP to €52, remain Buy rated1 May 2025 | 1:45am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Richard Edwards and othersSanofi (SASY.PA): Competitor data in COPD has limited impact, in our view1 May 2025 | 3:01pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Quigley and othersRepsol (REP.MC): 1Q25: Strong capital discipline and accelerating disposals; Buy1 May 2025 | 4:05am| 22pg| Research | Equity-Michele Della Vigna, CFA and othersGlencore Plc (GLEN.L): MarQ: Weak start for copper, recapitalizing for 2H pickup1 May 2025 | 7:07am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Matt GreeneAdyen NV (ADYEN.AS): 1Q25 net revenue modestly below, driven by eBay ramp-down; FY25 and mid-term guidance reiterated30 Apr 2025 | 2:45pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Mohammed Moawalla and othersNordex SE (NDXG.DE): Q1 2025 results point to a bigger FY net cash position1 May 2025 | 12:13am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Ajay Patel and others
- Industry HighlightsGS SUSTAIN Tracker: Sustainable equity sees outflows in 1Q25; links with performance history1 May 2025 | 8:08am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Brendan Corbett and othersMachinery & Infrastructure: Top 5 tariff takeaways halfway through earnings1 May 2025 | 7:39am| 5pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and othersAustralia: Confession Candidates30 Apr 2025 | 7:59pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Matthew Ross and othersBusiness Services: Distributors: IMCD/AZE 1Q'25: Results highlight divergence in growth and uncertainty around recovery in 202530 Apr 2025 | 6:57pm| 20pg| Research | Equity-Suhasini Varanasi and othersAmericas Entertainment: Sports Media Preview: Key themes and expectations heading into 1Q25 results for TKO & FWONK1 May 2025 | 4:06am| 18pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and othersChina Industrial Tech: 1Q25 Robot/Automation Landscape Analyzer: How are market shares shifting?30 Apr 2025 | 5:21pm| 17pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline Du and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Thematic Views: Gauging the recent foreign investor selling of US equities25 Apr 2025 | 6:55am| 8pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Daniel Chavez and othersChina Musings: Catching the accelerating Southbound train27 Apr 2025 | 8:11pm| 12pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Si Fu, Ph.D. and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Trading corporate uses of cash in a slowing economic growth environment26 Apr 2025 | 4:25am| 33pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSWeekly Options Watch: Call buying in stocks with short-squeeze potential30 Apr 2025 | 5:01pm| 13pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersMacro Catalyst Reactions (29-Apr-2025)29 Apr 2025 | 6:51pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (28-Apr-25)28 Apr 2025 | 9:11pm| 16pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
APAC Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May Update: Adding Axis Bank, Horizon Robotics & NextDC; removing HDFC Bank, JD.com, Murata & AAC
1 May 2025 | 4:58pm| 29pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
±CL
US Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May 2025 Update
1 May 2025 | 4:58pm| 26pg| Research | Equity-Steven Kron and others
±CL
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX): Near-term challenges point to a longer path to meaningful acceleration; downgrading SBUX to Neutral from Buy
30 Apr 2025 | 1:39pm| 26pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and others
Sandfire Resources (SFR.AX): 3Q FY25 result: metal production impacted by rain, big 4Q required to hit guidance; down to Neutral on valuation
30 Apr 2025 | 7:29am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and others
Latest research
Research Unplugged: US Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May Spotlight
1 May 2025 | 5:04pm| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
APAC Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May Update: Adding Axis Bank, Horizon Robotics & NextDC; removing HDFC Bank, JD.com, Murata & AAC
1 May 2025 | 4:58pm| 29pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
±CL
US Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May 2025 Update
1 May 2025 | 4:58pm| 26pg| Research | Equity-Steven Kron and others
±CL
Ferrari Group (FERGR.AS): Double-digit compounding properties, even without re-rating, reiterate Buy
1 May 2025 | 4:39pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Patrick Creuset and others
Europe Beverages: Insights from NABCA: US spirits demand remains weak, Diageo lost share
1 May 2025 | 4:39pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Olivier Nicolaï and others
LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. (601012.SS): 4Q24/1Q25 EBITDA better than expected, inflection insight with constructive BC guidance; Buy
1 May 2025 | 4:21pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Mengwen Wang and others
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Strong execution and consistent demand signals despite broader macro uncertainty - F3Q25 Results
1 May 2025 | 4:17pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Kash Rangan and others
Europe Morning Call: May 01, 2025
1 May 2025 | 4:08pm| Research | Equity-Trinity Ford
Intertek Group (ITRK.L): 1Q'25 preview: Focus on growth vs. peers and commentary on consumer products
1 May 2025 | 4:03pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Suhasini Varanasi and others
GS UK Today: Encore: BP | Trading Update: LSEG | Lloyds | Informa | GSK | Glencore | Lancashire Holdings | Beazley
1 May 2025 | 3:45pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Trinity Ford and others
EPS changes (10% or more, last 24 hrs)
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* Contains active ratings and coverage designation. Source: Goldman Sachs Research
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Research Unplugged: US Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May Spotlight1 May 2025 | 5:04pm| Equity Research
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Encore: Buy AZN (on CL), NDXG, BVI, ITX; Sell GN | Utilities | GOAL Positioning | China Industrial Tech
1 May 2025 | 1:42pm| 17pg| Research | Equity-Trinity Ford and others
End of Month Market Intelligence: past the peak?
1 May 2025 | 1:16am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
30 Apr 2025 | 8:31pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
2 May 2025 | 8am NY | 1pm LN | 8pm HK
Following TMUS results, which came in slightly below expectations, investors have been concerned around a slowdown in the US mobile growth outlook....Read more
James Schneider, Head of US Telecoms and IT Services Research
Andrew Lee, Head of European TMT Research
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
2 May 2025 | 12:30pm NY | 5:30pm LN | 12:30am HK(+1)
Please contact your sales representative if you wish to participate. Dial-in details will be circulated to confirmed investors closer to event...Read more
Gary Bisbee, Head of Investor Relations
George Tong, CFA, Information and Business Services Analyst, Global Investment Research
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
2 May 2025 | 12:30pm NY | 5:30pm LN | 12:30am HK(+1)
Please contact your sales representative if you wish to participate. Dial-in details will be circulated to confirmed investors closer to event...Read more
Steve Weber, EVP & CFO
Dave Singleton, VP Investor Relations
George Tong, CFA, Information and Business Services Analyst, Global Investment Research
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
5 May 2025 | 4pm NY | 9pm LN | 4am HK(+1)
Please contact your sales representative if you wish to participate. Dial-in details will be circulated to confirmed investors closer to event...Read more
Kevin Hochman, CEO
Mika Ware, CFO
Kim Sanders, Head of IR
Christine Cho, Americas Restaurants Analyst, Global Investment Research
UPCOMING FEATURED CONFERENCES
European Consumer Staples and Retail Conference
13-14 May 2025 | London
Register
Global Staples Forum
13 May 2025 | New York
Register | Agenda
Electrify Europe: Utilities and Clean Energy Conference
19-20 May 2025 | London
Register | Agenda
TechNet China
21-22 May 2025 | The Portman Ritz-Carlton, Shanghai
Register | Agenda
PAST CONFERENCES REPLAYS / TAKEAWAYS
