The future of the Chinese consumer—in three glasses
中国消费者的未来——三杯

TO WESTERN PALATES baijiu is an acquired taste—and most never acquire it. China’s national fire water, at first whiff redolent of cheap potato vodka with a soupçon of fish sauce, is just too pungently unfamiliar. But whatever foreign investors plied with the stuff by their Chinese business partners make of the flavour profile, they appear to be lapping up shares in its makers.
TO WESTERNPALATES 白酒是一种后天习得的口味——大多数人从未获得过。中国的国火水，乍一闻闻到廉价的土豆伏特加和鱼露汤的味道，实在是太刺鼻了，让人不熟悉。但是，无论外国投资者从他们的中国商业伙伴那里购买这些产品如何看待这种风味，他们似乎都在哄骗其制造商的股票。

Since China’s government announced a cocktail of policies to stimulate domestic consumption in late September, baijiu stocks have gone on a bender. Over the course of a week the biggest, Kweichow Moutai, gained nearly $90bn in market value—equivalent to a whole Diageo, the West’s top distiller, washed down with a Kirin. It is worth a cool $313bn, more than Coca-Cola. Throw in its six main rivals, also up by 40% or so, and the market capitalisation of big baijiu exceeds half a trillion dollars.
自从中国政府在 9 月下旬宣布一系列刺激国内消费的政策以来，白酒股票一直在下跌。在一周的时间里，最大的贵州茅台酒庄的市值上涨了近 900 亿美元，相当于一整家西方顶级酿酒商帝亚吉欧 （Diageo） 被麒麟 （Kirin） 冲垮。它的价值高达 3130 亿美元，比可口可乐还多。再加上它的六个主要竞争对手，也上涨了 40% 左右，大白酒的市值超过了五万亿美元。

It is not just the distillers who are benefiting from the week-long rally. The share prices of large Chinese brewers look just as frothy. That of Nongfu Spring, China’s biggest water-bottler, has increased by a third. This compares with a rise of 25% for the CSI 300 index of mainland blue chips as a whole. In China, the way to an investor’s heart suddenly appears to be through the throat. Will it all end in a nasty hangover?
从为期一周的反弹中受益的不仅仅是酿酒商。中国大型啤酒厂的股价看起来同样泡沫化。中国最大的水瓶商农夫山泉的产量增长了三分之一。相比之下，内地蓝筹股的沪深 300 指数整体上涨了 25%。在中国，打动投资者心的路突然似乎是通过喉咙。这一切都会以令人讨厌的宿醉告终吗？

Not necessarily. There is a lot to admire about the Chinese beverage industry—most of all, its eye-watering profitability. Consider China’s most valuable producer of baijiu, water and beer, respectively. Last year 92% of Kweichow Moutai’s nearly 150bn yuan ($21bn) in sales was pure gross profit. For Diageo the figure was 60%. In terms of operating margin, Nongfu (at 33%) bests digital titans like Alphabet, Google’s parent company (31%), and Tencent, China’s most valuable firm (30%), let alone rival water-pedlars such as Danone, owner of Evian (13%). Bud APAC, the listed Asian subsidiary of the world’s mightiest brewer, AB InBev, offers a better return on capital than its Belgian-American parent.
不一定。中国饮料行业有很多值得钦佩的地方，尤其是其令人瞠目结舌的盈利能力。以中国最有价值的白酒、水和啤酒生产商为例。去年，贵州茅台近 1500 亿元人民币（210 亿美元）的销售额中有 92% 是纯毛利。对于 Diageo，这个数字是 60%。在营业利润率方面，农夫山电场（33%）超过了谷歌母公司 Alphabet （31%） 和中国最有价值的公司腾讯 （30%） 等数字巨头，更不用说依云母公司达能 （13%） 等竞争对手了。Bud APAC 是世界上最强大的啤酒酿造商百威英博 （AB InBev） 的亚洲上市子公司，其资本回报率高于其比利时裔美国母公司。

All three firms are placing an interesting wager on the future of China’s consumer economy. When hundreds of millions of Chinese shoppers first came into some disposable income a couple of decades ago, they were happy to try any product in any category. After years of conspicuous consumption many customers are now becoming more discerning, not least because of the slowdown of the property market and the hit to sentiment. The stimulus at least offers hope of lifting the gloom. But Kweichow Moutai, Nongfu and Bud apac are also hoping to make themselves especially indispensable to customers, by standing out on quality.
这三家公司都在对中国消费经济的未来下下了有趣的赌注。几十年前，当数亿中国购物者首次获得可支配收入时，他们很乐意尝试任何类别的任何产品。经过多年的炫耀性消费，许多客户现在变得更加挑剔，尤其是因为房地产市场放缓和情绪受到打击。刺激计划至少为消除阴霾提供了希望。但贵州茅台、农夫山和百威亚太也希望通过在质量上脱颖而出，使自己对客户来说特别不可或缺。

This task is simplest for the baijiu company. It controls 94% of the market for the very finest hooch, which sells for 1,200 yuan or more per half-litre bottle. It is distilled in Guizhou province and matured in ancient cellars. Virtually no other company has such facilities—or, given that the most coveted sort dates back to the Ming dynasty, which ended in 1644, any chance of getting their hands on one for another few centuries. Kweichow Moutai also enjoys a decades-old reputation as the go-to tipple at the top table of the Politburo or the People’s Liberation Army; its trademark white, red and gold bottle was a rare concession to branding even during Maoism at its greyest. As a result, the company can spend less on marketing than its rivals, reckons Morningstar, a research firm. Kweichow Moutai’s mastery lies in maintaining scarcity and a nationwide-distribution network, recently bolstered by a digital platform that enables it to respond to demand from retailers and other buyers in real time.
这个任务对于白酒公司来说是最简单的。它控制着 94% 的极好胡椒市场，每半升瓶装威士忌的售价为 1,200 元或更高。它在贵州省蒸馏，并在古老的酒窖中成熟。几乎没有其他公司拥有这样的设施——或者，鉴于最令人垂涎的设施可以追溯到 1644 年结束的明朝，他们有机会再过几个世纪就有机会得到一个。贵州茅台酒也享有数十年来的美誉，是政治局或中国人民解放军高层的首选酒馆;其标志性的白色、红色和金色瓶子是对品牌的罕见让步，即使在毛泽东时代最灰暗的时候也是如此。因此，该公司的营销支出可以比竞争对手少，研究公司晨星（Morningstar）估计。贵州茅台的专长在于保持稀缺性和全国分销网络，最近又通过一个数字平台来支持它，使其能够实时响应零售商和其他买家的需求。

Nongfu, on the other hand, has built a brand from scratch. Since its founding in 1996 it has marketed its core product as natural spring water from idyllic sources. This sets it apart from the distilled variety sold by many competitors—and enables it to charge a premium. The company is diversifying into other ready-to-drink beverages such as sugar-free tea and juices, which today account for around half of revenues, up from 40% in 2019. As with its spring water, these appeal to health nuts—a cohort that, unlike China’s population as a whole, keeps multiplying.
另一方面，农夫山技术则从零开始建立了一个品牌。自 1996 年成立以来，它的核心产品一直是来自田园诗般的天然泉水。这使它与许多竞争对手销售的蒸馏品种区分开来，并使其能够收取溢价。该公司正在多元化发展其他即饮饮料，例如无糖茶和果汁，这些饮料目前占收入的一半左右，高于 2019 年的 40%。与泉水一样，这些水也吸引了健康狂——与中国整体人口不同，这个群体不断成倍增加。

The health benefits of Budweiser are less clear-cut. Still, it and its fancier sister brands, such as Corona, Hoegaarden and Goose Island, make up for it by offering Chinese drinkers a dose of exclusivity. In contrast to budget beers, sales of which have been declining for several years, the thirst for fancier pints persists. Bud APAC’s closest rival in this category is CR Beer, which distributes Heineken in the country. But most of CR Beer’s products have been engineered to be cheaper than water, as Euan McLeish of Bernstein, a broker, puts it. Another competitor, Tsingtao, tried to lift its flagship brand to premium status with the help of new packaging and celebrity singers. When their fame proved fleeting, so did the strategy.
百威啤酒的健康益处不太明确。尽管如此，它及其更高级的姊妹品牌，如 Corona、Hoegaarden 和 Goose Island，通过为中国饮酒者提供一剂独家产品来弥补这一点。与销量多年来一直下降的廉价啤酒相比，对更高档品脱的渴望仍然存在。Bud APAC 在这一类别中最接近的竞争对手是 CR Beer，该公司在该国分销喜力啤酒。但正如经纪人伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的尤安·麦克利什（Euan McLeish）所说，CR Beer的大多数产品都被设计成比水便宜。另一家竞争对手青岛啤酒试图借助新包装和明星歌手将其旗舰品牌提升到高端地位。当他们的名声转瞬即逝时，他们的策略也转瞬即逝。

Bottle shock 瓶子减震器

Kweichow Moutai, Nongfu and Bud APAC are banking on two developments. The first is the continued growth of high-earners. This looks like a safe bet. The ranks of Chinese bringing home on average $95,000 a year increased by 7% annually between 2017 and 2022, to 93m people, according to Bernstein. By 2027 they could number more than 120m. Another 200m may make $26,000 or so, up from 170m two years ago. Together that would be nearly the current population of America.
贵州茅台、农夫山和百威亚太寄希望于两个开发项目。首先是高收入者的持续增长。这看起来是一个安全的赌注。根据伯恩斯坦的数据，从 2017 年到 2022 年，中国人平均每年带回家 95,000 美元的人数每年增长 7%，达到 93m 人。到 2027 年，他们的数量可能超过 120m。另外 200m 可能赚 $26,000 左右，高于两年前的 170m。加起来，这几乎是美国目前的人口。

The beverage trio’s second assumption is that those high-earners will open their wallets as readily as Americans do. Their recent reluctance to spend has worsened China’s deflation and spooked investors fearful of its dampening effect on earnings; the three firms’ share prices remain below their highs of four or five years ago despite the latest surge. But as long as Chinese incomes grow, consumers will fancy a tipple. Investors still holding their nose could soon be taking a snifter. ■
饮料三巨头的第二个假设是，这些高收入者会像美国人一样容易地打开钱包。他们最近的不愿花钱加剧了中国的通货紧缩，并吓坏了担心其对收益产生抑制作用的投资者;尽管最近股价飙升，但这三家公司的股价仍低于四五年前的高点。但只要中国的收入增加，消费者就会喜欢喝一杯。仍然捂着鼻子的投资者可能很快就会受到威胁。■