“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be, because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
“华尔街没有什么新的。不可能，因为猜测与山丘一样古老。今天股市发生的任何事情都发生了，并将再次发生。”
— Jesse Livermore* -Jesse Livermore*
We are publishing this without a paywall — please feel free to share with friends.
我们在没有付费墙的情况下发布此信息 - 请随时与朋友分享。
INTRODUCTION 介绍
*Long-time readers may be familiar with this Jesse Livermore quote on Markets & Investing — one of my favorites.
*长期的读者可能熟悉市场和投资中的杰西·利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的报价，这是我的最爱之一。
It has never been more relevant.
它从未如此相关。
On Monday, January 27 2025, the Tech world was thrown into chaos after a Chinese hedge-fund released a “game-changing” AI model which supposedly (keyword) cost very little to train and even less to run, compared to leading U.S. AI programs.
2025年1月27日，星期一，技术界在中国对冲基金发布了“改变游戏规则的” AI模型后陷入混乱，据说（关键字）的训练费用很少，而且跑步的费用很小，而与领导美国AI相比程序。
Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company (a crown it gave up on Monday’s rout), suffered its biggest decline since the March 2020 Global Crash, plunging -17% in a single day.
NVIDIA是世界上最有价值的公司（它在周一的溃败中放弃的王冠），自2020年3月全球崩溃以来，其下降幅度最大，一天内下降了-17％。
The table shows it was the ninth biggest one-day decline in Nvidia’s history:
该表显示，这是NVIDIA历史上第九大的一日下降：
Students of Market history will recognize most of these dates as taking place within major Bear Markets or periods of global Panic.
市场历史的学生将认识到大多数这些日期是在主要熊市或全球恐慌时期内发生的。
Which is to say — the violence of Monday’s decline was quite rare.
也就是说 - 周一下降的暴力非常罕见。
And the catchphrase heard ‘round the world was “game-changer”…
流行语听到的“世界各地”是“改变游戏规则的”…
But lost in Monday’s headless-chicken-stampede *as usual*, was the fact that there was nothing game-changing at all:
但是，像往常一样，在周一的无头鸡巴stampede *中迷失了，这是没有什么改变游戏的事实：
For months, the Market signaled the systematic deterioration and breakdown of the entire Semiconductor group.
几个月来，市场标志着整个半导体组的系统恶化和分解。At every possible opportunity, I carefully reiterated my concerns, flagging key Stocks as they developed plunge sequences — and prices followed through with vertical collapses.
在所有可能的机会中，我仔细地重申了我的担忧，在开发暴跌序列时标记了关键股票，而垂直崩溃的价格随之而来。It was only a matter of time until they came after the leader.
直到他们追随领导者，这只是时间问题。
*Link to October 16 Special Report: “Go Into The Light”.
*链接到10月16日的特别报告：“进入光明”。
Here’s where those Charts stand now:
这些图表现在所处的位置：
Nothing game-changing here — just a major downtrend which still looks to be developing…
这里没有什么改变游戏的 - 只是一个似乎正在发展的重大下降趋势……
As Investors, we should always ask:
作为投资者，我们应该始终询问：
→ Do we want to Buy this dip?
→我们想购买此蘸酱吗？
→ Does the “news of the day” — and all the associated noise and uninformed takes/calls/opinions, change anything?
→“每日新闻”以及所有相关的噪音和无知的噪音都会带来/呼叫/意见，更改任何内容？
My answer to both is: probably not.
我对两者的回答是：可能不是。
NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN
阳光下没有什么新的
Some key statistics for context:
上下文的一些关键统计信息：
NVDA made zero gains since June 2024 — nearly eight months.
自2024年6月以来，NVDA取得了零收益，将近八个月。*Then in classic fashion, it was featured in a Barron’s magazine cover in mid-November, near the final Top.
*然后以经典的方式，在11月中旬的Barron杂志封面上展出，在最后的顶部。Semiconductor Stocks (SOX Index, SMH ETF) peaked in July 2024 — nearly seven months ago.
半导体库存（SOX指数，SMH ETF）在2024年7月 - 七个月前达到顶峰。The relative performance of Semiconductors peaked in June 2024 — nearly eight months ago.
半导体的相对性能在2024年6月 - 八个月前达到顶峰。Since peaking in July 2024, SOX/SMH were already down -10% heading into Monday’s open, while the S&P was up +10% over the same period. An astounding underperformance, in what was widely considered the growth driver/investment winner of our age.
自2024年7月达到顶峰以来，SOX/SMH已经下跌-10％进入周一的公开赛，而标准普尔则在同一时期上涨了10％。令人惊讶的表现不佳，被广泛认为是我们时代的增长驱动力/投资冠军。Perhaps worst of all, heading into Monday’s open the average Semiconductor Stock was already down 20% from its 2024 high.
也许最糟糕的是，进入周一的公开赛平均半导体股票已经比其2024年高的20％下降了20％。
Altogether, Monday’s “uh-oh” moment just cemented the potential early stages of a Bear Market, gradually taking hold…
总的来说，星期一的“ UH-OH”时刻巩固了熊市的潜在早期阶段，逐渐占据……
*One should always be alert for Short-Term rallies, especially after high-volume panic days. But the direction of Momentum was and remains clear for months… Don’t fight the tape.
*应该始终对短期集会保持警惕，尤其是在大批量恐慌之后。但是动量的方向已经过去了几个月……不要与磁带打架。
A LOOK THROUGH HISTORY 浏览历史
Technology Tops take time — and Momentum gradually turns negative, then “all at once”:
技术高级需要时间 - 动量逐渐变为负面，然后“一次”：
Sentiment-wise, everyone is a Long-Term Tech-focused investor — until their portfolio drops 40-50% (*note: even in Bull Markets):
从情感方面，每个人都是一个以技术为重点的投资者 -直到他们的投资组合下降40-50％（*注意：即使在牛市中）：
*Related: all we heard on Twitter yesterday were reasons to “Buy the dip”.
*相关：我们昨天在Twitter上听到的只是“购买蘸酱”的原因。
If we focus 100% on Momentum signals here, and IF the Trend remains negative (something which no one seems prepared for), then what if:
如果我们在这里100％专注于动量信号，如果趋势仍然负面（似乎没有人准备的事情），那就怎么办：
- Semiconductors are in a standard pullback to long-term chart support?
- 半导体对长期图表支持的标准回调？
- Would this be abnormal? And if this is the driving force, how long could it take?
- 这会异常吗？如果这是驱动力，可以花多长时间？
*Note this potential topping structure displays similarities to other important Tech Tops throughout history — including the ARKK, QQQ and NASDAQ charts shown earlier.
*请注意，这种潜在的顶层结构显示了与整个历史上其他重要技术顶部的相似之处，包括前面显示的ARKK，QQQ和NASDAQ图表。
(And it could become a targeted, opportunistic Short as the year goes on.)
（随着年的发展，它可能成为有针对性的机会，机会性的短暂。）
No crystal ball needed. Just thinking about what is possible — and listening to the Market as it shows us the way.
不需要水晶球。只是考虑可能的可能性 - 并在向我们展示道路时倾听市场。
Stay tuned. 敬请关注。
FINAL THOUGHTS: AS THE DUST SETTLES…
最终想法：随着尘埃落定……
Remember that cutting-edge Technology is always extremely volatile, and AI fits the clear profile of a Revolution in its very early stages.
请记住，尖端技术总是非常波动，AI在很早的阶段就符合革命的清晰概况。
The lesson of history is simple — new Tech regularly becomes a “Love Story”, gets priced for perfection, and inevitably something comes along to disrupt expectations. Then… Momentum turns negative, Investors run off the cliff, and don’t realize it (or accept that the balance of risks may have changed).
历史的教训很简单 - 新技术经常成为一个“爱情故事”，定价为完美，不可避免地会出现破坏期望的事情。然后……动量变负，投资者从悬崖上跑了出来，没有意识到这一点（或接受风险平衡可能已经改变）。
With every new Tech, fortunes will be made and lost.
This emerging volatility is now tracking closely with what I wrote in December’s Special Report — regarding the potential risks and opportunities for 2025, and a challenging “Hurricane year” forming.
*If so, reflex dip-buyers could be sorely disappointed, and opportunistic Investors could shine.
Meanwhile, plenty of non-Tech Stocks were UP despite Monday’s rout (nearly 70% of the S&P closed in green territory).
And as the noise level rises, you’re probably hearing from many who “sold everything the day before”.
But remember that in times like these, for the 99.9% of us investing in the real world, “selling everything” isn’t necessary at all.
There was ample time to reduce Semiconductor exposure thoughtfully for months — and at the end of the day, Investing is about adjusting the sails gradually as the winds change.
Focus on the BIG ideas and trends and the signals that matter — and in the long run, nothing in Wall Street will be new, or change how you Invest.
Thanks for reading.
Onwards and upwards, -MC
Simply superb history lesson. You are a born teacher, MC! Cheers.
Thanks MC! These more "textual" posts are also of great help, and provide insight into your thought processes.