Which statement best describes the Epidemiological Transition? 哪句话最能描述流行病学转变？
a. A shift in the leading causes of death from infectious diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases a. 主要死亡原因从传染病转向退化性疾病和人为疾病
Analysis: This statement accurately describes the Epidemiological Transition, which refers to the shift from infectious diseases (such as malaria and tuberculosis) being the primary cause of death in pre-industrial societies to non-communicable diseases (such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes) becoming the main causes of death in more developed societies. 分析 ：这句话准确地描述了流行病学转变，即从传染病（如疟疾和肺结核）成为前工业化社会的主要死亡原因，转变为非传染性疾病（如心脏病、癌症和糖尿病）成为较发达社会的主要死亡原因。
b. A transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates b. 从高出生率、高死亡率向低出生率、低死亡率转变
Analysis: This describes the Demographic Transition rather than the Epidemiological Transition. The Demographic Transition focuses on the overall changes in birth and death rates, while the Epidemiological Transition specifically focuses on shifts in mortality causes. 分析 ：这描述的是人口转变，而非流行病学转变。人口转变关注的是出生率和死亡率的总体变化，而流行病学转变则特别关注死亡原因的变化。
c. The process by which a population’s age structure shifts toward an older population thanks to an increase in life expectancy c. 随着预期寿命的增加，人口年龄结构向老龄化转变的过程
Analysis: While life expectancy is indeed an important factor in the Epidemiological Transition, this statement more closely relates to population aging, which is a consequence of the transition, not its defining feature. 分析 ：虽然预期寿命确实是流行病学转变的一个重要因素，但这一说法与人口老龄化更为密切相关，人口老龄化是转变的结果，而不是其决定性特征。
d. The adoption of modern healthcare practices in developing countries d. 发展中国家采用现代医疗保健实践
Analysis: While healthcare improvements are part of the Epidemiological Transition, this statement focuses on healthcare adoption rather than the shift in disease patterns, which is the core of the transition. 分析 ：虽然医疗保健的改善是流行病学转型的一部分，但该声明侧重于医疗保健的采用，而不是疾病模式的转变，而后者是转型的核心。
e. All statements above e. 以上所有陈述
Analysis: Since options b, c, and d are not correct, this option is incorrect. 分析 ：由于选项 b、c、d 不正确，因此此选项不正确。
Correct Answer: a. The shift from infectious diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases is the central characteristic of the Epidemiological Transition. 正确答案 ：a。从传染病到退化性疾病和人为疾病的转变是流行病学转型的核心特征。
Which statement best describes the demographic dividend? 下列哪项陈述最能描述人口红利？
a. The redistribution of wealth across different age groups thanks to government policies a. 政府政策导致不同年龄段的财富重新分配
Analysis: This option refers to wealth redistribution, which is not the main concept of the demographic dividend. The dividend is about a country's economic growth due to changes in the age structure, particularly a larger working-age population. 分析 ：此选项指的是财富再分配，并非人口红利的核心概念。人口红利是指一个国家由于年龄结构变化，特别是劳动年龄人口增加而带来的经济增长。
b. The phenomenon where a country experiences a decline in economic growth due to an ageing population and shrinking workforce b. 一个国家由于人口老龄化和劳动力萎缩而出现经济增长放缓的现象
Analysis: This is the opposite of the demographic dividend. An aging population can indeed lead to economic decline, but the demographic dividend refers to the economic benefits that occur when the working-age population is larger relative to the dependent population. 分析 ：这与人口红利相反。人口老龄化确实会导致经济衰退，但人口红利是指劳动年龄人口相对于受抚养人口规模较大时产生的经济效益。
c. The economic benefits that arise from a large working-age population relative to the dependent population c. 劳动年龄人口相对于受抚养人口规模较大所带来的经济效益
Analysis: This is the correct description of the demographic dividend. When the working-age population is larger than the dependent population (children and elderly), a country can experience economic growth due to higher productivity and fewer dependents. 分析 ：这是对人口红利的正确描述。当劳动年龄人口大于受抚养人口（儿童和老年人）时，一个国家就能因生产力提高和受抚养人口减少而实现经济增长。
d. None of the above d. 以上都不是
Analysis: Since option c is correct, this option is incorrect. 分析 ：选项 c 正确，因此此选项不正确。
Correct Answer: c. The demographic dividend is about the economic benefits from a larger working-age population. 正确答案 ：c。人口红利是指劳动年龄人口增加带来的经济利益。
Question 3: Determinants of Population Size, Composition, and Distribution 问题3：人口规模、构成和分布的决定因素
Which processes determine the size, composition, and spatial distribution of a population? 哪些过程决定了人口的规模、组成和空间分布？
a. Fertility and mortality a. 生育率和死亡率
Analysis: While fertility and mortality are key factors affecting population size and composition, this option overlooks migration, which is also a major determinant. 分析 ：虽然生育率和死亡率是影响人口规模和结构的关键因素，但该选项忽略了移民，而移民也是一个主要决定因素。
b. Fertility, mortality, and migration b. 生育率、死亡率和移民
Analysis: This option correctly includes the three primary factors: fertility (birth rates), mortality (death rates), and migration (movement of people). These three factors together shape population size, composition, and distribution. 分析 ：此选项正确地包含了三个主要因素：生育率（出生率）、死亡率（死亡率）和迁移（人口流动）。这三个因素共同决定了人口规模、构成和分布。
c. Fertility, mortality, migration, and aging c. 生育率、死亡率、移民和老龄化
Analysis: While aging is important for understanding changes in population structure, it is not a direct determinant of population size and distribution. Aging is a result of changes in fertility and mortality. 分析 ：老龄化对于理解人口结构变化至关重要，但它并非人口规模和分布的直接决定因素。老龄化是生育率和死亡率变化的结果。
d. Fertility, mortality, migration, aging, and urbanization d. 生育率、死亡率、移民、老龄化和城市化
Analysis: Urbanization does affect population distribution, but the direct determinants are fertility, mortality, and migration. 分析 ：城市化确实影响人口分布，但直接决定因素是生育率、死亡率和迁移率。
Correct Answer: b. Fertility, mortality, and migration are the key determinants of population size and composition. 正确答案 ：b。生育率、死亡率和迁移率是人口规模和构成的最关键决定因素。
Question 4: Global Demographic Trends to 2050 wk1 31 问题 4：2050 年前全球人口趋势第 1 周 31
Which statement best describes global demographic trends to 2050? 哪句话最能描述到 2050 年的全球人口趋势？
a. The global population is expected to grow at a declining rate a. 预计全球人口增长率将下降
Analysis: This is correct, but it’s not the best answer. While the growth rate will decline, the total population will still grow, primarily due to the youth bulge in developing countries. 分析 ：答案正确，但并非最佳答案。虽然增长率会下降，但总人口仍会增长，这主要是由于发展中国家青年人口膨胀。
b. Half the population growth to 2050 will be in Sub-Saharan Africa b. 到 2050 年，人口增长的一半将发生在撒哈拉以南非洲
Analysis: This is true and is a key demographic trend. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant proportion of global population growth due to high fertility rates. 分析 ：事实确实如此，这是一个关键的人口趋势。由于高生育率，撒哈拉以南非洲将占全球人口增长的很大一部分。
c. The gap in life expectancy between the most and the least developed countries will reduce c. 最发达国家和最不发达国家之间的预期寿命差距将缩小
Analysis: This statement is plausible, but it is not as certain as the other trends. The gap is expected to reduce, but not uniformly across all regions. 分析 ：这一说法似乎有理有据，但不如其他趋势那样确定。预计差距将会缩小，但并非所有地区都呈现统一的缩小趋势。
d. While fertility rates are expected to decline globally, there will be significant regional variations d. 虽然预计全球生育率将下降，但各地区将存在显著差异
Analysis: This is true and accurately reflects the demographic trend. Fertility rates are declining globally, but regions like Africa and South Asia will experience higher fertility compared to Europe and East Asia. 分析 ：这确实属实，准确反映了人口趋势。全球生育率正在下降，但与欧洲和东亚相比，非洲和南亚等地区的生育率将更高。
e. All statements above e. 以上所有陈述
Analysis: Since some of the statements are more accurate than others, this option is incorrect. 分析 ：由于某些陈述比其他陈述更准确，因此此选项不正确。
Correct Answer: e. All statements above are accurate in describing global demographic trends to 2050. 正确答案 ：e。以上所有陈述均准确描述了到 2050 年的全球人口趋势。
Which statement best describes the IPAT equation? 哪个陈述最能描述 IPAT 方程？
a. The relationship between population growth and resource consumption a.人口增长与资源消耗的关系
Analysis: This partially describes the IPAT equation but misses the components of affluence and technology, which are also important. 分析 ：这部分描述了 IPAT 方程，但忽略了同样重要的富裕和技术因素。
b. The impact of affluence on environmental degradation b. 富裕对环境恶化的影响
Analysis: This is part of the equation but does not capture the full scope of the IPAT model, which also includes population and technology. 分析 ：这是等式的一部分，但并未涵盖 IPAT 模型的全部范围，该模型还包括人口和技术。
c. The demographic factors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions c. 导致温室气体排放的人口因素
Analysis: This option is too narrow and focuses only on greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the IPAT equation includes broader environmental impacts. 分析 ：该选项过于狭窄，仅关注温室气体排放，而 IPAT 方程则包括更广泛的环境影响。
d. The influence of technological advances on resource exploitation d.技术进步对资源开发的影响
Analysis: Technological advances are part of the equation, but the model also considers the impact of population and affluence. 分析 ：技术进步是方程式的一部分，但该模型也考虑了人口和富裕程度的影响。
e. The contribution of population size, affluence, and technological advancement to environmental degradation e. 人口规模、富裕程度和技术进步对环境恶化的影响
Analysis: This is the correct description of the IPAT equation, which expresses environmental impact as a product of population size (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). 分析 ：这是对 IPAT 方程的正确描述，该方程将环境影响表示为人口规模 (P)、富裕程度 (A) 和技术 (T) 的乘积。
Correct Answer: e. The IPAT equation expresses environmental impact based on population, affluence, and technology. 正确答案 ：e。IPAT 方程表达了基于人口、富裕程度和技术的环境影响。
Question 6: Anti-Natalist Policy 问题六：反生育政策
Which policy is an example of an indirect anti-natalist policy? 哪项政策是间接反生育政策的一个例子？
a. Offering financial incentives for each child born to encourage higher birth rates a. 为每个出生的孩子提供经济奖励，以鼓励更高的生育率
Analysis: This would be a pro-natalist policy, not anti-natalist. Pro-natalist policies encourage higher birth rates, whereas anti-natalist policies aim to reduce birth rates. 分析 ：这应该是一项支持生育的政策，而不是反对生育的政策。支持生育的政策鼓励提高生育率，而反对生育的政策则旨在降低生育率。
b. Implementing mandatory sterilisation programs for specific population groups b. 针对特定人群实施强制绝育计划
Analysis: This is a direct anti-natalist policy, as it seeks to reduce fertility by sterilizing people, which is a clear, forceful intervention. 分析 ：这是一项直接的反生育政策，因为它试图通过绝育来降低生育率，这是一种明显的强制性干预。
c. Providing free access to contraception and family planning services c. 免费提供避孕和计划生育服务
Analysis: This is also a pro-natalist policy in a way, as it helps individuals plan their families, but in the context of an anti-natalist strategy, it helps reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and can lead to lower birth rates. 分析 ：从某种程度上来说，这也是一种支持生育的政策，因为它可以帮助个人规划家庭，但在反生育策略的背景下，它有助于减少意外怀孕的数量，并可能导致出生率降低。
d. Investing in education and empowering women to make informed reproductive choices d. 投资教育并赋予妇女权力，使她们能够做出明智的生育选择
Analysis: This is an indirect anti-natalist policy. Educating women and providing access to information allows them to make informed decisions about family size, which generally leads to lower fertility rates. It is not a direct intervention but an empowerment approach. 分析 ：这是一项间接的反生育政策。教育女性并提供信息渠道，使她们能够就家庭规模做出明智的决定，这通常有助于降低生育率。这并非直接干预，而是一种赋权方法。
e. Introducing tax breaks and subsidies for families with multiple children e. 为多子女家庭提供税收减免和补贴
Analysis: This is a pro-natalist policy. Offering tax breaks and subsidies encourages families to have more children, which is the opposite of what an anti-natalist policy aims to do. 分析 ：这是一项鼓励生育的政策。提供税收减免和补贴是为了鼓励家庭生育更多孩子，这与反生育政策的初衷背道而驰。
Correct Answer: d. Investing in education and empowering women to make informed reproductive choices is an indirect anti-natalist policy because it enables lower fertility rates through non-coercive means. 正确答案 ：d。投资教育并赋予妇女权力以做出明智的生育选择是一种间接的反生育政策，因为它可以通过非强制性手段降低生育率。
Question 7: Rectangularisation of the Survival Curve wk4 p23 问题 7：生存曲线的矩形化 wk4 p23
What does the rectangularisation of the survival curve refer to? 生存曲线的矩形化指的是什么？
a. The inverse relationship between birth and death rates leading to stable population growth at older age groups a. 出生率与死亡率呈反比关系，导致老龄人口稳定增长
Analysis: This is not the correct definition. The rectangularisation of the survival curve refers to how a population's mortality is more evenly distributed across different age groups, especially as life expectancy increases. The relationship between birth and death rates is part of the demographic transition model, not the survival curve specifically. 分析 ：这不是正确的定义。生存曲线的矩形化是指人口死亡率在不同年龄段的分布更加均匀，尤其是在预期寿命增加的情况下。出生率和死亡率之间的关系是人口转变模型的一部分，而不是生存曲线本身。
b. The impact of healthcare advancements on reducing infant mortality, resulting in a more uniform distribution of deaths across age groups b. 医疗保健的进步对降低婴儿死亡率的影响，使各年龄段的死亡分布更加均匀
Analysis: This is partially correct. The rectangularisation of the survival curve does involve a more even distribution of deaths, especially as infant mortality decreases, but it also refers to improvements in life expectancy across all age groups. 分析 ：这部分正确。生存曲线的矩形化确实意味着死亡分布更加均匀，尤其是在婴儿死亡率下降的情况下，但这也意味着所有年龄段人群的预期寿命都有所提高。
c. The widening gap in life expectancy between different socio-economic groups within a population c. 人口中不同社会经济群体之间的预期寿命差距不断扩大
Analysis: This is related to social inequalities in health, but it is not the same as the rectangularisation of the survival curve. The rectangularisation focuses on the shape of the survival curve, which is related to overall mortality patterns across age groups, not socio-economic gaps. 分析 ：这与健康方面的社会不平等有关，但与生存曲线的矩形化不同。矩形化关注的是生存曲线的形状，这与各年龄段的总体死亡率模式有关，而非社会经济差距。
d. The increase in the proportion of individuals surviving to older ages d. 活到老龄的个体比例增加
Analysis: This is the correct definition. The rectangularisation of the survival curve refers to the fact that more individuals are surviving to older ages, thanks to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and overall living conditions. As a result, mortality is more evenly distributed across the lifespan, resulting in a more "rectangular" survival curve. 分析 ：这是正确的定义。生存曲线的矩形化是指由于医疗保健、卫生设施和整体生活条件的改善，越来越多的人能够活到老年。因此，死亡率在整个生命周期中的分布更加均匀，从而形成了更加“矩形”的生存曲线。
e. None of the above e. 以上都不是
Analysis: Since option d is correct, this option is incorrect. 分析 ：选项 d 正确，因此此选项不正确。
Correct Answer: d. The rectangularisation of the survival curve refers to the increase in the proportion of individuals surviving to older ages, which results in a more even distribution of mortality. 正确答案 ：d。生存曲线的矩形化是指存活到老年的个体比例增加，从而导致死亡率分布更加均匀。
Question 8: Population Pyramid Identification 问题 8：人口金字塔识别
To which country does each population pyramid belong? 每个人口金字塔属于哪个国家？
a. Country A: South Korea, Country B: Afghanistan, Country C: India, Country D: Qatar a. 国家 A：韩国，国家 B：阿富汗，国家 C：印度，国家 D：卡塔尔
Analysis: 分析 ：
Country A (South Korea): 韩国的人口金字塔应该是收窄的底部，呈现出老龄化特征，基于低生育率和高寿命预期。
Country C (Afghanistan): 阿富汗的金字塔底部较宽，呈现出高出生率和年轻人口多的特点。
Country D (India): 印度人口金字塔底部较宽，呈现出生率较高，年轻人口占比较大。
Country B (Qatar): 卡塔尔的金字塔呈现出一个年轻且底部较窄的结构，受限于大量外来劳工和低生育率，导致性别失衡。
Correct Answer: a. Country A: South Korea, Country B: Afghanistan, Country C: India, Country D: Qatar 正确答案：a. A 国：韩国，B 国：阿富汗，C 国：印度，D 国：卡塔尔.
What are the source(s) of urbanisation? 城市化的根源是什么？
a. Internal migration a. 国内移徙
Analysis: This is one of the sources of urbanization, as people move from rural areas to cities in search of better economic opportunities. 分析 ：这是城市化的来源之一，因为人们为了寻求更好的经济机会而从农村迁移到城市。
b. Internal migration and international migration b. 国内移徙和国际移徙
Analysis: This is correct. Both internal migration (rural to urban) and international migration contribute to urban growth, as people move to cities for jobs, better living standards, and services. 分析 ：正确。国内移民（农村到城市）和国际移民都促进了城市发展，因为人们为了工作、更好的生活水平和服务而迁往城市。
c. Internal migration, international migration and natural increase c. 国内移徙、国际移徙和自然增长
Analysis: This is the most comprehensive answer. Urbanization is driven by people moving to cities (internal and international migration) and by natural population increase (birth rates exceeding death rates in urban areas). 分析 ：这是最全面的答案。城镇化是由人口迁入城市（国内和国际移民）和人口自然增长（城市地区出生率超过死亡率）推动的。
d. Internal migration, international migration, natural increase and reclassification of boundaries d. 国内移民、国际移民、自然增长和边界重新划分
Analysis: This is also correct. Reclassification of boundaries (where rural areas are redefined as urban) is an additional factor in urbanization. 分析 ：这也是正确的。边界的重新划分（将农村地区重新定义为城市）是城市化的一个额外因素。
Correct Answer: d. Internal migration, international migration, natural increase, and reclassification of boundaries all contribute to urbanization. 正确答案 ：d。国内移民、国际移民、自然增长和边界重新划分都有助于城市化。
Question 10: Bongaarts’ Fertility Transition in Africa 问题10：非洲邦加特的生育率转变
In Week 4’s reading, Bongaarts (2017) identifies several factors contributing to Africa's unique fertility transition. Which of the following is NOT one of those factors? 在第四周的阅读材料中，Bongaarts（2017）指出了导致非洲独特生育率转变的几个因素。以下哪一项不属于这些因素？
a. High levels of poverty and underdevelopment a. 贫困和欠发达程度高
Analysis: This is a contributing factor in many developing regions, including Africa. Poverty and underdevelopment often lead to higher fertility rates due to limited access to family planning and education. 分析 ：这是包括非洲在内的许多发展中地区的一个促成因素。贫困和欠发达地区往往由于计划生育和教育机会有限而导致生育率上升。
b. Limited access to modern contraceptive methods b. 现代避孕方法的可及性有限
Analysis: This is indeed one of the key factors contributing to high fertility in Africa. Limited access to contraception is a major reason for high fertility rates. 分析 ：这确实是导致非洲高生育率的关键因素之一。避孕措施的匮乏是生育率高的一个重要原因。
c. Cultural norms and preferences for large families c. 大家庭的文化规范和偏好
Analysis: Cultural preferences for large families are a strong factor in Africa, where traditional norms still play a significant role in fertility decisions. 分析 ：在非洲，对大家庭的文化偏好是一个重要因素，传统规范在生育决策中仍然发挥着重要作用。
d. Government policies promoting population control d. 政府推行人口控制政策
Analysis: This is not a major contributing factor in most African countries. While some African countries have implemented family planning policies, population control policies are not as widely enforced as in other regions. 分析 ：这在大多数非洲国家并非主要因素。虽然一些非洲国家实施了计划生育政策，但人口控制政策的执行范围不如其他地区广泛。
Correct Answer: d. Government policies promoting population control are not a significant factor in Africa's fertility transition compared to other factors like cultural norms and limited contraceptive access. 正确答案 ：d。与文化规范和避孕措施有限等其他因素相比，政府推行的人口控制政策并不是非洲生育率转变的重要因素。
Question 11: According to Lutz et al. (2019), what is the primary determinant of the demographic dividend? 问题 11：根据 Lutz 等人（2019）的研究，人口红利的主要决定因素是什么？
a. Age structure of the population a. 人口年龄结构
Analysis: This is the correct answer. The age structure of the population is a key determinant of the demographic dividend. When a country has a large proportion of its population in the working-age group (typically ages 15-64), relative to dependents (children and elderly), it creates an opportunity for economic growth. The demographic dividend occurs when this age structure allows for higher productivity and a reduced dependency burden. 分析 ：这是正确答案。 人口年龄结构是人口红利的关键决定因素。当一个国家劳动年龄人口（通常为 15-64 岁）相对于受抚养人（儿童和老年人）的比例较大时，就会创造经济增长的机会。当这种年龄结构能够提高生产力并减轻抚养负担时，就会出现人口红利。
b. Gender ratio within the population b. 人口性别比
Analysis: While gender ratios can influence certain aspects of economic activity (e.g., labor force participation), they are not the primary determinant of the demographic dividend. The dividend primarily depends on the proportion of working-age individuals in the population rather than gender distribution. 分析 ：虽然性别比例会影响经济活动的某些方面（例如劳动力参与率），但它们并非人口红利的主要决定因素。人口红利主要取决于劳动年龄人口占总人口的比例，而非性别分布。
c. Level of education attained by individuals c. 个人受教育程度
Analysis: While education does play a significant role in enhancing the potential benefits of the demographic dividend by improving labor productivity, it is not the primary determinant. The demographic dividend is more directly linked to the age structure of the population, though education can certainly amplify its effects. 分析 ：虽然教育确实在通过提高劳动生产率来增强人口红利的潜在效益方面发挥了重要作用，但它并非主要决定因素。人口红利与人口年龄结构更直接相关，尽管教育无疑可以放大其效应。
d. Total fertility rate d. 总生育率
Analysis: A lower fertility rate can contribute to a demographic dividend by slowing population growth and changing the age structure. However, the total fertility rate itself is not the direct determinant; instead, the demographic dividend is more directly influenced by the age structure that results from lower fertility over time. 分析 ：较低的生育率可以通过减缓人口增长和改变年龄结构来促进人口红利。然而， 总和生育率本身并非直接决定因素；人口红利更直接地受到生育率随时间推移而降低所形成的年龄结构的影响。
Correct Answer: a. Age structure of the population 正确答案 ：a.人口年龄结构 The primary determinant of the demographic dividend is the age structure of the population, specifically having a large working-age population relative to dependent groups. 人口红利的主要决定因素是人口的年龄结构 ，具体而言，劳动年龄人口相对于受抚养群体而言是较大的。
Which demographic rate is being referred to in the following definition? “The average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.” 以下定义指的是哪种人口比率？“如果一名妇女按照特定年份的年龄别生育率度过生育年龄，她所生育子女的平均数量。”
a. Total fertility rate a. 总生育率
Analysis: This is the correct definition. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime based on the fertility rates of a given year. 分析 ：这是正确的定义。总和生育率（TFR）是指根据某一年份的生育率，一个妇女一生中平均生育的子女数。
b. Net reproduction rate b. 净繁殖率
Analysis: The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is related to the number of daughters born to a woman over her lifetime, rather than the total number of children. It takes into account mortality rates as well. 分析 ：净生育率（NRR）与女性一生中所生育女儿的数量有关，而非子女总数。该指标也考虑了死亡率。
c. Gross reproduction rate c. 总再生产率
Analysis: The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) is similar to TFR but does not consider mortality rates. It reflects the number of daughters born to a woman but is not as commonly used as TFR. 分析 ：总生殖率（GRR）与总生育率（TFR）类似，但不考虑死亡率。它反映的是女性生育女儿的数量，但不如总生育率（TFR）常用。
d. General fertility rate d. 总体生育率
Analysis: The General Fertility Rate (GFR) is calculated as the number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (15-49 years) in a given year, but it doesn’t give an estimate of lifetime fertility. 分析 ：总体生育率（GFR）计算的是某一年每 1,000 名育龄妇女（15-49 岁）的活产婴儿数量，但它并不能估计一生的生育能力。
e. None of the above e. 以上都不是
Analysis: Since option a is correct, this option is incorrect. 分析 ：由于选项 a 正确，因此此选项不正确。
Correct Answer: a. Total fertility rate is the correct demographic rate described in the definition. 正确答案 ：a. 总和生育率是定义中描述的正确的人口率。
Crude demographic rates are “crude” because: 粗略人口统计率之所以“粗略”，是因为：
a. They are based on rough data estimates a. 它们基于粗略的数据估计
Analysis: This is partially true. Crude demographic rates are simplified measures and do not account for factors like age distribution, so they are often considered "rough" estimates. 分析 ：这部分正确。粗略人口比率是一种简化的衡量指标，不考虑年龄分布等因素，因此通常被认为是“粗略”估计。
b. They do not take into account the age structure of the population b. 没有考虑人口的年龄结构
Analysis: This is the correct explanation. Crude rates do not account for the age structure, which is why they can be misleading in populations with skewed age distributions (e.g., a country with many young people might have a high birth rate despite a low fertility rate). 分析 ：这是正确的解释。粗略增长率没有考虑年龄结构，因此在年龄分布不均的人群中可能会产生误导（例如，一个年轻人众多的国家，尽管生育率较低，但出生率可能较高）。
c. They do not take into account migration c. 他们没有考虑移民
Analysis: This is another reason why crude rates are considered imprecise. Crude rates do not factor in the impact of migration on population change, leading to inaccuracies in measuring growth or decline. 分析 ：这也是粗略增长率被认为不准确的另一个原因。粗略增长率没有考虑移民对人口变化的影响，导致衡量人口增长或下降的准确性。
d. Statements b) and c) d. 陈述 b) 和 c)
Analysis: This is correct. Both age structure and migration are not accounted for in crude demographic rates, which is why they are considered "crude." 分析 ：正确。年龄结构和迁移率均未计入粗略人口率，因此它们被认为是“粗略的”。
Correct Answer: d. Crude rates do not account for the age structure or migration, which makes them "crude." 正确答案 ：d。粗略利率没有考虑年龄结构或移民因素，因此显得“粗略”。
Which stage of the demographic transition is characterised by falling crude death rates? 人口结构转变的哪个阶段以粗死亡率下降为特征？
a. Stage 1 a. 第一阶段
Analysis: In Stage 1 of the demographic transition, both birth rates and death rates are high, so the population is relatively stable, and there is no significant decline in crude death rates. 分析 ：人口转变第一阶段，出生率和死亡率均较高，人口相对稳定，粗死亡率没有出现明显下降。
b. Stage 2 b. 第二阶段
Analysis: This is correct. In Stage 2, death rates begin to fall due to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition, while birth rates remain high, leading to population growth. 分析 ：正确。在第二阶段，由于医疗保健、卫生和营养状况的改善，死亡率开始下降，而出生率仍然很高，导致人口增长。
c. Stage 3 c. 第 3 阶段
Analysis: In Stage 3, death rates remain low, and birth rates begin to decline, leading to slower population growth. However, the focus of this question is on the stage where death rates first begin to fall. 分析 ：在第三阶段，死亡率保持在低位，出生率开始下降，导致人口增长放缓。然而，本题的重点是死亡率首次开始下降的阶段。
d. Stage 4 d. 第四阶段
Analysis: In Stage 4, both birth rates and death rates are low, and population growth stabilizes. This stage follows the significant decline in death rates that occurs in Stage 2. 分析 ：第四阶段，出生率和死亡率均处于较低水平，人口增长趋于稳定。这一阶段是第二阶段死亡率大幅下降之后的阶段。
Correct Answer: b. Stage 2 is the stage characterized by falling crude death rates. 正确答案 ：b。第二阶段的特点是粗死亡率下降。
Question 15: Life Table wk4 p18 问题 15：生命表 wk4 p18
The life table is an accurate reflection of: 生命表准确反映了：
a. The mortality experience of an actual population a. 实际人口的死亡率
Analysis: This is true. A life table provides a detailed analysis of mortality patterns in a specific population, showing the probability of death at each age. 分析 ：正确。生命表详细分析了特定人群的死亡模式，显示了各个年龄段的死亡概率。
b. A theoretical population model b. 理论人口模型
Analysis: While life tables can be used in theoretical models, they are usually based on real-life population data to estimate mortality patterns. 分析 ：虽然生命表可用于理论模型，但它们通常基于现实生活中的人口数据来估计死亡模式。
c. Infant mortality c. 婴儿死亡率
Analysis: Although life tables can help analyze infant mortality as part of overall mortality, they do not exclusively focus on it. 分析 ：虽然生命表可以帮助分析婴儿死亡率作为总体死亡率的一部分，但它们并不只关注婴儿死亡率。
d. A combination of observed and theoretical mortality characteristics d. 观察到的和理论上的死亡率特征的组合
Analysis: This is true, but not the most precise. Life tables primarily use observed data to reflect mortality patterns, but they can also incorporate projections or estimates. 分析 ：这确实正确，但不是最精确的。生命表主要使用观察数据来反映死亡率模式，但也可以包含预测或估计。
Correct Answer: a. The life table accurately reflects the mortality experience of an actual population. 正确答案 ：a。生命表准确地反映了实际人口的死亡经历。
Question 16: Demographic Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants and Consequences 问题16：撒哈拉以南非洲的人口趋势：决定因素和后果
Current and Projected Trends in Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）人口增长的当前和预测趋势
Current Trends: Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s fastest-growing region, with high birth rates and decreasing mortality rates. This has resulted in rapid population growth in recent decades. 当前趋势 ：撒哈拉以南非洲是世界上人口增长最快的地区，出生率高，死亡率下降。这导致了近几十年来人口的快速增长。
Projected Trends: By 2050, SSA’s population is expected to double, making up over a quarter of the global population. Half the population growth to 2050 will be in Sub-Saharan Africa. The population growth is primarily driven by high fertility rates, especially in countries with young populations and low access to family planning. 预测趋势 ：到 2050 年，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人口预计将翻一番，占全球人口的四分之一以上。 到 2050 年，人口增长的一半将来自撒哈拉以南非洲地区 。 人口增长主要受高生育率驱动，尤其是在人口结构年轻且计划生育普及率低的国家。
Contribution of Each Driver of Population Change in SSA 撒哈拉以南非洲地区各人口变化驱动因素的贡献
Fertility: High fertility rates are the primary driver of population growth in SSA. In many SSA countries, women have an average of 5 or more children, significantly higher than global averages. 生育率 ：高生育率是撒哈拉以南非洲地区人口增长的主要驱动力。在许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家，女性平均生育 5 个或更多子女，显著高于全球平均水平。
Mortality: Mortality rates have decreased, but infant and maternal mortality rates remain high in many SSA countries due to limited access to healthcare. However, there have been significant improvements in healthcare infrastructure, leading to a decline in overall mortality. 死亡率 ：死亡率有所下降，但由于医疗保健服务有限，许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家的婴儿和产妇死亡率仍然很高。不过，医疗基础设施已得到显著改善，导致总体死亡率下降。
Migration: Migration in SSA is significant, both internally (from rural areas to cities) and internationally (from SSA to other parts of the world). Migration patterns are influenced by economic opportunities, conflict, and environmental factors. 移民 ：撒哈拉以南非洲地区的移民现象十分普遍，既有内部移民（从农村迁往城市），也有国际移民（从撒哈拉以南非洲地区迁往世界其他地区）。移民模式受到经济机遇、冲突和环境因素的影响。
SSA differs from other regions in terms of fertility: SSA remains unique in its high fertility rates compared to other regions, due to factors like cultural norms favoring large families, lower access to family planning, and a lack of comprehensive reproductive health services. 撒哈拉以南非洲地区在生育率方面与其他地区有所不同 ：与其他地区相比，撒哈拉以南非洲地区仍然保持着独特的高生育率，这是由于文化规范倾向于大家庭、计划生育机会较少以及缺乏全面的生殖健康服务等因素造成的。
Consequences of SSA’s Demographic Trends 撒哈拉以南非洲人口趋势的后果
Economic Consequences: 经济后果 ：
Positive: The youth bulge can provide a demographic dividend, where a larger working-age population drives economic growth. 积极方面：青年人口膨胀可以带来人口红利，更大的劳动年龄人口可以推动经济增长。
Negative: However, high fertility rates can strain resources, making it harder for SSA countries to invest in healthcare, education, and infrastructure. 负面：然而，高生育率可能会造成资源紧张，使撒哈拉以南非洲国家更难以投资医疗保健、教育和基础设施。
Social Consequences: 社会后果 ：
With rapid population growth, there is increased demand for social services such as healthcare and education. This can lead to overcrowding, especially in urban areas, and higher poverty rates. 随着人口快速增长，对医疗保健和教育等社会服务的需求也随之增加。这可能导致城市人口过度拥挤（尤其是在城市地区），并导致贫困率上升。
Geopolitical Consequences: 地缘政治后果 ：
SSA’s growing population could lead to political instability, especially where resources are scarce. Large youth populations with limited employment opportunities can contribute to social unrest. 撒哈拉以南非洲地区人口增长可能导致政治不稳定，尤其是在资源匮乏的地区。大量青年人口和有限的就业机会可能加剧社会动荡。
Question 17: The Proximate Determinants of Fertility and Policymaking 问题17：生育率和政策制定的直接决定因素
Diagram结构解读：
1. Exposure to Intercourse（性行为的暴露） 1.暴露于性行为（性行为的暴露）
Outline of the Different Components of the Model (10 points) 模型不同组成部分的概述（10 分）
This model identifies the proximate (biological and behavioral) determinants that directly influence fertility, structured in three stages: 该模型确定了直接影响生育能力的近因（生物和行为）决定因素 ，分为三个阶段：
A. Exposure to Intercourse A. 接触性交
These factors determine whether and how often women are exposed to the risk of conception: 这些因素决定了女性是否以及多久会面临受孕风险：
Age at marriage or sexual union: Earlier marriage increases exposure. 结婚或性结合的年龄 ：较早结婚会增加风险。
Monogamy/Polygamy: Affects number of sexual partners and exposure. 一夫一妻制/一夫多妻制 ：影响性伴侣的数量和接触机会。
Widowhood, Divorce: Can reduce sexual exposure. 丧偶、离婚 ：可减少性接触。
Definition: 定义： Proposed by Omran in 1971, the Epidemiological Transition (ET) describes the shift from high to low mortality rates and the associated change in the primary causes of death. 流行病学转变 (ET) 由奥姆兰于 1971 年提出，描述了死亡率从高到低的转变以及主要死亡原因的相关变化。 定义： 1971年由 Omran 提出，“流行病学转变”模型描述了人类社会从高死亡率向低死亡率转变的过程，以及随之而来的死亡原因从传染病转向慢性退行性疾病的变化。
Four Key Stages（四个阶段）： 四个关键阶段（四个阶段）：
1. Age of Pestilence and Famine 1. 瘟疫与饥荒时代
1. 瘟疫与饥荒阶段
Features: Very high mortality; life expectancy under 30 years. 特点： 死亡率极高；预期寿命不足 30 岁。
特征： 死亡率极高，预期寿命低于30岁。
Causes of death: Infectious diseases, famine, poor sanitation. 死亡原因： 传染病、饥荒、卫生条件差。
主要死因： 传染病、饥荒、不洁水源。
Examples: Pre-industrial Europe, present-day South Sudan or Yemen. 例如： 前工业化的欧洲、现在的南苏丹或也门。
国家例子： 工业革命前的欧洲、当代的南苏丹或也门。
2. Age of Receding Pandemics 2. 疫情消退时代
2. 疫情消退阶段
Features: Declining mortality; life expectancy rises to 30–50 years. 特点： 死亡率下降；预期寿命上升至 30 至 50 岁。
特征： 死亡率下降，预期寿命升至30–50岁。
Drivers: Public health improvements, vaccination, clean water. 驱动因素： 公共卫生改善、疫苗接种、清洁水。
原因： 公共卫生改善、疫苗接种、清洁饮水。
Examples: 19th-century UK and USA; modern-day Bangladesh. 例如：19 世纪的英国和美国；现代的孟加拉国。
国家例子： 19世纪的英国和美国、现代孟加拉国。
3. Age of Man-made and Degenerative Diseases 3. 人为和退行性疾病时代
3. 人为与退行性疾病阶段
Features: Chronic diseases become dominant causes of death. 特点： 慢性病成为主要死亡原因。
Neglects environmental/global issues: Climate change, pollution, and migration are not included. 忽视环境/全球问题 ：不包括气候变化、污染和移民。 忽略环境与全球化：未考虑气候变化、污染与跨国流动对健康的影响。
Limited to Western experience: The model is based on Western Europe, not fully applicable to the Global South. 局限于西方经验 ：该模型基于西欧，并不完全适用于全球南方。 以西方经验为主：对发展中国家的解释力有限。
