There are defensive stocks — the companies investors retreat to in times of distress, like McDonald’s, because of their sturdy and reliable business — and then there are defense stocks — the companies that arm nations for volatile geopolitical times.
防禦型股票（如麥當勞）是投資者在動盪時期的避風港，而國防股票則在動盪地緣政治時期武裝國家。

Last week, a convergence of sorts occurred: The world’s largest transnational military alliance, NATO, announced that its 32 members agreed to boost their defense spending to 5% of their national GDPs by 2035, a massive leap from the current 2% guideline that will unlock hundreds of billions for defense firms. Just don’t expect soldiers in basic training to be eating McMuffins.
北約宣布其 32 個成員國將在 2035 年前將國防支出提高到 GDP 的 5%，從目前的 2%大幅提升，為國防公司釋放數十億資金。

US Firm Seeks Windfall from Quantum Leap

NATO chief Mark Rutte said last week that the new defense spending target amounts to a “quantum leap.” The 5% target will be broken into two segments, with member nations expected to put 3.5% of GDP toward traditional military spending and another 1.5% toward defense-related investments like cybersecurity and military mobility.
北約秘書長稱5%目標為「量子跳躍」，分為3.5%用於傳統軍事和1.5%用於網路安全等國防相關投資。

To put it in perspective, the EU spent about €326 billion ($381 billion) on defense last year, or about 1.9% of GDP. And 23 of the bloc’s 27 nations are members of NATO, meaning they will aim to spend hundreds of billions more per year on defense by 2035. Defense firms stand to profit handsomely, in part because European defense requires significant modernization. In 2023, the bloc dedicated just 19.5% of its defense expenditures to capital investments, such as equipment and research and development, compared with 40.7% in the US. The continent’s major defense firms like Germany’s Rheinmetall, France’s Thales, the UK’s BAE Systems and Italy’s Leonardo are the obvious candidates to capture the windfall, but they’re not alone on the radar:
歐盟去年支出約佔 GDP 的 1.9%於國防。23 個北約成員國將在 2035 年前每年增加數十億支出。國防公司因現代化需求獲利；2023 年資本投資比例僅 19.5%，低於美國的 40.7%。公司如萊茵金屬、泰雷茲、BAE 系統和李奧納多將受益，但還有其他公司。

• California-based Anduril had a couple of perfectly timed announcements earlier this month. One of the most valuable private startups, the Peter Thiel-backed firm currently assessed at $30 billion will offer its aerial vehicles in Europe through a partnership with Rheinmetall. Saab also tapped it to manufacture rocket motors for a ground-launched bomb system the Swedish firm is developing with Boeing. CEO and founder Palmer Luckey said earlier this month that Anduril is “definitely going to be a publicly traded company,” and its focus on autonomous systems and drones positions it to benefit uniquely because of the prominent role they’ve played in the Ukraine war.
  安杜里爾本月宣布與萊茵金屬合作在歐洲提供無人機，並為薩博製造火箭發動機。執行長表示將上市；專注自主系統和無人機，受益於烏克蘭戰爭中的角色，其估值約 300 億美元。
• RBC analysts highlighted two French aviation giants with significant exposure: Airbus, which derives roughly 23% of its revenue from defense and space, and Safran, which derives roughly 20% of its revenue from the same sectors. They also highlighted an American sleeper in Lockheed Martin, which already makes about 11% of its sales in Europe.
  RBC 分析師強調空中巴士（國防收入佔 23%）和賽峰（20%），以及洛克希德·馬丁（歐洲銷售佔 11%）。

No, Gracias: NATO’s initial commitment to 2% of GDP spending, made in 2002, initially struggled to gain traction. Only six members had fulfilled the pledge by 2021, but the war in Ukraine, the first large-scale conflict in Europe since the Second World War, flipped a switch: 23 members met the target as of last year, and all 32 are on track to reach it by the end of the year. However, a handful of countries, including Spain, Belgium and Slovakia, have raised objections to the new target, suggesting its full impact on defense spending may be subject to marginal disputes in the years to come.
不，謝謝： 北約的 2%目標最初進展緩慢，但烏克蘭戰爭推動進展：去年 23 國達標，今年所有 32 國將達標。但西班牙、比利時和斯洛伐克反對新 5%目標，預示未來可能爭議。

Ripping up the red tape around public market debuts could lead to more ribbon-cutting ceremonies for startups.
減少 IPO 的繁文縟節可能促進更多新創公司上市。

Or at least that’s the hope of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is reportedly in talks with major stock exchanges to ease disclosure rules for public companies and spur initial public offerings. The agency is interested in “an overhaul of current proxy processes” that would, among other things, ease disclosure requirements, Reuters reported last week. Exchange listing fees and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) were also a part of the months-long discussions between the regulator and exchanges.
證交會正與主要交易所談判，放寬上市公司披露規定以刺激 IPO，包括改革代理流程。路透社報導該機構討論降低上市費用和 SPAC。

Friendlier Cop on the Beat

SEC Chair Paul Atkins’s stance on financial regulation contrasts starkly with that of his predecessor, Gary Gensler.
證交會主席阿特金斯的監管立場與前任根斯勒形成鮮明對比。

“As the chairman has said, capital formation is at the root of what we do — fostering a direct, economical route for investors’ capital to find its way to entrepreneurs and industry to create products and services. The SEC is focused on this engine of growth,” an SEC spokesperson said in response to The Daily Upside’s emailed query.
證交會發言人表示，主席強調資本形成是核心，促進投資者資金流向企業以推動增長。

Gensler was focused on enhancing US capital markets as well, but took an aggressively cautious turn as speculative trading in crypto, meme stocks and SPACs, or blank-check companies, reached a fever pitch. He rolled out dozens of rules to bolster investor protection, which some blamed for a steep decline in IPO activity in 2022, when the pace of public debuts was the slowest in over three decades. The SEC’s crackdown on crypto, which included aggressive use of enforcement action, earned Gensler the title of industry public enemy No. 1.
詹斯勒原本也致力強化美國資本市場，但在加密貨幣、 迷因股與特殊目的收購公司 (SPAC)的投機交易熱潮達到頂峰時，政策立場轉為高度謹慎。他推出數十項新規強化投資人保護，部分人士認為這導致 2022 年 IPO 活動銳減，當年上市速度創下 30 多年新低。證交會對加密貨幣的強力打壓包含積極運用執法行動 ，使詹斯勒贏得業界「頭號公敵」的稱號。

Under Gensler’s leadership, the SEC enacted rules on climate risk disclosure, cybersecurity incident reporting and proxy voting. According to an October 2024 report from the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, which compared the pace of SEC rulemaking under different leaders:
在詹斯勒領導下，美國證交會制定氣候風險披露、網路安全事件通報及委託書投票新規。 根據資本市場規管委員會2024年10月報告比較不同領導人任內規則制定速度指出：

• Gensler enacted 34 rules, exceeding three of his most recent predecessors by an average of 36%. He oversaw the issuance of 49 proposed and final substantive rulemakings, which topped only the 67 issued by Mary Schapiro among the past three agency chairs.
  甘斯勒頒布34項規則，比最近三位前任平均高出36%。 他監督49項規則制定，在過去三位機構主席中，只低於瑪麗·夏皮羅的67項。
• However, Schapiro operated under a congressional mandate for more than half of her total rules, whereas Gensler’s rules were mostly voluntary, with nine of those, or roughly 18%, resulting from a directive.
  然而，Schapiro 的規則過半基於國會授權，而 Gensler 的則多為自願性，其中九個（約 18%）源自指令。

While IPO activity is still down, newly listed companies have been performing well.
儘管 IPO 活動仍低迷，新上市公司表現良好。

Winds of Change: Easing regulation could help put the wind back in the US equity market’s sails, but market volatility threatens to counteract it. “Although macro crosscurrents like trade policy and recessionary fears could continue to challenge the markets, the potential for a solid IPO rebound remains if markets can digest them,” EY Americas IPO and SPAC advisory leader Mark Schwartz wrote in a report published in April.
變革之風： 法規放鬆可能有助於提振美國股市，但市場波動可能抵消其效果。"儘管貿易政策和衰退擔憂等宏觀因素可能持續挑戰市場，但若能消化這些因素，IPO 反彈潛力仍存，" 安永美國 IPO 和 SPAC 諮詢主管 Mark Schwartz 在四月發布的報告中寫道。

BYD has taken the lead, and as it comes around the bend, it’s … tapping its brakes?
BYD 領先轉彎時點剎車

According to a Reuters report last week, the Chinese car giant — which earlier this year surpassed Tesla as the world’s top EV seller by revenue — has started slowing production in recent months. The pullback comes as BYD makes major gains outside of China. So what gives?
據路透社上周報導 ，中國汽車巨頭 BYD——今年超越 Tesla 成為全球電動車營收最高賣家——最近放緩生產，儘管海外市場進展顯著。 原因何在？

On the Road

In March, BYD reported that its fourth-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2024 had jumped 73% year-over-year — pushing its total annual revenue past $100 billion, narrowly outstripping Tesla’s $97.7 billion 2024 revenue to become the top-selling EV company in the world. And crucially for BYD, that race is now taking place on highways (almost) the world over, not just in its home country, where it has long been a dominant player.
比亞迪在三月報告，2024財年第四季收入年增73%，推動年收入超過1000億美元，略超特斯拉的977億美元，成為全球最暢銷電動車公司。 對比亞迪而言，這場競爭現已擴展至全球，而不僅限於其長期主導的中國市場。

BYD is now the EV pace-setter in Europe, too, according to a recent report from automotive firm JATO Dynamics, which showed that BYD notched a 359% year-over-year surge in April sales in the region, outstripping Tesla. That comes even as BYD vehicles face a much higher tariff rate on the continent than Tesla (last year, the EU imposed punitive tariffs on BYD as it probed whether the company employed unfair pricing tactics).
據 JATO Dynamics 報告，比亞迪在歐洲成為電動車領導者，四月銷售年增 359%，超越特斯拉。儘管其車輛面臨比特斯拉更高的關稅，去年歐盟因調查不公平定價而實施懲罰性關稅。

Yet for all that success, BYD appears to be hitting the brakes extra hard:
BYD 大獲成功卻猛踩煞車

• According to sources who spoke to Reuters, the company has been canceling night shifts and has decreased output by as much as 33% at several factories. The company has also suspended some of its plans to launch new production lines, the sources said. Data from the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that output at BYD plants slowed 29% in April and May compared with the fourth quarter of 2024.
  據路透消息人士透露，該公司已取消夜班生產，多家工廠產量降幅達33%。相關人士表示，公司同時暫緩了部分新生產線啟動計畫。中國汽車工業協會數據顯示，比亞迪工廠4至5月產量較2024年第四季衰退29%。
• The why remains unclear, with some sources telling Reuters it was a cost-saving measure and others saying it resulted from failing to meet recent sales goals. Some evidence suggests slowing sales: According to a China Automotive Dealer Association survey in May, BYD dealers held an industry-high average inventory of 3.21 months, well above the industry average of 1.38 months.
  原因仍不明確，一些消息來源稱是節省成本措施，其他則說是未能達到近期銷售目標。有證據顯示銷售放緩：根據中國汽車經銷商協會五月調查，BYD 經銷商的平均庫存達 3.21 個月，為業界最高，遠高於平均 1.38 個月。

Xiaomi Too: The possible over-supply shouldn’t be that surprising. In June, the China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce released a statement urging automakers to stop offloading too many cars onto dealerships, as the resulting price wars were eroding profitability. Still, some Chinese automakers are roaring ahead on nitrous oxide. On Friday, shares of upstart EV player Xiaomi surged 5% to a record high after the company received 240,000 orders in just 18 hours for its new YU7 electric SUV model. Priced 4% lower than the Model Y in the country, Xiaomi is just another player breathing down the neck of Tesla, China’s once and perhaps not future EV king.
小米隱憂： 供應過剩本在意料之中。 中國汽車流通協會六月發佈聲明 ，呼籲車廠停止向轉銷商過度壓庫，因價格戰已侵蝕獲利。 然而部分中國車廠仍加速前進——小米新款 YU7 電動 SUV 上市 18 小時即獲 24 萬張訂單，周五股價應聲暴漲 5%創新高。 該車款定價比特斯拉 Model Y 低 4%，正緊追這位昔日中國電動車霸主的後頸。