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China Export Tracker  中国出口追踪器
Number 2: What corporates are telling us (week of Apr 28, 2025)
第二期:企业向我们透露的信息(2025 年 4 月 28 日当周)
Table of Contents
1 May 2025 | 10:37PM HKT | Research | Equity
2025 年 5 月 1 日 | 香港时间 22:37 | 研究 | 股票
| By Trina Chen and others
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The China Export Tracker is a research product series put together by the GS China team, focusing on the changing dynamics of China exports to the US, amid the intensified uncertainty around export activity due to the US-China tariff escalation.
《中国出口追踪报告》是高盛中国团队汇编的研究产品系列,聚焦于中美关税升级背景下中国对美出口动态的变化,以及由此带来的出口活动不确定性加剧。
In this tracker, we present our proprietary work across 48 corporates, with products representing nearly 70% of China export value by product group to the US, to gauge the magnitude and pace of change in China-to-US trade as the tariff situation evolves. We expect this high frequency data to be extremely volatile. To supplement this data, we also provide summaries of comments from the companies, on no-name basis, around the trends in their US export orderbooks, thoughts on pricing discussions with their customers, supply chain shift and management, and inventories.
在本追踪报告中,我们通过覆盖 48 家企业的专有研究成果(其产品占中国对美出口产品类别总值的近 70%),来评估中美贸易在关税形势演变中的变化规模与速度。我们预计此类高频数据将呈现极大波动性。为补充数据,我们还以匿名方式汇总企业关于美国出口订单簿趋势、与客户价格谈判的考量、供应链转移与管理以及库存情况的评论摘要。
In our second edition, we asked corporates about 1) changes in their export orders received from the US, their China export shipments and production, 2) trends in their supply chain adjustments and inventories, 3) progress in pricing discussions with their customers, and 4) their longer run considerations around capital allocation and shifts in the global supply chain. What we have learned, as of week of April 28, 2025:
在第二期调研中,我们向企业询问了以下方面:1)来自美国的出口订单变化、对华出口发货量及生产情况;2)供应链调整与库存趋势;3)与客户价格谈判进展;4)长期资本配置考量及全球供应链转移动向。截至 2025 年 4 月 28 日当周的主要发现:

1. Export orders from the US were largely unchanged versus pre-tariff levels
1. 来自美国的出口订单较加税前水平基本持平

Versus the pre-tariff levels (100%), the average orders from the US received by the Chinese corporates were at 92% as of week of April 28, slightly edged up from 90% as of mid-April. The period of stabilization has led to marginal recovery in the orderbook, and mild rush orders are being seen from the US.
以加税前水平为基准(100%),中国企业接收的美国订单均值在 4 月 28 日当周为 92%,较 4 月中旬的 90%略有回升。订单量趋稳带动小幅复苏,并出现来自美国的零星急单。
Chinese corporates' export orders to other non-US regions were mostly unchanged. However, it is worth noting nearly 20% of the corporates have seen improvement in their ex-US exports, including pet treats, furniture, construction machinery, chemical intermediates, logistics service, container shipping, and home textile products.
中国企业对其他非美地区的出口订单总体稳定。值得注意的是,近 20%企业非美出口业务有所改善,涉及宠物零食、家具、工程机械、化工中间体、物流服务、集装箱航运及家纺产品等领域。

2. China shipments and production remain in substantial decline, partly replaced by ex-China production
2. 中国出货量与生产仍大幅下滑,部分被中国以外产能替代

The supply chain has tried to fulfill the US orders while keeping the impact of tariffs to a minimum. On an absolute level, as of the week of April 28, US orders of Chinese corporates have been filled with a 35% shipment from China, and 57% from ex-China facilities. No transshipment/reexports were quoted in a meaningful way.
供应链在尽量降低关税影响的同时,努力满足美国订单需求。截至 4 月 28 日当周的数据显示,中国企业承接的美国订单中,35%的货物从中国直接发货,57%来自中国境外生产基地。中转/再出口贸易未出现显著占比。
Corporates' feedback suggests 40% of their products have continued to see high impact on their China shipments to the US (more than a 50% decline, including full termination of shipments), versus 41% as of mid-April. Versus two weeks ago (i.e., mid-April), shipment of nearly 2/3 of the products remained at the same level, and nearly 20% of products are seeing deeper cuts including ESS, EV batteries, valves, selected smartphones, selected PC, selected servers, IoT, container shipping, air freighter, garden machinery, and home textiles.
企业反馈表明,40%的产品对美出口仍受严重影响(降幅超 50%,包括完全停止出货),与四月中旬 41%的比例基本持平。相比两周前(即四月中旬),近三分之二产品的出货量维持原状,近 20%的产品遭遇更深度削减,涉及领域包括储能系统、电动车电池、阀门、特定智能手机、部分个人电脑及服务器、物联网设备、集装箱航运、航空货运、园林机械和家纺产品。
In the near term, ex-China factories (of Chinese corporates) continue to offer a reprieve, despite the impact from tariffs, as a result of significant flexibility in capacity and the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, in SEA and Mexico in particular.
短期内,尽管受到关税影响,中国企业在海外(尤其是东南亚和墨西哥)的工厂仍能提供缓冲,这得益于产能的高度灵活性以及 90 天互惠关税暂停期。
Domestic China production also followed the shipment trend; however, the magnitude was lower with nearly half of the producers seeing no cuts or lesser cuts, and 11% seeing the same or more cuts as the shipment trend.
中国国内生产也遵循了出货趋势;然而影响幅度较小,近半数生产商未减产或减产幅度较小,11%的生产商减产幅度与出货趋势相同或更大。

Exhibit 1: Nearly 40% of products are seeing substantial impact on their China shipments for US orders, as of week of April 28
图表 1:截至 4 月 28 日当周,近 40%产品对美订单的中国出货受到显著影响

1. Nearly 40% of products are seeing substantial impact on their China shipments for US orders, as of week of April 28. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 2: US orders were fulfilled- 35% from China shipments, and 57% from ex-China production, as of week of April 28
图表 2:截至 4 月 28 日当周,美国订单的履行情况——35%来自中国发货,57%来自中国以外生产

2. US orders were fulfilled- 35% from China shipments, and 57% from ex-China production, as of week of April 28. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 3: Impact of US tariffs on the volume of US export orders by product (for China shipment) - as of week of April 28
图表 3:美国关税对按产品分类的美国出口订单量(中国发货部分)的影响——截至 4 月 28 日当周

3. Impact of US tariffs on the volume of US export orders by product (for China shipment) - as of week of April 28. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 4: Ex-China production provides significant supply chain flexibility for many consumer related products
图表 4:中国以外地区的生产为许多消费品提供了显著的供应链灵活性

4. Ex-China production provides significant supply chain flexibility for many consumer related products. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

3. Pre-stocked finished goods inventory in the US provides additional buffer
3. 美国预先储备的成品库存提供了额外缓冲

Nearly half of the corporates were able to comment that their US inventory ranged from 1.5 months to 5 months. The qualitative comments (in the back of the report) are also consistent in suggesting the inventory buffer. Based on the feedback, producers do not plan or are highly prudent in imposing price hikes before depletion of the inventory, to protect the end demand. Among them, direction of the changes were mixed- 38% in destocking, 42% stable, and 8% restocking.
近半数企业能够确认其美国库存周期在 1.5 个月至 5 个月之间。报告附录中的定性评论也一致表明存在库存缓冲。根据反馈,生产商在库存耗尽前暂未计划或极为谨慎地实施涨价,以保护终端需求。其中变化方向不一——38%的企业在去库存,42%保持稳定,8%正在补库。
Domestic inventory mostly remained unchanged according to the feedback.
根据反馈,国内库存基本保持不变。

Exhibit 5: Finished goods inventory in the US quoted by producers and shippers ranged from 1.5 months to 5 months
图表 5:美国生产商和运输商报告的成品库存范围在 1.5 个月至 5 个月之间

5. Finished goods inventory in the US quoted by producers and shippers ranged from 1.5 months to 5 months. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 6: Finished goods inventory was mixed in the direction of changes, as of week of April 28
图表 6:截至 4 月 28 日当周,成品库存变化方向不一

6. Finished goods inventory was mixed in the direction of changes, as of week of April 28. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

4. Pricing discussions suggest expectations for end users to take most of the tariffs, and a potential 30-40% tariff threshold before the global supply chain becomes unmanageable
4. 定价讨论表明,终端用户预计将承担大部分关税,且在全球供应链变得难以管理之前,潜在的关税门槛可能在 30-40%之间

Nearly 60% of the corporates have engaged in price negotiations, and there has been some progress made (limited to tariffs in ex-China regions), versus mid-April. Among them, 6 corporates (i.e. 12%) have settled price negotiations, with end-customers taking the impact from tariffs for selected API, auto glass, batteries (temporally), and US tariffs on ex-China such as industrial parts (25% tariff from Mexico) and furniture (10% tariff).
近 60%的企业已参与价格谈判,且相比四月中旬取得了一定进展(仅限于中国以外地区的关税问题)。其中,6 家企业(即 12%)已完成价格谈判,终端客户在特定领域承担了关税影响,包括原料药、汽车玻璃、电池(暂时性),以及美国对中国以外地区如工业零部件(来自墨西哥的 25%关税)和家具(10%关税)征收的关税。
While clarity on tariffs remains poor, more than half of the corporates expect the end user to take the main responsibility. Selected feedback also suggests that supply chains may be manageable if tariffs are contained below 30-40%, but many suggest margins and end users would not be able to absorb tariffs beyond 30-40%.
尽管关税政策仍不明朗,超半数企业预期终端用户将承担主要责任。部分反馈还表明,若关税控制在 30-40%以下,供应链或可管理,但多数企业认为利润率和终端用户难以承受超过 30-40%的关税。

Exhibit 7: As of week of April 28, 52% of the corporates expect end users would take the main responsibility
图表 7:截至 4 月 28 日当周,52%的企业预计终端用户将承担主要责任

7. As of week of April 28, 52% of the corporates expect end users would take the main responsibility. Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 8: For those who settled price negotiations (mostly outside China) - it was either end user or shared between end user and producers
图表 8:对于已解决价格谈判的企业(主要在中国以外地区)——责任要么由终端用户承担,要么由终端用户与生产商共同分担

8. For those who settled price negotiations (mostly outside China) - it was either end user or shared between end user and producers . Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究

5. Capital expansion plans of corporates suggest more determined trend in building global supply chains
5. 企业资本扩张计划表明,构建全球供应链的趋势更加明确

Nearly 60% of the corporates in the tracker have ex-China production facilities (of which 20% are currently using their ex-China factories to replace China shipments to the US), and 63% are currently expanding or plan to expand/establish overseas capacity. The ongoing capex plans have not been altered despite the tariff uncertainties; however, hesitation seems to have emerged for projects in Mexico and the US due to concerns on uncertainties.
追踪数据显示,近 60%的企业在中国境外设有生产基地(其中 20%目前正利用境外工厂替代对美中国出口),63%的企业正在或计划扩大/新建海外产能。尽管存在关税不确定性,这些资本支出计划仍未改变;然而,由于对不确定性的担忧,墨西哥和美国项目的推进似乎出现了犹豫。

6. Container shipping data has not yet reflected the decline as of end-April
6. 截至 4 月底,集装箱航运数据尚未反映出下降趋势

Per GS China cargo transport tracker, US container imports from China stood at 0.76 mn TEU as of March (+9% yoy change for 1Q25A). Forward-looking estimates for the US monthly container imports (from China and non-China) by the US National Retail Federation imply +10% yoy growth for 1Q25E, but -15% yoy for 2Q25E, and -27% for 3Q25E (no new data released since mid-April). We also include weekly China port throughput volume, which correlates well historically with US container imports from China, with a one-month lead.
根据 GS 中国货运追踪数据,截至 3 月美国从中国的集装箱进口量为 76 万标准箱(2025 年一季度实际值同比增长 9%)。美国全国零售联合会的前瞻性预测显示,2025 年一季度美国月度集装箱进口量(包括中国和非中国来源)预计同比增长 10%,但二季度预计同比下降 15%,三季度下降 27%(自 4 月中旬以来无新数据发布)。我们还纳入了中国港口周度吞吐量数据,该指标历史上与中国对美集装箱出口量高度相关,且具有一个月领先性。

Exhibit 9: US monthly container imports are still in positive growth as of March-25, but total imports are projected to fall by nearly 30% in the coming months
图表 9:截至 3 月 25 日美国月度集装箱进口量仍保持正增长,但预计未来数月总进口量将下降近 30%

9. US monthly container imports are still in positive growth as of March-25, but total imports are projected to fall by nearly 30% in the coming months. Data available on request.
Source: Descartes, US National Retail Federation
来源:笛卡尔、美国全国零售联合会

Exhibit 10: Containership departures from China (to the US,15-day avg) versus arrivals at major SEA ports (from all locations)
图表 10:中国出发至美国的集装箱船离港量(15 日平均)与主要东南亚港口到港量(全来源地)对比

10. Containership departures from China (to the US,15-day avg) versus arrivals at major SEA ports (from all locations) . Data available on request.
Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

China exports to the US: Breakdown by key product and our tracker coverage
中国对美出口:按关键产品分类及我们的追踪覆盖范围

Exhibit 11: Our export tracker covers nearly 70% of China export value by product group to the US
图表 11:我们的出口追踪覆盖了中国对美国近 70%产品类别的出口额

11. Our export tracker covers nearly 70% of China export value by product group to the US. Data available on request.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, US Census Bureau
数据来源:高盛全球投资研究部,美国人口普查局

Exhibit 12: US exports accounted for 0.1-35% of the China production of key products
图表 12:美国出口占中国关键产品产量的 0.1%-35%

12. US exports accounted for 0.1-35% of the China production of key products . Data available on request.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
资料来源:公司数据,高盛全球投资研究
Our work is composed of high-frequency activity snapshots of China's exports to the US, from 48 corporates across over 15 sectors and 39 products, representing nearly 70% of China export value by product group to the US, based on our mapping of 2024A trade data. The tracker covers key consumer discretionary products (footwear OEMs, lifestyle products, toys and pet food, garden machinery, home textile), consumer durables (appliances, furniture, autos and consumer electronics), and manufacturing and commodities products (renewables, batteries, industrial and machinery, chemicals and commodities). We also include container shipping data in the tracker as a reference proxy for US-China trade. The sample corporates had a total of US$720 bn in revenue (2024A) on average with 39% of their revenue coming from the export market, and 9% from the export-to-US market.
我们的研究基于对 48 家企业、覆盖 15 个以上行业及 39 种产品的高频活动快照,这些企业占 2024 年实际贸易数据中按产品组划分的中国对美出口总值近 70%。该追踪报告涵盖主要可选消费品(鞋类代工、生活方式产品、玩具及宠物食品、园艺机械、家纺)、耐用消费品(家电、家具、汽车及消费电子产品)、以及制造业与大宗商品(可再生能源、电池、工业机械、化学品及大宗商品)。我们还纳入了集装箱航运数据作为中美贸易的参考指标。样本企业 2024 年实际平均总收入达 7200 亿美元,其中 39%来自出口市场,9%来自对美出口市场。

What producers told us   生产商反馈要点

New export orders from US, and China shipment
来自美国的新出口订单及中国出货量

  • Orderbook has been received to 3Q25, but uncertainty remains for 4Q25 orders.
    订单簿已排至 2025 年第三季度,但第四季度订单仍存在不确定性。

  • Orderbooks from the US have not changed, nor have there been rush orders. Visibility of 2025 annual orderbook can be seen to extend to July-August. But later Beyond that, much will depend on tariffs on Vietnam - an escalated level will affect consumer spending and impact 4Q25, thus flexibility of producers should be kept.
    来自美国的订单尚未变动,也未出现紧急订单。2025 年度订单能见度可延续至 7-8 月,但此后很大程度上将取决于对越南的关税政策——若关税升级将影响消费者支出并冲击 2025 年第四季度,因此生产商应保持灵活性。

  • Shipments from SEA recovered on the back of the 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff. Communication with customers was only viable after stabilization. In early April, the shipment of orders to the US mostly stopped, and now new orders have gradually come in. But shipment remains short of full year expectations.
    在互惠关税暂停 90 天的背景下,来自东南亚的出货量有所恢复。只有在局势稳定后,与客户的沟通才成为可能。4 月初,对美国的订单发货大多停止,如今新订单已逐渐增加。但出货量仍低于全年预期。

  • Orderbooks for the factories in North America are strong, extending the typical forward visibility from 2-3 months, to 3-4 months. There are still some uncertainties in the export from Cambodia to the US, but production and shipment remains normal.
    北美工厂的订单簿表现强劲,将典型的 2-3 个月前置能见度延长至 3-4 个月。柬埔寨对美出口仍存在一些不确定性,但生产和发货保持正常。

  • There have been no significant changes in orders and demand, and shipments are still being made continuously, all according to customer requirements for timely delivery.
    订单和需求未出现显著变化,出货仍持续进行,均按照客户对及时交付的要求执行。

  • There have been no changes observed in orders.
    未观察到订单变化。

  • The company has not seen advanced or accelerated purchases by US consumers in anticipation of tariff induced price hikes.
    该公司未观察到美国消费者因预期关税导致价格上涨而出现超前或加速采购的情况。

  • Considering the uncertainty of tariffs, US customers slightly increased their orders during the 90-day exemption period.
    考虑到关税政策的不确定性,美国客户在 90 天豁免期内小幅增加了订单量。

  • US orders are suspended. Other regions have broken large-sized orders into small and higher-frequency orders.
    美国订单已暂停。其他地区将大额订单拆分为小额高频订单。

  • Export to Europe might be higher this year. Export to Southeast Asia and South America is on track and there are no major changes.
    今年对欧洲出口可能增加。东南亚和南美出口进展顺利,无明显变化。

  • There are no order cuts, although some customers asked to delay or advance in shipment. Production remained at a normal in pace, given that they are all standard products and we can always find buyers can readily be found even if another someone cancels.
    虽部分客户要求提前或延迟发货,但未出现订单削减。由于均为标准产品且总能找到替代买家,生产节奏保持正常。

  • Normal production and shipment. The customer did not adjust the purchase plan.
    正常生产与发货。客户未调整采购计划。

  • The current orders from the US have increased by 10% on average, compared to before the reciprocal tariff was announced. The shipments of lawn mowers and clothing can be sent domestically and overseas.
    当前来自美国的订单平均增加了 10%,相比互征关税宣布之前。割草机和服装的货品可发往国内及海外。

  • Shipments from China to the US have stopped, versus a 30% drop in mid-April.
    中国至美国的货运已停止,较四月中旬下降 30%。

  • Shipments from China to the US have been are cut off, and have was mostly stopped ~(20%) as of mid of April.
    中国至美国的货运已被切断,截至四月中旬已基本停止(约 20%)。

  • Softening demand induced by IRA uncertainty is the key challenge in the US. US orders further slowed down in the past two weeks, especially in utility scale projects. Moreover, given final anti-dumping (AD)/countervailing duty (CVD) determination for the four ASEAN countries came in higher than the preliminary version, potentially higher product price in the US could further dampen downstream demand.
    由《通胀削减法案》(IRA)不确定性导致的需求疲软是美国市场面临的主要挑战。过去两周美国订单进一步放缓,尤其在公用事业规模项目领域。此外,鉴于对四个东盟国家的最终反倾销(AD)/反补贴税(CVD)裁定高于初裁版本,美国市场产品价格可能上涨,或将进一步抑制下游需求。

  • Solid demand in the US market, with new orders in thousands of units seen from customers. However, Chinese production for the US orders has stopped, and has been fully replaced by products from other regions, with high utilization rate. Orderbook is solid into July, and 2Q shipment to Korea, UK, Australia, India, Brazil and Middle East was solid.
    美国市场需求稳健,客户新订单达数千台。然而,面向美国订单的中国生产已停止,并完全被其他地区产品替代,且产能利用率高。订单簿稳固延续至七月,第二季度对韩国、英国、澳大利亚、印度、巴西和中东的出货表现强劲。

  • Tariffs have had limited impact on the company YTD. Exports to North America have declined slightly, but more driven by the nature of the demand rather than tariffs. And most of the US orders were produced in facilities in Mexico. Alternate supplies are challenging to procure, most of these products are difficult to replace in the short term, and if any, it will still be among Chinese producers.
    迄今为止关税对公司影响有限。对北美出口量小幅下滑,但更多由需求特性驱动而非关税因素。大部分美国订单由墨西哥工厂生产。替代供应难以获取,这些产品短期内大多难以被取代,即便有替代,仍将主要来自中国生产商。

  • The direct orders for commercial HVAC components from China to the US have been completely suspended, as customers are considering supply chain changes. Production of commercial HVAC in China has not been suspended — although there are no new orders from the US, the production can still supply other regions. Residential HVAC components are currently supplied to the US from Vietnam, and there has been no change so far, as per our onshore tariff impact report.
    中国对美国商用暖通空调(HVAC)部件的直接订单已完全暂停,客户正在考虑供应链调整。中国商用暖通空调的生产并未停止——尽管没有来自美国的新订单,但现有产能仍可供应其他地区。家用暖通空调部件目前从越南供应至美国,根据我们的在岸关税影响报告,目前暂无变化。

  • Orders for machinery had delays in the first week of April, given the uncertainty. But recovery from the emerging markets started in the second week and continued in the 3rd week.
    由于不确定性,4 月第一周的机械订单出现延迟。但从第二周开始新兴市场出现复苏,并在第三周持续。

  • There has been no change in US orders; the currently imposed tariff is not 145%, but lower, because the reciprocal tariffs only apply to a specific list of goods.
    美国订单未发生变动;当前实施的关税并非 145%,而是更低,因为互征关税仅适用于特定商品清单。

  • For the US market, the company is basically either the sole supplier or a critical supplier, making short-term replacement difficult.
    对于美国市场而言,该公司基本是独家供应商或关键供应商,短期内难以被替代。

  • Producers mainly cooperate with small brands, which can export and change a label and then re-export to the US.
    生产商主要与小品牌合作,这些品牌可通过更换标签后重新出口至美国。

  • Producers now take orders from the US as normal, versus suspending the order two weeks ago. The impact on shipments was about 20-50% but gradually recovering. Currently in normal production.
    生产商目前正常接收美国订单,而两周前曾暂停接单。对出货量的影响约为 20%-50%,但正逐步恢复。目前处于正常生产状态。

  • Transpacific routes: In mid-April, a sequential decline of 12-13% in container volumes on Transpacific routes (vs. Mar-2025) was observed, and it deepened to 20% in late week of April 21, and may further deepen to 25-30% in May. The container volume from SEA to US is stable. Company believes the decline in transpacific routes is mainly due to the sharp drop in cargo volume departing from China, while cargo volume departing from Southeast Asia is relatively stable. There is some speculation that there is re-export trade involved but it cannot be separated.
    跨太平洋航线:4 月中旬观察到跨太平洋航线集装箱量环比(较 2025 年 3 月)下降 12-13%,到 4 月 21 日当周降幅扩大至 20%,5 月可能进一步加深至 25-30%。东南亚至美国的箱量保持稳定。公司认为跨太平洋航线下降主要源于中国出发货量骤降,而东南亚始发货量相对平稳。市场猜测存在转口贸易因素但无法拆分。

  • The company observed container volume increased on China-to-Southeast Asia routes in April vs. March and sees further upside to cargo volumes within the 90-day window of reciprocal tariff delay. Among Southeast Asia routes, Thailand and Vietnam have seen more significant volume growth. Solar-related products have seen larger volume declines, while household goods remain stable.
    公司观察到 4 月中国至东南亚航线箱量较 3 月上升,且在 90 天互惠关税延迟窗口期内货量仍有上行空间。东南亚航线中泰国、越南货量增长较显著。太阳能相关产品货量降幅较大,家居用品保持稳定。

  • It is expected that De minimis (accounts for 30-40% of US routes cargo) could decline by 45-50% in May after the removal of De minimis on Chinese products takes effect from May 2nd.
    预计最低限度豁免(占美国航线货量 30-40%)自 5 月 2 日取消中国产品免税待遇后,5 月可能下降 45-50%。

Consumer light industry products
轻工消费品

Consumer electronics and durables
消费电子及耐用品

Manufacturing products, commodity and logistics
制造业产品、大宗商品与物流

Ex-China supply chain  中国以外供应链

  • High cost in Italy, infrastructure in South America, all implies Southeast Asia is still the best choice to relocate to.
    意大利的高成本、南美的基础设施问题,均表明东南亚仍是迁移的最佳选择。

  • Africa is not suitable for the company's business. The company will maintain the production capacity layout in Southeast Asian countries. Although some places seem to have lower tariffs, labor costs are higher and tariffs are also changing.
    非洲不适合该公司的业务。公司将维持东南亚国家的产能布局。尽管某些地区看似关税较低,但人力成本更高且关税政策也在变化。

  • The direct purchase mix in the US has now reached 40%, 10% higher than at the end of 2024.
    目前美国的直采比例已达 40%,较 2024 年底高出 10 个百分点。

  • Snacks are still made by Chinese companies, although the locations are China or Southeast Asia, and won't be replaced in the short term.
    零食仍由中国企业生产,尽管生产地设在中国或东南亚,短期内不会被替代。

  • Production would be mainly in SEA, including Thailand with a lower tax rate and has no significant impact on production gross profit margin.
    生产将主要集中在东南亚地区,包括泰国,其税率较低且对生产毛利率无显著影响。

  • The overseas factories were setup 10 years ago, and shipment can be done from China and overseas.
    海外工厂设立于 10 年前,可从中国及海外基地进行发货。

  • No changes on supply chain (as no alternative places to produce).
    供应链无变化(因无替代生产地)。

Consumer light industry products
消费轻工业产品

  • Views on tariff have marginally improved in the past week. The order shift to Mexico and Thailand accelerated in the past week - production and shipment from Mexico and Thailand can meet 90% of the total US orders, while the remaining 10% low margin segment stayed in China, which may be given up under the current tariff rate.
    过去一周对关税的看法略有改善。订单向墨西哥和泰国的转移加速——来自这两地的生产和运输能满足美国订单总量的 90%,而剩余 10%低利润部分仍留在中国,在当前关税税率下可能被放弃。

  • To shift domestic capacity from US export to Europe and ASEAN. Europe will be a major destination given its size is large and still growing.
    将国内产能从对美出口转向欧洲和东盟。鉴于欧洲市场规模庞大且持续增长,将成为主要目的地。

  • Incremental adjustment on company's supply chain since mid April - trying to explore non-US markets, orders from other regions are smaller in size but higher frequency which implies higher flexibility requirements from customers under uncertainties.
    自四月中旬起对公司供应链进行渐进调整——尝试开拓非美市场,其他地区订单规模较小但频次更高,意味着客户在不确定性下对灵活性要求提升。

  • The US is far behind China in this industry, so it is difficult to find local competitors, and no alternative supplies in the short term.
    美国在该行业远落后于中国,短期内难以找到本土竞争对手,也无替代供应来源。

  • A 45% tariff or below can still be manageable, including shifting the assembly to South Korea and Vietnam, at the expense of 20% gross margin.
    45%或以下的关税仍可承受,包括将组装环节转移至韩国和越南,代价是牺牲 20%的毛利率。

Consumer electronics and durables
消费电子及耐用品

  • No consideration to adjusting the supply chain.
    未考虑调整供应链。

  • Mexico can only produce some smaller models for now because the supply chain there is not mature enough; production can be shifted to the India factory later.
    目前墨西哥只能生产部分小型型号,因为当地供应链尚不成熟;后续生产可转移至印度工厂。

  • AD/CVD rate is mild in Malaysia, so there is shipment from Malaysia to USA.
    马来西亚的 AD/CVD 税率较低,因此有从马来西亚到美国的货物运输。

  • There is an observation that production has shifted to Asean. Hotels are full and difficult to book in Vietnam. The sales location will be more global.
    有观察发现生产已转移至东盟地区。越南的酒店爆满且预订困难。销售地点将更加全球化。

Manufacturing products, commodity and logistics
制造产品、大宗商品及物流

Inventory buffers  库存缓冲

  • There were 3 months of inventory in the US when the tariff hike was introduced; the company plans to ship some products to bonded warehouses and wait for more clarity on tariff.
    美国在加征关税时有 3 个月的库存;公司计划将部分产品运至保税仓库,等待关税政策进一步明朗。

  • At least 2 months of inventory in US customers' end.
    美国客户终端至少有 2 个月的库存。

  • The impact on raw materials is limited. Some raw materials for the biological section are imported from the USA, but there is currently some inventory on hand. There are few overseas purchases for the chemical section.
    对原材料的影响有限。生物板块部分原材料从美国进口,但目前手头有一定库存。化工板块海外采购较少。

Consumer light industry products
消费品轻工业产品

  • There is no detailed US inventory data but considering that the company has almost shipped half of last year's US sales YTD, it is reasonable to assume US inventory has been rising.
    暂无详细的美国库存数据,但考虑到公司今年迄今已发货量接近去年美国销量的一半,合理推测美国库存正在上升。

  • US customers are mainly selling inventory first.
    美国客户当前主要采取优先去库存策略。

Consumer electronics and durables
消费电子与耐用消费品

  • Shipment to the US YTD reached 2/3 of the full year target volume as of 1Q25, thus can take a pause. US inventory can sustain another 3 months.
    截至 2025 年一季度,对美出货量已达全年目标量的三分之二,因此可暂缓发货。美国现有库存可再维持 3 个月。

  • In the overseas, the company has a warehouse in the EU, while the company does not have inventory in the US given the company follows FOB delivery.
    海外业务方面,公司在欧盟设有仓库,但因采用 FOB 交货方式,故在美国本土未持有库存。

  • Understands that some ESS assemblers have some inventory in the US before the tariff escalation.
    了解到部分 ESS 组装商在美国有关税上调前的库存。

  • Current inventory could support sales until September. The company has suspended the shipment and customs clearance to US since April.
    现有库存可支撑销售至 9 月。公司自 4 月起已暂停对美发货及清关。

  • Data from cross-border E-Commerce fair: inventory days are 45 days for furniture and appliances, 60 days for apparel and 38 days for lifestyle products.
    跨境电商交易会数据显示:家具家电类库存天数为 45 天,服装类 60 天,生活用品类 38 天。

  • Average inventory is around 1-2 months, and restocking may start in May.
    平均库存周期约 1-2 个月,补货可能于 5 月启动。

Manufacturing products, commodity and logistics
制造业产品、大宗商品与物流

Pricing discussion and customers
定价讨论与客户关系

  • Brands have not asked OEMs to bear the tariffs. Brands will reduce costs in raw materials and design. Low possibility for OEMs to absorb tariff costs for brands, especially for high-end fashion/luxury who have strong pricing power.
    品牌方并未要求代工厂承担关税。品牌将通过原材料和设计环节降低成本。代工厂为品牌承担关税成本的可能性较低,尤其是对拥有强定价权的高端时尚/奢侈品牌而言。

  • If the final tariff in Southeast Asia is set at 20%, it will not have much impact. But may have some impact if the tariff increase is 30%. Price increase will have a greater impact on sales. The company does not rule out the possibility to share a bit of the tariff burden in exchange for better orderbooks.
    若东南亚最终关税定为 20%,则影响不大。但若关税上调至 30%可能产生一定影响。涨价对销售的影响更为显著。公司不排除分担少量关税以换取更佳订单的可能性。

  • There have been no price hikes but the next step may increase the price of products from China by 20-40% (fully transmitted).
    目前尚未提价,但下一步可能将中国产品价格提高 20%-40%(完全传导)。

  • The orders shipped from China are subject to a 200% tariff increase, and large US supermarkets have not asked producers to bear them.
    从中国发货的订单面临 200%的关税增幅,而美国大型超市并未要求生产商承担这部分成本。

  • Wishes that customers will bear 100% of the tariff.
    希望客户承担 100%的关税。

  • Plans to bear all export tariffs and will not pass them on to downstream customers for the time being. It will make adjustments after observing what its competitors do.
    计划承担全部出口关税,暂时不会转嫁给下游客户。将观察竞争对手动向后再做调整。

  • Reached an agreement that customers will bear the tariff.
    已达成协议由客户承担关税。

  • The tariff is undertaken by its US partner.
    关税由其美国合作伙伴承担。

Consumer light industry products
消费品轻工业产品

  • Will not consider a price hike until the current inventory depletes, and will be highly prudent in future price hikes.
    在现有库存消化完毕前不会考虑提价,未来提价将极为谨慎。

  • After the 10% tariff was added, the negotiations with clients have mostly settled; customers took most of it and may also pass on some to end consumers. The company will also negotiate on sharing the additional costs with supply chain companies.
    加征 10%关税后,与客户的谈判已基本落定;客户承担了大部分,可能也会将部分转嫁给终端消费者。公司还将与供应链企业协商分摊额外成本。

  • There is no discussion of order details, and US customers do not want to take tariffs themselves.
    未讨论订单细节,且美国客户不愿自行承担关税。

  • Tariff is paid by customers; not sure about customers' pricing strategy.
    关税由客户承担;不确定客户的定价策略。

  • For aftermarket products, it is easier to pass through the tariff burden, which was already confirmed to be taken by customers. OEM customers settle with the original price, and the tariff costs are reimbursed separately according to the proportion passed through to customers. There is no absolute proportion. It varies from period to period and from customer to customer. In general, most of the tariff burden can be passed through, definitely more than 50%.
    对于售后市场产品,更容易转嫁关税负担,这一点已确认由客户承担。OEM 客户按原价结算,关税成本根据转嫁给客户的比例单独报销。没有绝对的比例,因时期和客户而异。总的来说,大部分关税负担可以转嫁,肯定超过 50%。

Consumer electronics and durables
消费电子和耐用品

  • For Chinese producers - there are too many extra costs for Chinese companies. In 4Q25, the 201 exemptions will be cancelled and the AD/CVD will be added. In addition, there are additional shipping charges for China in logistics. All these add up to a very high extra cost. The producers are unwilling to supply at a loss thus no shipment.
    对于中国生产商来说,中国企业面临太多额外成本。2025 年第四季度,201 条款豁免将被取消,并加征反倾销/反补贴税。此外,物流方面对中国还有额外的运输费用。所有这些加起来是一笔非常高的额外成本。生产商不愿亏本供货,因此没有出货。

  • US OEM customers were willing to pay the tariff for a period of time, then requested further negotiation afterwards.
    美国原始设备制造商客户一度愿意承担关税,但随后要求进一步协商。

  • Since the supply to the US is mostly indirectly via downstream assemblers, it is not negotiating with US customers. But current tariff levels are not be affordable for producers nor customers.
    由于对美供应主要通过下游组装商间接进行,因此并未与美国客户进行谈判。但当前关税水平对生产商和客户而言都难以承受。

  • If tariff is 50-80%, it would still be 40% if half of the tariff is shared by OEM, versus OEM margin of 15-20% - does this mean the OEM is to subsidize the US?
    如果关税为 50-80%,而 OEM 承担一半关税后仍为 40%,对比 OEM 的 15-20%利润率——这是否意味着 OEM 要补贴美国?

  • Will not negotiate the price with customers if under 145% tariff scheme. Customers were willing to share the 34% tariff. Prices remained unchanged, and will follow the market and costs going forward. Expects the industry ASP to hike in the next one or two months, led by local OEMs.
    若适用 145%关税方案,将不与客户协商价格。客户曾愿意分担 34%的关税。价格维持不变,未来将随市场和成本动态调整。预计未来一两个月内行业平均售价将上涨,由本土 OEM 厂商主导。

  • The additional tariffs on the components produced in Vietnam are jointly borne by the company and the customers.
    对越南产组件加征的关税由公司与客户共同承担。

  • A 25% tariff was added to products supplied from Mexico to the US, but after negotiation, it was agreed that customers would bear this cost.
    从墨西哥供应至美国的产品被加征 25%关税,但经协商后达成一致由客户承担这部分成本。

  • As for the 145% tariff, there is no point in discussing tariff-sharing — the company has always used FOB terms for those shipments, with customers picking up goods at Shanghai Port, so the tariffs are not related to the company.
    关于 145%关税,讨论分摊并无意义——公司始终采用 FOB 条款发货,客户在上海港自提货物,因此关税与公司无关。

Manufacturing products, commodity and logistics
制造业产品、大宗商品及物流

  • Prices on Southeast Asian routes also remain high as cargo volumes are growing.
    东南亚航线价格因货运量增长而持续居高不下。

  • Air freight prices to the US have fallen, while sea freight prices to Southeast Asia have increased steadily.
    美国空运价格已下降,而东南亚海运价格则稳步上涨。

Future Capex and capital allocation
未来资本支出与资本配置

  • In the next 3-5 years, stay focused on accelerating investments in Indonesia driven by customers' demand, and some peers are planning for India as well. South America lacks enough infrastructure for substantial capacity expansion, while Europe production is expensive at this stage.
    未来 3-5 年,重点持续加速印尼投资以满足客户需求,部分同行也正布局印度市场。南美因基础设施不足难以大幅扩产,而欧洲现阶段生产成本较高。

  • Capacity expansion plan will be on track for SEA factory expansions.
    东南亚工厂扩产计划将按既定进度推进。

  • Will continue to diversify the sourcing and end market presence globally.
    将持续推进全球采购与终端市场布局的多元化。

  • Temporary capacity to add in Vietnam; LT: no major change.
    越南将增设临时产能;长期规划暂无重大调整。

  • Wait and see, still Thailand in the long-term.
    观望中,长期仍看好泰国市场。

  • Working to resolve supply chain bottleneck and increase maximum capacity; continue to ramp up capacity in North America; LT: no new plans as of now.
    正努力解决供应链瓶颈并提升最大产能;继续在北美地区扩大产能;长期规划:目前暂无新计划。

  • Production lines are being established in Brazil and the USA, and it is estimated that supplies from Brazil can commence in the fourth quarter.
    生产线正在巴西和美国建立,预计来自巴西的供应可以在第四季度开始。

  • More shift through capacity additions in overseas factories, such as Vietnam, the Middle East, and other places.
    通过增加越南、中东等海外工厂的产能实现更多生产转移。

Consumer light industry products
消费品轻工业

  • We are not sure if the current 10% tariff for Vietnam will remain the same in the future. Until we see more tariff visibility, we are going to continue ramping up Vietnam capacity and keep exploring other viable solutions to manage the uncertainties.
    我们不确定越南当前 10%的关税未来是否维持不变。在关税政策更明朗之前,我们将继续提升越南产能,并持续探索其他可行方案以应对不确定性。

  • There is no change in Capex for the time being. Senior executives have recently been on a business trip overseas. New Capex is still being explored, but it is not expected to increase significantly.
    目前资本支出暂无变化。高管近期已赴海外出差,新资本支出仍在探索中,但预计不会大幅增加。

  • Cautious about Capex plan in the future. It looks like Mexico is better than Thailand for now. However, we do not know if the current freetrade agreement among Mexico, Canada and US will continue in the future. In this regard, we cannot say for sure that we will ramp up investment in Mexico in the future.
    对未来资本支出计划持谨慎态度。目前看来,墨西哥比泰国更具优势。然而,我们无法确定当前墨西哥、加拿大和美国之间的自由贸易协定未来是否会持续。因此,不能断言未来将增加在墨西哥的投资。

  • No change on capacity expansion plan, continue to expand Capex investment in US, SEA and India.
    产能扩张计划不变,继续增加在美国、东南亚和印度的资本支出投资。

  • Still targets to expand Vietnam capacity to cover US market PC demand (still targets to complete by Sep-Q 2025). In the long term, will continue to diversify their production sites, potentially expand in both Mexico and India.
    仍计划扩大越南产能以满足美国市场个人电脑需求(目标仍为 2025 年第三季度前完成)。长期来看,将继续分散生产基地,可能同时在墨西哥和印度进行扩张。

  • Capacity expansion is based on customers’ request; so far, no change on capacity expansion plan - still targets to expand capacity in Mexico in 2025E.
    产能扩张基于客户需求;目前扩张计划无变更——仍目标在 2025 年扩大墨西哥产能。

Consumer electronics and durables
消费电子及耐用品

  • Will speed up its Malaysia factory, if necessary. Malaysia is subject to 25% tariff, which is relatively low, and its customers in the future will not be limited to North America, but also include Europe and Africa. Even if demand in the United States is halved, it can be used to meet the demand in other regions.
    必要时将加速马来西亚工厂建设。马来西亚适用 25%的关税税率相对较低,未来其客户不仅限于北美,还将覆盖欧洲和非洲。即使美国需求减半,也可用于满足其他地区的需求。

  • A team is visiting Indonesia today to explore leasing a factory, with plans to start production there as early as 2025.
    今日有团队正在印尼考察租赁工厂事宜,计划最早于 2025 年启动当地生产。

  • Expanding inverter capacity in Thailand and India and targets to establish overseas ESS production base by end-2025. At least 2-3 years for US to find proper substitutes for Chinese-produced BESS.
    正扩大泰国和印度的逆变器产能,并计划在 2025 年底前建立海外储能系统生产基地。美国至少需要 2-3 年才能找到合适的中国产电池储能系统替代品。

  • Low intention to expand US capacity given weaker demand outlook.
    鉴于需求前景疲软,扩大美国产能的意愿较低。

  • Preliminary plan on US Cell capacity but intend to wait for more policy certainty.
    关于美国电池产能的初步计划,但打算等待更多政策确定性。

  • If Sino-US relations continue to deteriorate, it will be unsafe to build factories anywhere. Plan A could be to completely give up the US market and make up for it through other markets, andlease and increase local after-sales and spare parts services. Plan B could be to build production capacity in the US, find some large-volume and simple models to assemble in the United States, and still make high-profit products in China, and make a decision after the tariff policy stabilizes; the US team is contacting the government to apply for a tariff exemption. No consideration in building factories outside the United States (poor economic efficiency, imperfect industrial chain with compliance risks, difficult to manage quality control costs, policy risks, and it is safer to build locally).
    若中美关系持续恶化,在任何地方建厂都将不安全。方案 A 可能是完全放弃美国市场,通过其他市场弥补,并增加本地售后和备件服务。方案 B 可能是在美国建设产能,选择一些量大且简单的车型在美国组装,高利润产品仍在中国生产,待关税政策稳定后再做决定;美国团队正联系政府申请关税豁免。不考虑在美国以外建厂(经济效益差、产业链不完善伴随合规风险、质量控制成本高、政策风险,本地建厂更安全)。

  • Construction of the factory in Thailand has been suspended. The company is still considering whether to expand capacity in Vietnam or Mexico.
    泰国工厂建设已暂停。公司仍在考虑是否在越南或墨西哥扩大产能。

  • At the same time, overseas production will soon be ramped up, so customers' pain period will not be too long. The Thailand plant is mainly aimed at Southeast Asia and European markets and does not change the company's major investment strategies.
    与此同时,海外生产即将提速,因此客户的困难期不会持续太久。泰国工厂主要面向东南亚和欧洲市场,不会改变公司的主要投资策略。

Manufacturing products, commodity and logistics
制造业产品、商品及物流

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