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European elections 2024 2024 年欧洲大选

Who will form the next European parliament?
谁将组成下一届欧洲议会?

Last updated on June 10th 2024
最后更新于 2024 年 6 月 10 日

Projected results, seats
预计结果,席位

2024

Left35Greens53S&D135Renew83New50NI45EPP191ECR71ID57 Left-wingCentristRight-wingUnaffiliated

2019

Editor’s note (10:35pm GMT, June 9th 2024): This page has been updated with the provisional results of the election.
编者按(格林尼治标准时间 2024 年 6 月 9 日晚 10:35):本页已根据选举的临时结果进行了更新。
After four days of voting, the EU has published a first projection of the results for its election of a new European Parliament. As polls predicted, the centre-right group known as the European People’s Party, or EPP, is once again the largest; it is projected to win 191 seats. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) looks set to win about 135 seats. But the hard right has gained ground in some countries.
经过四天的投票,欧盟公布了新一届欧洲议会选举的首次预测结果。正如民意调查所预测的那样,中右翼的欧洲人民党(EPP)再次成为最大的党派,预计将赢得 191 个席位。中左翼的社会党与民主党进步联盟(S&D)预计将赢得约 135 个席位。但在一些国家,强硬右翼势力已占据上风。
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you can find a breakdown of the results, analysis of what’s at stake and short guides to each group in the Parliament. And if you are interested in contests elsewhere, see our Trump/Biden poll tracker, our British election tracker and more at our election tracker hub.
经济学人》正在跟踪报道此次竞选。在这里,您可以找到结果明细、利害关系分析以及议会中各团体的简短指南。如果您对其他地方的选举感兴趣,请访问我们的选举跟踪中心,查看我们的特朗普/拜登民调跟踪、英国选举跟踪以及更多内容。
The hard-right Identity & Democracy (ID) group is projected to win 57 seats. It failed to pull ahead of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a group of soft Eurosceptics. Nor did it beat and replace the liberal Renew Europe group, who remain as the third-biggest force in parliament. That was partly because the ID group ejected one of its biggest members, Alternative for Germany (AfD), at the end of May. Maximilian Krah, one of the AfD’s candidates, had suggested that not all officers in Nazi Germany were war criminals. In 2016, the AfD was expelled by the ECR, who have also gained seats and come fourth in this election.
强硬右翼的认同与民主党(ID)预计将赢得 57 个席位。该党派未能超过欧洲保守派和改革派(ECR),后者是一个由软欧洲怀疑论者组成的党派。它也没有击败并取代自由派的 "欧洲复兴"(Renew Europe)党团,后者仍是议会中的第三大势力。其部分原因是,ID 集团在 5 月底将其最大的成员之一--德国另类选择党(AfD)驱逐出了议会。AfD的候选人之一马克西米利安-克拉(Maximilian Krah)曾提出,纳粹德国的军官并非都是战犯。2016 年,AfD 被 ECR 驱逐,而 ECR 在本次选举中也获得了席位,排名第四。
The biggest winner of the night was Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, her hard-right party, which is part of the ID group. National Rally was projected to win 30 seats whereas President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition secured just 14. On Sunday evening Mr Macron announced he would dissolve the French national assembly and called legislative elections, to take place on June 30th and July 7th.
当晚最大的赢家是玛琳娜-勒庞和她的强硬右翼党派--隶属于 ID 集团的全国集会党(National Rally)。国民联盟党预计将赢得 30 个席位,而埃马纽埃尔-马克龙总统的联盟党仅获得 14 个席位。周日晚间,马克龙宣布将解散法国国民议会,并将于 6 月 30 日和 7 月 7 日举行立法选举。
On Monday, the jockeying for the top jobs will commence. Ursula von der Leyen, the current head of the Commission and lead candidate of the EPP, will need 361 votes to be re-elected. The current projections suggest the centrist parties (EPP, S&D and Renew) will win 409 seats. A secret ballot will take place in July or September.
下周一,最高职位的角逐将拉开帷幕。乌苏拉-冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)是现任委员会主席,也是欧洲进步党的主要候选人,她需要 361 票才能再次当选。根据目前的预测,中间派政党(人民党、社民党和革新党)将赢得 409 个席位。无记名投票将于 7 月或 9 月举行。
Read more about what powers the European Parliament holds and our analysis of Europe’s shift to the right. Scroll down to see past polls and our guides to each group in Parliament.
阅读更多有关欧洲议会拥有哪些权力的信息,以及我们对欧洲向右转的分析。向下滚动,查看过去的民意调查和我们对议会中每个小组的介绍。

Voting intention, % 投票意向,%

Left 左侧
Right 
Unaffiliated 无隶属关系
Jan2024FebMarAprMayJun 051015202530 Jun 9th10 ECR 22 EPP 6 Greens/EFA 9 ID 7 NI 10 Renew Europe 16 S&D 6 The Left 14 New parties
Dozens of parties, both national and European, are represented in the Parliament, but most belong to one of seven political groups. They work on policies ranging from aid for Ukraine to data-protection laws and cutting the EU’s carbon emissions.
议会中有数十个国家党派和欧洲党派的代表,但大多数属于七个政治团体之一。他们致力于制定从援助乌克兰到数据保护法和削减欧盟碳排放量等各种政策。
Left 左侧
Right 
Unaffiliated 无隶属关系

France 法国

JFMAMJ 010203040% Jun 6th6 ECR 7 EPP 6 Greens 33 ID 15 Renew 14 S&D 12 Left 7 New

Germany 德国

JFMAMJ 010203040% Jun 5th30 EPP 14 Greens 16 NI 6 Renew 15 S&D 9 Left 11 New

Italy 意大利

JFMAM 010203040% May 22nd27 ECR 9 EPP 9 ID 15 NI 9 Renew 21 S&D 2 Left 8 New

Spain 西班牙

JFMAM 010203040% May 28th11 ECR 36 EPP 2 NI 2 Renew 31 S&D 4 Left 14 New
At the previous election in 2019, liberals also feared a shift to the right. But although the number of right-wing MEPs grew, so did the tally of those belonging to the most pro-EU parties. Since then, however, the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and renewed worries about immigration have led to a surge in support for right-wingers in some member states. In 2022 Italy voted a hard-right party into office, and in 2023 the party of Geert Wilders, an anti-Muslim populist, won the Dutch election (though he has not been able to form a government). The European polls show that parties on the fringes are gaining ground compared with 2019.
在 2019 年的上一次选举中,自由派也担心会出现右倾。不过,尽管右翼欧洲议会议员的人数有所增加,但属于最亲欧盟政党的议员人数也有所增加。然而,自那以后,"covid-19 "大流行病的影响、乌克兰和中东的战争以及对移民问题的重新担忧,导致一些成员国右翼分子的支持率激增。2022 年,意大利投票选举一个强硬右翼政党上台,2023 年,反穆斯林民粹主义者 Geert Wilders 的政党赢得了荷兰大选(尽管他未能组建政府)。欧洲民调显示,与 2019 年相比,边缘政党的支持率正在上升。
What may give centrists hope is that right-wing groups remain deeply divided—many hard-right parties are “Non-Inscrits”, or non-attached, meaning that they have decided not to join a parliamentary group. And a large number of new parties or coalitions have not yet announced which group they might join if their candidates are elected.
可能会给中间派带来希望的是,右翼团体仍然存在严重分歧--许多强硬右翼党派都是 "Non-Inscrits",即非归属党派,这意味着它们决定不加入某个议会党团。而许多新政党或联盟尚未宣布,如果他们的候选人当选,他们可能会加入哪个党派。

Share of seats in European Parliament, %

100

Left

Greens

Left-wing

75

S&D

Renew

Centrist

50

NI

EPP

25

Right-wing

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

Share of seats in European Parliament, %

100

Left

Greens

75

S&D

Renew

50

NI

EPP

25

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

Share of seats in European Parliament, %
欧洲议会席位所占比例,%

100

Left 左侧

Greens 绿色

Left-wing 左翼

75

S&D

Renew 更新

Centrist 中间派

50

NI

EPP

25

Right-wing 右翼

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

As well as making laws and deciding on the EU’s budget (along with the EU’s 27 member states and the European Commission), the Parliament plays a role in who gets the EU’s plum jobs. Each group can nominate a “Spitzenkandidat”, or lead candidate for president of the European Commission. Although who gets the post is ultimately decided by the EU’s 27 national leaders, the Parliament must then approve their choice. Ursula von der Leyen, the current president, won in 2019 without being the top candidate of any group, prompting questions over whether the Spitzenkandidat system, introduced in 2014, will endure.
除了制定法律和决定欧盟预算(与欧盟 27 个成员国和欧盟委员会一起)外,议会还对谁能获得欧盟的重要职位发挥作用。每个集团都可以提名一位 "Spitzenkandidat",即欧盟委员会主席的主要候选人。虽然最终由欧盟 27 个国家的领导人决定由谁担任这一职位,但议会必须批准他们的选择。现任主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)在 2019 年获胜时没有成为任何集团的头号候选人,这引发了人们对 2014 年推出的 "Spitzenkidat "制度是否会持续下去的疑问。

Google search interest, Jan 1st-June 3rd 2024
谷歌搜索兴趣,2024 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 3 日

Least 最少
Most 大多数

Conflicts 冲突

EstoniaLatvia

Cost of living 生活费用

Ger.Italy

Environment 环境

SpainDen.

Retirement 退休

FranceRom.
What matters most to voters? We looked at what people across the EU are searching for to get a sense of which issues may prove decisive. Search-traffic data from Google reveal vast geographical differences. Many Europeans worry about conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and in Gaza. People in Estonia and Latvia, close to Russia, have searched for this the most. Keywords relating to the cost of living, such as “inflation”, as well as “energy prices”, “food prices” and “mortgages”, are searched particularly often in Germany and Italy. The environment, including terms such as “climate change”, is a hot topic on the continent’s fringes: it’s most often searched for in Malta and it also seems popular in countries with long coastlines such as Portugal, Spain and Denmark. Searches related to retirement policies are high in Romania—its government promised a rise in pensions for 2024—and in France, where the pension age was raised from 62 to 64 last year.
什么对选民最重要?我们研究了欧盟各国人民正在搜索的内容,以了解哪些问题可能具有决定性意义。谷歌的搜索流量数据显示出巨大的地域差异。许多欧洲人担心乌克兰和加沙战争等冲突。在靠近俄罗斯的爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚,人们对此的搜索最多。与生活成本相关的关键词,如 "通货膨胀",以及 "能源价格"、"食品价格 "和 "抵押贷款",在德国和意大利的搜索频率尤其高。环境,包括 "气候变化 "等词汇,是欧洲大陆边缘地区的热门话题:马耳他的搜索频率最高,在葡萄牙、西班牙和丹麦等海岸线较长的国家也很流行。在罗马尼亚,与退休政策相关的搜索量很高--该国政府承诺在 2024 年提高养老金;在法国,去年养老金领取年龄从 62 岁提高到 64 岁。

EPP

Centre-right 中右翼

The European People’s Party Group (EPP) is currently the largest in the Parliament and has won every election since 1999. (Somewhat confusingly the group’s European sister party is also called the European People’s Party.) Its chair is Manfred Weber of Germany’s conservative Christian Social Union, the Bavarian ally of the Christian Democrats. EPP members have many of the EU’s big jobs: Roberta Metsola, a Maltese MEP, is president of the Parliament. And the EPP party’s “Spitzenkandidat”, or lead candidate for president of the European Commission, is Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent.
欧洲人民党(EPP)目前是议会中最大的党派,自 1999 年以来赢得了历届选举。(有点令人困惑的是,该党团的欧洲姊妹党也叫欧洲人民党)。该党主席是德国保守派基督教社会联盟的曼弗雷德-韦伯(Manfred Weber),他是基督教民主党在巴伐利亚州的盟友。欧洲人民党成员担任着欧盟的许多重要职位:马耳他议员罗伯塔-梅索拉是议会主席。欧洲进步党的 "Spitzenkandidat"(即欧盟委员会主席的主要候选人)是现任主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)。

S&D

Centre-left 中左

The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has existed since 1953, albeit under several different names. Notable parties include Spain’s Socialist Workers’ Party, Germany’s Social Democrats and Italy’s Democratic Party. Its president is Iratxe García from Spain, and its Party of European Socialists has endorsed Nicolas Schmit, a Luxembourgish politician and current EU commissioner for jobs and social rights, as its Sptizenkandidat.
社会党与民主党进步联盟(S&D)自 1953 年以来就一直存在,尽管曾用过几个不同的名称。著名的党派包括西班牙的社会主义工人党、德国的社会民主党和意大利的民主党。该党主席是来自西班牙的伊拉克斯-加西亚(Iratxe García),其下属的欧洲社会党支持卢森堡政治家、现任欧盟就业和社会权利专员尼古拉-施密特(Nicolas Schmit)作为该党的候选人。

Renew Europe 更新欧洲

Centrist 中间派

Renew Europe (RE) is the big tent for all liberal parties in the European Parliament. Previously called Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, it is a staunchly pro-EU outfit. RE is chaired by Valérie Hayer, a French MEP and a member of Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. Ms Hayer is also the liberals’ joint Spitzenkandidat, alongside Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a German, and Sandro Gozi, an Italian.
复兴欧洲(RE)是欧洲议会中所有自由党的大帐篷。该组织以前称为欧洲自由民主联盟集团,是一个坚定的亲欧盟组织。欧洲自由党由法国议员、埃马纽埃尔-马克龙的复兴党成员瓦莱里-海耶(Valérie Hayer)担任主席。海耶女士与德国人玛丽-阿涅斯-施特拉克-齐默尔曼(Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann)和意大利人桑德罗-戈齐(Sandro Gozi)是自由党的联合候选人。

ID

Hard-right 硬右

The Identity and Democracy (ID) group was formed after the collapse of the Europe of Nations and Freedom group. The French National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party, leads the polls for it in France. Other members include Austria’s Freedom Party and the Dutch Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders. In May the Alternative for Germany (AfD) was kicked out of the group. It is chaired by Marco Zanni, of Italy’s Northern League.
认同与民主(ID)团体是在 "欧洲民族与自由 "团体解体后成立的。玛琳-勒庞领导的法国国民阵线在法国的民调中领先。其他成员包括奥地利自由党和 Geert Wilders 的荷兰自由党。5 月,德国选择党(AfD)被踢出该组织。该组织由意大利北方联盟的马尔科-赞尼(Marco Zanni)担任主席。

The Left 左翼

Left-wing 左翼

The Left in the European Parliament comprises Eurosceptic left-wing parties. Its biggest parties are La France Insoumise (Unsubmissive France), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Germany’s Die Linke. The group is chaired by Manon Aubry, a French MEP, and Martin Schirdewan, a German MEP.
欧洲议会中的左翼由欧洲怀疑论左翼政党组成。其最大的政党是让-吕克-梅朗雄领导的 "不屈的法国"(La France Insoumise)和德国的 "林克"(Die Linke)。该小组由法国议员马农-奥布里(Manon Aubry)和德国议员马丁-施尔德万(Martin Schirdewan)担任主席。

The Greens 绿地

Environmentalist 环保主义者

The Greens/European Free Alliance group provides a home for European green parties as well as some small regional parties, animal-welfare groups and pirate parties (which campaign on internet-freedom issues). It is pro-European. Germany’s Greens are its biggest party, followed by France’s Les Écologistes. It is chaired by Philippe Lamberts of Belgium and Terry Reintke of Germany.
绿党/欧洲自由联盟团体为欧洲绿党以及一些小型地区党派、动物福利团体和海盗党派(就互联网自由问题开展活动)提供了一个家园。它是亲欧洲的。德国绿党是其最大的政党,法国生态学家党紧随其后。比利时的菲利普-兰贝茨和德国的特里-赖因特克担任主席。

ECR

Right-wing 右翼

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are a group of conservative, soft-Eurosceptic parties. Its members include Poland’s Law and Justice party, the Brothers of Italy and Spain’s Vox. In 2016 the ECR expelled members of Germany’s AfD. After Britain left the EU it lost one of its biggest members—the British Conservative Party.
欧洲保守派和改革派(ECR)是一个由保守的、对欧元持软怀疑态度的政党组成的团体。其成员包括波兰的法律与公正党、意大利的兄弟党和西班牙的 Vox 党。2016 年,ECR 驱逐了德国 AfD 的成员。英国脱离欧盟后,它失去了最大的成员之一--英国保守党。

NI

Non-affiliated 非附属机构

Non-Inscrits (NI, French for “non-attached”) are parties that have decided against joining one of the existing groups in the European Parliament. Their numbers have grown in recent years. Hungary’s right-wing Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orban, the prime minister, as well as the conservative Jobbik party are NIs. Italy’s Five Star Movement is also part of this group.
非归附党(NI,法文为 "non-attached")是决定不加入欧洲议会现有党团的党派。近年来,它们的数量不断增加。匈牙利总理维克托-欧尔班(Viktor Orban)领导的右翼政党菲德斯党(Fidesz)以及保守的尤比克党(Jobbik)都是非归附者。意大利的五星运动也属于这一群体。

New

Non-affiliated 非附属机构

There are several new parties and coalitions that have not yet announced which group they might join if elected. One of them is Spain’s far-left Sumar, which ran in the country’s general election for the first time in 2023. Another is Portugal’s Democratic Alliance, which comprises three parties that have been associated with the EPP and the ECR. This category also includes all mentions of “other” parties in the polls.
有几个新的政党和联盟尚未宣布当选后可能加入哪个党派。其中之一是西班牙的极左翼政党 Sumar,该党于 2023 年首次参加该国大选。另一个是葡萄牙的民主联盟(Democratic Alliance),该联盟由与葡萄牙人民党(EPP)和葡萄牙共和党(ECR)有联系的三个政党组成。该类别还包括民调中提到的所有 "其他 "党派。


Sources: Europe Elects; European Parliament; Google Trends; national pollsters; The Economist
资料来源欧洲选举》、欧洲议会、谷歌趋势、各国民调机构、《经济学家》。