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European elections 2024 2024 年欧洲大选

Who will form the next European parliament?
谁将组成下一届欧洲议会?

Last updated on June 10th 2024
最后更新于 2024 年 6 月 10 日

Projected results, seats
预计结果,席位

2024

Left35Greens53S&D135Renew83New50NI45EPP191ECR71ID57 Left-wingCentristRight-wingUnaffiliated

2019

Editor’s note (10:35pm GMT, June 9th 2024): This page has been updated with the provisional results of the election.
编者按(格林尼治标准时间 2024 年 6 月 9 日晚 10:35):本页已根据选举的临时结果进行了更新。
After four days of voting, the EU has published a first projection of the results for its election of a new European Parliament. As polls predicted, the centre-right group known as the European People’s Party, or EPP, is once again the largest; it is projected to win 191 seats. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) looks set to win about 135 seats. But the hard right has gained ground in some countries.
经过四天的投票,欧盟公布了新一届欧洲议会选举的首次预测结果。正如民意调查所预测的那样,中右翼的欧洲人民党(EPP)再次成为最大的党派,预计将赢得 191 个席位。中左翼的社会党与民主党进步联盟(S&D)预计将赢得约 135 个席位。但在一些国家,强硬右翼势力已占据上风。
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you can find a breakdown of the results, analysis of what’s at stake and short guides to each group in the Parliament. And if you are interested in contests elsewhere, see our Trump/Biden poll tracker, our British election tracker and more at our election tracker hub.
经济学人》正在跟踪报道此次竞选。在这里,您可以找到结果明细、利害关系分析以及议会中各团体的简短指南。如果您对其他地方的选举感兴趣,请访问我们的选举跟踪中心,查看我们的特朗普/拜登民调跟踪、英国选举跟踪以及更多内容。
The hard-right Identity & Democracy (ID) group is projected to win 57 seats. It failed to pull ahead of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a group of soft Eurosceptics. Nor did it beat and replace the liberal Renew Europe group, who remain as the third-biggest force in parliament. That was partly because the ID group ejected one of its biggest members, Alternative for Germany (AfD), at the end of May. Maximilian Krah, one of the AfD’s candidates, had suggested that not all officers in Nazi Germany were war criminals. In 2016, the AfD was expelled by the ECR, who have also gained seats and come fourth in this election.
强硬右翼的认同与民主党(ID)预计将赢得 57 个席位。该党派未能超过欧洲保守派和改革派(ECR),后者是一个由软欧洲怀疑论者组成的党派。它也没有击败并取代自由派的 "欧洲复兴"(Renew Europe)党团,后者仍是议会中的第三大势力。其部分原因是,ID 集团在 5 月底将其最大的成员之一--德国另类选择党(AfD)驱逐出了议会。AfD的候选人之一马克西米利安-克拉(Maximilian Krah)曾提出,纳粹德国的军官并非都是战犯。2016 年,AfD 被 ECR 驱逐,而 ECR 在本次选举中也获得了席位,排名第四。
The biggest winner of the night was Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, her hard-right party, which is part of the ID group. National Rally was projected to win 30 seats whereas President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition secured just 14. On Sunday evening Mr Macron announced he would dissolve the French national assembly and called legislative elections, to take place on June 30th and July 7th.
当晚最大的赢家是玛琳娜-勒庞和她的强硬右翼党派--隶属于 ID 集团的全国集会党(National Rally)。国民联盟党预计将赢得 30 个席位,而埃马纽埃尔-马克龙总统的联盟党仅获得 14 个席位。周日晚间,马克龙宣布将解散法国国民议会,并将于 6 月 30 日和 7 月 7 日举行立法选举。
On Monday, the jockeying for the top jobs will commence. Ursula von der Leyen, the current head of the Commission and lead candidate of the EPP, will need 361 votes to be re-elected. The current projections suggest the centrist parties (EPP, S&D and Renew) will win 409 seats. A secret ballot will take place in July or September.
下周一,最高职位的角逐将拉开帷幕。乌苏拉-冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)是现任委员会主席,也是欧洲进步党的主要候选人,她需要 361 票才能再次当选。根据目前的预测,中间派政党(人民党、社民党和革新党)将赢得 409 个席位。无记名投票将于 7 月或 9 月举行。
Read more about what powers the European Parliament holds and our analysis of Europe’s shift to the right. Scroll down to see past polls and our guides to each group in Parliament.
阅读更多有关欧洲议会拥有哪些权力的信息,以及我们对欧洲向右转的分析。向下滚动,查看过去的民意调查和我们对议会中每个小组的介绍。

Voting intention, % 投票意向,%

Left 左侧
Right 
Unaffiliated 无隶属关系
Jan2024FebMarAprMayJun 051015202530 Jun 9th10 ECR 22 EPP 6 Greens/EFA 9 ID 7 NI 10 Renew Europe 16 S&D 6 The Left 14 New parties
Dozens of parties, both national and European, are represented in the Parliament, but most belong to one of seven political groups. They work on policies ranging from aid for Ukraine to data-protection laws and cutting the EU’s carbon emissions.
议会中有数十个国家党派和欧洲党派的代表,但大多数属于七个政治团体之一。他们致力于制定从援助乌克兰到数据保护法和削减欧盟碳排放量等各种政策。
Left 左侧
Right 
Unaffiliated 无隶属关系

France 法国

JFMAMJ 010203040% Jun 6th6 ECR 7 EPP 6 Greens 33 ID 15 Renew 14 S&D 12 Left 7 New

Germany 德国

JFMAMJ 010203040% Jun 5th30 EPP 14 Greens 16 NI 6 Renew 15 S&D 9 Left 11 New

Italy 意大利

JFMAM 010203040% May 22nd27 ECR 9 EPP 9 ID 15 NI 9 Renew 21 S&D 2 Left 8 New

Spain 西班牙

JFMAM 010203040% May 28th11 ECR 36 EPP 2 NI 2 Renew 31 S&D 4 Left 14 New
At the previous election in 2019, liberals also feared a shift to the right. But although the number of right-wing MEPs grew, so did the tally of those belonging to the most pro-EU parties. Since then, however, the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and renewed worries about immigration have led to a surge in support for right-wingers in some member states. In 2022 Italy voted a hard-right party into office, and in 2023 the party of Geert Wilders, an anti-Muslim populist, won the Dutch election (though he has not been able to form a government). The European polls show that parties on the fringes are gaining ground compared with 2019.
在 2019 年的上一次选举中,自由派也担心会出现右倾。不过,尽管右翼欧洲议会议员的人数有所增加,但属于最亲欧盟政党的议员人数也有所增加。然而,自那以后,"covid-19 "大流行病的影响、乌克兰和中东的战争以及对移民问题的重新担忧,导致一些成员国右翼分子的支持率激增。2022 年,意大利投票选举一个强硬右翼政党上台,2023 年,反穆斯林民粹主义者 Geert Wilders 的政党赢得了荷兰大选(尽管他未能组建政府)。欧洲民调显示,与 2019 年相比,边缘政党的支持率正在上升。
What may give centrists hope is that right-wing groups remain deeply divided—many hard-right parties are “Non-Inscrits”, or non-attached, meaning that they have decided not to join a parliamentary group. And a large number of new parties or coalitions have not yet announced which group they might join if their candidates are elected.
可能会给中间派带来希望的是,右翼团体仍然存在严重分歧--许多强硬右翼党派都是 "Non-Inscrits",即非归属党派,这意味着它们决定不加入某个议会党团。而许多新政党或联盟尚未宣布,如果他们的候选人当选,他们可能会加入哪个党派。

Share of seats in European Parliament, %

100

Left

Greens

Left-wing

75

S&D

Renew

Centrist

50

NI

EPP

25

Right-wing

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

Share of seats in European Parliament, %

100

Left

Greens

75

S&D

Renew

50

NI

EPP

25

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

Share of seats in European Parliament, %
欧洲议会席位所占比例,%

100

Left 左侧

Greens 绿色

Left-wing 左翼

75

S&D

Renew 更新

Centrist 中间派

50

NI

EPP

25

Right-wing 右翼

ECR

ID

0

1979

84

89

94

99

2004

09

14

19

As well as making laws and deciding on the EU’s budget (along with the EU’s 27 member states and the European Commission), the Parliament plays a role in who gets the EU’s plum jobs. Each group can nominate a “Spitzenkandidat”, or lead candidate for president of the European Commission. Although who gets the post is ultimately decided by the EU’s 27 national leaders, the Parliament must then approve their choice. Ursula von der Leyen, the current president, won in 2019 without being the top candidate of any group, prompting questions over whether the Spitzenkandidat system, introduced in 2014, will endure.
除了制定法律和决定欧盟预算(与欧盟 27 个成员国和欧盟委员会一起)外,议会还对谁能获得欧盟的重要职位发挥作用。每个集团都可以提名一位 "Spitzenkandidat",即欧盟委员会主席的主要候选人。虽然最终由欧盟 27 个国家的领导人决定由谁担任这一职位,但议会必须批准他们的选择。现任主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)在 2019 年获胜时没有成为任何集团的头号候选人,这引发了人们对 2014 年推出的 "Spitzenkidat "制度是否会持续下去的疑问。

Google search interest, Jan 1st-June 3rd 2024
谷歌搜索兴趣,2024 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 3 日

Least 最少
Most 大多数

Conflicts 冲突