Which countries would be most affected by a second Trump term?

IF DONALD TRUMP wins a second term in November’s election, major shifts in American policy would follow. The Republican platform—a 16-page document that provides insight into how Mr Trump could lead—calls for a massive programme to deport undocumented immigrants and tighter controls on who comes into the country. Trading partners should expect higher tariffs and restrictions: the former president has already outlined plans for levies on all imports. Military aid would probably become more conditional; allies would be browbeaten into increasing their own spending on defence.

To help make sense of the global repercussions, EIU, our sister company, ranked America’s 70 largest trading partners by their exposure to Trumpian policies (see map). The ranking—which EIU calls the “Trump risk index”—is based on countries’ exposure to American policies on trade, security and immigration.

Mexico, America’s largest trading partner, tops the list with a score of 71 out of 100. Stricter immigration rules could affect millions of Mexicans who enter America both legally and illegally (though migrants from other countries now make up a bigger share of those crossing the border). And data released earlier this year showed that Mexico overtook China in 2023 to become the number-one exporter to America. Trade deficits are a major concern for Mr Trump; the deficit with Mexico rose to $152bn in 2023, up 37% since 2020. In 2026 Mexico, America and Canada have to discuss whether to extend their free-trade agreement, known as USMCA, beyond 2036. Mr Trump signed the USMCA, but that is no guarantee that he would not scrap it, or use it as leverage to extract concessions from Mexico—particularly concerning its trade with China.

Five other countries in Latin America make the top ten: Costa Rica and Panama come second and fifth, respectively, because of their low spending on weapons and defence as well as their dependence on American military aid. The Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Honduras rank high on the index because of their vulnerability to tighter immigration policies: remittance payments from America make up between 8% and 23% of their GDP.

Germany ranks third, the highest of any NATO ally. In his first term Mr Trump wanted to withdraw more than 12,000 American troops from  Germany and criticised the country’s low spending on defence (NATO members are meant to spend at least 2% of GDP). In a second term Mr Trump could threaten to reduce military aid to Ukraine as a way to press allies to raise their own defence spending.

China—against which Mr Trump waged a trade war during his first term—ranks the highest of any country in Asia and sixth overall. Mr Trump has signalled that he wants a more decisive decoupling from China. He has threatened to slap a 60% levy on its goods.

Countries that are less reliant on America rank the lowest. Saudi Arabia scores fewer than ten points out of 100 because of its diminishing reliance on American trade (except for weapons purchases). Australia also ranks low on the index because it has built stronger trade links with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia, which has already been cut off from most forms of trade with the West, places 63rd on the index.

Still, Mr Trump could find it difficult to impose his most radical policies. Plenty of Republicans still resist tariffs, for example. Curbs on immigration would face resistance from courts, Democrats and businesses, which would have a harder time hiring employees. On international security Mr Trump looks more dangerous. He has already shown his willingness to dump international agreements by pulling out of the Paris climate accords (President Joe Biden took America back in). Some worry that in a second term Mr Trump would also want to leave NATO, or significantly undermine the military alliance. November 5th could be a decisive day for both America’s citizens and its allies. ■