What Are Mental Models?
什么是心理模型？
A mental model is a compression of how something works. Any idea, belief, or concept can be distilled down. Like a map, mental models reveal key information while ignoring irrelevant details. Models concentrate the world into understandable and useable chunks.
心智模式是对事物运作方式的压缩。任何想法、信念或概念都可以提炼出来。就像地图一样，心智模式揭示了关键信息，同时忽略了无关细节。模型将世界浓缩成可以理解和使用的块状。
Mental models help us understand the world. For example, velocity is a mental model that helps you understand that both speed and direction matter. Reciprocity is a mental model that helps you understand how going positive and going first gets the world to do most of the work for you. Margin of Safety is a mental model that helps you understand that things don’t always go as planned. Relativity is a mental model that shows us we have blind spots and how a different perspective can reveal new information. The list goes on.
心智模式帮助我们理解世界。例如，速度是一种心智模式，它帮助你理解速度和方向都很重要。互惠是一种心智模式，它帮助你理解积极行动和先行一步如何让世界为你做大部分工作。安全边际（Margin of Safety）是一种心智模式，它能帮助你理解事情并不总是按计划进行。相对论是一种心智模式，它告诉我们存在盲点，不同的视角可以揭示新的信息。这样的例子不胜枚举。
Coming October 2024: Pre-order all 4 volumes of The Great Mental Models now.
将于 2024 年 10 月推出：现在就预购全部 4 卷《伟大的心智模式》。
Eliminating Blind Spots 消除盲点
In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins.
在生活和事业中，盲点越少的人越能获胜。
The source of all poor choices is blind spots. Think about it. If you had perfect information, you would always make the best decision. You’d play your hand perfectly in a poker game where you could see everyone’s cards. You wouldn’t make any mistakes.
所有错误选择的根源都是盲点。想一想吧。如果你拥有完美的信息，你总是会做出最好的决定。在扑克牌游戏中，你可以看到每个人的牌，你的牌会打得非常完美。你不会犯任何错误。
How do we eliminate blind spots?
如何消除盲点？
The best way to reduce our blind spots is to change our perspective. Just as knowing where to stand can turn a good photo into a great one, changing your perspective on a situation reveals critical information and offers new solutions.
减少盲点的最好方法就是改变我们的视角。就像知道站在什么位置可以把一张好照片变成一张好照片一样，改变你对某种情况的看法可以揭示关键信息并提供新的解决方案。
Think of each model as a lens through which you can see the world. Each lens offers a different perspective, revealing new information. Looking through one lens lets you see one thing, and looking through another reveals something different. Looking through them both reveals more than each one individually.
把每种模式都看成是你观察世界的透镜。每个镜头都提供了不同的视角，揭示了新的信息。通过一种透镜，你可以看到一种事物，而通过另一种透镜，你可以看到不同的事物。同时透过这两个镜头，你会发现比单独透过一个镜头更多的信息。
While there are a lot of specific mental models, only a handful of general ones come from the big disciplines. Understanding them positions you to make fewer errors, see things others miss, and take better actions.
虽然有很多具体的心智模式，但只有少数几种一般的心智模式来自各大学科。了解了它们，你就能减少错误，看到别人忽略的东西，并采取更好的行动。
Let’s take a look at the best general models.
让我们来看看最佳通用模型。
You’ve got to have models in your head and you’ve got to array you experience – both vicarious and direct – onto this latticework of mental models.
Charlie munger 查理-芒格
你必须在头脑中建立模型，并将你的经验--包括替代经验和直接经验--排列到这个心智模型的格子上。
A Latticework of Mental Models
心智模式的格子结构
Worldly wisdom is not simply memorizing things and repeating them back. The people that do that fail at work and fail in life. Wisdom is knowing the consequences of your actions, which comes from the alignment between facts and reasoning.
世俗的智慧不是简单地背诵和复述。这样做的人工作和生活都会失败。智慧是知道自己行为的后果，它来自于事实与推理的统一。
The world is not divided into distinct disciplines. For example, business professors won’t discuss physics in their lectures, but they should. Velocity teaches us that speed and direction matter. Kinetic energy teaches us that velocity matters more than mass when creating a force. Understanding these insights helps you outperform.
世界并没有划分为不同的学科。例如，商学教授不会在讲座中讨论物理学，但他们应该讨论物理学。速度告诉我们，速度和方向很重要。动能告诉我们，在产生力时，速度比质量更重要。了解这些见解有助于你超越自我。
In the real world, everything is connected like a latticework. Just because our teachers didn’t show us how to use the big ideas from all the disciplines in life and business doesn’t mean we can’t learn them ourselves. That’s why we created The Great Mental Models project.
在现实世界中，万事万物都像格子一样相互连接。虽然我们的老师没有告诉我们如何在生活和商业中运用所有学科的重要思想，但这并不意味着我们不能自己学习这些思想。这就是我们创建 "伟大的心智模型 "项目的原因。
Here are the big ideas that can help you make better decisions, avoid problems, and spot opportunities others miss.
以下这些重要理念可以帮助你做出更好的决策，避免问题，并发现别人错失的机会。
- Core Thinking Concepts 核心思维概念
- Physics and Chemistry 物理和化学
- Biology 生物学
- Systems 系统
- Numeracy 识数
- Microeconomics 微观经济学
- Military and War 军事与战争
- Human Nature and Judgment
人性与判断力
The Core Mental Models
核心思维模式
1. The Map is Not the Territory
1.地图不是领土
The map is not the territory is a reminder that our mental models of the world are not the same as the world itself. It’s a caution against confusing our abstractions and representations with the complex, ever-shifting reality they aim to describe.
《地图不是领土》提醒我们，我们心目中的世界模型与世界本身并不相同。它告诫我们，不要把我们的抽象概念和表象与它们所要描述的复杂多变的现实相混淆。
Mistaking the maps for the territory is dangerous. Consider the person who has a great résumé and checks all the boxes on paper but can’t do the actual job. Updating our maps is a difficult process of reconciling what we want to be true with what is true.
将地图误认为领土是很危险的。试想一下，一个人有一份出色的简历，纸上谈兵，却无法胜任实际工作。更新我们的地图是一个艰难的过程，需要将我们所希望的真实情况与真实情况相协调。
In many areas of life, we are offered maps by other people. We are reliant on the maps provided by experts, pundits, and teachers. In these cases, the best we can do is to choose our mapmakers wisely, to seek out those who are rigorous, transparent, and open to revision.
在生活的许多领域，我们的地图都是由其他人提供的。我们依赖专家、学者和老师提供的地图。在这种情况下，我们所能做的就是明智地选择我们的地图绘制者，寻找那些严谨、透明、愿意修改的人。
Ultimately, the map/territory distinction is an invitation to engage with the world as it is, not just as we imagine it to be. And remember, when you don’t make the map yourself, choose your cartographer wisely.
归根结底，地图与领土的区别是邀请我们去接触真实的世界，而不仅仅是我们想象中的世界。请记住，当地图不是你自己绘制的时候，请明智地选择你的制图师。
The first rule of competition is, you are more likely to win if you play where you have an advantage. Doing so requires a firm understanding of what you know and what you don’t know. Your circle of competence is your personal sphere of expertise, the area where your knowledge and skills are concentrated. It’s the domain where you have a deep understanding, where your judgments are reliable, and your decisions are sound.
竞争的第一条规则是，如果你在比赛中占据优势，你就更有可能获胜。要做到这一点，就必须牢牢了解自己知道什么，不知道什么。你的能力圈是你个人的专业领域，是你的知识和技能集中的地方。在这个领域，你有深刻的理解，你的判断是可靠的，你的决策是正确的。
The size of your circle isn’t as important as knowing the boundaries. The wise person is the one who knows the limits of their knowledge, who can say with confidence, “This falls within my circle,” or “This is outside my area of expertise.”
圈子的大小并不重要，重要的是知道界限。明智的人知道自己知识的界限，能够自信地说："这属于我的圈子 "或 "这超出了我的专业领域"。
Operating within your circle of competence is a recipe for confidence and effectiveness. But venturing outside your circle of competence is a recipe for trouble. You’re like a sailor navigating unfamiliar waters without a map, at the mercy of currents and storms you don’t fully understand. This isn’t to say that you should never venture outside your circle. Learning new things, gaining new skills, and mastering new domains is one of the most beautiful things about life.
在自己的能力范围内工作是自信和高效的秘诀。但在自己的能力范围之外冒险，则会带来麻烦。你就像一个水手，在没有地图的情况下航行在陌生的水域，任凭你不完全了解的洋流和风暴摆布。这并不是说你永远都不应该走出自己的圈子。学习新事物、获得新技能、掌握新领域是人生最美好的事情之一。
Celebrate your expertise, but also acknowledge your limitations.
赞美自己的专业知识，但也要承认自己的局限性。
3. First Principles Thinking
3.第一原理思维
First-principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility. Sometimes called reasoning from first principles, it’s a tool to help clarify complicated problems by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. What remains are the essentials. If you know the first principles of something, you can build the rest of your knowledge around them to produce something new.
第一原理思维是逆向设计复杂情况、释放创造可能性的最佳方法之一。有时也被称为第一原理推理，它是一种通过将基本概念或事实与基于它们的任何假设分离开来，从而帮助澄清复杂问题的工具。剩下的就是基本原理。如果你知道了某件事情的第一原理，你就可以围绕这些原理构建其余的知识，从而产生新的东西。
4. Thought Experiment 4.思想实验
Thought experiments can be defined as “devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of things.” Many disciplines, such as philosophy and physics, make use of thought experiments to examine what can be known. In doing so, they can open up new avenues for inquiry and exploration. Thought experiments are powerful because they help us learn from our mistakes and avoid future ones. They let us take on the impossible, evaluate the potential consequences of our actions, and re-examine history to make better decisions. They can help us both figure out what we really want and the best way to get there.
思想实验可以定义为 "用来研究事物本质的想象装置"。哲学和物理学等许多学科都利用思想实验来研究已知事物。这样，思想实验可以为探究和探索开辟新的途径。思想实验之所以强大，是因为它能帮助我们从错误中吸取教训，避免未来的错误。它们让我们挑战不可能，评估行动的潜在后果，重新审视历史，从而做出更好的决定。思想实验既能帮助我们弄清自己真正想要什么，也能帮助我们找到达到目标的最佳途径。
5. Second-Order Thinking
5.二阶思维
Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe, but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to consider not only our actions and their immediate consequences but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second and third-order effects can unleash disaster.
几乎每个人都能预见到自己行动的直接结果。这种一阶思维既简单又安全，但也能确保你获得与其他人相同的结果。二阶思维是更长远的思考和全面的思考。它要求我们不仅要考虑自己的行为及其直接后果，还要考虑这些行为的后续影响。不考虑二阶和三阶效应可能会带来灾难。
6. Probabilistic Thinking
6.概率思维
Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these, our decisions can be more precise and effective.
概率思维本质上就是利用一些数学和逻辑工具，试图估算出任何特定结果发生的可能性。它是我们提高决策准确性的最佳工具之一。在一个每时每刻都由无限复杂的因素决定的世界里，概率思维可以帮助我们确定最有可能出现的结果。当我们知道了这些，我们的决策就会更加精确和有效。
7. Inversion 7.反转
Inversion is a powerful tool to improve your thinking because it helps you identify and remove obstacles to success. The root of inversion is “invert,” which means to upend or turn upside down. As a thinking tool, it means approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Most of us tend to think one way about a problem: forward. Inversion allows us to flip the problem around and think backward. Sometimes it’s good to start at the beginning, but it can be more useful to start at the end.
反转是改善思维的有力工具，因为它能帮助你识别并消除成功的障碍。倒置的词根是 "invert"，意思是颠倒或倒转。作为一种思维工具，它意味着从自然起点的另一端来处理问题。我们大多数人都倾向于以一种方式思考问题：正向思考。倒置法可以让我们把问题翻转过来，反向思考。有时，从头开始是好的，但从尾部开始可能更有用。
8. Occam’s Razor 8.奥卡姆剃刀
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complicated ones. This is the essence of Occam’s Razor, a classic principle of logic and problem-solving. Instead of wasting your time trying to disprove complex scenarios, you can make decisions more confidently by basing them on the explanation that has the fewest moving parts.
简单的解释比复杂的解释更有可能成立。这是奥卡姆剃刀的精髓，也是逻辑和解决问题的经典原则。与其把时间浪费在推翻复杂的假设上，还不如根据活动部分最少的解释做出更有把握的决定。
9. Hanlon’s Razor 9.汉伦剃刀
Hard to trace in its origin, Hanlon’s Razor states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity. In a complex world, using this model helps us avoid paranoia and ideology. By not generally assuming that bad results are the fault of a bad actor, we look for options instead of missing opportunities. This model reminds us that people do make mistakes. It demands that we ask if there is another reasonable explanation for the events that have occurred. The explanation most likely to be right is the one that contains the least amount of intent.
汉伦剃刀的起源很难追溯，它指出，我们不应该把更容易解释为愚蠢的事情归结为恶意。在一个复杂的世界里，使用这一模式有助于我们避免偏执和意识形态。通过不笼统地认为坏结果是坏行为者的过错，我们可以寻找选择，而不是错失良机。这种模式提醒我们，人们确实会犯错误。它要求我们问一问，对于已经发生的事件，是否还有其他合理的解释。最有可能正确的解释是包含最少意图的解释。
The Mental Models of Physics and Chemistry
物理和化学的心理模型
1. Relativity 1.相对论
Relativity has been used in several contexts in the world of physics, but the important aspect to study is the idea that an observer cannot truly understand a system of which he himself is a part. For example, a man inside an airplane does not feel like he is experiencing movement, but an outside observer can see that movement is occurring. This form of relativity tends to affect social systems in a similar way.
相对论在物理学界有多种应用，但研究的重要方面是观察者无法真正理解他自己是其中一部分的系统这一观点。例如，在飞机上的人感觉不到自己正在经历运动，但外部观察者却能看到运动正在发生。这种形式的相对性往往会以类似的方式影响社会系统。
2. Reciprocity 2.互惠性
If I push on a wall, physics tells me that the wall pushes back with equivalent force. In a biological system, if one individual acts on another, the action will tend to be reciprocated in kind. And of course, human beings act with intense reciprocity demonstrated as well.
物理学告诉我，如果我推一堵墙，墙也会以同等的力量推回来。在生物系统中，如果一个个体作用于另一个个体，这种作用往往会得到相应的回报。当然，人类的行为也表现出强烈的互惠性。
3. Thermodynamics 3.热力学
The laws of thermodynamics describe energy in a closed system. The laws cannot be escaped and underlie the physical world. They describe a world in which useful energy is constantly being lost, and energy cannot be created or destroyed. Applying their lessons to the social world can be a profitable enterprise.
热力学定律描述了封闭系统中的能量。热力学定律无法逃避，是物理世界的基础。热力学定律描述了一个有用能量不断损失、能量无法被创造或毁灭的世界。将热力学定律应用于社会世界是一项有利可图的事业。
4. Inertia 4.惯性
An object in motion with a certain vector wants to continue moving in that direction unless acted upon. This is a fundamental physical principle of motion; however, individuals, systems, and organizations display the same effect. It allows them to minimize the use of energy, but can cause them to be destroyed or eroded.
运动中的物体如果没有受到作用，就会沿着某个矢量继续运动。这是运动的基本物理原理；然而，个人、系统和组织也表现出同样的效果。这使它们能够最大限度地减少能量的使用，但也可能导致它们遭到破坏或侵蚀。
5. Friction and Viscosity
5.摩擦和粘度
Both friction and viscosity describe the difficulty of movement. Friction is a force that opposes the movement of objects that are in contact with each other, and viscosity measures how hard it is for one fluid to slide over another. Higher viscosity leads to higher resistance. These concepts teach us a lot about how our environment can impede our movement.
摩擦力和粘度都描述了运动的困难程度。摩擦力是一种阻碍相互接触的物体运动的力，而粘度则衡量一种流体在另一种流体上滑动的难度。粘度越高，阻力越大。这些概念告诉我们很多关于环境如何阻碍我们运动的知识。
6. Velocity 6.速度
Velocity is not equivalent to speed; the two are sometimes confused. Velocity is speed plus vector: how fast something gets somewhere. An object that moves two steps forward and then two steps back has moved at a certain speed but shows no velocity. The addition of the vector, that critical distinction, is what we should consider in practical life.
速度并不等同于速度，两者有时会被混淆。速度是速度加上矢量：物体到达某处的速度。一个物体向前移动两步，然后向后移动两步，虽然有一定的速度，但却没有速度。在实际生活中，我们应该考虑的是矢量的加成，即关键的区别。
7. Leverage 7.杠杆作用
Most of the engineering marvels of the world were accomplished with applied leverage. As famously stated by Archimedes, “Give me a lever long enough and I shall move the world.” With a small amount of input force, we can make a great output force through leverage. Understanding where we can apply this model to the human world can be a source of great success.
世界上大多数工程奇迹都是通过应用杠杆实现的。正如阿基米德的名言："给我一根足够长的杠杆，我就能撬动世界"。只要输入少量的力，我们就能通过杠杆产生巨大的输出力。了解我们可以将这一模式应用于人类世界的哪些方面，将是我们取得巨大成功的源泉。
8. Activation Energy 8.活化能
A fire is not much more than a combination of carbon and oxygen, but the forests and coal mines of the world are not combusting at will because such a chemical reaction requires the input of a critical level of “activation energy” in order to get a reaction started. Two combustible elements alone are not enough.
火不过是碳和氧的结合，但世界上的森林和煤矿并不是随意燃烧的，因为这种化学反应需要输入临界水平的 "活化能 "才能开始。仅有两种可燃元素是不够的。
9. Catalysts 9.催化剂
A catalyst either kick-starts or maintains a chemical reaction but isn’t itself a reactant. The reaction may slow or stop without the addition of catalysts. Social systems, of course, take on many similar traits, and we can view catalysts in a similar light.
催化剂可以启动或维持化学反应，但本身不是反应物。如果不添加催化剂，反应可能会减慢或停止。当然，社会系统也有许多类似的特征，我们可以从类似的角度来看待催化剂。
10. Alloying 10.合金化
When we combine various elements, we create new substances. This is no great surprise, but what can be surprising in the alloying process is that 2+2 can equal not 4 but 6 – the alloy can be far stronger than the simple addition of the underlying elements would lead us to believe. This process leads us to engineer great physical objects, but we understand many intangibles in the same way; a combination of the right elements in social systems or even individuals can create a 2+2=6 effect similar to alloying.
当我们把各种元素组合在一起时，就会产生新的物质。这并不令人惊讶，但在合金化过程中令人惊讶的是，2+2 可能不等于 4，而是等于 6--合金的强度可能远远超过简单的基本元素相加所产生的效果。这个过程让我们设计出了伟大的实物，但我们对许多无形资产的理解也是如此；社会系统甚至个人中正确元素的组合可以产生类似合金的 2+2=6 效果。
The Mental Models of Biology
生物学的心理模型
1. Evolution Part One: Natural Selection and Extinction
1.进化论》第一部分：自然选择与灭绝
Evolution by natural selection was once called “the greatest idea anyone ever had.” In the 19th century, Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace simultaneously realized that species evolve through random mutation and differential survival rates. If we call human intervention in animal breeding an example of “artificial selection,” we can call Mother Nature deciding the success or failure of a particular mutation “natural selection.” Those best suited for survival tend to be preserved. But of course, conditions change.
自然选择进化论曾被称为 "有史以来最伟大的思想"。19 世纪，查尔斯-达尔文和阿尔弗雷德-拉塞尔-华莱士同时意识到，物种是通过随机变异和不同的存活率进化而来的。如果我们把人类对动物繁殖的干预称为 "人工选择"，那么我们可以把大自然母亲决定特定变异成败的行为称为 "自然选择"。最适合生存的物种往往会被保留下来。当然，条件是会改变的。
2. Evolution Part Two: Adaptation and The Red Queen Effect
2.进化论》第二部分：适应与红皇后效应
Species tend to adapt to their surroundings in order to survive, given the combination of their genetics and their environment – an always-unavoidable combination. However, adaptations made in an individual’s lifetime are not passed down genetically, as was once thought: Populations of species adapt through the process of evolution by natural selection, as the most-fit examples of the species replicate at an above-average rate.
在遗传和环境的共同作用下，物种为了生存，往往会适应周围的环境--这是一个永远无法避免的组合。然而，个体在一生中所做的适应并不像人们曾经认为的那样会遗传下去：物种种群的适应是通过自然选择的进化过程实现的，因为最适合的物种会以高于平均水平的速度复制。
The evolution-by-natural-selection model leads to something of an arms race among species competing for limited resources. When one species evolves an advantageous adaptation, a competing species must respond in kind or fail as a species. Standing still can mean falling behind. This arms race is called the Red Queen Effect for the character in Alice in Wonderland who said, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”
自然选择进化模式导致了物种间争夺有限资源的军备竞赛。当一个物种进化出一种有利的适应性时，与之竞争的物种必须做出相应的反应，否则就会失败。原地踏步就意味着落后。这种军备竞赛被称为 "红皇后效应"（Red Queen Effect），因为《爱丽丝梦游仙境》（Alice in Wonderland）中的一个角色说过："现在，你看，你要竭尽全力奔跑，才能保持在原地不动"。
3. Ecosystems 3.生态系统
An ecosystem describes any group of organisms coexisting with the natural world. Most ecosystems show diverse forms of life taking on different approaches to survival, with such pressures leading to varying behavior. Social systems can be seen in the same light as the physical ecosystems and many of the same conclusions can be made.
生态系统是指与自然界共存的任何生物群体。在大多数生态系统中，不同形式的生物采取了不同的生存方式，这些压力导致了不同的行为。社会系统可以从与物理生态系统相同的角度来看待，并且可以得出许多相同的结论。
4. Niches 4.龛位
Most organisms find a niche: a method of competing and behaving for survival. Usually, a species will select a niche for which it is best adapted. The danger arises when multiple species begin competing for the same niche, which can cause an extinction – there can be only so many species doing the same thing before limited resources give out.
大多数生物都能找到自己的生存环境：一种为生存而进行竞争和行为的方法。通常，一个物种会选择它最适应的生态位。当多个物种开始竞争同一个生态位时，危险就出现了，这可能会导致物种灭绝--在有限的资源耗尽之前，只能有这么多物种做同样的事情。
5. Self-Preservation 5.自我保护
Without a strong self-preservation instinct in an organism’s DNA, it would tend to disappear over time, thus eliminating that DNA. While cooperation is another important model, the self-preservation instinct is strong in all organisms and can cause violent, erratic, and/or destructive behavior for those around them.
如果生物的 DNA 中没有强烈的自我保护本能，那么随着时间的推移，这种本能往往会消失，从而消除这种 DNA。虽然合作是另一种重要的模式，但所有生物的自我保护本能都很强，会对周围的人造成暴力、不稳定和/或破坏性的行为。
6. Replication 6.复制
A fundamental building block of diverse biological life is high-fidelity replication. The fundamental unit of replication seems to be the DNA molecule, which provides a blueprint for the offspring to be built from physical building blocks. There are a variety of replication methods, but most can be lumped into sexual and asexual.
多样化生物生命的一个基本组成部分是高保真复制。复制的基本单位似乎是 DNA 分子，它为后代提供了由物理构件构建的蓝图。复制方法多种多样，但大多数可归纳为有性复制和无性复制。
7. Cooperation 7.合作
Competition tends to describe most biological systems, but cooperation at various levels is just as important a dynamic. In fact, the cooperation of a bacterium and a simple cell probably created the first complex cell and all of the life we see around us. Without cooperation, no group survives, and the cooperation of groups gives rise to even more complex versions of organization. Cooperation and competition tend to coexist at multiple levels.
竞争往往是大多数生物系统的特征，但不同层次的合作也是同样重要的动力。事实上，一个细菌和一个简单细胞的合作可能创造了第一个复杂细胞和我们周围的所有生命。没有合作，就没有群体的生存，而群体的合作又产生了更为复杂的组织形式。合作与竞争往往在多个层面并存。
The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a famous application of game theory in which two prisoners are both better off cooperating with each other, but if one of them cheats, the other is better off cheating. Thus the dilemma. This model shows up in economic life, in war, and in many other areas of practical human life. Though the prisoner’s dilemma theoretically leads to a poor result, in the real world, cooperation is nearly always possible and must be explored.
囚徒困境是博弈论的一个著名应用，其中两个囚徒相互合作会更好，但如果其中一人作弊，另一人作弊也会更好。因此出现了两难局面。这种模式出现在经济生活、战争和人类实际生活的许多其他领域。虽然囚徒困境在理论上会导致糟糕的结果，但在现实世界中，合作几乎总是可能的，而且必须加以探索。
8. Hierarchical Organization
8.分级组织
Most complex biological organisms have an innate feel for how they should organize. While not all of them end up in hierarchical structures, many do, especially in the animal kingdom. Human beings like to think they are outside of this, but they feel the hierarchical instinct as strongly as any other organism. This includes the Stanford Prison Experiment and Milgram Experiments, which demonstrated what humans learned practically many years before: the human bias towards being influenced by authority. In a dominance hierarchy such as ours, we tend to look to the leader for guidance on behavior, especially in situations of stress or uncertainty. Thus, authority figures have a responsibility to act well, whether they like it or not.
大多数复杂的生物有机体天生就知道自己应该如何组织。虽然并非所有生物最终都会形成等级结构，但许多生物都是如此，尤其是在动物界。人类喜欢认为自己置身事外，但他们和其他生物一样强烈地感受到等级本能。这包括斯坦福监狱实验和米尔格拉姆实验，这两个实验证明了人类多年前的实践经验：人类倾向于受权威的影响。在像我们这样的统治等级制度中，我们倾向于向领导者寻求行为指导，尤其是在压力或不确定的情况下。因此，无论他们喜欢与否，权威人物都有责任表现良好。
9. Incentives 9.激励措施
All creatures respond to incentives to keep themselves alive. This is the basic insight of biology. Constant incentives will tend to cause a biological entity to have constant behavior to an extent. Humans are included and are particularly great examples of the incentive-driven nature of biology; however, humans are complicated in that their incentives can be hidden or intangible. The rule of life is to repeat what works and has been rewarded.
所有生物都会对激励措施做出反应，以维持自身的生命。这是生物学的基本观点。恒定的激励机制在一定程度上会使生物实体的行为趋于恒定。人类也是其中之一，而且是生物学激励驱动本质的最佳例证；然而，人类是复杂的，因为他们的激励可能是隐藏的或无形的。生命的法则就是重复那些有效的和有回报的行为。
10. Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental and physical)
10.尽量减少能量输出的倾向（精神和体能）
In a physical world governed by thermodynamics and competition for limited energy and resources, any biological organism that was wasteful with energy would be at a severe disadvantage for survival. Thus, we see in most instances that behavior is governed by a tendency to minimize energy usage when at all possible.
在一个由热力学和对有限能源和资源的竞争所支配的物理世界中，任何浪费能源的生物都将处于严重的生存劣势。因此，我们看到在大多数情况下，行为都受尽可能减少能源消耗的趋势所支配。
The Mental Models of Systems Thinking
系统思维的心理模型
1. Feedback Loops 1.反馈回路
All complex systems are subject to positive and negative feedback loops whereby A causes B, which in turn influences A (and C), and so on – with higher-order effects frequently resulting from the continual movement of the loop. In a homeostatic system, a change in A is often brought back into line by an opposite change in B to maintain the balance of the system, as with the temperature of the human body or the behavior of an organizational culture. Automatic feedback loops maintain a “static” environment unless and until an outside force changes the loop. A “runaway feedback loop” describes a situation in which the output of a reaction becomes its own catalyst (auto-catalysis).
所有复杂的系统都存在正反馈循环，即 A 引起 B，B 又影响 A（和 C），如此循环往复，循环的持续运动往往会产生更高阶的效应。在一个平衡系统中，A 的变化往往会通过 B 的相反变化而恢复正常，以维持系统的平衡，如人体的温度或组织文化的行为。自动反馈回路会维持一个 "静态 "环境，除非有外力改变回路。失控反馈回路 "是指反应的输出变成了自身的催化剂（自动催化）。
2. Equilibrium 2.平衡
Homeostasis is the process through which systems self-regulate to maintain an equilibrium state that enables them to function in a changing environment. Most of the time, they over or undershoot it by a little and must keep adjusting. Like a pilot flying a plane, the system is off course more often than on course. Everything within a homeostatic system contributes to keeping it within a range of equilibrium, so it is important to understand the limits of the range.
平衡是系统自我调节以维持平衡状态的过程，这种平衡状态使系统能够在不断变化的环境中发挥作用。在大多数情况下，系统会稍稍偏离或偏离平衡状态，因此必须不断进行调整。就像飞行员驾驶飞机一样，系统偏离航道的次数比在航道上的次数多。平衡系统内的一切都有助于将其保持在一定的平衡范围内，因此了解平衡范围的界限非常重要。
3. Bottlenecks 3.瓶颈
A bottleneck describes the place at which a flow (of a tangible or intangible) is stopped, thus constraining it from continuous movement. As with a clogged artery or a blocked drain, a bottleneck in the production of any good or service can be small but have a disproportionate impact if it is in the critical path. However, bottlenecks can also be a source of inspiration as they force us to reconsider if there are alternate pathways to success.
瓶颈指的是流量（有形或无形的流量）在某处停止，从而限制了流量的持续流动。就像动脉堵塞或下水道堵塞一样，任何商品或服务生产过程中的瓶颈可能很小，但如果处于关键路径上，就会产生不成比例的影响。然而，瓶颈也可以成为灵感的源泉，因为它迫使我们重新考虑是否有通往成功的其他途径。
4. Scale 4.规模
One of the most important principles of systems is that they are sensitive to scale. Properties (or behaviors) tend to change when you scale them up or down. In studying complex systems, we must always be roughly quantifying – in orders of magnitude, at least – the scale at which we are observing, analyzing, or predicting the system.
系统最重要的原则之一就是对比例敏感。当你放大或缩小它们时，它们的属性（或行为）往往会发生变化。在研究复杂系统时，我们必须始终粗略地量化--至少是数量级--我们观察、分析或预测系统的尺度。
5. Margin of Safety
5.安全边际
Similarly, engineers have also developed the habit of adding a margin for error into all calculations. In an unknown world, driving a 9,500-pound bus over a bridge built to hold precisely 9,600 pounds is rarely seen as intelligent. Thus, on the whole, few modern bridges ever fail. In practical life outside of physical engineering, we can often profitably give ourselves margins as robust as the bridge system.
同样，工程师们也养成了在所有计算中增加误差幅度的习惯。在一个未知的世界里，将一辆重达 9500 磅的公共汽车驶过一座精确承载 9600 磅的桥梁，很少被认为是明智之举。因此，总体而言，现代桥梁很少出现故障。在物理工程学之外的实际生活中，我们经常可以给自己留出与桥梁系统一样稳健的余地。
6. Churn 6.搅动
Churn is the silent killer of businesses. It’s the slow leak, the constant drip of customers slipping away, of users drifting off to find something new. It’s the attrition that eats away at your growth, that forces you to keep running just to stay in place. The thing about churn is that it’s often hidden. It’s not like a sudden crisis that grabs your attention. It’s a slow, quiet process that happens in the background.
流失是企业的无声杀手。它是一种缓慢的流失，是客户的不断流失，是用户为了寻找新东西而流失。流失侵蚀着企业的发展，迫使企业为了生存而不断地运转。流失的问题在于它往往是隐性的。它不像一场突如其来的危机会引起你的注意。它是一个缓慢、安静的过程，发生在背后。
Churn can present opportunity. Like a snake shedding its skin, replacing components of a system is a natural part to keeping it healthy. New parts can improve functionality.
变革带来机遇。就像蛇蜕皮一样，更换系统部件是保持系统健康的自然过程。新部件可以改善功能。
When we use this model as a lens, we see that new people bring new ideas, and counterintuitively, some turnover allows us to maintain stability. Replacing what is worn out also allows us to upgrade and expand our capabilities, creating new opportunities.
当我们使用这一模式作为视角时，我们会发现新人会带来新想法，而与之相反的是，一些人员更替会让我们保持稳定。更换旧的东西也能让我们提升和扩大能力，创造新的机会。
Some churn is inevitable. Too much can kill you.
有些流失是不可避免的。过多就会致命。
7. Algorithms 7.算法
Algorithms are recipes. A list of crisp, unambiguous steps that tell you how to get from point A to point B. But they’re more than just directions. Algorithms are if‑then machines for tuning out the noise and zeroing in on the signal. Have the specs been met? Follow the algorithm and find out. Thinking algorithmically means searching for processes that reliably spit out the results you want, like a vending machine dispensing the same candy bar every time someone punches in E4.
算法就是食谱。它列出了一系列清晰明确的步骤，告诉你如何从 A 点到达 B 点。算法是一种 "如果-那么 "机器，它能排除噪音，锁定信号。是否符合规格？跟着算法走就知道了。算法思维意味着寻找能够可靠地吐出你想要的结果的过程，就像自动售货机每次有人打 E4 键时，都会发出同样的糖果。
8. Critical mass 8.临界质量
Critical mass isn’t just a science term; it’s a guide for understanding that often things happen slowly and then all at once. It’s the moment when a system goes from sputtering along to explosive growth. Like a nuclear chain reaction, once you hit critical mass, the reaction becomes self-sustaining.
临界质量并不仅仅是一个科学术语，它还指导人们理解，事情往往是慢慢发生，然后一蹴而就。这是一个系统从蹒跚起步到爆炸式增长的时刻。就像核连锁反应一样，一旦达到临界质量，反应就会自我维持。
Through this lens we gain insight into the amount of material needed for a system to change from one state to another. Material can be anything from people and effort to raw material. When enough material builds up, systems reach their tipping point. When we keep going, we get sustainable change.
通过这一视角，我们可以深入了解一个系统从一种状态转变为另一种状态所需的材料数量。材料可以是人和努力，也可以是原材料。当积累了足够的材料，系统就会达到临界点。当我们继续前进时，我们就会获得可持续的变化。
Using critical mass as a lens for situations in which you want different outcomes helps you identify both the design elements you need to change and the work you need to put in.
将临界质量作为一种视角，来看待你希望得到不同结果的情况，有助于你确定需要改变的设计元素和需要投入的工作。
9. Emergence 9.出现
Nearly everything is an emergent effect— table, a space shuttle, even us— combinations of ingredients that come together in a specific way to create something new. Emergence is the universe’s way of reminding us that when we combine different pieces in new ways, we get results that are more than the sum of their parts, often in the most unexpected and thrilling ways.
几乎所有东西都是一种新兴效应--桌子、航天飞机，甚至是我们--各种成分以特定的方式组合在一起，创造出新的东西。新兴效应是宇宙提醒我们的一种方式，当我们以新的方式把不同的元素组合在一起时，我们得到的结果往往比它们各部分的总和还要多，而且往往是以最出人意料、最令人激动的方式。
Using this mental model is not about trying to predict emergent properties but rather acknowledging they are possible. There is no need to stick with what you know; mix it up and see what happens. Learn new skills, interact with new people, read new things.
使用这种心智模式并不是要试图预测突发特性，而是要承认它们是可能的。不必拘泥于你所知道的东西；混合起来，看看会发生什么。学习新技能，与新人交流，阅读新事物。
10. Irreducibility 10.不可还原性
Irreducibility is about essence. It’s the idea that some things can’t be broken down into smaller parts without losing what makes them tick. It’s the idea that not everything can be explained by looking at its components. Emergent properties arise from complex systems that can’t be predicted by studying the individual parts.
不可还原性与本质有关。它告诉我们，有些事物无法被分解成更小的部分，否则就会失去其本质。这就是，并非所有事物都能通过观察其组成部分来解释。复杂系统产生的新特性无法通过研究单个部分来预测。
Grappling with irreducibility requires a shift in thinking. Instead of trying to break things down, sometimes you have to zoom out. Look at the big picture. Embrace the complexity. Because some problems don’t have neat, modular solutions. They’re irreducibly messy.
处理不可还原性问题需要转变思维方式。有时，你必须放大视野，而不是试图分解事物。纵观全局。拥抱复杂性。因为有些问题并没有整齐划一的模块化解决方案。它们是不可复制的混乱。
Using irreducibility as a lens helps you focus on what you can change by understanding what really matters.
以不可还原性为视角，通过了解什么是真正重要的，帮助你专注于可以改变的事情。
11. Law of Diminishing Returns
11.收益递减法则
Diminishing returns is the idea that the easy wins usually come first. The more you optimize a system, the harder it gets to eke out additional improvements. Like squeezing juice from a lemon. The first squeeze is easy. The second takes a bit more work. By the tenth squeeze, you’re fighting for every last drop.
收益递减 "是指容易获得的收益通常会优先获得。系统优化得越多，就越难获得额外的改进。就像从柠檬中榨汁一样。第一次榨汁很容易。第二次就得多花点功夫。到了第十次榨汁时，你就要为每一滴汁液而战了。
When you’re a beginner, every bit of effort translates into significant gains. But as you level up, progress becomes more incremental. It takes more and more work to get better and better. That’s why going from good to great is often harder than going from bad to good.
当你还是初学者时，每一点努力都会带来显著的收获。但随着水平的提高，进步就会越来越大。要想变得越来越好，需要付出越来越多的努力。这就是为什么从优秀到卓越往往比从糟糕到优秀更难。
Understanding diminishing returns is crucial for allocating resources efficiently. You want to focus on the areas where you can get the biggest bang for your buck. Sometimes, that means knowing when to stop optimizing and move on to something else.
了解收益递减对于有效分配资源至关重要。你要把重点放在能够获得最大收益的领域。有时，这意味着要知道何时停止优化并转向其他方面。
The Mental Models of Numeracy
计算能力的心理模型
1. Distributions 1.分布情况
The normal distribution is a statistical process that leads to the well-known graphical representation of a bell curve, with a meaningful central “average” and increasingly rare standard deviations from that average when correctly sampled. (The so-called “central limit” theorem.) Well-known examples include human height and weight, but it’s just as important to note that many common processes, especially in non-tangible systems like social systems, do not follow this pattern. Normal distributions can be contrasted with power law, or exponential, distributions.
正态分布是一个统计过程，它导致了众所周知的钟形曲线的图形表示，其中有一个有意义的中心 "平均值"，而在正确取样时，该平均值的标准偏差越来越小（即所谓的 "中心极限 "定理）。(所谓的 "中心极限 "定理）。众所周知的例子包括人类的身高和体重，但同样重要的是，许多常见的过程，尤其是在社会系统等非有形系统中，并不遵循这种模式。正态分布可以与幂律分布或指数分布进行对比。
2. Compounding 2.复合
Compounding is the magic of exponential growth. It’s the idea that small, consistent gains can snowball into massive results over time. Like a tiny snowball rolling down a hill, picking up more and more snow until it’s an avalanche.
复利是指数增长的魔力。随着时间的推移，持续的微小收益会像滚雪球一样变成巨大的成果。就像一个小雪球从山上滚下来，积雪越来越多，直到形成雪崩。
Compounding requires us to think long- term about our knowledge, experiences, and relationships. It tells us that the small stuff we learn, the people we meet, and the connections we deepen, when reinvested into our lives, build up our fortunes in wisdom and relationships, not by chance, but by the steady, patient accumulation of efforts. The majority of success doesn’t happen by accident, and the lens of compounding illuminates the investments we need to make to get there.
复利要求我们对自己的知识、经验和人际关系进行长远思考。它告诉我们，当我们把学到的小知识、遇到的人和加深的联系重新投入到生活中时，我们的智慧和人际关系的财富就会积累起来，这不是偶然的，而是通过稳定、耐心的努力积累而成的。大多数成功都不是偶然发生的，复利的视角照亮了我们为达到目标而需要进行的投资。
Compounding is how you turn ordinary into extraordinary, one tiny gain at a time.
复利就是将平凡变为非凡的方法，每次都有微小的收获。
3. Sampling 3.取样
When we want to get information about a population (meaning a set of alike people, things, or events), we usually need to look at a sample (meaning a part of the population). It is usually not possible or even desirable to consider the entire population, so we aim for a sample that represents the whole. As a rule of thumb, more measurements mean more accurate results, all else being equal. Small sample sizes can produce skewed results.
当我们想要获取一个群体（指一组相同的人、事物或事件）的信息时，我们通常需要研究一个样本（指群体的一部分）。通常情况下，我们不可能甚至不希望考虑到整个人群，因此我们的目标是获得一个能代表整体的样本。根据经验，在其他条件相同的情况下，测量次数越多，结果越准确。样本量小会导致结果偏差。
4. Randomness 4.随机性
Though the human brain has trouble comprehending it, much of the world is composed of random, non-sequential, non-ordered events. We are “fooled” by random effects when we attribute causality to things that are actually outside of our control. If we don’t course-correct for this fooled-by-randomness effect – our faulty sense of pattern-seeking – we will tend to see things as being more predictable than they are and act accordingly.
尽管人脑难以理解，但世界上的许多事情都是由随机的、非顺序的、无序的事件组成的。当我们将因果关系归因于实际上不受我们控制的事物时，我们就被随机效应 "愚弄 "了。如果我们不纠正这种被随机效应 "愚弄 "的行为--我们错误的模式寻求意识--我们就会倾向于把事情看得比实际更可预测，并据此行事。
5. Regression to the Mean
5.回归均值
In a normally distributed system, long deviations from the average will tend to return to that average with an increasing number of observations: the so-called Law of Large Numbers. We are often fooled by regression to the mean, as with a sick patient improving spontaneously around the same time they begin taking an herbal remedy, or a poorly performing sports team going on a winning streak. We must be careful not to confuse statistically likely events with causal ones.
在一个正态分布的系统中，随着观察次数的增加，长期偏离平均值的情况往往会回归平均值：这就是所谓的大数定律。我们经常会被回归平均值的现象所迷惑，比如一个病人在开始服用草药的同时病情会自发好转，或者一个表现不佳的运动队会取得连胜。我们必须小心，不要把统计上可能发生的事件与因果关系混淆起来。
6. Multiplying by Zero 6.乘以零
Any reasonably educated person knows that any number multiplied by zero, no matter how large the number, is still zero. This is true in human systems as well as mathematical ones. In some systems, a failure in one area can negate great effort in all other areas. As simple multiplication would show, fixing the “zero” often has a much greater effect than does trying to enlarge the other areas.
任何受过合理教育的人都知道，任何数字乘以零，无论数字有多大，仍然是零。人类系统和数学系统都是如此。在某些系统中，一个领域的失败可能会抵消其他所有领域的巨大努力。正如简单的乘法所显示的那样，解决 "零 "的问题往往比努力扩大其他方面的影响要大得多。
7. Equivalence 7.等效
The introduction of algebra allowed us to demonstrate mathematically and abstractly that two seemingly different things could be the same. By manipulating symbols, we can demonstrate equivalence or inequivalence, the use of which led humanity to untold engineering and technical abilities. Knowing at least the basics of algebra can allow us to understand a variety of important results.
代数的引入使我们能够从数学上抽象地证明，两个看似不同的事物可能是相同的。通过对符号的操作，我们可以证明等价或不等价的关系，它的使用为人类带来了难以计数的工程和技术能力。至少了解代数的基础知识可以让我们理解各种重要的结果。
8. Surface Area 8.表面积
The surface area of a three dimensional object is the amount of space on the outside of it. Thus, the more surface area you have, the more contact you have with your environment. Sometimes a high surface area is desirable: Our lungs and intestines have a huge surface area to increase the absorption of oxygen and nutrients. Other times we want to reduce our exposure, such as limiting our internet exposure to reduce the attack surface.
三维物体的表面积是指物体外部的空间大小。因此，表面积越大，与环境的接触就越多。有时，表面积越大越好：我们的肺部和肠道就有很大的表面积，以增加氧气和营养物质的吸收。有时，我们希望减少接触面，比如限制接触互联网，以减少攻击面。
9. Global and Local Maxima
9.全局和局部最大值
The maxima and minima of a mathematical function are the largest and smallest values over its domain. Although there is one maximum value, the global maximum, there can be smaller peaks of value in a given range, the local maxima. Global and local maxima help us identify peaks, and if there is still potential to go higher or lower. It also reminds us that sometimes we have to go down to go back up.
数学函数的最大值和最小值是其域内的最大值和最小值。虽然存在一个最大值，即全局最大值，但在给定范围内也可能存在较小的峰值，即局部最大值。全局最大值和局部最大值可以帮助我们识别峰值，以及是否还有可能升高或降低。这也提醒我们，有时我们必须下降才能上升。
The Mental Models of Microeconomics
微观经济学的心理模型
1. Opportunity Costs 1.机会成本
Doing one thing means not being able to do another. We live in a world of trade-offs, and the concept of opportunity cost rules all. Most aptly summarized as “there is no such thing as a free lunch.”
做一件事意味着不能做另一件事。我们生活在一个权衡利弊的世界里，机会成本的概念支配着一切。最贴切的概括就是 "天下没有免费的午餐"。
2. Creative Destruction 2.创造性毁灭
Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter, the term “creative destruction” describes the capitalistic process at work in a functioning free-market system. Motivated by personal incentives (including but not limited to financial profit), entrepreneurs will push to best one another in a never-ending game of creative one-upmanship, in the process destroying old ideas and replacing them with newer technology. Beware getting left behind.
创造性破坏 "一词由经济学家约瑟夫-熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）提出，描述的是一个正常运作的自由市场体系中的资本主义过程。在个人动机（包括但不限于经济利益）的驱使下，企业家们会在一场永无止境的创造性单挑游戏中力争上游，并在此过程中摧毁旧观念，用更新的技术取而代之。谨防落后。
3. Comparative Advantage 3.比较优势
The Scottish economist David Ricardo had an unusual and non-intuitive insight: Two individuals, firms, or countries could benefit from trading with one another even if one of them was better at everything. Comparative advantage is best seen as an applied opportunity cost: If it has the opportunity to trade, an entity gives up free gains in productivity by not focusing on what it does best.
苏格兰经济学家大卫-李嘉图（David Ricardo）有一个不寻常、不直观的见解：两个人、公司或国家可以从相互贸易中获益，即使其中一方在所有方面都更胜一筹。比较优势最好被看作是一种应用机会成本：如果一个实体有机会进行贸易，它就会因为不专注于自己最擅长的领域而放弃免费的生产力收益。
4. Specialization (Pin Factory)
4.专业化（针厂）
Another Scottish economist, Adam Smith, highlighted the advantages gained in a free-market system by specialization. Rather than having a group of workers each producing an entire item from start to finish, Smith explained that it’s usually far more productive to have each of them specialize in one aspect of production. He also cautioned, however, that each worker might not enjoy such a life; this is a trade-off of the specialization model.
另一位苏格兰经济学家亚当-斯密强调了自由市场体系中专业化带来的优势。斯密解释说，与其让一群工人每人从头到尾生产一整套产品，不如让他们每人专门从事某一方面的生产，这样通常会更有成效。不过，他也提醒说，每个工人可能都不会享受这样的生活；这是专业化模式的一种权衡。
5. Seizing the Middle 5.抓住中间地带
In chess, the winning strategy is usually to seize control of the middle of the board, so as to maximize the potential moves that can be made and control the movement of the maximal number of pieces. The same strategy works profitably in business, as can be demonstrated by John D. Rockefeller’s control of the refinery business in the early days of the oil trade and Microsoft’s control of the operating system in the early days of the software trade.
在国际象棋中，制胜的策略通常是夺取棋盘中间的控制权，从而最大限度地增加可能走的棋步，控制最多棋子的移动。约翰-洛克菲勒（John D. Rockefeller）在石油贸易早期对炼油厂业务的控制，以及微软（Microsoft）在软件贸易早期对操作系统的控制，都证明了这一点。
6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights
6.商标、专利和版权
These three concepts, along with other related ones, protect the creative work produced by enterprising individuals, thus creating additional incentives for creativity and promoting the creative-destruction model of capitalism. Without these protections, information and creative workers have no defense against their work being freely distributed.
这三个概念以及其他相关概念保护了有进取心的个人所创作的创造性作品，从而为创造性提供了额外的激励，并促进了资本主义的创造性毁灭模式。如果没有这些保护，信息和创意工作者就无法抵御其作品被自由传播。
7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping
7.复式簿记
One of the marvels of modern capitalism has been the bookkeeping system introduced in Genoa in the 14th century. The double-entry system requires that every entry, such as income, also be entered into another corresponding account. Correct double-entry bookkeeping acts as a check on potential accounting errors and allows for accurate records and thus, more accurate behavior by the owner of a firm.
现代资本主义的奇迹之一是 14 世纪热那亚引入的簿记制度。复式记账法要求每一笔账目（如收入）都必须记入另一个相应的账户。正确的复式记账法可以防止潜在的会计差错，使记录准确无误，从而使公司所有者的行为更加准确。
8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)
8.效用（边际效用、递减效用、递增效用）
The usefulness of additional units of any good tends to vary with scale. Marginal utility allows us to understand the value of one additional unit, and in most practical areas of life, that utility diminishes at some point. On the other hand, in some cases, additional units are subject to a “critical point” where the utility function jumps discretely up or down. As an example, giving water to a thirsty man has diminishing marginal utility with each additional unit, and can eventually kill him with enough units.
任何物品增加一个单位的效用往往会随着规模的变化而变化。边际效用可以让我们了解增加一个单位的价值，而在生活的大多数实际领域，边际效用会在某一点上递减。另一方面，在某些情况下，增加一个单位会出现一个 "临界点"，在这个临界点上，效用函数会离散地向上或向下跳跃。举例来说，给一个口渴的人水，每增加一个单位，边际效用就会递减，如果增加足够多的单位，最终会导致他死亡。
9. Bribery 9.贿赂
Often ignored in mainstream economics, the concept of bribery is central to human systems: Given the chance, it is often easier to pay a certain agent to look the other way than to follow the rules. The enforcer of the rules is then neutralized. This principal/agent problem can be seen as a form of arbitrage.
贿赂的概念往往被主流经济学所忽视，但它却是人类制度的核心：如果有机会，付钱让某个代理人睁一只眼闭一只眼往往比遵守规则更容易。这样，规则的执行者就失去了作用。这种委托/代理问题可被视为一种套利形式。
10. Arbitrage 10.套利
Given two markets selling an identical good, an arbitrage exists if the good can profitably be bought in one market and sold at a profit in the other. This model is simple on its face, but can present itself in disguised forms: The only gas station in a 50-mile radius is also an arbitrage as it can buy gasoline and sell it at the desired profit (temporarily) without interference. Nearly all arbitrage situations eventually disappear as they are discovered and exploited.
如果有两个市场销售相同的商品，而在一个市场购买该商品并在另一个市场出售并获利，那么就存在套利。这种模式表面上很简单，但也可能以伪装的形式出现：方圆 50 英里内唯一的加油站也是一种套利，因为它可以不受干扰地购买汽油并（暂时）以所需的利润出售。几乎所有的套利情况最终都会因为被发现和利用而消失。
11. Supply and Demand 11.供应与需求
The basic equation of biological and economic life is one of limited supply of necessary goods and competition for those goods. Just as biological entities compete for limited usable energy, so too do economic entities compete for limited customer wealth and limited demand for their products. The point at which supply and demand for a given good are equal is called an equilibrium; however, in practical life, equilibrium points tend to be dynamic and changing, never static.
生物和经济生活的基本等式是必要物品的有限供应和对这些物品的竞争。正如生物实体争夺有限的可用能量一样，经济实体也在争夺有限的客户财富和有限的产品需求。某种商品的供需平衡点被称为均衡点；然而，在实际生活中，均衡点往往是动态变化的，绝非一成不变。
12. Scarcity 12.稀缺性
Game theory describes situations of conflict, limited resources, and competition. Given a certain situation and a limited amount of resources and time, what decisions are competitors likely to make, and which should they make? One important note is that traditional game theory may describe humans as more rational than they really are. Game theory is theory, after all.
博弈论描述了冲突、资源有限和竞争的情况。在特定情况下，在有限的资源和时间内，竞争者可能会做出哪些决定，又应该做出哪些决定？需要注意的一点是，传统博弈论可能会把人类描述得比实际更理性。博弈论毕竟是理论。
13. Mr. Market 13.市场先生
Mr. Market was introduced by the investor Benjamin Graham in his seminal book The Intelligent Investor to represent the vicissitudes of the financial markets. As Graham explains, the markets are a bit like a moody neighbor, sometimes waking up happy and sometimes waking up sad – your job as an investor is to take advantage of him in his bad moods and sell to him in his good moods. This attitude is contrasted to an efficient-market hypothesis in which Mr. Market always wakes up in the middle of the bed, never feeling overly strong in either direction.
市场先生是投资家本杰明-格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）在其开创性著作《聪明的投资者》（The Intelligent Investor）中提出的，代表了金融市场的瞬息万变。正如格雷厄姆所解释的，市场有点像一个喜怒无常的邻居，时而高兴，时而悲伤--作为投资者，你的工作就是在他心情不好的时候利用他，在他心情好的时候卖给他。这种态度与有效市场假说形成了鲜明对比，在有效市场假说中，市场先生总是在睡梦中醒来，无论在哪个方向都不会感觉过于强烈。
The Mental Models of Military and War
军事和战争的心理模式
1. Seeing the Front 1.看到前方
One of the most valuable military tactics is the habit of “personally seeing the front” before making decisions – not always relying on advisors, maps, and reports, all of which can be either faulty or biased. The Map/Territory model illustrates the problem with not seeing the front, as does the incentive model. Leaders of any organization can generally benefit from seeing the front, as not only does it provide firsthand information, but it also tends to improve the quality of secondhand information.
最有价值的军事战术之一就是在决策前 "亲临前线 "的习惯--而不是一味地依赖顾问、地图和报告，因为所有这些都可能是错误或有偏见的。地图/领土模型和激励模型都说明了看不到前线的问题。任何组织的领导者一般都能从看到前线中获益，因为这不仅能提供第一手信息，还往往能提高二手信息的质量。
2. Asymmetric Warfare 2.非对称战争
The asymmetry model leads to an application in warfare whereby one side seemingly “plays by different rules” than the other side due to circumstance. Generally, this model is applied by an insurgency with limited resources. Unable to out-muscle their opponents, asymmetric fighters use other tactics, as with terrorism creating fear that’s disproportionate to their actual destructive ability.
不对称模式在战争中的应用是，由于环境因素，一方似乎与另一方 "按不同的规则行事"。一般来说，资源有限的叛乱分子会采用这种模式。由于无法以武力战胜对手，非对称战士会使用其他战术，如恐怖主义，制造与其实际破坏能力不相称的恐惧。
3. Two-Front War 3.两线作战
The Second World War was a good example of a two-front war. Once Russia and Germany became enemies, Germany was forced to split its troops and send them to separate fronts, weakening their impact on either front. In practical life, opening a two-front war can often be a useful tactic, as can solving a two-front war or avoiding one, as in the example of an organization tamping down internal discord to focus on its competitors.
第二次世界大战是两线作战的典范。一旦俄罗斯和德国成为敌人，德国就不得不分兵两路，将其分别派往不同的战线，削弱其在任一战线的影响力。在实际生活中，开辟两线作战往往是一种有用的战术，解决两线作战或避免两线作战也是一种有用的战术，比如一个组织平息内部不和，集中精力对付竞争对手。
4. Counterinsurgency 4.反叛乱
Though asymmetric insurgent warfare can be extremely effective, over time competitors have also developed counterinsurgency strategies. Recently and famously, General David Petraeus of the United States led the development of counterinsurgency plans that involved no additional force but substantial additional gains. Tit-for-tat warfare or competition will often lead to a feedback loop that demands insurgency and counterinsurgency.
虽然非对称叛乱战争可能极为有效，但随着时间的推移，竞争对手也制定了反叛乱战略。最近，美国将军大卫-彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）领导制定了著名的反叛乱计划，该计划不涉及额外的武力，但却能获得大量额外收益。针锋相对的战争或竞争往往会导致要求叛乱和反叛乱的反馈循环。
5. Mutually Assured Destruction
5.相互保证毁灭
Somewhat paradoxically, the stronger two opponents become, the less likely they may be to destroy one another. This process of mutually assured destruction occurs not just in warfare, as with the development of global nuclear warheads, but also in business, as with the avoidance of destructive price wars between competitors. However, in a fat-tailed world, it is also possible that mutually assured destruction scenarios simply make destruction more severe in the event of a mistake (pushing destruction into the “tails” of the distribution).
有点自相矛盾的是，两个对手越强大，相互摧毁的可能性就越小。这种相互确保毁灭的过程不仅发生在战争中，如全球核弹头的发展，也发生在商业中，如避免竞争对手之间破坏性的价格战。然而，在一个 "肥尾 "的世界里，相互确保摧毁的方案也有可能只是在出现失误时使摧毁变得更加严重（将摧毁推向分布的 "尾部"）。
The Mental Models of Human Nature and Judgment
人性和判断力的心理模型
1. Trust 1.信任
Fundamentally, the modern world operates on trust. Familial trust is generally a given (otherwise we’d have a hell of a time surviving), but we also choose to trust chefs, clerks, drivers, factory workers, executives, and many others. A trusting system is one that tends to work most efficiently; the rewards of trust are extremely high.
从根本上说，现代社会是一个以信任为基础的社会。家人之间的信任通常是必然的（否则我们将很难生存下去），但我们也选择信任厨师、店员、司机、工厂工人、高管以及其他许多人。一个信任的系统往往能最有效地运作；信任的回报极高。
2. Bias from Incentives 2.激励机制带来的偏差
Highly responsive to incentives, humans have perhaps the most varied and hardest to understand set of incentives in the animal kingdom. This causes us to distort our thinking when it is in our own interest to do so. A wonderful example is a salesman truly believing that his product will improve the lives of its users. It’s not merely convenient that he sells the product; the fact of his selling the product causes a very real bias in his own thinking.
人类对诱因反应强烈，也许是动物界中诱因种类最多、最难理解的动物。这导致我们在符合自身利益的情况下扭曲自己的思维。一个绝妙的例子是，推销员真心相信他的产品能改善用户的生活。他销售产品并不仅仅是为了方便，他销售产品的事实会使他自己的思维产生非常真实的偏差。
3. Pavlovian Association 3.巴甫洛夫联想
Ivan Pavlov very effectively demonstrated that animals can respond not just to direct incentives but also to associated objects; remember the famous dogs salivating at the ring of a bell. Human beings are much the same and can feel positive and negative emotion towards intangible objects, with the emotion coming from past associations rather than direct effects.
伊万-巴甫洛夫（Ivan Pavlov）非常有效地证明，动物不仅能对直接刺激做出反应，还能对相关对象做出反应；还记得著名的狗听到铃声就流口水的故事吗？人类也是如此，对无形物体会产生积极或消极的情感，这种情感来自过去的联想而非直接影响。
4. Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy
4.羡慕嫉妒恨的倾向
Humans have a tendency to feel envious of those receiving more than they are, and a desire “get what is theirs” in due course. The tendency towards envy is strong enough to drive otherwise irrational behavior, but is as old as humanity itself. Any system ignorant of envy effects will tend to self-immolate over time.
人类有一种倾向，就是羡慕那些比自己得到更多的人，并渴望在适当的时候 "得到属于自己的东西"。妒忌的倾向强烈到足以驱动其他非理性行为，但它与人类本身一样古老。任何无视嫉妒效应的制度都会随着时间的推移而自我毁灭。
5. Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating
5.因喜欢/喜爱或厌恶/憎恨而扭曲的倾向
Based on past association, stereotyping, ideology, genetic influence, or direct experience, humans have a tendency to distort their thinking in favor of people or things that they like and against people or things they dislike. This tendency leads to overrating the things we like and underrating or broadly categorizing things we dislike, often missing crucial nuances in the process.
基于过去的联想、刻板印象、意识形态、遗传影响或直接经验，人类往往会扭曲自己的思维，倾向于自己喜欢的人或事，而反对自己不喜欢的人或事。这种倾向会导致我们对喜欢的事物评价过高，对不喜欢的事物评价过低或笼统归类，在此过程中往往会忽略一些关键的细微差别。
6. Denial 6.拒绝
Anyone who has been alive long enough realizes that, as the saying goes, “denial is not just a river in Africa.” This is powerfully demonstrated in situations like war or drug abuse, where denial has powerful destructive effects but allows for behavioral inertia. Denying reality can be a coping mechanism, a survival mechanism, or a purposeful tactic.
任何一个活得足够久的人都会意识到，正如俗话所说，"否认不仅仅是非洲的一条河流"。这一点在战争或吸毒等情况下得到了有力的证明，在这些情况下，否认具有强大的破坏作用，但却允许行为惯性。否认现实可以是一种应对机制、一种生存机制，也可以是一种有目的的策略。
7. Availability Heuristic
7.可用性启发式
One of the most useful findings of modern psychology is what Daniel Kahneman calls the Availability Bias or Heuristic: We tend to most easily recall what is salient, important, frequent, and recent. The brain has its own energy-saving and inertial tendencies that we have little control over – the availability heuristic is likely one of them. Having a truly comprehensive memory would be debilitating. Some sub-examples of the availability heuristic include the Anchoring and Sunk Cost Tendencies.
丹尼尔-卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）称之为 "可得性偏差 "或 "启发式"（Heuristic），这是现代心理学最有用的研究成果之一。大脑有其自身的节能和惯性倾向，我们几乎无法控制--可用性启发式很可能就是其中之一。拥有真正全面的记忆会让人崩溃。可用性启发式的一些子例子包括锚定倾向和沉没成本倾向。
8. Representativeness Heuristic
8.代表性启发式
The three major psychological findings that fall under Representativeness, also defined by Kahneman and his partner Tversky, are:
卡尼曼和他的搭档特沃斯基还定义了表征性的三大心理学发现：
a. Failure to Account for Base Rates
a.未核算基本费率
An unconscious failure to look at past odds in determining current or future behavior.
在决定当前或未来行为时，不自觉地不考虑过去的几率。
b. Tendency to Stereotype
b.定型化倾向
The tendency to broadly generalize and categorize rather than look for specific nuance. Like availability, this is generally a necessary trait for energy-saving in the brain.
倾向于笼统归纳和分类，而不是寻找具体的细微差别。与可用性一样，这通常是大脑节省能量的必要特征。
c. Failure to See False Conjunctions
c.看不出假连接词
Most famously demonstrated by the Linda Test, the same two psychologists showed that students chose more vividly described individuals as more likely to fit into a predefined category than individuals with broader, more inclusive, but less vivid descriptions, even if the vivid example was a mere subset of the more inclusive set. These specific examples are seen as more representative of the category than those with the broader but vaguer descriptions, in violation of logic and probability.
这两位心理学家最著名的研究成果是 "琳达测试"（Linda Test），该测试表明，与描述更广泛、更具包容性但不那么生动的个体相比，学生会选择描述更生动的个体，认为他们更有可能被归入一个预定义的类别，即使生动的例子只是更具包容性的集合中的一个子集。这些具体的例子被视为比那些描述较宽泛但模糊的例子更能代表该类别，这违反了逻辑和概率。
9. Social Proof (Safety in Numbers)
9.社会证明（人多安全）
Human beings are one of many social species, along with bees, ants, and chimps, among many more. We have a DNA-level instinct to seek safety in numbers and will look for social guidance of our behavior. This instinct creates a cohesive sense of cooperation and culture which would not otherwise be possible but also leads us to do foolish things if our group is doing them as well.
人类与蜜蜂、蚂蚁、黑猩猩等许多物种一样，都是社会性物种。我们有一种 DNA 层面的本能，那就是在数量中寻求安全，并寻求社会对我们行为的指导。这种本能创造了一种具有凝聚力的合作意识和文化，如果没有这种本能，这种合作和文化是不可能实现的，但如果我们的群体也在做傻事，这种本能也会引导我们去做傻事。
10. Narrative Instinct 10.叙事本能
Human beings have been appropriately called “the storytelling animal” because of our instinct to construct and seek meaning in narrative. It’s likely that long before we developed the ability to write or to create objects, we were telling stories and thinking in stories. Nearly all social organizations, from religious institutions to corporations to nation-states, run on constructions of the narrative instinct.
人类被恰当地称为 "会讲故事的动物"，因为我们有在叙事中构建和寻求意义的本能。很可能早在我们发展出书写或创造物品的能力之前，我们就已经在讲故事和用故事思考了。几乎所有的社会组织，从宗教机构、公司到民族国家，都是在叙事本能的基础上运行的。
11. Curiosity Instinct 11.好奇本能
We like to call other species curious, but we are the most curious of all, an instinct which led us out of the savanna and led us to learn a great deal about the world around us, using that information to create the world in our collective minds. The curiosity instinct leads to unique human behavior and forms of organization like the scientific enterprise. Even before there were direct incentives to innovate, humans innovated out of curiosity.
我们喜欢称其他物种为 "好奇"，但我们是最好奇的物种，这种本能引领我们走出大草原，了解我们周围的世界，并利用这些信息在我们的集体头脑中创造世界。好奇的本能导致了独特的人类行为和组织形式，比如科学事业。即使在有直接的创新激励机制之前，人类也是出于好奇心进行创新的。
12. Language Instinct 12.语言本能
The psychologist Steven Pinker calls our DNA-level instinct to learn grammatically constructed language the Language Instinct. The idea that grammatical language is not a simple cultural artifact was first popularized by the linguist Noam Chomsky. As we saw with the narrative instinct, we use these instincts to create shared stories, as well as to gossip, solve problems, and fight, among other things. Grammatically ordered language theoretically carries infinite varying meaning.
心理学家史蒂文-平克（Steven Pinker）将我们学习语法结构语言的 DNA 级本能称为 "语言本能"。语言学家诺姆-乔姆斯基（Noam Chomsky）首先推广了语法语言并非简单的文化产物这一观点。正如我们在叙述本能中所看到的，我们利用这些本能来创造共同的故事，以及闲聊、解决问题和战斗等。从理论上讲，语法有序的语言具有无限变化的意义。
13. First-Conclusion Bias
13.第一结论偏见
As Charlie Munger famously pointed out, the mind works a bit like a sperm and egg: the first idea gets in and then the mind shuts. Like many other tendencies, this is probably an energy-saving device. Our tendency to settle on first conclusions leads us to accept many erroneous results and cease asking questions; it can be countered with some simple and useful mental routines.
正如查理-芒格（Charlie Munger）所指出的那样，思维的运作有点像精子和卵子：第一个想法进入后，思维就会关闭。与许多其他倾向一样，这可能是一种节能装置。我们倾向于首先得出结论，这导致我们接受了许多错误的结果，并停止了提问。
14. Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples
14.从小样本中过度概括的倾向
It’s important for human beings to generalize; we need not see every instance to understand the general rule, and this works to our advantage. With generalizing, however, comes a subset of errors when we forget about the Law of Large Numbers and act as if it does not exist. We take a small number of instances and create a general category, even if we have no statistically sound basis for the conclusion.
以偏概全对人类来说很重要；我们不需要看到每一个事例就能理解一般规则，这对我们很有利。然而，当我们忘记了大数法则，并把它当作不存在时，以偏概全就会带来一系列错误。我们从少量的实例中归纳出一个普遍的类别，即使我们的结论并没有统计学上的依据。
15. Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies
15.相对满意度/痛苦倾向
The envy tendency is probably the most obvious manifestation of the relative satisfaction tendency, but nearly all studies of human happiness show that it is related to the state of the person relative to either their past or their peers, not absolute. These relative tendencies cause us great misery or happiness in a very wide variety of objectively different situations and make us poor predictors of our own behavior and feelings.
嫉妒倾向可能是相对满意倾向最明显的表现，但几乎所有关于人类幸福的研究都表明，嫉妒倾向与人相对于其过去或同龄人的状态有关，而不是绝对的。在各种客观不同的情况下，这些相对倾向会给我们带来巨大的痛苦或幸福，并使我们无法预测自己的行为和感受。
16. Commitment & Consistency Bias
16.承诺与一致性偏差
As psychologists have frequently and famously demonstrated, humans are subject to a bias towards keeping their prior commitments and staying consistent with our prior selves when possible. This trait is necessary for social cohesion: people who often change their conclusions and habits are often distrusted. Yet our bias towards staying consistent can become, as one wag put it, a “hobgoblin of foolish minds” – when it is combined with the first-conclusion bias, we end up landing on poor answers and standing pat in the face of great evidence.
正如心理学家们经常和著名的论证，人类有一种偏好，就是在可能的情况下信守先前的承诺，并与先前的自我保持一致。这种特质是社会凝聚力的必要条件：经常改变自己的结论和习惯的人往往不被信任。然而，正如一位学者所言，我们保持一致的偏好可能会成为 "愚蠢头脑中的妖魔鬼怪"--当它与第一结论偏好相结合时，我们最终会得出糟糕的答案，并在大量证据面前原地踏步。
17. Hindsight Bias 17.事后诸葛亮
Once we know the outcome, it’s nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever “it” is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. The hindsight bias explains why it’s wise to keep a journal of important decisions for an unaltered record and to re-examine our beliefs when we convince ourselves that we knew it all along.
一旦我们知道了结果，就几乎不可能在心理上让时光倒流。我们的叙述本能会让我们推断自己一直都知道结果（不管 "结果 "是什么），而事实上，我们往往只是在事后利用事前无法获得的信息进行推理。后见之明的偏差解释了为什么明智的做法是记录重要决定，以便不加改动地记录下来，并且在我们说服自己我们一直都知道的时候，重新审视我们的信念。
18. Sensitivity to Fairness
18.对公平的敏感性
Justice runs deep in our veins. In another illustration of our relative sense of well-being, we are careful arbiters of what is fair. Violations of fairness can be considered grounds for reciprocal action, or at least distrust. Yet fairness itself seems to be a moving target. What is seen as fair and just in one time and place may not be in another. Consider that slavery has been seen as perfectly natural and perfectly unnatural in alternating phases of human existence.
正义在我们的血管里根深蒂固。我们是公平的谨慎仲裁者，这从另一个角度说明了我们的相对幸福感。违反公平的行为会被视为采取对等行动的理由，或者至少是不信任的理由。然而，公平本身似乎是一个不断变化的目标。在一个时代和一个地方被视为公平和公正的东西，在另一个时代和另一个地方却未必如此。想想看，在人类生存的不同阶段，奴隶制被视为完全自然和完全不自然。
19. Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error)
19.高估行为一致性的倾向（基本归因错误）
We tend to over-ascribe the behavior of others to their innate traits rather than to situational factors, leading us to overestimate how consistent that behavior will be in the future. In such a situation, predicting behavior seems not very difficult. Of course, in practice this assumption is consistently demonstrated to be wrong, and we are consequently surprised when others do not act in accordance with the “innate” traits we’ve endowed them with.
我们往往会将他人的行为过多地归因于其与生俱来的特质，而不是情境因素，从而导致我们高估了这种行为在未来的一致性。在这种情况下，预测行为似乎并不困难。当然，在实践中，这一假设不断被证明是错误的，因此，当他人的行为与我们赋予他们的 "先天 "特质不一致时，我们会感到惊讶。
20. Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points)
20.应力的影响（包括断裂点）
Stress causes both mental and physiological responses and tends to amplify the other biases. Almost all human mental biases become worse in the face of stress as the body goes into a fight-or-flight response, relying purely on instinct without the emergency brake of Daniel Kahneman’s “System 2” type of reasoning. Stress causes hasty decisions, immediacy, and a fallback to habit, thus giving rise to the elite soldiers’ motto: “In the thick of battle, you will not rise to the level of your expectations, but fall to the level of your training.”
压力会引起心理和生理反应，并往往会放大其他偏差。几乎所有人类的心理偏差在压力面前都会变得更糟，因为身体会进入 "要么战斗，要么逃跑 "的反应状态，完全依赖本能，而没有丹尼尔-卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）提出的 "系统 2 "推理类型的紧急制动。压力会导致仓促决策、急功近利和习惯性倒退，从而催生出精英士兵的座右铭："在激烈的战斗中，你不会上升到你期望的水平，而是会下降到你训练的水平"。
21. Survivorship Bias 21.幸存者偏差
A major problem with historiography – our interpretation of the past – is that history is famously written by the victors. We do not see what Nassim Taleb calls the “silent grave” – the lottery ticket holders who did not win. Thus, we over-attribute success to things done by the successful agent rather than to randomness or luck, and we often learn false lessons by exclusively studying victors without seeing all of the accompanying losers who acted in the same way but were not lucky enough to succeed.
历史学--我们对过去的解释--的一个主要问题是，历史是由胜利者书写的。我们看不到纳西姆-塔勒布所说的 "沉默的坟墓"--没有中奖的彩票持有者。因此，我们将成功过度归因于成功者所做的事情，而不是随机性或运气。我们往往只研究胜利者，而看不到所有以同样方式行事但不够幸运成功的失败者，从而吸取错误的教训。
22. Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.)
22.想做某事的倾向（战斗/逃跑、干预、价值展示等）
We might term this Boredom Syndrome: Most humans have the tendency to need to act, even when their actions are not needed. We also tend to offer solutions even when we do not have knowledge to solve the problem.
我们可以称之为 "无聊综合症"：大多数人都有需要行动的倾向，即使他们的行动并不需要。我们也倾向于提供解决方案，即使我们并不具备解决问题的知识。
23. Falsification / Confirmation Bias
23.篡改/确认偏见
What a man wishes, he also believes. Similarly, what we believe is what we choose to see. This is commonly referred to as the confirmation bias. It is a deeply ingrained mental habit, both energy-conserving and comfortable, to look for confirmations of long-held wisdom rather than violations. Yet the scientific process – including hypothesis generation, blind testing when needed, and objective statistical rigor – is designed to root out precisely the opposite, which is why it works so well when followed.
一个人希望什么，他就会相信什么。同样，我们相信什么，我们就选择看到什么。这通常被称为确认偏差。这是一种根深蒂固的心理习惯，既省力又舒适，即寻找对长久以来的智慧的证实，而不是违背。然而，科学过程--包括假设的产生、必要时的盲测和客观严谨的统计--的目的恰恰是为了根除相反的情况，这也是为什么科学过程在遵循时会如此有效的原因。
The modern scientific enterprise operates under the principle of falsification: A method is termed scientific if it can be stated in such a way that a certain defined result would cause it to be proved false. Pseudo-knowledge and pseudo-science operate and propagate by being unfalsifiable – as with astrology, we are unable to prove them either correct or incorrect because the conditions under which they would be shown false are never stated.
现代科学事业是在证伪原则的指导下运行的：如果一种方法的表述方式能够使某个确定的结果被证明是错误的，那么这种方法就是科学的。伪知识和伪科学通过不可证伪的方式运作和传播--就像占星术一样，我们无法证明其正确与否，因为从来没有说明在什么条件下它们会被证伪。
