中国央行就低利率问题向欧洲银行机构寻求建议

China’s central bank has asked European financial institutions for advice on dealing with the effects of low interest rates, as the world’s second-largest economy risks slipping into a prolonged period of low inflation.
中国央行已向欧洲金融机构征询应对低利率影响的建议。目前全球第二大经济体正面临陷入长期低通胀的风险。

The People’s Bank of China has sent “ad hoc” requests to at least two European banks this year for insights on the impact of low to zero interest rates on the banking systems in their home countries, according to people familiar with the requests.
据知情人士透露，中国人民银行今年已向至少两家欧洲银行发出"特别"请求，希望了解低至零利率对其所在国银行体系的影响。

The move suggests the Chinese central bank is concerned about a multiyear deflationary environment, which would threaten bank profits and financial stability — similar to what many European countries experienced last decade.
此举表明中国央行正担忧多年通缩环境可能威胁银行利润和金融稳定——这与许多欧洲国家在上个十年所经历的情况类似。

“This kind of request is precautionary,” said one of the people who received a request from the PBoC. “You need to know how to manage [zero rates].”
"这类请求具有预防性质，"一位收到央行问询的人士表示，"你需要知道如何管理(零利率政策)。"

Chinese policymakers have unleashed multiple rate cuts over the past year, slashing the benchmark policy rate to 1.4 per cent from 1.8 per cent and the one-year benchmark lending rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3 per cent in an effort to stimulate sluggish domestic demand amid slowing economic growth.
过去一年间，中国政策制定者已实施多轮降息，将基准政策利率从 1.8%下调至 1.4%，一年期基准贷款利率降低 0.5 个百分点至 3%，旨在通过刺激疲软的国内需求来应对经济增长放缓。

“From the recent moves by the PBoC you can see that its mindset is changing,” said Richard Xu, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, adding that the central bank was “[paying] attention to the negative impact of low rates”.
摩根士丹利分析师徐然表示："从中国人民银行近期的举措可以看出其思维模式正在转变"，并补充称央行正"关注低利率带来的负面影响"。

Some policy advisers to the PBoC are concerned that further cuts would have a diminishing effect in boosting credit demand or consumption. The Chinese economy has been teetering on the edge of a deflationary spiral, with the inflation rate in negative territory for the past four months.
部分央行政策顾问担忧，进一步降息对提振信贷需求或消费的边际效应将递减。中国经济已徘徊在通缩螺旋边缘，过去四个月通胀率持续处于负值区间。

The PBoC’s readout of its second quarter monetary policy meeting, released last week, said the Chinese economy “still faces difficulties and challenges, such as insufficient domestic demand, persistent low prices, and various hidden risks”.
中国人民银行上周发布的二季度货币政策会议纪要指出，中国经济"仍面临内需不足、价格持续低位、各类隐性风险等困难挑战"。

The central bank also hinted at a less aggressive rate cutting stance, tweaking the phrasing of its policy outlook from “cutting [the] reserve requirement ratio and rates at appropriate time” to “implement the policy with more flexibility in the intensity and pace”. Analysts understood the change to suggest lower chances of a rate cut in the near term.
央行还暗示将采取不那么激进的降息立场，将其政策展望的措辞从"适时降低存款准备金率和利率"调整为"灵活把握政策力度和节奏"。分析师认为这一变化意味着短期内降息的可能性降低。

The people familiar with the PBoC’s messages described them as open-ended requests for information about how governments and banks navigated low interest rates to avoid damaging their financial systems and broader economies.
了解央行消息的人士表示，这些询问是开放式的，旨在了解各国政府和银行如何在低利率环境下运作，以避免损害其金融体系和整体经济。

European countries underwent a decade of extremely low interest rates between the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, hitting bank profitability.
在 2008 年金融危机与新冠疫情之间的十年间，欧洲国家经历了极低利率时期，这严重影响了银行盈利能力。

The PBoC request highlights concern among some economists of a long period of insufficient domestic demand, similar to the ‘lost decades’ in Japan, which endured an extended period of stagnating living standards and weak growth for more than two decades from the early 1990s.
中国人民银行的这一咨询凸显出部分经济学家对国内需求长期不足的担忧，类似于日本经历的"失去的几十年"——从 1990 年代初开始的二十多年里，日本生活水平停滞不前，经济增长乏力。

“It shows they are learning and getting ready,” said an economist at one of the European institutions that received a request.
"这表明他们正在学习并做好准备，"收到咨询请求的某家欧洲机构的一位经济学家表示。

The person added that PBoC still had some room for manoeuvre, given that China’s benchmark one-year loan prime rate remained at 3 per cent.
该人士补充称，鉴于中国一年期贷款市场报价利率仍维持在 3%，中国人民银行仍有政策操作空间。

Chinese financial authorities have expressed alarm over falling bond yields, warning that regional lenders were exposed to interest rate risks of the kind that preceded the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.
中国金融监管部门已对债券收益率持续走低发出警告，提示地区性银行正面临类似 2023 年硅谷银行倒闭前的利率风险。

China’s 30-year bond yield has dipped from 2.42 per cent to 1.86 per cent in the past year, while the 10-year bond has shed more than 0.5 percentage points to 1.65 per cent.
过去一年间，中国 30 年期国债收益率从 2.42%降至 1.86%，10 年期国债收益率则下跌逾 0.5 个百分点至 1.65%。

Market participants have suggested investors seeking safer, higher-yielding assets in expectation of lower economic growth could push bond yields down further. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
市场参与者指出，由于投资者预期经济增长放缓而寻求更安全、收益率更高的资产，可能会进一步压低债券收益率。债券收益率与价格呈反向变动。

One person at a European asset manager said that it had received a request from Chinese state banks and insurers in the first quarter of 2025 about how to mitigate the impact of low rates.
一位欧洲资产管理公司人士透露，2025 年第一季度中国国有银行和保险公司曾就如何缓解低利率影响向其征询建议。

Their response, which included suggestions to increase purchases of higher-risk assets such as equities and lower-fee products such as exchange traded funds, was later briefed to PBoC via the state banks, the person said.
知情人士称，欧洲银行的反馈建议包括增持股票等高风险资产以及交易所交易基金等低费率产品，这些建议后来通过国有银行向中国人民银行进行了汇报。

The PBoC declined to respond to a request for comment.
中国人民银行未回应置评请求。