China eyes ‘birth-friendly society’ with population stimulus next on the agenda
中国瞄准“生育友好型社会”，人口刺激政策将成为下一个议程
Subsidies and tax cuts are set to be rolled out as part of efforts to build a ‘birth-friendly society’ amid China’s looming demographic crisis
补贴和减税将作为应对中国迫在眉睫的人口危机，建设“生育友好型社会”的努力的一部分推出
发布时间：2024 年 10 月 29 日下午 5:10 更新：2024 年 10 月 29 日下午 6:39
China has pledged to establish a childbirth subsidy system and offer further tax cuts for parents in an effort to build a “birth-friendly society” amid a looming demographic crisis.
中国承诺建立生育补贴制度，并为父母提供进一步的减税，以应对日益严重的人口危机，努力建设“生育友好型社会”。
中央政府还将增强医疗、住房和休假福利，以减轻家庭抚养孩子的成本，因为生育率下降威胁到世界第二大经济体的前景，这些政策是国务院周一发布的一揽子政策。
While different levels of cash incentives were introduced at the local level to stimulate births in the past few years, the central government said it is drafting a detailed national-level plan, with some analysts forecasting an expenditure of up to 500 billion yuan (US$70 billion) per year.
近年来，虽然地方层面推出了不同级别的现金激励措施以刺激出生率，但中央政府表示正在制定详细的国家级计划，一些分析师预测每年的支出将高达 5000 亿元人民币（700 亿美元）。
旨在创造一个“尊重和支持生育”的氛围，随着国家迅速老龄化，中国内阁的指令还承诺扩大对父母的所得税扣除，并将辅助生殖服务纳入国家保险计划。
Economic and social influences all contribute to a persistently low fertility rate, making any efforts to reverse this trend inherently challenging
经济和社会影响共同导致生育率持续低迷，使得任何逆转这一趋势的努力本质上都充满挑战
袁鑫，南开大学
Families with multiple children would also be given privileges in home purchasing, including higher public housing loan limits and larger homes when applying for affordable housing, it added.
有多个孩子的家庭在购房时也将获得特权，包括更高的公共住房贷款限额和在申请经济适用房时获得更大住房。
As part of a broader stimulus package to revive the economy, Beijing could initiate a programme to encourage childbirth with a budget of around 250 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan per year, economists from Nomura said on Monday.
作为刺激经济的更广泛计划的一部分，北京可能会启动一项鼓励生育的计划，预算约为每年 2500 亿至 5000 亿元人民币，野村的经济学家在周一表示。
The directive is an attempt to integrate various support measures from local governments and establish a unified and nationwide system for supporting families, said Yuan Xin, a professor of demographics at the School of Economics at Nankai University.
该指令旨在整合地方政府的各种支持措施，并建立一个统一的全国性家庭支持系统，南开大学经济学院的人口学教授袁鑫表示。
Last week, the government of Shangyou county in the eastern Jiangxi province said that it would offer one-time payments of 7,000 yuan (US$982) for a second child and 13,000 yuan for a third.
上周，江西省东部的上饶县政府表示，将为第二个孩子提供一次性支付 7,000 元（982 美元），为第三个孩子提供 13,000 元。
But Yuan said such measures would be unable to yield immediate results.
但袁表示，这些措施无法立即见效。
China’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022, according to estimates from the China Population and Development Research Centre, with no official figure available.
根据中国人口与发展研究中心的估计，中国的总生育率在 2022 年降至 1.09，目前没有官方数据可用。
The fertility rate refers to the number of children that would be born to each woman if she lived to the end of her child-bearing years. A population needs a rate of 2.1, known as the replacement level, to maintain its size.
生育率是指每位女性如果活到生育年龄结束时将会生育的孩子数量。一个人口需要达到 2.1 的生育率，称为更替水平，以维持其规模。
“Factors such as a shrinking population base, weakened willingness to have children, delayed marriage and childbearing, an increase in single and childless individuals, and economic and social influences all contribute to a persistently low fertility rate, making any efforts to reverse this trend inherently challenging,” he said.
“人口基础缩小、生育意愿减弱、婚育推迟、单身和无子女个体增加，以及经济和社会影响等因素都导致生育率持续低迷，使得任何逆转这一趋势的努力本质上都面临挑战，”他说。
And a user on microblogging platform Weibo commented that the measures were like if “you’re buying a Ferrari, and the government is giving you a coupon worth 100 yuan”.
一位在微博平台上的用户评论说，这些措施就像“你在买一辆法拉利，而政府给你一张价值 100 元的优惠券”。
根据教育部上周发布的年度报告，中国的人口问题首先影响到幼儿园，去年幼儿园数量下降超过 5%。
Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row to 1.4 billion, representing a decline of over 2 million.
去年，中国的人口连续第二年下降至 14 亿，减少了超过 200 万。
Only 9 million births were reported in China in 2023, the lowest figure since records began in 1949.
2023 年中国仅报告了 900 万出生人数，这是自 1949 年开始记录以来的最低数字。
Thousands of Chinese kindergartens close as falling birth rate takes its toll
随着出生率下降，数千所中国幼儿园关闭
Last year saw the number of kindergartens fall by over 5 per cent while the number of children enrolling dropped by more than 11 per cent
In 2023 the number of kindergartens fell by 14,808 to 274,400 – the second consecutive annual decline – according to an annual report by the Ministry of Education.
Meanwhile, the number of children enrolled in kindergarten declined for a third consecutive year – dropping by 11.55 per cent, or 5.35 million, last year to 40.9 million, according to the report.
The number of primary schools also dropped by 5,645 to 143,500 in 2023, a 3.8 per cent fall.
The decline reflects a broader demographic shift in China – where both birth rates and total population continue to dwindle – posing a serious threat to future economic growth, which is already slowing.
Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row, to 1.4 billion, a decline of over 2 million. Only 9 million births were reported in China in 2023, the lowest figure since records started in 1949.
02:19
Elderly Chinese students fill empty kindergartens as birth rate falls