Trading the metagame 交易元游戏

Participating in crypto markets during the thrill stages of a bull-run is isomorphically more similar to playing a modern video game than it is to investing.
在牛市激动人心的阶段参与加密市场，与其说是投资，不如说更像是玩现代电子游戏。

Most competitive modern video games have an ever-evolving metagame. The metagame can be described as subset of the game’s basic strategy and rules which is required to play the game at a high level.
大多数现代竞技视频游戏都有一个不断演变的元游戏。元游戏可以被描述为游戏基本策略和规则的一个子集，这是高水平玩游戏所必需的。

The meta  游戏策略

In League of Legends, the metagame changes frequently as characters, items and abilities are made stronger or weaker by the developers. Sometimes assassins are extremely strong, sometimes the optimal way to play the game is to play a particular subgroup of extremely strong “jungle” champions. Since certain characters are strong, other characters that are good in response to these meta characters also become popular as a “counter” strategy since they are well-suited to exploiting the weaknesses of these over-powered characters.
在《英雄联盟》中，元游戏（metagame）经常发生变化，因为开发者会增强或削弱角色、物品和技能。有时刺客类角色非常强大，有时最佳游戏方式是选择一组特别强大的“打野”英雄。由于某些角色很强，其他能够有效应对这些元角色（meta characters）的角色也会作为“克制”策略而流行起来，因为它们非常适合利用这些过于强大的角色的弱点。

I don’t play Magic: The Gathering but the internet tells me the metagame is dictated by the strong/popular decks, the banned/restricted card list and the best responses to those strong and popular decks.
我不玩《魔法：聚会》，但互联网告诉我，metagame 由强大的/受欢迎的卡组、禁限卡列表以及对那些强大且受欢迎的卡组的最佳应对策略所决定。

All other variables equal, knowing and utilizing the metagame gives the player the maximum chance to win the game.
在其他变量相同的情况下，了解并利用元游戏（metagame）能给玩家带来赢得游戏的最大机会。

In the bull-market-thrill-crypto video game, there’s a metagame too. Knowing and understanding the metagame is not required to score some wins, but pretty important to continually win when playing at the highest level.
在牛市兴奋的加密视频游戏中，也存在一种元游戏。了解和理解元游戏并不是取得一些胜利的必要条件，但对于在最高水平上持续获胜来说非常重要。

Ethereum killers  以太坊杀手

Sometimes the metagame is obvious and enduring: throughout 2021, there has been a very clear “Ethereum killers” metagame. Alternative smart-contract platforms have remained one of the best trades of 2021. The “SolLunAvax” metagame sustained & strengthened virtually all year, and their popularity caused this metagame trend to flow down into obscure or fringe alternative L1s too. You could say things like “which L1s have not pumped yet relative to market average?” to participate in this metagame, without even really knowing what that L1 does or if it is actually a good protocol.
有时候，元游戏是显而易见的且持久的：整个 2021 年，存在一个非常明显的“以太坊杀手”元游戏。替代智能合约平台一直是 2021 年最好的交易之一。“SolLunAvax”元游戏几乎全年持续并增强，它们的流行也导致这一元游戏趋势向下渗透到不起眼或边缘的替代 L1s 中。你可以说类似“哪些 L1 相对于市场平均水平还没有上涨？”的话来参与这个元游戏，甚至不需要真正了解那个 L1 是做什么的，或者它是否真的是一个好的协议。

Since Ethereum’s fees are exclusionary and broken, this metagame has been durable. Crypto markets are a video game and market participants want to play: they don’t like to be idle during a bull-run. They want to make moves and capture opportunity. Ethereum is too expensive to be active for lots of people. Until that changes, this metagame is likely to remain strong.
由于以太坊的费用具有排他性且存在问题，这种元游戏一直很持久。加密市场就像一个电子游戏，市场参与者想要参与其中：他们不喜欢在牛市期间无所事事。他们想要采取行动并抓住机会。对于很多人来说，以太坊的费用太高，无法频繁活动。在这种情况改变之前，这种元游戏很可能会保持强劲。

Crazy Caterpillars & Dizzy Ducks
疯狂毛毛虫和晕眩鸭子

Some metagames are fleeting and unsustainable.
一些元游戏是短暂且不可持续的。

For a while in 2021, new NFT mints were a popular metagame. The popularity and success of Crypto Punks inspired projects like Hashmasks and Bored Apes; in turn their success inspired a mimetic trend of market participants confidently searching for “the next big profile-pic NFT series”. These mints were over-subscribed, causing hyped secondary markets. People that missed out on the mint were fomo-buying ‘rares’ after the mint. The profits for early minters further inspired more confidence in participating in these mints. Players begun to see minting these projects as “risk-free”.
在 2021 年的一段时间里，新的 NFT 铸造成为了一种流行的元游戏。Crypto Punks 的流行和成功启发了一些项目，如 Hashmasks 和 Bored Apes；反过来，它们的成功又引发了市场参与者自信地寻找“下一个大热的头像 NFT 系列”的模仿趋势。这些铸造活动供不应求，导致二级市场被炒作。错过铸造的人在铸造后因恐惧错过而购买‘稀有品’。早期铸造者的利润进一步激发了参与这些铸造的信心。玩家开始将铸造这些项目视为“无风险”。

Of course, none of these projects were the next BAYC. They were uninspired trend-followers at best and cash-grab scams at worst. Real, sober secondary market demand was virtually zero. Market dilution increased since it was lucrative to be an NFT PFP founder and mint-to-flip was seen as a risk-free trade, thus the best use of capital. Of course, if the best use of capital is to be the mint-to-flip buyer, buyers are focused there and there’s much less money hunting secondary markets. The market quickly reveals that in 99% of cases the person buying on the secondary market is the loser. Secondary market buyers dry up even further, which then makes the mint-to-flip buyer the loser. And suddenly the trend has cannibalized itself with an unsustainable incentive structure.
当然，这些项目都不是下一个 BAYC。它们充其量只是缺乏创意的跟风者，最糟糕的情况下则是敛财骗局。真正的、清醒的二级市场需求几乎为零。市场稀释增加了，因为成为 NFT PFP 创始人并进行 mint-to-flip 被视为无风险交易，因此是资本的最佳用途。当然，如果资本的最佳用途是成为 mint-to-flip 的买家，买家就会集中在那里，而寻找二级市场的资金就少得多。市场很快揭示出，在 99%的情况下，在二级市场上购买的人是输家。二级市场买家进一步枯竭，这使得 mint-to-flip 的买家也成为输家。突然之间，这一趋势通过不可持续的激励结构自我蚕食。

The biggest winners of this trend were those aware of both the metagame as well as the incentive structure behind the metagame.
这一趋势的最大赢家是那些既了解元游戏又清楚元游戏背后激励结构的人。

Evolution of the metagame
メタゲーム的演变

If you go through the last couple of years, the metagame has evolved quite a lot.
如果你回顾过去几年，元游戏已经发生了很大的演变。

In summer 2020, there was DeFi summer, categorised by lots of yield farming and eventually food coins. Towards the end of 2020 there was a Bitcoin dominance run, which then turned into a revival of “blue chip” DeFi with the market being led by Aave. There was an NFT boom, with NiftyGateway sales being extremely profitable. There was a shitcoin season, alt L1 season, and another NFT season but this time dominated by OpenSea. At some point there was an Art Blocks season and a “very old NFTs are good” trend. Alt L1 season evolved into alt L1 ecosystem season with BSC, Avax and Luna coins having their own flourishing ecosystems to varying degrees. Sol-coins did not do so well. Ohm forks eventually became meta. You get the idea.
在 2020 年夏天，有了 DeFi 之夏，以大量的收益耕作和最终的食品币为特征。到了 2020 年底，比特币主导了一波行情，随后转变为“蓝筹”DeFi 的复兴，市场由 Aave 引领。NFT 出现了一波热潮，NiftyGateway 的销售极为盈利。接着是垃圾币季节，替代性 L1 季节，以及另一波 NFT 季节，但这次由 OpenSea 主导。某个时候还有 Art Blocks 季节和“非常老的 NFT 是好的”趋势。替代性 L1 季节演变为替代性 L1 生态系统季节，BSC、Avax 和 Luna 币各自拥有不同程度繁荣的生态系统。Sol-coins 表现不佳。Ohm 分叉最终成为元趋势。你明白这个意思。

You’ll notice that it was possible to win the crypto video game by ignoring this changing metagame altogether. You didn’t need to be early to Dani coins to have made good investments in 2021. But, to play at the highest level and maximise wins, you had to identify and exploit the hot-ball-of-money rotations between assets at least a few times.
你会注意到，完全忽略这种不断变化的元游戏也可以赢得加密视频游戏。你不需要早早参与 Dani coins 就能在 2021 年做出好的投资。但是，要在最高水平上玩并最大化胜利，你必须至少几次识别并利用资产之间热钱流动的轮换。

Maybe more importantly, the biggest losers were formed when players misidentified the current metagame as something else. Anyone that believed the early-2021 metagame was actually a long-term investment thesis ended up holding ROOK from February 2021 through to a -80%. Or, they over-invested into 4th-tier NFT PFP trends that became illiquid and irrelevant.
也许更重要的是，最大的输家是在玩家错误识别当前元游戏为其他东西时形成的。任何认为 2021 年初的元游戏实际上是一个长期投资论点的人，最终从 2021 年 2 月开始持有 ROOK，亏损达-80%。或者，他们过度投资于第四梯队的 NFT PFP 趋势，这些趋势变得缺乏流动性和无关紧要。

Usually, metagames start with a long-term investment thesis transitioning to popularity, and end in mimetic exuberance.
通常，元游戏开始于一个长期投资论点转变为流行，最终以模仿性的狂热结束。

Is knowing the metagame enough?
了解元游戏就足够了吗？

I think for some market participants, simply following the changing metagame is good enough. Especially for those that are able to control their euphoria or are natural skeptics. I’ve seen plenty of people able to spot a trend, jump in, jump out with decent profits and move on without turning their trade into a church.
我认为对于一些市场参与者来说，仅仅跟随不断变化的元游戏就足够了。特别是对于那些能够控制自己的兴奋情绪或天生就是怀疑论者的人。我见过很多人能够发现趋势，加入其中，带着不错的利润退出，然后继续前行，而不会把他们的交易变成一种信仰。

Yet, for most people, understanding the incentive dynamics behind a metagame is probably way more important.
然而，对大多数人来说，理解元游戏背后的激励机制可能要重要得多。

If you’re playing League of Legends, you can do well by knowing that a champion called Nocturne is the strongest character in the meta at the moment. You can simply play it until it’s no longer in the meta, and have a slight natural edge from the character’s strength.
如果你在玩《英雄联盟》，你可以通过了解当前版本中最强的角色是 Nocturne 来表现得更好。你可以一直使用它，直到它不再是版本主流，从而凭借角色的强度获得一点天然优势。

But, if you understand why Nocturne is strong in the meta, and the changes that happened in the game to cause that boost in strength, you’ll be able to identify the scenarios to exploit those strengths, the pitfalls to avoid, and generally how to maximise your chances to win with this unfair advantage. You’ll also be the first to know when this advantage is no longer applicable (by changes in the game), because you know why the meta exists.
但是，如果你理解为什么 Nocturne 在当前 meta 中很强，以及游戏中发生的变化导致其实力提升，你将能够识别出利用这些优势的场景，避免陷阱，并且通常知道如何利用这种不公平的优势最大化你的胜算。你也会第一个知道这种优势何时不再适用（由于游戏中的变化），因为你明白为什么 meta 存在。

In crypto, understanding the dynamics of why or how a metagame works is much more important than understanding it in League of Legends.
在加密货币领域，理解元游戏为何或如何运作的动态远比在《英雄联盟》中理解它更为重要。

Sol DeFi vs Avax DeFi
Sol DeFi 对 Avax DeFi

A good example of why understanding the metagame’s incentive structure is important is a simple comparison between Avax Defi and Sol Defi.
一个很好的例子说明了为什么理解元游戏的激励结构很重要，那就是对 Avax Defi 和 Sol Defi 的简单比较。

From a high-level, these two things can look the same. The hypothetical investment thesis is virtually identical.
从高层次来看，这两件事看起来可能是一样的。假设的投资论点几乎是相同的。

• Avalanche is an alternative smart contract platform, an Ethereum killer, and has been a top performer this year. Native AVAX DeFi is a chance to be early to DeFi in a new ecosystem. If Avalanche is the eventual winning L1, AVAX DeFi is a great buy.
  Avalanche 是一个替代性的智能合约平台，是 Ethereum 的竞争对手，并且今年表现优异。本土 AVAX DeFi 是一个在新生态系统中尽早参与 DeFi 的机会。如果 Avalanche 最终成为胜出的 L1，那么 AVAX DeFi 是一个很好的买入选择。

• Solana is an alternative smart contract platform, an Ethereum killer, and has been a top performer this year. Native SOL DeFi is a chance to be early to DeFi in a new ecosystem. If Solana is the eventual winning L1, SOL DeFi is a great buy.
  Solana 是一个替代性的智能合约平台，被认为是 Ethereum 的杀手，今年表现最佳。原生 SOL DeFi 是一个在新生态系统中尽早参与 DeFi 的机会。如果 Solana 最终成为胜出的 L1，那么 SOL DeFi 是一个很好的买入选择。

So, why did Avalanche coins make so many CT traders rich and Solana coins just stole your SOL? Aren’t they just the same thing, betting on DeFi on an alternative to Ethereum?
那么，为什么 Avalanche 币让这么多 CT 交易者致富，而 Solana 币却只是偷走了你的 SOL？它们不都是同样的东西，都是在 Ethereum 的替代品上押注 DeFi 吗？

Well, being “early” is not about buying the coin on the first possible day. Being “early” is about buying the coin at a valuation that is lower than its potential.
嗯，“早”并不是指在第一个可能的日子购买这种币。“早”是指以低于其潜力的估值购买这种币。

The Solana ecosystem had it’s own “very high FDV” sub-metagame, whereby the only people that were really early were the people that funded the seed round.
Solana 生态系统有自己的“非常高的 FDV”子元游戏，只有那些在种子轮融资中参与的人才是真正的早期投资者。

Much of the Solana ecosystem’s tokenomics benefited founders and financiers, but meant that the projects were valued as though they had already succeeded and many projects needed to grow into these valuations.
Solana 生态系统的大部分代币经济学对创始人和金融家有利，但这意味着这些项目的估值仿佛它们已经成功，许多项目需要成长到这些估值水平。

The popular Avalanche coins were much more community orientated and started at reasonable valuations, meaning that as Avalanche grew its userbase, you were able to capture the upside from that growth driving valuations.
流行的 Avalanche 代币更加以社区为导向，并且起步时的估值合理，这意味着随着 Avalanche 用户群的增长，你能够从这种增长推动的估值上涨中获利。

It’s a simple example, but shows how understanding the dynamics behind the metagame could have allowed someone burned on soldefi to be more confident on avaxdefi.
这是一个简单的例子，但它展示了理解元游戏背后的动态如何能让在 soldefi 上受挫的人对 avaxdefi 更有信心。

Watching winners & solving problems
观察赢家并解决问题

Usually the crypto meta is rooted in successes. Something works well, and it inspires new founders and investors.
通常，加密货币的元游戏植根于成功。某件事运作良好，就会激发新的创始人和投资者的灵感。

Ethereum has been a huge success. It has inspired thousands of founders and enabled a dynamic and interesting on-chain ecosystem. The success of Ethereum has created multi-millionaires out of believers and supporters.
以太坊取得了巨大的成功。它激励了成千上万的创始人，并促成了一个充满活力且有趣的链上生态系统。以太坊的成功让信徒和支持者成为了千万富翁。

Often, the crypto meta is also enabled because of failures.
通常，加密货币的元游戏也是因为失败而得以实现的。

Ethereum has failed at scaling in a way that allows the chain to be used by regular people. It’s prohibitively expensive to use on L1 and the L2s are very new and have their own UX issues.
以太坊在扩展方面失败了，无法让普通人使用这条链。在 L1 上使用成本高得令人望而却步，而 L2s 还很新，自身也存在用户体验问题。

The “Alt L1” metagame is rooted in Ethereum’s success and enabled because of its failures.
“Alt L1”元游戏植根于以太坊的成功，并因其失败而得以实现。

“Winners” are a good catalyst for a meta. People are inspired by the success of a project and they want to look for things that are similar. Founders decide they can build something like that, but better! Investors want to be early for the next version of this great idea.
“赢家”是一个元游戏的良好催化剂。人们受到一个项目成功的启发，他们希望寻找类似的东西。创始人决定他们可以打造类似但更好的东西！投资者希望在下一个伟大创意的早期阶段就参与进来。

Axie Infinity’s success created a tidal-wave of capital flows into gamefi. Not only did AXS become one of the best performers of the year, but other thematically related assets also started to perform well, even if they did not have the same metrics or usage to back up their valuations. It spawned an entire metagame. Gamefi became trendy.
Axie Infinity 的成功引发了资金大量流入 gamefi 领域。不仅 AXS 成为年度表现最佳的项目之一，其他与该主题相关的资产也开始表现良好，即使它们没有相同的指标或使用数据来支撑其估值。这催生了一个全新的元游戏。Gamefi 变得流行起来。

Problems and failures are also a great catalyst for a meta. Everyone feels the pain of the problem and trivially sees a world that would be better if that problem were solved. Thus, they rush to be early to buying the solutions. Often the winning solution is not yet clear, but that’s to be expected, because it’s never clear when you are early.
问题和失败也是元游戏的重要催化剂。每个人都能感受到问题的痛苦，并且很容易想象如果这个问题得到解决，世界会变得更好。因此，他们争相抢先购买解决方案。通常，获胜的解决方案尚不明确，但这是意料之中的，因为在早期阶段永远不会明确。

Watching the winners & locating the problems in crypto can be a way of identifying potential metagames in advance.
观察赢家并找出加密货币中的问题可以是一种提前识别潜在元游戏的方式。

Community > problems  社区 > 问题

Sometimes the meta is simply enabled because of the community’s like-minded desire to be early. New market participants simply refuse to buy the bags of rich OGs and instead opt to create their own value.
有时候，元游戏之所以能够流行，仅仅是因为社区有着相似的渴望，想要抢占先机。新进入市场的参与者根本不愿意购买富有老玩家的包袱，而是选择创造自己的价值。

Some trends in DOGE, SHIB, BSC, BAYC, AVAX, GME, etc can all be seen as having elements of this. They see that something was successful and they have simply decided “we aren’t playing their game, it’s our turn to be rich”.
DOGE、SHIB、BSC、BAYC、AVAX、GME 等的某些趋势都可以看作是具有这种元素的体现。他们看到某些东西取得了成功，于是简单地决定“我们不玩他们的游戏，现在轮到我们致富了”。

Perhaps every generation opts out of the previous generation’s ponzi and instead decides to create its own.
也许每一代人都会选择退出上一代的庞氏骗局，反而决定创造自己的骗局。

Non-narrative metas  非叙事元游戏

There are metagames within crypto that do not rely on the crypto-investment asset narrative too.
加密货币中也存在不依赖于加密投资资产叙事的元游戏。

• There was a period of time where FTX market listings were virtually always bullish, since it was an injection of attention in the middle of a bull market onto a new asset.
  有一段时间，FTX 市场上市几乎总是看涨的，因为在牛市中这是一个对新资产注入关注的行为。

• For a while, there have been people front-running Binance and Coinbase coin listings. They figure out, either through insider info, an API leak, or whatever method which coins are going to be added to a major exchange, they buy that asset in advance and they sell that asset upon listing.
  一段时间以来，有人一直在抢先 Binance 和 Coinbase 的币种上市。他们通过内部信息、API 泄露或其他方法，找出哪些币种将被添加到主要交易所，然后提前购买这些资产，并在上市时卖出这些资产。

• Follow-trading certain VCs has had it’s moments of being meta. As long as you don’t follow Barry.
  跟随某些风投进行交易有时会显得很“元”。只要你不跟随 Barry。

• On-chain analysis and whale wallet watching has had moments of meta.
  链上分析和鲸鱼钱包观察有时会带来元游戏的时刻。

• There is also a meta in presales whereby bad projects can get funding by all-but guaranteeing profit to their early backers. They raise money at a tiny valuation, offer extremely short vesting, choose investors with big audiences and host an IDO at 20x the valuation that early backers were granted. They get funded, seed buyers are virtually guaranteed a profit, and early backers with large audiences get to say “here’s a thing I am an invested in” as a disclosure (which IMO completely misrepresents the imbalance in risk between their investment and their audiences’ potential investment but I guess is legal). In this meta, founders win and early backers probably win. The meta is weighted against everybody else.
  在预售中也存在一种元游戏，劣质项目可以通过几乎保证早期支持者的利润来获得资金。他们以极低的估值筹集资金，提供极短的锁定期，选择拥有大量观众的投资者，并在早期支持者获得估值的 20 倍时举办 IDO。他们获得了资金，种子买家几乎可以保证获利，而拥有大量观众的早期支持者可以说“这是我投资的一个项目”作为披露（在我看来，这完全歪曲了他们的投资与他们的观众潜在投资之间的风险不平衡，但我猜这是合法的）。在这种元游戏中，创始人获胜，早期支持者可能也获胜。这种元游戏对其他所有人都不利。

Using the meta  使用元游戏

As with video games, using the metagame in crypto gives the player the maximum chance to win. Identifying the metagame allows you to figure out the easiest and most lucrative opportunities at any given time.
就像电子游戏一样，在加密货币中使用元游戏（metagame）能给玩家带来最大的获胜机会。识别元游戏可以让你在任何时候找出最简单、最有利可图的机会。

A trader called TheDogKennel or something created a portfolio of every single dog coin after the early Doge pumps. He identified there could possibly be a dog-coin meta, and turned $15,000 into multiple million dollars. Possibly the smartest dumb idea I’ve seen all year.
一位名叫 TheDogKennel 或类似名字的交易者，在早期的 Doge 热潮后，创建了一个包含所有狗币的投资组合。他发现可能存在一种狗币的元趋势，并将 15,000 美元变成了数百万美元。这可能是我今年见过的最聪明的蠢主意。

Traders that saw “defi-summer” style dynamics on Avax were able to buy-and-hold the best native Avax dex from sub-1 penny to over $4 because the understood the meta and the dynamics behind the meta.
那些在 Avax 上看到“defi-summer”风格动态的交易者能够以不到 1 美分的价格买入并持有最好的本地 Avax dex，直到价格超过 4 美元，因为他们理解了元游戏及其背后的动态。

Identifying the meta and the dynamics behind the meta are probably the most important skills of any shitcoin trader. If you understand the dynamics and incentives, you can figure out whether a metagame has some positive-feedback loop or sustained vector of growth. Or you can figure out if it’s a wildfire rapidly burning out of natural resources leading only to its own demise.
识别元游戏及其背后的动态可能是任何垃圾币交易者最重要的技能。如果你理解动态和激励机制，你就能判断一个元游戏是否具有某种正反馈循环或持续的增长方向。或者，你可以判断它是否像一场野火，迅速耗尽自然资源，最终导致自身的灭亡。

Of course, identifying the meta early, buying the meta coins and selling them into meta exuberance is the ideal and obvious way to use the meta. In general, the most successful altcoiners I’ve met have used the metagame to increase their value-holdings over time (ie. trade meta to stack BTC or ETH).
当然，尽早识别元趋势，购买元趋势币并在元趋势狂热时卖出是使用元趋势的理想且显而易见的方式。一般来说，我见过的最成功的山寨币玩家都利用元游戏来随着时间增加他们的价值持有量（即通过交易元趋势来积累 BTC 或 ETH）。

But the meta is useful for a handful of other reasons too.
但元游戏还有其他一些有用的原因。

Sometimes you can simply see that you missed the current meta and use that info to exit positions that are out of meta to preserve value, or just take a break and restore mental energy. As the meta and attention shifts to new things, capital bleeds out of previous metas. People sell the last meta they fomo’d for the next one. It’s a video game. Players want to play, they don’t want to be idle.
有时候，你可以清楚地看到自己错过了当前的 meta，并利用这一信息退出不符合 meta 的头寸以保值，或者干脆休息一下，恢复精神能量。随着 meta 和关注点转向新事物，资金会从之前的 meta 中流出。人们会卖掉他们之前因为 FOMO 而买入的最后一个 meta，去追逐下一个 meta。这就像一个电子游戏。玩家想要参与，他们不想闲着。

Traders use the meta to exit/rebalance longer-term positions. If you had a big position in some token, which suddenly became meta, even if you have a long-term thesis around the asset, it might be a good idea sometimes to rotate out of it at exuberance and rotate back in when the meta has moved on to whatever is trendy next to compound your position size.
交易者利用元游戏来退出或重新平衡长期头寸。如果你持有某个代币的大量头寸，而它突然成为元游戏的焦点，即使你对该资产有长期的看法，有时在市场狂热时退出，并在元游戏转向下一个流行趋势时重新进入，可能是一个好主意，以增加你的头寸规模。

The meta can be used to help decide which assets to leverage trade on derivatives, or to construct pair-trades around. Longing the meta or best-performing assets when you think the general markets look good rather than longing majors has rewarded traders hugely in 2021, where longing SOL and LUNA from the June depths hugely rewarded you vs longing BTC and ETH.
元游戏可以用来帮助决定在衍生品上杠杆交易哪些资产，或者围绕哪些资产构建对冲交易。当你认为整体市场看起来不错时，做多元游戏或表现最好的资产，而不是做多主流资产，这在 2021 年为交易者带来了巨大的回报，比如从 6 月的低点做多 SOL 和 LUNA，相比做多 BTC 和 ETH，回报要高得多。

Many traders are stuck using different metagames that are not currently reality. Lots of people have spent the year charting Bitcoin Dominance charts and modeling potential dominance runs because they are referencing a metagame model based on 2017. Other traders have spent the year relying on the Stock2Flow model to inform their trades. Identifying these mental models/metas can help you think more independently about what is happening and identify biases in thinking.
许多交易者陷入使用与当前现实不符的不同元游戏中。很多人今年都在绘制比特币主导地位图表并建模潜在的主导地位走势，因为他们参考的是基于 2017 年的元游戏模型。其他交易者则全年依赖 Stock2Flow 模型来指导他们的交易。识别这些心理模型/元游戏可以帮助你更独立地思考正在发生的事情，并识别思维中的偏见。

The worst thing you can do is run head-first into a metagame that is reaching exuberance. So, if you already thought 5 or 6 times about taking a trade, weeks/months have passed, and you have finally plucked up the courage to do it: you’re probably too late. It doesn’t feel risky anymore, which means it’s probably maximally risky.
最糟糕的事情就是一头扎进一个正在达到狂热状态的元游戏中。所以，如果你已经对进行一笔交易思考了5到6次，过了几周或几个月，终于鼓起勇气去做：你可能已经太晚了。感觉不再有风险，这意味着风险可能已经达到最大。

Usually when the meta is common knowledge amongst all participants, the meta is already shifting to something else.
通常，当所有参与者都普遍了解元游戏时，元游戏已经开始转向其他方向。