China’s Homeowners and Banks Are Trapped in a Mortgage Mess
中国的房主和银行陷入了抵押贷款的困境

In Shanghai, a finance worker must clear her overdue mortgage or her bank will press charges. In Hangzhou, a couple have delayed having a baby and are relying on their parents to help pay their home loan, while another man is forced to sell two properties at a 1 million yuan ($138,000) loss after his repayments spiraled.
在上海，一名金融工作者必须清偿她拖欠的抵押贷款，否则她的银行将提起诉讼。在杭州，一对夫妇推迟了要孩子的计划，依靠父母帮助支付他们的房屋贷款，另一名男子在还款金额不断增加后被迫以 100 万元（13.8 万美元）的亏损出售两处房产。

As China’s property downturn grinds into a fourth year and house prices continue their downward march, an increasing number of mortgages are slipping underwater, placing fresh financial strain on both households and banks.
随着中国房地产市场的低迷已持续第四年，房价继续下跌，越来越多的抵押贷款陷入负资产，给家庭和银行带来新的财务压力。

Now, with income growth slowing and job losses increasing, people are questioning whether it’s worth the struggle to pay a loan on a property that’s in negative equity.
现在，随着收入增长放缓和失业人数增加，人们开始质疑是否值得为一处处于负资产价值的房产支付贷款而努力。

The specter of negative equity is also concerning banks. At least two lenders raised the issue at a recent meeting with China’s financial regulators, who pledged to look into it, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as the discussions were private.
负资产的阴影也让银行感到担忧。据知情人士透露，在最近与中国金融监管机构的会议上，至少有两家贷款机构提出了这个问题，监管机构承诺会对此进行调查，这些知情人士称，由于讨论是私密的，他们不愿透露身份。

Lucy Liu’s bank is threatening court action after she missed four installments on a 3 million yuan mortgage for her Shanghai home. It’s an abrupt change from three years ago when she bought the property for 4.2 million yuan with a belief that house prices would only go up. Since then, the value of the house has sunk below what she owes, she’s lost her high-paying job and she’s settled for one with 80% less salary.
刘玉的银行威胁要采取法律行动，因为她在上海的房屋的 300 万元按揭已经拖欠了四期。这与三年前她以为房价只会上涨，以 420 万元购买该房产的情况形成了鲜明对比。自那时以来，房屋价值已经跌破了她的负债额，她失去了高薪工作，现在接受了一份薪水减少 80%的工作。

“I’ve lost hope,” said the 32-year-old financial worker, explaining she fears the price will continue to fall, leading to a bigger loss. “If I stop repaying I may only lose the down payment, but if I continue paying I may lose more.”
“我已经失去了希望，”这位 32 岁的金融工作者说道，她担心价格会继续下跌，导致更大的损失。“如果我停止还款，可能只会损失首付款，但如果继续支付，可能会损失更多。”

While a lack of timely data on underwater mortgages and defaults makes it difficult to quantify the problem, proxy figures suggest Liu isn’t alone in struggling to pay her home loan. Household debt hit a new high of 145% of disposable income per capita at end-2023, according to Bloomberg compiled data, considerably higher than 126% in the UK and 97% in the US.
尽管缺乏关于水下抵押贷款和违约的及时数据使问题难以量化，但代理数据表明，刘并不是唯一在努力偿还房屋贷款的人。根据彭博编制的数据，2023 年底家庭债务占人均可支配收入的比例达到了 145%，远高于英国的 126%和美国的 97%。

The nation’s banks are already grappling with balance sheets eroded by rising bad loans and depressed margins. In March, Bank of Communications Co. said its property bad loan ratio for money lent to developers jumped to almost 5% at the end of last year from 2.8% a year earlier, bigger rivals Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. saw its bad loans from residential mortgages rise 9.6% to 27.8 billion yuan, while Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. reported a 4.7% increase in soured residential mortgage loans last year.
该国的银行已经在应对因不良贷款上升和利润率下降而受损的资产负债表。三月份，交通银行表示，其向开发商放贷的不良贷款比率从去年年底的 2.8%上升到了近 5%，而规模更大的竞争对手中国工商银行的住房抵押贷款不良贷款增长了 9.6%，达到了 278 亿元人民币，而中国农业银行去年报告称，其不良住房抵押贷款增长了 4.7%。

And the list of disheartening data is growing: The residential mortgage delinquency ratio jumped to the highest in four years as of late 2023, according to Changjiang Securities Co. chief economist Wu Ge; the number of foreclosed properties listed for legal auction hit a record in 2023, according to data from China Index Holdings; banks issued 24.7 billion yuan worth of financial instruments backed by non-performing mortgages in 2023, the most ever, according to cn-abs.com data compiled by Bloomberg.
令人沮丧的数据清单不断增加：根据长江证券首席经济学家吴戈的说法，截至 2023 年底，住房按揭逾期比率跃升至四年来的最高水平；根据中国指数控股的数据，2023 年被列入法律拍卖的被查封物业数量创下纪录；根据彭博社编制的 cn-abs.com 数据，银行于 2023 年发行了价值 2470 亿元人民币的以不良按揭为支撑的金融工具，创历史新高。

‘People Getting Burned’ “人们受伤”

Some homeowners on the brink of defaulting on their mortgages have been forced to tap family savings and push back life plans. Peter, who lost his job at a fintech firm in Hangzhou last year, has to rely on his parents to repay his mortgage. His wife stayed employed, but with a big pay cut.
一些濒临无法偿还抵押贷款的房主不得不动用家庭储蓄并推迟生活计划。彼得去年在杭州一家金融科技公司失业，不得不依靠父母偿还抵押贷款。他的妻子仍在工作，但薪水大幅减少。

“We planned to have a baby last year but gave up, we have no confidence to raise a child,” said the 32-year-old.
“去年我们计划要孩子，但放弃了，我们没有信心养育孩子，”这位 32 岁的人说。

To be sure, banks can still recover at least part of the loans by putting the collateralized homes up for sale in case of defaults, and enforce on the borrowers’ other assets to recoup loan losses.
可以肯定的是，银行在发生违约时仍然可以通过出售抵押房屋来至少部分收回贷款，并对借款人的其他资产进行强制执行以弥补贷款损失。

But the stakes are high for homeowners should they miss payments: they’ll be dragged into a lawsuit filed by their bank and have their home foreclosed and eventually sold at a 20% to 30% discount. China doesn’t yet have a nationwide personal bankruptcy law in place, so defaulters will be held accountable for their arrears in most cases and end up with a damaged credit record that may have long-lasting impact on their future financing eligibility.
但是如果业主错过付款，他们将面临高额风险：他们将被银行起诉，并且他们的房屋将被收回，最终以 20%至 30%的折扣出售。中国目前尚未制定全国性个人破产法律，因此大多数情况下拖欠者将对拖欠款项负责，并最终导致信用记录受损，可能对他们未来的融资资格产生长期影响。

Some are trying to avoid those consequences, even if it means taking a big financial hit and learning a bitter lesson.
有些人正试图避免那些后果，即使这意味着承受巨大的财务损失并吸取痛苦的教训。

Carl, a former property consultant in Hangzhou, had to sell two of his homes at a total loss of 1 million yuan to repay his mortgages, one of which went underwater. After the sale, he still had to pay another 110,000 yuan on the property to clear the debt. At one point in 2022, he was sitting on a monthly mortgage bill of over 30,000 yuan, almost triple his wage, forcing him to use consumer loans to cover the debt.
卡尔是杭州的前房地产顾问，不得不以总计 100 万元的亏损出售他的两套房屋来偿还抵押贷款，其中一套房屋被抵押。销售后，他仍需支付另外 11 万元清偿债务。2022 年某个时候，他每月的抵押贷款账单超过 3 万元，几乎是他工资的三倍，迫使他使用消费贷款来偿还债务。

“I still feel scared looking back,” said the 28-year-old, who also had to postpone buying a car for his family. “I didn’t expect such a severe consequence nor the harsh lesson — I’m a living example of people getting burned. It feels like my life journey was delayed a few years due to the property cycle.”
“回头看，我仍然感到害怕，”这位 28 岁的人说道，他还不得不推迟为家人购买汽车。“我没有料到会有如此严重的后果，也没有想到会受到如此严厉的教训 — 我就是那些被烧伤的人的活生生例子。由于房地产周期的原因，我的人生旅程感觉延迟了几年。”

He still considered himself lucky as compared with his friends — one couple had to sell their home with a 2 million yuan loss to pay off their mortgage. That’s equivalent to about seven years worth of their savings. Some of his former colleagues are still struggling with monthly mortgage payment of around 80,000 yuan, far outstripping their income, he said.
与他的朋友相比，他仍然觉得自己很幸运 — 一对夫妇不得不以 200 万元的亏损出售房屋来偿还抵押贷款。这相当于他们大约七年的储蓄。他说，他的一些前同事仍在为每月约 8 万元的抵押贷款付款而苦苦挣扎，远远超过他们的收入。

‘Treading a Tightrope’ “走钢丝”

China’s recent attempt to breathe life into the property market by trimming downpayment requirements is also being questioned.
中国最近试图通过减少首付要求来振兴房地产市场的举措也受到质疑。

“Reducing the downpayment ratio is treading a tightrope,” said Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “If the action fails to revive demand, lowering the downpayment ratio will increase the risk of falling into negative equity. New buyers taking 15% downpayment mortgage will have less buffer against price fall.”
澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团大中华区首席经济学家杨宇光表示：“降低首付比例就像走钢丝一样危险。如果此举未能刺激需求，降低首付比例将增加陷入负资产的风险。采取 15%首付按揭的新购房者将面临价格下跌的缓冲减少。”

New homebuyers took out 528 billion yuan in mortgages last year on property worth 791 billion yuan or 150% of outstanding loans, according to Yeung. That markup is the lowest among mortgage borrowers over the past 12 years and means a 33% home price drop could push them into negative equity, Yeung estimated.
去年，新购房者在总值 7910 亿元的房产上贷款 5280 亿元，相当于未偿贷款的 150%，Yeung 表示。这种涨价是过去 12 年来抵押贷款人中最低的，Yeung 估计，如果房价下跌 33%，他们可能会陷入负资产。

China’s new home prices have dropped 5.7% as of April from the 2021 high, while existing home prices are down 11.4%, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expects property prices to drop at least another 30% in major cities before stabilizing, according to a note this week.
根据彭博计算基于官方数据，中国 4 月份的新房价格已经比 2021 年高点下降了 5.7%，而二手房价格下降了 11.4%。杰富瑞金融集团预计，本周的一份报告指出，在主要城市，房地产价格至少还会下跌 30% 才会趋于稳定。

Some homeowners, though, are trying to stick it out — for now. Chenchen, who works at a private property firm in Shanghai, has no choice but to continue paying her mortgage so her child can enroll in the school nearby. The 38-year-old hasn’t been paid for five months and her home value has fallen about 40% to 4.5 million yuan.
一些房主尽管如此，仍在努力坚持下去 — 至少目前是这样。在上海一家私人房地产公司工作的陈晨没有选择，只能继续支付她的抵押贷款，以便让孩子能够就读附近的学校。这位 38 岁的女士已经五个月没有拿到工资，她的房屋价值已经下跌约 40%，降至 450 万元人民币。

Joan, a property agent in Shanghai, said her savings would only last two years at most if she keeps repaying her mortgage. She hasn’t been able to sell any homes since April and doesn’t see the property market picking up until 2027, meaning no stable income for the next two years.
上海的房地产经纪人琼表示，如果继续偿还抵押贷款，她的储蓄最多只能维持两年。自四月以来，她一直无法出售任何房屋，并且认为房地产市场要到 2027 年才会回暖，意味着未来两年没有稳定收入。

“I’ll just have to play it by ear,” she said. “I have no other options anyway.”
“我只能见机行事了，”她说。“反正我也没有其他选择。”