英伟达无法摆脱人工智能支出担忧的阴影

By 经过

Aug. 29, 2024 5:30 am ET
2024 年 8 月 29 日 5:30 上午ET

The surge in Nvidia’s market cap has put the company under an intense spotlight. Photo: Ann Wang/Reuters
英伟达市值的飙升使该公司受到了强烈的关注。照片： Ann Wang/路透社

Nvidia NVDA -9.53%decrease; red down pointing triangle has made life at the top look easy. But staying there is going to be anything but.
英伟达 NVDA下跌-9.53% ；红色向下的三角形让顶层的生活看起来很轻松。但留在那里将一事无成。

The chip maker, which has gone from a niche videogame component supplier to a $3 trillion enterprise in just a few years, put up another round of strong results Wednesday. Its now-dominant data center segment increased revenue to $26.3 billion—more than 2½ times what that business generated a year earlier. Adjusted operating income for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $19.9 billion. Nvidia’s overall top and bottom lines beat Wall Street’s targets, as did the company’s forecast for the current period ending in October.
这家芯片制造商在短短几年内就从一家小众视频游戏组件供应商发展成为一家价值 3 万亿美元的企业，周三公布了又一轮强劲业绩。其目前占据主导地位的数据中心业务收入增至 263 亿美元，是该业务一年前收入的 2.5 倍多。该季度调整后营业收入同比增长一倍多，达到 199 亿美元。英伟达的整体营收和利润超过了华尔街的目标，该公司对截至 10 月份的当前期间的预测也是如此。

But the magnitude of those beats was smaller than what Nvidia has been delivering over the past year, as its business exploded on booming demand for artificial-intelligence capabilities from the world’s largest tech giants. Expectations from investors have blown up right along with it. Nvidia’s projected revenue of $32.5 billion for the current quarter ending in October was 2% ahead of Wall Street’s targets; the company’s projection for the same period last year beat analysts’ consensus by 28%, according to FactSet data.
但这些增长的幅度小于英伟达过去一年的表现，因为全球最大的科技巨头对人工智能能力的需求旺盛，英伟达的业务呈爆炸式增长。投资者的期望也随之飙升。 Nvidia 预计截至 10 月份的本季度营收为 325 亿美元，比华尔街目标高出 2%； FactSet 数据显示，该公司去年同期的预测比分析师的共识高出 28%。

Also, the new products that Nvidia is building to stay well ahead of the competition are rising significantly in complexity—weighing a bit on the company’s gross margin line. But even that is a bit of a nitpick; Nvidia’s gross margin of 75.1% for the most recent quarter was down 3 points from three months earlier, but well above the 65% the company has averaged over the past four years. And even at 75%, Nvidia is commanding a higher gross margin than all but one of the other companies on the PHLX Semiconductor Index, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
此外，英伟达为在竞争中保持领先地位而开发的新产品的复杂性显着上升，这对公司的毛利率造成了一定影响。但即使这样也有点挑剔。英伟达最近一个季度的毛利率为 75.1%，比三个月前下降了 3 个百分点，但远高于该公司过去四年的平均毛利率 65%。根据标准普尔全球市场情报 (S&P Global Market Intelligence) 的数据，即使毛利率为 75%，英伟达的毛利率也高于 PHLX 半导体指数中除一家其他公司外的所有公司。

Nvidia is doing fine, in other words. The stock slipped about 7% in after-hours trading Wednesday, following the company’s report and conference call. That is a minor haircut for a company that has seen its market cap increase more than fivefold in the past 18 months. But that increase has put Nvidia under an intense spotlight befitting a company valued on par with Microsoft MSFT -1.85%decrease; red down pointing triangle while generating less than half of the software giant’s annual revenue. The chip company with the funny name has quickly become a household name; Wednesday’s earnings call even spawned watch parties among investors and fans eager to track the action.
换句话说，英伟达做得很好。在该公司发布报告和召开电话会议后，该股周三盘后交易中下跌约 7%。对于一家在过去 18 个月内市值增长了五倍多的公司来说，这是一个小幅度的削减。但这种增长使英伟达受到了强烈的关注，这与微软 MSFT的估值相当，下跌 -1.85 % ；红色向下的三角形同时产生的收入还不到这家软件巨头的一半。这家名字搞笑的芯片公司很快就家喻户晓；周三的财报电话会议甚至引发了渴望追踪动态的投资者和粉丝的围观派对。

Such an intense spotlight is rarely forgiving for long, especially given the growing concern investors have over the AI spending being committed by Nvidia’s biggest customers. In their own recent earnings reports, Microsoft, Amazon AMZN -1.26%decrease; red down pointing triangle, Meta Platforms META -1.83%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Google’s parent, Alphabet GOOGL -3.68%decrease; red down pointing triangle, reported combined capital spending of $58.5 billion just for the June quarter—up 64% year over year. All four projected that spending would stay elevated this year and into next, and all pointed to “AI infrastructure” as the main driver.
如此强烈的关注很少会持续太久，特别是考虑到投资者对英伟达最大客户的人工智能支出越来越担心。在自己最近的财报中，微软、亚马逊 AMZN跌幅为-1.26% ；红色向下的三角形，元平台 META下降-1.83% ；红色向下的三角形谷歌母公司Alphabet GOOGL下跌-3.68% ；红色向下的三角形，报告称仅 6 月份季度的综合资本支出就达到 585 亿美元，同比增长 64%。所有四人都预测今年和明年的支出将保持高位，并都指出“人工智能基础设施”是主要驱动力。

That has been great news for Nvidia, which commands the lion’s share of the AI chip market. But the durability of that spending is still a question—especially if actual demand for generative AI services doesn’t materialize at the pace that tech optimists currently envision. Questions about that spending outlook dominated Nvidia’s call Wednesday. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang waxed confident, predicting that “next year is going to be a great year.” At a $3 trillion market cap, Nvidia’s biggest challenge these days is that great isn’t always good enough.
这对于占据人工智能芯片市场最大份额的英伟达来说是个好消息。但这种支出的持久性仍然是一个问题——特别是如果对生成式人工智能服务的实际需求没有按照科技乐观主义者目前设想的速度实现的话。关于支出前景的问题主导了英伟达周三的电话会议。首席执行官黄仁勋信心十足，预测“明年将是伟大的一年”。 Nvidia 的市值高达 3 万亿美元，如今面临的最大挑战是，伟大并不总是足够好。

Write to Dan Gallagher at dan.gallagher@wsj.com
写信给 Dan Gallagher： dan.gallagher@wsj.com