WTO Sees Trade Rebound Despite ‘Troubling Times’
尽管“困难时期”，世贸组织仍看到贸易反弹

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（编者注：您好，感谢您阅读《补给线》！从明天开始我们将进入夏季休会期，并将于 8 月 12 日星期一返回您的收件箱。）

The WTO reiterated its expectation that merchandise trade growth is on track this year to exceed the longer-term annual average and is poised to accelerate heading into 2025.
世贸组织重申，预计今年商品贸易增长将超过长期年平均水平，并有望在 2025 年加速增长。

The recovery from last year’s slump in goods trade is patchy geographically, with Asia serving as the biggest engine of exports and imports, according to the World Trade Organization’s annual report released Tuesday.
世界贸易组织周二发布的年度报告显示，从去年货物贸易低迷中复苏的情况在地理上并不均衡，亚洲是最大的进出口引擎。

“The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with all regions contributing to export and import growth, although there is much more uncertainty associated with longer-term projections,” the report said.
报告称：“尽管长期预测存在更多不确定性，但 2025 年的前景更加乐观，所有地区都对进出口增长做出了贡献。”

Services trade, especially digital commerce and travel, is growing much faster, it said.
报告称，服务贸易，特别是数字商务和旅游，增长速度要快得多。

Read More: WTO Members Signal Progress on Draft E-Commerce Deal
了解更多：世贸组织成员表示电子商务协议草案取得进展

This comes despite economies that are struggling with wars and diplomatic tensions, the climate crisis and the rise of protectionism. “These are troubling times for global trade,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the report.
尽管各经济体正在与战争和外交紧张局势、气候危机和保护主义抬头​​作斗争，但这种情况还是出现了。世贸组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉在报告中表示：“现在是全球贸易的困难时期。”

Among the headwinds and uncertainties for the future is the way countries with foreign-policy differences are trading less with each other and more with their allies.
未来的不利因素和不确定性之一是外交政策存在差异的国家之间的贸易减少，而与盟友的贸易增加。

“The data suggest that after years of talk of decoupling, trade may be starting to fragment along geopolitical lines,” the WTO said.
世贸组织表示：“数据表明，经过多年的脱钩讨论，贸易可能开始沿着地缘政治路线分裂。”

It was the second time in the past week that a European institution explored how trade flows are increasingly being redirected by geopolitical alignment.
这是过去一周欧洲机构第二次探讨贸易流动如何越来越多地因地缘政治联盟而改变方向。

Read More: Shipping Strains Spark Fears of an Inflation Comeback
阅读更多：航运压力引发对通胀卷土重来的担忧

A study from the European Central Bank, by authors Costanza Bosone and Giovanni Stamato, said a 10% increase in geopolitical distance between two countries — measured by the UN General Assembly votes — resulted in a 2.5% drop in their bilateral trade flows from 2012 to 2022.
欧洲央行 (European Central Bank) 的一项研究由作者 Costanza Bosone 和 Giovanni Stamato 撰写，称两国之间的地缘政治距离增加 10%（以联合国大会投票衡量）导致两国双边贸易流量从 2012 年到 2012 年下降 2.5%。 2022 年。

Although the increasing friction between the US and China makes up a fair share of the effect, the results still indicate a broader effect on trade patterns for 63 observed countries. The paper finds that the impact of geopolitics is stronger in advanced compared with emerging economies.
尽管中美之间不断增加的摩擦占据了相当一部分影响，但结果仍然表明对 63 个观察国家的贸易模式产生了更广泛的影响。研究发现，与新兴经济体相比，地缘政治对发达经济体的影响更大。

—Marilen Martin in Frankfurt
— Marilen Martin于 法兰克福

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.
单击此处了解 Bloomberg.com 有关贸易、供应链和航运的更多阅读最多的故事。

Charted Territory 图表领土

Gaining on US | Among the more interesting trends in the WTO’s 2024 annual report is comparing the share of funding from the US and China for the Geneva-based organization’s overall budget. The US’s 11.4% is still higher than Beijing’s share this year, but only barely and the gap has steadily narrowed in recent years. Collectively, the 27 economies of the European Union account for 31% of total assessments this year. The WTO secretariat employs about 600 people with a 2024 budget of $205 million.
战胜美国|世贸组织 2024 年年度报告中更有趣的趋势之一是比较美国和中国在这个总部位于日内瓦的组织总体预算中所占的份额。今年美国11.4%的份额仍高于北京，但也只是勉强高于，而且近年来差距在稳步缩小。欧盟 27 个经济体合计占今年摊款总额的 31%。世贸组织秘书处拥有约 600 名员工，2024 年预算为 2.05 亿美元。

Today’s Must Reads

• China’s factory activity contracted for a third straight month in July, leaving the economy on a weak trajectory that’s frustrating Beijing’s efforts to sustain faster growth. Meanwhile, Japan’s factory output dropped in June.
• Mexico’s economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the second quarter compared to the previous three-month period, as double-digit interest rates cooled demand.
• Eurazeo is considering a sale of Elemica in a deal that could value the supply-chain software provider at more than $1 billion.
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she’s “very satisfied” with her trip to China, the culmination of a charm offensive she mounted after snubbing the country’s flagship Belt and Road initiative last year.
• Airbus finds itself in a situation where it can’t build aircraft fast enough to satisfy demand for fuel-efficient jets. Watch CEO Guillaume Faury discuss the company’s space and defense businesses, supply chain issues and the interest-rate environment.
• Major companies can bolster efforts to calculate Scope 3 emissions by helping entities across their supply chains build capacity to provide better data, according to Singapore Post.

On the Airwaves

• In this Talking Transports podcast, Ole Hjertaker, the CEO of SFL, shares his outlook for shipping subsectors including containers, tankers, dry bulk and car carriers as well as for jack-up drilling rigs. Click here for past episodes.
• Voternomics: Why Trump 2.0 May Be Good News for Dictators
• New Energy Storage Solutions Test Lithium-Ion’s Reign
• Elon Inc: Musk’s X Rampage and Why He Left California

Coming Up

Bloomberg Supply Chain Intelligence Webinar Series: Unpredictability in global politics, industrial policies, financial markets and climate patterns have heightened the need to understand the intricacies of supply chains – and pinpoint where risk lies. The goal of this series is to shine a spotlight on major trends and issues that are shaping global supply chains and how these trends are impacting corporations and investors in those corporations. Register here

On the Bloomberg Terminal

• The prolonged crisis in the Red Sea has provided an earnings opportunity for Maersk and has masked weak supply-demand dynamics facing the liner industry, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
• Bolivian trucker unions launched an indefinite strike with road blockades to protest a fuel shortage in the country, according to a document sent by a union leader via text message.
• Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
• Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
• See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints.
• For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
• Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
• On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
• See BNEF for BloombergNEF’s analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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