We’ve Already Picked Decoupling’s Low-Hanging Fruit
我们已经摘取了脱钩的低 hanging 果实

Declines in foreign direct investment in China bolster the thesis that global companies are turning away from the world’s most-important production hub, continuing the trend of decoupling that has policymakers and corporate leaders looking for alternative manufacturing bases. The truth of the nation’s deteriorating importance isn’t so simple.
外国直接投资在中国的下降加强了这样一个论点，即全球公司正在转向世界上最重要的生产中心，继续脱钩的趋势，这让决策者和企业领导人寻找替代制造基地。这个国家重要性减弱的真相并不那么简单。

Inbound FDI dropped 28.2% in the year through May, the 12th straight month of retraction. Other data released this month add weight to the “whither China” argument.
外国直接投资（FDI）在截至 5 月的一年中下降了 28.2%，这是连续第 12 个月的萎缩。本月发布的其他数据进一步支持“中国何去何从”的论点。

Yet, there’s a risk of overestimating the extent to which deglobalization is occurring. Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warns policymakers may underestimate the trade and economic impact of conflict, especially in the Taiwan Strait.
然而，存在高估去全球化程度的风险。外交关系委员会研究员布拉德·塞策警告决策者可能低估了冲突对贸易和经济的影响，尤其是在台湾海峡。

Instead, it’s important to recognize that some shift in manufacturing has already occurred, but this rate of change is likely to be stagnant for a little while. Both corporate and political leaders need to accept and adjust to the unsteady pace of decoupling, especially when it comes to planning for supply chain resilience.
相反，重要的是要认识到制造业已经发生了一些转变，但这种变化速度可能会在一段时间内停滞不前。企业和政治领导人都需要接受并适应脱钩步伐的不稳定，特别是在规划供应链弹性方面。

Deglobalization is the unraveling of global commerce, while decoupling is the gradual cessation of ties between two parties, in this case the US and China, and their spheres of influence. Fragmentation is the breaking up of previously large, centralized hubs of activity into more numerous, smaller groupings. Each of these is happening, and can be supported by data, but none is yet complete. They likely never will be.
去全球化是全球商业的解体，而脱钩是两个当事方之间关系的逐渐停止，本例中是美国和中国，以及它们的影响范围。分裂是将先前的大型中心活动分解为更多、更小的群体。这些情况都在发生，并且可以通过数据支持，但目前还没有完成。它们可能永远不会完成。

China remains the single largest manufacturing economy and exporter in the world. Large swathes of industry have started to move out, including textiles, power tools, and electronics. But fast development in other sectors, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, make the country even more crucial to certain parts of the global economy. As a result, you can find a statistic to support your position, whether you believe globalization of trade is continuing, reversing, or stagnant.
中国仍然是世界上最大的制造业经济体和出口国。许多行业已经开始外移，包括纺织品、电动工具和电子产品。但在其他领域，如电动汽车和可再生能源的快速发展，使该国对全球经济的某些部分变得更加关键。因此，您可以找到支持您立场的统计数据，无论您认为贸易全球化是持续、逆转还是停滞不前。

While there’s a growing number of indigenous Chinese firms that are global leaders in their field, such as BYD Co. in EVs, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) in batteries, and Huawei Technologies Co. in communications equipment, they’re not major exporters — each get more than two-thirds of their revenue domestically. Cutting them off from international markets isn’t good for the world economy, but wouldn’t much move the globalization needle. Foreign companies shifting procurement and operations away from China, though, does change the balance. And we’re seeing just that.
尽管中国本土企业中有越来越多的全球领先企业，如比亚迪股份有限公司在电动汽车领域、宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司在电池领域以及华为技术有限公司在通信设备领域，它们并不是主要出口商，每家企业超过三分之二的收入来自国内。将它们与国际市场隔离并不利于世界经济，但也不会对全球化产生太大影响。然而，外国企业将采购和运营转移出中国，这将改变平衡。我们正在看到这种情况。

Dell Technologies Inc. has been forthright in wanting to reduce its reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Others, like HP Inc. and Apple Inc., are doing so, but more quietly and less directly. Power-tool maker Stanley Black & Decker Inc. closed its Shenzhen factory four years ago. Foreign automakers are also departing, with Mitsubishi Motors Corp. withdrawing from a joint venture and Ford Motor Co. saying it will cut back. Yet what we have seen leave China so far is the easy stuff, such as product assembly. Because the final manufacturing step is generally the most labor intensive — be it putting panels on a car or slotting parts of an iPhone together — migrating this phase is the easiest. It’s also better for marketing: You don’t need to label something Made in China if the final bits are completed in Vietnam or Mexico.
戴尔科技公司一直希望减少对中国制造的依赖。其他公司，如惠普公司和苹果公司，也在这样做，但更为低调和间接。电动工具制造商史丹利·百得公司四年前关闭了其深圳工厂。外国汽车制造商也在撤离，三菱汽车公司退出了一项合资企业，福特汽车公司表示将削减规模。然而，迄今为止离开中国的是一些简单的工作，比如产品组装。因为最终的制造步骤通常是最劳动密集的——无论是给汽车安装面板还是将 iPhone 零件组装在一起——迁移这个阶段是最容易的。这对营销也更有利：如果最终的组装在越南或墨西哥完成，你就不需要标明“中国制造”。

For decoupling to have a real impact, though, we need components including chemicals, metal sheets, circuit boards, cables, and wiring, to be built outside of China. These are made with big, expensive machines that require fewer workers, but greater integration with other parts of the supply chain. For now, China’s role in this phase of manufacturing remains dominant and likely will for some time.
要使脱钩产生真正的影响，我们需要包括化学品、金属板、电路板、电缆和电线在内的组件在中国以外建造。这些组件是用大型昂贵的机器制造的，需要较少的工人，但需要与供应链的其他部分更紧密地集成。目前，中国在这一制造阶段的角色仍然占主导地位，并且可能会在相当长一段时间内保持这种地位。

If the goal is to create more resilience, reduce risk, and diversify manufacturing, then policymakers and corporate leaders can pat themselves on the back. But if the greater aim is to cut the world’s second-largest country out entirely, and ensure the global economy can withstand a massive shock wrought by any future conflict between China and Taiwan, then that’s a dream so far unfulfilled.
如果目标是增加更多的弹性，降低风险，并实现制造业多样化，那么政策制定者和企业领导者可以为自己鼓掌。但如果更大的目标是完全排除世界第二大国家，并确保全球经济能够承受由中国和台湾之间任何未来冲突带来的巨大冲击，那么这个梦想迄今尚未实现。

More From Bloomberg Opinion:
彭博观点更多:

• Why China Wants South Korea to Stay Open: Tim Culpan
  为什么中国希望韩国保持开放：蒂姆·卡尔潘
• India’s Tech Hub Trapped Between SVB and Traffic: Andy Mukherjee
  印度的科技中心陷入斯坦福银行和交通之间：安迪·穆克吉
• Moore’s Law Keeps Chip Leaders Ahead of the Pack: Tim Culpan
  摩尔定律让芯片领导者保持领先地位：蒂姆·卡尔潘

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