Chapter6
第 6 章
Oligopoly Pricing
寡头垄断定价
Each firm in an oligopoly is competing with a few other large firms, so any action it takes will provoke reactions from rivals. • Prisoner’s dilemma • Cartels •
寡头垄断中的每家公司都在与其他几家大公司竞争，因此它采取的任何行动都会引起竞争对手的反应。• 囚徒困境 • 卡特尔 •
If the oligopoly firms can restrain their price rivalry, then the exporting countries benefit from the higher export prices and better terms of trade.
如果寡头垄断公司能够抑制他们的价格竞争，那么出口国就会从更高的出口价格和更好的贸易条件中受益。
The Gravity Model of Trade
贸易的引力模型
The gravity model of international trade suggests that trade flows between two countries will be larger as • The economic sizes of the two countries are larger. • The geographic distance between them is smaller. • Other impediments to trade are smaller. Economic size is usually measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which represents both its production capability and the income that is generated by its production
国际贸易的引力模型表明，两个国家之间的贸易流量将更大，因为 • 两个国家的经济规模更大。• 它们之间的地理距离较小。• 其他贸易障碍较小。经济规模通常由一个国家的国内生产总值 （GDP） 来衡量，GDP 代表其生产能力和生产产生的收入
Chapter Seven Growth and Trade
第七章 增长与贸易
Balanced Versus Biased Growth
平衡增长与偏向增长
Growth in a country’s production capabilities shifts the country’s production-possibility curve (ppc) outward.
一个国家生产能力的增长会使该国的生产可能性曲线 （ppc） 向外移动。
As the ppc shifts out, we are interested in knowing the effects on:
随着 ppc 的移动，我们有兴趣了解它对以下方面的影响：
• The general shape of the production-possibility curve.
• 生产可能性曲线的一般形状。
• The specific production quantities for the different products, if product prices remain the same.
• 如果产品价格保持不变，则不同产品的特定生产数量。
Balanced and Biased Growth1
平衡和偏向的增长1
Biased Growth2
偏向增长2
In balanced growth, the country’s production possibility curve (ppc) shifts out proportionately so its relative shape is the same.
在平衡增长中，该国的生产可能性曲线 （ppc） 按比例向外移动，因此其相对形状相同。
In biased growth, the expansion favors proportionately more of one of the products, so the ppc will be skewed toward the faster growing product.
在偏向增长中，扩展按比例更有利于其中一种产品，因此 ppc 将偏向增长较快的产品。
Growth in Only One Factor
仅一个因素的增长
Rybczynski theorem: In a two-good world, and assuming that product prices are constant, growth in the country’s endowment of one factor of production, with the other factor unchanged, has two results:
Rybczynski 定理：在一个双好世界中，假设产品价格保持不变，在另一个要素不变的情况下，该国一种生产要素禀赋的增长会产生两个结果：
• An increase in the output of the good that uses the growing factor intensively.
• 密集使用生长因子的商品产量增加。
• A decrease in the output of the other good.
• 其他商品的产量减少。
Single-Factor Growth: The Rybczynski Theorem
单因素增长：Rybczynski 定理
Changes in the Country’s Willingness to Trade
该国贸易意愿的变化
As production and consumption change with growth, a country’s willingness to or interest in engaging in international trade can also change. It could:
随着生产和消费随着增长而变化，一个国家参与国际贸易的意愿或兴趣也会发生变化。它可以：
• Increase its willingness to trade (export and import more).
• 提高其贸易意愿（增加出口和进口）。
• Decrease its willingness to trade (export and import less).
• 降低其贸易意愿（减少出口和进口）。
Effects on the Country’s Terms of Trade
对该国贸易条件的影响
Small country case: If the country is small (i.e., a price-taker in world trade), then its trade has no impact on the international price ratio (the country’s terms of trade, TOT).
小国案例：如果一个国家很小（即世界贸易中的定价者），那么它的贸易对国际价格比率（该国的贸易条件，TOT）没有影响。
Large country case: If a country is large, a change in willingness to trade affects the equilibrium international price ratio. This change could either improve the country’s TOT, or deteriorate the TOT.
大国案例：如果一个国家很大，贸易意愿的变化会影响均衡的国际价格比率。这一变化可能会改善该国的 TOT，也可能使 TOT 恶化。
Growth Biased toward Replacing Imports in a Large Country
大国的增长偏向于取代进口
A reduction of a large country’s demand for imports reduces the relative price of the import good—this change is an improvement in the country’s terms of trade.
大国对进口的需求减少会降低进口商品的相对价格——这一变化是该国贸易条件的改善。
The country gains from growth for two reasons:
该国从增长中获益有两个原因：
• The production benefit from growth shifts the ppc out.
• 生产收益从增长中转移了 ppc。
• It receives a better price for its exports relative to the price paid for imports.
• 相对于进口价格，它的出口价格更高。
Growth Biased toward Replacing Imports in a Large Country
大国的增长偏向于取代进口
Growth That Increases a Large Country’s Willingness to Trade
增长提高了大国的贸易意愿
The increase in the country’s demand for imports increases the relative price of the import good (or the increase in the country’s supply of exports reduces the relative price of the export good).
该国进口需求的增加提高了进口商品的相对价格（或者该国出口供应的增加降低了出口商品的相对价格）。
This change in the equilibrium international price ratio is a deterioration in the country’s terms of trade. The overall effect on the country’s well-being is not clear.
均衡国际价格比率的这种变化是该国贸易条件的恶化。对该国福祉的总体影响尚不清楚。
Immiserizing Growth
不幸的增长
Immiserizing growth: Growth that expands the country’s willingness to trade can result in such a large decline in the country’s terms of trade that the country is worse off.
令人痛苦的增长：扩大国家贸易意愿的增长可能导致该国的贸易条件大幅下降，从而导致该国的情况变得更糟。
Three crucial conditions:
三个关键条件：
1. The country’s growth must be strongly biased toward expanding the country’s supply of exports (increasing its willingness to trade), and the increase in export supply must be large enough to have a noticeable impact on world prices.
1. 该国的增长必须强烈偏向于扩大该国的出口供应（增加其贸易意愿），并且出口供应的增加必须足够大，以对世界价格产生显着影响。
2. The foreign demand for the country’s exports must be price inelastic, so that an expansion in the country’s export supply leads to a large drop in the international price of the export product.
2. 国外对该国出口的需求必须是无弹性的，这样该国出口供应的扩大会导致出口产品的国际价格大幅下降。
3. Before the growth, the country must be heavily engaged in trade, so that the welfare loss from the decline in terms of trade is great enough to offset the gains from being able to produce more.
3. 在增长之前，国家必须大量参与贸易，这样贸易下降造成的福利损失就足以抵消能够生产更多产品的收益。
Immiserizing Growth in a Large Country
大国的悲惨增长
Technology and Trade
技术与贸易
Another basis for comparative advantage can arise over time as technological changes occur at different rates in different sectors and countries.
随着时间的推移，比较优势的另一个基础可能会出现，因为不同部门和国家的技术变化以不同的速度发生。
In some ways, a technology-based explanation is an alternative that competes with the H–O model.
在某些方面，基于技术的解释是与 H-O 模型竞争的替代方案。
In other ways, technology differences can be consistent with an H–O view of the world.
在其他方面，技术差异可能与 H-O 的世界观一致。
Individual Products and the Product Cycle
单个产品和产品周期
According to the product cycle hypothesis, first advanced by Raymond Vernon:
根据 Raymond Vernon 首先提出的产品周期假说：
• When a product is first invented, the major demand is mostly in high-income countries, and the product still must be perfected by using additional R&D and local production.
• 当产品首次被发明时，主要需求主要在高收入国家，并且仍然必须通过使用额外的研发和本地生产来完善产品。
• Over time, the product and its production technology become more standardized and familiar. Factor intensity in production tends to shift away from skilled labor toward less-skilled labor.
• 随着时间的推移，产品及其生产技术变得更加标准化和熟悉。生产中的要素强度倾向于从熟练劳动力转向低技能劳动力。
• The technology diffuses and production locations shift into other countries, eventually into developing countries with abundant less-skilled workers.
• 技术扩散，生产地点转移到其他国家，最终进入拥有大量低技能工人的发展中国家。
Openness to Trade Affects Growth
贸易开放影响增长
Openness to international trade can enhance the technology that a country can use by facilitating the diffusion of foreign-based technology into the country and by accelerating the domestic development of the technology
对国际贸易的开放可以通过促进外国技术向该国传播并加速技术的国内发展来增强一个国家可以使用的技术
• The growth rate for the country (and world as a whole) increases in the long run.
• 从长远来看，国家（以及整个世界）的增长率会提高。
Trade, Technology, and U.S. Wages
贸易、技术和美国工资
The importance of international trade increased dramatically for the United States. The ratio of the sum of exports and imports to total national production (GDP) more than doubled from the early 1970s to the late-2010s.
国际贸易对美国的重要性急剧增加。从 1970 年代初到 2010 年代末，进出口总和与国民生产总值 （GDP） 的比率翻了一番多。
Most researchers have concluded that the major driving force changing demands for skilled and unskilled labor has been technological change which may be pressuring relative wages in two ways:
大多数研究人员得出结论，改变对熟练和非熟练劳动力需求的主要驱动力是技术变革，它可能以两种方式对相对工资构成压力：
• First, technological progress has been faster in industries that are more intensive in skilled labor.
• 首先，技术进步在熟练劳动力更密集的行业中更快。
• Second, the technological progress that has occurred within individual industries appears to be biased in favor of using more skilled labor.
• 其次，单个行业内部发生的技术进步似乎偏向于使用更熟练的劳动力。
Chapter Twenty-Two How Does the Open Macroeconomy Work?
第二十二章 开放的宏观经济是如何运作的？
Performance of a National Economy
国民经济的表现
Internal Balance
内部余额
• Actual domestic production close to the economy’s potential, often summarized as full employment (an acceptably low unemployment rate)
• 实际国内生产接近经济潜力，通常概括为充分就业（可接受的低失业率）
• Price stability (an acceptably low inflation rate)
• 价格稳定（可接受的低通货膨胀率）
External Balance
外部余额
• Sustainable composition of the country’s balance of payments with the rest of the world
• 该国与世界其他地区的国际收支的可持续构成
• Useful indicator: Official settlements balance is approximately equal to zero (so the country is not losing official international reserves or acquiring unwanted official international reserves).
• 有用的指标：官方结算余额大约等于零（因此该国不会失去官方国际储备或获得不需要的官方国际储备）。
A Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis
宏观经济分析框架
Our model analyzes the economy in the short run, when prices are “sticky” and slow to respond to various demand shocks, such as changes in the money supply.
我们的模型分析了短期经济，此时价格具有“粘性”并且对各种需求冲击（例如货币供应量的变化）反应缓慢。
Beyond the short run, the price level does respond to demand and supply shocks. This means that the amount of inflation the country experiences eventually depends on the rate of growth of the country’s money supply.
从短期来看，价格水平确实会对供需冲击做出反应。这意味着该国经历的通货膨胀量最终取决于该国货币供应量的增长率。
In addition, the economy tends toward full employment in the long run.
此外，从长远来看，经济趋向于充分就业。
Domestic Production Depends on Aggregate Demand
国内生产取决于总需求
In the short run, domestic production (producers’ willingness to produce) is determined by demand.
在短期内，国内生产（生产者的生产意愿）是由需求决定的。
Equilibrium occurs when domestic production (Y, or real GDP) equals desired aggregate demand (AD) for domestically produced goods and services:
当国内生产（Y 或实际 GDP）等于国内生产的商品和服务的期望总需求 （AD） 时，就会出现均衡：
Y = AD = C + Id + G + (X – M)
Y = AD = C + Id + G + （X – M）
where C = domestic consumption, Id = planned domestic real investment, G = government spending, X = exports, and M = imports.
其中 C = 国内消费，Id = 计划国内实际投资，G = 政府支出，X = 出口，M = 进口。
Domestic Production and Unemployment
国内生产和失业
The level of actual domestic production or real GDP (relative to the economy’s potential production or real GDP) tends to be closely related to the economy’s unemployment rate in the labor market.
实际国内生产水平或实际 GDP（相对于经济的潜在生产或实际 GDP）往往与经济的劳动力市场失业率密切相关。
Aggregate Demand
总需求
Consumption expenditure depends on domestic income (Y)
消费开支取决于本地收入 （Y）
C=C(Y)
C=C（Y）
Real private domestic Investment is negatively related to the level of interest rates, i, in the economy
实际私人国内投资与经济中的利率水平呈负相关，即
Id=Id(i)
Id=Id（i）
Government spending on goods and services is part of fiscal policy, determined by political process, and assumed to be exogenous:
政府在商品和服务上的支出是财政政策的一部分，由政治进程决定，并被认为是外生的：
G=G0
National expenditure on goods and services:
国家商品和服务支出：
E=C+ld+G
Trade Depends on Income
贸易取决于收入
The volume of imports depends positively on the country’s real production and income:
进口量与该国的实际生产和收入有正相关关系：
M = M(Y)
米 = M（Y）
The positive relationship between imports and income can be measured by marginal propensity to import (m)
进口与收入之间的正相关可以用边际进口倾向 （m） 来衡量
where m = ∆𝑀/∆𝑌
其中 m = ∆M/∆Y
The volume of the country’s exports depends on the real production and income of foreign countries.
该国的出口量取决于外国的实际生产和收入。
Equilibrium Domestic Production
均衡国内生产
Equilibrium: Y=AD (Y)=C+ld+G+(X-M)
平衡：Y=AD （Y）=C+ld+G+（X-M）
=E+(X-M) =E+If
=E+（X-M） =E+If
The equilibrium relationship can be written as:
均衡关系可以写成：
Y-C-G= ld+X-M
where the left-hand side measures national savings
其中左侧衡量的是国民储蓄
S=Y-C-G
So, equilibrium is:
所以，平衡是：
S=Id+X-M=ld+If or S-ld=X-M=If
S=Id+X-M=ld+If 或 S-l d=X-M=If
The Spending Multiplier in a Small Open Economy
小型开放经济体中的支出乘数
The spending multiplier for a small open economy is:
小型开放经济体的支出乘数为：
∆𝑌/∆𝐺 = 1/𝑠+𝑚
∆Y/∆G = 1/s+m
where s is the marginal propensity to save, s = ∆𝑆/∆𝑌 and m is marginal propensity to import, m = ∆𝑀/∆𝑌
其中 s 是储蓄的边际倾向，s = ∆S/∆Y，m 是进口的边际倾向，m = ∆M/∆Y
Foreign Spillovers and Foreign-Income Repercussions
外国溢出效应和外国收入影响
If a country is small, its changes in imports will not have any measurable impact on world trade (any follow-on effects will be negligible).
如果一个国家很小，其进口变化不会对世界贸易产生任何可衡量的影响（任何后续影响都可以忽略不计）。
If, instead, the country is large, then these follow-on or spillover effects can be important in two ways:
相反，如果国家很大，那么这些后续或溢出效应可能在两个方面很重要：
1. Changes in production and income of a large country have spillover effects on production and income in other countries.
1. 大国的生产和收入变化对其他国家的生产和收入产生溢出效应。
2. The changes in foreign incomes alter foreign purchases of the first country’s exports. © McGraw Hill LLC.
2. 外国收入的变化改变了第一国出口的外国购买。© 麦格劳希尔有限责任公司
The more our country’s imports affect foreign incomes, and the more foreign countries have a propensity to import from our country, the more our true spending multiplier exceeds the simple formula multiplier 1/(s + m).
我们国家的进口对外国收入的影响越大，外国就越倾向于从我们国家进口，我们的真实支出乘数就越超过简单的公式乘数 1/（s + m）。
The existence of foreign spillovers and foreign-income repercussions explains the cross-country correlation of national business cycles. (Figure 22.3)
外国溢出效应和外国收入影响的存在解释了国家商业周期的跨国相关性。（图 22.3）
Locomotive Theory: The growth in one or more large economies can raise growth in other smaller countries that trade with these large countries.
火车头理论：一个或多个大型经济体的增长可以提高与这些大国进行贸易的其他小国的增长。
A More Complete Framework: Three Markets
更完整的框架：三个市场
Three types of markets: • Domestic product market • Money market • Foreign exchange market
三种类型的市场： • 国内产品市场 • 货币市场 • 外汇市场
Endogenous variables: • Domestic product, Y • Interest rate, i
内生变量： • 国内生产产品，Y • 利率，i
Exogenous forces: • Fiscal policy • Monetary policy • International lending • Many others
外生力量： • 财政政策 • 货币政策 • 国际借贷 • 许多其他
An Overview of the Macromodel of an Open Economy
开放经济宏观模型概述
An Overview of the Macromodel of an Open Economy—Long Description
开放经济宏观模型概述 — 详细描述
Our domestic product and money markets determine real domestic product and interest rates. Domestic interest rates impact the market for foreign exchange. Outside forces such as fiscal policy, business mood, and foreign trade impact the domestic product market. Outside forces such as monetary policy and changes in money demand affect the domestic money market. Outside forces such as international lending shifts, foreign trade shifts, and currency devaluations impact the foreign exchange market.
我们的国内产品和货币市场决定了实际的国内产品和利率。国内利率影响外汇市场。财政政策、商业情绪和外贸等外部力量影响国内产品市场。货币政策和货币需求变化等外部力量影响国内货币市场。国际借贷转移、外贸转移和货币贬值等外部力量影响外汇市场。
The Domestic Product Market
国内产品市场
The IS curve shows all combinations of domestic production levels and interest rates for which the domestic product market is in equilibrium. The equilibrium condition can be expressed in two ways: Y = C(Y) + Id (i) + G + (X – M(Y))
IS 曲线显示了国内产品市场处于均衡状态的国内生产水平和利率的所有组合。平衡条件可以用两种方式表示：Y = C（Y） + Id （i） + G + （X – M（Y））
S(Y) = Id (i)+ X – M (Y)
S（Y） = Id （i）+ X – M （Y）
The IS Curve: Equilibriums in the Domestic Product Market
IS 曲线：国内产品市场的均衡
The IS Curve: Equilibriums in the Domestic Product Market—Long Description
IS 曲线：国内产品市场的均衡 - 详细描述
The investment saving reflects an inverse relationship between interest rates and national income. That means the investment saving curve slopes downward from left to right. Any area above the investment saving curve represents deficient aggregate demand where the sum of domestic investment and net exports is less than national saving. Any area below the investment saving curve represents excess aggregate demand where the sum of domestic investment and net exports is greater than national saving.
投资储蓄反映了利率和国民收入之间的反比关系。这意味着投资储蓄曲线从左向右向下倾斜。投资节省曲线上方的任何区域都代表总需求不足，其中国内投资和净出口之和小于国内储蓄。投资储蓄曲线以下的任何区域都代表过剩的总需求，其中国内投资和净出口之和大于国民储蓄。
The Money Market
货币市场
The LM curve shows all combinations of production levels and interest rates for which the money market is in equilibrium given the money supply, the price level, and the money demand function.
LM 曲线显示了货币市场在货币供应量、价格水平和货币需求函数的情况下处于均衡状态的生产水平和利率的所有组合。
The demand for (nominal) money (L) is positively related to nominal GDP and negatively related to the level of interest rates available on other financial assets:
对（名义）货币 （L） 的需求与名义 GDP 呈正相关，与其他金融资产的可用利率水平呈负相关：
L = L(PY, i)
L = L（PY， i）
The equilibrium between money supply MS and money demand is then:
货币供应量 MS 和货币需求之间的平衡是：
Ms = L(PY, i)
Ms = L（PY， i）
The LM Curve: Equilibriums in the Money Market
LM 曲线：货币市场的均衡
The LM Curve: Equilibriums in the Money Market—Long Description
LM 曲线：货币市场的均衡 — 详细描述
The liquidity money curve slope reflects a positive relationship between interest rates and real domestic product, which means the liquidity money curve slopes upward from left to right. Any area above the liquidity money curve represents an excess supply of money. Any area below the liquidity money curve represents an excess demand for money.
流动性货币曲线斜率反映了利率与实际国内生产总值之间的正相关关系，这意味着流动性货币曲线从左向右向上倾斜。流动性货币曲线上方的任何区域都代表货币供应过剩。流动性货币曲线下方的任何区域都代表对货币的过度需求。
The Foreign Exchange Market (or Balance of Payments)
外汇市场（或国际收支平衡表）
The FE curve shows all combinations of production levels and interest rates in a country that result in a zero value for the country’s official settlements balance. The official settlements balance, B, equals the current account balance, CA (approximately equal to net exports), plus financial account balance, FA: = CA(Y) + FA(i)
FE 曲线显示了一个国家/地区的生产水平和利率的所有组合，这些组合导致该国的官方结算余额为零。官方结算余额 B 等于经常账户余额 CA（大约等于净出口）加上金融账户余额 FA：= CA（Y） + FA（i）
The FE Curve: Balance of Payment Equilibriums
FE 曲线：国际收支平衡
The FE Curve: Balance of Payment Equilibriums—Long Description
FE 曲线：国际收支均衡 — 详细描述
The FE curve links the balance of payments with the interest rate and real national income. It reflects a positive relationship between interest rates and real national income, which means the FE curve is upward sloping from left to right. Any area above the FE curve represents an official settlements balance surplus. Any area below the FE curve represents an official settlements balance deficit.
FE 曲线将国际收支与利率和实际国民收入联系起来。它反映了利率与实际国民收入之间的正相关关系，这意味着 FE 曲线从左到右向上倾斜。FE 曲线上方的任何区域都代表官方结算余额盈余。FE 曲线下方的任何区域都代表官方结算余额赤字。
The Three Markets Together
三个市场合在一起
Bringing the three markets together, the economy will gravitate toward a simultaneous equilibrium in the domestic product market and the money market.
将这三个市场结合在一起，经济将趋向于国内产品市场和货币市场同时均衡。
If IS-LM intersects to the left of (or above) the FE curve, the country’s official settlement balance is in surplus (B > 0).
如果 IS-LM 与 FE 曲线的左侧（或上方）相交，则该国的官方结算余额为盈余 （B > 0）。
If IS-LM intersects on the FE curve, the country’s official settlement balance is zero (B = 0).
如果 IS-LM 在 FE 曲线上相交，则该国的官方结算余额为零 （B = 0）。
If IS-LM intersects to the right of (or below) the FE curve, the country’s official settlement balance is in deficit (B ˂ 0).
如果 IS-LM 与 FE 曲线的右侧（或下方）相交，则该国的官方结算余额为赤字 （B ˂ 0）。
If the country operates under a fixed exchange-rate regime, then any divergence between the IS-LM intersection and the FE curve shows that official intervention is needed to defend the fixed exchange rate.
如果该国在固定汇率制度下运作，那么 IS-LM 交集和 FE 曲线之间的任何背离都表明需要官方干预来捍卫固定汇率。
If the country operates under a cleanly floating exchange-rate regime, then the official settlement balance must be zero, and the IS, LM, and FE curves will intersect at the same point.
如果该国在干净浮动的汇率制度下运作，那么官方结算余额必须为零，IS、LM 和 FE 曲线将在同一点相交。
The Price Level Does Change
价格水平确实发生了变化
The price level does change over time for three basic reasons: 1. Most countries have some amount of ongoing inflation. This inflation can be anticipated and built into inflation expectations. 2. Strong or weak aggregate demand can put pressure on the country’s price level. 3. Shocks can cause large changes in the price level, even in the short run. For example, oil price shocks or abrupt changes in exchange-rate value of the country’s currency can cause price changes in the domestic economy.
价格水平确实会随着时间的推移而变化，原因有三：1. 大多数国家都有一定程度的持续通货膨胀。这种通货膨胀是可以预见的，并纳入通货膨胀预期。2. 总需求强劲或疲弱都会对该国的价格水平造成压力。3. 冲击会导致价格水平发生巨大变化，即使在短期内也是如此。例如，油价冲击或该国货币汇率价值的突然变化可能导致国内经济的价格变化。
Trade Also Depends on Price Competitiveness
贸易还取决于价格竞争力
A country’s exports, imports, and net exports depend on relative product prices, as measured by real exchange rate, as well as on production and income in the home country and in the rest of the world.
一个国家的出口、进口和净出口取决于以实际汇率衡量的相对产品价格，以及本国和世界其他地区的生产和收入。
Real exchange rate = 𝑒 × 𝑃𝑓/𝑃
实际汇率 = e × Pf/P
where e is the nominal exchange-rate price of foreign currency, Pf is foreign price level, and P is domestic price level.
其中 e 是外币的名义汇率价格，Pf 是国外价格水平，P 是国内价格水平。
Demand for imports M = M (Y, 𝑒 × 𝑃𝑓/𝑃 )
进口需求 M = M （Y， e × Pf/P ）
The volume of imports tends to be higher if domestic production and income is higher, but lower if foreign products are relatively expensive.
如果国内生产和收入较高，进口量往往会较高，但如果外国产品相对昂贵，则进口量较低。
Foreign demand for the country’s exports X = X (Yf , 𝑒 × 𝑃𝑓 𝑃 )
该国出口的国外需求 X = X （Yf ，e × PfP ）
The volume of exports tends to be higher if foreign production and income, Yf , is higher, and if foreign products are relatively expensive.
如果国外生产和收入 Yf 较高，并且外国产品相对昂贵，则出口量往往更高。
Chapter Twenty-Three Internal and External Balance with Fixed Exchange Rate
第二十三章 固定汇率的内外结余
Fixed Exchange Rates: Official Intervention
固定汇率：官方干预
Under a fixed exchange-rate regime, the government must defend that rate.
在固定汇率制度下，政府必须捍卫该汇率。
The first line of defense is official intervention: The monetary authority (the central bank) buys or sells foreign currency in the foreign exchange market as necessary to keep the exchange rate within the allowable band around the pegged exchange-rate value.
第一道防线是官方干预：货币当局（中央银行）根据需要在外汇市场上购买或出售外币，以将汇率保持在围绕挂钩汇率价值的允许区间内。
Central Bank Assets
中央银行资产
The two key types of assets are domestic assets (D) and international reserves (R).
两种主要类型的资产是国内资产 （D） 和国际储备 （R）。
Domestic assets (denominated in domestic currency) include bonds and similar debt securities and loans that the central bank has made to domestic financial institutions.
国内资产（以本币计价）包括债券和类似的债务证券以及中央银行向国内金融机构提供的贷款。
International reserves include holdings of foreign currency and foreign-currency-denominated securities.
国际储备包括持有的外币和外币计价证券。
Central Bank Liabilities
中央银行负债
On the liability side of the balance sheet the two liabilities of interest are:
在资产负债表的负债方面，两项利息负债是：
1. Domestic currency: This is paper money and coin issued by the central bank.
1. 本币：这是中央银行发行的纸币和硬币。
2. Deposits from (Regular) Banks: These are deposits that countries’ domestic banks have placed with the central bank.
2. 来自（常规）银行的存款：这些是 各国国内银行存入中央银行的存款。
Together these are: Monetary base (MB) = Currency + Bank deposits at the central bank
这些共同是：货币基础 （MB） = 货币 + 中央银行存款
Monetary Base and Money Supply
货币基础和货币供应量
The country’s money supply consists (mainly) of currency held by the public and various types of deposits held by the public at regular banks.
该国的货币供应量（主要）包括公众持有的货币和公众在正规银行持有的各种类型的存款。
Bank reserves (currency held by banks and bank deposits at the central bank) back up the public’s bank deposits.
银行储备（银行持有的货币和中央银行的银行存款）支持公众的银行存款。
The central bank can control the country’s money supply by controlling its own balance sheet (the monetary base) and by setting reserve requirements that banks must meet.
中央银行可以通过控制自己的资产负债表（货币基础）和设定银行必须满足的准备金要求来控制该国的货币供应量。
We can use these relationships to see the effects of official intervention on the country’s money supply.
我们可以利用这些关系来了解官方干预对国家货币供应量的影响。
From the Balance of Payments to the Money Supply
从国际收支到货币供应量
If the country has an official settlement balance surplus, so that the exchange-rate value of the country’s currency is experiencing upward pressure, the central bank must intervene to buy foreign currency and sell domestic currency. This will have the following effects on the central bank’s balance sheet:
如果该国有官方结算余额盈余，以至于该国货币的汇率值面临上行压力，中央银行必须进行干预，买入外币并卖出本国货币。这将对中央银行的资产负债表产生以下影响：
• Official international reserve holdings increase so that R will rise.
• 官方国际储备持有量增加，因此 R 将上升。
• Liabilities increase, probably an increase in bank deposits at the central bank.
• 负债增加，可能是中央银行存款增加。
• The monetary base increases, and the country’s money supply tends to increase.
• 货币基础增加，该国的货币供应量趋于增加。
If the country’s official settlement balance is in deficit and the exchange value of the country’s currency is under downward pressure, the central bank must intervene to sell foreign currency and buy domestic currency. This will have the following effects on the central bank’s balance sheet:
如果该国的官方结算余额出现赤字，并且该国货币的兑换价值面临下行压力，中央银行必须进行干预以出售外币并购买本国货币。这将对中央银行的资产负债表产生以下影响：
• Official international reserves decrease and R falls.
• 官方国际储备减少，R 下降。
• Liabilities decrease, probably a decrease in bank deposits at the central bank.
• 负债减少，可能是中央银行存款减少。
• The monetary base decreases, and the country’s money supply tends to decrease.
• 货币基础减少，该国的货币供应量趋于减少。
From the Money Supply Back to the Balance of Payments
从货币供应量回到国际收支平衡
If the country begins with a surplus in its overall balance, the surplus requires the central bank to buy foreign currency and sell domestic currency.
如果该国的总余额开始时出现盈余，则顺差需要中央银行购买外币并出售本国货币。
As the central bank increases the monetary base (bank reserves), it tends to reduce interest rates.
随着中央银行增加货币基础（银行准备金），它往往会降低利率。
The lower interest rates will have several effects on the country’s balance of payments.
较低的利率将对该国的国际收支产生多种影响。
If the country instead begins with a deficit in its official settlement balance and downward pressure on the exchange value of its currency, then all these effects work in reverse direction.
如果该国一开始就出现官方结算余额赤字和货币兑换价值的下行压力，那么所有这些影响都会朝着相反的方向发展。
Key conclusion: Under a fixed exchange-rate regime, if an external imbalance exists, central bank intervention to defend the fixed rate “automatically” changes the domestic money supply. The money supply change causes adjustments that move the economy back toward external balance.
关键结论：在固定汇率制度下，如果存在外部失衡，中央银行为捍卫固定汇率而进行的干预“自动”会改变国内货币供应量。货币供应量的变化导致调整，使经济重新回到外部平衡。
Expanding the Money Supply Worsens the Balance of Payments with Fixed Rates— Long Description
扩大货币供应量使固定利率的国际收支恶化 — 详细描述
With an increase in the money supply, banks are more willing to lend, and interest rates drop. The decline in interest rates results in a short run capital outflow. Declining interest rates also result in an increase in real spending and production, which causes national income to rise. Beyond the short run, price levels increase. As a result of rising national income and rising price levels, the current account balance worsens. The worsening current account balance and the capital outflows result in a worsening in the overall payments balance. Figure 23.2
随着货币供应量的增加，银行更愿意放贷，利率下降。利率下降会导致短期资本外流。利率下降还导致实际支出和生产增加，从而导致国民收入增加。短期之外，价格水平会上涨。由于国民收入的增加和物价水平的上涨，经常账户余额恶化。经常账户余额恶化和资本外流导致整体收支余额恶化。图 23.2
Sterilization
灭菌
The central bank can keep the external surplus or deficit from having an impact on the domestic money supply by taking offsetting actions.
中央银行可以通过采取抵消行动来防止外部盈余或赤字对国内货币供应产生影响。
Sterilization is action by the central bank to reverse the effects of official intervention on the domestic money supply.
冲销是中央银行为扭转官方干预对国内货币供应量的影响而采取的行动。
If the central bank is intervening to defend the fixed exchange rate in a situation of balance-of-payments surplus by selling domestic currency in exchange for foreign currency, the monetary base and the money supply would increase.
如果中央银行在国际收支顺差的情况下通过出售本币换取外币来干预以捍卫固定汇率，那么货币基础和货币供应量就会增加。
This process can be sterilized if the central bank undertakes, for example, an open-market operation by selling domestic government bonds. By collecting payment for the bonds, the central bank reduces the monetary base.
如果中央银行通过出售国内政府债券进行公开市场操作，那么这个过程就可以被冲销。通过收取债券付款，中央银行减少了货币基础。
Full/Complete Sterilization
全面/完全灭菌
Because a completely sterilized intervention does not change the domestic money supply, the LM curve does not change.
因为完全冲销的干预不会改变国内货币供应量，所以 LM 曲线不会改变。
Starting from a situation of surplus (or of deficit) in the balance of payment, there will be no adjustment toward external balance.
从国际收支盈余（或赤字）的情况开始，不会对外部收支进行调整。
Monetary Policy with Fixed Exchange Rates
固定汇率货币政策
Fixed exchange rates greatly constrain a country’s ability to pursue an independent monetary policy. This is because the country’s monetary policy must be consistent with maintaining the value of the fixed exchange rate. Figure 23.3
固定汇率极大地限制了一个国家追求独立货币政策的能力。这是因为该国的货币政策必须与维持固定汇率的价值相一致。图 23.3
How Expansionary Fiscal Policy Affects the Balance of Payments with Fixed Rates— Long Description
扩张性财政政策如何影响固定利率的国际收支 — 详细描述
An increase in government spending or a decrease in taxes results in an increase in interest rates as the government budget deficit rises. Rising interest rates attract foreign capital in the short run, which improves the overall payments balance. The expansionary fiscal policy also results in increased real spending, production, and national income. With the increase in income and spending, the current account balance worsens. Beyond the short run, price levels rise, which reduces the country’s international competitiveness, causing further deterioration in the current account balance. The ultimate effect on the payments balance depends on the magnitudes of the changes.
随着政府预算赤字的增加，政府支出的增加或税收的减少会导致利率上升。利率上升在短期内吸引外国资本，从而改善整体收支平衡。扩张性财政政策还导致实际支出、生产和国民收入的增加。随着收入和支出的增加，经常账户余额恶化。短期内，物价水平上涨，这降低了该国的国际竞争力，导致经常账户余额进一步恶化。对付款余额的最终影响取决于变化的幅度。
Fiscal Policy with Fixed Exchange Rates
固定汇率的财政政策
The effectiveness of fiscal policy will depend on the responsiveness of capital flows to the interest rate changes following a fiscal policy.
财政政策的有效性将取决于财政政策后资本流动对利率变化的反应性。
• If capital flows are very sensitive to interest rate changes (high capital mobility), then the capital flows will be very large, and the official settlements balance will go into surplus.
• 如果资本流动对利率变化非常敏感（高资本流动性），那么资本流动将非常大，官方结算余额将变为盈余。
• If capital flows are unresponsive (low capital mobility), then the financial account will only improve a little, and the overall balance will go into deficit.
• 如果资本流动没有反应（低资本流动性），那么金融账户只会有一点改善，整体平衡将陷入赤字。
• Figure 23.5
• 图 23.5
Perfect Capital Mobility
完美的资本流动性
A practically unlimited amount of international financial capital flows in response to the slightest change in one country’s interest rates.
几乎无限量的国际金融资本流动，以应对一国利率的最微小变化。
Perfect capital mobility with fixed exchange rates:
固定汇率的完美资本流动性：
• Makes it impossible for monetary policy to influence interest rates or the domestic economy. • Makes fiscal policy powerful in affecting domestic product (full spending multiplier effect).
• 使货币政策无法影响利率或国内经济。• 使财政政策有力地影响国内生产（完全支出乘数效应）。
• Figure 23.6
• 图 23.6
Shocks to the Economy
对经济的冲击
• Internal shocks: o Domestic monetary shocks o Domestic spending shocks • International capital-flow shocks • International trade shocks
• 内部冲击： o 国内货币冲击 o 国内支出冲击 • 国际资本流动冲击 • 国际贸易冲击
Internal Shock: Monetary
内部冲击：货币
A domestic monetary shock alters the equilibrium relationship between money supply and money demand.
国内货币冲击改变了货币供应和货币需求之间的均衡关系。
A change in money supply, or a change in demand for money, will cause a shift in the LM curve.
货币供应量的变化或货币需求的变化将导致 LM 曲线的变化。
Under fixed exchange rates, monetary shocks will have limited effects on domestic interest rates. This is because a shift in the LM curve tends to reverse itself, as the central bank must intervene to defend the fixed exchange rate.
在固定汇率下，货币冲击对国内利率的影响有限。这是因为 LM 曲线的变化往往会自行反转，因为央行必须进行干预以捍卫固定汇率。
Internal Shock: Spending
内部冲击：支出
A domestic spending shock is exogenous changes in domestic real spending on goods and services.
国内支出冲击是国内商品和服务实际支出的外生变化。
Examples include a change in fiscal policy and exogenous changes in consumer spending or investment.
例子包括财政政策的变化和消费者支出或投资的外生变化。
The effect of this kind of shock on domestic product depends on which changes more, international capital flows or the country’s current account, because of the implications for official intervention in the foreign exchange market.
这种冲击对国内生产的影响取决于国际资本流动或该国经常账户的变化更大，因为其影响在于官方干预外汇市场。
International Capital Flow Shock
国际资本流动冲击
An international capital-flow shock is a change in the flow of internationally mobile funds in response to such events as a change in foreign interest rates, rumors about political changes, or new restrictions (capital controls) on international asset holdings.
国际资本流动冲击是指国际流动资金流动的变化，以应对外国利率变化、有关政治变化的传言或对国际资产持有的新限制（资本管制）等事件。
An international capital-flow shock alters the country’s financial account balance. The FE curve shifts. Figure 23.7
国际资本流动冲击改变了该国的金融账户平衡。FE 曲线移动。图 23.7
International Trade Shock
国际贸易冲击
An international trade shock is a change in a country’s exports or imports that arises from causes other than changes in real income of the country.
国际贸易冲击是指一个国家的实际收入变化以外的原因引起的出口或进口变化。
It alters both the country’s current account balance and aggregate demand for the country’s domestic production. Both the FE curve and the IS curve shift. Figure 23.8
它改变了该国的经常账户余额和对该国国内生产的总需求。FE 曲线和 IS 曲线都发生了变化。图 23.8
Policies for Internal and External Balance
内部和外部余额策略
Policies for Internal and External Balance—Long Description
内部和外部余额策略 - 详细描述
The state of the domestic economy with either high unemployment or rapid inflation and the state of the balance of payments with a surplus or deficit may require the same policy response or conflicting policy responses.
高失业率或快速通货膨胀的国内经济状况与出现盈余或赤字的国际收支状况可能需要相同的政策应对措施或相互矛盾的政策应对措施。
Imbalances and Policy Responses
失衡和政策应对
A country wants to achieve both internal balance and external balance. Yet, its actual performance often falls short of these goals.
一个国家希望同时实现内部平衡和外部平衡。然而，它的实际性能往往达不到这些目标。
The government of a country in one of the two dilemma cases (deficit and high unemployment, or surplus and rapid inflation) has three basic choices: 1. Abandon the goal of external balance (abandon the fixed exchange rate). 2. Abandon the goal of internal balance, at least in the short run, and set its policies to achieve external balance. 3. Try to find more policy tools, or creatively use the tools it already has.
在两种困境之一（赤字和高失业率，或盈余和快速通货膨胀）中，一个国家的政府有三个基本选择：1. 放弃外部平衡的目标（放弃固定汇率）。2. 放弃内部平衡的目标，至少在短期内是这样，并制定实现外部平衡的政策。3. 尝试寻找更多的政策工具，或创造性地使用它已有的工具。
A Short-Run Solution: Monetary-Fiscal Mix
短期解决方案：货币-财政混合
There is a way to achieve both internal and external balance goals using conventional demand-side policies while staying on fixed exchange rates.
有一种方法可以使用传统的需求侧政策来实现内部和外部平衡目标，同时保持固定汇率。
Monetary and fiscal policies can be mixed so as to achieve any combination of domestic product and overall payments balance in the short run.
货币和财政政策可以混合使用，以便在短期内实现国内生产和整体支付平衡的任意组合。
Assign to fiscal policy the task of stabilizing the domestic economy, and assign to monetary policy the task of stabilizing the balance of payments. (Mundell’s Assignment Rule) Figure 23.10
将稳定国内经济的任务分配给财政政策，将稳定国际收支的任务分配给货币政策。（蒙代尔的分配规则）图 23.10
Monetary-Fiscal Recipes for Internal and External Balance
内部和外部平衡的货币财政秘诀
Monetary Fiscal Recipes for Internal and External Balance—Long Description
内部和外部平衡的货币财政方案 — 详细描述
Monetary policy is assigned to stabilize the balance of payments. Fiscal policy is assigned to stabilize the domestic economy. A two by two matrix depicts states of the economy and states of the balance of payments. The states of the domestic economy are either high unemployment or rapid inflation. The balance of payments can be in either surplus or deficit.
分配货币政策来稳定国际收支。财政政策旨在稳定国内经济。2 x 2 矩阵描述了经济状态和国际收支状态。国内经济的状态要么是高失业率，要么是快速通货膨胀。国际收支可以是盈余也可以是赤字。
The policy prescription for high unemployment and balance of payments surplus is easier monetary policy and easier fiscal policy. The policy prescription for high unemployment and a balance of payments deficit is tighter monetary policy and easier fiscal policy. The policy prescription for rapid inflation and a balance of payments surplus is easier monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy. The policy prescription for rapid inflation and balance of payment deficit is tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy.
高失业率和国际收支顺差的政策处方是宽松的货币政策和宽松的财政政策。高失业率和国际收支赤字的政策处方是收紧货币政策和宽松的财政政策。快速通货膨胀和国际收支顺差的政策处方是宽松的货币政策和更紧缩的财政政策。快速通货膨胀和国际收支赤字的政策处方是收紧货币政策和收紧财政政策。
These policy prescriptions are a useful guideline, but as the second I S L M F E diagram identifies, there are exceptional cases where monetary policy provides the wrong policy prescription and other cases where fiscal policy provides the wrong policy prescription. B D G I
这些政策处方是一个有用的指南，但正如第二个 I S L M F E 图所指出的那样，在特殊情况下，货币政策提供了错误的政策处方，而在其他情况下，财政政策提供了错误的政策处方。B D G I
Surrender: Changing the Exchange Rate
退保：更改汇率
If an imbalance in a country’s overall balance of payments is large enough or lasts long enough, the country’s government may be unwilling to change domestic policies by enough to eliminate the imbalance.
如果一个国家的整体国际收支失衡足够大或持续足够长的时间，该国政府可能不愿意改变足够的国内政策来消除失衡。
The country’s government may conclude that surrendering the fixed rate is the best choice available.
该国政府可能会得出结论，放弃固定利率是最好的选择。
If the balance of payments is in deficit, a devaluation may be used; if it’s in surplus, revaluation may occur. Figure 23.12
如果国际收支出现赤字，则可以使用贬值;如果它是盈余的，则可能会发生重估。图 23.12
How Well Does the Trade Balance Respond to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
贸易差额对汇率变化的反应如何？
A change in the nominal exchange rate should alter net exports, at least as long as it alters international price competitiveness.
名义汇率的变化应该会改变净出口，至少只要它改变了国际价格竞争力。
A devaluation is likely to lower the foreign-currency price of exports, so that foreign buyers tend to buy more.
贬值可能会降低出口的外币价格，因此外国买家倾向于购买更多商品。
The devaluation is likely to make the domestic currency price of imports higher, causing a drop in import quantities as buyers shift toward domestic substitutes for imports.
贬值可能会使进口商品的本币价格更高，从而导致进口量下降，因为买家转向国内替代品代替进口商品。
How Well Does the Trade Balance Respond to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
贸易差额对汇率变化的反应如何？
The value of the country's current account, measured in foreign currency (superscript fc), is CA = Pfcx X − Pfcm M. The effects of a devaluation of the country's currency are: (1) no change or decrease in the foreign currency price of its exports (Pfcx),
该国经常账户的价值，以外币（上标 fc）计量，为 CA = Pfcx X −Pfcm M。该国货币贬值的影响是：（1） 其出口的外汇价格 （Pfcx） 没有变化或下降，
(2) no change or increase in the volume of exports (X),
（2） 出口量没有变化或增加 （X），
(3) no change or decrease in the foreign currency price of its imports (Pfcm), and
（3） 其进口商品的外汇价格 （Pfcm） 没有变化或下降，并且
(4) no change or decrease in the volume of imports (M).
（4） 进口量 （M） 没有变化或减少。
The response of the trade balance could be unstable
贸易差额的反应可能不稳定
the value of the balance could decline rather that improve
余额的价值可能会下降，而不是改善
if the decrease in the foreign currency price of exports is large relative to the other changes
如果出口的外币价格相对于其他变化的降幅较大
an extreme example is perfectly inelastic demands for exports and imports.
一个极端的例子是导出和导入的完全无弹性需求。
Figure 23.13 A
图 23.13 A
The response of the trade balance is probably Stable
贸易差额的响应可能是 Stable
the balance will improve
平衡会得到改善
at least if we allow enough time, because sufficiently high elasticities result in large enough changes in the trade volumes.
至少如果我们留出足够的时间，因为足够高的弹性会导致交易量发生足够大的变化。
One extreme example is the small-country case in which foreign elasticities are infinite so that foreign currency prices are fixed Figure 23.13 B
一个极端的例子是小国的情况，其中外国的弹性是无限的，因此外币价格是固定的 图 23.13 B
Timing: The J-Curve
时间：J 曲线
Devaluation is likely to improve the trade balance after a sufficient span of time has elapsed.
贬值可能会在经过足够的时间后改善贸易平衡。
A J-curve shows the typical pattern of a response to devaluation.
J 曲线显示了对贬值反应的典型模式。
The value of the country’s current account first deteriorates but then improves. After a moderate time period the current account returns to where it started, and then ultimately moves above its initial value.
该国经常账户的价值先是恶化，然后是改善。经过一段适度的时间段后，活期账户会返回到其开始的位置，然后最终超过其初始值。
The J Curve: How the Trade Balance Probably Responds to a Drop in the Value of a Country’s Currency
J 曲线：贸易差额如何应对一国货币贬值
The J Curve: How the Trade Balance Probably Responds to a Drop in the Value of a Country’s Currency—Long Description
J 曲线：贸易差额如何应对一国货币贬值 - 详细描述
When a country’s currency depreciates, its trade balance initially worsens, but will improve over time. Eventually, the net change in its trade balance is greater than before the currency devaluation. A plot over time of the net change in the country’s trade balance after a currency devaluation resembles the shape of the letter J.
当一个国家的货币贬值时，其贸易差额最初会恶化，但会随着时间的推移而改善。最终，其贸易差额的净变化大于货币贬值之前。货币贬值后该国贸易差额的净变化随时间变化的图类似于字母 J 的形状。
Chapter Twenty-Four Floating Exchange Rates and Internal Balance
第二十四章 浮动汇率和内部余额
MONETARY POLICY WITH FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES
浮动汇率的货币政策
One way of achieving the goals of external balance and internal balance is to: • Let the market-driven variations in exchange rates “automatically” take care of external balance and direct macroeconomic policy toward the problem of internal balance.
实现外部平衡和内部平衡目标的一种方法是： • 让市场驱动的汇率变化“自动”照顾外部平衡，并将宏观经济政策引导至内部平衡问题。
Effects of Expanding the Money Supply with Floating Exchange Rates—Long Description
用浮动汇率扩大货币供应量的效果 — 详细描述
An increase in the money supply results in increased bank lending. Interest rates decline. In the short run, capital flows out, and given floating exchange rates, the domestic currency depreciates. The decline in interest rates also results in an increase in real spending and production. National income rises. Increased spending on all goods, including imports, coupled with a rising price level results in a worsening current account balance. The worsening in the current account balance causes further depreciation of the domestic currency. The depreciation in the domestic currency improves the current account balance, which results in further increases in real product and income. （Figure 24.2）
货币供应量的增加导致银行贷款的增加。利率下降。在短期内，资本流出，在浮动汇率的情况下，本币会贬值。利率下降也导致实际支出和生产增加。国民收入增加。包括进口在内的所有商品支出增加，加上价格水平上涨，导致经常账户余额恶化。经常账户余额的恶化导致本币进一步贬值。本币贬值改善了经常账户余额，从而进一步增加了实际产品和收入。（图 24.2）
Effects of Expansionary Fiscal Policy with Floating Exchange Rates—Long Description
浮动汇率的扩张性财政政策的效果 — 详细描述
With floating exchange rates, an expansionary fiscal policy causes interest rates to rise. In the short run capital flows in. The increased demand for the domestic currency causes it to appreciate. The expansionary fiscal policy also results in increased real spending and production. Income rises. With the increase in real spending, production, and income, along with rising price levels, the current account balance worsens. This causes the domestic currency to depreciate, offsetting the currency appreciation caused by the increased capital inflows. Spending and income may rise less at first, but eventually will probably rise more.
在浮动汇率下，扩张性财政政策导致利率上升。短期内，资本流入。对本币的需求增加导致其升值。扩张性财政政策还导致实际支出和生产增加。收入增加。随着实际支出、生产和收入的增加，以及价格水平的上涨，经常账户余额恶化。这导致本币贬值，抵消了资本流入增加引起的货币升值。支出和收入起初可能会增加较少，但最终可能会增加更多。
Expansionary Fiscal Policy with Floating Exchange Rates
浮动汇率的扩张性财政政策
Expansionary Fiscal Policy with Floating Exchange Rates—Long Description
浮动汇率的扩张性财政政策 — 详细描述
Two separate I S L M F E diagrams describe the changes in domestic product and interest rates for an expansionary fiscal policy, given floating exchange rates for both responsive and unresponsive international capital flow scenarios.
两个独立的 I S L M F E 图描述了扩张性财政政策的国内产品和利率的变化，给定反应性和反应性无反应的国际资本流动情景的浮动汇率。
Shocks to the Economy
对经济的冲击
• Internal Shocks o Domestic monetary shocks o Domestic spending shocks • International Capital-Flow Shocks • International Trade Shocks
• 内部冲击 o 国内货币冲击 o 国内支出冲击 • 国际资本流动冲击 • 国际贸易冲击
Domestic Monetary Shocks
国内货币冲击
A domestic monetary shock affects the equilibrium relationship between money supply and money demand, causing a shift in the LM curve. A change in the country’s monetary policy is an example of such a shock.
国内货币冲击影响货币供应和货币需求之间的均衡关系，导致 LM 曲线发生变化。该国货币政策的变化就是这种冲击的一个例子。
If the monetary shock tends to expand the economy, then the exchange-rate value of the country’s currency tends to depreciate, further increasing domestic product (or putting additional upward pressure on the country’s price level or inflation rate).
如果货币冲击倾向于扩大经济，那么该国货币的汇率价值就会贬值，从而进一步增加国内生产总值（或对该国的价格水平或通货膨胀率施加额外的上行压力）。
Domestic Spending Shocks
国内支出冲击
Domestic spending shocks alter domestic expenditure, causing a shift in the IS curve. A change in fiscal policy is an example.
国内支出冲击改变了国内支出，导致信息系统曲线发生变化。财政政策的变化就是一个例子。
The effect of this kind of shock on domestic product depends on which changes more—international capital flows or the country’s current account— because of the implications for the change in the exchange-rate value.
这种冲击对国内生产产品的影响取决于哪些变化更大——国际资本流动还是该国的经常账户——因为对汇率值变化的影响更大。
International Capital-Flow Shocks
国际资本流动冲击
International capital-flow shocks occur because of changes in investors’ perceptions of economic and political conditions in various countries.
国际资本流动冲击的发生是由于投资者对各国经济和政治状况的看法发生变化。
Under floating exchange rates, external capitalflow shocks can have effects on internal balance by altering the exchange rate and the country’s international price competitiveness. Figure 24.5
在浮动汇率下，外部资本流动冲击会改变汇率和该国的国际价格竞争力，从而对内部平衡产生影响。图 24.5
International Trade Shocks
国际贸易冲击
An international trade shock changes the country’s exports or imports. Both the IS curve and FE curve shift.
国际贸易冲击改变了该国的出口或进口。IS 曲线和 FE 曲线都偏移。
With floating exchange rates, the effects of international trade shocks on internal balance are mitigated by the effects of the resulting change in the exchange rate.
在浮动汇率下，国际贸易冲击对内部平衡的影响被由此产生的汇率变化的影响所减轻。
For example, an adverse trade shock tends to depreciate the country’s currency, and this reverses some of the effects of the shock. Figure 24.6
例如，不利的贸易冲击往往会使该国的货币贬值，而这会逆转冲击的一些影响。图 24.6
Internal Imbalance and Policy Responses
内部失衡和政策应对
Shocks to the economy alter both the international performance of the country’s economy and its domestic performance.
经济受到的冲击会改变该国经济的国际表现和国内表现。
With floating exchange rates, a change in the exchange rate takes care of achieving external balance following a shock. • If the country’s overall payments tend to go into deficit, then the country’s currency depreciates, reversing the tendency toward deficit. • If the country’s overall payments tend to surplus, then appreciation reverses the tendency to surplus.
在浮动汇率中，汇率的变化有助于在冲击后实现外部平衡。• 如果该国的总支付趋向于赤字，那么该国的货币就会贬值，从而扭转赤字的趋势。• 如果该国的整体支付趋于顺差，那么升值就会逆转顺差的趋势。
Monetary policy or fiscal policy can be used to address internal imbalance.
货币政策或财政政策可用于解决内部失衡问题。
International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
国际宏观经济政策协调
• The policies adopted by one country have effects on other countries. • A policy change that benefits the country making it may harm other countries. • A country may fail to make a policy change that benefits other countries. • In principle, international macroeconomic policy coordination can improve combined national economic performance. • In practice, major instances of such coordination are rare.
• 一个国家采取的政策对其他国家有影响。• 使国家受益的政策变化可能会损害其他国家。• 一个国家可能无法做出有利于其他国家的政策改变。• 原则上，国际宏观经济政策协调可以提高国民经济综合表现。• 在实践中，这种协调的主要情况很少见。
Global Crisis
全球危机
In the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, even (short term) interest rates of zero could not propel the U.S. economy back toward internal balance (a low unemployment rate): Liquidity trap.
在 2008 年全球经济和金融危机之后，即使是（短期）零利率也无法推动美国经济回到内部平衡（低失业率）：流动性陷阱。
The U.S. Fed turned to quantitative easing, buying and holding massive amounts of securities.
美国联邦储备局转向量化宽松政策，购买并持有大量证券。
Possible effects: • Lower longer-term interest rates • Depreciation of the exchange-rate value of the U.S. dollar
可能的影响： • 降低长期利率 • 美元汇率贬值