How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter
中國如何成為世界最大的汽車出口國
Source: Alix Partners
Note: 2024 values are estimated.
Source: Alix Partners 注意：2024 年的數值是估計的。
Just two decades ago, China had little capacity to make cars, and owning one was considered novel. Today, China produces and exports more cars than any other country in the world.
僅僅兩個十年前，中國幾乎沒有生產汽車的能力，擁有一輛車被視為新奇。如今，中國生產和出口的汽車數量超過世界上任何其他國家。
President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to impose new tariffs on China. Many countries, including the United States, already levy extra tariffs on China’s electric vehicles. But with all of the advantages China wields in automaking, this pushback is unlikely to undercut China’s dominance.
當選總統唐納德・J・特朗普承諾對中國徵收新的關稅。許多國家，包括美國，已對中國的電動車徵收額外關稅。但考慮到中國在汽車製造方面的優勢，這種反彈不太可能削弱中國的主導地位。
China’s home market for car sales is the world’s largest — almost as big as the American and European markets combined.
中國的汽車銷售國內市場是世界上最大的 - 幾乎與美國和歐洲市場的總和一樣大。
As China’s domestic market grew, so did its production capacity, propelled by massive government investment and world-beating advances in automation. Yet in recent years, the pace of sales has fallen behind as consumer spending slows in China’s economic downturn. The result is that China today has the capacity to make nearly twice as many cars as its consumers need.
中國國內市場增長，由於政府大規模投資和世界領先的自動化技術進步，生產能力也隨之增加。然而，近年來，隨著中國經濟下行，消費支出放緩，銷售速度已經落後。結果是，如今中國擁有的汽車生產能力幾乎是消費者需求的兩倍。
Source: GlobalData
Note: 2024 values are estimated.
Source: GlobalData 注意：2024 年的數據是估計值。
To deal with the excess, China has increasingly looked overseas to sell cars.
處理過剩，中國越來越多地尋求海外銷售汽車。
China is a leader in the transition to electric vehicles and it exports more of them than any other country. Chinese brands like BYD are becoming known worldwide for offering advanced electric cars at the most competitive prices. And as Chinese drivers have shifted rapidly to electric vehicles, demand for gasoline-powered cars in China has plunged and many are being exported instead.
中國是電動車轉型的領導者，出口數量超過其他任何國家。中國品牌如比亞迪（BYD）以提供先進的電動汽車以最具競爭力的價格而聞名於世界各地。隨著中國駕駛者迅速轉向電動車，中國對汽油車的需求急劇下降，許多汽車被出口。
But China’s trading partners say that China’s exports of both electric and gasoline-powered cars imperil millions of jobs and threaten major companies. Earlier this year, the United States and the European Union put significant new tariffs on electric cars from China. Governments are concerned because the auto industry plays a big role in national security, producing tanks, armored personnel carriers, freight trucks and other vehicles.
但中國的貿易夥伴表示，中國出口的電動和汽油車都危及數百萬個就業機會，並威脅重要公司。今年早些時候，美國和歐盟對中國的電動汽車徵收了重大的新關稅。政府擔心，因為汽車行業在國家安全中扮演著重要角色，生產坦克、裝甲運兵車、貨車和其他車輛。
What’s more, China has used steep tariffs and other taxes as a barrier to car imports, so that practically all of the cars sold in China are made in China.
此外，中國利用高關稅和其他稅收作為汽車進口的障礙，因此在中國銷售的幾乎所有汽車都是在中國製造的。
Here’s how China took the lead in the global car market.
中國如何在全球汽車市場中取得領先地位。
Decades of investment in electric cars pays off
數十年對電動車的投資取得回報
Last year, China sold 1.7 million electric cars abroad, nearly 50 percent more than the next largest exporter, Germany. Since 2020, shipments have skyrocketed.
去年，中國出口了 170 萬輛電動汽車，比下一大出口國德國多了近 50％。自 2020 年以來，出貨量急遽增加。
The top destination is Europe, where consumers prefer small, compact models like those sold in China.
頂級目的地是歐洲，那裡的消費者更喜歡像中國銷售的小型、緊湊型車型。
Southeast Asia is another big market, where buyers increasingly prefer Chinese cars for their cheaper prices.
東南亞是另一個大市場，購買者越來越偏好中國汽車，因為價格更便宜。
China also exports a small but fast-growing number of plug-in hybrid cars. Hybrids are particularly popular among buyers who may not have access to extensive charging networks but still want electric cars for short trips.
中國還出口了一小部分但增長迅速的插電式混合動力汽車。混合動力車在那些可能無法使用廣泛充電網絡但仍想要電動汽車進行短途旅行的買家中特別受歡迎。
China has invested heavily for more than 15 years in developing electric cars, to limit its dependence on imported oil. Wen Jiabao, China’s premier from 2003 to 2013, made electric cars one of his highest priorities. In 2007, he reached outside the Communist Party to choose Wan Gang, a Shanghai-born former Audi engineer in Germany, as the country’s minister of science and technology. Mr. Wen gave him essentially a blank check to make China the world’s leader in electric cars.
中國在過去 15 年多投資巨額資金發展電動汽車，以減少對進口石油的依賴。溫家寶，中國總理從 2003 年到 2013 年，將電動汽車列為其最重要的優先事項之一。2007 年，他跨越共產黨外部，選擇了在德國出生的上海人、前奧迪工程師萬鋼擔任中國科技部長。溫先生基本上給了他一張空白支票，讓中國成為世界電動汽車的領導者。
Now, half of China’s car buyers choose battery electric or plug-in hybrid cars. Until recently, buyers of electric cars also received large subsidies from the government. Carmakers have received low-interest-rate loans from state-controlled banks to build dozens of factories, as well as government tax breaks and cheap land and electricity. By one estimate, Beijing’s assistance to China’s electric car and battery sectors has been worth more than $230 billion since 2009 — one reason that the European Union has imposed anti-subsidy tariffs.
現在，中國一半的汽車買家選擇電池電動或插電式混合動力汽車。直到最近，電動汽車的買家也從政府獲得了大量補助金。汽車製造商從國有控股銀行獲得低利率貸款，用於建設數十家工廠，還有政府減稅和廉價土地和電力。據估計，自 2009 年以來，北京對中國的電動汽車和電池行業的援助價值超過 2300 億美元，這是歐盟對中國實施反補貼關稅的原因之一。
China is projected to continue its heavy investment and retain its lead in electric vehicles.
中國預計將繼續大力投資並保持在電動車領域的領先地位。
Unloading excess gasoline cars at steep discounts
以優惠價格卸載過剩的汽油車
Because of the shift to electric cars in China, carmakers have been left to slash prices on unwanted gasoline cars and unload them overseas. Last year, most of the cars China sold abroad were traditional gasoline engine cars.
由於中國轉向電動汽車，汽車製造商不得不大幅降低不受歡迎的汽油車價格並將其出口。去年，中國出口的大部分汽車是傳統汽油引擎車。
Russia was the leading destination last year. Sales surged after the Ukraine invasion, partly because of the departure of Western brands from the Russian market.
去年俄羅斯是最受歡迎的目的地。烏克蘭入侵後，銷售激增，部分原因是西方品牌退出俄羅斯市場。
China’s gasoline cars were also favored by middle- and lower-income countries in Latin America and the Middle East for being cost-effective.
中國的汽車也受到拉丁美洲和中東地區中低收入國家的青睞，因為它們具有成本效益。
China has more than 100 factories with a combined capacity to build close to 40 million internal combustion engine cars a year. That is more than twice as many as people in China want to buy, and sales of these cars are dropping fast as electric vehicles become more popular.
中國有 100 多家工廠，總產能可建造接近 4000 萬輛內燃機汽車。這比中國人想要購買的車輛多出兩倍以上，隨著電動車變得更受歡迎，這些車的銷量正在迅速下降。
As a result, some assembly plants have been mothballed or shuttered. But automakers, reluctant to close facilities, are selling many gasoline-burning cars overseas at steep discounts.
因此，一些裝配廠已經被關閉或停工。但汽車製造商不願關閉設施，正在以大幅折扣價格將許多汽油車出口到海外。
Will tariffs be able to slow China down?
關稅能夠減緩中國的發展速度嗎？
The flood of Chinese cars into the global market has raised alarms around the world. In addition to the European Union, governments elsewhere have levied extra tariffs on electric cars from China, on top of baseline taxes already applied to all imported vehicles.
中國汽車湧入全球市場引起了世界各地的警報。除了歐盟外，其他國家政府對來自中國的電動汽車徵收額外關稅，除了已經對所有進口車輛徵收的基本稅款。
Additional tariffs levied on Chinese electric cars in major world markets
在主要世界市場對中國電動汽車徵收的額外關稅
Note: Chart does not show baseline taxes or favored rates dependent on manufacturer or other compliance. India and Brazil levy tariffs on imported electric cars from all countries. Turkey levies the same tariff on all cars from China.
注意：圖表不顯示基準稅率或依製造商或其他遵循情況而定的優惠稅率。印度和巴西對所有國家進口的電動汽車徵收關稅。土耳其對所有來自中國的汽車徵收相同的關稅。
The countries’ tariffs come in different forms. The U.S. government levied a flat tax. The European Union calculated a rate for each automaker based on the estimated subsidies the company has received from Chinese government agencies and state-controlled banks. India and Brazil are also aiming to protect their local industries.
各國的關稅形式各異。美國政府徵收了一項固定稅。歐盟根據每家汽車製造商從中國政府機構和國有銀行獲得的估計補貼，計算了一個稅率。印度和巴西也致力於保護本地產業。
But tariffs may not fully offset Chinese carmakers’ competitive lead. Chinese companies offer cars with similar quality to their global rivals and at lower cost. Analysts at the bank UBS calculate that cars made by BYD cost 30 percent less to assemble than similar cars made by Western companies. Some of the biggest savings for Chinese companies are on batteries. China controls practically the entire supply chain for making electric car batteries.
但關稅可能無法完全抵銷中國汽車製造商的競爭優勢。中國公司提供與全球競爭對手相似品質且成本更低的汽車。瑞銀分析師計算，比亞迪生產的汽車組裝成本比西方公司生產的類似汽車低 30％。中國公司的一些最大節省來自電池。中國幾乎控制了製造電動車電池的整個供應鏈。
Production costs are much lower in China
在中國，生產成本要低得多
Source: UBS
Note: Models compared are of similar size and function. Prices are in U.S. dollars, for models from 2021.
With the advantages China wields in automaking, even the world’s intensifying pushback is unlikely to stop the country from dominating the industry for many years to come.
憑藉中國在汽車製造業所擁有的優勢，即使全球對其進行的反彈日益加劇，也不太可能阻止這個國家在未來許多年內主導該行業。
BYD electric cars stacked for loading onto a ship for export at Taicang Port in Suzhou.
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
比亞迪電動汽車堆疊在蘇州太倉港準備裝載到船上出口。法新社 - 盖蒂图片
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