Can Donald Trump maintain Joe Biden’s network of Asian alliances?
唐纳德·特朗普能否维持乔·拜登的亚洲联盟网络?
Discipline and creativity will help, but so will China’s actions
纪律和创造力会有所帮助,但中国的行动也会有所帮助

AN ATTEMPT TO stage a self-coup in a democratic country—and an American ally to boot—should be the sort of thing that causes the resident of the White House to have some strong views. Yet when Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea’s president, imposed martial law on his country early last month, President Joe Biden stayed mum. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said events in South Korea raised “alarm bells”. It took more than a month before Mr Sullivan could bring himself to call it “wrong”.
在一个民主国家——而且还是美国的盟友——试图发动自我政变应该会引起白宫居民的强烈不满。然而,当韩国总统尹石烈上月初对韩国实施戒严令时,总统乔·拜登却保持沉默。他的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文表示,韩国发生的事件敲响了“警钟”。沙利文花了一个多月的时间才让自己承认这是“错误的”。
在一个民主国家——而且还是美国的盟友——试图发动自我政变应该会引起白宫居民的强烈不满。然而,当韩国总统尹石烈上月初对韩国实施戒严令时,总统乔·拜登却保持沉默。他的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文表示,韩国发生的事件敲响了“警钟”。沙利文花了一个多月的时间才让自己承认这是“错误的”。
Why the reserve? Mr Yoon went further than any leader in South Korea’s modern democratic history in reconciling his country with Japan, a development sought by American strategists for decades. A summit between leaders of the three countries in 2023 seemed like a breakthrough. Amid the uncertainty around Mr Yoon’s future in the immediate aftermath of the coup, the Biden administration hedged its bets.
为什么要储备?在韩国与日本和解方面,尹先生比韩国现代民主史上的任何一位领导人都走得更远,这是美国战略家几十年来所寻求的发展方向。 2023 年三个国家领导人举行峰会似乎是一个突破。政变发生后,尹先生的未来充满不确定性,拜登政府采取了两面下注的方式。
为什么要储备?在韩国与日本和解方面,尹先生比韩国现代民主史上的任何一位领导人都走得更远,这是美国战略家几十年来所寻求的发展方向。 2023 年三个国家领导人举行峰会似乎是一个突破。政变发生后,尹先生的未来充满不确定性,拜登政府采取了两面下注的方式。
Now the trilateral seems more likely to break down. Its close association with the polarising Mr Yoon had made it unpopular in South Korea from the start. After his failed putsch, the stigma will be even greater. Any successor is likely to at least slow, if not reverse, the changes that America had so desired.
现在三边似乎更有可能破裂。它与两极分化的尹先生的密切联系使其从一开始就在韩国不受欢迎。政变失败后,耻辱会更大。任何继任者都可能至少减缓(如果不是逆转的话)美国所渴望的变革。
现在三边似乎更有可能破裂。它与两极分化的尹先生的密切联系使其从一开始就在韩国不受欢迎。政变失败后,耻辱会更大。任何继任者都可能至少减缓(如果不是逆转的话)美国所渴望的变革。
The link between South Korea and Japan was to be one strip in what Mr Sullivan has called a “latticework” of new, overlapping partnerships among American allies and security partners in Asia. This, he explains, differs from the traditional “hub and spoke” structure of security co-operation in the region, with America at its centre. The idea is for countries to reinforce each other, rather than simply rely on America. It is likely to be remembered as among Mr Biden’s most important legacies in Asia.
沙利文先生将韩国和日本之间的联系视为美国盟友和亚洲安全伙伴之间新的、重叠的伙伴关系“网格”中的一个部分。他解释说,这不同于该地区以美国为中心的传统“轴辐”安全合作结构。这个想法是让各国相互加强,而不是简单地依赖美国。它可能会被视为拜登在亚洲最重要的遗产之一。
沙利文先生将韩国和日本之间的联系视为美国盟友和亚洲安全伙伴之间新的、重叠的伙伴关系“网格”中的一个部分。他解释说,这不同于该地区以美国为中心的传统“轴辐”安全合作结构。这个想法是让各国相互加强,而不是简单地依赖美国。它可能会被视为拜登在亚洲最重要的遗产之一。
The success of the policy is visible in the partnerships that have emerged in recent years. Japan and Australia are working closer than ever before. The Philippines has signed new security deals with both of them. The Quad, a security grouping that brings together the leaders of America, Australia, India and Japan, usually annually, has been given new energy and elevated in importance to the level of summit meetings. A submarine-building pact, known as AUKUS, brings Britain into the picture.
该政策的成功从近年来出现的伙伴关系中可见一斑。日本和澳大利亚的合作比以往任何时候都更加密切。菲律宾与两国签署了新的安全协议。四国集团是一个安全组织,通常每年都会召集美国、澳大利亚、印度和日本的领导人,现在它被赋予了新的活力,其重要性也提升到了峰会级别。一项名为 AUKUS 的潜艇建造协议将英国纳入其中。
该政策的成功从近年来出现的伙伴关系中可见一斑。日本和澳大利亚的合作比以往任何时候都更加密切。菲律宾与两国签署了新的安全协议。四国集团是一个安全组织,通常每年都会召集美国、澳大利亚、印度和日本的领导人,现在它被赋予了新的活力,其重要性也提升到了峰会级别。一项名为 AUKUS 的潜艇建造协议将英国纳入其中。
Yet the South Korean setback exposes a problem with the way Mr Biden and his team have woven their latticework. Though he wooed leaders like Mr Yoon, he tended to alienate their political opponents. Some left-wing legislators in South Korea say they got the cold shoulder when they tried to talk about security policy with Mr Biden’s people. The same lawmakers may soon be in power in Seoul.
然而,韩国的挫折暴露了拜登及其团队编织网格方式的问题。尽管他拉拢尹先生这样的领导人,但他往往会疏远他们的政治对手。韩国的一些左翼议员表示,当他们试图与拜登的人民讨论安全政策时,他们遭到了冷落。这些议员可能很快就会在首尔掌权。
然而,韩国的挫折暴露了拜登及其团队编织网格方式的问题。尽管他拉拢尹先生这样的领导人,但他往往会疏远他们的政治对手。韩国的一些左翼议员表示,当他们试图与拜登的人民讨论安全政策时,他们遭到了冷落。这些议员可能很快就会在首尔掌权。
Another potential problem is the latticework’s complexity. A better metaphor might be a mechanical watch, with its many moving parts of varying importance. Mr Biden’s aides argue it will keep ticking on, regardless of who is in the White House, powered by anxiety about China’s rise. Others worry that without constant American attention and maintenance, it will begin to fall apart.
另一个潜在的问题是网格的复杂性。更好的比喻可能是机械表,其许多运动部件的重要性各不相同。拜登的助手认为,无论谁入主白宫,在对中国崛起的焦虑推动下,这种情况都会继续下去。其他人担心,如果没有美国持续的关注和维护,它就会开始崩溃。
另一个潜在的问题是网格的复杂性。更好的比喻可能是机械表,其许多运动部件的重要性各不相同。拜登的助手认为,无论谁入主白宫,在对中国崛起的焦虑推动下,这种情况都会继续下去。其他人担心,如果没有美国持续的关注和维护,它就会开始崩溃。
Which is the more likely under Donald Trump? The president-elect has little patience for complications, leaving them to his advisers. In the first term they worked to turn Mr Trump’s instincts on Asia into a coherent approach, reframing American policy in the region around what they called “competition” with China. The new paradigm stuck. But their capacity to carry it out was limited because many Asia-policy roles went unfilled for long periods. Stray interventions by the president made it difficult to focus on what mattered.
唐纳德·特朗普领导下哪个更有可能?这位候任总统对复杂情况缺乏耐心,将其留给了他的顾问。在第一任期内,他们致力于将特朗普对亚洲的本能转化为连贯的方针,围绕他们所谓的与中国的“竞争”重新制定美国在该地区的政策。新的范式被卡住了。但他们执行这一任务的能力有限,因为许多亚洲政策角色长期空缺。总统的杂乱干预使人们很难专注于重要的事情。
唐纳德·特朗普领导下哪个更有可能?这位候任总统对复杂情况缺乏耐心,将其留给了他的顾问。在第一任期内,他们致力于将特朗普对亚洲的本能转化为连贯的方针,围绕他们所谓的与中国的“竞争”重新制定美国在该地区的政策。新的范式被卡住了。但他们执行这一任务的能力有限,因为许多亚洲政策角色长期空缺。总统的杂乱干预使人们很难专注于重要的事情。
A more disciplined second term might let Mr Trump maintain the machine. A creative team might even add to it. There was some of this in the first term. Mike Pompeo, Mr Trump’s secretary of state, joined the first meeting since 2007 of foreign ministers from Quad countries. Mr Trump also put some life into diplomacy in the Pacific, becoming the first president to host the leaders of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau—all American protectorates—at the White House. The Biden administration built upon these initiatives.
更加自律的第二任期可能会让特朗普继续维持这台机器。创意团队甚至可能会添加其中。第一学期就有一些这样的情况。特朗普的国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥 (Mike Pompeo) 参加了自 2007 年以来首次四国外交部长会议。特朗普还为太平洋地区的外交注入了活力,成为第一位在白宫接待马绍尔群岛、密克罗尼西亚和帕劳(所有美国保护国)领导人的总统。拜登政府以这些举措为基础。
更加自律的第二任期可能会让特朗普继续维持这台机器。创意团队甚至可能会添加其中。第一学期就有一些这样的情况。特朗普的国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥 (Mike Pompeo) 参加了自 2007 年以来首次四国外交部长会议。特朗普还为太平洋地区的外交注入了活力,成为第一位在白宫接待马绍尔群岛、密克罗尼西亚和帕劳(所有美国保护国)领导人的总统。拜登政府以这些举措为基础。
Mr Biden’s advisers wave away concerns about their successors’ diplomatic finesse. In fact, they refuse to claim credit for the latticework themselves. They attribute it instead to their Chinese counterparts, whose audacity alarms America’s allies and has them drawing closer to each other. The system, they say, works even in the absence of disciplined American leadership—provided that China gives it a kick now and then. ■
拜登的顾问们消除了对其继任者外交技巧的担忧。事实上,他们拒绝承认网格结构本身的功劳。相反,他们将其归咎于中国同行,中国同行的大胆行为令美国的盟友感到震惊,并促使它们彼此走得更近。他们说,即使在缺乏纪律严明的美国领导的情况下,这个体系也能发挥作用——只要中国时不时地给它一点刺激。 ■
拜登的顾问们消除了对其继任者外交技巧的担忧。事实上,他们拒绝承认网格结构本身的功劳。相反,他们将其归咎于中国同行,中国同行的大胆行为令美国的盟友感到震惊,并促使它们彼此走得更近。他们说,即使在缺乏纪律严明的美国领导的情况下,这个体系也能发挥作用——只要中国时不时地给它一点刺激。 ■
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This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline “A fine mesh”
Asia January 18th 2025

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