Can Israel’s economy survive an all-out war with Hizbullah?
以色列经济能否在与真主党的全面战争中幸存下来？

Israel’s economy should have been trundling towards recovery. After all, many of the 300,000 workers who left their jobs to fight have now returned to offices, factories and farms. Instead, a difficult situation is becoming ever more acute. GDP growth came to just 0.7% between April and June, on an annualised basis, some 5.2 percentage points below economists’ expectations, according to Bloomberg, a news agency. On September 16th Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, was forced to ask legislators to approve an emergency deficit increase. It was the second time he had made such a request this year.
Israel 的经济本应步履蹒跚地走向复苏。毕竟，300,000 名辞职去战斗的工人中，许多人现在已经回到了办公室、工厂和农场。相反，困难的局势正变得越来越严峻。据彭博社（Bloomberg）报道，4月至6月期间，GDP年化增长率仅为0.7%，比经济学家的预期低约5.2个百分点。9 月 16 日，以色列财政部长 Bezalel Smotrich 被迫要求立法者批准紧急增加赤字。这是他今年第二次提出这样的要求。

Mr Smotrich’s profligacy worries investors. So does the possibility of fiercer fighting. On September 23rd Israel launched airstrikes over the Lebanese border, killing 558 people, according to local officials. This followed incidents where pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hizbullah exploded, killing 39 people, as well as months of rocket attacks by the Lebanese militia group on Israeli settlements. Money has begun to flee the country. Between May and July outflows from Israeli banks to foreign institutions doubled, compared with the same period last year, to $2bn. The country’s economic policymakers are more worried than they have been since the start of the conflict.
斯莫特里奇的挥霍让投资者感到担忧。更激烈的战斗的可能性也是如此。据当地官员称，9 月 23 日，以色列对黎巴嫩边境发动空袭，造成 558 人死亡。在此之前，真主党使用的寻呼机和对讲机爆炸，造成 39 人死亡，黎巴嫩民兵组织对以色列定居点发动了数月的火箭袭击。金钱已经开始逃离这个国家。5 月至 7 月期间，以色列银行流向外国机构的资金流出与去年同期相比翻了一番，达到 20 亿美元。该国的经济政策制定者比冲突爆发以来更加担忧。

Any war-time economy rests on a knife edge: a government must fund its armed forces, often through deficit spending, while ensuring it remains robust enough to clear its debts when peace arrives. The nightmare scenario for Israel is a conflict that spreads into Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the country’s commercial centres. But even a less intense war in which fighting is limited to the country’s north may be sufficient to tip its economy over the edge.
任何战时经济都处于刀刃上：政府必须为其武装部队提供资金，通常是通过赤字支出，同时确保它保持足够的实力，以便在和平到来时清偿债务。以色列的噩梦场景是一场蔓延到该国商业中心耶路撒冷和特拉维夫的冲突。但即使是一场不那么激烈的战争，如果战争仅限于该国北部，也可能足以使其经济陷入困境。

Israel’s free-spending government is not helping matters. In March, when the armed forces hoped for a ceasefire by July, generals reckoned they would need 60bn shekels ($16bn, or 3% of Israeli GDP) on top of their normal budget, and then a permanent rise of 30bn shekels a year to cope with the new security situation. Since then, as fighting has continued to rage, deficit forecasts have continued to rise. The deficit is now expected to hit 8.1% of GDP this year—almost three times as much as had been anticipated before the war. With hostilities set to spread further, it will probably grow wider still.
以色列的自由支出政府无济于事。今年 3 月，当武装部队希望在 7 月之前停火时，将军们估计，他们将在正常预算的基础上需要 600 亿谢克尔（160 亿美元，或以色列 GDP 的 3%），然后每年永久增加 300 亿谢克尔来应对新的安全局势。从那时起，随着战斗的持续激烈，赤字预测持续上升。现在预计今年的赤字将达到 GDP 的 8.1%，几乎是战前预期的三倍。随着敌对行动的进一步蔓延，它可能会变得更广泛。

What will this mean for Israeli policymakers? In January the country’s debts came to 62% of GDP, well below average in the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries. As such, Mr Smotrich has a bit of breathing room. But only a bit. If fighting continues next year, the financial situation will deteriorate. Bondholders want reassurance that there is space left for more war spending, so have a lower ceiling for acceptable debts than in similar countries. Rating agencies are getting nervous, too. Fitch and Moody’s both say that they will probably downgrade Israel again after already doing so once this year.
这对以色列政策制定者意味着什么？今年 1 月，该国的债务达到 GDP 的 62%，远低于经合组织 （OECD） 的平均水平，而经合组织是一个以富裕国家为主的俱乐部。因此，斯莫特里奇先生有一点喘息的空间。但只有一点点。如果明年战斗继续下去，财务状况将恶化。债券持有人希望得到保证，即有空间用于更多的战争支出，因此可接受的债务上限低于同类国家。评级机构也越来越紧张。惠誉和穆迪都表示，他们可能会再次下调以色列的评级，而今年已经下调了一次。

Mr Smotrich—a West Bank settler whose party is on Israel’s far-right—makes the problem worse. Nobody believes he will ask the army to keep costs down. He has also declined to take other measures to rein in the deficit, either by cutting spending elsewhere or raising taxes. Israel’s expansive welfare state remains intact. The ultra-Orthodox population and settlers, Mr Smotrich’s allies, have benefited from more subsidies and handouts to keep men at home. Mr Smotrich promises $35bn in savings next year, but he has not said where most of that will come from.
斯莫特里奇先生是约旦河西岸的定居者，他的政党是以色列的极右翼，这使问题变得更糟。没有人相信他会要求军队降低成本。他还拒绝采取其他措施来控制赤字，要么削减其他地方的支出，要么提高税收。以色列广阔的福利国家仍然完好无损。极端正统派的人口和定居者是斯莫特里奇的盟友，他们从更多的补贴和施舍中受益，让男性留在家里。斯莫特里奇承诺明年将节省 350 亿美元，但他尚未透露其中大部分将来自何处。

Stronger growth would ease the pain. Although reservists have returned to work and consumption has returned to pre-war levels, Israel’s economy remains smaller than on the eve of war. Mr Smotrich has cushioned the least productive parts of society and starved industry of resources. The labour market is ultra-tight, with the unemployment rate at just 2.7%. Firms are struggling to fill vacancies and Israel’s small high-tech companies are under strain. They are losing out on funding owing to the war, warns Startup Nation, a think-tank.
更强壮的生长会减轻痛苦。尽管预备役人员已经重返工作岗位，消费量也恢复到战前水平，但以色列的经济规模仍然比战争前夕小。斯莫特里奇先生为社会生产力最低的部分提供了缓冲，并使工业资源匮乏。劳动力市场非常紧张，失业率仅为 2.7%。公司正在努力填补空缺，以色列的小型高科技公司面临压力。由于战争，他们正在失去资金，智库 Startup Nation 警告说。

Some 80,000 Palestinian workers were denied permits after October 7th, and have never been replaced. As a consequence, the construction industry is 40% smaller than it was this time last year, greatly impeding housebuilding and repairs. For now, the biggest impact has been on inflation, which hit an annual rate of 3.6% in August, having accelerated over the summer. Should the scale of Hizbullah attacks increase, the lack of construction workers will become an even bigger problem.
大约 80,000 名巴勒斯坦工人在 10 月 7 日之后被拒绝获得许可，并且从未被替换过。因此，建筑业比去年同期缩小了 40%，极大地阻碍了房屋建设和维修。目前，最大的影响是对通货膨胀的影响，8 月份的年率达到 3.6%，并在夏季加速。如果真主党袭击的规模扩大，建筑工人的缺乏将成为一个更大的问题。

Investors are unsure about Israel’s ability to bounce back. The shekel is volatile, Israeli banks are experiencing capital flight and the three biggest report a hefty increase in customers asking to transfer savings to other countries or to index them to the dollar. Although inflation remains above target, the central bank chose to stick to its previous policy rate at its August monetary-policy meeting, for fear of derailing the recovery.
投资者不确定以色列是否有能力反弹。谢克尔波动，以色列银行正在经历资本外逃，三大银行报告称，要求将储蓄转移到其他国家或将其与美元挂钩的客户大幅增加。尽管通胀率仍高于目标，但央行在 8 月的货币政策会议上选择坚持之前的政策利率，因为担心破坏复苏。

Then there is the nightmare scenario. Few investors are preparing for a war that would engulf all of Israel, including Jerusalem or Tel Aviv—even though Hizbullah may be capable of launching such an attack. Under such a scenario, economic growth would be hit hard, perhaps even harder than after October 7th. Army outgoings would soar. Fleeing investors would probably topple banks and send the shekel plummeting, forcing the Bank of Israel to intervene and spend its reserves.
然后是噩梦般的场景。很少有投资者为一场席卷整个以色列（包括耶路撒冷或特拉维夫）的战争做准备——尽管真主党可能有能力发动这样的袭击。在这种情况下，经济增长将受到沉重打击，甚至可能比 10 月 7 日之后更严重。军队的支出将飙升。逃离的投资者可能会推翻银行，使谢克尔暴跌，迫使以色列银行进行干预并花掉其储备金。

Whatever happens, Israeli economists are resigned to things getting worse. Even Mr Smotrich, generally a bullish type, is now emitting an air of exhaustion: “We are in the longest and most expensive war in Israel’s history.” Previous conflicts have ended in economic disaster for Israel. Do not be surprised if this one does, too. ■
无论发生什么，以色列经济学家都对情况变得更糟无奈。就连通常持乐观态度的斯莫特里奇先生，现在也散发出疲惫不堪的气息：“我们正在进行以色列历史上持续时间最长、代价最高的战争。之前的冲突都以以色列的经济灾难告终。如果这个也是这样，请不要感到惊讶。■